Lynch/Jackson draft strategy (1 Viewer)

[Callas Disregard]

Every time I run a mock on DD, I make a mental note that Marshawn Lynch's season totals really only cover 13 weeks, not 16. If you add Fred Jackson's week 1-3 totals to Lynch's week 4-16 totals, you effectively get a strong RB2 with round 2 value. (Of course, this varies depending on scoring system, etc.) Has anyone looked at whether it makes sense to grab Lynch in the 4th/5th and Jackson in, say, the 9th while using a second round pick on a top 3 WR -- with the expectation that the Lynch/Jackson combo will perform like a second round pick?

I see a couple of potential problems:

When Lynch returns he could start slowly and we could see RBBC for awhile.
The Bills O-line is horrible (though one would think this is already built into FBG projections.)
Giving up a 9th round pick to wait until the 4th to pick your RB2 instead of the 2nd might or might not make sense, given that there might be good value at QB and WR in round 9.This strategy intrigues me, but seems to have pitfalls. I'm curious as to whether anyone else has analyzed it.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Every time I run a mock on DD, I make a mental note that Marshawn Lynch's season totals really only cover 13 weeks, not 16. If you add Fred Jackson's week 1-3 totals to Lynch's week 4-16 totals, you effectively get a strong RB2 with round 2 value. (Of course, this varies depending on scoring system, etc.) Has anyone looked at whether it makes sense to grab Lynch in the 4th/5th and Jackson in, say, the 9th while using a second round pick on a top 3 WR -- with the expectation that the Lynch/Jackson combo will perform like a second round pick?

I see a couple of potential problems:

When Lynch returns he could start slowly and we could see RBBC for awhile.
The Bills O-line is horrible (though one would think this is already built into FBG projections.)
Giving up a 9th round pick to wait until the 4th to pick your RB2 instead of the 2nd might or might not make sense, given that there might be good value at QB and WR in round 9.This strategy intrigues me, but seems to have pitfalls. I'm curious as to whether anyone else has analyzed it.

I rather take Lynch around 4th or 5th... then take a strong RB3 like Jones or Rice instead of worrying about Jackson.

 

[Cocky Crow]

I've thought about this too, but I think it too risky to use that to produce, or fill, your RB2 position. I think it better for a Flex spot, or your RB3 slot. Problem with that scenario though is you effectively reduce the number of WRs you would have taken, most likely. However, I too think value can be had using this combo.

 

[SSOG]

I've thought about this too, but I think it too risky to use that to produce, or fill, your RB2 position. I think it better for a Flex spot, or your RB3 slot. Problem with that scenario though is you effectively reduce the number of WRs you would have taken, most likely. However, I too think value can be had using this combo.

I don't know why it'd be too risky to chance a #2 spot on. I think that Lynch is a very safe fantasy RB2 whose only drawback is missing 3 games when they matter the least. I think that Lynch is too cheap for how he's going to produce when he's on the field, especially considering it's not like you just take a 0 during his suspension.

 

[puckalicious]

Every time I run a mock on DD, I make a mental note that Marshawn Lynch's season totals really only cover 13 weeks, not 16. If you add Fred Jackson's week 1-3 totals to Lynch's week 4-16 totals, you effectively get a strong RB2 with round 2 value. (Of course, this varies depending on scoring system, etc.) Has anyone looked at whether it makes sense to grab Lynch in the 4th/5th and Jackson in, say, the 9th while using a second round pick on a top 3 WR -- with the expectation that the Lynch/Jackson combo will perform like a second round pick?

I see a couple of potential problems:

When Lynch returns he could start slowly and we could see RBBC for awhile.
The Bills O-line is horrible (though one would think this is already built into FBG projections.)
Giving up a 9th round pick to wait until the 4th to pick your RB2 instead of the 2nd might or might not make sense, given that there might be good value at QB and WR in round 9.This strategy intrigues me, but seems to have pitfalls. I'm curious as to whether anyone else has analyzed it.

I rather take Lynch around 4th or 5th... then take a strong RB3 like Jones or Rice instead of worrying about Jackson.

Color me shocked if you can get Felix or Ray after the 6 round. Jackson should still be available in the 9th or later.

 

[ATC1]

Bump. Where is Lynch going in redrafts? Seems to be a very good RB2 in the late 4th early 5th.

I'm also in agreement that I would rather a slew of RB3 before taking F. Jackson too high for the handcuff.

 

[lionsroar]

I took Lynch last night in the mid fourth. I could have paired him with Jackson in the ninth but I decided to pair him with Hightower instead. Most people feel that Wells might not be fully ready for a few weeks so I like Hightower early in the season as a filler

 

[NeverEnough]

I just got Lynch in what would be equal to round 6 in my keeper league (keep 4) as my RB3. Good value IMO. Fred Jackson went a few picks ahead of him in this same round!!!!

 

[Kuz]

Bump. Where is Lynch going in redrafts? Seems to be a very good RB2 in the late 4th early 5th. I'm also in agreement that I would rather a slew of RB3 before taking F. Jackson too high for the handcuff.

I took him at 5.02 in our 14 team league last week. I think that's good value but still not sure how excited I am about him. I have been hearing nothing but bad comments in regards to their offensive line. He may work out but not so sure..

 

[TenTimes]

Every time I run a mock on DD, I make a mental note that Marshawn Lynch's season totals really only cover 13 weeks, not 16. If you add Fred Jackson's week 1-3 totals to Lynch's week 4-16 totals, you effectively get a strong RB2 with round 2 value. (Of course, this varies depending on scoring system, etc.) Has anyone looked at whether it makes sense to grab Lynch in the 4th/5th and Jackson in, say, the 9th while using a second round pick on a top 3 WR -- with the expectation that the Lynch/Jackson combo will perform like a second round pick?

I see a couple of potential problems:

When Lynch returns he could start slowly and we could see RBBC for awhile.
The Bills O-line is horrible (though one would think this is already built into FBG projections.)
Giving up a 9th round pick to wait until the 4th to pick your RB2 instead of the 2nd might or might not make sense, given that there might be good value at QB and WR in round 9.This strategy intrigues me, but seems to have pitfalls. I'm curious as to whether anyone else has analyzed it.

I rather take Lynch around 4th or 5th... then take a strong RB3 like Jones or Rice instead of worrying about Jackson.

Thats what i did

 

[timschochet]

I got Lynch in the 5th round of a 10 round redraft. I had focused on QB and WR the first few rounds, with only one RB (Brees, Moss, Slaton, Colston) because I figured the RBs were deep this year. So in rounds 5-9 I picked up Lynch, Moreno, Rice, Greg Olsen and Felix, figuring that one of these RBs will emerge. I kept waiting on Fred Jackson until round 12. So first week I will start Slaton, Rice, and Jackson as my Flex, while Moreno, and Felix sit on the pine. On paper at least, I'm pretty satisfied.

 

[Lehigh98]

In a $200 12 team auction league I bought Lynch for $18 and Jackson for $8.

There were 17 RB's that went for more than the combined $26 I spent for them.

Now just hope the line comes together and there's a clear starter most weeks.

 

[shredhead]

I took Lynch last night in the mid fourth. I could have paired him with Jackson in the ninth but I decided to pair him with Hightower instead. Most people feel that Wells might not be fully ready for a few weeks so I like Hightower early in the season as a filler

This is the way people who draft Lynch need to think. You don't have to get Jackson just because you drafted Lynch. This is true with most handcuffs actually, but I'll keep it to Lynch/Jackson for this thread's purposes. I grabbed Lynch in the 5th or 6th (can't remember) in one of my leagues that has a early draft (2nd preseason week) I got him as a RB3, so I didn't worry about Jackson. I was grabbing depth and flyers at the time Jackson was draftd.

 

[Callas Disregard]

I took Lynch last night in the mid fourth. I could have paired him with Jackson in the ninth but I decided to pair him with Hightower instead. Most people feel that Wells might not be fully ready for a few weeks so I like Hightower early in the season as a filler

This is the way people who draft Lynch need to think. You don't have to get Jackson just because you drafted Lynch. This is true with most handcuffs actually, but I'll keep it to Lynch/Jackson for this thread's purposes. I grabbed Lynch in the 5th or 6th (can't remember) in one of my leagues that has a early draft (2nd preseason week) I got him as a RB3, so I didn't worry about Jackson. I was grabbing depth and flyers at the time Jackson was draftd.

I agree that handcuffs don't usually make sense, but in this case I was thinking in terms of the suspension and that Jackson might be one of the very few RBs available in round 9 who could put up starter-quality numbers in weeks 1-3. If you add Jackson's projections for weeks 1-3 with Lynch's projections for weeks 4 and later, then you get a quality RB2 without having to use a 2nd or 3rd round pick. If you didn't draft Lynch to be a starter, then the strategy makes less sense because you probably won't need him or Jackson in weeks 1-3 anyway.

 

[Northbound Train]

I was all over the Lynch-Jackson strategy in my drafts this weekend and last night. The way I look at it is that you are getting a potential Top 10 pick (if notv suspended) in the 4th or 5th rounds. I coupled Jackson with him so that I have a 2nd (or 3rd in some cases) RB for the early weeks.

I don't pay too much attention to O-lines when drafting stud RBs...guys still put up solid numbers even running behind crap (see Barry)

Got him at 5.10 and Jackson at 10.03 after grabbing Gore & Kevin Smith in the 2nd & 3rd rounds...also grabbed Benson at 9.10, loaded at RB w/o sacrificing other positions (Moss, Braylon, Moore as starting WRs, Palmer, Garrard at QB, KW at TE) Very hapy with this draft

Grabbed him at 5.1 and Jackson at 9.1 in another league with AP at 1 overall (have Benson & Beanie here also)

Last night grabbed Lynch at 5.02 and Jackson at 10.11

Landed that combo in 3 of 4 redrafts

 

[Barksdale Ballers]

Every time I run a mock on DD, I make a mental note that Marshawn Lynch's season totals really only cover 13 weeks, not 16. If you add Fred Jackson's week 1-3 totals to Lynch's week 4-16 totals, you effectively get a strong RB2 with round 2 value. (Of course, this varies depending on scoring system, etc.) Has anyone looked at whether it makes sense to grab Lynch in the 4th/5th and Jackson in, say, the 9th while using a second round pick on a top 3 WR -- with the expectation that the Lynch/Jackson combo will perform like a second round pick?

I see a couple of potential problems:

When Lynch returns he could start slowly and we could see RBBC for awhile.
The Bills O-line is horrible (though one would think this is already built into FBG projections.)
Giving up a 9th round pick to wait until the 4th to pick your RB2 instead of the 2nd might or might not make sense, given that there might be good value at QB and WR in round 9.This strategy intrigues me, but seems to have pitfalls. I'm curious as to whether anyone else has analyzed it.

I rather take Lynch around 4th or 5th... then take a strong RB3 like Jones or Rice instead of worrying about Jackson.

Thats what i did

Got Lynch in the 7th (4th pick) last night and Jackson in the 9th. I'll take that any day of the week I can get it.

 

[Resident A]

In my main league, I landed Lynch as my RB3 in the 5th. I figured F Jackson would go earlier than I was willing to take him, and I was right. F Jackson went in the 8th, I took Felix Jones 2 picks later who I'd much rather have anyway. I wasn't gonna take Fred until at least the 10th.

 

[SSOG]

I took Lynch last night in the mid fourth. I could have paired him with Jackson in the ninth but I decided to pair him with Hightower instead. Most people feel that Wells might not be fully ready for a few weeks so I like Hightower early in the season as a filler

This is the way people who draft Lynch need to think. You don't have to get Jackson just because you drafted Lynch. This is true with most handcuffs actually, but I'll keep it to Lynch/Jackson for this thread's purposes. I grabbed Lynch in the 5th or 6th (can't remember) in one of my leagues that has a early draft (2nd preseason week) I got him as a RB3, so I didn't worry about Jackson. I was grabbing depth and flyers at the time Jackson was draftd.

I agree that handcuffs don't usually make sense, but in this case I was thinking in terms of the suspension and that Jackson might be one of the very few RBs available in round 9 who could put up starter-quality numbers in weeks 1-3. If you add Jackson's projections for weeks 1-3 with Lynch's projections for weeks 4 and later, then you get a quality RB2 without having to use a 2nd or 3rd round pick. If you didn't draft Lynch to be a starter, then the strategy makes less sense because you probably won't need him or Jackson in weeks 1-3 anyway.

If you draft Lynch as your RB2 it's a possibility, but most people seem to be getting Lynch as an RB3. In that case, you can rely on your RB1 and RB2 for the first couple of weeks, and by the time byes start rolling around and you need your RB3 in your starting lineup, Lynch will be back and ready to go.

 

[AllVolUT]

In a $200 12 team auction league I bought Lynch for $18 and Jackson for $8.

There were 17 RB's that went for more than the combined $26 I spent for them.

Now just hope the line comes together and there's a clear starter most weeks.

I think this is the key here for this strategy to pay off.