Let's talk about Legedu Naanee (1 Viewer)

[whodeywhodey]

Naanee is one of the best late round targets imo and I couldn't find a thread dedicated solely to him.Word out of camp is that Floyd is the WR1 and Naanee is the WR2, although some believe that either could end up being the WR1.His current ADP is the 13th round. What are your projections???Some recent news...

Legedu Naanee's potential is "almost limitless," according to beat writer Kevin Acee.Naanee is the heavy favorite to be the Chargers' No. 2 receiver, but he's also the fourth option (at best) in the offense as Acee points out. Still, Naanee's talent needs to be recognized. He's a worth late-round flier in re-draft leagues and gets a boost for his sure hands in PPR formats.8/19/2010 1:26:00 PMSource: San Diego Union-Tribune

Legedu Naanee caught Philip Rivers' only touchdown, a 28-yarder, in Saturday's preseason opener.Malcom Floyd was supposed to be Rivers' favorite down-field target with Vincent Jackson absent, but Naanee was targeted three times on Rivers' three drives. Buster Davis, expected to push Naanee for the early-season No. 2 job, left with yet another injury -- this time a hip pointer.8/15/2010 1:46:00 AM

The Chargers' initial preseason depth chart confirms that Legedu Naanee is the team's projected starting flanker.It's barely even a competition with Craig Davis at this point. Naanee will be a third option in the passing game behind Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd, but arguably has the best hands on the team. He's worth a flier in PPR drafts.8/11/2010 6:51:00 PMSource: chargers.com

 

[whodeywhodey]

I'll get this thing started. Off the top of my head...

65 catches, 850 yards, 7 TDs

 

[FGITLOTR]

I also see the potential and think he has more upside than Floyd. He's definitely a bit raw, but I think he has the skillset to be decent and surprise people this year. With Gates getting blanketed by two defenders, he should see a lot of single coverage on the outside. I'm viewing him Asa #4-5 WR, with enough upside to counted on a flex/#3...in a dynasty league his value is obviously bit higher

 

[chihawk]

One thing to keep in mind is that the Chargers could potentially get a WR as part of any deal for Jackson.

 

[whodeywhodey]

One thing to keep in mind is that the Chargers could potentially get a WR as part of any deal for Jackson.

That's true. But they are asking for a 2nd round pick, I believe.

 

[Gopher State]

Turner has big plans for Chargers' tight ends

Michael Blunda

mblunda@pfwmedia.com

Associate editor

Norv Turner isn't about to let WR Vincent Jackson's impending holdout limit his offensive options. To make up for the likely absence of his top wideout, Turner has decided to get creative — instead of deploying additional receivers, he's taking advantage of his stellar collection of tight ends. From what we hear, the head coach and play-caller plans for his tight ends to play a major role in the passing game this season, and he has experimented with various formations in training camp, including three-TE sets. Already having arguably the league's best tight end in Antonio Gates, who signed a five-year contract extension in late July, and the versatile Kris Wilson, the Bolts added veteran Randy McMichael this offseason to round out the unit. With all three being skilled pass catchers, San Diego believes that putting the trio on the field simultaneously will pose serious matchup problems for opponents. Having multiple big bodies out there at once to block also could bolster the rushing attack.

Interesting story about TE's in SD

 

[Tau837]

Naanee is already 27, and has a grand total of 40/375/2 in his career. Not only is that not much in the way of career production by that age, it also shows a really poor TD rate and a really low ypr average. I think he is talented enough to step forward this year, but his career to date has been underwhelming.

Redraft:

Naanee will presumably be the 3rd option in the offense behind Gates and Floyd, and Sproles and Mathews will also get a lot of targets. Last season, the 3rd option was a combination of Floyd and Chambers, and they combined for 43/647/1 receiving in that role (Chambers' stats in the first 7 games plus Floyd's stats in the last 9 games, when he replaced Chambers in the starting lineup). I suppose it is arguable that not all of Jackson's targets will shift to Floyd, so the 4th option's share of the receiving game could be a bit bigger... but likely still considerably below whodey's projection above.

Furthermore, the Chargers could shift a bit more toward a running offense this year, in which case the overall targets could be a bit reduced.

In short, there are valid reasons why he is being drafted in the 13th round...

Dynasty:

Rivers and Turner, and thus a solid passing offense, should be around for the foreseeable future. If Naanee could stick as the WR2 for long enough, Gates will eventually slow down and will likely be pretty hard to replace, in which case the WR2 could get a bigger share of the offense. Also, Floyd is 29. However, somewhat surprisingly, Naanee is already 27 and has yet to really show anything. If VJax is traded, I don't think the long term WR1 is currently on the roster.

 

[Touchdown There]

I have Naanee in every league that I am in. He has hand of gold. However, to believe in Naanee, you have to believe that V Jax will not return to the Chargers.

Possiblity #1: worst case scenario for Naanee is that V Jax returns in week 7 and has a 3 week delay to the field. He would be eligible in week 10. If Floyd and Naanee are as good as advertised, then why would you automatically insert V Jax back into the lineup for the final 6 games? They know he will be an unrestricted free agent for 2011 that will not return to the Chargers. There would be no reason to disrupt the chemistry of the team with V Jax (regardless of his talent). Keep in mind that V Jax is going to be really pissy about the whole situation and may not give 100%. There is the chance the Chargers insert him as the #3 WR. This would eat into Naanee's catches during the all important FF playoffs.

Possiblity #2: best case scenario for Naanee is that V Jax is traded. Regardless of the #1 or #2 WR designation, Naanee may be given the X WR role that was V Jax. If he earns V Jax position and reps, he will have the opportunity to post V Jax numbers from last year.

Possibility #3: Floyd moves into the X WR role. Naanee gets the secondary WR role and post WR2-WR3 numbers on the year.

I do not think V Jax will be back. If you do not think he will be back, someone between Floyd and Naanee is going to post WR1 numbers this year at great FF ADP price. Pick up both in your drafts!

 

[JohnnyU]

Naanee is already 27, and has a grand total of 40/375/2 in his career. Not only is that not much in the way of career production by that age, it also shows a really poor TD rate and a really low ypr average. I think he is talented enough to step forward this year, but his career to date has been underwhelming.Redraft:Naanee will presumably be the 3rd option in the offense behind Gates and Floyd, and Sproles and Mathews will also get a lot of targets. Last season, the 3rd option was a combination of Floyd and Chambers, and they combined for 43/647/1 receiving in that role (Chambers' stats in the first 7 games plus Floyd's stats in the last 9 games, when he replaced Chambers in the starting lineup). I suppose it is arguable that not all of Jackson's targets will shift to Floyd, so the 4th option's share of the receiving game could be a bit bigger... but likely still considerably below whodey's projection above.Furthermore, the Chargers could shift a bit more toward a running offense this year, in which case the overall targets could be a bit reduced.In short, there are valid reasons why he is being drafted in the 13th round...Dynasty:Rivers and Turner, and thus a solid passing offense, should be around for the foreseeable future. If Naanee could stick as the WR2 for long enough, Gates will eventually slow down and will likely be pretty hard to replace, in which case the WR2 could get a bigger share of the offense. Also, Floyd is 29. However, somewhat surprisingly, Naanee is already 27 and has yet to really show anything. If VJax is traded, I don't think the long term WR1 is currently on the roster.

You've always been a Naanee hater I see that hasn't changed.

 

[Tau837]

I have Naanee in every league that I am in. He has hand of gold. However, to believe in Naanee, you have to believe that V Jax will not return to the Chargers.Possiblity #1: worst case scenario for Naanee is that V Jax returns in week 7 and has a 3 week delay to the field. He would be eligible in week 10. If Floyd and Naanee are as good as advertised, then why would you automatically insert V Jax back into the lineup for the final 6 games? They know he will be an unrestricted free agent for 2011 that will not return to the Chargers. There would be no reason to disrupt the chemistry of the team with V Jax (regardless of his talent). Keep in mind that V Jax is going to be really pissy about the whole situation and may not give 100%. There is the chance the Chargers insert him as the #3 WR. This would eat into Naanee's catches during the all important FF playoffs.Possiblity #2: best case scenario for Naanee is that V Jax is traded. Regardless of the #1 or #2 WR designation, Naanee may be given the X WR role that was V Jax. If he earns V Jax position and reps, he will have the opportunity to post V Jax numbers from last year.Possibility #3: Floyd moves into the X WR role. Naanee gets the secondary WR role and post WR2-WR3 numbers on the year.I do not think V Jax will be back. If you do not think he will be back, someone between Floyd and Naanee is going to post WR1 numbers this year at great FF ADP price. Pick up both in your drafts!

IMO #2 is not actually a possibility.With regard to possibility #3, when you say WR2-WR3, I assume you are suggesting he will put up numbers that would put him in the top 36 WRs on the year. I disagree, unless Floyd or Gates gets hurt. Last season after Chambers left, Floyd was WR42 the rest of the way, and that is inflated for two reasons: (1) the Chargers had already had their bye, while some teams had not, so he played 1 more game than several other teams; and (2) Jackson sat out week 17, and Floyd had easily his biggest game (9/140).Furthermore, the Chargers could run a bit more and pass a bit less this year. And they could throw more to the TEs, since Gates played through injury last year and because they added McMichael (see another poster's post above).

 

[Ghost of Bill Walsh]

While I like both Floyd and Naanee this year I think Naanee holds more value when you compare to where the two are getting drafted. I was fortunate enough to get Naanee off the waiver wire early in a dynasty league after our 5 round rookie/FA draft. I'm not too worried either about Turner using multiple TE sets. They're saying Naanee has the best hands so why wouldn't they try to get him on the field whenever possible. It's possible both Floyd and Naanee end up with similar numbers unless Floyd clearly seperates himself as the main target. I have a decent WR corps in my dyansty league so Naanee will probably just be a bye week filler or spot matchup. He definitely could be a decent WR4 or flex player in larger leagues but he holds more value IMO in dynasty leagues.

Given the uncertainty of how targets will go after Gates I'll be flexible on Naanee's projections with lesser numbers but he could surpass those if Rivers zones in on him. If they trade VJax to Seattle I see them getting a draft pick but not a WR from them unless it's someone like Obomanu which shouldn't hurt Naanee's opportunities.

50-60 receptions/650-750 yds/ 4-6 td's

 

[Tau837]

Naanee is already 27, and has a grand total of 40/375/2 in his career. Not only is that not much in the way of career production by that age, it also shows a really poor TD rate and a really low ypr average. I think he is talented enough to step forward this year, but his career to date has been underwhelming.Redraft:Naanee will presumably be the 3rd option in the offense behind Gates and Floyd, and Sproles and Mathews will also get a lot of targets. Last season, the 3rd option was a combination of Floyd and Chambers, and they combined for 43/647/1 receiving in that role (Chambers' stats in the first 7 games plus Floyd's stats in the last 9 games, when he replaced Chambers in the starting lineup). I suppose it is arguable that not all of Jackson's targets will shift to Floyd, so the 4th option's share of the receiving game could be a bit bigger... but likely still considerably below whodey's projection above.Furthermore, the Chargers could shift a bit more toward a running offense this year, in which case the overall targets could be a bit reduced.In short, there are valid reasons why he is being drafted in the 13th round...Dynasty:Rivers and Turner, and thus a solid passing offense, should be around for the foreseeable future. If Naanee could stick as the WR2 for long enough, Gates will eventually slow down and will likely be pretty hard to replace, in which case the WR2 could get a bigger share of the offense. Also, Floyd is 29. However, somewhat surprisingly, Naanee is already 27 and has yet to really show anything. If VJax is traded, I don't think the long term WR1 is currently on the roster.

You've always been a Naanee hater I see that hasn't changed.

I'm not a hater. I like him, and, as a Chargers fan, I hope he performs better than I am expecting. But his past performance is unimpressive, and I don't see any reason he will get a particularly large number of targets, which will limit his opportunity.If you disagree, explain why. The only thing I can really see to justify people being high on him is gut feel.

 

[Tau837]

While I like both Floyd and Naanee this year I think Naanee holds more value when you compare to where the two are getting drafted. I was fortunate enough to get Naanee off the waiver wire early in a dynasty league after our 5 round rookie/FA draft. I'm not too worried either about Turner using multiple TE sets. They're saying Naanee has the best hands so why wouldn't they try to get him on the field whenever possible. It's possible both Floyd and Naanee end up with similar numbers unless Floyd clearly seperates himself as the main target. I have a decent WR corps in my dyansty league so Naanee will probably just be a bye week filler or spot matchup. He definitely could be a decent WR4 or flex player in larger leagues but he holds more value IMO in dynasty leagues.Given the uncertainty of how targets will go after Gates I'll be flexible on Naanee's projections with lesser numbers but he could surpass those if Rivers zones in on him. If they trade VJax to Seattle I see them getting a draft pick but not a WR from them unless it's someone like Obomanu which shouldn't hurt Naanee's opportunities.50-60 receptions/650-750 yds/ 4-6 td's

Naanee does not have better hands than Floyd; Floyd has great hands. And Floyd has clearly separated himself - he started last year when Chambers left; Naanee didn't.You guys projecting up to 6 or 7 TDs are way off base IMO, and I think the other numbers are also too high. Unless you are projecting injury to Floyd and/or Gates.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I'm not a hater. I like him, and, as a Chargers fan, I hope he performs better than I am expecting. But his past performance is unimpressive, and I don't see any reason he will get a particularly large number of targets, which will limit his opportunity.If you disagree, explain why. The only thing I can really see to justify people being high on him is gut feel.

I think Naanee's past performance has been very impressive. Didn't he lead the league in catches/target last year? The only thing holding Naanee back in the past has been opportunity. I think he'll flourish with VJax gone. Not 80-1100-10 flourish, but 64-800-6ish. And while I'm high on Floyd as well, we still don't know who #17 will trust more when his WR options are Naanee and Floyd. I think Naanee is an outstanding sleeper at this point.

 

[JohnnyU]

I'm not a hater. I like him, and, as a Chargers fan, I hope he performs better than I am expecting. But his past performance is unimpressive, and I don't see any reason he will get a particularly large number of targets, which will limit his opportunity.If you disagree, explain why. The only thing I can really see to justify people being high on him is gut feel.

I think Naanee's past performance has been very impressive. Didn't he lead the league in catches/target last year? The only thing holding Naanee back in the past has been opportunity. I think he'll flourish with VJax gone. Not 80-1100-10 flourish, but 64-800-6ish. And while I'm high on Floyd as well, we still don't know who #17 will trust more when his WR options are Naanee and Floyd. I think Naanee is an outstanding sleeper at this point.

 

[Touchdown There]

In order to get Naanee as a great value, there has to be Naanee haters. I expected this thread to get many of them.

Naanee is outstandingly efficient. Last year he caught 88.9% of his targets. He led the league among qualifying receivers. Naanee dropped just one of his 27 targets, and paced the Chargers in yards-after-catch average. Naanee is only missing opportunity and the "Naanee haters" just cannot see that. Ignore all past opportunities and focus on value for THIS YEAR. He MAY be a better receiver than Floyd.

Is it possible that AJ Smith is not going to pay V Jax because he has capable receivers on the roster? Do you think Naanee was just lucky catching 88.9% of the balls thrown his way? Do the Chargers have a great QB and offense? Don't you want a guy that has hands of gold on a great offense? Is it possible that Naanee is more in tune with Rivers since he used to be a QB? If the Chargers drafted "Naanee with the 172nd overall selection in the 5th round of the 2007 NFL draft based on his great potential" that his potential can actually come to fruition?

C'mon people. Don't you want to draft players with great potential on great offenses with late round ADP?

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

This is as good an opportunity as Naanee may ever have at being fantasy relevant...

Let us look at the careers of the two guys starting for the Chargers this year:

-Floyd who will be 29 in september: 97 catches, 1597 yards, 9 td's

-Naanee who will be 27 in september: 40 catches, 375 yards, 2 td's

Both of these guys seem more than capable in terms of talent and skill set of being much better than their careers indicate. The problem here is we don't know who will end up being the favorite target of Rivers this coming year. V-Jax has been the man the last couple seasons but even then he only had reception totals of 68 and 59.

Therefore I don't think Floyd or Naanee are as talented as V-Jax and therefore I think the two of these guys will have similar stats to each other and both be in the WR 3 territory and if one does end up emerging some he will be just an ok WR 2.

 

[tommyGunZ]

In order to get Naanee as a great value, there has to be Naanee haters. I expected this thread to get many of them.

Naanee is outstandingly efficient. Last year he caught 88.9% of his targets. He led the league among qualifying receivers. Naanee dropped just one of his 27 targets, and paced the Chargers in yards-after-catch average. Naanee is only missing opportunity and the "Naanee haters" just cannot see that. Ignore all past opportunities and focus on value for THIS YEAR. He MAY be a better receiver than Floyd.

Is it possible that AJ Smith is not going to pay V Jax because he has capable receivers on the roster? Do you think Naanee was just lucky catching 88.9% of the ball thrown his way? Do the Chargers have a great QB and offense? Don't you want a guy that has hands of gold on a great offense? Is it possible that Naanee is more in tune with Rivers since he used to be a QB? If the Chargers drafted "Naanee with the 172nd overall selection in the 5th round of the 2007 NFL draft based on his great potential" that his potential and actually come to fruition?

C'mon people. Don't you want to draft players with great potential on great offenses with late round ADP?

I agree with this post - in particular Velveeta's points about Naanee's sure hands, his shiftiness (YAC), and his experience as a QB. Coupled with Naanee's physical ability and the current opportunity make him an excellent sleeper. I heard an interview with Rivers recently where he mentioned Naanee's experience as a QB and suggested it really made a difference in the two of them being on the same page.Again, do not go overboard with Naanee, but he could be an excellent WR3 or flex guy if things break right this season. I'm gobbling him up in every league I can.

 

[Tau837]

I'm not a hater. I like him, and, as a Chargers fan, I hope he performs better than I am expecting. But his past performance is unimpressive, and I don't see any reason he will get a particularly large number of targets, which will limit his opportunity.If you disagree, explain why. The only thing I can really see to justify people being high on him is gut feel.

I think Naanee's past performance has been very impressive. Didn't he lead the league in catches/target last year? The only thing holding Naanee back in the past has been opportunity. I think he'll flourish with VJax gone. Not 80-1100-10 flourish, but 64-800-6ish. And while I'm high on Floyd as well, we still don't know who #17 will trust more when his WR options are Naanee and Floyd. I think Naanee is an outstanding sleeper at this point.

Sure, Naanee had a great catch percentage (82.8%) and had good YAC numbers last year. But that is largely for the same reason that he had such a low 10.1 ypr -- he was targeted almost exclusively on very shallow routes and behind the line. Here are his splits from last yearass Thrown: Behind line 5/41/0 (8.2 ypr, 15 long)Pass Thrown: 1-10 yds. 15/144/0 (9.6 ypr, 23 long)Pass Thrown: 11-20 yds. 3/37/1 (12.3 ypr, 20 long)Pass Thrown: 21-30 yds. 1/20/1 (20.0 ypr, 20 long)He is 27 and in his career he has caught a total of 1 pass thrown 21+ yards and just 5 more passes thrown 11+ yards. He hasn't shown that he can make plays downfield at this point. Floyd, on the other hand, has shown that. And the element they will miss with Jackson gone is downfield, not shallow routes.Who knows? Maybe Naanee will be great and it will turn out he just had not been given the opportunity to make plays downfield. But that is nothing but speculation at this point.I think it's wrong to say we don't know who Rivers will trust more... at this point, he has completed more than 80 passes to Floyd in live action... more than twice as many as he has completed to Naanee. Floyd is known to run good routes and have great hands. Just midseason last year, he was chosen to start when Chambers left... Naanee wasn't. Why would Rivers possibly trust Naanee more?

 

[Touchdown There]

Also, here is a basic breakdown of 2010 projections I pulled from CBSsports:

Rivers: 4200 passing yards

Gates: 1100 receiving yards

Mathews: 243 receiving yards (which seems really low, but rookies always have low projections)

Sproles: 357 receiving yards

4200-1100-243-357 = 2500 yards receiving projected to come from somewhere else. It will take between 1100-1200 receiving yards to do low WR1 numbers.

Yes, I did draft Cedric Benson last year in as many leagues as possible out of MATH and sheer opportunity. Smart owners will take the Floyd/Naanee combo on draft day.

 

[Tau837]

Also, here is a basic breakdown of 2010 projections I pulled from CBSsports:

Rivers: 4200 passing yards

Gates: 1100 receiving yards

Mathews: 243 receiving yards (which seems really low, but rookies always have low projections)

Sproles: 357 receiving yards

4200-1100-243-357 = 2500 yards receiving projected to come from somewhere else. It will take between 1100-1200 receiving yards to do low WR1 numbers.

Yes, I did draft Cedric Benson last year in as many leagues as possible out of MATH and sheer opportunity. Smart owners will take the Floyd/Naanee combo on draft day.

If Jackson doesn't play, IMO it will break down something like this:QBs 4100

Gates 1100

Floyd 1050

Naanee 650

Sproles 450

Mathews 200

Other WRs 300

Other TEs 150

Other RBs 200

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I'm not a hater. I like him, and, as a Chargers fan, I hope he performs better than I am expecting. But his past performance is unimpressive, and I don't see any reason he will get a particularly large number of targets, which will limit his opportunity.

If you disagree, explain why. The only thing I can really see to justify people being high on him is gut feel.

I think Naanee's past performance has been very impressive. Didn't he lead the league in catches/target last year? The only thing holding Naanee back in the past has been opportunity. I think he'll flourish with VJax gone. Not 80-1100-10 flourish, but 64-800-6ish. And while I'm high on Floyd as well, we still don't know who #17 will trust more when his WR options are Naanee and Floyd. I think Naanee is an outstanding sleeper at this point.

Sure, Naanee had a great catch percentage (82.8%) and had good YAC numbers last year. But that is largely for the same reason that he had such a low 10.1 ypr -- he was targeted almost exclusively on very shallow routes and behind the line. Here are his splits from last yearass Thrown: Behind line 5/41/0 (8.2 ypr, 15 long)

Pass Thrown: 1-10 yds. 15/144/0 (9.6 ypr, 23 long)

Pass Thrown: 11-20 yds. 3/37/1 (12.3 ypr, 20 long)

Pass Thrown: 21-30 yds. 1/20/1 (20.0 ypr, 20 long)

He is 27 and in his career he has caught a total of 1 pass thrown 21+ yards and just 5 more passes thrown 11+ yards. He hasn't shown that he can make plays downfield at this point. Floyd, on the other hand, has shown that. And the element they will miss with Jackson gone is downfield, not shallow routes.

Who knows? Maybe Naanee will be great and it will turn out he just had not been given the opportunity to make plays downfield.

But that is nothing but speculation at this point.

I think it's wrong to say we don't know who Rivers will trust more... at this point, he has completed more than 80 passes to Floyd in live action... more than twice as many as he has completed to Naanee. Floyd is known to run good routes and have great hands. Just midseason last year, he was chosen to start when Chambers left... Naanee wasn't. Why would Rivers possibly trust Naanee more?

It would be interesting to go back in time and see if you would have applied the same logic to Miles Austin before last season. Patrick Crayton had started over Austin quite a bit, had caught more passes from Romo, etc. I get your broader point, but also think it's a bit misguided to pretend that past history is a perfect indicator of the future.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

I'm not a hater. I like him, and, as a Chargers fan, I hope he performs better than I am expecting. But his past performance is unimpressive, and I don't see any reason he will get a particularly large number of targets, which will limit his opportunity.

If you disagree, explain why. The only thing I can really see to justify people being high on him is gut feel.

I think Naanee's past performance has been very impressive. Didn't he lead the league in catches/target last year? The only thing holding Naanee back in the past has been opportunity. I think he'll flourish with VJax gone. Not 80-1100-10 flourish, but 64-800-6ish. And while I'm high on Floyd as well, we still don't know who #17 will trust more when his WR options are Naanee and Floyd. I think Naanee is an outstanding sleeper at this point.

Sure, Naanee had a great catch percentage (82.8%) and had good YAC numbers last year. But that is largely for the same reason that he had such a low 10.1 ypr -- he was targeted almost exclusively on very shallow routes and behind the line. Here are his splits from last yearass Thrown: Behind line 5/41/0 (8.2 ypr, 15 long)

Pass Thrown: 1-10 yds. 15/144/0 (9.6 ypr, 23 long)

Pass Thrown: 11-20 yds. 3/37/1 (12.3 ypr, 20 long)

Pass Thrown: 21-30 yds. 1/20/1 (20.0 ypr, 20 long)

He is 27 and in his career he has caught a total of 1 pass thrown 21+ yards and just 5 more passes thrown 11+ yards. He hasn't shown that he can make plays downfield at this point. Floyd, on the other hand, has shown that. And the element they will miss with Jackson gone is downfield, not shallow routes.

Who knows? Maybe Naanee will be great and it will turn out he just had not been given the opportunity to make plays downfield.

But that is nothing but speculation at this point.

I think it's wrong to say we don't know who Rivers will trust more... at this point, he has completed more than 80 passes to Floyd in live action... more than twice as many as he has completed to Naanee. Floyd is known to run good routes and have great hands. Just midseason last year, he was chosen to start when Chambers left... Naanee wasn't. Why would Rivers possibly trust Naanee more?

It would be interesting to go back in time and see if you would have applied the same logic to Miles Austin before last season. Patrick Crayton had started over Austin quite a bit, had caught more passes from Romo, etc. I get your broader point, but also think it's a bit misguided to pretend that past history is a perfect indicator of the future.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Also, here is a basic breakdown of 2010 projections I pulled from CBSsports:

Rivers: 4200 passing yards

Gates: 1100 receiving yards

Mathews: 243 receiving yards (which seems really low, but rookies always have low projections)

Sproles: 357 receiving yards

4200-1100-243-357 = 2500 yards receiving projected to come from somewhere else. It will take between 1100-1200 receiving yards to do low WR1 numbers.

Yes, I did draft Cedric Benson last year in as many leagues as possible out of MATH and sheer opportunity. Smart owners will take the Floyd/Naanee combo on draft day.

If Jackson doesn't play, IMO it will break down something like this:QBs 4100

Gates 1100

Floyd 1050

Naanee 650

Sproles 450

Mathews 200

Other WRs 300

Other TEs 150

Other RBs 200

sproles might get 450 yds vs the chiefs this year in receiving...

 

[Tau837]

I'm not a hater. I like him, and, as a Chargers fan, I hope he performs better than I am expecting. But his past performance is unimpressive, and I don't see any reason he will get a particularly large number of targets, which will limit his opportunity.

If you disagree, explain why. The only thing I can really see to justify people being high on him is gut feel.

I think Naanee's past performance has been very impressive. Didn't he lead the league in catches/target last year? The only thing holding Naanee back in the past has been opportunity. I think he'll flourish with VJax gone. Not 80-1100-10 flourish, but 64-800-6ish. And while I'm high on Floyd as well, we still don't know who #17 will trust more when his WR options are Naanee and Floyd. I think Naanee is an outstanding sleeper at this point.

Sure, Naanee had a great catch percentage (82.8%) and had good YAC numbers last year. But that is largely for the same reason that he had such a low 10.1 ypr -- he was targeted almost exclusively on very shallow routes and behind the line. Here are his splits from last yearass Thrown: Behind line 5/41/0 (8.2 ypr, 15 long)

Pass Thrown: 1-10 yds. 15/144/0 (9.6 ypr, 23 long)

Pass Thrown: 11-20 yds. 3/37/1 (12.3 ypr, 20 long)

Pass Thrown: 21-30 yds. 1/20/1 (20.0 ypr, 20 long)

He is 27 and in his career he has caught a total of 1 pass thrown 21+ yards and just 5 more passes thrown 11+ yards. He hasn't shown that he can make plays downfield at this point. Floyd, on the other hand, has shown that. And the element they will miss with Jackson gone is downfield, not shallow routes.

Who knows? Maybe Naanee will be great and it will turn out he just had not been given the opportunity to make plays downfield.

But that is nothing but speculation at this point.

I think it's wrong to say we don't know who Rivers will trust more... at this point, he has completed more than 80 passes to Floyd in live action... more than twice as many as he has completed to Naanee. Floyd is known to run good routes and have great hands. Just midseason last year, he was chosen to start when Chambers left... Naanee wasn't. Why would Rivers possibly trust Naanee more?

It would be interesting to go back in time and see if you would have applied the same logic to Miles Austin before last season. Patrick Crayton had started over Austin quite a bit, had caught more passes from Romo, etc. I get your broader point, but also think it's a bit misguided to pretend that past history is a perfect indicator of the future.

I'm sure I would not have predicted what happened with Austin. However, I think these situations are apples and oranges for these reasons:1. IMO Floyd is quite a bit better than Crayton.

2. Austin broke out at age 25. Naanee is 27.

3. Prior to last year's breakout, Austin had averaged 19.7 ypr and had 3 TDs on 18 career catches, both showing good potential upside and both in sharp contrast to Naanee's past performance in ypr and TD scoring.

4. Austin is an example of the exception, not the rule.

I never said past history is a perfect indicator of the future. I just don't see any indicators that suggest Naanee can be a top 40 WR this year, and that appears to be what people are suggesting in this and other threads.

 

[loose circuits]

Naane was a raw football player who has been taught the position of WR. If he's figured it out, the upside is there. Heard nothing but good things about him and excited he'll get the opportunity

 

[JohnnyU]

1. IMO Floyd is quite a bit better than Crayton.

So you FINALLY admit Naanee is better than Floyd. After all these years....

 

[KCitons]

If you like Aromashadu, you would probably like Naanee. DA is 26 and just making his move.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

I'm not a hater. I like him, and, as a Chargers fan, I hope he performs better than I am expecting. But his past performance is unimpressive, and I don't see any reason he will get a particularly large number of targets, which will limit his opportunity.

If you disagree, explain why. The only thing I can really see to justify people being high on him is gut feel.

I think Naanee's past performance has been very impressive. Didn't he lead the league in catches/target last year? The only thing holding Naanee back in the past has been opportunity. I think he'll flourish with VJax gone. Not 80-1100-10 flourish, but 64-800-6ish. And while I'm high on Floyd as well, we still don't know who #17 will trust more when his WR options are Naanee and Floyd. I think Naanee is an outstanding sleeper at this point.

Sure, Naanee had a great catch percentage (82.8%) and had good YAC numbers last year. But that is largely for the same reason that he had such a low 10.1 ypr -- he was targeted almost exclusively on very shallow routes and behind the line. Here are his splits from last yearass Thrown: Behind line 5/41/0 (8.2 ypr, 15 long)

Pass Thrown: 1-10 yds. 15/144/0 (9.6 ypr, 23 long)

Pass Thrown: 11-20 yds. 3/37/1 (12.3 ypr, 20 long)

Pass Thrown: 21-30 yds. 1/20/1 (20.0 ypr, 20 long)

He is 27 and in his career he has caught a total of 1 pass thrown 21+ yards and just 5 more passes thrown 11+ yards. He hasn't shown that he can make plays downfield at this point. Floyd, on the other hand, has shown that. And the element they will miss with Jackson gone is downfield, not shallow routes.

Who knows? Maybe Naanee will be great and it will turn out he just had not been given the opportunity to make plays downfield.

But that is nothing but speculation at this point.

I think it's wrong to say we don't know who Rivers will trust more... at this point, he has completed more than 80 passes to Floyd in live action... more than twice as many as he has completed to Naanee. Floyd is known to run good routes and have great hands. Just midseason last year, he was chosen to start when Chambers left... Naanee wasn't. Why would Rivers possibly trust Naanee more?

It would be interesting to go back in time and see if you would have applied the same logic to Miles Austin before last season. Patrick Crayton had started over Austin quite a bit, had caught more passes from Romo, etc. I get your broader point, but also think it's a bit misguided to pretend that past history is a perfect indicator of the future.

I'm sure I would not have predicted what happened with Austin. However, I think these situations are apples and oranges for these reasons:1. IMO Floyd is quite a bit better than Crayton.

2. Austin broke out at age 25. Naanee is 27.

3. Prior to last year's breakout, Austin had averaged 19.7 ypr and had 3 TDs on 18 career catches, both showing good potential upside and both in sharp contrast to Naanee's past performance in ypr and TD scoring.

4. Austin is an example of the exception, not the rule.

I never said past history is a perfect indicator of the future. I just don't see any indicators that suggest Naanee can be a top 40 WR this year, and that appears to be what people are suggesting in this and other threads.

-Can you fill me in on what routes Naanee was asked to run in the past which may also be one of the reasons his YPR is lower and his catch percentage is/was so high.-I don't think anyone here is saying that Naanee is going to be Austin but are rather trying to say that it would not be shocking to see him over take Floyd who is not an accomplished seasoned pro at this stage.

-Also has Floyd really broken out yet? and if so he did so at 28 accumulating a grand total of 45 catches for 776 yards and 1 td which I would not exactly say is a great year.

-I think Floyd is in the lead at this time to be the breakout guy this year in SD, but the way you are dismissing Naanee over Floyd seems a little strange to me. I don't think it would be surprising to anyone to see Nannee pass Floyd.

 

[Tau837]

1. IMO Floyd is quite a bit better than Crayton.

So you FINALLY admit Naanee is better than Floyd. After all these years....

 

[Tau837]

-Can you fill me in on what routes Naanee was asked to run in the past which may also be one of the reasons his YPR is lower and his catch percentage is/was so high.

I already indirectly commented on this. Yes, he ran shallow routes. He is 27 and has 1 catch in his career where the ball was thrown 21+ yards.

-I don't think anyone here is saying that Naanee is going to be Austin but are rather trying to say that it would not be shocking to see him over take Floyd who is not an accomplished seasoned pro at this stage.

Most wouldn't find it shocking. I would.

-Also has Floyd really broken out yet? and if so he did so at 28 accumulating a grand total of 45 catches for 776 yards and 1 td which I would not exactly say is a great year.

Yes, he broke out for a stretch of several games in 2008 before he got hurt. I've posted about that and about a number of other positives about Floyd in a number of threads, so if you are really interested, you can search for those comments.

-I think Floyd is in the lead at this time to be the breakout guy this year in SD, but the way you are dismissing Naanee over Floyd seems a little strange to me. I don't think it would be surprising to anyone to see Nannee pass Floyd.

Most people wouldn't be surprised. I would.