Matt Leinart will be undervalued in '07 :yes: (1 Viewer)

[SSOG]

It is amusing to see all the argument over who is the better QB between Leinart and VY when the best QB in that class was drafted behind them at #11.

too early to tellCutler has had what, one good year?

Cutler has two years over 7 yards per attempt. Leinart and Young combined have none.Despite the belief that QB has the longest learning curve, the OVERWHELMING majority of top QBs in the league are stars by their third season, or their second season as a starter, whichever comes first. Just look at the Pro Bowl lists, if you don't believe me.

Yeah, and Leinart is entering his 3rd year THIS YEAR. Look at the people that passed on Tom Brady the first two years. And then he broke out his 3rd. Other QB's who broke out in the 3rd year:Randall CunninghamSteve McNairJoe MontanaJohn ElwayBrees broke out in his 4th after being a starter for 2 years for the Chargersso Cutler is going to be better than Brees since Brees didn't have more than 7 yards per attempt until his 4th year? What a terrible stat to use as a comparison.

Did you even read my post? You know, the part where I said "third year, OR SECOND YEAR AS A STARTER, WHICHEVER COMES FIRST?" Leinart was a starter in '06. Leinart was a starter in '07. Looks like his second year as a starter came first.Also, I said the overwhelming majority, not all. There are exceptions. Current exceptions are Brees and Hasselbeck. Still, look at the top 10 QBs according to ADP this year- you've got Brady (SB in first year as a starter, 2nd year overall), Manning (3700 and 4000 yards in his first two seasons), Romo (Pro Bowler in his 3rd season, 1st as a starter), Drew Brees (the exception, as I've said), Carson Palmer (Pro Bowler in his 3rd season, second as a starter), Ben Roethlisberger (Winningest QB as a rookie, SB champion as a sophomore), Derek Anderson (Pro Bowler in his second year), Matt Hasselbeck (exception #2), Donovan McNabb (pro bowler in his second season), and Jay Cutler (already covered). That's an 80% success rate for the "3rd year/2nd year starter" rule. After that, you've got Bulger (pro bowler in his second season), Eli Manning (fantasy QB5 in his second season), David Garrard (off the page numbers in his first season as a starter, but technically an exception because he was a backup for so long), Jake Delhomme (QB6 in his second year as a starter, but another exception because he was a backup for so long), and Phillip Rivers (Pro Bowler in his first season as a starter). That's 11 QBs out of the top 15 (73%) who were productive within their first three years in the league, and 13 out of 15 who had star power by their second year as a starter (a whopping 87%). And some of these guys aren't great QBs, either- remember, QB15 is, by definition, pretty much league average.Now, you can throw all of the stats from the '80s and early '90s at me that you want, but things were different back then. There was no free agency, there was no salary cap. Great QBs spent longer on the bench, spent longer learning the ropes. Even still, half of the examples you gave me are bad examples- Montana was a pro bowler in his 3rd year, 2nd as a starter, and Cunningham was on pace for 3700 yards passing and 675 yards rushing in his first full season as a starter before he went down to injury.As for me saying that Cutler will be better than Brees or any such thing... don't put words in my mouth. I never said that a QB who shows something in his first 2/3 years will definitely be good. Plenty of QBs show a lot and then amount to nothing. I never said *HOW* good such a QB will be, either. I simply said that, if a QB hasn't shown something in his first 2 years as a starter, odds STRONGLY suggest that said QB isn't going to show anything. Period. You can keep throwing Drew Brees at me all you want, because that's really all you have to cling to. If I said that, if a team was down by 21 points with 4 minutes to go, odds were strongly against them winning, would you keep telling me about Indy's comeback vs. Tampa Bay in 2003, too? Of course not- just because there are exceptions doesn't mean that the basic premise is wrong.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

switch receiving cores and Matt would be worthless

Is this all jumping the gun a bit? Do people actually believe that Warner is going to outright take Leinart's job? I mean they have invested a ton in the kid - are they really just going to gie up on him? Coach says Leinart is still the starter - I see this as a buy low opportunity in keeper leagues. I figured he would be a top 10 QB this year and now you can get him for pennies on the dollar. Whats the thought out there

In two more years when they Fire Whis and Grimm, maybe his value will be ok.Whis has obviously screwed with his mechanics and head too much. You can just see lienart is thinking way too much out there

and Warner should be starting and will be by week 5

 

[Raider Nation]

SELL!

SELL!

SELL!

 

[PizzaDeliveryGuy]

He is truly awful.

 

[teamroc]

4 for 12 with 3 INTs.

you go boiiiii!

 

[PizzaDeliveryGuy]

He just needs a few more weapons.

 

[Raider Nation]

He'll be okay...

 

[teamroc]

He'll be okay...

Except the for the fact the one on the right looks like a man. Matt: Uh please tell me that's your big toe poking my leg.

 

[PizzaDeliveryGuy]

He'll be okay...

Except the for the fact the one on the right looks like a man. Matt: Uh please tell me that's your big toe poking my leg.

Those are some mighty fine man boobs.4

5

1

3

2

 

[slayer666]

 

[Liquid Tension]

With the VY hype in full effect(a la Michael Vick), and with Leinart playing for one of the least publicized organizations in pro football...his amazing rookie year is pretty much going unnoticed. You can pretty much bank on it that Leinart is going to be undervalued by the fantasy community. He'll probably be ranked in my #8 - #12 range for '07.Most publications/websites will erroneously have him ranked much lower than that....probably around the #19 spot.Here is your first value play for next year.

Bumping because LHUCKS insists on bumping the 10% of threads where he ends up being right.

I don't care who you think is right...this was funnyOh and Lienert is still not the best QB in Arizona.

 

[thecardiackid]

With the VY hype in full effect(a la Michael Vick), and with Leinart playing for one of the least publicized organizations in pro football...his amazing rookie year is pretty much going unnoticed. You can pretty much bank on it that Leinart is going to be undervalued by the fantasy community. He'll probably be ranked in my #8 - #12 range for '07.Most publications/websites will erroneously have him ranked much lower than that....probably around the #19 spot.Here is your first value play for next year.

Bumping because LHUCKS insists on bumping the 10% of threads where he ends up being right.

I don't care who you think is right...this was funnyOh and Lienert is still not the best QB in Arizona.

Looks like a heaping helping of crow (for now anyway) - mainly b/c he's been recently blasting Cutler (vs. STILL pimping Leinart). Even starting threads/polls to make the point.That said, it's still early. And it was only a bad pre-season game.Warner is looking like a NICE late round option as a QB2/3.

 

[Liquid Tension]

It is amusing to see all the argument over who is the better QB between Leinart and VY when the best QB in that class was drafted behind them at #11.

too early to tellCutler has had what, one good year?

Cutler has two years over 7 yards per attempt. Leinart and Young combined have none.Despite the belief that QB has the longest learning curve, the OVERWHELMING majority of top QBs in the league are stars by their third season, or their second season as a starter, whichever comes first. Just look at the Pro Bowl lists, if you don't believe me.

Yeah, and Leinart is entering his 3rd year THIS YEAR. Look at the people that passed on Tom Brady the first two years. And then he broke out his 3rd. Other QB's who broke out in the 3rd year:

Randall Cunningham

Steve McNair

Joe Montana

John Elway

Brees broke out in his 4th after being a starter for 2 years for the Chargers

so Cutler is going to be better than Brees since Brees didn't have more than 7 yards per attempt until his 4th year? What a terrible stat to use as a comparison.

Did you even read my post? You know, the part where I said "third year, OR SECOND YEAR AS A STARTER, WHICHEVER COMES FIRST?" Leinart was a starter in '06. Leinart was a starter in '07. Looks like his second year as a starter came first.Also, I said the overwhelming majority, not all. There are exceptions. Current exceptions are Brees and Hasselbeck. Still, look at the top 10 QBs according to ADP this year- you've got Brady (SB in first year as a starter, 2nd year overall), Manning (3700 and 4000 yards in his first two seasons), Romo (Pro Bowler in his 3rd season, 1st as a starter), Drew Brees (the exception, as I've said), Carson Palmer (Pro Bowler in his 3rd season, second as a starter), Ben Roethlisberger (Winningest QB as a rookie, SB champion as a sophomore), Derek Anderson (Pro Bowler in his second year), Matt Hasselbeck (exception #2), Donovan McNabb (pro bowler in his second season), and Jay Cutler (already covered). That's an 80% success rate for the "3rd year/2nd year starter" rule. After that, you've got Bulger (pro bowler in his second season), Eli Manning (fantasy QB5 in his second season), David Garrard (off the page numbers in his first season as a starter, but technically an exception because he was a backup for so long), Jake Delhomme (QB6 in his second year as a starter, but another exception because he was a backup for so long), and Phillip Rivers (Pro Bowler in his first season as a starter). That's 11 QBs out of the top 15 (73%) who were productive within their first three years in the league, and 13 out of 15 who had star power by their second year as a starter (a whopping 87%). And some of these guys aren't great QBs, either- remember, QB15 is, by definition, pretty much league average.

Now, you can throw all of the stats from the '80s and early '90s at me that you want, but things were different back then. There was no free agency, there was no salary cap. Great QBs spent longer on the bench, spent longer learning the ropes. Even still, half of the examples you gave me are bad examples- Montana was a pro bowler in his 3rd year, 2nd as a starter, and Cunningham was on pace for 3700 yards passing and 675 yards rushing in his first full season as a starter before he went down to injury.

As for me saying that Cutler will be better than Brees or any such thing... don't put words in my mouth. I never said that a QB who shows something in his first 2/3 years will definitely be good. Plenty of QBs show a lot and then amount to nothing. I never said *HOW* good such a QB will be, either. I simply said that, if a QB hasn't shown something in his first 2 years as a starter, odds STRONGLY suggest that said QB isn't going to show anything. Period. You can keep throwing Drew Brees at me all you want, because that's really all you have to cling to. If I said that, if a team was down by 21 points with 4 minutes to go, odds were strongly against them winning, would you keep telling me about Indy's comeback vs. Tampa Bay in 2003, too? Of course not- just because there are exceptions doesn't mean that the basic premise is wrong.

Nice example too

 

[Liquid Tension]

With the VY hype in full effect(a la Michael Vick), and with Leinart playing for one of the least publicized organizations in pro football...his amazing rookie year is pretty much going unnoticed. You can pretty much bank on it that Leinart is going to be undervalued by the fantasy community. He'll probably be ranked in my #8 - #12 range for '07.Most publications/websites will erroneously have him ranked much lower than that....probably around the #19 spot.Here is your first value play for next year.

Bumping because LHUCKS insists on bumping the 10% of threads where he ends up being right.

I don't care who you think is right...this was funnyOh and Lienert is still not the best QB in Arizona.

Looks like a heaping helping of crow (for now anyway) - mainly b/c he's been recently blasting Cutler (vs. STILL pimping Leinart). Even starting threads/polls to make the point.That said, it's still early. And it was only a bad pre-season game.Warner is looking like a NICE late round option as a QB2/3.

A week ago I picked up Warner in the 2nd to last round for this exact reason. Coaches want to win and the better QB will play eventually

 

[Wildman]

Leinart was never accurate going down the field in college. Matt Waldman did a throw by throw break down of his issues for anyone who ponied up for the Wildman portfolio. We discussed it in more detail in a draft blog that year. I detailed Matt's deep ball issues from several games during his senior season. Even at an orchestrated and choreographed pro day Matt refused to throw the deep out, something he never completed ONCE in college (truth, Carroll knew he couldn't throw it and it wasn't even in the playbook), and he missed over half of his deep balls at that pro day. He is very good with throws 10-20 yards from his feet, but that's about it. Hitting small windows much further than that is not common for him. It isn't the much advertised arm strength issue at all. He has plenty of arm for the NFL. His problem is accuracy.In contrast Young and Cutler were nearly perfect with the choreography and both nailed deep outs for the scouts. There isn't ONE aspect of the game of football that Leinart does better than Cutler or Young (or Ben for that matter). He is not a better leader, he is a bit of a loner attached to his night life posse more than his team (Vick was like this, btw). He is not a better student and has been called out for it. He does not read defenses better and checks down in too much of a hurry. He does not throw the ball better. He is not a better runner. he does not make bigger plays. He does not command the respect of his teammates like those three. Colin, I think you were on a little hiatus from these parts but Wood and I (as primaries), with many others, had one heck of a long debate between Cutler and Leinart as they were coming out, and we were debating them as passers among other things. I favored Cutler based on what I saw, and I broke it down in time consuming very long detailed posts about both of their play. Several people agreed with me including JBryant who had a nice view of Cutler there in Tennessee. It wasn't so cut and dry, and for all the painstaking effort I put into that debate, I do feel a little vindicated these days. We still have a way to go though. Wood and I ended the debate in PMs with an agreement we couldn't be sure for ten years.

It hasn't been 10 years, but it's not looking too good in year three.

 

[thehornet]

undervaued/overvalued? as of right now. no value. And to think there is a poll in the pool comparing him to cutler. :funny:

 

[brednbuddah]

from undervalued to no value...

Warner_to_start

 

[munchkin]

This is great news for Leinart and his owners. It's not a matter of whether Matt has talent or not it's a matter of him wanting it. It certainly does not look like he gets it; his mental lapses are killing his productivity. Warner will get hurt at some point this season and Leinart will get another chance to prove his mettle; it will likely be his last chance, with this team anyway.

 

[Tong Po]

This is great news for Leinart and his owners. It's not a matter of whether Matt has talent or not it's a matter of him wanting it. It certainly does not look like he gets it; his mental lapses are killing his productivity. Warner will get hurt at some point this season and Leinart will get another chance to prove his mettle; it will likely be his last chance, with this team anyway.

 

[munchkin]

This is great news for Leinart and his owners. It's not a matter of whether Matt has talent or not it's a matter of him wanting it. It certainly does not look like he gets it; his mental lapses are killing his productivity. Warner will get hurt at some point this season and Leinart will get another chance to prove his mettle; it will likely be his last chance, with this team anyway.

You shouldn't be if you own him in a dynasty league. He has not lived up to the hype that followed him out of college. At least now we will know whether to fish or cut bait with the guy. I don' know everything about Leinart's career but this may be that first time he has had to fight back from adversity; hopefully this will make him a better QB. His silver platter is now full of Humble Pie, let's see if he deals with that.