I hope he sits at home all year eating cheetos watching football on his couch
I hope I get to sit at home all year eating cheetos watching football on my couch. That is exactly what I would do if I had millions of dollars. I think people overreacted early to this holdout, as if it every holdout ended up like chris johnson. That is not the case. Short lived holdouts happen all of the time, and it is mostly only the rookies and late holdouts who struggle badly. Johnson held out until september 1st, unusually late, and it showed.
But this has now crossed the line. It is august 26, and mjd hasn't even agreed that he is coming back at some date in the future. Even if the likely turnaround happens, we are now looking at a september return, no training camp, and very possibly no preseason action whatsoever. Even if he has memorized the playbook and practiced every play at home between workouts, he is behind the 8 ball from the moment he arrives. And by comparison to johnson, who showed up 9/1 before their first regular season game on 9/11, the jags play on september 9th. That gives him four days to show up just to have as much time as johnson did last year
Even if he does return, Jennings has earned his snaps and will keep him from getting the kind of carries he needed to lead the league in rushing. Jones drew led the league with 343 rush attempts last year. Second was michael turner at 301. And while some people have cited him having few carries early in his career as a reason to think he can stick around for a while, over the last three years, nobody has touched the ball more on offense than jones drew except the guy people are comparing him to: chris johnson. (Credit to ff index for that point)
So not only should you expect a dropoff in carries, but a dropoff in production with those carries due to overuse and the holdout. Yes, the offensive line looks good at run blocking again, and jennings has looked good in preseason action, but remember than jennings averaged north of 5.0 in his two prior healthy years as well.
Put it all together, and the people still drafting him in the second are taking an enormous risk, not only that he returns at all, but that he is anything close to the player he was before. To justify both risks in a second round pick, you need him to return at least late first round value for your pick, and I just don't see it anymore. It certainly could happen, but the same could be said of all of those second and third round backs.
I traded him away in one league, and was looking to acquire him in another, but I am no longer looking to take him back on unless it is at a substantial discount. The train has left the station.