mightyeskimo
Footballguy
What's up with LJ being #2 in redraft and dynasty rankings? Why the downgrade? Just because of Priest, who hasn't been cleared to play yet? Or was it Welbourn?
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LJ #2? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter mightyeskimo
- Start date
Darth Cheney
Footballguy
Shaun Alexander down?
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KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
To completely ignore the changes in KC would be silly. Loss of a stud RT, loss of a stud blocking FB.
It will be interesting to see if Herman Edwards (who I think is good for RBs), can counteract these changes.
It will be interesting to see if Herman Edwards (who I think is good for RBs), can counteract these changes.
Synthesizer
Footballguy
I would think it has more to do with Tomlinson being that good. First, although Tomlinson has quite a few more miles on his tires than LJ, they're still both the same age. Tomlinson is the safer bet now and for the future because he has shown that he will be top 3 no matter what his situation. I think they both have the same upside (2300 total yards and 25 TDs) but Tomlinson has less downside.
hutchins929
Footballguy
to add to the LT over LJ discussion. On top of the other reasons in this thread, San Diego has an easier schedule... Tomlinson is the easy pick at #1!!! No Doubt!!!
avoiding injuries
Footballguy
1,2 and 3 are the same to me. I have a 25% chance of getting one of them. :fingerscrossed:
TheBradyBunch
Footballguy
Another small factor could be the progress of Philip Rivers. I've heard nothing but rave reviews about Rivers out of SD this offseason..which is good news for guys like LT, Gates and McCardell. Nothing earth-shattering, but when the top 3 is so close, these are the little things that can make a difference.
diesel7982
Footballguy
John Tait has been gone quite some time now.
SSOG
Moderator
I think there's a difference between "good for RBs" and "#### Vermeil".Herm Edwards may be good for RBs, but #### Vermeil was a fantasy GOD when it came to his RBs. I mean, when DERRICK BLAYLOCK was starting, he was a top 5 RB. Add to this the Priest Holmes seasons and the Marshall Faulk seasons, and I really don't see how Herm Edwards can be considered anything other than a downgrade. The only question is, how big of a downgrade is he?
I would agree here, too. Tomlinson has finished in the top 5 in season-ending VBD for 4 straight seasons now. That is *ABSURD*. Even when he was injured, he was still a stud. His downside is so high that I would take Tomlinson over Johnson with the #1 overall.
Portis 26
Madden Freak
As I never tire of pointing out, LT2's best numbers career numbers corresponded with the worst QB play in San Diego.Similarly, there have been any number of RBs over the years that have done best when they had a horrible QB.The reason is simple - when you have poor QB play and a stud HB, offensive co-ordinators will tend to play it safe and hand it off to their HB all the time.This obviously isn't a universal truth, just an intriguing trend.Whenever I hear a RB getting pimped because of improved QB play, my first reaction is: not so fast.
SoloMatisse
Footballguy
Washington got improved QB play last year........how'd THAT work out for your boy?? They got embarassing QB play the year before.......
Portis 26
Madden Freak
I think #26's improved numbers came from better offensive line play and better play calling - they took more advantage of his elusiveness and speed instead of trying to slam him into the line like the second coming of John Riggins all day. I don't think QB play was a major factor to be honest.
Winston Wolfe
The Cleaner
The FBGs rankings only include rankings from the last 7 days. A couple staff members that have LJ ranked #1 fell off the rankings.
That is what I can gather by looking at it.
That is what I can gather by looking at it.
SoloMatisse
Footballguy
I agree that Jansen's return was a big help and led to improved line play. That said, Portis is not putting up those kindof #s last year if Brunell is doing what he did in '04, which was completing less than 50% of his passes and throwing 7 TDs for a Q rating of less than 64. Those are scrub QB #s and they lead to scrub RB #s. Brunell goes down, and Campbell steps in, you'll see first hand how good that 'feed the ball to your back' theory works out with an underachieving QB.
Portis 26
Madden Freak
I appreciate that's your theory, but it doesn't tally with a substantial body of the evidence. For example, LT2 had a big year in 2003 (1645 yards and 13 TDs) despite horrible QB play (Brees 15 INTs and 11 TDs).Despite much better play from Brees in 2004, LT2 had less yards although slightly more TDs (1335 and 17 TDs).How do you explain that?There are plenty of other examples of RBs having great seasons despite very questioanable QB play - most of Corey Dillon's early career, Jamal Lewis's early years, Herschel Walker in 1988 despite Steve Pelluer, Barry Sanders with a succession of questionable Lion QBs, Eric Dickerson with some questionable Rams and Colts QBs, Christian Okoye and other Barry Word in the early 90s with some very average QB play, Ricky Williams and Jay Fiedler... and so on and so forth.I am not saying that having a bad QB makes a RB put up better numbers by definition - what I am saying is that it's by no means clear that having a great QB results in better numbers for that RB.
GRIDIRON ASSASSIN
Footballguy
Everybody knows that Penn State RBs suck, that's why. 
nygiants56
Footballguy
ESPN is running a ranking of the offenses in the NFL , and ranked SD 29th at the QB spot. eeessh.with Rivers potentially setup for a struggle this season, won't teams stack the line and stop LT2?
and lately , preseason w-l records of opponents mean nothing. Last year, Miami was faced with what was supposed to be the toughest schedule in the NFL..Vegas line was 5 wins, o/u..when it was over, it turned out they played the easiest schedule...
zamboni
Footballguy
Yes, just as they did when Flutie was QB and Brees was an unseasoned sophomore. LT is just that good - it doesn't matter who is back there.Besides, as mentioned previously, I think Rivers versus Brees may actually help LT's production since they're going to need to lean on LT even more until Rivers is comfortable at QB.
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these rankings are rather fluid, and tend to flucuate with every news worthy item comming from each teamthe KC O-line didn't all of a sudden get older this week--news of a retirement did persuade a couple staffers to drop LJ into a virtual tie w/LT...Shick! has LJ 3rd for some inconceivable reason, scoring 5-1st and 5-2nd for LT and 5-4-1 for Johnson
personally, I've got a lot bigger questions regarding Mr Tomlinson, as he faces life w/a new QB---he'll get his carries, but I don't see him scoring near the TD's LJ does, keeping Johnson #1 on my RB board
Synthesizer
Footballguy
Back in 2003 teams were stacking the line against Tomlinson because the passing game was awful.... and he averaged 5.3 yards per carry. He broke a ton of long runs that year because he just had to make it through that first line of defenders and then he was gone.
Just adding a little fuel to the fire, but why is Alexander lost in this conversation? The man has been a fantasy STUD! He tied the TD record last year and has been a pillar of consistency for some time now. When push comes to shove on draft day I could see a lot of people still picking Alexander #1.
Wingnut
Footballguy
Id like to add that of the Big 3 RBs, Alexander's situation has changed the LEAST. Im not yet sure who Im going to take at #1 this year.Sure, Tomlinson had great seasons with horrible QB play, but he has alot more miles on him now than he did then. Will that have an effect??? Seeing 8 man fronts now versus when he had about 1000 less carries (and hits) on his body could make a difference. Still a stud no doubt, but question marks are question marks, and they take away a little bit of the safeness of the pick.
With LJ alot more has changed. Vermeil and Saunders are gone, Richardson is gone, and a stud RT is gone. On top of that, we dont know how Herm will use Priest if he comes back. No doubt in my mind that LJ will be a stud, but you cant really say hes the "safest" #1 pick with all the unknowns.
Tomlinson had a nagging Groin injury all 2004. With the improvement of the offense, Tomlinson's TD total has grown. I do think Brees' development affected Tomlinson in a negative way, in regards to his reception numbers. Because Brees' looked down-field more, when in the past, he'd dump it off to Tomlinson. Because of his, I see Tomlinson getting into the 60-70 catch range with Rivers at QB.
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SSOG
Moderator
LT2's numbers suffered in 2004 only because he was nursing nagging injuries the entire season. Also, I feel like Tomlinson's numbers have been lower in the last 2 years than they were in 2003 because of the sheer size of his workload. He just wears down. Look at his gamelogs from the first 11 weeks last year (24.4 points per game, only UNDER 12 points once) compared to his logs from his last 5 weeks (9.8 points per game, only OVER 12 points once.
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
The best thing that can happen to a fantasy RB is good health and heavy workload.A downgrade for KC or the offense in general, but I dunno about RB.
Herm is not a guy who will be accused of using too much RBBC, or not giving his primary back enough touches.
Larry will get at least the same workload he got last year. I see Vermeil to Edwards as a wash as far as RB workload.
So unless you expect the offense to completely suffer under Edwards, along with a dismantling of the o-line, I see no coaching obstances to LJ staying elite in 2006.
The only thing I do see is a smaller upside. Even if LJ ends up RB1, he won't be heads and shoulders above everyone else the way Faulk and Priest were in their best years. He'll still put up good enough numbers to compete for #1, but he won't walk away with the title.
