Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
NBA Fanduel (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gustavo Fring
- Start date
freeannyong
Footballguy
Yeah hard to not have lavine bud and Martin with them only having 7 guys. I am rolling with those 3, harden, gobert, Evans.
Not really wanting to roll the dice on Davis
Not really wanting to roll the dice on Davis
Apple Jack
Footballguy
Congratulations Sean Kirpatrick!
Still threw a few Brow lineups in there just figuring his ownership would be low.
Still threw a few Brow lineups in there just figuring his ownership would be low.
Last edited by a moderator:
Apple Jack
Footballguy
I look into the finance box just to check my status. I look into the microscope and see a Gorgui apparatus.
freeannyong
Footballguy
Gobert and Hood sunk my lineup. I think everyone that cashed in my double up had Dieng at C
Apple Jack
Footballguy
Probably had to have Harden and Dieng or Wright at C.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
What, Westbrook scares you or something?rdubs30 said:
Funny how matchups work. I'm a pseudo Grizz guy and I'd rather see OKC as an opponent than most other teams would. The Grizz are built to deal with that better than most. We can't handle SA for crap though.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Does Kyrie get much of a bump w/ Lebron likely out?
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
freeannyong
Footballguy
Yeah with LeBron out they are going to ask Kyrie to facilitate more, which is not his strong point. Not sure LeBron out helps him much. I would think it helps Love more
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
He's had his biggest games w/Lebron playing.
I think you are both right, but Love scares me. I may just avoid the whole thing, not like there aren't other options.
Not that I have found, but I haven't looked much. I think they have to be playing that particular day.
Last edited by a moderator:
Keerock
Footballguy
freeannyong
Footballguy
Good to see some mathbox tonight!
southbound
Footballguy
Galloway/Dragic
wade/Foye
WChandler/Pierce
Faried/Griffin
Whiteside
Lets go heats/nugget ot!
wade/Foye
WChandler/Pierce
Faried/Griffin
Whiteside
Lets go heats/nugget ot!
rdubs30
Footballguy
Hey guys,
FYI, the projections on daily fantasy nerd have been updated and are more accurate than our previous default projections based on season and last 5 game averages. Here’s a screenshot of Monday’s FanDuel pearson correlations to compare the accuracy of these projection sources: BM, FC, NF, Swish, RW, and the new daily fantasy nerd projections listed as “dfn Proj”. The closer a value is to 1, the more accurate the projection source is.
You can see that the daily fantasy nerd projections are in the same ballpark as the other major projection sources. The Proj row is a weighted average Eric created using 25% BM, 25% FC, 25% Swish, and 25% dfn Proj. You can see that it had the highest performing projection and highlights the advantages of using weighted averages. Keep in mind that this was just one day’s worth of games, so the sample size is small.
A large caveat we’d like to mention is that the new daily fantasy nerd projections do not at the moment account for injury updates and news of who is starting and being benched. To do so requires significant investment that we don’t have at the moment. It is exciting though to see that these projections are performing well despite the absence of injury and start updates.
-r
FYI, the projections on daily fantasy nerd have been updated and are more accurate than our previous default projections based on season and last 5 game averages. Here’s a screenshot of Monday’s FanDuel pearson correlations to compare the accuracy of these projection sources: BM, FC, NF, Swish, RW, and the new daily fantasy nerd projections listed as “dfn Proj”. The closer a value is to 1, the more accurate the projection source is.
You can see that the daily fantasy nerd projections are in the same ballpark as the other major projection sources. The Proj row is a weighted average Eric created using 25% BM, 25% FC, 25% Swish, and 25% dfn Proj. You can see that it had the highest performing projection and highlights the advantages of using weighted averages. Keep in mind that this was just one day’s worth of games, so the sample size is small.
A large caveat we’d like to mention is that the new daily fantasy nerd projections do not at the moment account for injury updates and news of who is starting and being benched. To do so requires significant investment that we don’t have at the moment. It is exciting though to see that these projections are performing well despite the absence of injury and start updates.
-r
Apple Jack
Footballguy
Alex Len is a pita.
ETA: Now active. Glad I hustled and removed Wright from most of my entries. Even if it meant missing out on some ridiculous overlays.
ETA: Now active. Glad I hustled and removed Wright from most of my entries. Even if it meant missing out on some ridiculous overlays.
Last edited by a moderator:
JShare87
Footballguy
Yea, I always stay away from Hardon.
southbound
Footballguy
Won a seat into this Wednesday's $25 Million$ Megaslam. Hoping I don't screw it up too badly. Have hit over 300 a few times but seems I wind up in the 260-280 range more often than not.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Pierce murdered my lineup yesterday. I had a pretty nice one going but for that turd.
Yeah, I know the math has had him up there for a couple games but I'm always too scared to play him. If it was on my advice, I duly apologize. I'm undecided on whether I should adjust the math sometimes on my personal feelings.
(Everyone over age 35 gets an automatic -5!) That's not age discrimination is it?
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Nah, it ain't on you. I was looking at him and you had him highly rated so I just went w/ it. Thought the narrative worked too. C'est la vie.
Apple Jack
Footballguy
looks like they've rearranged the swat and shot sizes.
cj miles early foul trouble screwed me. we'll see how it shakes out, but he's in most of my lu's.
cj miles early foul trouble screwed me. we'll see how it shakes out, but he's in most of my lu's.
Apple Jack
Footballguy
They're obviously pushing the shot. I'm guessing all the overlays recently in the shot #2 had something to do with this move. I'm all for it.
FD's focus on app releases has really left the desktop site antiquated. There is no reason to not have the ability to sort your entries on the live page or see the scores at each payout threshold at a given time on the live scoring page. Those should have been in the launch version. Contacted support and they said they are currently working on an update. Wonder how long they've been saying that. Tablets are great for reading; I hate navigating or anything requiring typing on them.
FD's focus on app releases has really left the desktop site antiquated. There is no reason to not have the ability to sort your entries on the live page or see the scores at each payout threshold at a given time on the live scoring page. Those should have been in the launch version. Contacted support and they said they are currently working on an update. Wonder how long they've been saying that. Tablets are great for reading; I hate navigating or anything requiring typing on them.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
What's actually sadder is that I roll him out again with the "he can't possibly suck that badly 2 games in a row" rationale. Paul's been proving people wrong his entire career.Tennessee_ATO said:
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
anyone playing the megaslam tomorrow? I'm thinking of doing ~5 entries.
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
rdubs30
Footballguy
If there weren't so many value plays today it would be easier to fade Westbrook. Originally had my lineup without him...now he's in though.
southbound
Footballguy
I dont have him in my cash lineups...
Lillard...rjackson
Derozan...kpope
Gay...tprince
Noel...trobinson
Kanter
Liked my lineup better without him in it.
freeannyong
Footballguy
Past two days the double ups have filled so fast. I've been missing out.
southbound
Footballguy
What would be the better route to take, playing a bunch of head 2 heads or 50/50's? I've been getting into a ton of H2H the last few days. I'm pretty much break even since I started the other week, just enjoy having something on the games and have been playing 50-70 $1 H2H matches. I usually throw an entry into a $1 or $2 big GPP to just because.
snellman
Footballguy
I have always had better luck playing the 50/50s and double ups, but that could be just me. Been on a terrible cold streak lately though so take it for what it's worth.
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
It's been mixed for me. Some nights I'm thankful for h2hs against knuckleheads who somehow cobble together worse teams than mine. That has happened a heck of a lot actually. I cash often enough with teams that would not cash in 50-50s that I always mix the contests pretty evenly.
southbound
Footballguy
Would playing like 50 h2h reduce variance? I've seen guys with 400 h2h over every buy in every day of the week. Guess I'm just thinking you could finish below the half mark and still not lose completely.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Search in the Shark Tank. The numbers guys did a pretty good analysis of variance and H2H vs. 50/50 play for football if memory serves. Dodds's blog also broke down his ROI for each type of game at each price point based. His lowest ROI was H2H by far. Based on all of the information I read, I bailed on H2H entirely for football and never looked back.
I realize that football isn't necessarily the same as hoops, but it might help as a starting point for some analysis. At the end of the day, data is king. The guys playing regularly on this thread ought to be able to quickly find real-life answers to these types of questions in their collective data.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I've been stuck in a rut for a few weeks myself -- enough to get a little back in some 50/50's, but not near enough to offset my losses. I consistently have 1 turd and 1 semi-turd every day with 3-4 guys who go off. The net effect is a "so close" lineup that is generally worth about the same as a complete stinker.
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
same. My salvation has been playing very lightly since giving back too generously.
Similar threads
