My Projections - 5 Things I Discovered (1 Viewer)

[Instinctive]

I will (hopefully) have 3 more threads like this up by the end of the day. I still need to complete my WR and TE projections, but I have made it through RB and QB projections. In this thread, you will find the things I discovered about certain RBs in the process of doing my own projections (for the record, my league is 0.5 PPR for all positions, so the positional rankings reflect that scoring system):

QB Thread

1. I absolutely love me some Donald Brown - Projection: 256/1075/7 and 48/432/1

My thoughts on Brown are found in the Spotlight thread, but I will give a little detail here. He can catch the ball. He can move laterally, and he has decent enough speed. Luck looks competent - by no means do I expect him to set the world on fire, but I could see a Matt Ryan-esque rookie season, perhaps better from a passing standpoint. While I don't think Indy has the defense to do what Atlanta (or Baltimore) did that year and run the ball with Brown nearly 400 times, I do think he can reach 300 total touches. He's the best back on the roster, and it looks like he will have some goal line touches - as in pulled sometimes, left in at others.

Result: When I finished my projections, I found myself with Donald Brown at RB7. That's really high. If you had asked me before: "Hey, think Brown will be better than Forte? MJD? Lynch?" My intuitive answer would have been no. But when I had finished doing my projections and looking at all the factors, this is what I got. I need to get Brown.

2. Reggie Bush looks like a steal as well - Projection: 224/1073/5 and 63/567/1

I found that I expect a ton of receptions for Reggie Bush. They truly have nothing at receiver down in Miami, and I can see Bush going back to NO numbers of receptions. Well, not the 80+ he could get there, but in the neighborhood. I also ended up predicting a similar usage pattern to last year, as a runner - but not how you think. I also expect Daniel Thomas to be a decent flex/bye week fill in. With Tannehill, a solid defense, and no receiving corps, I expect a ton of running, screens, and safety valve receptions (for Bush especially here).

Result: Bush is one of the higher risk players I have...to explain, I project all players for 16 games played at what I see as the most likely outcome. Then I attach a risk factor - I include things like one year wonder risk, chances of a different usage pattern, etc...in this case, the chance that Bush is used on only 100-150 rushes is relatively high, so I am a little wary. Still, however, I am taking Bush if he is there in the 4th, and I think he's a good pick in the 3rd as well. Where did he end up in my rankings, purely on projections? RB9.

3. Darren McFadden - Projection: 264/1346/12 and 51/470/2

If you have seen my posts, you know I've got a serious hard-on for DMC this year. I don't really need to expound on this, except to say that he's one of the best in the league, and he lost his TD vulture.

Result: RB3. He's 4th overall in VBD across all positions for me, behind only Brady, Foster, and Rice.

4. I don't like Peyton Hillis as much as I thought I did - Projection: 201/824/9 and 30/205/1

These are solid flex stats, don't get me wrong. But I thought I would be wanting to overdraft Hillis and make sure he ended up on my team. It turns out that I do not. With Charles there, giving Hillis a similar usage pattern to Thomas Jones in the year he and Charles split, plus giving Hillis similar/better per touch production than his big season in Cleveland, I still don't like him that much. KC could be a playoff team, and Hillis has a nice upside factor, but my "most likely" outcome projection isn't as good as what I expected.

Result: Hillis comes in for me at RB23, and an early 4th round pick overall. I suppose that still has me overdrafting him, but given my expectations on Bush, Brown, and some wideouts, I don't see myself ever ending up with Hillis in a draft format (as opposed to an auction).

5. Matt Forte is a very safe player in my eyes - Projection: 244/1098/5 and 55/495/2

With Michael Bush there, some are discounting Forte as someone who will lose redzone and goal line touches...but he never had them to begin with! He'll get a few TDs, and there's room for upside there, but because of Forte's dual threat involvement and the lack of WRs I still perceive behind Marshall in Chicago, I think Forte is a very safe pick. I believe these projections have him at around 85 yfs per game, with .4 TDs a game. That's very nice, very steady production from a back half of the 1st round littered with mines at RB. I think Forte will show up on a lot of playoff teams this season.

Result: Forte ends up at RB10, 13th overall player for me - the big 3 QBs give more VBD than him, in my projections. If I were at the end of the first, I'd be looking at Forte for sure if he was there.

I've got class soon, but hopefully you all will see the other positions by the end of the day. No promises.

 

[hotboyz]

What are ya Brandon Lloyd projections I try to temper my projections but I got him thru the roof!

 

[Concept Coop]

1. I absolutely love me some Donald Brown - Projection: 256/1075/7 and 48/432/1

My thoughts on Brown are found in the Spotlight thread, but I will give a little detail here. He can catch the ball. He can move laterally, and he has decent enough speed. Luck looks competent - by no means do I expect him to set the world on fire, but I could see a Matt Ryan-esque rookie season, perhaps better from a passing standpoint. While I don't think Indy has the defense to do what Atlanta (or Baltimore) did that year and run the ball with Brown nearly 400 times, I do think he can reach 300 total touches. He's the best back on the roster, and it looks like he will have some goal line touches - as in pulled sometimes, left in at others.

Result: When I finished my projections, I found myself with Donald Brown at RB7. That's really high. If you had asked me before: "Hey, think Brown will be better than Forte? MJD? Lynch?" My intuitive answer would have been no. But when I had finished doing my projections and looking at all the factors, this is what I got. I need to get Brown.

Thanks for this. I don't do my own projections, just make adjustments to FBG's, so it is nice to get more points of view.That said, I can't get behind your call on Brown, at all. 0% chance he outscores Forte.

In the 9 games in which Brown got 10+ carries, he averaged 4+ YPC only 3 times. His YPC was really inflated by one game, and one run, even. He is a below average starting RB on a team that won't score much. He isn't the goal line back, and will be pulled in such positions. The new system he will be running in doesn't fit him ideally, and better suits those behind him.

RBBC is very likely, not that winning the lion's share will provide RB2 points, let alone RB7 overall.

ETA: It's not enough to be the best back on the roster, to avoid a RBBC, today. You have to be so much better, than even after 20 touches a game, for 8 weeks, you are clearly better than your fresh peers.

 

[Captain Hook]

Sorry but those projections and ranks are just WAY too high ... but enjoy your own kool aid

...and you address the risk factor for Reggie Bush but completely ignore it for DMac

 

[Team Legacy]

I enjoyed your analysis, thank you! Great stuff from the Shark Pool.

 

[hotboyz]

Sorry but those projections and ranks are just WAY too high ... but enjoy your own kool aid...and you address the risk factor for Reggie Bush but completely ignore it for DMac

What player are you saying his projections are too high for?

 

[Shutout]

1. I absolutely love me some Donald Brown - Projection: 256/1075/7 and 48/432/1

My thoughts on Brown are found in the Spotlight thread, but I will give a little detail here. He can catch the ball. He can move laterally, and he has decent enough speed. Luck looks competent - by no means do I expect him to set the world on fire, but I could see a Matt Ryan-esque rookie season, perhaps better from a passing standpoint. While I don't think Indy has the defense to do what Atlanta (or Baltimore) did that year and run the ball with Brown nearly 400 times, I do think he can reach 300 total touches. He's the best back on the roster, and it looks like he will have some goal line touches - as in pulled sometimes, left in at others.

Result: When I finished my projections, I found myself with Donald Brown at RB7. That's really high. If you had asked me before: "Hey, think Brown will be better than Forte? MJD? Lynch?" My intuitive answer would have been no. But when I had finished doing my projections and looking at all the factors, this is what I got. I need to get Brown.

Thanks for this. I don't do my own projections, just make adjustments to FBG's, so it is nice to get more points of view.That said, I can't get behind your call on Brown, at all. 0% chance he outscores Forte.

In the 9 games in which Brown got 10+ carries, he averaged 4+ YPC only 3 times. His YPC was really inflated by one game, and one run, even. He is a below average starting RB on a team that won't score much. He isn't the goal line back, and will be pulled in such positions. The new system he will be running in doesn't fit him ideally, and better suits those behind him.

RBBC is very likely, not that winning the lion's share will provide RB2 points, let alone RB7 overall.

ETA: It's not enough to be the best back on the roster, to avoid a RBBC, today. You have to be so much better, than even after 20 touches a game, for 8 weeks, you are clearly better than your fresh peers.

That is an enlightning statement. Definitely an interesting point of view to consider things from.

 

[Instinctive]

Sorry but those projections and ranks are just WAY too high ... but enjoy your own kool aid...and you address the risk factor for Reggie Bush but completely ignore it for DMac

Too high in general, or for those specific guys? I don;t know that it's kool aid, per se - I'm not trying to hype anybody. These are simply things that, after crafting and then looking at all of my projections, I discovered. I didn't know I liked Donald Brown as much as I apparently do, and the same goes for Bush.What risk factor is there for DMC? All RBs get hurt - my risk factor is exactly the same for all of them. The nature of the position is one of injury - DMC has been unluckier than most n the past couple years, but none of his injuries actually have predictive value, in my opinion.With Bush, as I tried to explain but must not have articulated very well, I see risk in that he isn't actually used the way I expect him to be. I don;t really see that risk in McFadden - he's clearly the workhorse, top back on his team.ETA: I've got class now, will try to address Coop and others' points later. Also going to be trying to finish my WR projections and post a similar thread on those as well as QBs.

 

[Modog814]

I will (hopefully) have 3 more threads like this up by the end of the day. I still need to complete my WR and TE projections, but I have made it through RB and QB projections. In this thread, you will find the things I discovered about certain RBs in the process of doing my own projections (for the record, my league is 0.5 PPR for all positions, so the positional rankings reflect that scoring system):

1. I absolutely love me some Donald Brown - Projection: 256/1075/7 and 48/432/1

2. Reggie Bush looks like a steal as well - Projection: 224/1073/5 and 63/567/1

3. Darren McFadden - Projection: 264/1346/12 and 51/470/2

4. I don't like Peyton Hillis as much as I thought I did - Projection: 201/824/9 and 30/205/1

5. Matt Forte is a very safe player in my eyes - Projection: 244/1098/5 and 55/495/2

Agree with Brown, but I think you have him a touch too high. I've got him at RB17 in my projections (PPR). I've got him with slightly more yards but only 4 rushing TD's.

Agree with Bush too.

Our McFadden projections are scary similiar. I've got him for 253/1335/10 51/474/2

I'm even more down on Hillis than you are. I have him for 5 TD's, and only 20 catches.

With Forte we're similiar in touches and TD's, but I think he gets closer to 5 ypc.

Nice to see someone else on the same page, gives me some confidence in my projections.

 

[Instinctive]

I will (hopefully) have 3 more threads like this up by the end of the day. I still need to complete my WR and TE projections, but I have made it through RB and QB projections. In this thread, you will find the things I discovered about certain RBs in the process of doing my own projections (for the record, my league is 0.5 PPR for all positions, so the positional rankings reflect that scoring system):

1. I absolutely love me some Donald Brown - Projection: 256/1075/7 and 48/432/1

2. Reggie Bush looks like a steal as well - Projection: 224/1073/5 and 63/567/1

3. Darren McFadden - Projection: 264/1346/12 and 51/470/2

4. I don't like Peyton Hillis as much as I thought I did - Projection: 201/824/9 and 30/205/1

5. Matt Forte is a very safe player in my eyes - Projection: 244/1098/5 and 55/495/2

Agree with Brown, but I think you have him a touch too high. I've got him at RB17 in my projections (PPR). I've got him with slightly more yards but only 4 rushing TD's.

Agree with Bush too.

Our McFadden projections are scary similiar. I've got him for 253/1335/10 51/474/2

I'm even more down on Hillis than you are. I have him for 5 TD's, and only 20 catches.

With Forte we're similiar in touches and TD's, but I think he gets closer to 5 ypc.

Nice to see someone else on the same page, gives me some confidence in my projections.

I think that one of the most interesting parts of this exercise was Brown and where he ended up. I feel like if you asked me to rank the RBs, I would have Brown somewhere between 15 and 20, as you do...but when I individualized each player, looked at situation and saw what came out, that's where he ended up. Last year was the first ever that Forte neared 5 ypc. I've always been down on him though, so I may still be holding a bit of bias.

 

[Instinctive]

1. I absolutely love me some Donald Brown - Projection: 256/1075/7 and 48/432/1

My thoughts on Brown are found in the Spotlight thread, but I will give a little detail here. He can catch the ball. He can move laterally, and he has decent enough speed. Luck looks competent - by no means do I expect him to set the world on fire, but I could see a Matt Ryan-esque rookie season, perhaps better from a passing standpoint. While I don't think Indy has the defense to do what Atlanta (or Baltimore) did that year and run the ball with Brown nearly 400 times, I do think he can reach 300 total touches. He's the best back on the roster, and it looks like he will have some goal line touches - as in pulled sometimes, left in at others.

Result: When I finished my projections, I found myself with Donald Brown at RB7. That's really high. If you had asked me before: "Hey, think Brown will be better than Forte? MJD? Lynch?" My intuitive answer would have been no. But when I had finished doing my projections and looking at all the factors, this is what I got. I need to get Brown.

Thanks for this. I don't do my own projections, just make adjustments to FBG's, so it is nice to get more points of view.That said, I can't get behind your call on Brown, at all. 0% chance he outscores Forte.

In the 9 games in which Brown got 10+ carries, he averaged 4+ YPC only 3 times. His YPC was really inflated by one game, and one run, even. He is a below average starting RB on a team that won't score much. He isn't the goal line back, and will be pulled in such positions. The new system he will be running in doesn't fit him ideally, and better suits those behind him.

RBBC is very likely, not that winning the lion's share will provide RB2 points, let alone RB7 overall.

ETA: It's not enough to be the best back on the roster, to avoid a RBBC, today. You have to be so much better, than even after 20 touches a game, for 8 weeks, you are clearly better than your fresh peers.

That is an enlightning statement. Definitely an interesting point of view to consider things from.

I think I see Brown as straight up better than you do, Coop. I do like that bolded statement the other poster points out though. Here's the thing with Brown: he was in a really ####ty situation last year. Extremely so. I see him as a guy with strong pedigree, who took a year or two to "get it" and by the time he did, the team collapsed around him.

Plus I don't think that much of Forte. Still. Stubbornly.

 

[bengalbuck]

1. I absolutely love me some Donald Brown - Projection: 256/1075/7 and 48/432/1

My thoughts on Brown are found in the Spotlight thread, but I will give a little detail here. He can catch the ball. He can move laterally, and he has decent enough speed. Luck looks competent - by no means do I expect him to set the world on fire, but I could see a Matt Ryan-esque rookie season, perhaps better from a passing standpoint. While I don't think Indy has the defense to do what Atlanta (or Baltimore) did that year and run the ball with Brown nearly 400 times, I do think he can reach 300 total touches. He's the best back on the roster, and it looks like he will have some goal line touches - as in pulled sometimes, left in at others.

Result: When I finished my projections, I found myself with Donald Brown at RB7. That's really high. If you had asked me before: "Hey, think Brown will be better than Forte? MJD? Lynch?" My intuitive answer would have been no. But when I had finished doing my projections and looking at all the factors, this is what I got. I need to get Brown.

Thanks for this. I don't do my own projections, just make adjustments to FBG's, so it is nice to get more points of view.That said, I can't get behind your call on Brown, at all. 0% chance he outscores Forte.

In the 9 games in which Brown got 10+ carries, he averaged 4+ YPC only 3 times. His YPC was really inflated by one game, and one run, even. He is a below average starting RB on a team that won't score much. He isn't the goal line back, and will be pulled in such positions. The new system he will be running in doesn't fit him ideally, and better suits those behind him.

RBBC is very likely, not that winning the lion's share will provide RB2 points, let alone RB7 overall.

ETA: It's not enough to be the best back on the roster, to avoid a RBBC, today. You have to be so much better, than even after 20 touches a game, for 8 weeks, you are clearly better than your fresh peers.

That is an enlightning statement. Definitely an interesting point of view to consider things from.

I think I see Brown as straight up better than you do, Coop. I do like that bolded statement the other poster points out though. Here's the thing with Brown: he was in a really ####ty situation last year. Extremely so. I see him as a guy with strong pedigree, who took a year or two to "get it" and by the time he did, the team collapsed around him.

Plus I don't think that much of Forte. Still. Stubbornly.

I agree with most of your projections. I think you are way off on Brown's number of receptions though. From what I've heard from the Indy beat writes, he's not expected to be a big part of the passing offense at all. However, if that has changed or does change, then I think you can make a solid case for the Brown love.

 

[gregjcross]

1. I absolutely love me some Donald Brown - Projection: 256/1075/7 and 48/432/1

My thoughts on Brown are found in the Spotlight thread, but I will give a little detail here. He can catch the ball. He can move laterally, and he has decent enough speed. Luck looks competent - by no means do I expect him to set the world on fire, but I could see a Matt Ryan-esque rookie season, perhaps better from a passing standpoint. While I don't think Indy has the defense to do what Atlanta (or Baltimore) did that year and run the ball with Brown nearly 400 times, I do think he can reach 300 total touches. He's the best back on the roster, and it looks like he will have some goal line touches - as in pulled sometimes, left in at others.

Result: When I finished my projections, I found myself with Donald Brown at RB7. That's really high. If you had asked me before: "Hey, think Brown will be better than Forte? MJD? Lynch?" My intuitive answer would have been no. But when I had finished doing my projections and looking at all the factors, this is what I got. I need to get Brown.

Thanks for this. I don't do my own projections, just make adjustments to FBG's, so it is nice to get more points of view.That said, I can't get behind your call on Brown, at all. 0% chance he outscores Forte.

In the 9 games in which Brown got 10+ carries, he averaged 4+ YPC only 3 times. His YPC was really inflated by one game, and one run, even. He is a below average starting RB on a team that won't score much. He isn't the goal line back, and will be pulled in such positions. The new system he will be running in doesn't fit him ideally, and better suits those behind him.

RBBC is very likely, not that winning the lion's share will provide RB2 points, let alone RB7 overall.

ETA: It's not enough to be the best back on the roster, to avoid a RBBC, today. You have to be so much better, than even after 20 touches a game, for 8 weeks, you are clearly better than your fresh peers.

You can say RBBC is very likely but you have nothing concrete to base that on as no real games have been played. Brown is easily the most mature and probably the fastest back in INDY which is why he is breaking runs and getting some attention as a clear starter -and got a high projection from the OP. Brown is also proving his worth by breaking runs like he did in December and the first time he touched the ball in pre-season. By no means is he a Ray Rice/Forte talent that you take in the first 4 rounds but he is pretty legit at this point as a contributor, and guys like Vic Ballard and Delone Carter (or whoever else is there don't seem to be very ready-- just like Brown wasn't ready his first few years when he paid his dues. Though I'll say Ballard seems like a natural for goal line. Mewelde Moore is ancient at this point.

Anything can happen but it sure seems like Brown has found a leading role.

 

[Slapdash]

Interesting take. Brown is one guy I'm trying to figure out how to slot in this year. I think he is a solid bet to outperform his ADP if he stays the guy.

 

[yankdog]

I have a gut feeling Hillis will have an RB2 year

 

[bengalbuck]

I have a gut feeling Hillis will have an RB2 year

What's your gut telling you on Charles?If you're down on JC, I can definitely see it. However, it seems like a lot of the people who like Hillis aren't all that down on Charles and just think that offense can support two top 20 RBs. I'm not sure I see that, but its possible I guess.

 

[Instinctive]

I have a gut feeling Hillis will have an RB2 year

What's your gut telling you on Charles?If you're down on JC, I can definitely see it. However, it seems like a lot of the people who like Hillis aren't all that down on Charles and just think that offense can support two top 20 RBs. I'm not sure I see that, but its possible I guess.

That was one of the points of my post actually: I too had a gut feeling that Hillis would be a steal at his ADP and perform as a RB2. But then when I sat down and actually put some numbers to my feelings, found that I wasn't actually that high on him. Why do you think he'll have a good year? What do you expect? Or are you just gonna throw a random statement with absolutely no backing or reasoning and hope to bump it at year's end and beat your chest...when that post really didn't help anyone actually decide anything about Hillis.So what are your thoughts? What is your gut telling you? Why?

 

[Funkley]

PPR is ruining fantasy football. 7 td's should not be acceptable for a "safe" RB1. Imho.

 

[Instinctive]

PPR is ruining fantasy football. 7 td's should not be acceptable for a "safe" RB1. Imho.

Well as useful as that is (hint: not at all), what do you think of him? Do you disagree with the phrasing as safe? It's totally possible that some other guys have a TD binge or something and outscore him, but yardage has much more predictive power, year to year, and he's a guy I think will not likely disappoint you, especially with the minefield of RBs in the early rounds around him.I'd love to hear your thoughts if you have anything better than "Back in the day." We can discuss general opinions and projections for players regardless of the scoring system Look forward to hearing something productive from you, so perhaps we can help get the pool back to the way it was in 04/05 when I was nought but an anonymous lurker gorging myself on the wealth of information here!

 

[GroveDiesel]

I don't really understand this "After making my predictions I found I had a guy highly rated" thing. You were the one making the projections. You obviously like him enough to give him big numbers. How are you then surprised by that? Are you making general predictions for each team and then assigning certain percentages to each positional player based on who you like to take certain percentages? Otherwise I don't understand being surprised by your own projection.

 

[Funkley]

PPR makes marginal "star" players look better. Running backs who get replaced at the goalline should not need to be helped along artificially by the scoring format. Sorry. 60 yards is not as good as a td. Sorry again. I am not advocating the good ol' days but td's should be the baseline, not an added bonus. Imho.

 

[Instinctive]

I don't really understand this "After making my predictions I found I had a guy highly rated" thing. You were the one making the projections. You obviously like him enough to give him big numbers. How are you then surprised by that? Are you making general predictions for each team and then assigning certain percentages to each positional player based on who you like to take certain percentages? Otherwise I don't understand being surprised by your own projection.

To use Donald Brown: I wasn't surprised that he was high, but rather by how high. I wouldn't have ranked him ahead of at least 5 or 6, maybe even 10 RBs if you just gave me a list of names and told me to put them in order.But then when I actually sat down and went through each player's individual situation, history, etc...I ended up discovering some things about them that I didn't expect. I didn't realize just how much I like Donald Brown until I sat down and actually looked at his entire situation and the factors involved with making a solid projection of his stats. The resulting stats placed him higher than I expected - I really don't quite get how you are unable to understand this concept.I'm simply trying to show the value of the exercise of crafting projections. Throughout the offseason, I haven't had projections, I've had qualitative analysis of things like "I think Brown will be good" or "He's undervalued." Or look at Hillis - I thought he was undervalued, but then when I sat down, looked at everything about his situation, and came up with an actual projections...the actual numbers I see him achieving really don't make him undervalued. That's not something I expected - I thought (when I sat down to do projections) that I would end up with numbers telling me "Hey, make sure you draft Hillis." That's not what happened though, which is surprising. Does that make more sense?I'm not surprised that I like a guy - I'm surprised at just how much. Or I found that I actually don't like a guy. And no, I don't make general predictions and then assign percentages. I look at historical splits, historical production, surrounding talent, new situations...and then I take the result and make sure they fit within a team context (like making sure I don't have Charles and Hillis combining for 700 carries or something.

 

[Instinctive]

PPR makes marginal "star" players look better. Running backs who get replaced at the goalline should not need to be helped along artificially by the scoring format. Sorry. 60 yards is not as good as a td. Sorry again. I am not advocating the good ol' days but td's should be the baseline, not an added bonus. Imho.

That's certainly a valid opinion.Do you have anything useful to add to the actual discussion of the players?

 

[Black&Gold]

Watched Brown this past weekend against the Steelers. I was high on him in the Spring. I like his situation. I wasn't impressed with him though. He looks like an average RB and I think their O-Line is terrible. Luck will be running for his life most weeks.

 

[Funkley]

PPR makes marginal "star" players look better. Running backs who get replaced at the goalline should not need to be helped along artificially by the scoring format. Sorry. 60 yards is not as good as a td. Sorry again. I am not advocating the good ol' days but td's should be the baseline, not an added bonus. Imho.

That's certainly a valid opinion.Do you have anything useful to add to the actual discussion of the players?

My only issue is considering Forte "safe" and clearly the scoring format is what makes him safe. Not the player or his circumstance. If anything, I think you are not accounting for Bush as much as you should be.

 

[We Tigers]

PPR makes marginal "star" players look better. Running backs who get replaced at the goalline should not need to be helped along artificially by the scoring format. Sorry. 60 yards is not as good as a td. Sorry again. I am not advocating the good ol' days but td's should be the baseline, not an added bonus. Imho.

That's certainly a valid opinion.Do you have anything useful to add to the actual discussion of the players?

My only issue is considering Forte "safe" and clearly the scoring format is what makes him safe. Not the player or his circumstance. If anything, I think you are not accounting for Bush as much as you should be.

He's had at least 1400 in every season, even last year's 12-game season--he's definitely pretty safe as a top pick. His function has been that of a younger Steven Jackson: a pile of yardage, a handful of TDs. He doesn't need any PPR bonuses to still be a very good pick if he pans out.

 

[Funkley]

PPR makes marginal "star" players look better. Running backs who get replaced at the goalline should not need to be helped along artificially by the scoring format. Sorry. 60 yards is not as good as a td. Sorry again. I am not advocating the good ol' days but td's should be the baseline, not an added bonus. Imho.

That's certainly a valid opinion.Do you have anything useful to add to the actual discussion of the players?

My only issue is considering Forte "safe" and clearly the scoring format is what makes him safe. Not the player or his circumstance. If anything, I think you are not accounting for Bush as much as you should be.

He's had at least 1400 in every season, even last year's 12-game season--he's definitely pretty safe as a top pick. His function has been that of a younger Steven Jackson: a pile of yardage, a handful of TDs. He doesn't need any PPR bonuses to still be a very good pick if he pans out.

Again, this assumes format. In my league he is a marginal RB 1 and no where near safe. But 135 total yards and no td's would get you 4 points for the week. Its all good, just a matter of format. In PPR, 1 point for every ten leagues I can see where he's fine. In my league Bush might give him a run for the money if he gets a lot of goalline looks and some ok yardage weeks.

 

[DevilintheDetail]

PPR makes marginal "star" players look better. Running backs who get replaced at the goalline should not need to be helped along artificially by the scoring format. Sorry. 60 yards is not as good as a td. Sorry again. I am not advocating the good ol' days but td's should be the baseline, not an added bonus. Imho.

That's certainly a valid opinion.Do you have anything useful to add to the actual discussion of the players?

My only issue is considering Forte "safe" and clearly the scoring format is what makes him safe. Not the player or his circumstance. If anything, I think you are not accounting for Bush as much as you should be.

He's had at least 1400 in every season, even last year's 12-game season--he's definitely pretty safe as a top pick. His function has been that of a younger Steven Jackson: a pile of yardage, a handful of TDs. He doesn't need any PPR bonuses to still be a very good pick if he pans out.

Again, this assumes format. In my league he is a marginal RB 1 and no where near safe. But 135 total yards and no td's would get you 4 points for the week. Its all good, just a matter of format. In PPR, 1 point for every ten leagues I can see where he's fine. In my league Bush might give him a run for the money if he gets a lot of goalline looks and some ok yardage weeks.

The only reason you can really be very optimistic about Brown is if you see him as a clear, 3-down back that is getting the goal line carries. The Colts have at least two other RBs that are going to get touches - M. Moore is going to see 3rd down work for sure. They really like Ballard, too, and he or Carter are likely going to get goal line carries. So, I think your underlying assumptions about Brown's role in that offense are probably off pretty significantly.

 

[Funkley]

Lol

 

[We Tigers]

PPR makes marginal "star" players look better. Running backs who get replaced at the goalline should not need to be helped along artificially by the scoring format. Sorry. 60 yards is not as good as a td. Sorry again. I am not advocating the good ol' days but td's should be the baseline, not an added bonus. Imho.

That's certainly a valid opinion.Do you have anything useful to add to the actual discussion of the players?

My only issue is considering Forte "safe" and clearly the scoring format is what makes him safe. Not the player or his circumstance. If anything, I think you are not accounting for Bush as much as you should be.

He's had at least 1400 in every season, even last year's 12-game season--he's definitely pretty safe as a top pick. His function has been that of a younger Steven Jackson: a pile of yardage, a handful of TDs. He doesn't need any PPR bonuses to still be a very good pick if he pans out.

Again, this assumes format. In my league he is a marginal RB 1 and no where near safe. But 135 total yards and no td's would get you 4 points for the week. Its all good, just a matter of format. In PPR, 1 point for every ten leagues I can see where he's fine. In my league Bush might give him a run for the money if he gets a lot of goalline looks and some ok yardage weeks.

So your plan was to come into a thoughtful thread and kvetch about how a given player would suck in PPR/your system, without revealing that you play in an extremely unorthodox outlier league where apparently even 30 yards is worth less than 1 point. Brilliant distraction, and not at all disingenuous...Back on topic: I think my biggest uncertainty on this list is the workload assigned to some players. Brown's looked good in the preseason but I dunno about him getting that many opportunities. Still, he probably cracks value even with 200 carries. That's one thing I've tried to identify in the offseason--guys like Brown (and for me, Ingram) who I think have upside but probably have 180-200 carries locked down unless they really, really bomb--and perhaps will still get them even then.

 

[Instinctive]

PPR makes marginal "star" players look better. Running backs who get replaced at the goalline should not need to be helped along artificially by the scoring format. Sorry. 60 yards is not as good as a td. Sorry again. I am not advocating the good ol' days but td's should be the baseline, not an added bonus. Imho.

That's certainly a valid opinion.Do you have anything useful to add to the actual discussion of the players?

My only issue is considering Forte "safe" and clearly the scoring format is what makes him safe. Not the player or his circumstance. If anything, I think you are not accounting for Bush as much as you should be.

He's had at least 1400 in every season, even last year's 12-game season--he's definitely pretty safe as a top pick. His function has been that of a younger Steven Jackson: a pile of yardage, a handful of TDs. He doesn't need any PPR bonuses to still be a very good pick if he pans out.

Again, this assumes format. In my league he is a marginal RB 1 and no where near safe. But 135 total yards and no td's would get you 4 points for the week. Its all good, just a matter of format. In PPR, 1 point for every ten leagues I can see where he's fine. In my league Bush might give him a run for the money if he gets a lot of goalline looks and some ok yardage weeks.

The only reason you can really be very optimistic about Brown is if you see him as a clear, 3-down back that is getting the goal line carries. The Colts have at least two other RBs that are going to get touches - M. Moore is going to see 3rd down work for sure. They really like Ballard, too, and he or Carter are likely going to get goal line carries. So, I think your underlying assumptions about Brown's role in that offense are probably off pretty significantly.

1. We're talking about Forte in everything you quoted. @Funkley - I get what you're saying, but most leagues are 1/10 and either PPR or not. In either of those formats, he's very safe. I'm not the kind of guy who's going to tailor my posts and advice to a dramatically less prevalent league structure that only gives 4 points for almost 140 total yards. I think you probably knew that, you've been around long enough. For the assumption of the wide majority of leagues, Forte's a very safe pick, in 0, .5, or 1 PPR leagues.2. At the guy who responded to the Forte stuff with Donald Brown comments: Mewelde Moore averages 19 receptions a season over the past few. Brown has averaged 16. I would not at all be surprised to see Moore cut and the Colts carry 3 RBs. Carrying four is a lot, especially a washed up one like Mewelde. It's interesting that you mention goal line carries, because my projections assume Brown gets pulled at the goal line most of the time - only 7 TDs on the year, and only 3 I expect to come from inside of 5 yards or so. In addition, Brown is the guy who got goal line looks in the most recent preseason action, taken FWIW. Carter has had fumbling issues - the #1 fastest way to get pulled from the goal line situations.

WHo likes Ballard? Who is they? Have you spoken to them? I haven't seen much from any of the beat writers or other people on Twitter, ESPN, or other news sources like Rotoworld saying very much, if anything about how they love Ballard and he (the 5th round back) is going to eat into Brown's work a ton on 3rd down and at the goal line.

Of course if you're really just presenting your opinion and have no connection to the Colts or the information, that is something you could probably include in your post. Something like, "I think..." or "In my opinion..."

You do a good job of that in your last sentence though (not sarcasm). I appreciate the comment, I just think you underlying assumptions about the rest of the Colts offense are probably off pretty significantly.

 

[Instinctive]

Back on topic: I think my biggest uncertainty on this list is the workload assigned to some players. Brown's looked good in the preseason but I dunno about him getting that many opportunities. Still, he probably cracks value even with 200 carries. That's one thing I've tried to identify in the offseason--guys like Brown (and for me, Ingram) who I think have upside but probably have 180-200 carries locked down unless they really, really bomb--and perhaps will still get them even then.

Yeah, that's certainly a valid point. These are only my thoughts, my opinions, based on what I have seen, heard, read, and analyzed. I'm not a film guru or one of the insane guys who claims to "watch all the gametape" and scout the talent...I just project what I think will play out based on all the information I have.And I like Ingram too. My projections end up putting him on my team pretty much everywhere, regardless of format. He also has a lot of upside if injuries occur and such.

 

[Funkley]

I meant no offense or derail. I guess I didnt realize how "outlier" basic/combo leagues had become.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I know we disagree some but I like this thread and the effort.

 

[FDC]

I know we disagree some but I like this thread and the effort.

+1

 

[davearm]

Here's the thing with Brown: he was in a really ####ty situation last year. Extremely so. I see him as a guy with strong pedigree, who took a year or two to "get it" and by the time he did, the team collapsed around him.

Is the situation really all that different now? I think you'd be hard pressed to argue it is. Andrew Luck isn't going to save the Colts from being pretty bad.

 

[FDC]

Andrew Luck isn't going to save the Colts from being pretty bad.

I think he will. Not a playoff team but not 2-14 bad.

 

[Modog814]

Andrew Luck isn't going to save the Colts from being pretty bad.

I think he will. Not a playoff team but not 2-14 bad.

Agreed. Don't see how they could possibly be worse.

 

[pollardsvision]

Good threads.

I'm curious, how high were you expecting to find yourself on Hillis?

Because 200 carries, 9 TDs, and 30 catches sounds plenty high for a guy backing up a 1st round back.

Don't get me wrong, I like Hillis, but I think that's on the optimistic side of projecting him (barring a catastrophe for Charles).

 

[Instinctive]

Good threads.I'm curious, how high were you expecting to find yourself on Hillis?Because 200 carries, 9 TDs, and 30 catches sounds plenty high for a guy backing up a 1st round back. Don't get me wrong, I like Hillis, but I think that's on the optimistic side of projecting him (barring a catastrophe for Charles).

I'm also down on Charles. Although I don't think you understand how Charles gets his points...look at the other RB touches during the two huge years that Charles had and tell me what you see, we'll see if you find what I found.