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Mel kiper calls Andrew Luck best qb he's ever graded (1 Viewer)

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Footballguy
Strong words, but is he right?

Manning was highly thought of but still had some doubters, Luck has none, and for good reason.

kiper describes Luck as a "more athletic Peyton Manning" and "the best quarterback I've graded in 35 years of doing this."

 
I'd say he has the highest floor of any QB to come along in recent years. It's really hard to imagine him becoming any worse than Matt Ryan or Eli Manning. So from an NFL standpoint, he's immensely valuable. It's not often that you get a guy who's a near lock to become playoff caliber QB. My only question with Luck is upside. I think he has the potential to become a super elite Tom Brady type, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he is merely "very good" and not "elite" at the next level.

 
It's going to depend so much on offensive system. If he gets a shaun payton type, look out. He could be phenomenal. Put him in a run oriented attack, and he'll be rich gannon.

 
It's going to depend so much on offensive system. If he gets a shaun payton type, look out. He could be phenomenal. Put him in a run oriented attack, and he'll be rich gannon.
There really is not much of this run oriented stuff in today's NFL with elite QB's.You want a good balance but if your QB is the goods you let him throw the ball. Luck is the goods and he will play in a system that won't hold him back.
 
It's going to depend so much on offensive system. If he gets a shaun payton type, look out. He could be phenomenal. Put him in a run oriented attack, and he'll be rich gannon.
If he is what most think he is the offensive system will be built around him. His skillset will dictate the direction of the offense.
 
Among his failures: in 1990, Kiper thought that Heisman Trophy winner and University of Houston quarterback Andre Ware would be an excellent NFL quarterback and a great match for the Detroit Lions-- Ware's tenure in the NFL was brief and inconspicuous. Ware is considered among the biggest busts in draft history.[6]In the 1995 Draft, Kiper proclaimed UCLA wide receiver JJ Stokes a "sure-thing" who was destined to be a future All-Pro. On draft day, Kiper lambasted several teams, including the New York Jets, for passing on Stokes until he was selected 10th overall by the San Francisco 49ers. Stokes spent an undistinguished 8 years in San Francisco in the shadows of Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens, never making a single Pro Bowl or even surpassing 770 yards receiving.In the same 1995 Draft, Kiper had rated BYU Quarterback John Walsh as a first round pick. Walsh declared for the draft after his Junior season and had an abysmal NFL combine where he ran a 5.3 forty yard dash and displayed a weak arm in workouts. Nonetheless, Kiper still rated Walsh as a late 1st/early 2nd round pick on the day of the draft and said he would be a perfect fit for a "West Coast Offense" team like the San Francisco 49ers because of his accuracy on short passes. Walsh slid all the way to the 7th round where he was finally taken by the Cincinnati Bengals. He never appeared in a single game for the quarterback needy Bengals and was out of football less than a year later.In 1998 Kiper said that Washington State Quarterback Ryan Leaf's "attitude" (which had rubbed teammates and coaches the wrong way in college) would be an asset in the NFL and give him a mental advantage over Peyton Manning. Kiper also said that Leaf had the better natural physical tools and would be a great quarterback, though he still rated Manning as the more polished and better overall prospect. Leaf was chosen second overall by the San Diego Chargers immediately after Manning. Leaf's career soon imploded, largely because of a confrontational attitude and poor practice habits that alienated teammates, coaches, and fans. He is now regarded as not only the worst bust in NFL draft history, but also possibly the biggest bust in all of professional sportsAlso in 1998, the Green Bay Packers selected Matt Hasselbeck in the 6th round (187 overall). Hasselbeck had not even been invited to the scouting combine, and Kiper referred to the selection as "a waste of a pick". Hasselbeck went on to play for the Seattle Seahawks, and set over 30 franchise records. He led them to Superbowl XL, which they lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers.1999, Kiper said that Oregon quarterback Akili Smith would be a great NFL player and would finally provide the Cincinnati Bengals with the passer they'd lacked since Boomer Esiason. Smith was selected ahead of Daunte Culpepper, Torry Holt, Edgerrin James, Champ Bailey, and Jevon Kearse, but he spent less than four abysmal seasons in Cincinnati, starting only 17 games. He has since struggled in several brief stops in the NFL, NFL Europe, and the CFL. It's notable that Kiper rated Smith higher than Donovan McNabb and Culpepper, despite the facts that Smith only had 11 starts at the college level and had performed poorly on the Wonderlic aptitude tests administered at the NFL Combine, both of which are traditionally seen as important indicators of a quarterback's readiness for the NFL. Smith's career was marred by inconsistency and failure to grasp the complexities of the Bengals' playbook, issues which appear to have been foreshadowed by his lack of experience and low scores.
 
Not that I put any stock in what Kiper says, but you could look at any draft analyst's body of work and find huge misses and errors. That's just the nature of the beast. Another thing about top 10 picks...when 250+ players are selected after you, there's a pretty decent chance that some of them are going to end up being better pro players than you. It's easy to play hindsight psychic.

 
No one's going to get them all right; projecting prospects is a highly inexact art. But Kiper's failures do point out that even being "the best prospect ever" doesn't mean that Luck will be immediately successful, or even successful long term. He might be, he might not be, it'll depend on his situation and on personal characteristics which we really don't know yet.

People are talking like Luck coming into Indy will put him in a position to be the next Peyton by 2013. That is a long, long way from likely.

 
Mel and Todd always sex up the top 10-15 picks every year. It's not uncommon for 2nd round players and beyond to hit just as hard as top 10-15 guys (Brees...Brady). I always LOL when I watch the JaMarcus pick..."Three years from now you could be looking at one of the elite top 5 QBs in this league..." They really just like to be in soundbites.

 
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Luck is going to be very good.

However Kiper is not as highly regarded as he once was. In fact a lot of folks think he is a laughing stock that pushes his agenda. This is the same dude that say Jimmy Clausen would be a pro bowl QB.

 
Like many, I'm impressed with Luck as a prospect and feel he's about as close to can't miss as a QB prospect can be. My only concern is he likely will end up in Indy where he'll be asked to replace a legend, potentially as soon as next year. Replacing legends is not an easy task at any level. This kid will be coming into the league with enormous expectations (kinda similar to LeBron in hoops) where a 300 yard 2 TD will be expected. That's a tough assignment to live up to. Even if he does impress early and fulfill expectations, he'll then be saddled with the "great QB but can't win the big one" similar to what his predecessor went through. I don't want to say I feel bad for the kid but he's stepping into almost an impossible situation and he better have a thick skin because he will be unfairly judged until he wins a title.

 
I'm not a fan of Kiper. I don't bash him either.

But give the guy a break. He's been doing this for 35 years and people always point to the same 6-8 big misses (and never lists the ones that he gets more correct than others). I'd say most of us probably whiffed on more guys than that just last season and that's with already having the benefit of seeing guys having played in the NFL.

I do know that Kiper was always a John Elway fan and pretty much thought Dilfer sucked. Can we give him some credit for that?

 
Like many, I'm impressed with Luck as a prospect and feel he's about as close to can't miss as a QB prospect can be. My only concern is he likely will end up in Indy where he'll be asked to replace a legend, potentially as soon as next year. Replacing legends is not an easy task at any level. This kid will be coming into the league with enormous expectations (kinda similar to LeBron in hoops) where a 300 yard 2 TD will be expected. That's a tough assignment to live up to. Even if he does impress early and fulfill expectations, he'll then be saddled with the "great QB but can't win the big one" similar to what his predecessor went through. I don't want to say I feel bad for the kid but he's stepping into almost an impossible situation and he better have a thick skin because he will be unfairly judged until he wins a title.
This is where I think his father's experience in the NFL benefits him, just as it did the Manning bros.
 
Colts are an old team but aren't as pitiful as the typical team picking a qb first just to get him sackt 100 times. This is really Lucky all around.

 
I'm not a fan of Kiper. I don't bash him either.

But give the guy a break. He's been doing this for 35 years and people always point to the same 6-8 big misses (and never lists the ones that he gets more correct than others). I'd say most of us probably whiffed on more guys than that just last season and that's with already having the benefit of seeing guys having played in the NFL.

I do know that Kiper was always a John Elway fan and pretty much thought Dilfer sucked. Can we give him some credit for that?
I'd be interested to see where Mel would rank among NFL GMs. Nobody is a perfect predictor, even the Patriots and Steelers who seem better than most.
 
Luck is going to be very good.However Kiper is not as highly regarded as he once was. In fact a lot of folks think he is a laughing stock that pushes his agenda. This is the same dude that say Jimmy Clausen would be a pro bowl QB.
Also says Denard Robinson is already the number 1 or 2 WR in next years draft... despite never playing WR.
 
Like many, I'm impressed with Luck as a prospect and feel he's about as close to can't miss as a QB prospect can be. My only concern is he likely will end up in Indy where he'll be asked to replace a legend, potentially as soon as next year. Replacing legends is not an easy task at any level. This kid will be coming into the league with enormous expectations (kinda similar to LeBron in hoops) where a 300 yard 2 TD will be expected. That's a tough assignment to live up to. Even if he does impress early and fulfill expectations, he'll then be saddled with the "great QB but can't win the big one" similar to what his predecessor went through. I don't want to say I feel bad for the kid but he's stepping into almost an impossible situation and he better have a thick skin because he will be unfairly judged until he wins a title.
This is where I think his father's experience in the NFL benefits him, just as it did the Manning bros.
Todd Marinovich's father was in the NFL.
 
I noticed that, too.

You never know with Kiper. It seemed he was trying to dispel any notion that RG3 would fight for the top spot, but saying that while RG3 is very good, he's light years behind Luck in his opinion.

One thing I'll say, you're hard pressed to find any kind of scouting pundit who will go on record and not say Luck is an all-time prospect. Doesn't mean it'll work out for the kid, but he seems to be the biggest no brainer in a long, long time if you've got the 1st pick.

 
Luck is going to be very good.However Kiper is not as highly regarded as he once was. In fact a lot of folks think he is a laughing stock that pushes his agenda. This is the same dude that say Jimmy Clausen would be a pro bowl QB.
Nonsense. He is more highly regarded now than he was 20 years ago, when he was a dweeb freak that ESPN found in a Baltimore basement, and the commentators would openly laugh at. Now he and McShay (who owes his career to Kiper) are on SportsCenter the next three months more than NHL highlights.There is an entire industry, the draftnik industry, because of him. He is the godfather. He rates and ranks players other guys don't even know about. On day 3 of the draft, when the Packers take a Division II WR from Obscure Tech, you won't hear a word from McShay or Mayock. It'll be Kiper telling you who that player is.
 
Like many, I'm impressed with Luck as a prospect and feel he's about as close to can't miss as a QB prospect can be. My only concern is he likely will end up in Indy where he'll be asked to replace a legend, potentially as soon as next year. Replacing legends is not an easy task at any level. This kid will be coming into the league with enormous expectations (kinda similar to LeBron in hoops) where a 300 yard 2 TD will be expected. That's a tough assignment to live up to. Even if he does impress early and fulfill expectations, he'll then be saddled with the "great QB but can't win the big one" similar to what his predecessor went through. I don't want to say I feel bad for the kid but he's stepping into almost an impossible situation and he better have a thick skin because he will be unfairly judged until he wins a title.
This is where I think his father's experience in the NFL benefits him, just as it did the Manning bros.
Todd Marinovich's father was in the NFL.
Negative. He was in the AFL. Get your facts straight, skippy.
 
I'm not a fan of Kiper. I don't bash him either.

But give the guy a break. He's been doing this for 35 years and people always point to the same 6-8 big misses (and never lists the ones that he gets more correct than others). I'd say most of us probably whiffed on more guys than that just last season and that's with already having the benefit of seeing guys having played in the NFL.

I do know that Kiper was always a John Elway fan and pretty much thought Dilfer sucked. Can we give him some credit for that?
I'd be interested to see where Mel would rank among NFL GMs. Nobody is a perfect predictor, even the Patriots and Steelers who seem better than most.
As a Pats fan (meaning I follow the team pretty closely), I can say the Pats drafts in the last half dozen years have been pretty bad. Some hits, yes, but lots of big misses. And I'm mainly talking the first 3 rounds of the drafts. The Pats have had a LOT of picks in the first 3 rounds and a LOT of misses.
 
Mel Kiper seems a lot like Jim Cramer to me. He's more of an entertainer/blowhard than a guy that can actually pick winners consistently. It's his job to be bullish even when most of the picks don't warrant it. I remember watching the 1995 draft and thinking this first round has more potential landmines than I have seen in a long time, and what a horrible year it was to have the first overall pick. And yet Aaron Rodgers still dropped like a rock, while Kiper pimped Alex Smith as the best QB of the draft. Post draft he graded Green Bay's draft a "C" with their haul of Rodgers and Nick Collins (a huge second round reach according to Mel).

Seriously, I think a braintrust of the top posters on footballguys would crush this clown easily on grading prospects. Like Cramer, he's really not very good at what he claims to be good at.

 
I'm not a fan of Kiper. I don't bash him either.

But give the guy a break. He's been doing this for 35 years and people always point to the same 6-8 big misses (and never lists the ones that he gets more correct than others). I'd say most of us probably whiffed on more guys than that just last season and that's with already having the benefit of seeing guys having played in the NFL.

I do know that Kiper was always a John Elway fan and pretty much thought Dilfer sucked. Can we give him some credit for that?
I'd be interested to see where Mel would rank among NFL GMs. Nobody is a perfect predictor, even the Patriots and Steelers who seem better than most.
Hard to say because he can walk away from a busted pick and still keep his job. It is interesting that his sort-of-baseball-peer (Bill James) is connected with a MLB team and Kiper has never been on a NFL payroll.
 
Seems like every year we get into these conversations about the likes of Kiper, Mayock, etc...and their hits and misses. Anyone that does prognostication should really no better than to cherry pick quotes and sound bites to make a pro/con case. These guys rate and project hundreds of players each year. OF COURSE they're going to have swings and misses. Let's not forget that the NFL teams and their entire scouting departments whiff unbelievably ALL THE TIME. And there are guys that these teams take late in drafts that we then credit them for years later when the player pans out, but the reality is...they didn't know. If the Saints knew Marques Colston would be a Pro Bowler, they wouldn't have waited for the 7th round. If the Pats really thought Brady would be...Tom Brady, he would've gone before the 6th.

As a long-time writer for this site, I'm very aware of how ridiculous you can look when you go back and evaluate calls and predictions. Even in years where I feel like I killed it, the chances are I still got 40%-45% of my picks dead wrong. That's just the nature of the beast.

 
there are guys that these teams take late in drafts that we then credit them for years later when the player pans out, but the reality is...they didn't know. If the Saints knew Marques Colston would be a Pro Bowler, they wouldn't have waited for the 7th round. If the Pats really thought Brady would be...Tom Brady, he would've gone before the 6th.
This is a great point.
 
there are guys that these teams take late in drafts that we then credit them for years later when the player pans out, but the reality is...they didn't know. If the Saints knew Marques Colston would be a Pro Bowler, they wouldn't have waited for the 7th round. If the Pats really thought Brady would be...Tom Brady, he would've gone before the 6th.
This is a great point.
Thanks.And we all experience this every year in fantasy. You can't tell me there aren't guy who thought CJ2K would be a steal this year, had the 6th pick and would've taken him gladly, but somehow he went 5th and the "had" to take LeSean McCoy. Or the guy who was in a deep league and grabbed Victor Cruz on a flier. He probably ranked him 60th or worse...but it was just a mental flip of the coin because he needed another receiver.Now imagine trying to do that on a professional level, with all the other variables in play like character, compensation, scheme, coaching tendencies. Only instead of a W-L fantasy record, it's your livelihood.
 
Luck is going to be very good.However Kiper is not as highly regarded as he once was. In fact a lot of folks think he is a laughing stock that pushes his agenda. This is the same dude that say Jimmy Clausen would be a pro bowl QB.
Nonsense. He is more highly regarded now than he was 20 years ago, when he was a dweeb freak that ESPN found in a Baltimore basement, and the commentators would openly laugh at. Now he and McShay (who owes his career to Kiper) are on SportsCenter the next three months more than NHL highlights.There is an entire industry, the draftnik industry, because of him. He is the godfather. He rates and ranks players other guys don't even know about. On day 3 of the draft, when the Packers take a Division II WR from Obscure Tech, you won't hear a word from McShay or Mayock. It'll be Kiper telling you who that player is.
Thats not true. Before there was just him. Now there are tons of draft guys that do what Mel does. And much better without the outlandish statements. See Claussen, Holmes, Russell as evidence.
 
Not that he's a bust (yet) But, I remember a couple of years ago people were saying the same things about Sam Bradford. IIRC words like best QB in decades, has all the skills, yada, yada, yada. Sure, Luck may have all the skills, but he is going to need the rest of his team to play up to its potential. Otherwise you're looking at another Barry Sanders situation.

 
Seems like every year we get into these conversations about the likes of Kiper, Mayock, etc...and their hits and misses. Anyone that does prognostication should really no better than to cherry pick quotes and sound bites to make a pro/con case. These guys rate and project hundreds of players each year. OF COURSE they're going to have swings and misses. Let's not forget that the NFL teams and their entire scouting departments whiff unbelievably ALL THE TIME. And there are guys that these teams take late in drafts that we then credit them for years later when the player pans out, but the reality is...they didn't know. If the Saints knew Marques Colston would be a Pro Bowler, they wouldn't have waited for the 7th round. If the Pats really thought Brady would be...Tom Brady, he would've gone before the 6th.As a long-time writer for this site, I'm very aware of how ridiculous you can look when you go back and evaluate calls and predictions. Even in years where I feel like I killed it, the chances are I still got 40%-45% of my picks dead wrong. That's just the nature of the beast.
Most of the picks in the bottom of the draft don't ever make it in the NFL. That's where guys like Kiper should at least uncover a hidden gem every once in a while, but they usually don't. In addition, he almost always gets the top of the draft wrong too. What I would love to hear Kiper say just once is that the entire first round is filled with busts. So why pimp every top prospect as the next great thing, when even the first round is 50/50 at best? Teams whiff every year because there just aren't that many quality starters out of the hundreds that are drafted. Teams are lucky if they get a couple of good starters out of any draft.
 
Luck is going to be very good.However Kiper is not as highly regarded as he once was. In fact a lot of folks think he is a laughing stock that pushes his agenda. This is the same dude that say Jimmy Clausen would be a pro bowl QB.
Nonsense. He is more highly regarded now than he was 20 years ago, when he was a dweeb freak that ESPN found in a Baltimore basement, and the commentators would openly laugh at. Now he and McShay (who owes his career to Kiper) are on SportsCenter the next three months more than NHL highlights.There is an entire industry, the draftnik industry, because of him. He is the godfather. He rates and ranks players other guys don't even know about. On day 3 of the draft, when the Packers take a Division II WR from Obscure Tech, you won't hear a word from McShay or Mayock. It'll be Kiper telling you who that player is.
Thats not true. Before there was just him. Now there are tons of draft guys that do what Mel does. And much better without the outlandish statements. See Claussen, Holmes, Russell as evidence.
Who is much better? NFL Draft Scout maybe? And they all have misses. Tell me who is much better, and I will find as many misses as Kiper has had in about 5 minutes. The rest just don't have the stage Mel has, so their outlandish predictions statements don't get out there. I defend Mel a lot, but I don't think he is infallible. It's just that I appreciate the value he has on Draft Day. And not for the outlandish statements, I don't really care about his predictions of their career, I care about the book on the player, the hard data. And Mel, on Draft Day, is the one that gives it to you. Not McShay, not Mayock, not anyone. Nawrocki or one of the NFLDS guys might be able to, but they aren't on the broadcast. Nawrocki occasionally is, but his TV presence is brutal, so they limit his appearances. Some sleeper gets taken, who is not on the list of 75 players that Mayock can speak about with authority, and it's Mel that rattles off his stats, strengths, weaknesses, etc.Mel has gotten a bit soft in recent years, he doesn't call out a player as a bust the way he used to. So, I think it leads to him being more generous with picks than he used to. Now, his criticisms tend to be more about the value of picks rather than the actual players ("If the Bears wanted Player X, they should have traded down", etc.). By the way, just pointing out misses by Kiper doesn't show anything, except that he isn't infallible. Unless, of course, you are stating that the "tons" of other draftniks don't miss. Not too many of them go too far out on a limb, and the ones that do, have more misses than the ones that don't.
 
Most of the picks in the bottom of the draft don't ever make it in the NFL. That's where guys like Kiper should at least uncover a hidden gem every once in a while, but they usually don't.
I disagree with this 100%. I've been reading Kiper's books for years, and every year, he names several late rounders he likes, and he does it before the draft, he doesn't just name early round prospects that fell for one reason or another. He misses some too. Then again, so do the NFL GMs.

 
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Not that he's a bust (yet) But, I remember a couple of years ago people were saying the same things about Sam Bradford. IIRC words like best QB in decades, has all the skills, yada, yada, yada. Sure, Luck may have all the skills, but he is going to need the rest of his team to play up to its potential. Otherwise you're looking at another Barry Sanders situation.
No they weren't.
 
Not that he's a bust (yet) But, I remember a couple of years ago people were saying the same things about Sam Bradford. IIRC words like best QB in decades, has all the skills, yada, yada, yada. Sure, Luck may have all the skills, but he is going to need the rest of his team to play up to its potential. Otherwise you're looking at another Barry Sanders situation.
No they weren't.
There was a large number of media pundits and users on this site comparing his rating as a prospect to Peyton Manning and saying he too was one of the best prospects in a while.So yes, they were.
 
Not that he's a bust (yet) But, I remember a couple of years ago people were saying the same things about Sam Bradford. IIRC words like best QB in decades, has all the skills, yada, yada, yada. Sure, Luck may have all the skills, but he is going to need the rest of his team to play up to its potential. Otherwise you're looking at another Barry Sanders situation.
No they weren't.
There was a large number of media pundits and users on this site comparing his rating as a prospect to Peyton Manning and saying he too was one of the best prospects in a while.So yes, they were.
There was definitely some "Best QB prospect in years" stuff out there, no doubt. Nothing close to Luck. Manning's pre-draft hype wasn't close to Luck's.I haven't heard Luck-type hype about a QB, ever. I am guessing you'd have to go back to Elway to find someone that everyone agreed upon like that.
 
Like many, I'm impressed with Luck as a prospect and feel he's about as close to can't miss as a QB prospect can be. My only concern is he likely will end up in Indy where he'll be asked to replace a legend, potentially as soon as next year. Replacing legends is not an easy task at any level. This kid will be coming into the league with enormous expectations (kinda similar to LeBron in hoops) where a 300 yard 2 TD will be expected. That's a tough assignment to live up to. Even if he does impress early and fulfill expectations, he'll then be saddled with the "great QB but can't win the big one" similar to what his predecessor went through. I don't want to say I feel bad for the kid but he's stepping into almost an impossible situation and he better have a thick skin because he will be unfairly judged until he wins a title.
I think it will be easier for him than people think for a few reasons:- It's Indianapolis and they don't have a great history outside of Manning.- Since it took Manning many years to win a SB and was defended by fans, Luck will get the same thing.- He's not really 'replacing' Manning since Manning didn't play last year. The fans will be looking for an improvement from last year, not a SB.
 
- It's Indianapolis and they don't have a great history outside of Manning.
I agree with your points but come on, Unitas & Manning are a pretty great history of QBs for a franchise, considering how long both have played. Yeah, there was a gap, but when you have 2 of the top 5 QBs of all time playing for you team, you can't say you don't have a great history of QBs.
 
- It's Indianapolis and they don't have a great history outside of Manning.
I agree with your points but come on, Unitas & Manning are a pretty great history of QBs for a franchise, considering how long both have played. Yeah, there was a gap, but when you have 2 of the top 5 QBs of all time playing for you team, you can't say you don't have a great history of QBs.
I'm only talking about Indianapolis - they never won more than 9 games in a season before Manning.
 
- It's Indianapolis and they don't have a great history outside of Manning.
I agree with your points but come on, Unitas & Manning are a pretty great history of QBs for a franchise, considering how long both have played. Yeah, there was a gap, but when you have 2 of the top 5 QBs of all time playing for you team, you can't say you don't have a great history of QBs.
Unitas never played in Indianapolis.
 

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