Marshawn Lynch - my sleeper RB1 (1 Viewer)

[gbill2004]

With the way Seattle has upgraded their offense, Lynch is a sleeper RB1 in my opinion. Seattle has upgraded their OL, and with Rice on board, it will open up the running lanes for Marshawn. He'll get all the redzone/goal line carries, can catch out of the backfield, is a former 1st round draft pick so he has the "pedigree" going for him, has stayed out of trouble this offseason, he's still only 25 years old, and his coach loves him. He is the surefire bellcow on the Seahawks with almost no competition for carries. Lynch is basically Legarrette Blount, but you can get him 3-4 rounds later.

I project 1600 total yards, 40 receptions, and 8-10 TD's. Huge value.

 

[MNTom]

With the way Seattle has upgraded their offense, Lynch is a sleeper RB1 in my opinion. Seattle has upgraded their OL, and with Rice on board, it will open up the running lanes for Marshawn. He'll get all the redzone/goal line carries, can catch out of the backfield, is a former 1st round draft pick so he has the "pedigree" going for him, has stayed out of trouble this offseason, he's still only 25 years old, and his coach loves him. He is the surefire bellcow on the Seahawks with almost no competition for carries. Lynch is basically Legarrette Blount, but you can get him 3-4 rounds later. I project 1600 total yards, 40 receptions, and 8-10 TD's. Huge value.

If Tavaris is the QB, the running lanes will close in a hurry as that more than out weighs the acquisition of Rice. Even a bad Hasselbeck is better than TJ. With that said, I think Lynch could still be a high RB2

 

[ICON211]

I can not get excited about Lynch. I thought he had a chance to be really good when he was drafted, but I have not been very impressed. He runs hard, but he is a terrible short yardage back. Wish I had stats on his conversion percentage on short yardage.

 

[breadtree]

I'm not sure the numbers bear that out. Jackson isn't great, but his QB rating over the last 3 years is very comparable to Hasselbeck.

I also like another year of experience for Okung, the addition of Robert Gallery, and the addition of Tom Cable.

I like Lynch quite a bit this year.

If Tavaris is the QB, the running lanes will close in a hurry as that more than out weighs the acquisition of Rice. Even a bad Hasselbeck is better than TJ.

With that said, I think Lynch could still be a high RB2

 

[Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub]

If he shed 10-15 pounds, I'd be more excited.

 

[King of the Jungle]

If he shed 10-15 pounds, I'd be more excited.

Exactly....the guy coming out of Cal was lighter and had incredible agility. The Lynch of ow weighs seemingly 25 lbs heavier and runs tough but does not have the same attributes that caused him to be a first round pick.

 

[baconisgood]

With the way Seattle has upgraded their offense, Lynch is a sleeper RB1 in my opinion. Seattle has upgraded their OL, and with Rice on board, it will open up the running lanes for Marshawn. He'll get all the redzone/goal line carries, can catch out of the backfield, is a former 1st round draft pick so he has the "pedigree" going for him, has stayed out of trouble this offseason, he's still only 25 years old, and his coach loves him. He is the surefire bellcow on the Seahawks with almost no competition for carries. Lynch is basically Legarrette Blount, but you can get him 3-4 rounds later. I project 1600 total yards, 40 receptions, and 8-10 TD's. Huge value.

Gotta love stuff like this. Take a guy who has been in the league 4 years and the lead back for 2.5 of those years and add 200-300 yards onto his best season and call it a projection.Prorate his time in SEA last year and you get ~950 yards and 8 TDs. Even if the additions to their Oline increase his yards per carry by 30% (from 3.5-4.5 y/c which would be by far the best year of his career) you are still only prorating to ~1200 yards.

 

[shadyridr]

shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

 

[shadyridr]

With the way Seattle has upgraded their offense, Lynch is a sleeper RB1 in my opinion. Seattle has upgraded their OL, and with Rice on board, it will open up the running lanes for Marshawn. He'll get all the redzone/goal line carries, can catch out of the backfield, is a former 1st round draft pick so he has the "pedigree" going for him, has stayed out of trouble this offseason, he's still only 25 years old, and his coach loves him. He is the surefire bellcow on the Seahawks with almost no competition for carries. Lynch is basically Legarrette Blount, but you can get him 3-4 rounds later. I project 1600 total yards, 40 receptions, and 8-10 TD's. Huge value.

Gotta love stuff like this. Take a guy who has been in the league 4 years and the lead back for 2.5 of those years and add 200-300 yards onto his best season and call it a projection.Prorate his time in SEA last year and you get ~950 yards and 8 TDs. Even if the additions to their Oline increase his yards per carry by 30% (from 3.5-4.5 y/c which would be by far the best year of his career) you are still only prorating to ~1200 yards.

this yrs cedric benson (from 2 yrs ago)

 

[baconisgood]

With the way Seattle has upgraded their offense, Lynch is a sleeper RB1 in my opinion. Seattle has upgraded their OL, and with Rice on board, it will open up the running lanes for Marshawn. He'll get all the redzone/goal line carries, can catch out of the backfield, is a former 1st round draft pick so he has the "pedigree" going for him, has stayed out of trouble this offseason, he's still only 25 years old, and his coach loves him. He is the surefire bellcow on the Seahawks with almost no competition for carries. Lynch is basically Legarrette Blount, but you can get him 3-4 rounds later. I project 1600 total yards, 40 receptions, and 8-10 TD's. Huge value.

Gotta love stuff like this. Take a guy who has been in the league 4 years and the lead back for 2.5 of those years and add 200-300 yards onto his best season and call it a projection.Prorate his time in SEA last year and you get ~950 yards and 8 TDs. Even if the additions to their Oline increase his yards per carry by 30% (from 3.5-4.5 y/c which would be by far the best year of his career) you are still only prorating to ~1200 yards.

this yrs cedric benson (from 2 yrs ago)

1362/6? Yeah, sounds about right. Perhaps a couple more TDs.

 

[drater]

Take away that one run in the playoffs against the Saints and nobody is talking about him as more than a 8th-10th round flyer. Plus there's no way he catches 40 balls, Forsett is definitely the 3rd down back and will steal early down carries for a couple series at least once a game. Lynch had 11 games with 10+ carries last year, managed to average more than 4.0 yards per carry in 3 of them. No thanks.

 

[Shutout]

I would temper the projection but can definitely get on board with an improvement. The seahawks have mad a LOT of changes for the good and some of them don't get fantasy love. In that division, with their improvements, I have to think there at least 2-3 games this year where they play with the lead and Lynch has shown effective when you give him a lot of run.

I like the idea, support the improvement, but clip the projection back to about 1250/8-10Tds, 40 catches/230~yards. Very good year's work

 

[DaddyFatSacks]

If he shed 10-15 pounds, I'd be more excited.

He did. Check the news on Lynch.

 

[Patoons]

Take away that one run in the playoffs against the Saints and nobody is talking about him as more than a 8th-10th round flyer. Plus there's no way he catches 40 balls, Forsett is definitely the 3rd down back and will steal early down carries for a couple series at least once a game. Lynch had 11 games with 10+ carries last year, managed to average more than 4.0 yards per carry in 3 of them. No thanks.

The Seahawks have made pretty solid changes to their o-line. He's also now playing in camp with the 'Hawks for the first season and will be starting week 1 with them. Last year it was a mid-season transition which may have halted production some.He's still only 25 and only a few years removed from 1300 total yards and ~50 receptions with the Bills (not exactly the most potent offense either).He's one of the more undervalued RBs out there right now especially considering he'll see most of the teams carries and the o-line upgrades.

 

[Captain Hook]

With the way Seattle has upgraded their offense, Lynch is a sleeper RB1 in my opinion. Seattle has upgraded their OL, and with Rice on board, it will open up the running lanes for Marshawn. He'll get all the redzone/goal line carries, can catch out of the backfield, is a former 1st round draft pick so he has the "pedigree" going for him, has stayed out of trouble this offseason, he's still only 25 years old, and his coach loves him. He is the surefire bellcow on the Seahawks with almost no competition for carries. Lynch is basically Legarrette Blount, but you can get him 3-4 rounds later. I project 1600 total yards, 40 receptions, and 8-10 TD's. Huge value.

Are you a SeaChicken fan?I agree that Lynch will have a good year and offers great value...BUT those numbers are pie in the skyAnd he is NOT and likely will not be an RB1 so you should change the title - but again I agree on the value and upside from most projections

 

[Obie Wan]

With the way Seattle has upgraded their offense, Lynch is a sleeper RB1 in my opinion. Seattle has upgraded their OL, and with Rice on board, it will open up the running lanes for Marshawn. He'll get all the redzone/goal line carries, can catch out of the backfield, is a former 1st round draft pick so he has the "pedigree" going for him, has stayed out of trouble this offseason, he's still only 25 years old, and his coach loves him. He is the surefire bellcow on the Seahawks with almost no competition for carries. Lynch is basically Legarrette Blount, but you can get him 3-4 rounds later. I project 1600 total yards, 40 receptions, and 8-10 TD's. Huge value.

Lynch is dumb as a posthe still hadn't figured out the playbook and where to run by the time the Bills cut him loose.not to mention he is one strike from a 4 game suspension.

 

[poopdawg]

Just picked him up in a redraft. I still say his run last year against the saints was one of the best runs I have ever seen. One of my biggest sleepers this year......

 

[bocksheesh]

Lynch is intriguing for sure. Though I'm not as bullish as some just b/c it's the Seahawks and they've been unsteady for a while now.

Having said that, I know they've made a number of changes on offense. Perhaps the most interesting additions are the two Raiders: Robert Gallery and Zach Miller.

Have the Seahawks made any other notable additions to their OLine? And is Miller considered a strong run blocking TE, or just known for his excellence in receiving?

 

[proninja]

That run was amazing

 

[Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub]

If he shed 10-15 pounds, I'd be more excited.

He did. Check the news on Lynch.

I'll believe it when I see it. The guy looked like Lendale White last year.He's got a decent opportunity, but nothing he did last year really inspires confidence for me. (Yes, the Saint run was nice, but he looked nothing short of terrible outside of that all year long)

 

[ZWK]

Take a look at these 3 RBs

A: 215/807/8 rushing, 24/156/0 receiving

B: 304/1203/16 rushing, 19/139/0 receiving

C: 148/510/2 rushing, 28/172/0 receiving

Their identities? RB A is Marshawn Lynch in his 14 games with Seattle last year (playoffs included), pro-rated to 16 games. RB B is Lynch in the 6 games that Seattle won with him last year, pro-rated to 16 games. RB C is Lynch in Seattle's 8 losses, again pro-rated.

The touchdown numbers seem pretty fluky, but look at that difference in workload between the wins and losses. How is there such a big gap? Well, every one of Seattle's 8 losses was a blowout. Average margin of defeat: 21 points. All 8 were double digit losses, and in 7 of the 8 they were already down by double digits at halftime. Those are games where Seattle abandoned the run and took their early-down back out of the game.

More than most RBs, Lynch's fate this year depends on whether his team is any good. If Seattle can at least keep games close this year, then Lynch can stay on the field and be a solid RB2 (maybe 1200 yfs and 8 TDs). Cedric Benson is the right comparison - lots of carries, a good number of TDs, mediocre ypc, not much receiving value. He might even turn into a low-end RB1 if the team gets him enough goalline chances and leads to protect. But if Seattle keeps getting blown out, then Lynch will spend more time on the bench and end up as a borderline RB2/RB3 again, best used as a platoon back. If you're lucky, though, you could still get 6 starts from RB B when Seattle has an easy matchup, and 10 weeks with RB C on your bench when they have a tough opponent.

 

[SSOG]

I can not get excited about Lynch. I thought he had a chance to be really good when he was drafted, but I have not been very impressed. He runs hard, but he is a terrible short yardage back. Wish I had stats on his conversion percentage on short yardage.

Your instinct is correct. Last year there were 24 different backs to get 10+ carries on 3rd-4th down with 1-2 yards to go. Of those backs, Lynch ranked 24th in conversion%. Here are his year-by-year short yardage stats:2010- 11 attempts, 10 yards, 4 first downs2009- 5 attempts, 3 yards, 2 first downs2008- 14 attempts, 52 yards, 10 first downs2007- 17 attempts, 20 yards, 7 first downsCareer- 47 attempts, 85 yards, 23 first downs (49% conversion rate)Of the 44 RBs who have 25+ total short yardage attempts over the last 4 seasons, Lynch is one of two who has converted less than 50%. The other such RB was Maurice Morris, who converted a pathetic 10 first downs on 27 attempts.

 

[trader jake]

Take a look at these 3 RBsA: 215/807/8 rushing, 24/156/0 receivingB: 304/1203/16 rushing, 19/139/0 receivingC: 148/510/2 rushing, 28/172/0 receivingTheir identities? RB A is Marshawn Lynch in his 14 games with Seattle last year (playoffs included), pro-rated to 16 games. RB B is Lynch in the 6 games that Seattle won with him last year, pro-rated to 16 games. RB C is Lynch in Seattle's 8 losses, again pro-rated.The touchdown numbers seem pretty fluky, but look at that difference in workload between the wins and losses. How is there such a big gap? Well, every one of Seattle's 8 losses was a blowout. Average margin of defeat: 21 points. All 8 were double digit losses, and in 7 of the 8 they were already down by double digits at halftime. Those are games where Seattle abandoned the run and took their early-down back out of the game.More than most RBs, Lynch's fate this year depends on whether his team is any good. If Seattle can at least keep games close this year, then Lynch can stay on the field and be a solid RB2 (maybe 1200 yfs and 8 TDs). Cedric Benson is the right comparison - lots of carries, a good number of TDs, mediocre ypc, not much receiving value. He might even turn into a low-end RB1 if the team gets him enough goalline chances and leads to protect. But if Seattle keeps getting blown out, then Lynch will spend more time on the bench and end up as a borderline RB2/RB3 again, best used as a platoon back. If you're lucky, though, you could still get 6 starts from RB B when Seattle has an easy matchup, and 10 weeks with RB C on your bench when they have a tough opponent.

Very informative post. Thanks for the contribution.

 

[mbuehner]

Must be August, here come the Marshawn 'this year for sure' threads. If Seattle has a 30+ year old journeymen running back on the roster, that's the guy you want.

 

[SSOG]

Must be August, here come the Marshawn 'this year for sure' threads. If Seattle has a 30+ year old journeymen running back on the roster, that's the guy you want.

Are you calling Marshawn a guy who always gets hyped in August but disappoints by December? If so, I've got to disagree- the guy finished 12th as a rookie (in 13 games) and 15th as a sophomore. His per-game numbers over those two seasons pro-rate out to 1500/9 a season. He's been productive in the past. Someone who said "this year for sure" every single season would be batting .500 at this point.Does this mean I think this is going to be Lynch's year? Not necessarily, but let's analyze him based on reality rather than fantasy (such as the notion that he always disappoints or that he has no history of production).

 

[breadtree]

I can not get excited about Lynch. I thought he had a chance to be really good when he was drafted, but I have not been very impressed. He runs hard, but he is a terrible short yardage back. Wish I had stats on his conversion percentage on short yardage.

Your instinct is correct. Last year there were 24 different backs to get 10+ carries on 3rd-4th down with 1-2 yards to go. Of those backs, Lynch ranked 24th in conversion%. Here are his year-by-year short yardage stats:2010- 11 attempts, 10 yards, 4 first downs2009- 5 attempts, 3 yards, 2 first downs2008- 14 attempts, 52 yards, 10 first downs2007- 17 attempts, 20 yards, 7 first downsCareer- 47 attempts, 85 yards, 23 first downs (49% conversion rate)Of the 44 RBs who have 25+ total short yardage attempts over the last 4 seasons, Lynch is one of two who has converted less than 50%. The other such RB was Maurice Morris, who converted a pathetic 10 first downs on 27 attempts.

That's really good info. Can you link to the source? Not saying I don't believe you, I just want to be able to look at other guys' numbers. Thanks.

 

[SSOG]

That's really good info. Can you link to the source? Not saying I don't believe you, I just want to be able to look at other guys' numbers. Thanks.

All stats come from the data dominator. It's probably only open to subscribers at this point, but I say every year that I buy a subscription just for the access to the Data Dominator and Historical Data Dominator. Everything else is nice, but it's strictly gravy.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I can not get excited about Lynch. I thought he had a chance to be really good when he was drafted, but I have not been very impressed. He runs hard, but he is a terrible short yardage back. Wish I had stats on his conversion percentage on short yardage.

Your instinct is correct. Last year there were 24 different backs to get 10+ carries on 3rd-4th down with 1-2 yards to go. Of those backs, Lynch ranked 24th in conversion%. Here are his year-by-year short yardage stats:2010- 11 attempts, 10 yards, 4 first downs

2009- 5 attempts, 3 yards, 2 first downs

2008- 14 attempts, 52 yards, 10 first downs

2007- 17 attempts, 20 yards, 7 first downs

Career- 47 attempts, 85 yards, 23 first downs (49% conversion rate)

Of the 44 RBs who have 25+ total short yardage attempts over the last 4 seasons, Lynch is one of two who has converted less than 50%. The other such RB was Maurice Morris, who converted a pathetic 10 first downs on 27 attempts.

Last year is the key to your analysis. Its not a projection. The line is very different from last year. Short yardage isn't won by the RB, its won by the Oline.LEG SWEPT!!!

 

[chihawk]

I think the Seahawks will have an improved running game this year (mostly benefiting Lynch) but there is definitely a big risk in how the Oline will play. I have high hopes for the Oline, but you have to remember that the right side of that line is going to be two rookies so there's a big unknown there.

 

[GDogg]

I can not get excited about Lynch. I thought he had a chance to be really good when he was drafted, but I have not been very impressed. He runs hard, but he is a terrible short yardage back. Wish I had stats on his conversion percentage on short yardage.

Your instinct is correct. Last year there were 24 different backs to get 10+ carries on 3rd-4th down with 1-2 yards to go. Of those backs, Lynch ranked 24th in conversion%. Here are his year-by-year short yardage stats:2010- 11 attempts, 10 yards, 4 first downs

2009- 5 attempts, 3 yards, 2 first downs

2008- 14 attempts, 52 yards, 10 first downs

2007- 17 attempts, 20 yards, 7 first downs

Career- 47 attempts, 85 yards, 23 first downs (49% conversion rate)

Of the 44 RBs who have 25+ total short yardage attempts over the last 4 seasons, Lynch is one of two who has converted less than 50%. The other such RB was Maurice Morris, who converted a pathetic 10 first downs on 27 attempts.

Last year is the key to your analysis. Its not a projection. The line is very different from last year. Short yardage isn't won by the RB, its won by the Oline.LEG SWEPT!!!

Did you not look at the statistics? It wasn't a one year breakdown. He was pretty darn good in 2008, but very bad in 2010, 2009 (this year was a tiny sample) and 2007.I like Marshawn, but he hasn't done well in short yardage over the past 4 season combined.

 

[SSOG]

Your instinct is correct. Last year there were 24 different backs to get 10+ carries on 3rd-4th down with 1-2 yards to go. Of those backs, Lynch ranked 24th in conversion%. Here are his year-by-year short yardage stats:

2010- 11 attempts, 10 yards, 4 first downs

2009- 5 attempts, 3 yards, 2 first downs

2008- 14 attempts, 52 yards, 10 first downs

2007- 17 attempts, 20 yards, 7 first downs

Career- 47 attempts, 85 yards, 23 first downs (49% conversion rate)

Of the 44 RBs who have 25+ total short yardage attempts over the last 4 seasons, Lynch is one of two who has converted less than 50%. The other such RB was Maurice Morris, who converted a pathetic 10 first downs on 27 attempts.

Last year is the key to your analysis. Its not a projection. The line is very different from last year. Short yardage isn't won by the RB, its won by the Oline.LEG SWEPT!!!

[*]First off, nothing was the "key to my analysis", because there was no analysis. That was strictly a data dump given at the OP's request. He asked for Lynch's conversion percentage. I provided it.

[*]Second off, why on earth did you fixate on the words "last year" when I clearly provided 4 years worth of data?

[*]Third off, where did I say anything about that being a projection? There are predictive statistics, and there are descriptive statistics. I was providing descriptive statistics- statistics that described what had happened on the field to this point.

[*]Fourth off, I don't dispute that the offensive line matters, but if you want to say that the RB is irrelevant in short yardage situations, then you've obviously never in your life seen Matt Forte or Maurice Jones-Drew play. Seriously, the RB matters. He matters quite a lot.

[*]Fifth off, if you want an apples to apples comparison (i.e. only comparing Lynch to players running behind the same o-line), I'd be happy to provide that as well. Since 2007, Lynch has converted 23 first downs on 47 attempts, good for 49%. All of his teammates combined (Dwayne Wright, Anthony Thomas, Fred Jackson, Xavier Oman, Corey McIntyre, Leon Washington, Michael Robinson, and Justin Forsett) have converted 20 first downs on 35 attempts, good for 57%. Like before, I'm just providing data and leaving you all free to do your own analysis based on it.

LEG UNSWEPT!!!

 

[Chaka]

Lynch is intriguing for sure. Though I'm not as bullish as some just b/c it's the Seahawks and they've been unsteady for a while now.

Having said that, I know they've made a number of changes on offense. Perhaps the most interesting additions are the two Raiders: Robert Gallery and Zach Miller.

Have the Seahawks made any other notable additions to their OLine? And is Miller considered a strong run blocking TE, or just known for his excellence in receiving?

Max Unger in '09, Okung in '10, James Carpenter '11 (all first round picks) plus Gallery and Tom Cable.That looks like the foundation of a solid unit for years to come.

 

[joffer]

I can not get excited about Lynch. I thought he had a chance to be really good when he was drafted, but I have not been very impressed. He runs hard, but he is a terrible short yardage back. Wish I had stats on his conversion percentage on short yardage.

Your instinct is correct. Last year there were 24 different backs to get 10+ carries on 3rd-4th down with 1-2 yards to go. Of those backs, Lynch ranked 24th in conversion%. Here are his year-by-year short yardage stats:2010- 11 attempts, 10 yards, 4 first downs

2009- 5 attempts, 3 yards, 2 first downs

2008- 14 attempts, 52 yards, 10 first downs

2007- 17 attempts, 20 yards, 7 first downs

Career- 47 attempts, 85 yards, 23 first downs (49% conversion rate)

Of the 44 RBs who have 25+ total short yardage attempts over the last 4 seasons, Lynch is one of two who has converted less than 50%. The other such RB was Maurice Morris, who converted a pathetic 10 first downs on 27 attempts.

Last year is the key to your analysis. Its not a projection. The line is very different from last year. Short yardage isn't won by the RB, its won by the Oline.LEG SWEPT!!!

wat?

 

[NajehHejan]

Lynch is intriguing for sure. Though I'm not as bullish as some just b/c it's the Seahawks and they've been unsteady for a while now.

Having said that, I know they've made a number of changes on offense. Perhaps the most interesting additions are the two Raiders: Robert Gallery and Zach Miller.

Have the Seahawks made any other notable additions to their OLine? And is Miller considered a strong run blocking TE, or just known for his excellence in receiving?

Max Unger in '09, Okung in '10, James Carpenter '11 (all first round picks) plus Gallery and Tom Cable.That looks like the foundation of a solid unit for years to come.

Cable did an excellent job making Oakland's OL one of the better run blocking units in the league. If he can bring just half of that success to Seattle this year then I give Lynch a good shot at high end RB2 numbers.

 

[Hooper31]

I'm a Seahawk fan. I'm hopeful that the offensive line will be much improved. However, starting two rookies and a third year player that doesn't have a lot of experience makes me a bit queasy. The 49ers drafted and started two rookies (both higher picks, both in the first round) last year. How did that work?

Could it all come together and result in an awesome running attack? Sure, but I wouldn't write it in stone.

All my pessimism aside, I think Okung and Gallery have the potential to be a devastating tandem on the left side. Most know what they are getting with Gallery, but I believe Okung has the potential to really surprise people this season. He completely handled Peppers in the first game against Chicago last season (much of it one on one). Really looking forward to seeing how he follows the legendary Walter Jones here in Seattle.

 

[shadyridr]

With the way Seattle has upgraded their offense, Lynch is a sleeper RB1 in my opinion. Seattle has upgraded their OL, and with Rice on board, it will open up the running lanes for Marshawn. He'll get all the redzone/goal line carries, can catch out of the backfield, is a former 1st round draft pick so he has the "pedigree" going for him, has stayed out of trouble this offseason, he's still only 25 years old, and his coach loves him. He is the surefire bellcow on the Seahawks with almost no competition for carries. Lynch is basically Legarrette Blount, but you can get him 3-4 rounds later. I project 1600 total yards, 40 receptions, and 8-10 TD's. Huge value.

shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

With the way Seattle has upgraded their offense, Lynch is a sleeper RB1 in my opinion. Seattle has upgraded their OL, and with Rice on board, it will open up the running lanes for Marshawn. He'll get all the redzone/goal line carries, can catch out of the backfield, is a former 1st round draft pick so he has the "pedigree" going for him, has stayed out of trouble this offseason, he's still only 25 years old, and his coach loves him. He is the surefire bellcow on the Seahawks with almost no competition for carries. Lynch is basically Legarrette Blount, but you can get him 3-4 rounds later. I project 1600 total yards, 40 receptions, and 8-10 TD's. Huge value.

Gotta love stuff like this. Take a guy who has been in the league 4 years and the lead back for 2.5 of those years and add 200-300 yards onto his best season and call it a projection.Prorate his time in SEA last year and you get ~950 yards and 8 TDs. Even if the additions to their Oline increase his yards per carry by 30% (from 3.5-4.5 y/c which would be by far the best year of his career) you are still only prorating to ~1200 yards.

this yrs cedric benson (from 2 yrs ago)