Let's name all the QBs... (1 Viewer)

[Jercules]

Seems like an odd thread title, but I've been so inundated with descriptions about certain QBs' likely breakout years that it makes me wonder.

For instance, the following is a list of QBs who could, potentially, have a strong fantasy season:

-Rodgers

-Brady

-Brees

-P.Manning

-Newton

-Stafford

-Vick

-E.Manning (so does another SB mean he's statistically better in 2012? Does Cruz change the equation?)

-Rivers (had his best year when Jackson was holding out. Why should things be different?)

-Romo (Bryant, Austin, Witten... Do things finally come together this year?)

-Schaub (don't forget about him! When he's healthy, he's a good player with a great situation)

-Palmer (why not? Ford, DHB, now this Criner fellow...)

-Cutler (remember, he has Marshall now! And in his late Denver days, he was a top fantasy QB)

-A.Smith (remember, he now has Moss, Manningham, ...)

-Kolb (Fitz AND Floyd?)

-Flynn (remember, he's a starter now! Rice, Baldwin, TWO capable TEs... do the Seahawks successfully copy the Pats?)

-Cassel (had a good year with Bowe & Co. Why can't he break out?)

-Flacco (he finally has a target for that magnificent deep ball of his)

-Luck (think of the garbage time stats, in an offense where he'll be the man)

-Griffin (Newton #2? He can operate the Shanahan offense, no question)

-Roethlisberger (as good a receiving core as he's ever had, and we all know he's a player)

By now I've mentioned over half the QBs in the league, and there's certainly room to argue others (e.g. is Andy Dalton a worse fantasy option than ALL of the players mentioned so far?)

The point is this: Can we try to narrow things down a bit? It's tough after last year, but I'd love to read some arguments as to why certain people I've mentioned (as well as any I haven't), are or aren't going to be studs next year.

 

[Danish Bengal]

I'm insulted by you mentioning Kolb, Smith, Flacco and Cassel and not Dalton

I'm not saying Dalton will be a stud (I don't think he will), but he certainly has a better chance than those four proven un-studs

 

[Shutout]

Flacco gets more criticism than is warranted. He is really a good player. He reminds me of taking on the type of burden that Eli used to. Everyone said eli was mediocre and dismissed him, by and large, despite he would always have 3400-3800 yards and 23+TDs.

Disclaimer: I'm not a flacco owner in any league. Just think he is probably better than most will readily aknowledge.

 

[Touchdown There]

Flacco gets more criticism than is warranted.

I agree. Young wide receivers. Great defense. I think his fantasy numbers will improve over the years.

 

[gandalas]

The thing is, at this point of the year everyone has optimism. Everyone just wants to look at the bright side of things. With that said, here are some of my thoughts on guys you did not mention:

St. Louis - Can Sam Bradford rebound from a mediocre season last year and start to develop on the promise he showed his rookie season? They have a bunch of new WRs, but who is going to be the guy to step up as the #1 WR?

NY Jets - Sanchez / Tebow? What a headache. Got to think that neither will be a top-20 option, and thus should not be considered except in 2-QB leagues.

Atlanta - Matt Ryan. Don't know how you missed him in your original post - he will be better than half the guys on that list. Top-10 option.

Buccaneers - Josh Freeman. Another bounce-back candidate after a rough 2011. Could sneak into the top-12 with a resurgence of 2010 numbers.

Minnesota - Christian Ponder. Odds are, he will have a rough season. Possibly ineffective ADP to start the season, and he didn't even do that well with him last year.

Jacksonville - whether Henne or Gabbert, this team's QB will likely be a dud.

Tennessee - Locker / Hasselbeck. I think if they give Locker the leash to air it out, this could be a dynamic passing offense. 3 Good WRs (assuming Wright is the real deal, Washington does not regress, and Britt comes back healthy) plus a TE that has been waiting to break out for a couple of years now. I actually am bullish on this passing offense this season.

Cleveland - Weeden / McCoy. It all depends on how good Weeden actually is, but I still don't think they have the weapons in the passing game to challenge for a top spot. My side hopes for the best, but I am trying to be realistic.

Buffalo - Fitzpatrick. He had a decent year, and they also have some weapons in the passing game. Still, I don't see him being top-15, and thus not a super option.

So, out of the list, I think the following will suck (not top-15 material):

Gabbert/Henne

Weeden/McCoy

Ponder

Sanchez/Tebow

Fitzpatrick

Alex Smith

Matt Cassell

Sam Bradford

Kevin Kolb

Matt Flynn

Andrew Luck (for this season at least)

 

[Sweet Love]

Flacco gets more criticism than is warranted. He is really a good player. He reminds me of taking on the type of burden that Eli used to. Everyone said eli was mediocre and dismissed him, by and large, despite he would always have 3400-3800 yards and 23+TDs. Disclaimer: I'm not a flacco owner in any league. Just think he is probably better than most will readily aknowledge.

Just to show you how much the league has changed in 10-15 years, Flacco puts up better numbers than Brunell in his prime, and Brunell was certainly considered top 10.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Stafford and Newton flew into the top-5 last year.

There should be 2-3 new QB's in the Top-8, there could be 2 new QB's in the Top-5, don't you think?

Question is, who?

I think perhaps Roethlisberger.

I also think Locker's pretty damned good (in terms of piling up FF points) if he gets to start but he may likely not.

And maybe Griffin. Maybe.

 

[MAC_32]

The easy ones

The QB of the Miami Dolphins

Blaine Gabbert

Brandon Weeden

Some see optimism, I see suck

Mark Sanchez - Tebow is the starting QB by October, I think the competition brought in makes him fold - not vice versa

Matt Cassell - never been a fan and with all the weapons around him now he's in put or shut up mode, I don't see it. KC benches him midseason and puts a full court press on fixing QB next off season. Problem is the rest of the team may be good enough to get enough wins to get them out of the top 10 again

Cristian Ponder - also, never a fan, shades of optimism were clouded by too much poor decision making. They'll be drafting high again and taking a stud QB early in 2013

Kevin Kolb - same as the last 2, never been a fan, Skelton's handed the ball by midseason and does enough to keep AZ out of the top 10, QB purgatory a la KC

Cracks in the foundation - these are guys I don't feel good about, they probably won't suck but I feel good that none of them will be top 10 QB's come season's end

Josh Freeman - TB's success really lies on his shoulders, good player but not the type that can carry a team

Joe Flacco - contract issues may get the best of him, he's not as good as he thinks he is. If he accepts his role as a game manager that takes his shots downfield this could work but I think he's got too big of a head to accept that...right now anyway

Andy Dalton - just a sophomore slump, he won't regress like Freeman did but I don't see growth, 2013 will show us what he's really made of

Jake Locker - his game has lots of holes and Tennessee's offense has some explosive potential now. May maintain fantasy value with his legs (like Ponder may) but he's the reason Tennessee is the outside looking in on the playoff picture

Stud that struggles

Drew Brees - for obvious reasons, just too much uncertainty around him, even if the contract issues are resolved before camp

 

[bigmiiiiike]

The thing is, at this point of the year everyone has optimism. Everyone just wants to look at the bright side of things. With that said, here are some of my thoughts on guys you did not mention:St. Louis - Can Sam Bradford rebound from a mediocre season last year and start to develop on the promise he showed his rookie season? They have a bunch of new WRs, but who is going to be the guy to step up as the #1 WR?NY Jets - Sanchez / Tebow? What a headache. Got to think that neither will be a top-20 option, and thus should not be considered except in 2-QB leagues.Atlanta - Matt Ryan. Don't know how you missed him in your original post - he will be better than half the guys on that list. Top-10 option.Buccaneers - Josh Freeman. Another bounce-back candidate after a rough 2011. Could sneak into the top-12 with a resurgence of 2010 numbers.Minnesota - Christian Ponder. Odds are, he will have a rough season. Possibly ineffective ADP to start the season, and he didn't even do that well with him last year.Jacksonville - whether Henne or Gabbert, this team's QB will likely be a dud.Tennessee - Locker / Hasselbeck. I think if they give Locker the leash to air it out, this could be a dynamic passing offense. 3 Good WRs (assuming Wright is the real deal, Washington does not regress, and Britt comes back healthy) plus a TE that has been waiting to break out for a couple of years now. I actually am bullish on this passing offense this season.Cleveland - Weeden / McCoy. It all depends on how good Weeden actually is, but I still don't think they have the weapons in the passing game to challenge for a top spot. My side hopes for the best, but I am trying to be realistic.Buffalo - Fitzpatrick. He had a decent year, and they also have some weapons in the passing game. Still, I don't see him being top-15, and thus not a super option.So, out of the list, I think the following will suck (not top-15 material):Gabbert/HenneWeeden/McCoyPonderSanchez/TebowFitzpatrickAlex SmithMatt CassellSam BradfordKevin KolbMatt FlynnAndrew Luck (for this season at least)

I'd add Palmer, RGIII, and Locker to the list.

 

[David Yudkin]

NY Jets - Sanchez / Tebow? What a headache. Got to think that neither will be a top-20 option, and thus should not be considered except in 2-QB leagues.

I'm not sure why people are thinking this (and I suppose that's better for the rest of us). Sanchez ranked as QB10 last year. Tebow has also shown he can put up Top 10 numbers. This tells me that the Jets will most likely be fielding a Top 10 fantasy QB NO MATTER WHICH GUY IS STARTING (or at least a borderline QB1). Both Sanchez and Tebow have ADPs around QB30 and are getting drafted in the 200+ range in drafts. At that point, draft both with two very late picks as your backups and feel comfortable with having a decent fantasy backup available no matter which guy starts. The Jets did nothing to improve their running game, so they may also have to rely on the pass more.

 

[MAC_32]

NY Jets - Sanchez / Tebow? What a headache. Got to think that neither will be a top-20 option, and thus should not be considered except in 2-QB leagues.

I'm not sure why people are thinking this (and I suppose that's better for the rest of us). Sanchez ranked as QB10 last year. Tebow has also shown he can put up Top 10 numbers. This tells me that the Jets will most likely be fielding a Top 10 fantasy QB NO MATTER WHICH GUY IS STARTING (or at least a borderline QB1). Both Sanchez and Tebow have ADPs around QB30 and are getting drafted in the 200+ range in drafts. At that point, draft both with two very late picks as your backups and feel comfortable with having a decent fantasy backup available no matter which guy starts. The Jets did nothing to improve their running game, so they may also have to rely on the pass more.

If Tebow is plummetting that far and I have room for a 3rd QB in a redraft I'm on board, he's starting by midseason. The problem with taking both is I think they'll both be on the field eating into each others production to start the year. That and Mark Sanchez just isn't a good QB.

 

[need2know]

gabbert will be the worst and then he will be benched for another crappy option in Henne

 

[BroadwayG]

Caleb hanie

 

[gandalas]

NY Jets - Sanchez / Tebow? What a headache. Got to think that neither will be a top-20 option, and thus should not be considered except in 2-QB leagues.

I'm not sure why people are thinking this (and I suppose that's better for the rest of us). Sanchez ranked as QB10 last year. Tebow has also shown he can put up Top 10 numbers. This tells me that the Jets will most likely be fielding a Top 10 fantasy QB NO MATTER WHICH GUY IS STARTING (or at least a borderline QB1). Both Sanchez and Tebow have ADPs around QB30 and are getting drafted in the 200+ range in drafts. At that point, draft both with two very late picks as your backups and feel comfortable with having a decent fantasy backup available no matter which guy starts. The Jets did nothing to improve their running game, so they may also have to rely on the pass more.

Sanchez actually did a LOT better than I thought he did last year (3474 yards, 26 TD/18 Int, 4 Fumble). Still, he was #26 in the NFL in Yards/Completion at 6.4 (tied with Tebow, Ponder, and Cassel!), #22 in yards per game, and #5 in interceptions thrown. He was the #11 QB in my main league, but that was more on a basis of 543 attempts, or the 9th highest total in the league. I just don't think he is that good. Plus he has Tebow that will eat into some of those passing attempts this season? I just do not see him ranking that high again, barring a spectacular increase in his passer efficiency rating (78.2, or #23 last year). A LOT of his value was built on that high number of TDs thrown, of which Plaxico Burress had a healthy number. Will Stephen Hill be able to make up those missing Red Zone numbers that Burress got last season? We shall see. I just do not see any way that he repeats his top-15 finish this season. I could be wrong, but I just don't see it.EDIT: I just saw that Sanchez also had 6 rushing TDs last year, which seems high to me for the small amount of yards he rushed for. Can you count on those 36 extra points again this year as well? I certainly think that if ANY QB on the Jets is going to be taking those 3rd and short on the goal lines this season, it will certainly not be Sanchez.

 

[SWC]

dawaine poopie pants gabbert the end