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Method to choosing your starters? (1 Viewer)

notdarkyet

notdarkyet

Footballguy
I'm sure some people go straight by the projections provided here or some other resource, but what do you do when they are close in projected output, what is your go-to method when selecting who to start? Do you ignore projections all together and do matchups or gut feeling?

1. I look at projections as a starting point.

2. If there are 3-4 players all ranked within a point or so of each other, I see what of their projections I disagree with.

3. If there is nothing there, I look at match-ups

4. If the there isn't a discernible difference in competition, I look at who is playing well, or "hot"

5. Weather?

6. Flip a coin (Yea, I did this last week between CJ3 and Turner, the coin agreed with where I was leaning)

How about you guys? Any method to your madness?

 
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For me it goes like this:

1. Projections

2. Match-ups

3. Gut

One time this season I was so confused, I wrote 3 players names down on a piece of paper and asked my daughter to pick 2 of the names. I started the 2 names she picked and it turned out o.k. (for the record she chose Addai & Turner).

 
Your list is pretty good

1) Matchup (Points allowed at position etc.)

2) Projections

3) Weather

4) injuries (on opposing D and own team)

5) Overall gut feeling (e.g. I am starting Reggie Wayne and Calvin Johnson over Steve Smith TB will shut them down and by the time CAR realizes they need to pass to Smith it will be too late)

 
If 2 players appear fairly equal to choose from and there is no injuries to evaluate I go with usually:

1) defensive matchup (how highly ranked is the defensive opponent against the run or pass?)

2) recent player performance trends (how have the players in question been performing over the last 2-3 weeks?

3) location/field conditions of game and whether its a divisional opponent or not (its more challenging to predict fantasy stats on items 1 and 2 above against teams that play each other 2x a year in same division.

4) Never start Laverneous Coles unless he's your last WR option...1 thru 3 above never apply to him. :kicksrock:

 
Captain Spaulding said:
If 2 players appear fairly equal to choose from and there is no injuries to evaluate I go with usually:

1) defensive matchup (how highly ranked is the defensive opponent against the run or pass?)

2) recent player performance trends (how have the players in question been performing over the last 2-3 weeks?

3) location/field conditions of game and whether its a divisional opponent or not (its more challenging to predict fantasy stats on items 1 and 2 above against teams that play each other 2x a year in same division.

4) Never start Laverneous Coles unless he's your last WR option...1 thru 3 above never apply to him. :goodposting:
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This is why most people didn't start Vincent Jackson this week. I am not sure why they are beating themselves up.
 
I think I am more successful when looking most closely at matchups when trying to make those tougher decisions. For me my typical scenario I ask myself is somewhat in this order:

Do I think this will be a high scoring game?

How good is the opponent vs. Pass/Rush?

Do I expect the weather to be something that could have an impact on the game?

In the end I try to formulate what I think that player will put up for numbers using all information I have gathered during the week but those listed above are some of the key elements.

 
Projections from this and other sites

Defensive match up against pass or run

Was player's team or his opponent embarrassed the previous week?

Chance of a "trap" game

 
Captain Spaulding said:
If 2 players appear fairly equal to choose from and there is no injuries to evaluate I go with usually:

1) defensive matchup (how highly ranked is the defensive opponent against the run or pass?)

2) recent player performance trends (how have the players in question been performing over the last 2-3 weeks?

3) location/field conditions of game and whether its a divisional opponent or not (its more challenging to predict fantasy stats on items 1 and 2 above against teams that play each other 2x a year in same division.
Click to expand...
Slight variation no #2. If my RB is going against Defense A, then I look to see how other RBs have performed recently against Defense A. Sometime even breakdown Defense A by home vs. road.
 
Warhogs said:
I think I am more successful when looking most closely at matchups when trying to make those tougher decisions. For me my typical scenario I ask myself is somewhat in this order:

Do I think this will be a high scoring game?

How good is the opponent vs. Pass/Rush?

Do I expect the weather to be something that could have an impact on the game?

In the end I try to formulate what I think that player will put up for numbers using all information I have gathered during the week but those listed above are some of the key elements.
Click to expand...
Do you look at Over/Under lines on the games when factoring this in?
 
I will write the players names on separate pieces of paper and lay them in the floor. I then put doggie treats on top on each one. I call my dog into the room and which ever one he eats first, that's the player I'm starting. Boy, does he love football season. Last night he actually "ate" Rivers but I overroad him and decided on McNabb. I think I screwed up!!

 
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Tampa Buc said:
I will write the players names on separate pieces of paper and lay them in the floor. I then put doggie treats on top on each one. I call my dog into the room and which ever one he eats first, that's the player I'm starting. Boy, does he love football season.
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Now this is a great idea. I usually just call the names out to my wife and she picks the one she likes sounds the best. Amazingly she has been right over 75% of the time.
 
I no longer use projections from here, any other FF site, or our league service provider. They tend to obfuscate the issue rather than provide clarity.

NBYS - Simply the best and most important rule; don't over think your best players, just roll them out, accept the occasional bad game, savor the big blow ups. While I try to never break rule #1 in FF, it's important to recognize who YS is. I drafted Addai and Edwards, but they lost that status early to CJ2 and CJ3. I never bench Johnson and Johnson regardless of match-up, weather, come what may. I always want at least 2-3 starters I don't have to think about (in my 12 teamer, it's 4 - Crosby at K and Ravens at DT, though for insurance I have the Colts).
Recent Trends - I focus on last 3 and last 5 games of my available options
Match-up - specifically, I start with reading a couple sites general overviews, then analyze FF points allowed by DT at each position, weighing the recent (3 and 5 week) trends
Ask my live-in gf - Essentially this is akin to the doggie treat methodology in that it is my last resort good luck charm. A lifelong NYer, she doesn't even know who Eli Manning or Brett Favre are. However, she has a 100% success rate choosing between two random names. Awesome intuition, I don't mess with karma and never ever override her choice.ETA: There are other factors (injuries, accidental firearm discharges, etc)....but however many there are, weather is at the rock bottom. It is probably the most over hyped factor seen on a consistent year in and year out basis, affecting less than a handful of games all year. I see a lot of folks screw themselves by putting too much emphasis on this one.

ETA2: except in GTD injury cases or severe apocalyptic weather, I make all these decisions by Thursday a.m. The one thing you should never do is vacillate up until Saturday or Sunday morning; last minute changes screw things up more often than not.

 
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One thing I use in my decision making that no rankings EVER seem to mention is who is the home team? Players tend to perform better at home than on the road. So if I have a tough decision between two players I usually tend to gravitate towards the one playing at home.

 
notdarkyet said:
I'm sure some people go straight by the projections provided here or some other resource, but what do you do when they are close in projected output, what is your go-to method when selecting who to start? Do you ignore projections all together and do matchups or gut feeling?1. I look at projections as a starting point. 2. If there are 3-4 players all ranked within a point or so of each other, I see what of their projections I disagree with. 3. If there is nothing there, I look at match-ups4. If the there isn't a discernible difference in competition, I look at who is playing well, or "hot"5. Weather? 6. Flip a coin (Yea, I did this last week between CJ3 and Turner, the coin agreed with where I was leaning)How about you guys? Any method to your madness?
Click to expand...
I'm getting away from using projections and rankings.I'm focusing more on:1) Rush/Pass D rank but take those with a grain of salt (sometimes a high rank vs. a components stems partly from a very low rank vs. the other; opponents played might not have had strong pass or run games, etc.)2) Fantasy points allowed. This one has been pretty darn useful for QB, RB, WR, and D. For K, not so much.3) Home/Away game; Turf/natural grass for speed teams4) Weather5) Injuries to offensive line 6) Injuries to opposing D 7) Historical trends (certain guys own certain teams, etc.)8) Current "hotness" or "coldness" of player9) Current "hotness" or "coldness" of player's team and opponent10) Having something to play for.11) All else fails, gut.
 
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