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Marvin Jones (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter uniman4
- Start date
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I've been trying to sell but no takers. I'm sort of stuck on the fence with him. If I keep him as my 4th WR I suppose I could do worse. I had hoped for more. So perhaps a hold is where it's at for me. I know that wasn't your question but I don't know how to project him.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
After his early dominance he faded, I think he was playing hurt most of the year, so I think he's a great buy low candidate. Stafford spread the ball better than previous years, and with the tackle woes I think the tes will be blocking or at least chipping on the left side, and boldin is gone, so I would imagine steady targets. The defense should be improved, and the running game might, but they will throw plenty.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I would expect about the same as what I projected for him last season.
80-100-120 targets 50-63-75 receptions at a career yards/reception of 14.1 705-888-1057 yards 4-6 TD
He fell a bit short of the median range projection but he also missed one game. Pro rating his performance last year for the one game missed he was on pace for 110 targets 59 receptions 992 yards 4 TD.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
He's probably a positive regression to the mean candidate for TDs.
I like to throw in his playoff game to make 16 games. If you do that, he's at 59/1011/4
He had a thigh injury and Stafford had a finger injury. They both tanked in the 2nd half of the season. I think Stafford's TD:INT ratio splits were 16:4 & 8:6. His YPA dropped from 7.6 to 7.0. Something was clearly wrong.
If he and Stafford can stay healthy, I think he's got a great chance to improve upon his numbers last year, making him quite a value play (WR49).
I'll say 120 targets x 60% = 72 rec x 15 ypr = 1080 and 7 TDs
If every single NFL player stays healthy, that's probably high end WR3 range, but comparing to last year (injuries always inflate season ending rankings) that would be a mid-WR2.
flysack
Footballguy
We see articles like this every offseason. Some disappointing player works out with some vet or legend and it's supposed to bode well for the player. It never does. Ergo articles like this are meaningless garbage.
I'm sure he worked out with Moss. I'm sure he enjoyed it. I'm also sure it will mean jack squat week 1.
CalBear
Footballguy
I agree that working out with Moss isn't particularly meaningful, but Jones isn't a "disappointing player." He's a 5th-round pick who's performed better than any of the top WR picks from 2012 (Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, AJ Jenkins, Quick). He's worked hard to get where he is; he's not a physical freak.
flysack
Footballguy
CalBear
Footballguy
So you're disappointed in a player who followed up a 816/4 season with a 933/4 season? Maybe the player isn't the problem.
VaTerp
Footballguy
What a difference a year makes. On page 8 of this thread I, and several others, were swooning over Jones. Obviously the great start to last season had many of us thinking we had a WR1 on our hands. He then fell off the face of the earth.
I've read all the fluff pieces this offseason and he seems like a dedicated and focused guy.
But maybe I just have a bad taste in my mouth from his drop after the first few weeks of last season. What I saw was a guy who really struggled to separate and get open once defenses adjusted to him, particularly with press coverage. I'm not convinced that a 5th year WR, despite off season workouts and all, is really gonna be able to overcome that at this stage of his career.
Then again, he looked so good out of the gate last season and for some stretches in Cincy. Plus if Stafford plays better than he did in the 2nd half of last year after the thumb injury then maybe he's a great value again.
Thoughts on Marvin headed into opening Sunday?
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ourmanflint
Footballguy
Is he going to be able to beat press man? That was part of his downfall last year. I've read he's been working on his strength so maybe he will be better at it. It's also clear he has developed more rapport with Stafford. They both talk about it and it was Jones' main focus in his off-season training with Moss. But if he can beat press coverage, he could emerge as the Lion's clear #1 and it could be a big year.
VaTerp
Footballguy
I really think it could be this simple. I guess my question was do we think a 5th year WR is going to suddenly be able to beat press coverage.
I've read all the stuff about working on lower body strength, working with Moss, better connection with Stafford, etc. But I'm not convinced Jones will be able to consistently win against press coverage. I think defenses figured out how to defend him once they really focused and gameplanned for him and I don't see it changing that much.
He still has value as a WR3/4 with the occasional good game. But I think the tease of being a top 15-20 WR was just that.
bulger2holt
Footballguy
I think his injuries last year really slowed him. He's healthy now and I think WR2 is a safe bet this year.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Barring injury I would expect a career year from him.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Tough opener going up against Peterson, but I expect him to have a career year if he stays healthy.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
ourmanflint
Footballguy
The expectation is that Peterson will shadow Tate. The total on this game is around 48 and if Jones does indeed draw Bethel, he may contribute significantly to that total. I'm cautiously optimistic about Jones this week and am starting him in several leagues over the likes of Ginn, Maclin and possibly even Abullah. Am a little worried though about the Lions missing Decker against the Cardinals pass rush.
Isn't he a 6th year WR? 4 years at Cincy and this will be his 2nd at Detroit. Either way, I think health was his primary problem last year (his and also Stafford's), but if press coverage really was his Achilles heal then yeah, I do think he can learn to beat it, at least enough to improve. I say this because it's possible that it just wasn't enough of an issue earlier in his career that it warranted that much attention.
I'm all in on him this year. I nabbed him halfheartedly last year, as I was prepared to grab whoever was cheaper between Tate and Jones, but I'm optimistic about Jones this year and made him a primary target. I think he is a WR2 with a WR4 price, which really opened up my drafting strategies this year.
TartanLion
Footballguy
His price this year dictated that he was a must grab for me in as many leagues as possible. I think he'll be a WR2/3 for most of the season with the possibility for some big weeks. Lions have a tough schedule so we could be playing from behind a lot
VaTerp
Footballguy
Some good points and yes, this is his 6th year not 5th.FF Ninja said:
I drafted Jones on the cheap in my auction and agree on the value.
I was offered Woodhead for him and am trying to figure out what I think of his prospects this year. Im stronger at RB than I am at WR so I may just hang on to Jones.
im tempted to start him today, especially with the early bye leaving me without my WR1.
Very eager to see how he looks vs this Cardinals secondary.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
I have him in at flex (10 starters), was planning to start Parker instead until his game was cancelled
bulger2holt
Footballguy
I'm starting him over Duke Johnson at PPR Flex. Heard Peterson is covering Tate. Looks good for Marvin today
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Chaka
Footballguy
Hard to excited about Jones after five seasons of pretty much nothing-burgers (if you don't recognize 10 TDs on 51 catches in 2013, 4 in one game, as a massive fluke/outlier we probably don't have enough common ground for debate).
HOWEVER that being said I think there are a couple reasons to be a little optimistic going into this season. 1) He had a great YPC , 16.9, last year on 55 catches, which makes the way they deploy him interesting. 2) He had his career worst catch rate last season 53.4%.
If he can get his catch rate back up to his Cincinnati average of 62.3%, a big if, AND if he can keep up his YPC, maybe a bigger if, then he could be a 1,000 yard receiver for the first time in his career.
I think his ceiling is, realistically, a WR3 in PPR.
HOWEVER that being said I think there are a couple reasons to be a little optimistic going into this season. 1) He had a great YPC , 16.9, last year on 55 catches, which makes the way they deploy him interesting. 2) He had his career worst catch rate last season 53.4%.
If he can get his catch rate back up to his Cincinnati average of 62.3%, a big if, AND if he can keep up his YPC, maybe a bigger if, then he could be a 1,000 yard receiver for the first time in his career.
I think his ceiling is, realistically, a WR3 in PPR.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
ImTheScientist said:
ourmanflint said:
CentralPA said:
If you guys think ESPN & RW got this call right, good on you. Start him with confidence.
My analysis (which is not consensus) is the Lions will avoid the Tate-Peterson matchup by putting Golden in the slot. The ran the 11 formation 73% of the time last year, so we can expect 3 wideouts for about 45-50 plays. In 2014 & 2015, the Lions put Tate in the slot for 363 & 367 snaps. Last year, Boldin was preferred in the slot and Golden only had 161 snaps there. I expect Jim Bob Cooter to have him back inside more often.
We'll find out who's right in a few hours...
Snorkelson
Footballguy
If Peterson shadows him it means he goes where Tate goes, slot, outside, backfield. You're right Tate will work from the slot this year in 3 wr sets. They may not use as many, especially early on, as I see them using 2tes and having some blind side help with decker out. This could be the case for the first month or so.If you guys think ESPN & RW got this call right, good on you. Start him with confidence.
My analysis (which is not consensus) is the Lions will avoid the Tate-Peterson matchup by putting Golden in the slot. The ran the 11 formation 73% of the time last year, so we can expect 3 wideouts for about 45-50 plays. In 2014 & 2015, the Lions put Tate in the slot for 363 & 367 snaps. Last year, Boldin was preferred in the slot and Golden only had 161 snaps there. I expect Jim Bob Cooter to have him back inside more often.
We'll find out who's right in a few hours...
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
That would be a departure from how AZ has used him in the past. PP role doesn't change from week to week; he takes the WR1 on the outside, regardless of side. But when they go to the slot (find tape of AB or Diggs v. PP), they get handed off to Tyrann Mathieu.
Maybe 2017 is different.
bulger2holt
Footballguy
Tate in the slot shouldn't stop Peterson from covering him.
shadrap
Footballguy
NeverEnough
Footballguy
I have been trying to trade Jones since last year & NO ONE wants him. Same with Lamar Miller.
bulger2holt
Footballguy
Did Peterson cover Marvin?
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
The TD made the day not a total loss, but the emergence of the rookie is gonna make Jones tough to start from this point forward.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
This, he is going to be 5th or 6th on the pecking order by the end of the year. Tate, Galloday, Riddick, Ebron, Abdullah. I don't know his cap number, but he might be cut this offseason.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I didn't watch the game but if Peterson indeed shadowed Jones it's hard to read too much into the situation yet. We probably won't know what the pecking order looks like for another couple weeks.
djmich
Footballguy
I read a stat that last years in early start games for the Cardinals, they gave up ~31 points. In late state games, they gave up ~18. I had Jones in some of my lineups because of that and it panned out with the touchdown. Didn't think he'd be shadowed by Peterson though, thought it was gonna be Bethel.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Not sure what this means, but Tate is a slot guy and they have the badger for that and Galloday was a rookie playing his 1st game. Jones has been a just a guy since like 5 or 6 last year.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Actually this. Week 1 is full of overreactions and reading way too much into situational play. Calling Jones 5th in a pecking order without regard to how the game plan needed to adjust and coverage assignments played out is folly.
If I was a Jones owner I'd be concerned about having to potentially adjust targets for the season downward as mix may change if Golladay continues to shine.
But this team will continue to pass a lot and spread the targets around as they did in this game. Jones was always an opportunist start with Tate as the de facto #1, and I don't see that changing based on this game.
Time will tell over the next two games, but for now will let other owners freak about changing pecking orders after the first game of the season.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I mean it was reported yesterday that Peterson was going to shadow Tate but that obviously didn't happen.
It makes very little sense since according to PFF, Peterson only lined up in the slot 13% of the time last year (I believe it's from last year and not cumulative) where as Matthieu lined up in the slot 93% of the time. But even PFF had Peterson shadowing Tate this week. I guess it was a smokescreen.
It makes very little sense since according to PFF, Peterson only lined up in the slot 13% of the time last year (I believe it's from last year and not cumulative) where as Matthieu lined up in the slot 93% of the time. But even PFF had Peterson shadowing Tate this week. I guess it was a smokescreen.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
This isn't an over reaction from 1 game. I owned him in multiple leagues and watched him all year. He had 408 yards after 3 games and 522 in the next 13. His hot start had more to do with Tate's slow start. He will be okay for a best ball receiver, but trying to pick when to start him as your 3rd receiver or flex guy will suck, he will need injuries to get back on the fantasy radar.
You even said if you were a Jones owner you would adjust his targets down. He had 94 last year without Riddick or any running game and now he has to deal with that and Golladay. How much lower can his targets go and still be on a fantasy roster?
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
ESPN reported it and CBS, PFF, & RW served as the echo chamber. I made the case upthread from both sides (Tate's slot usage in the two years pre-Boldin, PP doesn't go to the slot when he is shadowing) but nobody bought into it.
Jones will have better games. He had a 103 targets the last two years (Tate 135, Boldin 95, other WRs 39 in 2016.) The WRs as a group had 25 targets today (41 PA), so that's right in line with what I project for 2017 - roughly 600 ATT, 375 WR targets. Tate's usage has been pretty consistent four years running, hasn't changed with/without Megatron. I expect him to have around 135. TJ Jones had 4 today, I don't expect that trend to continue - he and Abbrederis might not get 50 targets on the year IMO. That leaves 190 to divvy up between the rookie and MJJ. Both of Marvin's catches today were extended play fire drills, and I think it is a good sign that Stafford was looking for him when plays broke down. In those situations a veteran QB looks for the guys he can trust. That only he got two targets is more a sign of the respect Peterson commands than anything else.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Thanks @BobbyLayne for making it so I didn't have to scroll to find you're comments on Tate/pp matchup. Good call.
I think the lions will have Tate, who will give consistent games, and a bunch of guys that will put up a game but will be hard to figure out when. A bunch of flex/bye week darts. Stafford spreads the ball these days, I don't expect too many 9 catch games for anybody. Golladay is already commanding red zone targets in the game plan (scored on a fade, missed a 2 pt conversion in a fade, and I think I remember one other rz target in there). Without checking the box I don't remember the tes getting any catches, ebron had a few targets but nothing he really should have caught. Maybe ebron isn't a part of the game plan after missing preseason, or is blocking more. As far as jones being a cap cut next year, let's see what happens the rest of this year first. Hes not a star, but he's a good football player.
I think the lions will have Tate, who will give consistent games, and a bunch of guys that will put up a game but will be hard to figure out when. A bunch of flex/bye week darts. Stafford spreads the ball these days, I don't expect too many 9 catch games for anybody. Golladay is already commanding red zone targets in the game plan (scored on a fade, missed a 2 pt conversion in a fade, and I think I remember one other rz target in there). Without checking the box I don't remember the tes getting any catches, ebron had a few targets but nothing he really should have caught. Maybe ebron isn't a part of the game plan after missing preseason, or is blocking more. As far as jones being a cap cut next year, let's see what happens the rest of this year first. Hes not a star, but he's a good football player.
