Logic problem (1 Viewer)

[Random]

Here are the coin flip analogies depending on how the question is asked/interpreted:

You flip a pair of coins 100 times. How many sets are head/head if you only use the sets with at least one head in them - 66.66%

You flip a pair of coins and look at one of them and its a "head". Whats the odds the other one is a "head" - 50.00%

Incorrect. As I indicated, this is an even better example than the boys/girls one of 66%.Again, the results are complete before you looked at one of them. The possible results before looking is:

1. heads/heads

2. heads/tails

3. tails/tails

4. tails/heads

After looking at one of them, you know that option three could not have happened. With the other available three options, tails as the opposite probability to heads happens 66% of the time.

Which part is incorrect?

 

[FlapJacks]

There's 50 % chance he's talking about his youngest kid

that gives us

BG

BB

There's 50 % chance he's talking about his oldest kid

that gives us

GB

BB

multiplying the probablities:

YBG = .25

OGB = .25

YBB = .25

OBB =.25

seems like 50/50...

feel free to attempt to debunk

 

[videoguy505]

The answer is 2/3. If a guy has two children, there are four equally-likely possibilities for their sequence of birth and genders:boy-boyboy-girlgirl-boygirl-girlWe know the last one didn't happen, but the remaining three are all still equally likely, so 2/3 of the time his other kid is a girl. And there's a probability of 1 that she can't drive as well as most men.

What if the question was phrased as:A man and his son walk up to you and say hello. The man says he has another child at home. What are the odds the other child is a girl?Wouldn't it be 50/50 in that case?

No, it's still 2/3. If the guy told you that his younger child was at home, then it would be 50/50.

I still think once you know that you are talking about one child, the odds are 50/50. Nothing else matters.What if the guy had 100 children and 99 of them were boys (and there is no tricky stuff about he can only have boys - it just happened to work out that way). The odds of the last child being a girl is still 50/50. You don't care about the previous trials.

I'm with kutta. Each child is an independent event.Isn't this like asking the following: "a man flips a coin twice, one of the results is heads, what are the odds that the other flip resulted in tails?"It doesn't matter what the other result was, any given toss of the coin yields a 50% chance of tails. Same with the sex of a child.

Run it.2/3rds

 

[Dave Baker]

Here are the coin flip analogies depending on how the question is asked/interpreted:

You flip a pair of coins 100 times. How many sets have a "head" in them if you only use the sets with at least one head in them - 66.66%

You flip a pair of coins and look at one of them and its a "head". Whats the odds the other one is a "head" - 50.00%

Incorrect. As I indicated, this is an even better example than the boys/girls one of 66%.Again, the results are complete before you looked at one of them. The possible results before looking is:

1. heads/heads

2. heads/tails

3. tails/tails

4. tails/heads

After looking at one of them, you know that option three could not have happened. With the other available three options, tails as the opposite probability to heads happens 66% of the time.

Which part is incorrect?

The part where you indicate the right answer is 50%. That's the wrong answer.

 

[Random]

You flip a pair of coins 100 times. How many sets have a "head" in them if you only use the sets with at least one head in them - 66.66%

Wouldn't that be 100%?

yes, and I fixed it, thanks.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Here's a concrete demonstration that the correct answer is 2/3, which doesn't rely on Excel:

Suppose we have 100 families, and each family is going to have two kids. When the first kid shows up, 50 families will get a boy and 50 families will get a girl.

Now consider the 50 families that started with a boy. 25 of those families will get a boy as their second child (Boy-Boy) and 25 will get a girl (Boy-Girl).

Now for the 50 families that started with a girl. 25 will now get a boy (Girl-Boy) and 25 will get another girl (Girl-Girl).

Add up the numbers. 25 families have two boys, 50 have a boy and a girl, and 25 have two girls. When somebody tells you that he has one son, we know his family isn't in the last group. Instead, he's either one of the 25 that has two boys or one of the 50 with one of each. Therefore there's a 2/3 chance that his other kid is a girl.

 

[Random]

Here are the coin flip analogies depending on how the question is asked/interpreted:

You flip a pair of coins 100 times. How many sets have a "head" in them if you only use the sets with at least one head in them - 66.66%

You flip a pair of coins and look at one of them and its a "head". Whats the odds the other one is a "head" - 50.00%

Incorrect. As I indicated, this is an even better example than the boys/girls one of 66%.Again, the results are complete before you looked at one of them. The possible results before looking is:

1. heads/heads

2. heads/tails

3. tails/tails

4. tails/heads

After looking at one of them, you know that option three could not have happened. With the other available three options, tails as the opposite probability to heads happens 66% of the time.

Which part is incorrect?

The part where you indicate the right answer is 50%. That's the wrong answer.

Not if you follow directions. Completely.

 

[videoguy505]

Here are the coin flip analogies depending on how the question is asked/interpreted:

You flip a pair of coins 100 times. How many sets are head/head if you only use the sets with at least one head in them - 66.66%

You flip a pair of coins and look at one of them and its a "head". Whats the odds the other one is a "head" - 50.00%

Incorrect. As I indicated, this is an even better example than the boys/girls one of 66%.Again, the results are complete before you looked at one of them. The possible results before looking is:

1. heads/heads

2. heads/tails

3. tails/tails

4. tails/heads

After looking at one of them, you know that option three could not have happened. With the other available three options, tails as the opposite probability to heads happens 66% of the time.

Which part is incorrect?

"You flip a pair of coins 100 times. How many sets are head/head if you only use the sets with at least one head in them - 66.66%"...should read "How many sets have a tails in them if you only use...", I think.

 

[DaVinci]

Ivan has convinced me.

 

[Cavalier]

Lets make a bet. We will chose 1000 random families with two children and one male. Everytime the other child is a boy I will give you 1 dollar. Everytime the other child is a girl you give me 2 dollars. Should we break even? Then take the bet.

 

[Cavalier]

Lets make a bet. We will chose 1000 random families with two children and one male. Everytime the other child is a boy I will give you 1 dollar. Everytime the other child is a girl you give me 2 dollars. Should we break even? Then take the bet.

ANY TAKERS?

 

[FatMax]

Lets make a bet. We will chose 1000 random families with two children and one male. Everytime the other child is a boy I will give you 1 dollar. Everytime the other child is a girl you give me 2 dollars. Should we break even? Then take the bet.

Correct, but you have it backwards. You'd have to give the $2.Either way, if you're so confident in your numbers, let's change the number from $2 to $1.25. If it is really 50-50 like you say, you will still have a huge advantage. And I would be willing to paypal any amount you want to bet.

 

[Random]

Lets make a bet. We will chose 1000 random families with two children and one male. Everytime the other child is a boy I will give you 1 dollar. Everytime the other child is a girl you give me 2 dollars. Should we break even? Then take the bet.

ANY TAKERS?

How does this represent what we're talking about?

 

[guncrib]

I have no idea why anyone is bringing up the possibilities of what 100 families would do nor about how many times you can flip a coin. The Dude said his son. We're not dealing with math here, we're dealing with English. If I was talking about my daughters, I would specify which one I am talking about. The youngest or the oldest. If I'm talking about my son. I only have one. Therefore by saying his son, the implication is he has only one. If he has more than one, then obviously the other kid is a step-child and he hates him.

 

[Cavalier]

Lets make a bet. We will chose 1000 random families with two children and one male. Everytime the other child is a boy I will give you 1 dollar. Everytime the other child is a girl you give me 2 dollars. Should we break even? Then take the bet.

Correct, but you have it backwards. You'd have to give the $2.Either way, if you're so confident in your numbers, let's change the number from $2 to $1.50. If it is really 50-50 like you say, you will still have a huge advantage. And I would be willing to paypal any amount you want to bet.

Every child bet is 3 dollars. You are 67% to win so, when you win you get a dollar, when I win I get 2 dollars. Take it.

 

[FatMax]

Lets make a bet. We will chose 1000 random families with two children and one male. Everytime the other child is a boy I will give you 1 dollar. Everytime the other child is a girl you give me 2 dollars. Should we break even? Then take the bet.

Correct, but you have it backwards. You'd have to give the $2.Either way, if you're so confident in your numbers, let's change the number from $2 to $1.50. If it is really 50-50 like you say, you will still have a huge advantage. And I would be willing to paypal any amount you want to bet.

Every child bet is 3 dollars. You are 67% to win so, when you win you get a dollar, when I win I get 2 dollars. Take it.

You need to brush up on your statistics.

 

[TheAristocrat]

For being such a relatively bright group of people, I'm surprised that half the FFA can't do logic or -5^2 math.

 

[INRIhab]

Here's a concrete demonstration that the correct answer is 2/3, which doesn't rely on Excel:Suppose we have 100 families, and each family is going to have two kids. When the first kid shows up, 50 families will get a boy and 50 families will get a girl. Now consider the 50 families that started with a boy. 25 of those families will get a boy as their second child (Boy-Boy) and 25 will get a girl (Boy-Girl). Now for the 50 families that started with a girl. 25 will now get a boy (Girl-Boy) and 25 will get another girl (Girl-Girl).Add up the numbers. 25 families have two boys, 50 have a boy and a girl, and 25 have two girls. When somebody tells you that he has one son, we know his family isn't in the last group. Instead, he's either one of the 25 that has two boys or one of the 50 with one of each. Therefore there's a 2/3 chance that his other kid is a girl.

I don't understand why the probability is conditional....Why does P(Girl | Boy) not equal P(Girl) ?

 

[biggamer3]

I have no idea why anyone is bringing up the possibilities of what 100 families would do nor about how many times you can flip a coin. The Dude said his son. We're not dealing with math here, we're dealing with English. If I was talking about my daughters, I would specify which one I am talking about. The youngest or the oldest. If I'm talking about my son. I only have one. Therefore by saying his son, the implication is he has only one. If he has more than one, then obviously the other kid is a step-child and he hates him.

not intended to be an English problem at all.Son was just referring to the one known sex, not deducing the fact the other could be a male as well

 

[Cavalier]

Lets make a bet. We will chose 1000 random families with two children and one male. Everytime the other child is a boy I will give you 1 dollar. Everytime the other child is a girl you give me 2 dollars. Should we break even? Then take the bet.

Correct, but you have it backwards. You'd have to give the $2.Either way, if you're so confident in your numbers, let's change the number from $2 to $1.50. If it is really 50-50 like you say, you will still have a huge advantage. And I would be willing to paypal any amount you want to bet.

Every child bet is 3 dollars. You are 67% to win so, when you win you get a dollar, when I win I get 2 dollars. Take it.

You need to brush up on your statistics.

You say the probability is 2/3 that the other child is a boy. All I am saying is lets make it practical and bet on those odds.

 

[kutta]

Ivan has convinced me.

I'm still fighting it.No one has addressed my question of a guy having 100 kids with 99 boys. Once I hear that explanation I might come around.

 

[bryhamm]

The answer is 2/3. If a guy has two children, there are four equally-likely possibilities for their sequence of birth and genders:boy-boyboy-girlgirl-boygirl-girlWe know the last one didn't happen, but the remaining three are all still equally likely, so 2/3 of the time his other kid is a girl. And there's a probability of 1 that she can't drive as well as most men.

What if the question was phrased as:A man and his son walk up to you and say hello. The man says he has another child at home. What are the odds the other child is a girl?Wouldn't it be 50/50 in that case?

No, it's still 2/3. If the guy told you that his younger child was at home, then it would be 50/50.

You are correct with your original answer of 2/3.But if the revised problem (not a twist of the original, but a completely new problem) is 50%. If a man walks up with his son and says "what are the odds that my other child at home is a girl" is 50%

 

[FatMax]

OK here is a simpler one. Why bank on breaking even?

Cavalier, you take boy. I'll take girl.

If it is a boy, I'll pay you $1.25

If it is a girl, you pay me $1.00

100 bets total. What do you think?

 

[INRIhab]

Lets make a bet. We will chose 1000 random families with two children and one male. Everytime the other child is a boy I will give you 1 dollar. Everytime the other child is a girl you give me 2 dollars. Should we break even? Then take the bet.

Correct, but you have it backwards. You'd have to give the $2.Either way, if you're so confident in your numbers, let's change the number from $2 to $1.50. If it is really 50-50 like you say, you will still have a huge advantage. And I would be willing to paypal any amount you want to bet.

Every child bet is 3 dollars. You are 67% to win so, when you win you get a dollar, when I win I get 2 dollars. Take it.

You need to brush up on your statistics.

You say the probability is 2/3 that the other child is a boy. All I am saying is lets make it practical and bet on those odds.

You would have to give the $2 for the expected value of the bet to be $0 (assuming the probs. are 2/3 and 1/3)Pretty sure that's not what you're saying though

Actually I'm right. With the dollar values you gave the expected value is always negative....

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

^-2

 

[FatMax]

Lets make a bet. We will chose 1000 random families with two children and one male. Everytime the other child is a boy I will give you 1 dollar. Everytime the other child is a girl you give me 2 dollars. Should we break even? Then take the bet.

Correct, but you have it backwards. You'd have to give the $2.Either way, if you're so confident in your numbers, let's change the number from $2 to $1.50. If it is really 50-50 like you say, you will still have a huge advantage. And I would be willing to paypal any amount you want to bet.

Every child bet is 3 dollars. You are 67% to win so, when you win you get a dollar, when I win I get 2 dollars. Take it.

You need to brush up on your statistics.

You say the probability is 2/3 that the other child is a boy. All I am saying is lets make it practical and bet on those odds.

No, we're saying that is 2/3 that the other child is a girl.

 

[FatMax]

Lets make a bet. We will chose 1000 random families with two children and one male. Everytime the other child is a boy I will give you 1 dollar. Everytime the other child is a girl you give me 2 dollars. Should we break even? Then take the bet.

Correct, but you have it backwards. You'd have to give the $2.Either way, if you're so confident in your numbers, let's change the number from $2 to $1.50. If it is really 50-50 like you say, you will still have a huge advantage. And I would be willing to paypal any amount you want to bet.

Every child bet is 3 dollars. You are 67% to win so, when you win you get a dollar, when I win I get 2 dollars. Take it.

You need to brush up on your statistics.

You say the probability is 2/3 that the other child is a boy. All I am saying is lets make it practical and bet on those odds.

You would have to give the $2 for the expected value of the bet to be $0 (assuming the probs. are 2/3 and 1/3)

Yeah, I already said that, but he glossed over it.

 

[BroadwayG]

This is just like the Let's make a deal switching boxes logic puzzler.

2/3

 

[Cavalier]

OK here is a simpler one. Why bank on breaking even?Cavalier, you take boy. I'll take girl.If it is a boy, I'll pay you $1.25If it is a girl, you pay me $1.00100 bets total. What do you think?

Why are you running from 2/3. I put the bet out there. Take it or admit you are wrong.

 

[Cavalier]

Lets make a bet. We will chose 1000 random families with two children and one male. Everytime the other child is a boy I will give you 1 dollar. Everytime the other child is a girl you give me 2 dollars. Should we break even? Then take the bet.

Correct, but you have it backwards. You'd have to give the $2.Either way, if you're so confident in your numbers, let's change the number from $2 to $1.50. If it is really 50-50 like you say, you will still have a huge advantage. And I would be willing to paypal any amount you want to bet.

Every child bet is 3 dollars. You are 67% to win so, when you win you get a dollar, when I win I get 2 dollars. Take it.

You need to brush up on your statistics.

You say the probability is 2/3 that the other child is a boy. All I am saying is lets make it practical and bet on those odds.

No, we're saying that is 2/3 that the other child is a girl.

Yeah, I read that blog crap and mixed it up.Let's bet on this.

 

[FatMax]

OK here is a simpler one. Why bank on breaking even?Cavalier, you take boy. I'll take girl.If it is a boy, I'll pay you $1.25If it is a girl, you pay me $1.00100 bets total. What do you think?

Why are you running from 2/3. I put the bet out there. Take it or admit you are wrong.

And I could accuse you of running away from your assertion that the odds are 50/50. It's a dumb bet. I set it up where either side has a chance of winning something. For me, if I won the original bet, I would win nothing. If they really are what you say they are, you could make some cash on the bet above. If I'm right, I'll make money. It is a much more fair bet. How confident are you?

 

[bryhamm]

Here are the coin flip analogies depending on how the question is asked/interpreted:

You flip a pair of coins 100 times. How many sets have a "head" in them if you only use the sets with at least one head in them - 66.66%

You flip a pair of coins and look at one of them and its a "head". Whats the odds the other one is a "head" - 50.00%

Incorrect. As I indicated, this is an even better example than the boys/girls one of 66%.Again, the results are complete before you looked at one of them. The possible results before looking is:

1. heads/heads

2. heads/tails

3. tails/tails

4. tails/heads

After looking at one of them, you know that option three could not have happened. With the other available three options, tails as the opposite probability to heads happens 66% of the time.

Wrong. The difference is because in the original problem you don't know whether the man is talking about the oldest child or the youngest child, so it keeps both #2 and #4 in play.In the coin example, you have looked at one coin (let's call it coin A) and are not wondering what the odds of coin B are. This is a different example.

 

[bryhamm]

But I am NOT disagreeing that the original answer is 2/3 because of the uncertainty of which child is being talked about.

 

[Cavalier]

OK here is a simpler one. Why bank on breaking even?Cavalier, you take boy. I'll take girl.If it is a boy, I'll pay you $1.25If it is a girl, you pay me $1.00100 bets total. What do you think?

Why are you running from 2/3. I put the bet out there. Take it or admit you are wrong.

And I could accuse you of running away from your assertion that the odds are 50/50. It's a dumb bet. I set it up where either side has a chance of winning something. For me, if I won the original bet, I would win nothing. If they really are what you say they are, you could make some cash on the bet above. If I'm right, I'll make money. It is a much more fair bet. How confident are you?

You pay me 2 bucks for boy. That are the odds you know are correct. I am the one that is wrong.. You have nothing to lose.

 

[guncrib]

I have no idea why anyone is bringing up the possibilities of what 100 families would do nor about how many times you can flip a coin. The Dude said his son. We're not dealing with math here, we're dealing with English. If I was talking about my daughters, I would specify which one I am talking about. The youngest or the oldest. If I'm talking about my son. I only have one. Therefore by saying his son, the implication is he has only one. If he has more than one, then obviously the other kid is a step-child and he hates him.

not intended to be an English problem at all.Son was just referring to the one known sex, not deducing the fact the other could be a male as well

It's not intended to be a math problem either. You called it a "logic" problem. Logic is not based on math. If I shot an arrow into the sky, then logically it will hit the ground somewhere. Now it can be explained where that arrow will fall by mathematics, but logically I dont have to get out a calculator to figure out that it WILL fall somewhere.

 

[adonis]

Yeah, 2/3 seems right.

Suppose you have 4 rooms, 3 of which have furniture in them, and 1 that doesn't.

Initially, your odds of guessing a particular room at random would be 1/4.

But say you were told a little information about the room and that the one you were thinking of had furniture in it, what would your odds be then of guessing the right room? Well, you'd rule out the room without furniture, and you'd only have 3 left, so it'd be 1/3.

 

[DaVinci]

Ivan has convinced me.

I'm still fighting it.No one has addressed my question of a guy having 100 kids with 99 boys. Once I hear that explanation I might come around.

Given 99 boys, there is 1 possibility of 100 boys and 100 possibilities of 99 boys and a girl (girl born first, second, third, etc.). The probability of the other child being a girl is 99% (100/101).

 

[kutta]

But I am NOT disagreeing that the original answer is 2/3 because of the uncertainty of which child is being talked about.

OK. So how about if the guy had 100 kids and 99 of them were boys? Do you still care about the uncertainty of which kid is being talked about? Or do you just know he has another kid at home, and the odds of that kid being a girl is 50/50?

 

[FatMax]

OK here is a simpler one. Why bank on breaking even?Cavalier, you take boy. I'll take girl.If it is a boy, I'll pay you $1.25If it is a girl, you pay me $1.00100 bets total. What do you think?

Why are you running from 2/3. I put the bet out there. Take it or admit you are wrong.

And I could accuse you of running away from your assertion that the odds are 50/50. It's a dumb bet. I set it up where either side has a chance of winning something. For me, if I won the original bet, I would win nothing. If they really are what you say they are, you could make some cash on the bet above. If I'm right, I'll make money. It is a much more fair bet. How confident are you?

You pay me 2 bucks for boy. That are the odds you know are correct. I am the one that is wrong.. You have nothing to lose.

Tell me, in what possible way could you lose money on the bet that you want? Then tell me how that is a gamble.All I'm saying it if you really want to bet (and I will) both sides should have a chance of actually winning something. Pretty simple.

 

[biggamer3]

OK here is a simpler one. Why bank on breaking even?Cavalier, you take boy. I'll take girl.If it is a boy, I'll pay you $1.25If it is a girl, you pay me $1.00100 bets total. What do you think?

Why are you running from 2/3. I put the bet out there. Take it or admit you are wrong.

And I could accuse you of running away from your assertion that the odds are 50/50. It's a dumb bet. I set it up where either side has a chance of winning something. For me, if I won the original bet, I would win nothing. If they really are what you say they are, you could make some cash on the bet above. If I'm right, I'll make money. It is a much more fair bet. How confident are you?

You pay me 2 bucks for boy. That are the odds you know are correct. I am the one that is wrong.. You have nothing to lose.

I dont want to get personal but you are being rather stupid here.If you claim its 50/50 than if he offers 1.25 for a boy and you give him 1.00 for a girl, according to your odds you will be ahead after 100.When you propose the 2 for a boy and 1 for a girl according to his logic he will Break EVEN if his probability is correct.Whats so hard to understand about that?

 

[Cavalier]

OK here is a simpler one. Why bank on breaking even?Cavalier, you take boy. I'll take girl.If it is a boy, I'll pay you $1.25If it is a girl, you pay me $1.00100 bets total. What do you think?

Why are you running from 2/3. I put the bet out there. Take it or admit you are wrong.

And I could accuse you of running away from your assertion that the odds are 50/50. It's a dumb bet. I set it up where either side has a chance of winning something. For me, if I won the original bet, I would win nothing. If they really are what you say they are, you could make some cash on the bet above. If I'm right, I'll make money. It is a much more fair bet. How confident are you?

You pay me 2 bucks for boy. That are the odds you know are correct. I am the one that is wrong.. You have nothing to lose.

Tell me, in what possible way could you lose money on the bet that you want? Then tell me how that is a gamble.All I'm saying it if you really want to bet (and I will) both sides should have a chance of actually winning something. Pretty simple.

How could you lose money on the bet I want?

 

[Cavalier]

OK here is a simpler one. Why bank on breaking even?Cavalier, you take boy. I'll take girl.If it is a boy, I'll pay you $1.25If it is a girl, you pay me $1.00100 bets total. What do you think?

Why are you running from 2/3. I put the bet out there. Take it or admit you are wrong.

And I could accuse you of running away from your assertion that the odds are 50/50. It's a dumb bet. I set it up where either side has a chance of winning something. For me, if I won the original bet, I would win nothing. If they really are what you say they are, you could make some cash on the bet above. If I'm right, I'll make money. It is a much more fair bet. How confident are you?

You pay me 2 bucks for boy. That are the odds you know are correct. I am the one that is wrong.. You have nothing to lose.

I dont want to get personal but you are being rather stupid here.If you claim its 50/50 than if he offers 1.25 for a boy and you give him 1.00 for a girl, according to your odds you will be ahead after 100.When you propose the 2 for a boy and 1 for a girl according to his logic he will Break EVEN if his probability is correct.Whats so hard to understand about that?

With 100 cases by his logic he will get 67 dollars. I will get 41.25.I see what you say.I want him to bet his logic. I am the one that is wrong here. I just want to put his answer to the reality test.

 

[FatMax]

OK here is a simpler one. Why bank on breaking even?Cavalier, you take boy. I'll take girl.If it is a boy, I'll pay you $1.25If it is a girl, you pay me $1.00100 bets total. What do you think?

Why are you running from 2/3. I put the bet out there. Take it or admit you are wrong.

And I could accuse you of running away from your assertion that the odds are 50/50. It's a dumb bet. I set it up where either side has a chance of winning something. For me, if I won the original bet, I would win nothing. If they really are what you say they are, you could make some cash on the bet above. If I'm right, I'll make money. It is a much more fair bet. How confident are you?

You pay me 2 bucks for boy. That are the odds you know are correct. I am the one that is wrong.. You have nothing to lose.

Tell me, in what possible way could you lose money on the bet that you want? Then tell me how that is a gamble.All I'm saying it if you really want to bet (and I will) both sides should have a chance of actually winning something. Pretty simple.

How could you lose money on the bet I want?

I could lose money if you're right.

 

[The Noid]

Didn't we exhaust this in the Deal or No Deal thread?

 

[Cavalier]

OK here is a simpler one. Why bank on breaking even?Cavalier, you take boy. I'll take girl.If it is a boy, I'll pay you $1.25If it is a girl, you pay me $1.00100 bets total. What do you think?

Why are you running from 2/3. I put the bet out there. Take it or admit you are wrong.

And I could accuse you of running away from your assertion that the odds are 50/50. It's a dumb bet. I set it up where either side has a chance of winning something. For me, if I won the original bet, I would win nothing. If they really are what you say they are, you could make some cash on the bet above. If I'm right, I'll make money. It is a much more fair bet. How confident are you?

You pay me 2 bucks for boy. That are the odds you know are correct. I am the one that is wrong.. You have nothing to lose.

Tell me, in what possible way could you lose money on the bet that you want? Then tell me how that is a gamble.All I'm saying it if you really want to bet (and I will) both sides should have a chance of actually winning something. Pretty simple.

How could you lose money on the bet I want?

I could lose money if you're right.

Do you think I am right?

 

[kutta]

Ivan has convinced me.

I'm still fighting it.No one has addressed my question of a guy having 100 kids with 99 boys. Once I hear that explanation I might come around.

Given 99 boys, there is 1 possibility of 100 boys and 100 possibilities of 99 boys and a girl (girl born first, second, third, etc.). The probability of the other child being a girl is 99% (100/101).

OK. I'm further from being convinced now.

 

[dgreen]

Ivan has convinced me.

I'm still fighting it.No one has addressed my question of a guy having 100 kids with 99 boys. Once I hear that explanation I might come around.

Given 99 boys, there is 1 possibility of 100 boys and 100 possibilities of 99 boys and a girl (girl born first, second, third, etc.). The probability of the other child being a girl is 99% (100/101).

I'm still not clear why we care about the sequence of births. Why are we treating the boy-girl instance as something different than the girl-boy instance?

 

[The Noid]

And have we used the Let's Make a Deal example, yet?

 

[GoSensGo]

It is dependant on the way the question is worded.

It can be interpreted in a few different ways.

 

[FatMax]

OK here is a simpler one. Why bank on breaking even?Cavalier, you take boy. I'll take girl.If it is a boy, I'll pay you $1.25If it is a girl, you pay me $1.00100 bets total. What do you think?

Why are you running from 2/3. I put the bet out there. Take it or admit you are wrong.

And I could accuse you of running away from your assertion that the odds are 50/50. It's a dumb bet. I set it up where either side has a chance of winning something. For me, if I won the original bet, I would win nothing. If they really are what you say they are, you could make some cash on the bet above. If I'm right, I'll make money. It is a much more fair bet. How confident are you?

You pay me 2 bucks for boy. That are the odds you know are correct. I am the one that is wrong.. You have nothing to lose.

Tell me, in what possible way could you lose money on the bet that you want? Then tell me how that is a gamble.All I'm saying it if you really want to bet (and I will) both sides should have a chance of actually winning something. Pretty simple.

How could you lose money on the bet I want?

I could lose money if you're right.

Do you think I am right?

If I thought you were right, I wouldn't be betting. I guess this boils down to how confident you are in your own conclusions. If you're confident, you'd be crazy not to take the bet and prove me wrong.