Maroney vs. Dolphins yesterday....question (1 Viewer)

[Black Label Society]

Did he just look bad, or was Miami totally geared up to stop him?

Stats suggest Dillon ran much better...I was hoping for 75 and a TD out of Maroney, and got basically skunked.

So, anyone who watched it, can you give me any insight?

 

[Big10Fan]

miami run d is good, thats all

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Say what you want about the Dolphins but they remain good against the run. Maroney went off against Cinci, one of the league's worst against the run. IMHO, you should expect Dillon to see most of the work against better run D's, limiting Maroney's performance most of the time.

 

[Marc Levin]

^------------------

Exactly my point in the Maroney thread when folks in redrafts were being offered Harrison for him.

You TAKE Harrison and SELL Maroney at high value. Dillon is still an important factor and the Pats offensive players play ROLES not FEATURES.

 

[PahtyTom]

I was at the game and Miami run D was very good, but Dillon was finishing his runs better yesterday than Maroney. I found it very important to note how much more Maroney was on the field than Dillon, even being on the field on some key 3rd down passing downs and 3rd and shorts.

 

[4 - Digit Shark]

Say what you want about the Dolphins but they remain good against the run. Maroney went off against Cinci, one of the league's worst against the run. IMHO, you should expect Dillon to see most of the work against better run D's, limiting Maroney's performance most of the time.

I don't think Dillon saw most of the work, he was just more productive with his touches. Maroney had 18 carries to Dillon's 10. Plus Maroney had far more carries in the second half. Dillon only had 4 if my math is correct. The good thing is Maroney is averaging 15+ carries per week and is getting slightly more carries then Dillon. He just needs to make the most of his chances.

 

[Bri]

Dillon didn't smell the field from somewhere late in the third til the end of the game. Maroney was the waste time RB. Makes sense get him experience, keep Dillon healthy etc.

Maroney was being stood up alot and the Fins were stout even when he put his head down. They pounded and pounded him and the D wasn't breaking. Very impressive Fins run D yesterday.

 

[One]

^------------------

Exactly my point in the Maroney thread when folks in redrafts were being offered Harrison for him.

You TAKE Harrison and SELL Maroney at high value. Dillon is still an important factor and the Pats offensive players play ROLES not FEATURES.

I'd take this deal in a heartbeat, but Maroney isn't exactly a "sell high."

 

[Marc Levin]

^------------------

Exactly my point in the Maroney thread when folks in redrafts were being offered Harrison for him.

You TAKE Harrison and SELL Maroney at high value. Dillon is still an important factor and the Pats offensive players play ROLES not FEATURES.

I'd take this deal in a heartbeat, but Maroney isn't exactly a "sell high."

He was last week.Considering the offers that were there for him after last week in REDRAFT leagues, he was a sell high. harrison = top-5 fantasy WR. If you can sell Maroney for Harrison in a redraft, you do it and don't look back.

Maroney was the waste time RB. Makes sense get him experience, keep Dillon healthy etc.

There was no "waste" time. They were only up by 10.

 

[mbuehner]

And I still have to disagree. Maroney got 18 carries yesterday- FWP got 14 and Westbrook got 11. I dont hear many people looking to sell on those guys (at least not for lack of touches). Maroney got stacked by a very good Miami defense on a mission to stop the run- and he looked tough running even if his statistics dont show it. He turned a whole lot of no-gain/losses into a couple of yards and that is very important to a team (ie, it keeps him on the field down the road). He just couldnt manage to break one yesterday- it happens to the best of em.

The point is Harrison is a role player at this point in his career as well. He caught for 29 and a touch yesterday on 3 catches- that's hardly the kind of elite numbers Marc is expecting to get his season average back in line with his career numbers. The point is Harrison is also somewhat hit or miss player at his point in his career.

Maroney is a home run hitter splitting time. When a guy in full blown RBBC is worth a #2 RB start -his upside is limitless. If Dillon goes down or Maroney just plays him off the field Maroney becomes a top 3 RB comparable with LJ or LT _this_ season. Now while it is plausible that Harrison could return to his off the charts self of several years ago, I would say that is very very unlikely (not that he wont be very good). Maroney wins the upside battle- he already has won the "what have you done for me lately" battle- I think it would be a bad mistake to trade him at this point for less than a Steve Smith, even in a redraft league.

A better idea would be to trade the guy you drafted to be your #2 RB and trade him for Harrison, then just play Maroney. I think you could make that trade in most leagues. Harrison has been pedestrian so far, his owner probably isnt valuing him this highly.

 

[Black Label Society]

well, sounds like Miami was geared up to stop the run...which is fine with me...that's what I had hoped to hear.

 

[Wally Cleaver]

Every team for now on will be geared up to stop the run... The patriots do not have any decent receivers...

Maroney was a great sell high last week as he is still in a rbbc and will continue to be barring injury to Dillon, he simply is not going to get enough carries to be worth what you could have gotten for him last week...

As for the popular opinion that he is going to get more and more carries as the year goes on, I personally don't see it happening... Why would the patriots change what they have going?? They play in a very weak division and should be able to coast into the playoffs.. I believe they will try to keep both backs fresh until then... You may see more of Maroney in the NFL playoffs but until then I think he will be too inconsistent to be considered a must start fantasy running back...

 

[Marc Levin]

that's hardly the kind of elite numbers Marc is expecting to get his season average back in line with his career numbers. The point is Harrison is also somewhat hit or miss player at his point in his career.

He is one of the top-5 yardage getters in the league - was on pace for over 1500 receiving yards with no TDs before this past game. He got a TD yesterday and 29 yards - which sets him back to being on pace for 1400 receiving yards on the season.Like I said, if Harrison gets 10 TDs this year - which would match his LOWEST output of TDs in nearly a decade - he will be worth a LOT more than Maroney going forward. That "if" is a safer bet than the bet ofn"if" Maroney will continue producing on few carries.1) how many times is Peyton Manning gonna throw for less than 200 yards?2) how many times will Dillon have over 15 carries?I'd say #2 will out strip number one by a healthy margin.

 

[mbuehner]

Like I said, if Harrison gets 10 TDs this year - which would match his LOWEST output of TDs in nearly a decade - he will be worth a LOT more than Maroney going forward.

How so? If Maroney only keeps up his numbers he puts up 1300 all purpose yards and 13 tds.

That "if" is a safer bet than the bet ofn"if" Maroney will continue producing on few carries.1) how many times is Peyton Manning gonna throw for less than 200 yards?2) how many times will Dillon have over 15 carries?I'd say #2 will out strip number one by a healthy margin.

Past performance is no guaruntee of future returns, obviously, but the point is Harrison is going to have to hustle to put up 9 TDs in 11 games. Plus 4 out of 5 of Indys games so far have been against suspect defenses. There are some tougher matchups down the road. I dont see how Harrison's TD production is going to quadruple while maitining his yardage- its possible certainly, but that to me seems like the longer shot. And isnt Reggie Wayne going to have something to say about all this? All of the same factors keeping Harrison from being ranked in the elite WRs bracket pre-season still apply imo. The numbers you are supposing would have made him the #2 WR last year.On the other side of the coin- it just seems wild to me to suppose Dillon is going to take carries back away from Maroney. Maroney has 78 carries and 9 targets to Dillons 68 and 2. That seems like the base line to me if anything. I dont see how you can argue that the Patriots have no reason to change whats working (true) by cutting out Dillon completely- but also argue that Dillon is going to cut into Maroneys carries going foward. Why should that be? Dillon isnt getting any fresher as the season wears on.And my argument basically hinges on the upside factor. I think what you are assuming is at least in my world Harrison reaching just about his peak upside potential. If i'm allowed to make the same assumption, well Maroneys upside is remarkable. My gamble is that Dillon turns an ankle sometime this season and I end up with an uberstud RB- and worst case i still have a serviceable RB. You gamble is that Harrison puts up numbers comparable with the best parts of his career going forward. The odds may favor you a bit but the payout favors me huge.

 

[Joe T]

I for one like Maroney over Harrison.

Maroney = $$$$

 

[Gerg73]

QUOTE

Like I said, if Harrison gets 10 TDs this year - which would match his LOWEST output of TDs in nearly a decade - he will be worth a LOT more than Maroney going forward.

How so? If Maroney only keeps up his numbers he puts up 1300 all purpose yards and 13 tds.

QUOTE

That "if" is a safer bet than the bet ofn"if" Maroney will continue producing on few carries.

1) how many times is Peyton Manning gonna throw for less than 200 yards?

2) how many times will Dillon have over 15 carries?

I'd say #2 will out strip number one by a healthy margin.

Past performance is no guaruntee of future returns, obviously, but the point is Harrison is going to have to hustle to put up 9 TDs in 11 games. Plus 4 out of 5 of Indys games so far have been against suspect defenses. There are some tougher matchups down the road. I dont see how Harrison's TD production is going to quadruple while maitining his yardage- its possible certainly, but that to me seems like the longer shot. And isnt Reggie Wayne going to have something to say about all this? All of the same factors keeping Harrison from being ranked in the elite WRs bracket pre-season still apply imo. The numbers you are supposing would have made him the #2 WR last year.

On the other side of the coin- it just seems wild to me to suppose Dillon is going to take carries back away from Maroney. Maroney has 78 carries and 9 targets to Dillons 68 and 2. That seems like the base line to me if anything. I dont see how you can argue that the Patriots have no reason to change whats working (true) by cutting out Dillon completely- but also argue that Dillon is going to cut into Maroneys carries going foward. Why should that be? Dillon isnt getting any fresher as the season wears on.

And my argument basically hinges on the upside factor. I think what you are assuming is at least in my world Harrison reaching just about his peak upside potential. If i'm allowed to make the same assumption, well Maroneys upside is remarkable. My gamble is that Dillon turns an ankle sometime this season and I end up with an uberstud RB- and worst case i still have a serviceable RB. You gamble is that Harrison puts up numbers comparable with the best parts of his career going forward. The odds may favor you a bit but the payout favors me huge.

I own both, so I'm not biased. Maroney would require MUCH MORE in an offer to pry him away from me.

Lets see...a WR on pace for 1,400 yards and 3 TD's

or

a RB on pace for

1,300 yards and 13Td's...................................HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM......That's a Tough one!

Unless Maroney gets injured, there's NO WAY Harrison is more Valuable than him the rest of the way.

 

[Boston]

I was at the game and this is what I saw:

*Miami's D is still good. They're starting to fade as guys like Taylor, Carter, Traylor (he's just huge) and Thomas get older but they're still a very solid unit.

*Horrible, horrible playcalling on many of Maroney's runs. They didn't put him in a position to get open space. A lot of his runs were the same thing thing. Right into the teeth of the Miami D.

*I was watching Dillon closely and my guess is he's still banged up which is why Maroney got more carries even though he wasn't too effective. Dillon was moving his shoulder/arm in a manner that looks like it's hurting him. Not enough to keep him from playing but enough to give him a decreased workload the week before the bye.

 

[One]

^------------------

Exactly my point in the Maroney thread when folks in redrafts were being offered Harrison for him.

You TAKE Harrison and SELL Maroney at high value. Dillon is still an important factor and the Pats offensive players play ROLES not FEATURES.

I'd take this deal in a heartbeat, but Maroney isn't exactly a "sell high."

He was last week.Considering the offers that were there for him after last week in REDRAFT leagues, he was a sell high. harrison = top-5 fantasy WR. If you can sell Maroney for Harrison in a redraft, you do it and don't look back.

Maroney was the waste time RB. Makes sense get him experience, keep Dillon healthy etc.

There was no "waste" time. They were only up by 10.

Well Marc, if you can find me an owner to trade a top 5 reciever for Maroney lemme know ASAP. I'd love to speak with him. That shouldn't be happening in a redraft. With the junk I've been offered for Maroney in 2 different leagues I don't think informed owners will consider him on much of "high" until he ownes all of the carries in New England

 

[Marc Levin]

I think what you are assuming is at least in my world Harrison reaching just about his peak upside potential.

I am assuming he reacjhes ther BOTTOM of his HISTORICAL averages. Which is a reasonable assumption.9 TDs in 11 games for a player who has averaged 11 TDs per tear in an 11 year career - and 12.7 over the last 7 years - is a BOTTOM for him, not peak upside.I EXPECT 9 in the next 11 games - I would HOPE FOR 12 or more.

 

[Marc Levin]

^------------------

Exactly my point in the Maroney thread when folks in redrafts were being offered Harrison for him.

You TAKE Harrison and SELL Maroney at high value. Dillon is still an important factor and the Pats offensive players play ROLES not FEATURES.

I'd take this deal in a heartbeat, but Maroney isn't exactly a "sell high."

He was last week.Considering the offers that were there for him after last week in REDRAFT leagues, he was a sell high. harrison = top-5 fantasy WR. If you can sell Maroney for Harrison in a redraft, you do it and don't look back.

Maroney was the waste time RB. Makes sense get him experience, keep Dillon healthy etc.

There was no "waste" time. They were only up by 10.

Well Marc, if you can find me an owner to trade a top 5 reciever for Maroney lemme know ASAP. I'd love to speak with him. That shouldn't be happening in a redraft. With the junk I've been offered for Maroney in 2 different leagues I don't think informed owners will consider him on much of "high" until he ownes all of the carries in New England

If I could, I would. Don't shoot the messenger. Alll I am saying is look here for the offers people were receiving:Maroney trade value - CJohn 4 Maroney, and Harrison for Maroney offers contained within

 

[mbuehner]

9 TDs in 11 games for a player who has averaged 11 TDs per tear in an 11 year career - and 12.7 over the last 7 years - is a BOTTOM for him, not peak upside.

I EXPECT 9 in the next 11 games - I would HOPE FOR 12 or more.

Harrisons career average is .698 TDs per game. Unless my math is foggy going forward he 'should' score 7.678 more TDs, thats 9 on the season, and thats assuming he's playing as well as his career average.I think your argument is succombing to the gamblers fallacy that Harrison is 'due' for makeup touchdowns. I would say the more realistic argument is to wonder why Harrison is so far off his touchdown production and consider that just to return to his career average will be a huge increase in current production, much less outplaying his career average to get to 10 or more. I think its worth asking when the last time Harrison went for 1 TD in 5 games and if that is a sign that he isnt going to get back to his career average. The mans 34 years old, it wouldnt take much to knock a couple TDs off his resume.

 

[Gerg73]

Also, isn't it illogical to expect Harrison to put up the same numbers when he no longer has a Top 5 Rb helping keep the defense Honest?

In the games I've watched, it seems to me ALL Teams are playing 7 and SOMETIMES 6 men in the box and dropping the rest into coverage.

I've seen a lot of Nickel and Dime Defenses in there on 1st and 2nd down also. Teams don't fear Rhodes or Addai (Yet), so they're willing to make those guys beast them instead of Harrison and Wayne.

So I guess we should expect like 27 Td's from Manning in his next 11 games to equal his carreer averages??

Does losing James not have ANY effect on your expectations for Harrison??????????/

 

[ceisenhower66]

I don't have much to add in terms of Maroney...in fact, I am kinda stumped as to what to do with him. He scored major points on my bench two weeks ago and didn't do jack for me the two weeks I started him. He did not look good against Miami, and you have to take his performance against Cincy with a grain of salt. I'd say he is somewhere in the middle with 60-80 yards a game and a decent chance of scoring. The thing about Maroney is that he is one Dillon injury away from being a stud.

For what is worth, I just got offered Hines Ward or Bernard Berrian and Byron Leftwich for Maroney in a 12 man keeper league. Normally I'd say no way to this deal, but we are hurting at QB thanks to drafting Culpepper (we also have Vick and Young) and also at WR (Driver, Moss, Matt Jones, Rod Smith). We are loaded at RB (Alexander, Parker, Bush, T. Bell, Barber III, and Maroney).

 

[Tau837]

9 TDs in 11 games for a player who has averaged 11 TDs per tear in an 11 year career - and 12.7 over the last 7 years - is a BOTTOM for him, not peak upside.

I EXPECT 9 in the next 11 games - I would HOPE FOR 12 or more.

Harrisons career average is .698 TDs per game. Unless my math is foggy going forward he 'should' score 7.678 more TDs, thats 9 on the season, and thats assuming he's playing as well as his career average.I think your argument is succombing to the gamblers fallacy that Harrison is 'due' for makeup touchdowns. I would say the more realistic argument is to wonder why Harrison is so far off his touchdown production and consider that just to return to his career average will be a huge increase in current production, much less outplaying his career average to get to 10 or more. I think its worth asking when the last time Harrison went for 1 TD in 5 games and if that is a sign that he isnt going to get back to his career average. The mans 34 years old, it wouldnt take much to knock a couple TDs off his resume.

mbuehner is owning this argument.

 

[Patriotsfatboy1]

I have not watched the film yet, but I was at the game. Bear in mind that Dillon is a good runner between the tackles and Maroney is a good outside runner. Miami was taking away one of those depending upon who was in the game. The Pats have addressed this by going hurry up before, but that did not happen in this game.

Don't read too much into it as far as the play of Dillon and Maroney, but read into it with respect to McDaniels not changing up his play calling enough to keep Miami off balance.

 

[Chaz McNulty]

I think what you are assuming is at least in my world Harrison reaching just about his peak upside potential.

I am assuming he reacjhes ther BOTTOM of his HISTORICAL averages. Which is a reasonable assumption.9 TDs in 11 games for a player who has averaged 11 TDs per tear in an 11 year career - and 12.7 over the last 7 years - is a BOTTOM for him, not peak upside.I EXPECT 9 in the next 11 games - I would HOPE FOR 12 or more.

This logic makes no sense to me. If I flip a coin 16 times, I would average 8 heads. If after 7 flips I have 6 tails and one head, I would not expect 7 of the following 9 flips to be heads. It may happen, but it is unlikely.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

I think its worth asking when the last time Harrison went for 1 TD in 5 games and if that is a sign that he isnt going to get back to his career average. The mans 34 years old, it wouldnt take much to knock a couple TDs off his resume.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/game...rrMa00.htm#20031999: 7 game stretch with 1 TD (115-1663-12 for the season)

2002: 5 game strech with 1 TD (143-1722-11 for the season)

2003: 5 game stretch with 1 TD (94-1272-10 for the season)