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LeGarrette Blount signs with NE (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Raider Nation
- Start date
Team Smokin'
Footballguy
Blount sits plugged into my flex roster spot and he keeps producing. I felt like I was walking gently on broken glass with my bare feet every week, but at what point is he just a confident play? The season is close to being half over and barring an injury Blount seems to be a weekly play no matter what the matchup says. I was always looking to improve if possible, but as of now he stays put.
Ned Ryerson
Footballguy
12 TDs...unbelievable. I keep thinking that the gravy train is going to end, but every week, he finds a way. Just gauging his value ROY? Top 10 for trading purposes?
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Not at all. The specter of Dion Lewis hanging over his head has dragged his value into the mud. It's completely impossible to predict ROS usage.
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
Traded Blount+Marvin Jones+Dak for Matt Ryan (other RBs are DJ, Ware, Booker, and Lewis).
With Lewis hanging no one wanted to give up much of anything. I'm starting to regret the trade a bit after this weekend, but the Matt Ryan's week 15/16 match ups had me chubbs. Hopefully it pays off.
With Lewis hanging no one wanted to give up much of anything. I'm starting to regret the trade a bit after this weekend, but the Matt Ryan's week 15/16 match ups had me chubbs. Hopefully it pays off.
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
Lewis will hurt Whites production, if Blount's production falls off its because his pace was probably unsustainable and Lewis had nothing to do with it.
I do like him as a RB1 at least going forward. The Pats want to pound the ball to force teams to respect the run. Bennett and Gronk are great run blocking TEs and the results have been there. They might have even won last night if Blount had his 4th td.
I do like him as a RB1 at least going forward. The Pats want to pound the ball to force teams to respect the run. Bennett and Gronk are great run blocking TEs and the results have been there. They might have even won last night if Blount had his 4th td.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It's true that Blount still has value as the hammer on the league's top offense, but I wouldn't be so convinced that Lewis/White are just interchangeable pieces that don't affect Blount.
Lewis is a much better player than White. That means two things. Firstly, that the Pats passing set is better meaning they're more likely to use it more often. Secondly, that the Pats will leave Lewis on the field more often even in running sets. White has almost no carries on 1st or 2nd down. He's a 3rd down scat back. Lewis is not limited in that way and many of his carries have come on 1st or 2nd down where White was no threat to Blount. Lewis has gotten literally more than triple the carries that White has per game.
It's not just theory, the stats back it up. Blount has played a higher percentage of snaps when White is the other back compared to Lewis, and has gotten more carries per game when White was the other back compared to Lewis. He still has good value and can certainly put up points with Lewis out there, but I think that the notion that Lewis will have no effect on him is a fool's assertion.
All of this of course assumes that Lewis doesn't come back as a shell of himself due to the injury.
Lewis is a much better player than White. That means two things. Firstly, that the Pats passing set is better meaning they're more likely to use it more often. Secondly, that the Pats will leave Lewis on the field more often even in running sets. White has almost no carries on 1st or 2nd down. He's a 3rd down scat back. Lewis is not limited in that way and many of his carries have come on 1st or 2nd down where White was no threat to Blount. Lewis has gotten literally more than triple the carries that White has per game.
It's not just theory, the stats back it up. Blount has played a higher percentage of snaps when White is the other back compared to Lewis, and has gotten more carries per game when White was the other back compared to Lewis. He still has good value and can certainly put up points with Lewis out there, but I think that the notion that Lewis will have no effect on him is a fool's assertion.
All of this of course assumes that Lewis doesn't come back as a shell of himself due to the injury.
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jeaton6
Footballguy
Huge overpay. Ryan's regression next year will have you regretting this one for a longtime.
jeaton6
Footballguy
jeaton6
Footballguy
There may be some validity to this that said this is really the first year the Pats have realized what they have in Blount. 10 rush/game over last 3 years and 20 rush/game this year. I doubt they change things up much when Lewis is back. I could just as easily assert with Lewis out there it will make Blount more difficult to defend. That was certainly the case last year. His stats nose dived last year once Lewis was hurt and White was in.
RUSF18
Footballguy
I see no reason why the Pats will have Lewis creep into Blount's role more than a nominal amount. They're more likely to focus on trying to keep him healthy in the limited role he usually has. To increase his usage when coming back from injury, knowing how important he is to getting that offense to play at its highest level, wouldn't be very wise.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Traded him for Prosise in week 2. Could have used several weeks of Blount but Prosise coming on is helping.
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
Redraft.jeaton6 said:
WheelsUp
Footballguy
"Posted October 4 , WheelsUp said:
I can argue Blount will get more chances to produce yards to grind out games that Brady already put away and he will get more chances at TDs too."
"FreeBaGeL Posted October 4 (edited) · Report post
I mean you can argue it, but it's tough to see/show in practice. The numbers are pretty clear on this one.
Blount has averaged 22-88-1 per game this year with Brady out. He averaged 13-58-0.5 last year with Brady playing."
AND
"Anarchy99 Posted October 4 · Report post
Blount has played 38 regular season and post season games with Brady at QB. He scored at least 1 TD in 13 of them.
Fantasy wise, in the 33 games playing with Brady in the regular season since 2013.
In that 3 year time frame (2013-2015), of RBs that played in at least 20 games, count only his games in NE in the regular season, Blouont averaged 8.71 ppg in 0 ppr leagues (ranking RB29) and 9.08 in 1 PPR leagues (ranking RB39).
Unless the Pats radically go in a different direction, I really don't see how Brady coming back will improve the numbers Blount has produced so far this year."
---Scored in every game since and has 18 carries in all but one game. While his usage didnt go up, it didnt go down and his value certainly did go up and his TDs did.
I can argue Blount will get more chances to produce yards to grind out games that Brady already put away and he will get more chances at TDs too."
"FreeBaGeL Posted October 4 (edited) · Report post
I mean you can argue it, but it's tough to see/show in practice. The numbers are pretty clear on this one.
Blount has averaged 22-88-1 per game this year with Brady out. He averaged 13-58-0.5 last year with Brady playing."
AND
"Anarchy99 Posted October 4 · Report post
Blount has played 38 regular season and post season games with Brady at QB. He scored at least 1 TD in 13 of them.
Fantasy wise, in the 33 games playing with Brady in the regular season since 2013.
In that 3 year time frame (2013-2015), of RBs that played in at least 20 games, count only his games in NE in the regular season, Blouont averaged 8.71 ppg in 0 ppr leagues (ranking RB29) and 9.08 in 1 PPR leagues (ranking RB39).
Unless the Pats radically go in a different direction, I really don't see how Brady coming back will improve the numbers Blount has produced so far this year."
---Scored in every game since and has 18 carries in all but one game. While his usage didnt go up, it didnt go down and his value certainly did go up and his TDs did.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
It depends what numbers you are comparing. At the time people were discussing Blount, he was averaging 25 carries a game to start the season. The last 6 games his carries have dropped to 17 and change per game. His yardage totals and ypc (mostly in the 2's and 3's in ypc each game) with Brady have been mostly poor. True, he's been getting in the end zone, which is the most important thing, but he is almost the definition of a TD dependent fantasy scorer.
Shutout
Footballguy
TDs are always fluke so while things are looking nice in recent memory, owners have to be willing to live (and die) with those playoff weeks when it's going to be 11 carries for 36 and nothing else and Brady throws all over the place.
I think it serves well to remember just how much Lewis had eliminated Blount's ff relevance last year when he was playing. He was on the field on running downs also because he can actually run, although we don't think of that first. Blount, like all big backs, will always have those games here or there where the game plan simply begs to be used a lot and the numbers are good but if Lewis is healthy, he takes away snaps and if he is healthy and productive, we are going to be looking back at some games and realizing just how little Blount was a part of it.
I know some people will think that just sounds crazy but he is truly in an outlier situation. He's scoring a td every week. That simply never holds up for players unless he just happens to be in the midst of an all time great season. But when you look at him normally, I think he's had something like 6 100 yards games in five year and three of those were his year (leaving a total of three over four Seasons) and he has already doubled his average TDs per year. I mean, I guess he could just be having this year's version of an Allen hurns year and if he was on the Ravens or jets or someone I'd say "okay, just take it while you got it" but this is the Patriots and they are never to be trusted with rbs.
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Fireballer
Footballguy
Does this thread need to be retitled "Blount owner pitty party"? Lewis definitely cutting into Blount's production. Glad I have Lewis, but damn it was nice riding Blount for 10 weeks.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Blount has had plenty of action. Had a long TD called back due to a hold.
Shutout
Footballguy
rose colored glasses, my man. EVERYONE runs big on San Fran. But if you are watching this game, you see that Brady is back to doing exactly what they did last year when Lewis was healthy. They are allowing Lewis to run designed run plays and he is in on the RZ plays. Most damning of all is look at how many of these designed plays are going to Lewis and White...that is their offense now. push wide and shallow and use th mismatch while opening up the seams for Gronk and Bennett. That's the plan.
I said a few days ago that TDs are fluky and Blount is enjoying an outlier period and there will come those 11/37 days. Well, today is one of those days. About 67 yards as we speak. Blount will have his days but the every week opportunity is out the window now.
MaxThreshold
Footballguy
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
I don't disagree in the long run. I just don't think the sky is falling for Blount owners. But I get that he is back to a flex play.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Blount still had 19/124. While Lewis did more in the run game vs what White had been doing and the combined targets were up for White/Lewis vs White alone in previous weeks some of this could have been due to game plan without Gronk. There's a reason why the Pats usually go run heavy late in the season and in the playoffs and lean so much on LG. They've finally just done it the entire season now.
I'd like to see usage when the full complement of weapons are playing over a few games to declare LGs every week opp gone. 12.4 points is solid PPR or non PPR outing.
Skoo
Footballguy
...and this is why you wait until the game is over to post about a players' day.
How many other RBs ran for over 100 yards yesterday?
With they way the Pats are beating people, I don't think garbage time opportunities are going to be an issue.
I think the exact opposite is going to happen.
If you look at NE's schedule it's packed with stiff D lines: NYJ, LA, BALT, DEN, NYJ
Enter D. Lewis.
Blount will still get his share but something tells me his value just peaked.
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
You did. Mike Evans has a killer playoff schedule. Blount's value is going to decline IMO.
Shutout
Footballguy
He will always have his days but the final numbers for yesterday might mislead a person if they didn't watch the flow of the game. Blount was looking at much less statistically but had the benefit of wearing the worthless Niners out the entire last quarter.
I wouldn't say the Patriots "usually go run heavy late in the season". They are always a team playing the matchup and the situation. The weather helps them tend to run based on where they play and who they play, but (my opinion), its not by design that they run. Honestly, you just never know with the Pats. Brady seems to do very well in otherwise bad weather games. I'm just saying it is a crapshoot.
But based on what we saw yesterday, what I think is worth paying attention to is that they were willing to give a guy in his 1st game back in over a year, a decent amount of true running plays. That comes at the expense of Blount. He's had the entire gig to himself. Based on how the Pats set up and play, and based on the high number of TDs Blount has had this year, it just seems the law of averages is going to swing. The Pats are very capable of scoring 10, 20 yards out (especially in short screens and slants) and that lessens some of those 1,2,3 yard GL plays that have went to Blount exclusively up to this point. Just one guy's opinion.
Shutout
Footballguy
I don't wait until after the game. I made my original point a week or so ago and the one yesterday was a reply that I made during halftime or so. But it is more than just finger pointing at a single game. In my post a few days ago I drew reference to Blount since 2013 and the Patriots since 2011. this isn't a knee jerk thought of the week. This is based on watching the Patriots for many years. It's just their type of game when they have all players available. they love to spread you out wide and wear you out with the screens and slants and open up Gronk (and Now Bennett). Of course, there is always a role for Blount. I just don't think its going to be to the tune of 12 TDs in 10 games, etc. I think it's time to temper the expectations going forward.
Shutout
Footballguy
No problem...today. The problem is going to be in the coming weeks when people in FF playoffs get upset when he turns out 12/47 and then act like they can't possibly understand how it occurred. People need to realize that Blount is a weapons of convenience to be used at will for the Patriots, not an essential primary weapon.
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
Blount is the top 5 RB obviously most likely to regress. I don't think anyone is arguing against that. It's interesting to me how many people are fervent in their arguing that he's a sell high. He was a holding penalty away from 155 and a td yesterday. Bellicheck likes and trusts him. The Pats offense isn't going to just "fall off". The goaline and grind the game out rb is always going to have a role in this offense.
People have been saying sell high all year. It's almost to the point where hes a buy low because the perception is that he's going to fall off.
People have been saying sell high all year. It's almost to the point where hes a buy low because the perception is that he's going to fall off.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Isn't this the exact game script one would have expected? I don't have the advanced stats handy but hasn't he had this benefit regularly this season?
True but their Defense is struggling a bit and I think they are very well suited to grinding the clock out and reducing exposure to their Defense as well.
As another poster said most aren't arguing he won't regress but it's hard to see an epic fall that some here forsee.
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eh..I thought that about Evan's playoff schedule too, BUT NO defense has really shored up as of late. They're not nearly the sieve that they were to start the season. People are too slow to realize that but take a look at their last month. The numbers don't show it for week 11 but they gave cam newton FITS and he had a very mediocre game. Not so sure I like those week 14 and 16 matchups for Evans as much anymore. I traded blount bc I thought that Brady coming back would relegate him to a TD-dependent RB3 at best, but he's been a BEAST all season. He's RB5 in my league.RenegadeRoy said:
Fireballer
Footballguy
Whos rollin this cat out vs Balt? I think Hill vs Browns will be just as good if not better choice for me. I think Pats lose this one.
Fireballer
Footballguy
I think you gotta go Blount. Just too much West still for Balt. Blounts at home and hopefully he will get GL carries if there are any. West likely in at the stripe for Balt.
zamboni
Footballguy
With the Burkhead signing, that pretty much clinches Blount's time in NE. It's been awfully quiet on the Blount front. Seems some combination of the league (1) devaluing the RB position overall; (2) recognizing Blount's success as a product of the Pats system; (3) looking for too much money; and (4) the large influx of high quality RBs coming in the rookie draft.
All that said, I'm surprised that not one team has had him in for a visit. He might actually be a good pairing with McKinnon in Minnesota.
All that said, I'm surprised that not one team has had him in for a visit. He might actually be a good pairing with McKinnon in Minnesota.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
It is very odd, off the top of my head I would have thought these teams would have at least brought him in for a workout. Green Bay, Seattle, Detroit, Indy, Oakland.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Blount has been through free agency many times and has drawn close to no interest. This year is no different. I still think he could end up in NE. Burkhead will take Brandon Bolden's spot. Blount is now the wrong side of 30 and doesn't really block or catch, so there won't be people lining up to talk to him.
bostonfred
Footballguy
!He's a big back who isn't that great in the first half but gets better as the game goes on. He did great work in the red zone this year but this was obviously his career year.
I like him and wouldn't mind having him back but I imagine the pats would prefer to get him at a deep discount and preferably after week one so his contract isn't guaranteed. If I'm Blount I don't want that deal but I might take it in this market.
Personally I hope they don't resign him. I want Brady to set every record there is. He can set all the passing records this year and next. Single season touchdown is easier without Blount. Single season yardage is easier with three receiving backs. He's two good years away from breaking manning's career yardage and td records, and he needs to pass Brees too.
I think this is the year they say go for it Tom. He's playing his best ball, he's got arguably his best set of receivers, they just took the best corner from the best defensive team in the division while another team is rebuilding, they play the saints and panthers pass defenses... I'm really only worried about the Broncos in Denver, Atlanta in new england and maybe the Chiefs in new England but otherwise the schedule looks ripe for a victory lap.
I don't know if I'm alone among Patriots fans but I would much rather see him crush records this year just to say he can than to win another Superbowl. It's not close. I'd love to see both, and I think the career records are very likely to go down, but retaking the single season records and just sitting so far above everyone ever, it really feels like they have a chance and I'd love to see it. And Blount doesn't fit in that dream.
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I like him and wouldn't mind having him back but I imagine the pats would prefer to get him at a deep discount and preferably after week one so his contract isn't guaranteed. If I'm Blount I don't want that deal but I might take it in this market.
Personally I hope they don't resign him. I want Brady to set every record there is. He can set all the passing records this year and next. Single season touchdown is easier without Blount. Single season yardage is easier with three receiving backs. He's two good years away from breaking manning's career yardage and td records, and he needs to pass Brees too.
I think this is the year they say go for it Tom. He's playing his best ball, he's got arguably his best set of receivers, they just took the best corner from the best defensive team in the division while another team is rebuilding, they play the saints and panthers pass defenses... I'm really only worried about the Broncos in Denver, Atlanta in new england and maybe the Chiefs in new England but otherwise the schedule looks ripe for a victory lap.
I don't know if I'm alone among Patriots fans but I would much rather see him crush records this year just to say he can than to win another Superbowl. It's not close. I'd love to see both, and I think the career records are very likely to go down, but retaking the single season records and just sitting so far above everyone ever, it really feels like they have a chance and I'd love to see it. And Blount doesn't fit in that dream.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
In four years in NE, Blount has made $3 million for his 3,054 yfs and 35 TD in his 49 regular season games with a 4.3 ypc. He also chipped in 478 yfs and 8 TD in 8 playoff games. That works out to an average of 62 yfs and 0.75 TD per game (roughly 1,000 yards and 12 TD over a 16 game season).
Say what you want about Blount being bland, one dimensional, and not all that dynamic. But dollar for dollar he has been one of the team's top producers for the price.
Say what you want about Blount being bland, one dimensional, and not all that dynamic. But dollar for dollar he has been one of the team's top producers for the price.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
But bready lacy gets 5.5 mil for a year at 260 lbs.....forget "one of the teams top producers for the price", he's been a bargain league wide. He should get some looks after the draft, but I wouldn't be too surprised if he didn't get signed until a camp injury or maybe a couple weeks into the year. I wonder what his career would have looked like if he hadn't punched that guy on the field in college or get popped for weed.
