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NCAA Week 11 (1 Viewer)

D

Devin Knotts

Footballguy
Hard to believe there are only 3 more weeks before the conference championship games.

For the Tuesday-Wednesday slates we will have a write-up on the blogs.

Some interesting games this weekend and some key things to watch:

TCU- They get a premiere matchup against Kansas, and with Doctson potentially out, some receivers I'm liking right off the bat are Shaun Nixon and Kavonte Turpin.

Ohio State- J.T. Barrett's price will be interesting against Illinois, as if one of the pricing models undervalues him based on being suspended last week it provides a good opportunity.

Texas Tech- Kansas State has one of the worst pass defenses in college football, so this opens up what should be a good opportunity for Mahomes and company.

Cincinnati vs Tulsa- If this game is on the slate, Gunner Kiel is one of the premiere options as Tulsa's defense is horrible.

Finally, Oklahoma, Baylor- will be interesting to see Stidham's pricing and Coleman might be a must play if he is under 10k.

 
The Fanduel midweek slates are bizarre. Tue/Wed, Wed/Thu, and Thu/Fri.

For the later week slates Thomas at QB is really interesting, fairly safe floor at a complete punt price, and it allows for the better WR like Juju and Lewis.

 
That covers basically everything I was looking at on Fanduel (I think its the same games this week?). I was looking at Kroll from CMU as a 3rd WR to fill out the lineup. Hes right there with Anthony Rice on receptions, but Rice has been a little better the last two weeks while Kroll was better the rest of the season. I dont mind admitting I havent watched much Chippewa football this year and I dont have target numbers for them. I was thinking Rice's numbers could be more of an anomaly since Kroll was the more productive WR for the first 75% of the season and hes doing for some positive regression. Thats based entirely on looking at their game logs, anything youve seen that wouldnt be showing up there?

 
NixonMask said:
That covers basically everything I was looking at on Fanduel (I think its the same games this week?). I was looking at Kroll from CMU as a 3rd WR to fill out the lineup. Hes right there with Anthony Rice on receptions, but Rice has been a little better the last two weeks while Kroll was better the rest of the season. I dont mind admitting I havent watched much Chippewa football this year and I dont have target numbers for them. I was thinking Rice's numbers could be more of an anomaly since Kroll was the more productive WR for the first 75% of the season and hes doing for some positive regression. Thats based entirely on looking at their game logs, anything youve seen that wouldnt be showing up there?
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Our FanDuel writeup is now live, we have Kroll one spot ahead of Rice. I have only watched two CMU games this season. To me if you're doing multiple lineups on FanDuel, it maybe a situation where I would take a stand in cash games, and diversify in GPP's.

 
How viable of an option is it to punt TE to say a 2K TE like Lee, in order to field a top flight option like Davis or Braverman at the wr2 spot.

 
It's an interesting strategy, as at that point it doesn't really matter what the guy you punted with does, it is all about fading the McCord or Weiser. Essentially all you're worried about is the differential between a player such as Golladay and Davis or Golladay and Braverman.

Could it work? Absolutely, it is an interesting strategy for both cash games and GPP's, as even in cash while starting down 4 or 5 is not ideal, it is not the end of the world. Now what could kill you is if Mccord scores a touchdown then it is almost impossible to come back from. So it is a risky move, that I would consider for GPP's, but cash games I don't know if I have the stones to do it.



 
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Yeah he was definitely not good at all. Was highly owned and Hunt had success against them, but for someone who averaged 7.5 yards per carry heading into this game it was very disheartening that he had 2.6 ypc. He was very highly owned though (50% on my DK double ups, and about 70% of my FD head to heads). Definitely hurts a lot more on DraftKings than FanDuel as on FanDuel everyone is going to be picking bottom barrel running backs.

 
Flushed a lot of money down the crapper on CMU's 26 yards of rushing from their RBs and Ben McFour and a cloud of bust.

 
Are you guys able to do write ups for the other mid week slates? Mostly interested in your take on Thomas at QB for Georgia tech.

 
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We will have one for Thursday-Friday slate. Justin Thomas is a high risk option for me this week. For tonight would have Ryan Graham as my top punt play if I was going to punt at quarterback on this slate.

 
I originally had

Thomas
Taylor
McGuire
Willoughby
Ford

R. Lewis
Weiser

but you talked me into it. Running with this tonight:

Terrell
Taylor
Franklin
Lewis
Ford
Burbrink
Weiser

 
I'm currently at this. Debating between Johnson/Lee or Terrell/Weiser.

The only issue is this is almost identical to my lineup from yesterday.

Johnson

Franklin

Taylor

Davis

Golladay

Burbrink

Lee

 
I am passing on this slate. Need to see how my tuesday games play out. If I come out ahead I will bite for more action tomorrow. I don't want my good nfl week to go to waste. However may be hard to dig out of the hole after last night. Time will tell.

 
Huge overlay tonite. Had 6 lineups in a $2 gpp and threw got 5 of those into a $5 gpp in the last 10 seconds that only looked half full. Looks like finishing int he top 1/3 will net a double up.

 
What was going to with Davis when their games werent televised? Hes clearly a better WR than Braverman, but the numbers werent even close. I cant wait for A.I. for alot of reasons, but rational coaching is easily at the top of the list.

 
Taylor is a situation that is odd. Obviously the game script doesn't help him at all, but he does have the most carries on this team. This slate was all about wide receivers, and to do that you had to take cheap running backs (Davis, Golladay, Lewis, Sebastian Smith, Kroll, all great receivers). Northern Illinois is 60th in the NCAA against the run and just came off a game against Toledo where they allowed 291 yards against the run.

In most of my head to heads, people had Swanson and either Taylor or Franklin. Bogan was the ideal play in hindsight. These mid-week slates are tough because there's a clear direction on how to attack them. None of the cheap running backs outside of Bogan paid off this week. Coppett has 2, Swanson got 6, we'll see what Taylor ends up with, Franklin currently has 0. At the same time, all of the top wide receiver options have paid off except for Braverman.

 
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Any word on Franklin being abducted by aliens? Theres just nothing on it, still listed as RB1 on there depth chart, but hasnt seen the field all night

 
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He fumbled last week and was benched. I've never seen a fumble carry over for two weeks, but it's either an injury or maybe he fumbled multiple times during practice?

In other news Jordan Johnson breaks a long run ughhh. Taylor still out carrying him, and got the first crack, so hopefully he breaks one...

 
Well the way I look at it cfb dfs you fool me once shame on you, cfb dfs fool me twice and three times shame on me. I let a goood nfl week talk me into trying it out again cause it will be different. Same bat story, same bat channel.

 
Travis greene another 3td game. Thought I had him in one game. It was Bogan not Greene. Oops.

 
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Here's my lineup on Thursday-Friday.

Justin Thomas

Ronald Jones

Travon McMillian

Juju Smith

Nelson Spruce

Al Riles

Sean Irwin

Elijah McGuire is going to be popular and I have a secondary lineup that has McGuire instead of Jones and Ford instead of Riles, but let me explain why I didn't go with him. He has only gone over 100 yards rushing twice this season, and over his last two games he faced two of the worst run defenses in college football (#103 Georgia State and #118 Louisiana Monroe). Both defenses going into the game averaged giving up over 200 yards per game, and McGuire was only able to have 3.1 YPC and 3.5 YPC in the respective game for a total of 59 and 73 yards. This week he once again faces a defense who has given up over 200 yards rushing, but with him having games with 2.5, 3.1, and 3.5 yard per carry I have a difficult time starting him this week.

This is preliminary, I am going to be working on this through most of tomorrow.

 
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Devin Knotts said:
Here's my lineup on Thursday-Friday.

Justin Thomas

Ronald Jones

Travon McMillian

Juju Smith

Nelson Spruce

Al Riles

Sean Irwin

Elijah McGuire is going to be popular and I have a secondary lineup that has McGuire instead of Jones and Ford instead of Riles, but let me explain why I didn't go with him. He has only gone over 100 yards rushing twice this season, and over his last two games he faced two of the worst run defenses in college football (#103 Georgia State and #118 Louisiana Monroe). Both defenses going into the game averaged giving up over 200 yards per game, and McGuire was only able to have 3.1 YPC and 3.5 YPC in the respective game for a total of 59 and 73 yards. This week he once again faces a defense who has given up over 200 yards rushing, but with him having games with 2.5, 3.1, and 3.5 yard per carry I have a difficult time starting him this week.

This is preliminary, I am going to be working on this through most of tomorrow.
Click to expand...
Good stuff. I was shocked at his price when I looked at the stats.

 
Good luck the rest of way the guys. I just dont have a good hold on the college game, my 1/19 record the last 3 weeks made that clear. I still wanna learn so will probably make an offline line up each week and see how I did on my own. Get a fresh start next year.

 
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I'm currently on

Kessler

McGuire

Mcmillian

Smith

Spruce

Rodgers

McNamara

Reading your thoughts maybe swap McGuire with Jones and Rodgers with Phillips or juene?

 
I'm bouncing back and forth on this one.

If you think about Elijah McGuire what you get is that his projection is high because his statistical mean is high. The issue is that his standard deviation might be the highest of any running back in college football. The matchup is great, but the last two matchups have been great as well.

I currently have McGuire in just because he is going to be so highly owned, that I would rather block my opponent and not lose all of my games on the chance he goes for 180 total yards and two touchdowns.

Here is my lineup right now

Thomas

McGuire

Jones

Riles

Ford

Spruce

Everett

Our IVC's and projections are posted. As you can see McGuire is the highest scoring RB, but McMillian and Jones are not too far behind him.

FanDuel-

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=tremblay_CFB15FanDuel11

DraftKings

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=tremblay_CFB15DraftKings11

 
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Well I went 50/50 with McGuire although I should have stuck with my analysis and not worried about what other people were doing. The good news is like I had imagined he was close to 100% owned.

My 50% lineups that did not have McGuire are in phenomenal shape, Riles, Everett both performing well so far

 
Geez, I'll take it but McGuire is not good. Thank god for coaches that go back to RBs even when they lose yards at the goalline.

 
Yeah I only started him because I didn't want the Travis Greene effect again where one player can ruin all of your lineups. Like I mentioned earlier today McGuire has one of the highest variance in college football. Three straight games of 150+, and looking like three straight under 75.

 
That's why you're the expert. I faded him on my only other GPP and have him on my fantasy aces lineups. I think I caught alot of overlay, but don't check scores midgame anymore, I'll find out tonight

 
Good luck tonight, I'll be rooting for you and everyone else here. I care more about you guys winning than me winning. Glad to see McGuire get in the end zone for your sake and anyone else who may have started him.

Not going to take all the credit on it, as the same metric that told me to fade McGuire has burned me a few times this season.

 
Projections are never going to be right all the time, but what youre doing is impressive. I do think theres still some improvements that can be made in offering context to some of the projections (Like you did today with McGuire) Personally, I watch maybe 3-4 games a week and often only know who Im playing based on what the stats are telling me. With so many teams, players, and schemes its hard to know what youre looking at sometimes but its working. Over the last 10 weeks Ive gone from $20- $30 a slate to the point now where Ive maxed out on every single $1 and $2 contest they offer during the week, and this week is the first Ive started picking up the $5 and $10 50/50s too. You better believe Im going to take most of the credit, but Im not delusional either, theres no way I get to this point without you guys.

 
We are currently testing a "variance factor" metric in our projection which would be an awesome feature if we're able to get the formula right. If we get it finalized this week we will have it for the next few weeks and bowl season.

 
Sure thing, I come from a background in financial modeling and analytics. Part of what we do is assess risk, so I am trying to come up with a way to determine the risk of college football players. The issue is that small sample size in college football as you are dealing with just a few games to build a sample. NFL is much more realistic in this as you have several years of data.

The thought process here is that college football has a lot of variance, and the goal of this metric is to look at each player individually and establish what their variance is in their game logs. The issue of course is that the sample size is not big enough to build a typical statistical analysis.

Compare these two game logs, what you'll notice is that Ezekiel Elliott is likely one of the running backs with the least amount of variance. Sure if you include the 274 yard outlier game of Elliott it skews the data a little bit, but we can accept that as he doesn't have a single game under 100 yards this season. Compare this to my mention of McGuire and warning everyone in this thread about his variance and why I don't think he is a must start compared to what every single site was saying.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/gamelog/_/id/549811/ezekiel-elliott

http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/545809/elijah-mcguire

Now what is this good for? If I can get it to work, it will help in determining great cash game plays as they're all about reducing the risk and variance. Now in a one day sample size anything can happen and a lineup full of high risk could all go off and you lose, but over the course of the season in cash games if you have the least variance team you're bound to do better than you would if you start lineups full of high variance plays.

 
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