RB Rankings
----Tier 1-----------
Alexander
LJ
LT
-----Tier 2----------
Tiki
Portis
Jordan
Cadillac
Jackson
#9 Edge
I cannot endorse a higher ranking until I see substantive proof that the O Line has improved. As an Arizona resident I can tell you last year's group was the worst run blocking line I have ever seen in my 20 years of watching NFL football. I am not exaggerating.
Edge has a legitimate shot at top3 this year. He will get plenty of carries.
MOP -I already spelled out that in his time in IND, Edge's workload has been bigger (per game) than any other RB over his 7 years in the league. In IND the last few years, Edge was not a Top 3 back.
Even if he somehow were to keep the massive workload he had in IND, he'd have to do BETTER in ARI.
I personally do not see him getting either A) more intense a workload, B) more production, or C) a combination of the two.
I see Edge getting somewhere between 320-345 carries for the season. I also see him getting the ball out of the backfield some. Maybe 40+ catches and that means he will touch the ball between 350-400 times. I also think he will be able to move the sticks, something the other RB there were not able to do. Longer drives=more scoring opps=less time the defense is on the field=maybe even playing with the lead...I think Edge will flourish in AZ. WHen he played on natural grass in Miami he was a beast, I'm anxious to see him back on that playing field more often.I think Edge will be one of the much better picks...he should not be there past the 1st 5 picks...if he is and its my turn to pick I would lock him up fast. He is surely going to get 1,500 yds and 10 TD...he's always good for that...he is more likely to produce 1,700-1,800 yds and 12+ TD...and he has a chance to exceed that. Look LT had amazing numbers and not that great of an OL...who has really been running in AZ...even Emmitt Smith showed that at the end of his career that you could find room to run there...he posted pretty good numbers for an old man there. 937/9 his final season...Edge can surely do better than that. Let's assume Edge only gets 3.8 a carry there. 1,200 rushing yds/320 carries. AZ RB caught over 90 balls last season. Edge can surely get 40-50 of those. At 8 yds a pice that's maybe another 350.
We are at 1,500+ yds before we even get to the TD...I think AZ has a lot of weapons and will produce some points. 1,500-1,800 yds for Edge...9-15 TD perhaps...where does that put him? Certainly top10...top5...maybe top3? Edge seems like a safer choice than the Herm Edwards led Chiefs to me...
Can't go with the flow that you all are on yet...and I highly respect you DY...highly.
We're all friends here and I am not looking to preach about Edge, the Cards, or predictability of stats.If we hit the target smack dab in the middle of what your numbers are and come up with 1650 total yards and 12 TD, that equates to 237 fantasy points. Over the past 5 years, that total would have ranked 7, 8, 8, 10, and 6 (2005-->2001).
I'm not saying Edge is not still a mid first round pick, but he will have to do leaps and bounds better than any Cardinals RB since Ottis Anderson's rookie year to get close to the Top 3 while maintaining a huge workload.
Even at 340 carries and 45 receptions, that's a DECREASE in his workload compared to last year and other seasons. Unfortunately, I have a hard time envisioning a scenario where Edge does BETTER in 2006.
He's still, IMO, a solid pick and a likely Top 10 RB (if healthy), but I personally see him out of the Top 5. Any time you can get a decent bet for a Top 10 RB in the first round you should take it, but to expect to get a lot more out of him is pretty much wishful thinking in my book.