msudaisy26
Footballguy
If I am reading his contract right he will be an 8.6 million dollar cap hit next and only 4.8 million if cut. If he doesn't pick it up he will be cut. No one wants to pay someone 8.6 million for this production.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Marvin Jones (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter uniman4
- Start date
He drew the best shut down cover man in the game and still put up respectable points on only two targets. But there are lots of options in Detroit and Tate is the only guy who will be guaranteed lots if targets, but Jones will get his. Solid WR3 numbers with occasionally a big game.
I'm in the same boat (didn't watch the game, going on what others have said) so I feel like this is the correct take...
...and this is the wrong take. Like jon_mx above said, Peterson is the best shut down CB in the league. Let's not freak out yet. Also, let's think about it like this: if Marvin Jones is actually only the 5th or 6th best receiving threat on the team like you are implying, then why did an NFL team put their best CB on him? Because they didn't spend enough time in the Shark Pool's Golladay hype train thread??
Galloday's talent is probably decent, but this game screamed fluke to me. Let's not forget that Terrance Williams outscored Dez Bryant this week. I know Galloday had preseason buzz and then a good week 1 so people are penciling him in for the HoF, but let's be realistic.
--------------------------------------------------------------
If there's a takeaway from this game it's that Stafford spread the ball around very well while avoiding Peterson. Seems like the smart play. I'm glad I nabbed him in several leagues (but was too scared to start him against Arizona - doh!). I think he's going to have a very good year.
P.S. Just watched the TD reply and Peterson was definitely the CB on Marvin for that play.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Did Peterson guard him the last 13 games last year?
Maybe he does turn it around, but I think he is just another guy and I have 14 games backing it up. You don't pay those guys 8 million plus a year, and they don't start for your fantasy teams very often.
Everything I've read has said he had a quad injury that affected him last year and that defenses adjusted to him and were able to limit him with press coverage where he struggled. It seems as though he's fully healthy this year and worked to get better at defeating press coverage this offseason. But again, I think the fact that an NFL team with a scouting department and bevy of coaches decided to put their best CB on Marvin says they think he's their best WR. I know jaded fantasy owners like to jump to extreme conclusions (seems players are either studs or jags), but I'm pretty confident he's not 5th or 6th down the line like you said.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Or maybe those coaches made a mistake. Coaches make them all the time.
All players get banged up as the year goes on and Jones has never been the healthiest player, I expect him to get banged up again.
I just don't see how a guy is going to be a wr 3, when he will be 3rd or lower in receptions, have less than 5 touchdowns and probably be 3rd or lower in yards on his own team.
If Jones only drew two targets against Peterson, I can't see him faring much better next week against the Giants' contingent of Jenkins/Apple/Rodgers-Cromartie.
He should be on the waiver wire soon enough....may be worth a look in the 2nd half of the season and/or once his targets pick up. Until then, he's a complete weekly dart throw just like every other WR in the ADP 40-60 range.
He should be on the waiver wire soon enough....may be worth a look in the 2nd half of the season and/or once his targets pick up. Until then, he's a complete weekly dart throw just like every other WR in the ADP 40-60 range.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Snap counts
QB Matthew Stafford 71 (100 percent)
WR Marvin Jones 68 (96 percent)
WR Golden Tate 63 (89 percent)
TE Eric Ebron 51 (72 percent)
WR Kenny Golladay 44 (62 percent)
RB Ameer Abdullah 36 (51 percent)
TE Darren Fells 32 (45 percent)
RB Theo Riddick 21 (30 percent)
WR TJ Jones 19 (27 percent)
RB Dwayne Washington 14 (20 percent)
TE Michael Roberts 6 (8 percent)
DE Alex Barrett 1 (1 percent)
QB Matthew Stafford 71 (100 percent)
WR Marvin Jones 68 (96 percent)
WR Golden Tate 63 (89 percent)
TE Eric Ebron 51 (72 percent)
WR Kenny Golladay 44 (62 percent)
RB Ameer Abdullah 36 (51 percent)
TE Darren Fells 32 (45 percent)
RB Theo Riddick 21 (30 percent)
WR TJ Jones 19 (27 percent)
RB Dwayne Washington 14 (20 percent)
TE Michael Roberts 6 (8 percent)
DE Alex Barrett 1 (1 percent)
Time will tell. But what happens more often? Professional coaches misjudging who a team's best WR is or fantasy football players burying a guy after an injury (and then over-hyping a mid round rookie)?
And yes, I'm not going to say your blanket statement about injuries is wrong, but I am going to say that it should be pretty obvious that not all injuries are the same.
And finally, that riddle you left is indeed tricky. The problem is that it is deeply flawed. Clearly either the things you say will come true and he won't be a WR3, or all your assumptions are flat out wrong. I'm going to bet that he won't be 3rd or lower in receptions, and he won't be 3rd or lower in yards, and he won't have less than 5 TDs.
Good stuff. Where did you get this data already?
At least the coaches like him even if the Shark Pool doesn't.
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
Thanks for posting FFN, I think I am going to hold him for another week or two.. he was something special early last year...
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
It's his sixth season and he has never really done much. He has maybe 3 notable games in his career, the 4 TD game forever ago, the 200 yarder last year and probably one other.
Just saying I wouldn't hold my breath for anything above WR3 production.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Last year he was 5th on the Lions in receptions behind Tate, Boldin, Ebron and Riddick, he was 2nd in yards due to his hot start and Tate's slow start and in the 4 years where he actually played games in the NFL he has 19 touchdowns.
I would say my projections are dead on.
Last edited by a moderator:
And I would say they are wrong. Your numbers try to look backwards while mine look forward. I don't really care what he did as a backup in Cincy. His end of year numbers while injured were decent in Detroit. I expect them to be better in year 2. He survived probably his hardest matchup with decent fantasy numbers, so I'm still optimistic about my bargain.
Last edited by a moderator:
msudaisy26
Footballguy
You do realize he was the starter opposite of A.J Green? You have to look at what he did, it tells you what kind of player they are. That is why David Johnson and LeVeon Bell were the top 2 picks this year. This wasn't his most difficult match up. Peterson is a great corner, but the Giants have a better defense and 3 really good corners, the Vikings have a better defense and he has to face them twice, and the Ravens in Baltimore.
You say I am wrong because I look in the past, I say you are wrong because you want to be right about your *bargain*
I will say I do think he can be a factor if either of these things happen.
Tate gets hurt, or if the Lions lose 2 of there other starting pass catchers Riddick, Ebron, and Golladay. The later does feel like a strong possibility with Ebron already nicked up.
Last edited by a moderator:
TartanLion
Footballguy
Guess it depends on who is on your wire. For the price he cost he shouldn't really be higher than your 3rd choice WR and that's at a very push. Unless there's an absolute waiver wire gem out there, he's good option to cover some really bad matchups/bye weeks/or an injury, should he be required to do so. I do believe the injury derailed him last year, I think if you had to start him in a three week run during season, he's liable to give you 1-2 weeks like yesterday, with the possibility that one of those could go for a TD or 2 and 100 yards plus. He will get some this year at times, I feel confident of that
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I would grab him off of waivers, he is a decent stash. No way am I putting him as my wr3 or flex and feeling confident. I actually have to start him next week because I lost D.J., Woodhead, and not feeling great about some of my other possible flex plays
You do realize that was true only for one of his three years in Cincy? You used all three years to make your point. He was a backup for 2 of those 3 years. And being the WR2 in Cincy isn't the same as being the WR2 in somewhere like GB. And I'd rather him face 3 good CBs than 1. If Tate and whoever are facing tough corners, too, then Stafford will be more apt to spread it around than to just ignore whoever is faced up against the only stud CB he's facing.msudaisy26 said:
I say you are wrong because your logic is poor. And you've got it backwards here: You say I'm wrong because I want to be right about my bargain? That doesn't even make sense. I think you are trying to say I'm overly optimistic because I'm biased, but in reality I do most of my drafts very late. I did my analysis on Jones before my drafts and I specifically targeted him due to that. I didn't just luck into him and decide to start hyping him afterwards. FWIW, he was on my bench this week in all but one league (a 12 team with an expanded starting lineup league where I start 4WR).
The Lions view Jones as their WR1. Their opponents view him as their WR1. I'm confident he'll disprove your projections regardless of injuries to his teammates. I mean, c'mon, you're acting like Ebron is better than him! That's just mean spirited. Nobody likes Ebron!
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
3G 13/6-88-2
unstartable
too good to drop (for who? wire is bare)
bye week filler
sound about right?
unstartable
too good to drop (for who? wire is bare)
bye week filler
sound about right?
CentralPA
Footballguy
He's got about another week on my roster then I'm probably looking for better options.
electric Ape
Footballguy
Yes sounds about right, not startable at the moment.
I definitely wouldn't drop just yet. He was shadowed by Peterson week 1 and saw a lot of Truffant week 3. Week 2 he had a good first half but then the Lions shut it down and threw 4 passes after halftime.
I'd classify him as a HOLD, things could get better
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Catch rate is a reflection of his route tree - he’s the designated deep threat. I don’t have data to support this but in watching every game under Cooter, I don’t feel like the Lions take a lot of deep shots.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
He's an easy drop, yeah.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
He needs an injury to Tate or a couple of injuries to other players to get better. Since his hot start last year, which also was with Tate's slow start. He has played in 16 games and here is what he has posted.
41 catches on 85 targets
576 yards
4 touchdowns
Unless he has a massive turn around in the next 12 weeks he is going to be cut, and I am not sure what other team will sign him to be anything more than a 3rd receiver. The Lions aren't going to pay him 8 million a season for numbers they could from a late draft pick. He just isn't that good.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Yep, he is a guy to keep on your bench who you can start if need be when others are on a bye. The Lions D is good, so Detroit won't be in many shootouts.
shadyridr
Footballguy
shadyridr
Footballguy
He has faced Peterson, Trufant, and Rhodes which is pretty incredible. I believe Jenkins was out the game they played the giants. That being said I don't think anything is wrong. I just don't think he's very good and he had one jour stretch in his career which made people think he was better than he actually was.
Megaton
Footballguy
16-team league, start 1-RB, 1-WR, three Flex. Most teams are starting 3WR's, some start 4WRs. He is not a good start option, a decent bye week option. He is probably about WR45-50 in the league whose upside is maybe WR30. Things that have hurt so far:
1. Lions commitment to run
2. Lions not playing from behind
3. Been covered by top cover guys in the league
One will not change much unless Abdullah gets hurt. Next four Lions games are tough, so I expect them to be behind in several if not all. Three will also improve for him as he has been blanketed by several shutdown corners thus far. He is not a great receiver but solid and has made several really nice catches this year. The 38 yarder this week was pretty sweet as Stafford rifled the ball over his head but he stretched out to snag it. Jones downfall is really not a talent thing as much as a usage. Lions use their TE's, RB's, and Slot guy for their short yardage stuff. Jones is their deep guy. Low volume high reward. I am not sure even an injury to Tate bumps him too much.
Last edited by a moderator:
Yes, it is true. But like Megatron mentioned, there have been some factors leading to the low fantasy numbers. It is just a matter of time before he blows up. The problem will be that it'll be mostly unpredictable. He's gotten 5, 6, and 5 targets the past 3 weeks against some good CBs. But also Stafford's attempts and YPA are down this year. He's the deep threat. If they need to air it out, Marvin will be the beneficiary. If you're in a league where you start 4 WR along with 2RB and 1TE, then he's been a fair WR4. He's WR43 by FBG scoring. Not great, but I think his end of year numbers will be better than that. I don't think Stafford is going to end the year with just 550 attempts and 6.5 ypa.
I hear he's not worth rostering... 
That catch tho
I think he had all his points while Tate was still healthy. He got a lot of targets late in the game but none of them amounted to anything. Sounds like Tate will miss at least a game or two. Marvin should see some heavy target volume during that time.
That catch tho
I think he had all his points while Tate was still healthy. He got a lot of targets late in the game but none of them amounted to anything. Sounds like Tate will miss at least a game or two. Marvin should see some heavy target volume during that time.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
You are going to gloat over an injury. Look back at my posts, I said he wouldn't be startable without multiple injuries to guys in the passing game or just an injury to Tate.I hear he's not worth rostering...
That catch tho
I think he had all his points while Tate was still healthy. He got a lot of targets late in the game but none of them amounted to anything. Sounds like Tate will miss at least a game or two. Marvin should see some heavy target volume during that time.
If you are going to take credit for that game then let's hope the Lions are down 35 earlier in the 3rd of every game.
I didn't know you said that, but regardless, Marvin scored all or most of his points while Tate was in the game
His targets after Tate left were all but useless. If I was going to gloat, it would be about that catch while he was being interfered with!The injury will boost Marvin for a game or two, but he had value while Tate was in the game, he'll have value when Tate returns in a couple weeks.
ETA: You know who benefits the most while the Lions are behind? Tate. Prevent defenses don't care about the short passes. They are designed to prevent guys like Marvin from getting behind them for the long score. Marvin will be more effective when the play action is actually believable, not when his team is down 3+ scores.
Last edited by a moderator:
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Because they were down 35 points.
That argument doesn't hold.
His targets have been trending up: 2, 5, 6, 5, 8, 14
PPR points: 11.7, 9.7, 5.4, 6.2, 11.4, 21.6
PPR ADP: WR44
So if you've been starting him as your WR4 (expanded roster leagues and/or injury replacement) you can't be too unhappy with those weekly results.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
msudaisy26
Footballguy
When Tate plays he pretty much stinks, he has a random good game. The stats back up my hunch, 16 games from last when Tate broke out of his funk to this year when Tate got injured. He had under 600 yards receiving. Congrats on your lotto ticket hitting, but you are dead wrong why it hit, you just got lucky with injuries.
You don't know what you're talking about. Marvin injured his quad and Stafford injured his hand last year. Check out Stafford's splits. His second half stats tanked, as did Marvin's. That's when Tate's picked up. There was no funk. Tate just started getting more dink and dunk passes after the injuries to Stafford and Marvin. Waldman covered it in one of his offseason articles.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Wrong, Tate got benched halfway through a game in week 4 of 2016 because he was running the wrong routes and it finally caused a pick 6. He wasn't good the next week against the Eagles, but in week 6 he took off. Stafford didn't hurt his hand until week 14 against the Bears. Would you like to try again?
Maybe you should tell Waldman to check his facts, or do some digging of your own.
Last edited by a moderator:
msudaisy26
Footballguy
That is crap, they run the most no huddle in the league and that was before they were down 35 this week.
NYRAGE
Footballguy
No huddle doesn't mean you run a fast pace, nor does it dictate your length of passes. It can prevent the defense from substituting though.
I was referring to last year where they were 27th out of 32. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/pacestats2016
For this year, they are 21st out of 32.
Jim Bob Cooter changed the offense. Read the part about his length of passes after the change. http://presnapreads.com/2016/11/03/matthew-staffords-mvp-season-that-never-was/
Anyway, I'm sure you already know about that crap.
You didn't address the quad injury and your call is still based on a "funk" by Tate. So let's just say Stafford had a "funk" in the second half of the season and voila, I've made a similar argument to yours. The fact remains, Marvin doesn't need an injury to Tate to be effective. Plus, their bye week is week 7, so Tate will have time to heal.
They play very different roles in this offense so I think they can not only coexist, but complement each other. What Marvin needs is for the Detroit OL to block long enough for him to get open, which has not happened this year. Stafford is getting beaten up back there.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I did address his funk. He was benched because of it. He was fine physically, I don't know what was going on in his head and most people don't.
So last year Marvin was bad because after 4 weeks because of a quad injury, this year it has been number 1 corners taking him out, and now they don't have enough time? How many excuses are you going to make for the guy? Sorry, but there are plenty of other guys without these perfect conditions that still play well and put up fantasy numbers.
A funk is a pretty vague thing. Maybe Marvin is in a funk? See how that works?
According to FBG, Marvin is currently WR22 (they use 0ppr). So even without OL blocking very well, he's doing just fine. So not sure what you're talking about needing perfect conditions.
Anyway, a quad injury can definitely impact the play of a speed guy. Not sure if you're disputing this. Last year doesn't really matter, though. This year, Marvin had a rough stretch of top CBs to start the season, but survived it due to TDs and is now seeing his targets trend up - even when Tate was healthy. So I don't see what's not to like out of a WR4 that apparently some people dropped.
