Otis
Footballguy
I feel like I just jumped out of Doc Brown's Delorean. Seriously, where the hell am I?
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MBIII vs. MBT (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Otis
- Start date
My thinking is that both Turner and Barber have looked like absolute studs when given an opportunity. Turner averaged an amazing 6.3 yards per carry last year, but I think Marion Barber's 4.8 is every bit as impressive for a variety of reasons. First, Barber had MORE carries, and the more carries you get, the harder it is to keep your average up. Second, Marion Barber's carries mostly came in short-yardage situations against overstacked defenses. Third, and most importantly, Marion Barber had 16 TDs, which limits how many yards you can get (obviously if you get the ball 12 times on the 1 yard line, and gain 12 yards, you just had the greatest game in history despite only averaging 1 yard per carry). Barber had 25 rushes inside the opponent's 5 yard line. On his other 110 carries, he averaged 5.66 yards per carry (SSOG, what's your thinking here? I was a big MB3 fan from the outset, he hasn't been able to wrestle away the starting job from Julius Jones, who in my opinion has under performed the past two years. Watching both JJ & MB3 the other night against INDY ai think they bot are very average. There's no denying Barber's 16 TD's from a year ago, but I think he'd be lucky to hit 10 this season, or any season from this point on. Now, Turner has shown flashes in his limited action the past few years. I think what separates him from MB3 is that he should be the uncontested starter somewhere next year where as I believe MB3 will still be splitting time with JJ in '08 and possibly beyond. As far as disclosure goes, I own MB3 on two Dynasties and I do not own Turner on any team. I've been trying to trade MB3 in both leagues since February and I haven't even gotten a nibble, almost zero interest in him.Not according to the staff (or to me, for that matter).
). Barber had 45 carries with 3 or fewer yards to go. On his other 90 rushes, he averaged 5.88 yards per carry ( 
). And all of this came despite the fact that Barber is playing behind an inferior offensive line, despite the fact that Barber had more carries, and despite the fact that opposing defenses are gearing up more to stop Barber than they are to stop Turner (when Barber's in the game, opposing defenses are expecting the run because the Cowboys just put in their best RB, whereas when Turner's in the game, opposing defenses are expecting the pass because the Chargers just took out their best RB). Now, this isn't an attempt to trivialize how well Michael Turner has performed in limited action, it's just to point out that Marion Barber has performed EVERY BIT AS WELL (if not better) in limited action, and he's done it in circumstances that are less conducive to success (worse line, more defensive attention, more carries).So, as far as talent goes, I'm leaning towards calling it a wash. Yes, Turner's probably got better measurable and looks phenomenal on the field, but when it comes to producing with the ball in their hands, they've both done just as much as the other. After that, it's a question of situation. Who is in the better situation for this season? That's clearly, clearly BarberIII. Who is in the better situation for the future? Well, that's a tricky one. There are a lot of possibilities. Both Barber and Turner are free agents. It's possible they both resign, in which case Barber's in the better situation. It's possible they both become free agents, in which case it's a wash, since they both have a 50% chance of being in the better situation and a 50% chance of being in a worse situation. It's possible that Turner stays while Barber changes teams, in which case Barber is in a better situation. It's possible that Turner changes teams while Barber stays, in which case things get even more complicated. If Julius Jones leaves and Turner changes teams, then I'd think Barber is in the better situation (since Dallas is, in my opinion, one of the best situations in the league, and it'd be hard for Turner to do better). If Julius Jones stays and Turner changes teams, then Turner's probably in the better situation.So, in all of that analysis, the only way I think that Turner's situation is BETTER than Barber's next year (as opposed to worse or even) is if Barber and Jones both stay put while Turner moves. Since I consider that situation highly unlikely, I think it's highly unlikely that Turner will be in a better situation next year.After that, it's simple.MBIII's talent = Turner's talentMBIII's situation this year > Turner's situation this yearMBIII's situation next year > Turner's situation next yearMBIII > Turner in dynasty.The biggest knock on Marion Barber III is the perception that he's unable to carry the load... which is a funny criticism when Michael Turner has never had more than 80 carries in a season while Barber III has twice had 135+.Edit: Even if you still think Turner is the better back in Dynasty, hopefully by now you realize that the phrase "in a landslide" is sensationalism, and in this case, not really warranted.
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Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
SSOG I love reading your posts as they are always detailed and filled with stats and facts as opposed to strictly opininons (although I do value your opinions in correaltion with your stat work).
The one problem I had is when comparing Barber to Turner's ypc averages you stated that defenses knew Barber was getting the ball more than Turner. I don't think this is neccessairly true but don't have the stats to back it up. If I was guessing, I would think defenses would see Turner (a fresh back coming in) and knew he would be getting touches. Also, there is a good chance with Tomlinson out taking a break (one of the best recieving backs to play the game) that Turner didin't warrant much consideration in the passing game with only 7 receptions in 3 years with only 3 of those coming last season.
Barber is a very good pass blocking RB and teams know this as he is in on most 3rd downs and many passing plays due to his good pass blocking. This would give Barber an edge on draw plays and catching the defenses off guard. Once again I don't have the stats to back it up but I don't think you can make the point that teams knew more for one guy or the other.
The one problem I had is when comparing Barber to Turner's ypc averages you stated that defenses knew Barber was getting the ball more than Turner. I don't think this is neccessairly true but don't have the stats to back it up. If I was guessing, I would think defenses would see Turner (a fresh back coming in) and knew he would be getting touches. Also, there is a good chance with Tomlinson out taking a break (one of the best recieving backs to play the game) that Turner didin't warrant much consideration in the passing game with only 7 receptions in 3 years with only 3 of those coming last season.
Barber is a very good pass blocking RB and teams know this as he is in on most 3rd downs and many passing plays due to his good pass blocking. This would give Barber an edge on draw plays and catching the defenses off guard. Once again I don't have the stats to back it up but I don't think you can make the point that teams knew more for one guy or the other.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Excellent posting here. I came in thinking Turner > Barber, but some great points raised here.My thinking is that both Turner and Barber have looked like absolute studs when given an opportunity. Turner averaged an amazing 6.3 yards per carry last year, but I think Marion Barber's 4.8 is every bit as impressive for a variety of reasons. First, Barber had MORE carries, and the more carries you get, the harder it is to keep your average up. Second, Marion Barber's carries mostly came in short-yardage situations against overstacked defenses. Third, and most importantly, Marion Barber had 16 TDs, which limits how many yards you can get (obviously if you get the ball 12 times on the 1 yard line, and gain 12 yards, you just had the greatest game in history despite only averaging 1 yard per carry). Barber had 25 rushes inside the opponent's 5 yard line. On his other 110 carries, he averaged 5.66 yards per carry (SSOG, what's your thinking here? I was a big MB3 fan from the outset, he hasn't been able to wrestle away the starting job from Julius Jones, who in my opinion has under performed the past two years. Watching both JJ & MB3 the other night against INDY ai think they bot are very average. There's no denying Barber's 16 TD's from a year ago, but I think he'd be lucky to hit 10 this season, or any season from this point on. Now, Turner has shown flashes in his limited action the past few years. I think what separates him from MB3 is that he should be the uncontested starter somewhere next year where as I believe MB3 will still be splitting time with JJ in '08 and possibly beyond. As far as disclosure goes, I own MB3 on two Dynasties and I do not own Turner on any team. I've been trying to trade MB3 in both leagues since February and I haven't even gotten a nibble, almost zero interest in him.Not according to the staff (or to me, for that matter).
). Barber had 45 carries with 3 or fewer yards to go. On his other 90 rushes, he averaged 5.88 yards per carry (
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
This is an absurd claim. Last year, when "leading big," Turner was 41-266-2TD. That's 6.5 ypc and it represents about half of his carries. Don't pretend that the defense didn't know he was coming. In fact, it's quite the opposite. Please realize that the phrase "opposing defenses are expecting the pass because they just took out their best RB" is sensationalism, and in this case, not really warranted. And while Barber's ypc is dragged down by his goal line carries, it is also benefited by his being the 3rd down back (8.4 ypc last year on 3rd and long), which Turner is not.My thinking is that both Turner and Barber have looked like absolute studs when given an opportunity. Turner averaged an amazing 6.3 yards per carry last year, but I think Marion Barber's 4.8 is every bit as impressive for a variety of reasons. First, Barber had MORE carries, and the more carries you get, the harder it is to keep your average up. Second, Marion Barber's carries mostly came in short-yardage situations against overstacked defenses. Third, and most importantly, Marion Barber had 16 TDs, which limits how many yards you can get (obviously if you get the ball 12 times on the 1 yard line, and gain 12 yards, you just had the greatest game in history despite only averaging 1 yard per carry). Barber had 25 rushes inside the opponent's 5 yard line. On his other 110 carries, he averaged 5.66 yards per carry (SSOG, what's your thinking here? I was a big MB3 fan from the outset, he hasn't been able to wrestle away the starting job from Julius Jones, who in my opinion has under performed the past two years. Watching both JJ & MB3 the other night against INDY ai think they bot are very average. There's no denying Barber's 16 TD's from a year ago, but I think he'd be lucky to hit 10 this season, or any season from this point on. Now, Turner has shown flashes in his limited action the past few years. I think what separates him from MB3 is that he should be the uncontested starter somewhere next year where as I believe MB3 will still be splitting time with JJ in '08 and possibly beyond.Not according to the staff (or to me, for that matter).
As far as disclosure goes, I own MB3 on two Dynasties and I do not own Turner on any team. I've been trying to trade MB3 in both leagues since February and I haven't even gotten a nibble, almost zero interest in him.). Barber had 45 carries with 3 or fewer yards to go. On his other 90 rushes, he averaged 5.88 yards per carry (
So, in all of that analysis, the only way I think that Turner's situation is BETTER than Barber's next year (as opposed to worse or even) is if Barber and Jones both stay put while Turner moves. Since I consider that situation highly unlikely, I think it's highly unlikely that Turner will be in a better situation next year.
After that, it's simple.
MBIII's talent = Turner's talent
MBIII's situation this year > Turner's situation this year
MBIII's situation next year > Turner's situation next year
MBIII > Turner in dynasty.
The biggest knock on Marion Barber III is the perception that he's unable to carry the load... which is a funny criticism when Michael Turner has never had more than 80 carries in a season while Barber III has twice had 135+.
Edit: Even if you still think Turner is the better back in Dynasty, hopefully by now you realize that the phrase "in a landslide" is sensationalism, and in this case, not really warranted.
I like Barber, and I think that his dynasty value is probably underrated for some of the reasons that you listed above, but I still think Turner is a superior talent and that his ceiling is much higher. Barber smells like an RBBC guy wherever he ends up. Turner will be a feature back. Barber is the kind of guy that gets you 4th place in your league. Turner will help you win it.
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Again, I wasn't attempting to trivialize what Turner did last year. Turner was amazing, mind-boggling, absurd. According to Football Outsiders, Michael Turner was the best RB on a per-play basis in the entire NFL. Of course, according to Football Outsiders, Marion Barber III was #2. MBIII's success rate (56%) was 4th in the league, while Turner's (55%) was 5th. When you consider that Dallas's line < San Diego's line, I think that both RBs had absolutely amazing seasons... but both RBs had *EQUALLY* amazing seasons.Also, I know you were just trying to be cute, but saying that "opposing defenses are expecting the pass because they just took out their best RB" isn't sensationalism. There's no exaggeration involved, unless you think I'm exaggerating when I say that Tomlinson is a better RB than Michael Turner (a point I'd be more than happy to argue). Now, I may very well be WRONG, and you're welcome to pull up some stats or evidence to argue with it (in fact, I'm very amenable to the idea that I'm wrong, since I'm mostly just speaking out of common sense and a hunch than out of any hard data), but the only qualitative analysis in that statement was that Tomlinson was better than Turner, so that was the only statement that I could have exaggerated. And barring exaggeration, there's no sensationalism.
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
You're right, it's not sensationalism. It's just wrong. Feel better?If you use the same stat you're using from FO, MBIII was #34 in 2005. Turner didn't get enough carries to get ranked, but there was not a single player with more carries with a higher DVOA.
If you're going to reply, try to do it in less than 500 words. Reading your posts is exhausting.
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gianmarco
Footballguy
My thinking is that both Turner and Barber have looked like absolute studs when given an opportunity. Turner averaged an amazing 6.3 yards per carry last year, but I think Marion Barber's 4.8 is every bit as impressive for a variety of reasons. First, Barber had MORE carries, and the more carries you get, the harder it is to keep your average up. Second, Marion Barber's carries mostly came in short-yardage situations against overstacked defenses. Third, and most importantly, Marion Barber had 16 TDs, which limits how many yards you can get (obviously if you get the ball 12 times on the 1 yard line, and gain 12 yards, you just had the greatest game in history despite only averaging 1 yard per carry). Barber had 25 rushes inside the opponent's 5 yard line. On his other 110 carries, he averaged 5.66 yards per carry (SSOG, what's your thinking here? I was a big MB3 fan from the outset, he hasn't been able to wrestle away the starting job from Julius Jones, who in my opinion has under performed the past two years. Watching both JJ & MB3 the other night against INDY ai think they bot are very average. There's no denying Barber's 16 TD's from a year ago, but I think he'd be lucky to hit 10 this season, or any season from this point on. Now, Turner has shown flashes in his limited action the past few years. I think what separates him from MB3 is that he should be the uncontested starter somewhere next year where as I believe MB3 will still be splitting time with JJ in '08 and possibly beyond. As far as disclosure goes, I own MB3 on two Dynasties and I do not own Turner on any team. I've been trying to trade MB3 in both leagues since February and I haven't even gotten a nibble, almost zero interest in him.Not according to the staff (or to me, for that matter).
For some reason, Turner doesn't give me a good feeling of certainty. Maybe it's the fact that we have no idea where he'll end up or maybe it's the fact that we've really mostly seen him in very limited time and usually in garbage time. I mean, after LT has run for over 150 yds on a defense in 3 qtrs of work and the game is out of hand (which is usually when Turner got in), how effective/motivated is the defense going to be to stop Turner in the 4th qtr? If I were going to use an earlier dynasty pick, I'd rather use it on MBIII who at least has some value now and should have good value in the future. I think too many are assuming that Turner is going to land a featured role somewhere and completely thrive. I can't think of a similar situation to his and I don't really understand how he's garnered so much love when the guy has 3 games with over 10 carries in the last 2 years....and those were carries of 11, 11, and 13. Other than pure speculation, there is little indication he could handle the feature role, let alone thrive with it. I'm not saying he can't, I'm just saying it wouldn't be a bet I'd be comfortable making. I'm not saying that MBIII is that much more proven, but at least he's got 2 seasons with 135 and 138 carries under his belt. Compare that to Turner's CAREER 157 carries in 3 yrs (the most being last year at 80 in one season), I'd trust MBIII with a feature load more. That being said, I'd love to own either one of these guys if I had a late round flyer to grab each. I think both present interesting value, but I wouldn't say one is much better than the other by any means.
Team Legacy
Footballguy
I would try to avoid both in Dynasty Leagues and take your chances with a Jacobs or Norwood.
Jack Burton
Footballguy
I know that MBIII knows where the endzone is, and and for that reason alone I would prefer him to Turner.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Lamont Jordan was a top 10 back his first year after being traded.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
I've never thought of any of these players as a RB with the upside of Turner, with the exception of Barlow.It's not even close, imo.
BroadwayG
Footballguy
And then?
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
How about Ahman Green?
bollocks28
Footballguy
What if JJ and MBIII leave Dallas next year and Turner signs with the Cowboys... 
That's my silly speculation for the day.
That's my silly speculation for the day.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
How'd Chester Taylor do last year? Not all world, but still....
Chester Taylor and LaMont Jordan both did well enough to get their teams looking to replace them at the first available opportunity. Both provided decent short-term value as the sole function of the massive workload that they got (342 touches for each), which gave them fantasy value despite their relatively poor production (4.0 ypc or less for each). Both provided terrible long-term value as they demonstrated several key points. First off, when you switch teams, you usually wind up going to a far worse situation. Second off, just because you performed at a high level in limited action doesn't mean you'll perform at a high level in extended action. Third off, there's usually a reason why they were backups in the first place, even if the guy ahead of them *IS* an all-pro.I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Turner go to a horrible team, get 300+ carries at 4.0 ypc each, post a single top-10 season, and then fall entirely off the fantasy map. At least Barber III is more likely to hold his value for years to come, even if he fails as a featured back.
Yes, I feel better. If you're going to accuse me of something, accuse me of the right thing.Let's see... 500 words or less... how about two words: players improve.tribecalledjeff said:
Now a question for you. Do you agree that Production = Talent + Opportunity? If so, please address my point about Barber's situation being drastically better than Turner's, not just for this season, but for years to come as well. Ignoring it doesn't make it go away.
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
Players do improve (do you understand that Turner could also improve?). They also regress. They also have career years that are outliers. Barber's very high number of TDs screams outlier to me. It didn't happen in 2005 and I don't expect it to happen again. Do you? How can you pretend to be so certain that Barber will be in a better spot next year than Turner? You attempted, but did nothing more than throw out a bunch of possibilities without assigning any degree of likelihood to any of them, as though they were all equally likely. They're not. In my opinion, the chances that Turner stays in SD are very small, and I'm pretty sure you'd agree with that. I am very confident that he will be a feature back somewhere next year given his talent and the high level of interest from GMs around the league. I don't think that Barber will be. Which player do you think will generate more interest in free agency? I'm quite certain that if they were both free agents today, it would be Turner. But at best all I can do is guess. You seem to be arrogant enough that you KNOW Barber will be in a better situation. That's just foolish. Saying that Barber's situation is "drastically better" than Turner's for years to come... well, I could call it sensationalism and be correct. But I'll just say that I find it to be ridiculous.
Does Barber have a better situation this year? Sure, but it doesn't much matter. Barber, WITH 16 TDS last year, finished as RB19 in ppr (he was RB39 the year before), and a very inconsistent one at that. In the 16 weeks of fantasy football, he ran for under 30 yards and didn't score in 25% of his games. Even in ppr, during those same 4 weeks, he had less than 6 points. One of those weeks was week 16. So, even with a huge number of TDs that likely won't be repeated, he was a lower level RB2 with a lot of inconsistency that came up small when it mattered most. So you'll pardon me for not getting excited about his better situation this year. Barring injury, neither one of these guys will be a significant contributor to a fantasy championship this year.
It's very hard to predict opportunity in a dynasty. Situations change rapidly in the NFL and there is no way to predict where either one of these guys end up next year. So what it comes down to is that water eventually finds it's level. Turner's "level" is much higher than Barber's.
Penguin
Footballguy
SSOG, Excellent rebuttal. Like Chase, I originally thought there was a much larger gap between the two. You make some very good points for Barber in your post. I'm not sure that I am ready to jump to the other side, but you presented your case very well. Thanks for the well thought out response.My thinking is that both Turner and Barber have looked like absolute studs when given an opportunity. Turner averaged an amazing 6.3 yards per carry last year, but I think Marion Barber's 4.8 is every bit as impressive for a variety of reasons. First, Barber had MORE carries, and the more carries you get, the harder it is to keep your average up. Second, Marion Barber's carries mostly came in short-yardage situations against overstacked defenses. Third, and most importantly, Marion Barber had 16 TDs, which limits how many yards you can get (obviously if you get the ball 12 times on the 1 yard line, and gain 12 yards, you just had the greatest game in history despite only averaging 1 yard per carry). Barber had 25 rushes inside the opponent's 5 yard line. On his other 110 carries, he averaged 5.66 yards per carry (SSOG, what's your thinking here? I was a big MB3 fan from the outset, he hasn't been able to wrestle away the starting job from Julius Jones, who in my opinion has under performed the past two years. Watching both JJ & MB3 the other night against INDY ai think they bot are very average. There's no denying Barber's 16 TD's from a year ago, but I think he'd be lucky to hit 10 this season, or any season from this point on. Now, Turner has shown flashes in his limited action the past few years. I think what separates him from MB3 is that he should be the uncontested starter somewhere next year where as I believe MB3 will still be splitting time with JJ in '08 and possibly beyond. As far as disclosure goes, I own MB3 on two Dynasties and I do not own Turner on any team. I've been trying to trade MB3 in both leagues since February and I haven't even gotten a nibble, almost zero interest in him.Not according to the staff (or to me, for that matter).
gianmarco
Footballguy
That same high level of interest that got him a spot this year? There were several teams that needed a RB desperately that many were predicting would be filled by Turner. Not only did it not happen, but there were essentially no talks about it. In reality, Turner is not generating as much interest as his wagoneers want to admit. At this point, I don't think there's any indication that either Turner or MBIII will land a feature role anywhere. That's the premise behind Turner's value and it's far from a guarantee. While MBIII has the same uncertainty, at least he has SOME value in his current situation. As far as knocking MBIII, is "he didn't score in 25% of his games" a knock? Jesus, if you could get me a RB that scores in 75% of his games, I'd be thrilled. You failed to mention MBIII's successes in a limited role in Dallas as far as ypc, 10+ yd runs, etc. I'm sorry if Turner's 157 career carries over THREE years don't exactly instill a vote of confidence that he can carry a full load. Even if he is the best backup in the league, he's still a backup and that doesn't equate to full-time load bearer.And no, I don't think Turner's "level" is much higher than Barber's. That's a matter of opinion and I'll respectfully disagree. MBIII is a very talented RB and since he's carried it twice as much as Turner in only 2 years, I've had a little more to work with to judge as well
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
I agree with you only to a point. I still don't think it's easily Marion Barber......the idea that it's easy to pick this requires everyone to have a working crystal ball and nobody in here does.For me.....it's easily LaDanian Tomlinson over MB3. For me, it's easily S. Jackson over MB3. It's not easier for me to say some talented running back behind the greatest running back in the game is better long term than a guy who scored 15 plus Td's last year.....come on. We don't know where this guy is going next year.....if anywhere. You know where he's going, you let me know, if not....you don't.Yes, I can think of some situations to where if Michael Turner went to a team, I'd want him over Marion Barber......but again, my crystal ball isn't always accurate and sometimes it paints a picture that I dream of and not always really what happens.
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
I thought that there were a lot of talks revolving around Turner, including teams willing to give up their first round pick for him, just not a first and a third.You missed the part where I said that Barber had 4 games in which he didn't score OR RUSH FOR MORE THAN 30 YARDS, rendering him essentially useless. Four goose eggs is not what I'm looking for. I failed to mention his success in a limited role because the fact that it's a limited role renders him near useless. Would you be comfortable with him as your RB2? I sure wouldn't be. He's a fine RB3, but that doesn't excite me very much. It is my opinion that the large number of TDs was an outlier and won't happen again. My point was that even WITH those TDs, he wasn't all that great. If you take some of them away (who knows what the new coaching staff will do?), his value goes back down to 2005 levels when he wasn't even an RB3 in a 12 team league.That same high level of interest that got him a spot this year? There were several teams that needed a RB desperately that many were predicting would be filled by Turner. Not only did it not happen, but there were essentially no talks about it. In reality, Turner is not generating as much interest as his wagoneers want to admit. At this point, I don't think there's any indication that either Turner or MBIII will land a feature role anywhere. That's the premise behind Turner's value and it's far from a guarantee. While MBIII has the same uncertainty, at least he has SOME value in his current situation. As far as knocking MBIII, is "he didn't score in 25% of his games" a knock? Jesus, if you could get me a RB that scores in 75% of his games, I'd be thrilled. You failed to mention MBIII's successes in a limited role in Dallas as far as ypc, 10+ yd runs, etc. I'm sorry if Turner's 157 career carries over THREE years don't exactly instill a vote of confidence that he can carry a full load. Even if he is the best backup in the league, he's still a backup and that doesn't equate to full-time load bearer.And no, I don't think Turner's "level" is much higher than Barber's. That's a matter of opinion and I'll respectfully disagree. MBIII is a very talented RB and since he's carried it twice as much as Turner in only 2 years, I've had a little more to work with to judge as well
But at least you understand that it's all opinion and speculation. It is my opinion that Turner is much more talented and capable of carrying a full load than Barber, and that he'll get that chance next year. I'm basing that on stats and from watching the two of them play. To me, Turner has "it," and Barber doesn't. Yours opinion is different. That's cool, and I can agree to disagree. In fact, that's what makes dynasties so fun. I just have an issue when people start saying Barber's future situation will be drastically better than Turner's as though it is a fact.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Yep, I agree that I think we see it the same way with opposite preferences which is completely fine. And I just have an issue when people start saying Turner's future situation will be drastically better than Barber's as though it is a fact.I thought that there were a lot of talks revolving around Turner, including teams willing to give up their first round pick for him, just not a first and a third.You missed the part where I said that Barber had 4 games in which he didn't score OR RUSH FOR MORE THAN 30 YARDS, rendering him essentially useless. Four goose eggs is not what I'm looking for. I failed to mention his success in a limited role because the fact that it's a limited role renders him near useless. Would you be comfortable with him as your RB2? I sure wouldn't be. He's a fine RB3, but that doesn't excite me very much. It is my opinion that the large number of TDs was an outlier and won't happen again. My point was that even WITH those TDs, he wasn't all that great. If you take some of them away (who knows what the new coaching staff will do?), his value goes back down to 2005 levels when he wasn't even an RB3 in a 12 team league.That same high level of interest that got him a spot this year? There were several teams that needed a RB desperately that many were predicting would be filled by Turner. Not only did it not happen, but there were essentially no talks about it. In reality, Turner is not generating as much interest as his wagoneers want to admit. At this point, I don't think there's any indication that either Turner or MBIII will land a feature role anywhere. That's the premise behind Turner's value and it's far from a guarantee. While MBIII has the same uncertainty, at least he has SOME value in his current situation. As far as knocking MBIII, is "he didn't score in 25% of his games" a knock? Jesus, if you could get me a RB that scores in 75% of his games, I'd be thrilled. You failed to mention MBIII's successes in a limited role in Dallas as far as ypc, 10+ yd runs, etc. I'm sorry if Turner's 157 career carries over THREE years don't exactly instill a vote of confidence that he can carry a full load. Even if he is the best backup in the league, he's still a backup and that doesn't equate to full-time load bearer.And no, I don't think Turner's "level" is much higher than Barber's. That's a matter of opinion and I'll respectfully disagree. MBIII is a very talented RB and since he's carried it twice as much as Turner in only 2 years, I've had a little more to work with to judge as well
But at least you understand that it's all opinion and speculation. It is my opinion that Turner is much more talented and capable of carrying a full load than Barber, and that he'll get that chance next year. I'm basing that on stats and from watching the two of them play. To me, Turner has "it," and Barber doesn't. Yours opinion is different. That's cool, and I can agree to disagree. In fact, that's what makes dynasties so fun. I just have an issue when people start saying Barber's future situation will be drastically better than Turner's as though it is a fact.
There are a lot more "Turner, without question" posts here than those saying the same for MBIII. And no, I'm not lumping you into that crowd.
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Sleeper 43
Footballguy
I agree in the skills dept but look at a guy like Addai. The system and supporting cast makes half the players potential. Addai is an avg back in a great system with great players around him which makes him legit RB1 material. Turner is more than likely going to end up on a bad team with a huge contract vs MB3 getting re-signed in Dallas with Romo staying put for a long time to come. All this can change but like SSOG broke down in detailed fashion, its the most likely scenario based off the information we have at our disposal NOW.
Sleeper 43
Footballguy
This is the real bottom line in grading them. Its only natural. The ### for tat stuff you really cant weigh in. I COULD say Turner came in during trash time when defenses were gas'd out while Barber was on the goalline against fresh players, but its such a small detail to the overall factors of grading 2 guys so close.My thinking is that both Turner and Barber have looked like absolute studs when given an opportunity. Turner averaged an amazing 6.3 yards per carry last year, but I think Marion Barber's 4.8 is every bit as impressive for a variety of reasons. First, Barber had MORE carries, and the more carries you get, the harder it is to keep your average up. Second, Marion Barber's carries mostly came in short-yardage situations against overstacked defenses. Third, and most importantly, Marion Barber had 16 TDs, which limits how many yards you can get (obviously if you get the ball 12 times on the 1 yard line, and gain 12 yards, you just had the greatest game in history despite only averaging 1 yard per carry). Barber had 25 rushes inside the opponent's 5 yard line. On his other 110 carries, he averaged 5.66 yards per carry (SSOG, what's your thinking here? I was a big MB3 fan from the outset, he hasn't been able to wrestle away the starting job from Julius Jones, who in my opinion has under performed the past two years. Watching both JJ & MB3 the other night against INDY ai think they bot are very average. There's no denying Barber's 16 TD's from a year ago, but I think he'd be lucky to hit 10 this season, or any season from this point on. Now, Turner has shown flashes in his limited action the past few years. I think what separates him from MB3 is that he should be the uncontested starter somewhere next year where as I believe MB3 will still be splitting time with JJ in '08 and possibly beyond.Not according to the staff (or to me, for that matter).
As far as disclosure goes, I own MB3 on two Dynasties and I do not own Turner on any team. I've been trying to trade MB3 in both leagues since February and I haven't even gotten a nibble, almost zero interest in him.
So, in all of that analysis, the only way I think that Turner's situation is BETTER than Barber's next year (as opposed to worse or even) is if Barber and Jones both stay put while Turner moves. Since I consider that situation highly unlikely, I think it's highly unlikely that Turner will be in a better situation next year.
After that, it's simple.
MBIII's talent = Turner's talent
MBIII's situation this year > Turner's situation this year
MBIII's situation next year > Turner's situation next year
MBIII > Turner in dynasty.
The biggest knock on Marion Barber III is the perception that he's unable to carry the load... which is a funny criticism when Michael Turner has never had more than 80 carries in a season while Barber III has twice had 135+.
Edit: Even if you still think Turner is the better back in Dynasty, hopefully by now you realize that the phrase "in a landslide" is sensationalism, and in this case, not really warranted.
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
How in the hell can you profess to know either (a) what is going to happen as far as where these guys go or don't go, or (b) what the situation of any team will be next year? Situations change very quickly in the NFL. Dallas could easily be without TO and Glenn next year, and all of a sudden it's not a great situation anymore. And you say that Turner is going to end up on a bad team like that necessarily kills his value - several backs on bad teams still put up tremendous fantasy numbers. Rudi Johnson, Ladell Betts, Willie Parker, Frank Gore, Steven Jackson all put up fantastic numbers last year on non-winning teams.If you're in a dynasty league and draft on situation, you're not going to do very well.
The cream always rises to the top - draft the cream. And again, if you think that's Barber, great. I just disagree.
gianmarco
Footballguy
That's disgusting. You should be ashamed of yourself for posting something like that.
Sleeper 43
Footballguy
You have to form your own conclusions based off the information you have now. The drafts arent going to wait for the situation to clear itself up. Based off what I know now, its a safer bet Barber will have a safer path to fantasy success. You can risk that Turner will go somewhere solid and it might pan out, but if he goes to the Browns or GB you like his situation better than if Barber got locked in down in Dallas? Its highly unlikey Dallas will keep JJ and Barber, being that Barbers a RFA he'll be cheaper.
If you're in a dynasty league and draft on situation, you're not going to do very well.
The cream always rises to the top - draft the cream. And again, if you think that's Barber, great. I just disagree.
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tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
I've heard a lot of rumors that Dallas loves McFadden. Do you still like Barber then? TO and Glenn are eligible for AARP soon, do you like the Dallas situation as much then? And if Cleveland's O-Line improves a bit, I love it there with Quinn, Braylon, and KWIII. Situations are not static. Talent is.You have to form your own conclusions based off the information you have now. The drafts arent going to wait for the situation to clear itself up. Based off what I know now, its a safer bet Barber will have a safer path to fantasy success. You can risk that Turner will go somewhere solid and it might pan out, but if he goes to the Browns or GB you like his situation better than if Barber got locked in down in Dallas? Its highly unlikey Dallas will keep JJ and Barber, being that Barbers a RFA he'll be cheaper.How in the hell can you profess to know either (a) what is going to happen as far as where these guys go or don't go, or (b) what the situation of any team will be next year? Situations change very quickly in the NFL. Dallas could easily be without TO and Glenn next year, and all of a sudden it's not a great situation anymore. And you say that Turner is going to end up on a bad team like that necessarily kills his value - several backs on bad teams still put up tremendous fantasy numbers. Rudi Johnson, Ladell Betts, Willie Parker, Frank Gore, Steven Jackson all put up fantastic numbers last year on non-winning teams.
If you're in a dynasty league and draft on situation, you're not going to do very well.
The cream always rises to the top - draft the cream. And again, if you think that's Barber, great. I just disagree.
As I said, there are 4 possibilities. Either both players stay, Barber stays and Turner goes, Turner stays and Barber goes, or both players go. Do you agree that those are the only four possible outcomes?After that, let's evaluate each outcome in terms of situation. In the first outcome (both players stay), Barber will be in the better situation. Do you disagree with this? If Turner stays and Barber goes, then Barber is in the better situation. Do you disagree with this? In the final outcome (both players go), then both will have a 50/50 chance of going to the better situation, so it can be called a wash. Do you disagree with this? If you don't disagree with anything so far, then LIKELIHOOD is irrelevant, since there is no possible outcome so far where Turner winds up in a better situation than Barber (and several outcomes where Barber winds up in a better situation than Turner).Now, to evaluate the last possible outcome, and it's a sticky one. If Barber stays and Turner goes, it's hard to say definitively what will happen. My personal belief is that if Barber stays, it's to be a featured back (which means Dallas doesn't re-up for Julius Jones). I believe that because I don't think Dallas would sign two free agent runningbacks at the same time, and I also don't believe JJ or MBIII would consciously go into an RBBC situation if they could avoid it. If we follow that assumption, then the question becomes whether Dallas is a better situation than the average team that will be in the market for a free agent RB. I say yes, without question. In that case, this outcome would ALSO favor Marion Barber.The result is 4 possible outcomes, three of which favor Barber (if we accept my assumption as true), and one of which is a wash. It's entirely irrelevant how likely each outcome is, as there is no possible way you can weight the outcomes that will not result in Marion Barber having the better situation for the future.Now, if you want, you can reject my assumption and we can discuss it, but neither side will make much headway there, since it's just that- an assumption, with no way to prove or disprove it. If you disagree, that's fine, we'll just have to agree to disagree.
treat88
Footballguy
I disagree with two of your assertions SSOG.#1 Talent: Turner=BarberReality is Turner>>>BarberThere will be no definitive factual arguments in this respect.IMO Turner get the nod in speed, vision, balance, and power. Barber in receiving.Again, IMO, Turner is a far more talented back.#2 Opportunity:
You are spinning like a top to make your point. It's diplomatic spinning, but spinning nonetheless.Turner leaves. Barber leaves. Fall back to #1. Advantage Turner.Turner stays. Barber stays. You are correct. Advantage Barber.Turner leaves. Barber stays. Fall back to #1. Advantage Turner.Turner stays. Barber leaves. You are correct. Advantage Barber.So, IMO the only way Barber has a situational advantage is if Turner stays in SD (With a new OC, it's impossible to predict that Dallas is a more advantageous situation than any other). And that is about likelihood. Otherwise it's about talent. And, although I'm sure it can be argued, Turner is in a different class than Barber. A far more talented class.
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tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
This guy gets it. And he does it quickly.
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
I reject your assumption. It's ridiculous. But I can't argue with you anymore, it's like beating my head against a wall that is spinning around in circles and has way too many bricks.
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gianmarco
Footballguy
Problem with #1 above is that it's not necessarily advantage Turner. As an extreme example, what if Barber lands in Denver and Turner ends up in Cleveland? Advantage Turner? I think not. Even if you think Turner is better than Barber, which a lot seem to think, it's not as if Barber couldn't succeed as well. So if Barber ends up in a better situation than Turner, then #1 isn't the case. As there's no telling where either guy ends up, then this is essentially a wash as this scenario depends on which situation they land much moreso than their talent levels. And it's completely possible that Turner ends up in a RB hell like Cleveland as Jamal Lewis is only in a 1 year contract. At this point, it's impossible to predict where either guy could end up so there's no way to give an advantage one way or the other.I'm not even going to mention the scenario that J. Jones leaves and Barber stays and gets the full-time gig. If that were to happen and Turner ends up in Cleveland, then Barber wins there too. Option #3 above is another one that could be difficult to interpret since, as SSOG explained above, I can't imagine MBIII staying and J. Jones staying since both will be FA's.
Therefore, the above should read:
Turner leaves. Barber leaves. Fall back to #1. No advantage (50/50)
Turner stays. Barber stays. You are correct. Advantage Barber.
Turner leaves. Barber stays. Fall back to #1. Advantage Turner.
Turner stays. Barber leaves. You are correct. Advantage Barber.
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treat88
Footballguy
I don't disagree with you.Again, though, we have to go on what we know now. Given the potential teams, that we can project at this point, that will be in the market for a feature back, there are no Denver or Indianapolis situations for either back to go to. That could change, but we don't know. If they both leave their current teams, I will fall back to talent to give an advantage. In fact I will almost always fall back to talent in determining value.
(This is a complete aside, but even if Barber becomes the feature in Dallas, I am not at all sure that situation is any better than the many realistic potential landing spots for Turner.)
The above comment is an aside because:
It's about projection based on what we know now. I will project talent to win the day over potential situation. My eyes tell me Turner is a far superior back to Barber. For me that is a fact. I value that fact more highly than trying to read the tea leaves over who ends up where.
I love stats and the various ways they can be interpreted. I trust my eyes though. What I see is two completely different classes of athlete when I compare Burner to Barber. Decisive edge to Burner.
It may be an agree to disagree situation as SSOG mentioned. But I think the focus of the decision AT THIS POINT IN TIME lies in who you think is the more talented back, not their potential destinations. It's pointless at best to project who ends up where.
For me, it's Turner hands down.
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Sleeper 43
Footballguy
See... "far more talented" is where I lose the Turner lovers. Turners got great everything but so does Barber, id love to see some combine comparisons, I know it wouldn't clear things up but it might help people keep things in perspective. This guy is better than J.J any given day and fended off Maroney while in college. When its all said and done the real dice roll when choosing between the 2 is which situation you think they'll end up in, I think both of them will make fine RB's its just one will have the gravy train while the other has competition and play in a rough division.treat88 said:
treat88
Footballguy
Worlds apart in ability. Different classes of athlete on the field.Combine means nothing, but here's what I could find.A
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Turne...ootball_player)Barber didn't run or lift, but vertical jumped 40" and broad jumped 10'7". Wonderlic of 16.
http://beachthe.blogspot.com/2005/02/nfl-c...s-wr-rb-qb.html
I was actually surprised at the explosiveness Barber's jumps hint at. None of it carries over to the field.
switz
Footballguy
or poll
gianmarco
Footballguy
:X I don't see why there has to be a clear winner. It's ok for BOTH to be valuable prospects and for BOTH to be talented. And I think both are. I think MBIII is more talented, others think Turner is more talented. Just seems like the Turner proponents keep taking it to the extreme and saying it isn't even close. While I can understand arguments for either being more talented, I simply don't agree that it's worlds apart as is being suggested. But that's fine, to each his own. Unfortunately there is nothing at this point to give us a true answer. I guess my eyes just aren't good as Turner-lover-eyes.
Marion Barber isn't explosive on the field? Did you see the part where outside of short yardage situations he averaged 5.7 yards per carry last year? I guess that was just a very non-explosive 5.7 yards per carry.
"Explosive" is, in my opinion, one of those buzzwords that people throw around when they mean "I'm talking about of my you-know-what". What exactly does "explosive" mean? Is explosive referring to how much power someone runs with? In that case, I'd think the best goal-line/short-yardage back in the NFL would qualify as "explosive". Is explosive in reference to someone's big play ability? In that case, I'd think that 5.7 yards per carry is plenty indicative of big-play ability (especially since no plays are bigger than TDs, and nobody gets more than Barber).Is Barber a home-run threat? No, but neither were Emmitt Smith, Terrell Davis, or Jerome Bettis, to name a few, and they all seemed to do pretty well for themselves. All I care about is production on the field, and Marion Barber last year was a Capital S, Capital T, Capital U, Capital D. Maybe your eyes didn't tell you that, but that's probably because your eyes weren't watching what was happening on the field. Very few backs in the entire NFL made good things happen as consistently as MBIII.
This guy knows things.Marion Barber isn't explosive on the field? Did you see the part where outside of short yardage situations he averaged 5.7 yards per carry last year? I guess that was just a very non-explosive 5.7 yards per carry.
