Most underrated / overrated players by ADP (1 Viewer)

[Ryan99]

Jonathan Stewart underrated? Now, that's truly laughable. No one has ever had more deluded, Pollyanish supporters on all fantasy forums than he has. Why is Gronk overrated while Graham isn't? Please explain.

These projections are from before his most recent injury, so the Stewart numbers are not reliable. However, I think the Carolina backfield in general is underrated, and since Stewart is falling rapidly he will probably become underrated soon if he isn't already. I think he's supposed to be ready to start the season.Graham was right on the cusp of where I stopped typing guys' names. Most people have Graham slightly ahead of Gronk statistically, so he's just slightly less 'overrated' based on his ADP, which I have as 15 compared to Gronk's 14. I have these guys' appropriate draft position in the 20-30 range. There's just too much depth at TE to justify an early 2nd round pick for these guys based on VAR, imo, when you could instead be getting a 2nd tier RB like Fred Jackson or Lynch. Of course, if you're pretty sure that Jackson would still be there for you in 3, then maybe you do take the TE or a WR.

 

[Ryan99]

I noticed that your underrated players suck, for the most part. Your overrated players are studs, for the most part. So, based on my intuition, you should re-hypothesize the theorem that brought you to these rankings.

This thread almost belongs more in the FFA than the Pool

Overrated/underrated relative to their ADP. Reading, it's fundamental.

 

[Ryan99]

Overrated (most overrated at top)

Calvin Johnson

Julio Jones

Percy Harvin

Andre Johnson

Justin Blackmon

Vernon Davis

Larry Fitzgerald

Brandon Marshall

Jay Cutler

Aaron Hernandez

Rob Gronkowski

AJ Green

LOL

Calvin is going 6th. Is he underrated? Please tell me you're in a 6 pt TD money league where you intend to draft Calvin ahead of Aaron Rodgers, Chris Johnson and Darren McFadden. AJs ADP is in the middle of the second round ... guy can't stay healthy. I like Harvin a lot and was surprised to see him on here. Most experts seem to have him pegged as a low WR2 or high WR3, and its just not worth the late fourth round pick he's going at. Hernandez is the fourth TE taken, at 48; if I'm reaching up into the fourth round for a TE, a position with a lot of depth, I want more of a sure thing. Marshall's going in the mid 3rd round, a place where I have guys like Greg Jennings and Roddy White slotted. Of course, if those guys are gone and you really want a WR maybe you take him.Do you think these guys are, in fact, underrated at their ADP? If so, why?

 

[Ilov80s]

Overrated (most overrated at top)

Calvin Johnson

Julio Jones

Percy Harvin

Andre Johnson

Justin Blackmon

Vernon Davis

Larry Fitzgerald

Brandon Marshall

Jay Cutler

Aaron Hernandez

Rob Gronkowski

AJ Green

LOL

Calvin is going 6th. Is he underrated? Please tell me you're in a 6 pt TD money league where you intend to draft Calvin ahead of Aaron Rodgers, Chris Johnson and Darren McFadden. AJs ADP is in the middle of the second round ... guy can't stay healthy. I like Harvin a lot and was surprised to see him on here. Most experts seem to have him pegged as a low WR2 or high WR3, and its just not worth the late fourth round pick he's going at. Hernandez is the fourth TE taken, at 48; if I'm reaching up into the fourth round for a TE, a position with a lot of depth, I want more of a sure thing. Marshall's going in the mid 3rd round, a place where I have guys like Greg Jennings and Roddy White slotted. Of course, if those guys are gone and you really want a WR maybe you take him.Do you think these guys are, in fact, underrated at their ADP? If so, why?

They are neither over nor under valued.

 

[Goat Herders]

I would be ecstatic to get harvin as a late wr2 or wr3.

Marshall in the 3rd? Sign me up.

 

[FDC]

Overrated (most overrated at top)

Calvin Johnson

Julio Jones

Percy Harvin

Andre Johnson

Justin Blackmon

Vernon Davis

Larry Fitzgerald

Brandon Marshall

Jay Cutler

Aaron Hernandez

Rob Gronkowski

AJ Green

LOL

Calvin is going 6th. Is he underrated? Please tell me you're in a 6 pt TD money league where you intend to draft Calvin ahead of Aaron Rodgers, Chris Johnson and Darren McFadden. AJs ADP is in the middle of the second round ... guy can't stay healthy. I like Harvin a lot and was surprised to see him on here. Most experts seem to have him pegged as a low WR2 or high WR3, and its just not worth the late fourth round pick he's going at. Hernandez is the fourth TE taken, at 48; if I'm reaching up into the fourth round for a TE, a position with a lot of depth, I want more of a sure thing. Marshall's going in the mid 3rd round, a place where I have guys like Greg Jennings and Roddy White slotted. Of course, if those guys are gone and you really want a WR maybe you take him.Do you think these guys are, in fact, underrated at their ADP? If so, why?

Going off pure projections based on numbers, I'm not sure why you don't think most of these guys aren't underrated.Calvin was a full 3 points per game better than every WR with his 1st healthy year with Stafford and in most formats scored more than all but 2 RBs. Going off pure numbers, Calvin presents the best value of the highly valued WR/RB positions.

Andre was in the top 4 in WR PPG scoring 08-10. If healthy he should out perform his 3rd round ADP.

Hernandez was 3rd in TE PPG scoring last year and is all the rage in camp this summer.

Gronk was a full 3 points better than every other TE last year. Based on pure value the only one that would compare is Calvin.

Marshall perhaps doesn't present a great statistical case for being undervalued.

 

[Ryan99]

Going off pure projections based on numbers, I'm not sure why you don't think most of these guys aren't underrated.Calvin was a full 3 points per game better than every WR with his 1st healthy year with Stafford and in most formats scored more than all but 2 RBs. Going off pure numbers, Calvin presents the best value of the highly valued WR/RB positions.Andre was in the top 4 in WR PPG scoring 08-10. If healthy he should out perform his 3rd round ADP.Hernandez was 3rd in TE PPG scoring last year and is all the rage in camp this summer.Gronk was a full 3 points better than every other TE last year. Based on pure value the only one that would compare is Calvin.Marshall perhaps doesn't present a great statistical case for being undervalued.

Yeah, but the choice isn't between Calvin Johnson and the number 2 WR, its between Calvin and the 24 or 36 WR. If I'm in that 6th slot, and I have to choose Chris Johnson or Calvin, Chris Johnson is my choice because he has a higher VAR, imo. Remember, you're not replacing a player with the next player, you're replacing him with a player way down the list. Way down the list for RB is guys like Mark Ingram and Michael Bush. For WR its Robert Meachem and Titus Young. I'd rather have Chris Johnson and one of those WRs than Calvin and one of those RBs. Same is true for TE. Gronk and Mark Ingram or Marshawn Lynch and Fred Davis? Its an easy choice for me.Andre has good per game numbers, its the number of games that puts me off. If you trust your in season management, maybe this is a good risk to take.With Hernandez, its a usage issue. I know how crafty Belichick is and I worry that Aaron's usage will be spiky, not something I want from my 4th round pick. He could just as easily be the fourth most used receiver on NE this year as the second.But anyway, yeah, good stuff. I'm looking for criticism with numbers to back it up, and you brought that.

 

[Ilov80s]

Going off pure projections based on numbers, I'm not sure why you don't think most of these guys aren't underrated.

Calvin was a full 3 points per game better than every WR with his 1st healthy year with Stafford and in most formats scored more than all but 2 RBs. Going off pure numbers, Calvin presents the best value of the highly valued WR/RB positions.

Andre was in the top 4 in WR PPG scoring 08-10. If healthy he should out perform his 3rd round ADP.

Hernandez was 3rd in TE PPG scoring last year and is all the rage in camp this summer.

Gronk was a full 3 points better than every other TE last year. Based on pure value the only one that would compare is Calvin.

Marshall perhaps doesn't present a great statistical case for being undervalued.

Yeah, but the choice isn't between Calvin Johnson and the number 2 WR, its between Calvin and the 24 or 36 WR. If I'm in that 6th slot, and I have to choose Chris Johnson or Calvin, Chris Johnson is my choice because he has a higher VAR, imo. Remember, you're not replacing a player with the next player, you're replacing him with a player way down the list. Way down the list for RB is guys like Mark Ingram and Michael Bush. For WR its Robert Meachem and Titus Young. I'd rather have Chris Johnson and one of those WRs than Calvin and one of those RBs. Same is true for TE. Gronk and Mark Ingram or Marshawn Lynch and Fred Davis? Its an easy choice for me.Andre has good per game numbers, its the number of games that puts me off. If you trust your in season management, maybe this is a good risk to take.

With Hernandez, its a usage issue. I know how crafty Belichick is and I worry that Aaron's usage will be spiky, not something I want from my 4th round pick. He could just as easily be the fourth most used receiver on NE this year as the second.

But anyway, yeah, good stuff. I'm looking for criticism with numbers to back it up, and you brought that.

You are ignoring the 6-7 other picks you would get to make before having to choose between Titus Young and Mark Ingram. With every draft pick, when you choose one position, it is at the expense of other positions. However, nothing is preventing someone from targeting good valued RBs in rounds 2 and 3. Just because you are not taking a RB in the first round, does not mean you are filling that void with Michael Bush.

 

[Ryan99]

You are ignoring the 6-7 other picks you would get to make before having to choose between Titus Young and Mark Ingram. With every draft pick, when you choose one position, it is at the expense of other positions. However, nothing is preventing someone from targeting good valued RBs in rounds 2 and 3. Just because you are not taking a RB in the first round, does not mean you are filling that void with Michael Bush.

That's true, but if you do that your whole draft is different and making comparisons becomes difficult because you have to make assumptions about an entire team worth of players, rather than just a couple players. The most basic comparison is to assume your other picks (until the replacement pick) are the same. So you compare going RB,RB,WR,TE,WR to, for instance, WR,RB,WR,TE,RB. The 2nd round RB, 3rd round WR and TE are the same in both drafts, so the only difference is WR(1)RB(5) or RB(1)WR(5). Calvin Johnson / Chris Johnson and, for instance, Reggie Bush / Jeremy Maclin. You can do this for any pair of rounds.If you're in a 2 WR, 2 RB, flex league, like I am, another thing drafting an early WR does if handcuff you a little bit. Your flex is probably going to be a RB, so taking that WR early and then having only one starting WR spot available but 3 RB spots is a slight disadvantage. If you're in a 3 WR league this doesn't apply.If you think there's a lot of value in round 3 for RBs, and you don't mind waiting on QB and TE, then going Calvin in the first round makes sense. I would rather be able to use that pick for a WR, since I think there's better value there, but of course that's totally dependent on who falls. If you know you're in a league where people heavily draft WR in 2 and 3, Calvin becomes a better round 1 pick. Remember, these overrated/underrated are based on ADP ... if your league differs significantly from ADP you have to take that into account.

 

[Banger]

Jesus...what a bunch of thread police and complainers. Guy makes a thought out post (whether you agree or not) and he gets flamed. Good thread Ryan.

 

[FDC]

You are ignoring the 6-7 other picks you would get to make before having to choose between Titus Young and Mark Ingram. With every draft pick, when you choose one position, it is at the expense of other positions. However, nothing is preventing someone from targeting good valued RBs in rounds 2 and 3. Just because you are not taking a RB in the first round, does not mean you are filling that void with Michael Bush.

Exactly. Use just 1st + 2nd round as an example and base everything 100% on last years stats and only draft WRs + RBs. I'm using current FFC ADP data here.The best PPG scoring combo is Calvin (16.6ppg) and one of the 2nd round RBs ADP(15.8) MJD(16.5) Lynch(14.4) Forte (14.4) Mathews (13.6) Fred Jackson (17.4)The worst total combination here is 30.2The best PPG scoring combo with Chris Johnson (10.7 PPG) and one of the 2nd round WRs Fitzgerald (11.8) Julio (11.5)The best total combination here is 22.5Even the best 2nd round WR combination with Arian Foster is comparable to the Calvin and 2nd round RB total (30.4 for Arian compared to 30.2 for Calvin)

 

[Ryan99]

Use just 1st + 2nd round as an example and base everything 100% on last years stats and only draft WRs + RBs. I'm using current FFC ADP data here.

Do you really think Chris Johnsons numbers are going to be the same last year? Do you think Calvin Johnsons will be? If so, you are in the minority.

 

[FDC]

Use just 1st + 2nd round as an example and base everything 100% on last years stats and only draft WRs + RBs. I'm using current FFC ADP data here.

Do you really think Chris Johnsons numbers are going to be the same last year? Do you think Calvin Johnsons will be? If so, you are in the minority.

I think CJ's should be better.I think if Calvin and Matt stay healthy, Calvin will break records. No I'm not going to predict which ones.

 

[mrip541]

SShhhhhh!! Please keep drafting JStew. Don't listen to this guy.

 

[Deamon]

Overrated (most overrated at top)

Calvin Johnson

Julio Jones

Percy Harvin

Andre Johnson

Justin Blackmon

Vernon Davis

Larry Fitzgerald

Brandon Marshall

Jay Cutler

Aaron Hernandez

Rob Gronkowski

AJ Green

LOL

Calvin is going 6th. Is he underrated? Please tell me you're in a 6 pt TD money league where you intend to draft Calvin ahead of Aaron Rodgers, Chris Johnson and Darren McFadden. AJs ADP is in the middle of the second round ... guy can't stay healthy. I like Harvin a lot and was surprised to see him on here. Most experts seem to have him pegged as a low WR2 or high WR3, and its just not worth the late fourth round pick he's going at. Hernandez is the fourth TE taken, at 48; if I'm reaching up into the fourth round for a TE, a position with a lot of depth, I want more of a sure thing. Marshall's going in the mid 3rd round, a place where I have guys like Greg Jennings and Roddy White slotted. Of course, if those guys are gone and you really want a WR maybe you take him.Do you think these guys are, in fact, underrated at their ADP? If so, why?

A guy doesn't have to be 'underrated' or 'overrated'. Those terms are used for people who are going far too early or far too late... guys who are valued in about the same round are just ranked well. Calvin is amazing... no he's not underrated, but he is worthy of a first round pick in all formats. AJ I didn't mention, I mentioned Julio.... to say that Julio jones is OVERRATED was the one that really blew me away. If anything he's one of the most undervalued wr's this year out there. Most see him as a top 3 wr this year, so unless you're taking him in the first round, he's not overrated. His ADP is mid 2nd round. If you like Harvin, why did you call him overrated? I'm not sure what 'experts' have him pegged as a low wr2 or high wr3??? You're on fbg, and he's their main analysts 8th best wr in non ppr and 10th in ppr... thats WR1. With his ADP being mid to late 4th round, getting a WR1 at that point makes this guy extremely underrated. Even if you peg him as a wr2, how can you call him overrated? Hernendez looks insane in camp and looks to be Bradys new favourite toy.... yes targets will be spread out, but if you can get Hernendez in the early 5th, that has a lot more value IMO then gronk in the early 2nd. He's great value.... but even if you don't like him this year, overrated is quite the statement on a guy like that.