Garts
Footballguy
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...70&hl=lynchSimilar thread going into this year..you have your opinion as do others.
But another made a good point...not many would do more given the situation then Lynch has.
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Marshawn Lynch just isn't very good (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Max Power
- Start date
But another made a good point...not many would do more given the situation then Lynch has.
PranksterJD
Footballguy
You're always gonna be behind the curve then. You'll constantly be drafting and trading for guys like Larry Johnson and LaDanian Tomlinson because their stats are good, but you'll miss Turner, Thomas, and Ryan Grant because they hadn't performed like top 10 runners.Marshawn's a prime example of a guy who's talented enough to be elite, but doesn't have the best situation. His floor is RB15, and his ceiling is Top 5 or better. These are the guys you strive for in dynasty and take chances on in redraft, because situation changes quickly, and without much warning.
Max Power
Footballguy
Fair enough. I came into this thread trying to get my mind changed. Seems to just get the same thing that while he has talent, he will produce more like a RB2 in Buffalo. Still wonder why people like him in the top 10 in 09...Ok, now that I've read through the entire thread, it doesn't look like we are going to change your mind. That's fine, you're entitled to your opinions, leave him for someone to take in next year's drafts.I can say this about 2/3 the starting backs in the NFLVery few holes to run through, always breaking tackles and making guys miss, just to get to the line of scrimmage. Put him behind some of the other lines in the NFL and he would be mentioned as a top 5 RB, not top 10.Can't watch em all, but thanks for sharingWatch the games.Please feel free to sell me on why this kid has such a bright future....
Garts
Footballguy
RBM
Footballguy
Cant base your entire draft on last years stats.
treat88
Footballguy
Jax and DWill are interesting inclusions on that list if you are arguing against Lynch. (I could actually say the same about MJD and Turner, but they are a little more unique.)Since FF production is all you care about (quote), look at these guys first two seasons.They are not identical, but are generally similar to Lynch's first two seasons in terms of production.After their first two seasons, you could have made the exact same arguments against them that you make against Lynch now.Yet now you put them in your top 5 due to the benefit of hindsight.Since FF is all about foresight, how do we project which players have the potential to step up into these ranks?Watch the games. Learn to recognize talent. Draft talent not situation. You'll win more than you will lose.We can disagree about Lynch's talent level, but the stats angle is a very poor angle to take. Speed, vision, power, explosiveness, opportunity etc are far more meaningful, and interesting, variables to argue and far more determining in what a player may do or not do next season.
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footballguy#1
Footballguy
Maybe he's trying to trade for Lynch, and doing his best to devalue him?
Super King
Footballguy
Guys a beast. You think he's going to get tackled for a 2 yard loss, then all of a sudden he squirts forward for a 4 yard gain.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
No kidding. Lynch is a stud.Watch the games.Please feel free to sell me on why this kid has such a bright future....
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
He's an exclusive rights free agent, which means he's not going anywhere soon.I like Lynch a lot, but there's no question that Jackson is a drain on his fantasy football value.
Garts
Footballguy
Or you could say he help Lynch by keeping him fresher...but I see wha you mean....Jackson does get a pretty decent share.But that's the way the league is going....
Gandalf
Footballguy
Marshawn Lynch is a very talented player on a poor offensive team. The Bills call too many questionable offensive plays (this is either the fault of Jauron or the OC), an injury prone QB who may not like/be able to play in cold weather, no backup QB for when Edwards gets injured (more 8 man fronts), and a below average run-blocking o-line. Also, the Pats, Jets and Dolphins each have decent run defenses, which means that 8 reasonably tough match-ups for Lynch. Lynch gets hit 1-2 yards after the line of scrimmage on most plays. He usually breaks a tackle or two (sometimes he drags 4 guys with him!) before going down.
Basically, it's not Lynch that is the problem. It is the o-line (good at pass blocking, bad at run blocking), play calling (the Losman rollout is just one of many poor coaching decisions that were made last season), and possibly Edwards (though I think if he can stay healthy he can be an average NFL starter). Unfortunately, these are not easy fixes.
I think Lynch is topping out at his potential over the next 1-2 seasons. Longer term as Buffalo slowly improves (let's hope this happens as I am a fan), Lynch's stats could too, but I think it's more reasonable to think his stats aren't going to vault him into the top tier of RBs any time soon. For now, I think he's a low end #1 at best and a solid #2 RB.
Basically, it's not Lynch that is the problem. It is the o-line (good at pass blocking, bad at run blocking), play calling (the Losman rollout is just one of many poor coaching decisions that were made last season), and possibly Edwards (though I think if he can stay healthy he can be an average NFL starter). Unfortunately, these are not easy fixes.
I think Lynch is topping out at his potential over the next 1-2 seasons. Longer term as Buffalo slowly improves (let's hope this happens as I am a fan), Lynch's stats could too, but I think it's more reasonable to think his stats aren't going to vault him into the top tier of RBs any time soon. For now, I think he's a low end #1 at best and a solid #2 RB.
Max Power
Footballguy
Lynch's first 2 seasons530 rush 2151 yds 4.05 ypc / 65 rec 484 yds 7.4 ypc 16 total tdsSJax first 2 seasons388 rush 1719 yds 4.43 ypc / 62 rec 504 yds 8.1 ypc 14 total tdsDwill first 2 seasons265 rush 1218 yds 4.6 ypc / 56 rec 488 yds 8.7 ypc 7 total tdsBoth did more on a per touch ratio than Lynch has. The biggest thing holding Jackson and Williams back was the lack of playing time. 06 Faulk retires and Jackson has his best season in 06 (touches jump by 100). 08 Foster moves on, Dwill has his best season (touches jump by 100)What is going to be different for Lynch in 09? He already has the starting job. Oppertunities are there, athough might even get cut into a little more as Fred Jackson has earned the PT.He just isn't in the same class as these guys. Or MJD or TurnerYou say draft for Talent and not situation? I assume your talking dynasty here because so far situation is the only thing getting Lynch drafted so high.treat88 said:
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treat88
Footballguy
Fair enough.Like I say the stats angle doesn't tell the whole story and, as mentioned, will leave you squarely behind the curve in picking value.My eyes tell me something very different about Lynch than your stats are telling you.I'll simply agree to disagree.
Thorpe
Footballguy
Lynch is a much better NFL RB than Fantasy RB. He is a leader, plays hurt, gives 100% on every play, and cares a lot about winning than stats. To compare him to Peterson, Peterson has the top end speed which turns 15 a yard Lynch run into a long TD run, but a lot of runs Peterson is tackled in the backfield Lynch will find a way to gain 4 yards. Lynch had several 8 yard runs which were some of the best runs I've ever seen. Jackson doesn't affect Lynch's value that much because due to Lynch's running style he'll never put up a lot of carries. Even at Cal, Lynch was happy to split carries with Forsett.
As for the future of the Bills, Edwards is fine. The WRs are not great, and the O Line stinks, especially when it comes to run blocking. I think Lynch is a good pick if you want a consistent 1200 rushing, plus decent receving, 8 TDs, in 14 games.
As for the future of the Bills, Edwards is fine. The WRs are not great, and the O Line stinks, especially when it comes to run blocking. I think Lynch is a good pick if you want a consistent 1200 rushing, plus decent receving, 8 TDs, in 14 games.
Gandalf
Footballguy
I agree with everything you said, with the exception that "Edwards is fine." I think he might be fine, but we just don't know yet. He hasn't been the same player since he was concussed and during the game against the Pats in which the wind was frigid (I know because I was there), he was always running to the sideline and bundling up in what looked like a ridiculous jacket. He never looked comfortable on the sideline and I am starting to doubt whether he will get used to the cold weather. Some people don't and as the QB in Buffalo he needs to. Then there is the question of being injury prone. We'll see. I'm just hoping that he's not the second coming of Rob Johnson or JP Losman for that matter. Remember when people started to think Losman was the answer??? Jeesh...We'll see next season whether Edwards can stay healthy and adjust to the climate of Buffalo. Fingers crossed that he does. When it comes to Lynch I think your view of his running style and projections are spot on. He's an ideal number 2 RB, but he'll never drop that far.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Trent Edwards is only entering his thrid year in the NFL. I know Matt Ryan had a fine rookie year, but people tend to forget that playing QB in the NFL is hard and that QBs take a little time to develop and are capable of becoming better.
Thorpe
Footballguy
Agree with Edwards being soft in the cold, but the whole Bills team is that way. I'm pretty sure all of the skill guys are from Texas or California. The Bills should practise outdoors in the cold like the Patriots do, but that is another issue. I'm not saying Edwards is a pro Bowler, just that he is OK for a guy that just finished his second year, and he is definitely the starter going into next year. I think the Bills should draft a QB in the later rounds, but the biggest needs to address on that side of the ball are run blocking and a WR who can make the other team pay for double-teaming Evans. Maybe Gresham solves both problems.
hxperson
Footballguy
Stats are backwards-looking indicators.
Max Power
Footballguy
and everything else is just hype
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Stop changing your argument. Your initial argument was that "Lynch just isn't very good." Anyone that has actually watched a few of his games knows that's simply not true. Is he a great fantasy RB right now due to his team situation? No, probably not. Although he's clearly a guy with top 10 or even top 5 potential if the rest of the offense improves. But he IS a great RB just stuck in a crappy offense with no dedication to run blocking and up against 8 guys in the box every down.
But just ripping Lynch based on his stats and saying that he's not a good RB displays a general lack of talent evaluation.
But just ripping Lynch based on his stats and saying that he's not a good RB displays a general lack of talent evaluation.
