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Let's really break down the QB. Not as many (1 Viewer)

Somewhere this got personal and became a hijack of Favre vs Brooks.

No one is argueing that you did well last season...you won your league as you noted earlier...Kudos.

I am just not going to say Brooks will fair as well as he has in recent past...I see him being outside of the top10 this season. You can disagree but bickering over prvious stats is not the point.

Here's my question for you. Why do you think Brooks will fair well this season? Assuming the Saints pound the ball more. Because you can't possibly think that Brooks is a better NFL QB than Favre
Nah, nothing personal at all. Oh and thanks, I did do well last season. :P I just don't think McCallister's stats will impact Brooks. You saw all the Fantasy point charts in my earlier posts and without knowing what years they were from, you probably wouldn't have any clue as to which one was McCallister's 1600+ yard year, which one was R. Williams last year in NO and which one was last year when McCallister was hurt and gimpy for many games.

Bottom line is that NO is a pretty talented team and I think if they play a full season, they are going to do very well offensively and McCallister and Brooks will both have good years. I just don't see the downside of Brooks being worse than QB10 (Note that the spread from QB4 to QB 11 was 46 points and the spread from QB2 to QB3 was 68 points).

His ADP at Antsports is 8.05 (QB14) and the 5 QBs behind him are Brees, Pennington, Carr, Griese and Leftwich. I don't know about you but Brooks, barring best seasons ever by these guys, should outperform all of them and at worst be as good as his draft position, but chances are he will be better than his draft position. I can't say the same about the other folks that are drafted in front of Brooks, some of whom have never finished better than him.

I would say right now that Favre is a better NFL QB, but if by the time Brooks' career is over he wins a Super Bowl and start improving to a level just a bit better than he has been, then maybe they might end up comparable. That might be unlikely, but don't forget, Brooks has only been a starter for four and a half years. After four years Manning had 111TDs, 81INTs and 16418 yards and Brooks after four years (not counting half year in 2000 - too hard for my little mind to compare) has 98TDs, 61INTs and 14760 yards.

Again, not trying to say Brooks is as good as Manning, but his first four years aren't that bad comparatively and Manning's Colts were 32-32 after his first four years, so maybe a few good years by the Saints (may never happen) and people might think better of Brooks.

OK, no more posts from me about Brooks, I promise, unless someone specifically asks me or I get bored at work. stbugs out...

 
One all important point that seems to be be missed here you must make great picks at the other positions where you're passing on selecting a QB. It's a zero sum game. The idea is you can sacrifice a little star power at QB in exchange for gaining great value at the other positions.

J
As much as I hate to go up against the big man, I think this is somewhat flaVVed. If you don't make great picks at several positions throughout a draft you are going down like the Titanic. No matter how you slice it, even if you make poor draft day decisions and COMPOUND yuor mistakes by missing at QB, you would be dead in the water regardless.There are no absolutes here. A player can bomb, players get injured, it's a lot of luck to win it all. I would say this, though, there's not a lot of luck in fielding a competitive team.

As for MOP's example of Plummer running out of steam at the wrong time, them's the breaks, I suppose. At least he was playing. Many other picks at other positions (specifically RB) were out of the lineup or benched at that point, so everything is relative.

While in this thread I am advocating waiting on QB, this is not my 100% methodology to draft QB. This year alone in different drafts I have taken: a Big 3 QB, paired two Top 5-6 QB, waited and took several so-so guys, and all points in between. You have to be able to change up your strategy on the fly, as guys will go sooner or later than expected and you have to adapt.

But in most standard scoring/alignment leagues, you can stand to wait and not lose much in terms of comparitive value.
Hi David,No disagreements there. You have to make great picks everywhere.

J

 
Somewhere this got personal and became a hijack of Favre vs Brooks.

No one is argueing that you did well last season...you won your league as you noted earlier...Kudos.

I am just not going to say Brooks will fair as well as he has in recent past...I see him being outside of the top10 this season. You can disagree but bickering over prvious stats is not the point.

Here's my question for you. Why do you think Brooks will fair well this season? Assuming the Saints pound the ball more. Because you can't possibly think that Brooks is a better NFL QB than Favre
Nah, nothing personal at all. Oh and thanks, I did do well last season. :P
Nothing personal here either. I enjoy a good debate and stbugs definitely brought good points to the table to counter my own. That made it fun. :) I think we're both feeling strong in our beliefs because both of us were able to do well last season with our different approaches. You got Brooks later and it paid off. I took Favre and it paid off for me as well. And that's all that matters, right? ;)

 
As always MOP; an excellent post, and thread. I have to disagree with you that there are not an abundance of quality qb's this year. Quality in FF has to be judged by the value received. This is the first year that I can remember that there are multiple qb's that I feel could far exceed their draft position. Because of this; I'll gladly wait, and wait, then nab three qb's later in the draft. The value left at RB and WR in rounds 7-8 on are incredibly difficult to find, while value can still be found at QB. Picking 3 after value is gone elsewhere gives you an excellent chance of finding one gem (which is all you need). IF a qb slips past his ADP, I'll surely grab him, but I wait until a round after the ADP. I also take playoff weeks into consideration and will upgrade mid-range qb's with great playoff schedules. My take on the qb's as you've listed them:1. Manning: Safest bet to be a stud; but he's not worth an early first rounder to me2. Culpepper: He will produce; if you have a late second I think he's worth it, as you can pick up your second rb; or an excellent wr on the turn. 3. McNabb: With C-Buck gone, Westy's receptions will stay high; and I think Owens will do just fine. Great QB, with decent value; but, as with the two above, odds are they will be taken before value opens the door. 4. Bulger: I love Bulger's chances of success. I fear his durability; but think he's the first qb whose ADP is worthy of a pick, though he is being taken earlier and earlier. 5. Collins: Another quality starter, but the riskiest thus far. Tough to take a risk this early with all the talent left, especially at wr. 6. Trent Green: His sd of being picked is quite high = he may show up a round late = nab him and be happy if he does. 7. Michael Vick: #7? are you serious? I don't get it. = Next!8. Brett Favre: I'd love him as my qb 1; pray he slips a bit and take him if he does. 9. Aaron Brooks: This is too early for him. If he is available as QB #12 off the board and I didn't have a qb yet, I'd grab him. His ADP is lower than the next three (= late 8th = he's worth a pick if he's available there. 10. Tom Brady: Great upside and quite safe. As much as people avoid him as they try to stay away from cold weather qb's (= bad for playoffs); he was gold last year. 11. Matt Hasselbeck: This is the QB I will target for most of my drafts. He has an incredibly ex schedule, and an easier playoff schedule. With an ADP in the 7th round = I'd gladly take him here!12. Jake Plummer: The next QB I'll be targeting. Jake's ADP is late 7th round = another steal!____________________________________________________________________= 12 QB's I'd love to have = I'd be confident if I found value = didn't reach and got one of the above. The good news is that if your league-mates have all reached, and you don't have a qb yet; there is still value on the board, and you can wait until round 9 to get a qb = still grabbing value; as all of your league-mates have a qb1 (unless you are faced with the great qb squeeze! :excited: )______________________________________________________________________13. Carson Palmer: I love C. Johnson, but will pass on CP this year, as it's not time yet. With an ADP of 7.02 = no value here. 14. Drew Brees: I see little risk here; with an ADP of 9.02 I'd love him here. I'd feel fine having him as my qb 1; getting him in the 9th round or later. 15. Steve McNair: I don't understand why he's fallen so far? he has an ADP of late tenth round. It's amazing how short FF drafter's memories are. I'd take him in the 10th as my qb2 and be ecstatic. If he's my qb1, I'd go QB, QB the next two rounds, and still feel fine. This same philosophy lies in the next couple qb's and Pennington and Harrington.. 16. Byron Leftwich: Early 10th ADP = again, an excellent QB2, yada yada (see McNair) 17. Jake Delhomme: I'd take him prior to Palmer, Brees, McNair and Lefttwich. 18. David Carr: No thanks. 19. Chad Pennington: Another great qb to pair with one of the above. He's looked awesome in preseason, and with Coles back I like his chances of posting solid numbers. 20. Kyle Boller: No thanks. 21. Joey Harrington: Awesome value = He's going late 10th. Another awesome qb to pair with one of the above, or take as QB1 and get two other good ones. Why is he behind Boller, et al. on this list?22. Brian Griese: Another ADP I don't get (10th round). I don't want him to be my QB1, but he'd be an awesome QB2/3, if all three are preferred players above. 23. Ben Rothlisberger: Faded over his last 1/3 of the season including playoffs. Excited to see what he can do this year but would hate to rely on him every week.24. Eli Manning: No 25. Alex Smith/Tim Rattay: No26. Patrick Ramsey: No27. Kurt Warner: I'd gladly take him as my QB328. Drew Bledsoe: No29. J.P.Losman: No30. Trent Dilfer: No31. Gus Frerotte: No32. Chad Hutch/J.Blake: No no no.____________________________________________________________________I thus have the first twelve (with the goal of getting at least one of the below, +If I don't get one of the first twelve, my goal will be to get three of the following: Brees, McNair, Lefty, Delhomme, Pennington, Harrington, Griese & Warner.I'd bet the odds of choosing any three of these and ending up with a top 12 qb is higher than choosing one of the first 10, and having them exceed their draft position (this is the gamble you make by waiting). I don't like to necessarily play the schedule game as I like to find one that's a worthy weekly starter and go with them unless the schedules are too tempting to use. Having three of the guys mentioned gives you an excellent chance of finding a gem.my .02~Liquor

 
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I enjoy a good debate and stbugs definitely brought good points to the table to counter my own.
:lmao: :lmao: :lmao: Funniest thing I read all day.
Don't proofread your own posts, do you?I'd seriously be shocked if you ever brought something of substance to a discussion. Instead of mindlessly trolling my posts for your own amusement perhaps you could actually take some time to construct something of substance. Hell, you can disagree with me all you like but at least I bring plenty of facts and information to the discussion. You resort to little more than an endless parade of allegedly funny smilies and lame remarks.

As I've said numerous times and as you've proven countless times you're entirely predictable. You are either unwilling or incapable of a legitimate discussion. I'd like to believe in the interests of fairness that it's the former, but you've yet to provide any reason for me to believe it isn't the latter.

What are the odds you'll prove me correct once again? :D

 
I enjoy a good debate and stbugs definitely brought good points to the table to counter my own.
:lmao: :lmao: :lmao: Funniest thing I read all day.
Don't proofread your own posts, do you?I'd seriously be shocked if you ever brought something of substance to a discussion. Instead of mindlessly trolling my posts for your own amusement perhaps you could actually take some time to construct something of substance. Hell, you can disagree with me all you like but at least I bring plenty of facts and information to the discussion. You resort to little more than an endless parade of allegedly funny smilies and lame remarks.

As I've said numerous times and as you've proven countless times you're entirely predictable. You are either unwilling or incapable of a legitimate discussion. I'd like to believe in the interests of fairness that it's the former, but you've yet to provide any reason for me to believe it isn't the latter.

What are the odds you'll prove me correct once again? :D
I'll dignify you with a response. YOU BROUGHT NOTHING TO THE TABLE. The funny part is that you think you did. Sadly, it's all too common, I am sorry to say.I'll go back to my initial comment, which still stands. You used selective statistics in a feeble attempt to bolster an already weak argument -- one in which you lost sight of the fact that Brooks goes two rounds later than your idol -- all-the-while refusing to address stbugs irrefutable evidence of total points for the last 4 years. You see, "I'll take Favre", is not a good defense.

You were :own3d: by stbugs, and I was actually trying to help you understand that before it got worse. :thumbup:

 
First off, Favre isn't my idol. But I wouldn't expect you to have any understanding of the facts. They're not important to you.

Secondly, if you play in a league where passing yards and passing TDs aren't important statistics for QBs than yes I can see why you'd have such a difficult time grasping the point I was making. But looking at how a player performs over the course of the season and using two significant forms of statistics as a form of analysis is hardly being "selective."

I asked you before what criteria you use to determine a QB1 and you ignored the question in favor of more trolling. I explained to you two of the criteria I use and I supplied the stats which supported my position. What pieces of analysis or statistics or information did you bring?

Anything?

Had you bothered to even pay attention to anything that was said you'd notice at no point did I ever discuss Brooks' ADP compared to Favre's. Again, I know these are pesky little facts and I'm wasting my time explaining them to you but I'm just trying to help. My point was that based on the criteria I listed -- which involve two of the most and arguably the two most important statistics used to judge QBs by fantasy standards -- I trust Favre more as a QB1 than Brooks and the numbers from last season bore that out. The fact you didn't like the numbers that were presented cannot wipe them from existence no matter how badly you may want to. Sorry but it just doesn't work that way when you're dealing with those pesky little facts.

Honestly Sonny, if you'd ever like to have a legitimate discussion about something here I'm all for it. I love to talk about football and fantasy football and that's what I'm here for. So if the day comes when you're interested in doing something other than trolling my posts and getting spanked by the mods for doing so and you are genuinely interested in discussing something with me then feel free to do so -- especially if you can do so without resorting to lame jokes and smilies and so forth and actually bring something of substance to the table.

Think you're up to that? Maybe you'll surprise me. Anything's possible.

 
Can somebody edit that? :loco:
Thanks for proving me right.Again.

Entirely predictable troll behavior. You don't even make me work hard. I keep giving you chances to prove me wrong but you just can't do it. I'm handing it to you on a silver platter but it's just impossible for you. So instead you just continue to prove me right time after time after time after ...

:lmao: :lmao: :lmao:

 
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I enjoy a good debate and stbugs definitely brought good points to the table to counter my own.
:lmao: :lmao: :lmao: Funniest thing I read all day.
Don't proofread your own posts, do you?I'd seriously be shocked if you ever brought something of substance to a discussion. Instead of mindlessly trolling my posts for your own amusement perhaps you could actually take some time to construct something of substance. Hell, you can disagree with me all you like but at least I bring plenty of facts and information to the discussion. You resort to little more than an endless parade of allegedly funny smilies and lame remarks.

As I've said numerous times and as you've proven countless times you're entirely predictable. You are either unwilling or incapable of a legitimate discussion. I'd like to believe in the interests of fairness that it's the former, but you've yet to provide any reason for me to believe it isn't the latter.

What are the odds you'll prove me correct once again? :D
I'll dignify you with a response. YOU BROUGHT NOTHING TO THE TABLE. The funny part is that you think you did. Sadly, it's all too common, I am sorry to say.I'll go back to my initial comment, which still stands. You used selective statistics in a feeble attempt to bolster an already weak argument -- one in which you lost sight of the fact that Brooks goes two rounds later than your idol -- all-the-while refusing to address stbugs irrefutable evidence of total points for the last 4 years. You see, "I'll take Favre", is not a good defense.

You were :own3d: by stbugs, and I was actually trying to help you understand that before it got worse. :thumbup:
Guys please drop this. This is the kind of crap I'm tired of seeing on the board. Move on.Thanks.

J

 
Will do Joe. And you're right. I should know better than to respond to his trolling and baiting and I apologize for adding to the situation. No good comes from this crap and I doubt anybody here wants to read it -- especially in a good thread like this one.My apologies again.

 
MOPI appreciate the time you have devoted to this topic. Great reading and I agree with your analysis of the various QB's. I am targeting Favre and Griese in my upcoming draft. In addition, your thread on WR was as insightful. Have you posted your thoughts on the RB position or is that something I can look forward to?Thanks. :thumbup:

 
Enough of the Favre/Brooks love fest already...Sheesh!  :rolleyes:

Went QBBC at $200 cap auction/keeper last season and wound up taking the following to the championship game:

E.O.Y

Rank / Player / Salary

8......Plummer... $2

9......Brady... $12

10....Brees... $0 (F/A)

How many thought these 3 would end up Top 10?

Where do you place them this year?
Sorry....Brady was a good bet since he had done it before and will probably do it again. Brady, as MOP trying to point out, is kind of a top 10, but just barely top 10. If you get him late enough and solidy the rest of your team then you will be fine. Plummer is probably stalking the top 10 again since not much has changed, but again he will probably be 8-12 type range and even if he is higher he will still be in the same group of people that seem to hang a few spots before to a few spots after 10.

Brees, however, I am not as high on. Tomlinson is much healthier and Brees had a career year. His Y/A and TD/INT ratio was fantastic. He has a decent receiving crew, but I am just not sold on him because he was so inconsistent and had more than half (15 of 27) of his TDs in only 4 games and 33% in only 2 games. Based on the Favre/Brooks discussion ;) Brees had 4 stinkers, under 10 fantasy points, which means in 4 games, he was lights out and another 4 he stunk. The other 7 he was average. I guess that is what rubs me the wrong way, he has not done enough career wise for me to want to pick him (unless at QB2) close to Plummer and Brady because he could easily regress and lose you a lot of games. When you are waiting on a QB, you need to make sure you grab a guy who is going to give you consistent points because you can't expect them to pull a Manning and win you a game by themselves.
Anyone care to shed some light on what transpired since July to cause Plummers fee fall from QB6-7 to QB11-12 :loco:

 
Enough of the Favre/Brooks love fest already...Sheesh!  :rolleyes:

Went QBBC at $200 cap auction/keeper last season and wound up taking the following to the championship game:

E.O.Y

Rank / Player / Salary

8......Plummer... $2

9......Brady... $12

10....Brees... $0 (F/A)

How many thought these 3 would end up Top 10?

Where do you place them this year?
Sorry....Brady was a good bet since he had done it before and will probably do it again. Brady, as MOP trying to point out, is kind of a top 10, but just barely top 10. If you get him late enough and solidy the rest of your team then you will be fine. Plummer is probably stalking the top 10 again since not much has changed, but again he will probably be 8-12 type range and even if he is higher he will still be in the same group of people that seem to hang a few spots before to a few spots after 10.

Brees, however, I am not as high on. Tomlinson is much healthier and Brees had a career year. His Y/A and TD/INT ratio was fantastic. He has a decent receiving crew, but I am just not sold on him because he was so inconsistent and had more than half (15 of 27) of his TDs in only 4 games and 33% in only 2 games. Based on the Favre/Brooks discussion ;) Brees had 4 stinkers, under 10 fantasy points, which means in 4 games, he was lights out and another 4 he stunk. The other 7 he was average. I guess that is what rubs me the wrong way, he has not done enough career wise for me to want to pick him (unless at QB2) close to Plummer and Brady because he could easily regress and lose you a lot of games. When you are waiting on a QB, you need to make sure you grab a guy who is going to give you consistent points because you can't expect them to pull a Manning and win you a game by themselves.
Anyone care to shed some light on what transpired since July to cause Plummers fee fall from QB6-7 to QB11-12 :loco:
That's not too bad for him. Plummer does have some risk, but as you can see in my post above, Brooks is QB14 according to ADP and there is a big risk drop off after that. Plummer has missed time in 3 of the last 6 seasons, and he won't go higher than QB5 again.Anyway, I plan to go after the gaggle of QBs right around QB10 this year. I have to draft two QBs by round 7 (we have a keeper league for draft picks and have to fill out a full roster before picking any position) and 7 QBs (Vick, Brees, Palmer, E. Manning, Rothlis, Bulger and Pennington) are already gone. I pick 9th and Manning/Culpepper will probably be gone in the 1st before me and I won't take them anyway at 9 and McNabb/Green will also probably go early. I have my sights set on waiting because I think Brooks, Brady, Hasselbeck, Plummer, McNair, Delhomme and Griese should all still be available and any two of those would be a good pair to go through an entire season and potentially end up with a top 6 QB. I am keeping AJ (8th), DD (9th) and Kennison (14th) so in rounds 1-5, I can grab a RB1/WR1 pair at 9/16 and then a WR2/TE/RB3(backup) before grabbing two QBs. I might have to take QB1 in round 5 if there is a great value or too many start disappearing.

 
:goodposting: .....guys.Perhaps I'm stating the obvious, but I just wanted to give my :2cents: IMO, while I realize strategy differs with each draft/league and VALUE is the key....I'm a believer in QBBC and think the key is to grab THE BEST TWO COMBO OF QBS or whatever roster requirements you have at the postion. Plummer + Brooks = Championship for me last year and the strategy has served me well in previous yrs. I dont have a problem looking at the matchups each week and starting the guy I think has the BEST CHANCE to get me 20 points for THAT WEEK. With this strategy, you really need to look at SOS before your draft and each week. While there is risk and you need to make certain assumptions, the key is to capitalize on the RIGHT COMBINATION OF VALUE.I'm currently still in the middle of this process, preparing for my draft on Saturday, but Plummer, Delhomme, Hasslebeck, Warner, and even E.Manning are on my list of decent value with ADP at 7-10 for most of those guys, except for Eli and Kurt who can be had later or even on waivers. Sorry if this is a :hijack:...but are there any combos that stick out to anyone?
 
:goodposting: .....guys.

Perhaps I'm stating the obvious, but I just wanted to give my :2cents:

IMO, while I realize strategy differs with each draft/league and VALUE is the key....I'm a believer in QBBC and think the key is to grab THE BEST TWO COMBO OF QBS or whatever roster requirements you have at the postion. Plummer + Brooks = Championship for me last year and the strategy has served me well in previous yrs.

I dont have a problem looking at the matchups each week and starting the guy I think has the BEST CHANCE to get me 20 points for THAT WEEK. With this strategy, you really need to look at SOS before your draft and each week. While there is risk and you need to make certain assumptions, the key is to capitalize on the RIGHT COMBINATION OF VALUE.

I'm currently still in the middle of this process, preparing for my draft on Saturday, but Plummer, Delhomme, Hasslebeck, Warner, and even E.Manning are on my list of decent value with ADP at 7-10 for most of those guys, except for Eli and Kurt who can be had later or even on waivers.

Sorry if this is a :hijack:...but are there any combos that stick out to anyone?
I really like Hasselbeck this season...he's a possible top5 QB for sure. Can be had in the 7th-8th round of many drafts. Pair him with Delhomme and you have a nice 1-2 punch at QB...Griese late and you might just have 3 top10 QB and a real shot at trade bait.
 
MOP,....there are a couple of weeks during the year where they both have a difficult matchup...but overall Delhomme/Hasslebeck matchup well and look like a good combo....Thx.

 
MOP,....there are a couple of weeks during the year where they both have a difficult matchup...but overall Delhomme/Hasslebeck matchup well and look like a good combo....Thx.
Right but they have the talent to beat those defenses. No QB will have 16 amazing weeks. There are very few shut down defenses...most are average at best.
 
BTW, I keep saying it but I'm loving Harrington / Garcia this year.

Loving them.

J
J,Is your love tempered at all by the Lions' abysmal showing on Monday night? Or do you simply chalk up the total lack of pass protection to "pre-season vanilla strategery"?

No :sarcasm: , sincerely curious.

 

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