Bounce back? That implies that the guy was good at one time. I agree he has value in that offense but the guy has been putrid his whole career. He has no explosion and rarely gets more than 3 or 4 yards. So lets not get carried away because a team drafted him in the first. There are lots of busts every year. I got him off waivers before he was named the starter and I'm happy with that price.
Would you say Trent Richardson is a bust, or "putrid"? I mean, he's only one of the most highly regarded RB prospects in the past decade--perhaps second only to AP, and was maybe even ahead of AP in some scouts eyes. Because his rookie season, to date, is probably less impressive than Moreno's. Let's have a look, shall we? Overall, there isn't a whole lot of difference between the two, and one could argue that Knowshon, based on rate stats, was more impressive during his rookie campaign than Richardson has been thus far this season (granted, neither of the two was/has been very impressive, so the term more impressive does not mean much, except to say that Knowshon outplayed the most hyped RB since AP). I'm also going to include Knowshon's numbers from his sophomore campaign, which was the last time he had meaningful touches prior to 4 weeks ago. You'll notice a significant improvement from his rookie campaign. Since then, his career has been derailed by injuries and lack of opportunity, but he WAS on an upward trajectory and I would hardly call his play putrid. Sure, he's not incredibly exciting (although anyone who wasn't extremely impressed and 'excited' by his hurdle job over Ed Reed this past week is probably catatonic), but he has always been quietly productive. The only other negative, aside from his lack of flair and his injury problems, was his fumbling problem, but many young backs have periods during which they struggle to hold onto the ball--most of them eventually right the ship. AP and Tiki both come to mind. Watching Knowshon the past four weeks, it's very obvious that he is making a point to hold onto the ball extra tight when running in traffic. Anyway, the Numbers:TR Rushing: 258-897-11
KM Rushing: 247-947-7
KM2 Rushing: 182-779-5
TR Receiving: 48-352-1
KM Receiving: 28-213-2
KM2 Receiving: 37-372-3
TR rate stats: 3.48 YPC, 7.33 YPR, 5.33 YPT(target), 72.7% catch rate, 12 total TD’s, 1TD/25.5 touches
KM rate stats: 3.83 YPC, 7.61 YPR, 5.20 YPT(target), 68.3% catch rate, 9 total TD’s, 1TD/30.6 touches
KM2 rate stats: 4.28 YPC, 10.1 YPR, 7.75 YPT(target), 77.1% catch rate, 8 total TD’s, 1TD/27.4 touch
My point is simply to say that not all rookie RB's, even the top prospects, hit the ground running the way guys like AP did or Doug Martin has. For some, there is a learning curve, just like at other positions. I believe that Trent Richardson is going to be a super star, but he is having a very pedestrian rookie season, just as Knowshon did. His sophomore campaign was looking very promising before being derailed by injuries. And he's just now getting meaningful and bell-cow reps again, and is looking damn good in the process. The pedigree is there. The meaningful data that we have show a positive trajectory. The opportunity is now there. I see no reason to believe what we're seeing is a mirage, and no reason to believe it will not continue, barring injury. IMO Moreno is Denver's new bell cow RB, for the remainder of this season and for future seasons, and a likely top 7-10 dynasty RB. How many, RB's after all, are guaranteed 20+ touches per game? Not many. That, mixed with the talent that he has flashed, make him an obvious buy for me. If I could pry him away from a skeptical owner for a mid to late first rounder, I'd do it in an instant. The only thing that will derail this train is an injury, and that's a very real concern, but IMO no more so than for any other RB. Knowshon's primary injury problem his first few years was a recurring hamstring injury, which I think it's safe to say has healed completely by now.
