Question: What are the odds that a QB drafted in the first round turns out to be a Pro Bowl QB? I have no clue, but I'd say that just as many turn out to be total busts.My point: Rivers has proven nothing yet. Brees has proven that he can succeed. The Bengals made the same exact mistake this year....I hope the Chargers don't.
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Maybe San Diego wasn't so stupid (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ministry of Pain
- Start date
Gr00vus
Footballguy
You're joking right? They're a combined 24-20. And I don't think the talent involved at this point indicates they're much better than that. There are a few good teams in the NFL, there are plenty of mediocre ones, and a few bad ones. The ones you listed are mediocre teams - none of them has a shot at winning the Super Bowl. An upper echelon team is one that does have a shot at winning the Super Bowl, the Chargers have not played anyone like that yet, and unless you think the Colts, Broncos or Chiefs are better than they appear right now, it doesn't look like they will.The good news is it looks like the Chargers' schedule is even easier for the second half of the season.
cstu
Footballguy
I'll assume that you haven't watched Brees play that much for you to make the statements you are making about him. He's been well playing well on a team with a lot going for it - including the best RB in the league. I'm not sure you understand talent that much if you think Brees > Rivers and Pinner > Jones.
Interesting article that looks at the ratio of hits to misses among top 10 picks at different positions: link.Summary: Offensive tackles tend to have the fewest busts, and wide receivers the most. Quarterbacks are actually relatively safe picks: while there are some busts, they are not as common as you might think.
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The NFL did away with the "last place scheduling" with the new 32-team format.They play the same teams as the rest of the AFC West with the exception of 2 games, which is based on last years final standings:SD - CLE, NYJDEN- CIN, MIAOAK- PIT, BUFKC - BAL, NETo say that SD's schedule is easy because they finished last place last year is not fair or accurate. There looks to be no difference in schedule strength among the 4 except for KC.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I don't think it's just an "arm strength" argument, but rather the ability to effectively throw the deep ball and stetch the defense when required to do so(for instance when playing from behind - something Brees is DREADFUL at). While arm strength is without a doubt a large component of that it certainly isn't the only one. For instance Dan Fouts wasn't known for throwing bullets but he was still very effective throwing the deep ball because of precise passing deep down field. Pennington and Brady are similar imo. They don't throw especially hard but they do throw precise down field. I don't think Brees has that ability and it doesn't get exposed when he's playing with a lead. He's thrown a few good balls this year but over his run in SD he has really had problems over all even when his WR's are able to get open deep. Nearly all of Brees's long completions have been of the catch-and-long-run variety. BTW I think Green/Hasselbeck both have better armstrength than Brees and throw a better deep ball. Their decision making may not be as good, but their arms are better.
Stats can be misleading. All that matters is how a defense is playing at the time you play them. I'll comment on the Texans, since that is the team I follow and I go to the games. Their defense was pretty shabby the first couple games. The next couple, it started to come together. Starting with the second half of the Minnesota game, the Texans defense has shut people down. Here's a stat for you from the radio, since we're looking at stats. The last 17 times the defense has taken the field, they've prevented a score of any sort 15 times. Also, they've allowed 14 passing TDs. 8 of those came in the first 3 games, and 5 came from Culpepper in week 5, who seems to routinely throw 5 TD passes a game this year. In order to gauge a QB's performance versus a defense, you have to note current trends. Brees faced the Texans at an opportune time. The Texans defense he faced is not the same unit that is gelling now. I can't comment much on the other teams, as I don't follow them too closely, but offhand, it seems that Atlanta has performed that poorly on defense all year, yardage-wise (which is how you've reported), but they've prevented scoring by forcing turnovers.
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Foosball God
Foos
You needed a thread from 2004 to make you realize it?
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
way to blow the dust off this thread.
DanFouts
Footballguy
Let me restate....I didn't realize that some people thought/think Vick > LT.....guess it's not really a debate anymore...
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bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
that is pretty
trader jake
Footballguy
There is a reason the 
was formerly known as :jaa:
was formerly known as :jaa:
DanFouts
Footballguy
Great find!
phthalatemagic
Footballguy
Maybe Norv Turner should be a scout then, becuase he definitely shouldn't be a head coach.
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
Vick and the Falcons since 2001: 2-2 in the playoffs
LT and the Chargers since 2001: 0-2 in the playoffs
Great as LT is so far the Falcons still have the better of the trade in my view. Of course this could all change immediately if Vick winds up in Leavenworth and the Chargers can finally win when it counts with Chokingheimer gone.
LT and the Chargers since 2001: 0-2 in the playoffs
Great as LT is so far the Falcons still have the better of the trade in my view. Of course this could all change immediately if Vick winds up in Leavenworth and the Chargers can finally win when it counts with Chokingheimer gone.
mad sweeney
Footballguy
Depends on how you describe "winner" in the deal. How many MVPs are involved here? Advantage SD. And quite frankly Vick had very little to do with their playoff win in GB. LT is being compared to the greatest of players in the history of the league and is known as a class act. Zero runins with the law, zero STDs transmitted, zero fans flipped off. And I would wager that his jersey sales top Vick's. LT's been the man of the league for years and will be for more to come whereas Vick has always been known as a freakish talent that just never could get it together enough to effectively lead his team, nor can he bring up his passing game. I bet LT's passer rating dwarfs Vicks too. Even before the kennel incident, if you polled every GM in the league who they'd rather build their team around, you'd get about 100% picking LT. So SD got the best player of this generation, plus a few other guys in the mix that served the team well for the time they were in SD. And Atlanta got Vick. I just can't see how Atlanta wins.
Jayrod
Footballguy
AFC vs. NFCIn recent years, just making the playoffs in the AFC is a greater feat than winning a game in the NFC playoffs.
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
You would be wagering wrong.I don't think that's been the case any season. I read your whole post but that statement has to do with what I want to focus on the most. Vick's jersey has outsold Tomlinson's Jersey every season. Who do you seriously think has made more money for their team and their city. Michael Vick or LaDainian Tomlinson? You already know the answer to that question. The people in Atlanta love Vick as well as the NFL for the excitement and entertainment that his running ability brings on the field. So looking at the business side of things there's no question Atlanta made out better in the trade. Great as LT has been he's still just a running back so he can never be as popular (or notorious) as the quarterback in Michael Vick. Otherwise why would the NFL talk about moving the Chargers every chance they get?On the field now. I won't argue that LT is a better player than Vick but you have to look at the big picture. LT's won an MVP. That's great. If he never wins in the playoffs not many people outside of here are going to remember that? Michael Vick along with the Falcons have taken teams to the playoffs and won in the playoffs including on the road. LT as of yet has not. I'll admit that probably has a lot to do with Chokingheimer. Maybe Norv Turner will help with that but for now LT is really little more than a Barry Sanders type player. As for Vick not having much to do with that victory in Green Bay well you and I must have been watching a different game.
So in summary I'll reiterate what I said in my first post. As of right now, Michael Vick and the Falcons have won more post season games than LaDainian Tomlinson and the Chargers (who've won none). To his credit though LT has won an MVP award and the Chargers have won a couple of division titles so that should count for something. Looking at the results on the field I'd say that overall the trade is about equal.
Off the field in terms of business and dollars and cents though it's no contest which franchise is better off between the Falcons and the Chargers. The quarterback will always be the bigger star than the running back. That plus the Falcons success on the field I think slightly tips the scales of trade favorably to Atlanta's side. Recent events however have the chance to change everything. Or will it? What to say that Michael Vick celebrity and subsequent notoriety doesn't make even more money for the Falcons? As they say no publicity is bad publicity not the other way around.
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Banger
Footballguy
LT got nearly 200 yards and 2 td's against a very good NE team in the playoffs last year. The fact that they didn't win the game wasn't his fault. This kind of reminds me of the Manning arguments in the past. Basing a players value on THE TEAMS playoff success is irrelevant/meaningless IMO.
Tau837
Footballguy
I could not disagree more with the notion that Atlanta has been a bigger winner with Vick than San Diego with LT. You are probably right that Vick has drawn more dollars to the Falcons than LT has to the Chargers. But that's not how I would personally rank the "winning" franchise in this situation.
Since LT arrived, the Chargers have evolved into one of the top teams in the NFL. Taking him instead of Vick was an instrumental part of that, not only because of his performance but also what it enabled them to do at the other positions... for example, they were able to draft Brees and later fleece the Giants in the Eli trade. Meanwhile, the Falcons looked promising as a possible contender for one year with Vick - 2002 - and have not been close to contending since.
And as of today, the Falcons franchise is on the brink of being one of the worst in the league, thanks to Vick's own conduct... while LT is known as a class player. There is a good chance that the dollars gap you referenced will be closed when LT plays on for a few years while Vick is in prison.
I feel confident that, knowing what is known today, the Falcons would rather have taken LT at this point.
Since LT arrived, the Chargers have evolved into one of the top teams in the NFL. Taking him instead of Vick was an instrumental part of that, not only because of his performance but also what it enabled them to do at the other positions... for example, they were able to draft Brees and later fleece the Giants in the Eli trade. Meanwhile, the Falcons looked promising as a possible contender for one year with Vick - 2002 - and have not been close to contending since.
And as of today, the Falcons franchise is on the brink of being one of the worst in the league, thanks to Vick's own conduct... while LT is known as a class player. There is a good chance that the dollars gap you referenced will be closed when LT plays on for a few years while Vick is in prison.
I feel confident that, knowing what is known today, the Falcons would rather have taken LT at this point.
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
The Chargers are one of the top teams in the NFL? On paper maybe. That's all they've been so far. Paper Champions. They dominate in the regular season only to lose in the first round of the playoffs. Maybe that was Chokingheimer. Maybe not. Will Norv Turner make that much difference and take the Chargers to the promised land? We'll see. Until then they're nothing more than paper champions and I have to include LT among them.It's nice that LT played hard and all of that in the playoffs but when people talk about the Chargers first round playoff games this decade they won't be talking about Tomlinson. It'll be about how the Chargers choked those games away as the favorites to win and couldn't get it done when it really matters. Fair or unfair that's just the way it is and you know it.Just Win Baby said:
Michael Vick and the Falcons have actually won in the playoffs in this century. Vick took the Falcons to the second round of the playoffs in 02 including winning in Lambeau Field and getting to the NFC title game in 04. The Chargers haven't even won a playoff game yet. Until that happens I still think that the Falcons got the better of the Chargers in the LT for Vick trade. Off the field it's no contest and on the field it clear who's had more overall success from 2001-2006.
If Vick goes to prison and the Chargers finally win in the playoffs then it can be considered at least on the field a better trade for the Chargers. In terms of business no way, not even close.
Chunky Soup
Footballguy
On the financial end of things, if Vick is such a sound business investment, why were the Falcons ranked 31st out of 32 teams in terms of profitability during Vick's heyday in 2004? LinkWhy in 2006, are the Falcons ranked 31st out of 32 in terms of most valuable franchises? Link Although to be fair, the Chargers are only 1 notch above. However, they make 4x as much in operating income every year.The Man with the Plan said:
How many Ron Mexico jersey's need to be sold to pay Vick's $130M contract, the most expensive in the NFL?
Banger
Footballguy
So if LT rushes 25 times for 10 yards and has 3 fumbles in a playoff game and his team wins it would turn the tide and make it a more even trade because the Chargers would be 1-2 in the playoffs? Makes perfect sense and is good sound logic.
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Monsters of the Midway
Footballguy
So if LT rushes 25 times for 10 yards and has 3 fumbles in a playoff game and his team wins it would turn the tide and make it a more even trade because the Chargers would be 1-2 in the playoffs? Makes perfect sense and is good sound logic.
I've always hated the "Team A won more than Team B so Team A's player is therefore better than Team B's player." To me it completely defies logic.I think that TheManWithThePlan is playing devil's advocate here.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
How many more playoff wins would the Falcons have if they had had Tomlinson instead of Vick since 2001? Remember that they play in the much weaker NFC.The Man with the Plan said:
jurb26
Footballguy
Uh, hello McFly, May 1st 2004 would be BEFORE Vick's 2004 season. So he didn't magically effect the past when he started in 2004. What a bum.And it's a little more complex then "Hey look LT makes the Chargers 4x the operating income! Vick doesn't make the Falcons jack!".
JAA
Footballguy
your crazy if you disagree
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
It will be interesting to see if LT jersey sales compared to Vicks jersey sales this year. And if Vick does go to jail or get cut the Falcons franchise will be in trouble for the next couple of years. Not worth the Marketability Vick once had IMO......because he NOW has zero Marketability.and it is ok to be wrong about a player JAAyour crazy if you disagree
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JAA
Footballguy
I dont care about Vick as a player. Fact of the matter is I hate the entire Vick family. However, he has done more for the Falcons that 5 LT2's. LT didnt even make the pro-bowl some years ago when he had 1800 yards. LT2 is a class act and I like him a lot. However, that has nothing to do with the amount of money Vick has made for Blank and the city of Atl compared to how much money LT2 has made for SD and its regime.It will be interesting to see if LT jersey sales compared to Vicks jersey sales this year. And if Vick does go to jail or get cut the Falcons franchise will be in trouble for the next couple of years. Not worth the Marketability Vick once had IMO......because he NOW has zero Marketability.and it is ok to be wrong about a player JAAyour crazy if you disagree
I specifically chose 2004 because it was before he signed his $130M contract (signed in December of that same year) when the cost of owning him ballooned. If Vick was such a financial boon to the Falcons, why were they one of the poorest (and lowest valued) franchises in football (and still are?) You can't have it both ways, he may make a lot of money for the Falcons, but he costs a #$%load too.It gets worse if he is suspended for the year, because the team is still on the hook for his 2007 salary (goes to charity.)
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
Honestly, yeah. If he plays like that and the Chargers can still win a playoff game and acutally make some noise in the postseason then I think that certainly helps. He must have done something right if the team still wins with him playing like that. It's about the bottom line man. Even LT will tell you that he could have played better in the playoffs.Take Peyton Manning for example. If you look at his stats in the 06 playoffs they're far from spectacular but anybody who knows football will tell you that he played his best by far in those handful of games. He showed more mobility and was smart to rely on the running game a little more. Peyton Manning is regarded differently then he was a year ago.
Right now LT is like Barry Sanders he's a great player on a team that doesn't win. The Chargers look like a team that should be winning in the playoffs but perception and reality are two different things in this case. LaDainian Tomlinson is a better player than Michael Vick. At no time in this thread have I said otherwise. But one only has to look at the past 6 seasons on and off the field for the two franchises to show as to which team got the better of the trade of spring 2001.
If the Falcons have been more successful in recent years than the Chargers, and therefore Vick was a better pick than Tomlinson in 2001, does that also mean that TJ Duckett was a better pick than Quentin Jammer the following year for all the same reasons?
I dispute that the Falcons have been more successful, but even if they have, that doesn't mean you can look at every particular move they've made and say that it was because of that move rather than in spite of it.
If Tomlinson is a better player than Vick, which you seem to accept, then if the Falcons are better than the Chargers it's not because they ended up with Vick instead of Tomlinson. It's in spite of that. The Vick-for-Tomlinson trade in and of itself seems to have benefited the Chargers, IMO.
I dispute that the Falcons have been more successful, but even if they have, that doesn't mean you can look at every particular move they've made and say that it was because of that move rather than in spite of it.
If Tomlinson is a better player than Vick, which you seem to accept, then if the Falcons are better than the Chargers it's not because they ended up with Vick instead of Tomlinson. It's in spite of that. The Vick-for-Tomlinson trade in and of itself seems to have benefited the Chargers, IMO.
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Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
Name three or more teams that have won more games in the past three years than the Chargers have.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
JAA said:I dont care about Vick as a player. Fact of the matter is I hate the entire Vick family. However, he has done more for the Falcons that 5 LT2's. LT didnt even make the pro-bowl some years ago when he had 1800 yards. LT2 is a class act and I like him a lot. However, that has nothing to do with the amount of money Vick has made for Blank and the city of Atl compared to how much money LT2 has made for SD and its regime.The Scientist said:It will be interesting to see if LT jersey sales compared to Vicks jersey sales this year. And if Vick does go to jail or get cut the Falcons franchise will be in trouble for the next couple of years. Not worth the Marketability Vick once had IMO......because he NOW has zero Marketability.and it is ok to be wrong about a player JAAJAA said:your crazy if you disagree
trader jake
Footballguy
When judging a trade from previous years ask yourself this: If these teams knew what we know today would they still make the deal? If you think the Falcons would still make the Vick deal you're fooling yourself.
Advantage Chargers...and that edge is only going to widen over the next few seasons.
Advantage Chargers...and that edge is only going to widen over the next few seasons.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
You mean when Vick is in jail and LT2 is in the HOF
JAA
Footballguy
I dont completely disagree, though I dont think it is as night and day as this post makes it out to be. Vick has been the face of the NFL for about the past 5 seasons. He has made lots of folks lots of money. LT2 will never be the money make Vick is. I think you would be surprised at the number of people who would take Vick and some dead dogs over LT2.
