Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I am a huge QB pimp and Peyton Manning is playing at a far higher caliber than any rookie including Andrew Luck right now. If Luck is 'lucky' enough to play fifteen years then it is very simple to subtract the years he would not be playing at the current high caliber that Peyton is playing right now so if Manning's play surpasses Luck for Andrews first couple of years then the remaining years would be held up against what Trent Richardson and Brandon Weeden and Mitchell Schwartz and whatever player is taken in next year's draft would produce.Right now its not even close. Peyton Manning alone is producing better than Luck even before adding in Richardson and Weeden and Schwartz plus a first round pick in next year's draft. No one knows how things will turn out but having four high picks plus a high performing Peyton Manning right now isn't a no-brain slam dunk win for Andrew Luck. I think its quite the opposite right now. How it eventually turns out is far from a slam dunk IMHO as well.I'm a huge QB pimp but a QB can't win it all. A Super Bowl team is typically a great QB and great coaching and many players in their prime coming together at once. Luck may never have a RB of the caliber of T-Rich in his entire career so having a stud RB and a solid ORT and a Brandon Weeden or whoever the Colts would have taken if Peyton were still in the fold PLUS a first round pick next year would give any team a great chance to win immediately and I would not discount the possibliity the Colts would have target a QB either in this past year's draft or in next year's draft as they competed and used Peyton, still playing at a high level, as a bridge till the young QB was up to speed.You are ignoring the money part of it. Denver is paying Manning ~$20M per year. Indy is paying Luck ~$5.5M per year.But even setting that aside, I'd take Luck over Manning, Richardson, Weeden, Schwartz, and another 1st rounder without hesitation. It's hard to put a price on getting an All Pro caliber QB for 15 years.Imagine if a similar scenario faced the Colts when Manning came out, and they traded him to another team and ended up missing out on the career he had in Indy for a few years of a top veteran HOF QB, a great RB, and a couple other really good players. It would not have been worth it, unless one or more of the players other than the HOF QB were also future HOFers.No one is putting a gun to my head or your head or the Colts GM head either so instead of taking it to that extreme lets put it into a more realistic light.This isn't an Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning proposition where Andrew Luck is built up as the can't miss sure-fire young stud ubermensch and Peyton Manning is diminished as an old broken down nerve degenerated feeble geriatric in a wheel chair wheesing just to make it accross the room.The decision of the Colts was based on two things. One was a lack of faith in Peyton Manning's health, both short term and long term. Two, their belief in Andrew Luck.I have stated the decision isn't either/or Luck/Manning because its not. I saw the decision as the short-term return on Manning PLUS the long-term return on trading away the rights to Luck VS NOTHING for Peyton and Andrew Luck.One side = ZERO from Peyton Manning + Andrew LuckOther side = Peyton Manning (any play nearing equal to his historic high level of play) + the draft picks from dealing the rights to Andrew Luck and we know for cetain what was on the table:- 4th pick used to select RB Trent Richardson- 22nd pick used to select QB Brandon Weeden- 37th pick used to select ORT Mitchell SchwartzAll of the above, including Luck, have played well.So on one side is: QB Andrew LuckOn the other side: Peyton Manning, Trent Richardson, Brandon Weeden, Mitchell Schwartz PLUS Cleveland's first round pick in 2013I have stated I would have made the deal back in February to trade the rights to Luck long before Peyton Manning made his successful comeback and I'd definitely still make the deal today.Once again I am a big Manning fan. Heck being a Giants fan and loving Eli it makes it easy to love the whole Manning clan. I think that Manning is the best QB of this era. The Colts could very well be 4 and 3 with Manning leading the way this year, but there was way too much to gamble on with Manning as opposed to what the Colts did with drafting Luck. Even the Manning of old one of the greatest QB's to ever play the game was 1 for 14 in winning SB's as a member of the Colts. Having a gun to your head..... Would you take your chances that Luck arguably the greatest QB prospect to come out since Elway would be best for your franchise and give you the best possible chance of succeeding and getting you back to winning a SB in the near future OR gamble with a guy who was coming off 4 neck surgeries and had sat out for a year and was also 1 for 14 with his prime obviously past him?The closest situation that this relates to is what Thompson was faced with in Green Bay. Bracie, do you think that letting Favre go and going with Rodgers was a mistake? Favre still had some left in the tank as he himself also made it back to the SB with Minny a couple of years later but it was Rodgers who got there and won it and allows the Packers the best opportunity to continue to get there going forward now.




Anyway, you're completely ignoring the fact that the Colts could have used the #1 pick to surround Manning with multiple impact players. If you subtract Luck and add Manning plus a couple extra blue-chip players, then the Colts are easily a 12 win team this year -- and absolutely a title contender this year and beyond.
Shoulda just said you were wrong...then it wouldn't be a "big deal" IMO.