As far as Allen goes he could easily be a drop based on performance and trends. His first 3 games he saw targets of 10, 15, 17. Pretty unsustainable numbers. Since week 3 his targets regressed to 5, 6, 6, 11, 10, and 4.
so what I’m seeing here is otherworldly target numbers weeks 2 & 3, and WR1 targets weeks 1, 7 & 8, with high end WR2 targets the other weeks (5, 6, 6) with one sub-par (4).
even if the results weren’t there, I’m not sure In what universe a player with 84 targets through 9 weeks would be a drop in any format or any roster size.
weeks 2/3 were obviously unsustainable, but saying a player “regressed” from 17 targets (!!) to 6, 10 or 11 seems like a challenging argument to make.
in the last six weeks he has combined in points to equal his week 3 box score.
So projecting forward which Keenan Allen is this years Keenan Allen?
Im comfortable calling him nothing more than a brand name this year.
coincidentally that’s right about when they lost their pro bowl starting center and shifted their OL around.
As I’ve said before in here, context matters. That’s a situation that had an immediate impact and changed everything the Chargers did. They said they had to simplify the entire playbook because they had several players playing out of position.
but as time passes they’re making adjustments & adapting to their new reality. They’re getting some of that downfield action working again.
There’s an old adage that past performance is a poor indicator of future success. To me that’s pretty clearly the case with Allen. You could be correct - maybe he’s a WR2 or 3 ROS.
But because he has the
potential to be a weekly difference maker; and because his targets are still respectable enough to achieve that on a weekly basis; he’s definitely a hold. It’s not even a consideration to drop because 1. Someone would happily buy low on him in leagues over 8 teams, and 2. Because if you drop him you’ll likely end up getting beaten by him in the playoffs.
A better name would be Larry Fitzgerald, who’s targets have tanked, and who’s seemingly become an afterthought. That said, I have him on my bench as a WR5 for BYEs. Boom or bust for sure, and no one’s gonna trade me for him, but I don’t even consider Fitz a drop because he is potentially more useful than the rags on the FA list. But he’s a back of the bench player with a big name, so I’d say he qualifies if a team doesn’t have any use for him.