New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks Playoff Thread (2 Viewers)

[Breesisdaman]

Rumor is someone also is expected to film the beatdown the Saints will get tomorrow.

It will be available in the fiction section

 

[Alkahsu]

It's kind if interesting to me how SEA had this stretch of Hilton, Andre and Shorts all having big days against them... and then nothing, nada, zip, no WR or TE has gone over 100 yards against them since (Boldin got close at 8/6/93/0).

And then we saw what they did vs the Saints. Just plain all out coverage all over the field plus terrific technique. Would be nice to find the weakness there but ..

To be fair 60 of Shorts yards came in the 4th quarter when the starters were on the sidelines and 59 yards came on a single play where there was blown coverage (which isn't going to happen often vs. Seattle). So 4th quarter garbage time and 1 blown play account for 119 of Shorts 143 yards.

 

[seahawk 17]

Will practicing on a field with a Husky logo screw up their mindset?

 

[Henry Ford]

Will practicing on a field with a Husky logo screw up their mindset?

Yes. I hear to combat it they all wore their pants backwards.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Will practicing on a field with a Husky logo screw up their mindset?

Nah, they brought their Super Bowl trophy and are just staring at it for motivation.

Also first time that trophy has ever been in Seattle! :softballtakenawayfromstatorama:

 

[seahawk 17]

Underneath over the middle is what scares me. Without KJ playing at an all pro level (for the last Saints game, anyway) there could be a lot more there for Graham. But if all the Saints get is long, slow drives with runs and short passes over the middle, I like the hawks chances. IMO the way the Saints beat the hawks is for their strength, Brees, to beat our strength, the secondary. If Brees can't throw the ball downfield, it's going to be really tough to win.

This is actually what I've been saying about the Saints for the past few pages. I don't agree that the Hawks' chances go up if the Saints game plan to do this. They're very, very good at it.

Let me rephrase: I don't think long, slow drives will work for them consistently. If they can put those together all game, they win.

But I do think Brees will take his shots downfield. And I do think if he doesn't hit them, they don't win. But really, I don't know that much, and could be way off base.

As a football fan, I love Drew Brees and one of the reasons is that he can't stop himself from taking big shots downfield. Not the recipe for success against Seattle, and it will be his downfall.

I love Drew Brees and one of the reasons is that he can't stop himself from taking big shots downfield.

He pretty much did Game 1, didn't he?

I recall one deep ball to Meachem out the gate, but that was largely it.

No INTs either.

In the first game against Seattle Brees was 0/8 on passes attempted over 16 yards.

http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2013/12/drew_brees_passing_game_vs_the_11.html

 

[valhallan]

Merrill Hodge likes the Saints

I seem to recall him picking us a lot in big games. He must have some affinity for the Saints, but I have no idea why. Adam Schein used to do that on NFL Radio too.

 

[valhallan]

Pierre is officially questionable. Man it would be nice to have him.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Pierre is officially questionable. Man it would be nice to have him.

I would rather not. I don't think much of Ingram at all, so if Thomas is out I won't be too mad about that. He's looked good when healthy this year, and I think we all agree the Saints need to run the ball effectively tomorrow to win.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Merrill Hodge likes the Saints

I seem to recall him picking us a lot in big games. He must have some affinity for the Saints, but I have no idea why. Adam Schein used to do that on NFL Radio too.

I think Cowherd picked the Saints too, not sure. He said it would be close and then was gonna make his pick and I got busy doing something else and missed it.

 

[valhallan]

Pierre is officially questionable. Man it would be nice to have him.

I would rather not. I don't think much of Ingram at all, so if Thomas is out I won't be too mad about that. He's looked good when healthy this year, and I think we all agree the Saints need to run the ball effectively tomorrow to win.

That's certainly what I think. They need to make the run a threat so at least some guys don't immediately drop into coverage, giving Brees a chance to find a wrinkle for some timely passes. If the run does nothing and it's 4 man rushes with 7 in coverage all day, that'll be all she wrote.

 

[Alkahsu]

Since people are talking about the weather.......Anyone else see Total Access tonight? I caught the end of a segment that said Brees was 0-5 in the rain with 2TDs to 5INTs. There had to be some other factor though, since it was only 5 games.

 

[Henry Ford]

Since people are talking about the weather.......Anyone else see Total Access tonight? I caught the end of a segment that said Brees was 0-5 in the rain with 2TDs to 5INTs. There had to be some other factor though, since it was only 5 games.

2TDs to 5 INTs in 5 games seems like the numbers may be wrong. If only because he's thrown a TD pass in all but one game over the last four and a half seasons or so.

 

[Alkahsu]

Since people are talking about the weather.......Anyone else see Total Access tonight? I caught the end of a segment that said Brees was 0-5 in the rain with 2TDs to 5INTs. There had to be some other factor though, since it was only 5 games.

2TDs to 5 INTs in 5 games seems like the numbers may be wrong. If only because he's thrown a TD pass in all but one game over the last four and a half seasons or so.

I'm pretty sure it was 2TDs-5INTs, but like I said I just caught the end of it....Either way it's a ridiculous stat that carries no weight, just curios which 5 games they were talking about if anyone saw it.

 

[Breesisdaman]

I am only recalling the Panthers game as I drink my coffee this morning at 6:35 am. Brees wore special gloves and he threw the ball with accuracy in the short mid range. I don't recall him going long too often. The defense lost that game for us though, not Brees or should I say Harper and Jenkins lost it for us once Vaccaro went down to injury. Anyhow I am not concerned with Brees throwing in the rain one bit after seeing him in the Carrolina game. 50 mph winds is a different story. http://cbspower98fm.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/458910113_8.jpg

 

[ScottyDog]

Since people are talking about the weather.......Anyone else see Total Access tonight? I caught the end of a segment that said Brees was 0-5 in the rain with 2TDs to 5INTs. There had to be some other factor though, since it was only 5 games.

2TDs to 5 INTs in 5 games seems like the numbers may be wrong. If only because he's thrown a TD pass in all but one game over the last four and a half seasons or so.

I'm pretty sure it was 2TDs-5INTs, but like I said I just caught the end of it....Either way it's a ridiculous stat that carries no weight, just curios which 5 games they were talking about if anyone saw it.

 

[ScottyDog]

Since people are talking about the weather.......Anyone else see Total Access tonight? I caught the end of a segment that said Brees was 0-5 in the rain with 2TDs to 5INTs. There had to be some other factor though, since it was only 5 games.

2TDs to 5 INTs in 5 games seems like the numbers may be wrong. If only because he's thrown a TD pass in all but one game over the last four and a half seasons or so.

I'm pretty sure it was 2TDs-5INTs, but like I said I just caught the end of it....Either way it's a ridiculous stat that carries no weight, just curios which 5 games they were talking about if anyone saw it.

The 5 games were Brees record in the rain. By the way 4:45 am in Seattle and it is raining and very, very windy. Rain is coming down sideways in many different directions due to wind gusts. Hawks have won many games in these exact conditions.

 

[Sabertooth]

I wish both these teams could lose this game. I honestly just can't stand Brees with all his licking his fingers. And ITS just ruined the Seahawks for me. I'll probably root for the Seahawks just so there is a potential rematch with the 49ers.

 

[CapnJB]

I honestly just can't stand Brees with all his licking his fingers.

He just had Popeyes. Cut him some slack.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Underneath over the middle is what scares me. Without KJ playing at an all pro level (for the last Saints game, anyway) there could be a lot more there for Graham. But if all the Saints get is long, slow drives with runs and short passes over the middle, I like the hawks chances. IMO the way the Saints beat the hawks is for their strength, Brees, to beat our strength, the secondary. If Brees can't throw the ball downfield, it's going to be really tough to win.

This is actually what I've been saying about the Saints for the past few pages. I don't agree that the Hawks' chances go up if the Saints game plan to do this. They're very, very good at it.

Let me rephrase: I don't think long, slow drives will work for them consistently. If they can put those together all game, they win.

But I do think Brees will take his shots downfield. And I do think if he doesn't hit them, they don't win. But really, I don't know that much, and could be way off base.

As a football fan, I love Drew Brees and one of the reasons is that he can't stop himself from taking big shots downfield. Not the recipe for success against Seattle, and it will be his downfall.

I love Drew Brees and one of the reasons is that he can't stop himself from taking big shots downfield.

He pretty much did Game 1, didn't he?

I recall one deep ball to Meachem out the gate, but that was largely it.

No INTs either.

In the first game against Seattle Brees was 0/8 on passes attempted over 16 yards.

http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2013/12/drew_brees_passing_game_vs_the_11.html

Eight, that's more than I figured but perhaps I was thinking more of the deeper (well deeper than 16) variety like the early pass to Meachem.

Actually that reads to me like he also failed on medium and long passes, and even 8 is not very many.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

WARNING: Following article by respected professional football statistical analyst could be harmful to the health of New Orleans Saints fans.

http://www.footballperspective.com/division-preview-new-orleans-at-seattle/#more-16781

Division Preview: New Orleans at Seattle by Chase Stuart on January 10, 2014 in Current Events, Playoffs

...

I just wanted to point out what a great article this is.

Of the articles I've seen posted here I like this one, and the one posted by ITS about teams that had played earlier in the season with 22-35 point margins playing each other again in the playoffs on the same site, the best.

I'm going to get into some of the detail in another post, for my own enjoyment, because it's early and because I just enjoy this stuff.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

The Chase Stuart article is worth reading IMO. It covers some points here and in the playoff thread.

The 20-point difference between Seattle’s average home margin and the New Orleans’ average road margin — which, for brevity’s sake, I’m going to call the “projected MOV” — is very high, even by historical standards. In fact, only 20 playoff games since 1950 featured a game with a larger projected MOV.

• The record here is 38-12 for the home team, but I have to tell you I'm encouraged 12 visiting teams actually won.
• As a matter of fact since 2008 the visiting team has gone 5-2. Wow.

The average points spread was Home Team -9.3. Based on the points spread in each game, we would have expected the home team to win exactly 74% of their games. In other words, Vegas has typically done a good job in these situations. And the Seahawks, with a projected MOV of 20.0 and a points spread of -8, fit comfortable into this group. Giving the team a 70-75% chance of winning seems reasonable.

• This fits right in with what ProNinja has been saying, he's dead on. In fact it looks like the spread is maybe even a little low.
• We have already seen this happen once already in this year's playoffs according to Chase - when SD beat CIN just last week. Again, encouraged.

Establishing the run sounds easy, but the only way to do it is to be effective on first down carries. As it turns out, the Saints are pretty good at that. During the regular season, New Orleans averaged 5.29 YPC on 1st-and-10 runs in the first three quarters when the score was within 14 points That was the 2nd best rate in the league, trailing only Chicago. The best defense in those situations was the Jets, allowing just 3.17 yards per carry. The second best? Seattle, at 3.29. This is a true matchup of strength versus strength.

• We had this conversation in this thread earlier and one of the Seattle fans said this played right into SEA's hands. I said it was actually 'strength vs strength' so I feel pretty good about that.
• Saints fans should also be encouraged to look at that the one scoring drive for the Saints: 13 plays, 80 yards, TOP of over 8+ minutes. It was an arduous drive, but if NO is going to look at what worked last time to see what to do again, yaknow what that worked.

Of course, the real strength in this game belongs to the Seattle pass defense. And you can even extend that to the whole Seattle passing game. In 2013, the Seahawks averaged 7.26 ANY/A (Russell Wilson, while not throwing often, threw efficiently) and allowed 3.19 ANY/A, for a remarkable 4.07 ANY/A differential. ... Seattle’s 4.07 ANY/A differential is the 9th best since 1970. The table below shows the top 25 in ANY/A differential from 1970 to 2013: half of the first 24 teams made the Super Bowl, with nine of them winning it all. ... Take a moment and admire that Washington averaged 5 more ANY/A than it allowed in 1991. That’s incredible. But the team from the state of Washington in 2013 is pretty darn good, too. Teams that are dominant in the passing game tend to do very well, and I’m not too keen to go against history here.

• Adam Harsted posted about this in the playoffs thread, though he talked about in the context of SEA and NO, but especially (IMO) about NO as he was referencing teams with excellent pass defenses and "elite QBs" ie Brees & NO.

While the Seahawks dominated most of the pass differential metrics, the Saints made history in one of these categories, too. New Orleans gained 4918 passing yards and allowed only 3105 passing yards. That 1813 yard difference is largest by any NFL team in history. The 1961 Oilers, led by George Blanda, Bill Groman, and Charley Hennigan, actually gained 2,001 more passing yards than they allowed, but Houston of course was an AFL team. And there’s a bit of an asterisk here because of the games played: the 1943 Bears, 1951 Rams, and 1967 Jets also had a larger passing yards differential on a per-game basis. But regardless, that puts the Saints in some pretty impressive company. The Oilers, Bears, and Rams all won their league’s championships that season, and Joe Namath’s Jets won the Super Bowl the next season. The team with the fifth largest passing yards differential on a per-game basis, prior to the Saints, was the 2006 Colts, also a Super Bowl champion.

• Folks, I love this, obviously.
• Again this is the example of elite passing games with excellent pass defenses. Difficult thing is for NO, I'm not sure that the Saints' pass game can be "elite" in this game, whether due to SEA's own pass defense or the weather or both. It may not be.
• Before the WC games, Adam posted an article that compared all the 2013 playoff teams to past SB winners. SEA compared favorably to the most five (5) and NO compared favorably to two (2), the second most of the playoff bracket. I still say these are the two best teams in the playoffs.

Prediction: Seattle 31, New Orleans 14

• Well, I think we could see where the article was going. I think a lot of this is based on the MOV and point spread differential stats, but I think there is a lot to enjoy here for both teams.

Anyway, great article, Scotty.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

http://saintsreport.com/forums/f2/saints-practice-pics-1-10-seattle-318835/#.UtC8p3ky3Kc

Saints walk through at Huskies stadium. Warning there are allegations in the thread that Carroll taped the last walk through at the Clink. Whether true or not Carroll is bringing a lot of this type heat on himself with the Teams PED' trouble and the "beating the odds" on getting flagged for PI tactics. Then the USC stuff. I don't know if "Spying" is the real reason the Saints were slippery in selecting their walk through site and then changing it last minute this time but some fans have jumped to those conclusions so be warned before clicking the link.

You should have lead with how awesome those sweats are.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

How about an "on the ground" wind and rain report?

In terms of rain, it's been covered but we don't mean the misty thing, is it "heavy"?

I am happy with high winds, the Saints were going to have to play a nearly perfect game with a pass heavy approach.

During the regular season, New Orleans averaged 5.29 YPC on 1st-and-10 runs in the first three quarters when the score was within 14 points.

Maybe with the high winds SEA bunches up on the line more thinking the Saints won't pass, so maybe this hurts, but it hurts both teams. Also right now, Wilson will be affected by the wind just as much and maybe more as Brees is extremely effective in short range passing, again, I'll more than take it.

 

[Statorama]

How about an "on the ground" wind and rain report?

In terms of rain, it's been covered but we don't mean the misty thing, is it "heavy"?

I am happy with high winds, the Saints were going to have to play a nearly perfect game with a pass heavy approach.

During the regular season, New Orleans averaged 5.29 YPC on 1st-and-10 runs in the first three quarters when the score was within 14 points.

Maybe with the high winds SEA bunches up on the line more thinking the Saints won't pass, so maybe this hurts, but it hurts both teams. Also right now, Wilson will be affected by the wind just as much and maybe more as Brees is extremely effective in short range passing, again, I'll more than take it.

Good points. I like the saints chances if the long passing game of both teams is taken away. Saints pass D much worse than Seattle pass D. A grind em out game with FG's? I'm in. If Nostradamus said this game was going to end 15 - 12, I'd be ecstatic.

 

[Alkahsu]

Since people are talking about the weather.......Anyone else see Total Access tonight? I caught the end of a segment that said Brees was 0-5 in the rain with 2TDs to 5INTs. There had to be some other factor though, since it was only 5 games.

2TDs to 5 INTs in 5 games seems like the numbers may be wrong. If only because he's thrown a TD pass in all but one game over the last four and a half seasons or so.

I'm pretty sure it was 2TDs-5INTs, but like I said I just caught the end of it....Either way it's a ridiculous stat that carries no weight, just curios which 5 games they were talking about if anyone saw it.

The 5 games were Brees record in the rain. By the way 4:45 am in Seattle and it is raining and very, very windy. Rain is coming down sideways in many different directions due to wind gusts. Hawks have won many games in these exact conditions.

Maybe the stat does carry some weight then, I just find it hard to believe Brees has only played 5 games in the rain which is why I was thinking there was some other factor.

 

[Statorama]

Line is zooming to 10 with the weather news.

 

[Henry Ford]

Since people are talking about the weather.......Anyone else see Total Access tonight? I caught the end of a segment that said Brees was 0-5 in the rain with 2TDs to 5INTs. There had to be some other factor though, since it was only 5 games.

2TDs to 5 INTs in 5 games seems like the numbers may be wrong. If only because he's thrown a TD pass in all but one game over the last four and a half seasons or so.

I'm pretty sure it was 2TDs-5INTs, but like I said I just caught the end of it....Either way it's a ridiculous stat that carries no weight, just curios which 5 games they were talking about if anyone saw it.

Well, then at least three of those games were pre-2008 or so. Which is cool and all, but Wilson was still in high school. I don't think he was doing much better.

 

[Henry Ford]

How about an "on the ground" wind and rain report?

In terms of rain, it's been covered but we don't mean the misty thing, is it "heavy"?

I am happy with high winds, the Saints were going to have to play a nearly perfect game with a pass heavy approach.

During the regular season, New Orleans averaged 5.29 YPC on 1st-and-10 runs in the first three quarters when the score was within 14 points.

Maybe with the high winds SEA bunches up on the line more thinking the Saints won't pass, so maybe this hurts, but it hurts both teams. Also right now, Wilson will be affected by the wind just as much and maybe more as Brees is extremely effective in short range passing, again, I'll more than take it.

Good points. I like the saints chances if the long passing game of both teams is taken away. Saints pass D much worse than Seattle pass D. A grind em out game with FG's? I'm in. If Nostradamus said this game was going to end 15 - 12, I'd be ecstatic.

Weren't the Saints the #2 pass D in the league?

 

[Statorama]

How about an "on the ground" wind and rain report?

In terms of rain, it's been covered but we don't mean the misty thing, is it "heavy"?

I am happy with high winds, the Saints were going to have to play a nearly perfect game with a pass heavy approach.

During the regular season, New Orleans averaged 5.29 YPC on 1st-and-10 runs in the first three quarters when the score was within 14 points.

Maybe with the high winds SEA bunches up on the line more thinking the Saints won't pass, so maybe this hurts, but it hurts both teams. Also right now, Wilson will be affected by the wind just as much and maybe more as Brees is extremely effective in short range passing, again, I'll more than take it.

Good points. I like the saints chances if the long passing game of both teams is taken away. Saints pass D much worse than Seattle pass D. A grind em out game with FG's? I'm in. If Nostradamus said this game was going to end 15 - 12, I'd be ecstatic.

Weren't the Saints the #2 pass D in the league?

Banged up right now. Loss of Vacarro was huge. Not a fan of Harper covering anybody

 

[Henry Ford]

How about an "on the ground" wind and rain report?

In terms of rain, it's been covered but we don't mean the misty thing, is it "heavy"?

I am happy with high winds, the Saints were going to have to play a nearly perfect game with a pass heavy approach.

During the regular season, New Orleans averaged 5.29 YPC on 1st-and-10 runs in the first three quarters when the score was within 14 points.

Maybe with the high winds SEA bunches up on the line more thinking the Saints won't pass, so maybe this hurts, but it hurts both teams. Also right now, Wilson will be affected by the wind just as much and maybe more as Brees is extremely effective in short range passing, again, I'll more than take it.

Good points. I like the saints chances if the long passing game of both teams is taken away. Saints pass D much worse than Seattle pass D. A grind em out game with FG's? I'm in. If Nostradamus said this game was going to end 15 - 12, I'd be ecstatic.

Weren't the Saints the #2 pass D in the league?

Banged up right now. Loss of Vacarro was huge. Not a fan of Harper covering anybody

Fair enough. Harper had his one good coverage play of the season last week, so no doubt will fall apart this week.

 

[kd1]

Doesn't the structure of the Seahawks' stadium prevent wind from being a major problem? Or am I imagining that?

 

[Henry Ford]

Doesn't the structure of the Seahawks' stadium prevent wind from being a major problem? Or am I imagining that?

Quite the opposite. One end of the stadium is open.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Which big coverage play did Harper have last week, the one where he tripped and fell when he was right in between the ball & Cooper in the end zone?

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Doesn't the structure of the Seahawks' stadium prevent wind from being a major problem? Or am I imagining that?

That's the Superdome.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I know Miller had a good Game 1 but Harper has big problems with fast TEs who turn upfield on him, and I don't think Miller fits that mold. I did see one big projection for Miller though (FBGs?).

 

[Henry Ford]

Which big coverage play did Harper have last week, the one where he tripped and fell when he was right in between the ball & Cooper in the end zone?

I don't remember the specific play, but I think it was on the field goal drive by the Eagles right before the end. I turned to my wife and said "well, there's his great play for the year. Better hope they don't get the ball back."

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Line is zooming to 10 with the weather news.

wind should help the under also.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Line is zooming to 10 with the weather news.

wind should help the under also.

Love the under (which is ~47.5 I think)!

~ NO 22 - SEA 16

 

[proninja]

I am so happy it's gameday.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

The weather has cleared in NO, warming up, zero wind.

Heading out to one big shindig, heading to big family tailgate after that. Need to check if anyone has picked up the ceremonial Popeye's, we'll need those bird bones later.

It's awesome to finally be Gameday!

 

[seahawk 17]

Happy Saturday everyone!

Any P Thomas news?

 

[MarcO]

boots on the ground weather report. I live just across the water from the stadium, went for a run around Alki. Actually blue sky over SoDo and to the NW but that is changing fast. Skies are dark gray to the South and that's where the weather seems to be coming from, at least that is where the wind is coming from. All things considered, that is not so bad as the closed end of the stadium is to the South. I don't know how stadium aerodynamics work but i have to think this is better than the wind coming down from the North where the Hawks nest and openings are. Unless the weather really changes (which is very possible) I don't think wind will play much of a factor except for the kicking game - and only that if it's swirling in the stadium.

Couple of other local tidbits:

Saints are staying in Bellevue at the Westin

Drew Brees ate at Cheesecake Factory for dinner

They had their walk through yesterday at Bellevue High School

ETA: starting to rain but it doesn't have the feel that we'll have hard rain today.

 

[kd1]

Doesn't the structure of the Seahawks' stadium prevent wind from being a major problem? Or am I imagining that?

That's the Superdome.

haha...i know they say it about at least a couple open air stadiums. thought seattle was one.

 

[seahawk 17]

Seattle's secondary leads the league in PI. Saints lead the league in offensive holding. This does not bode well for either team.

http://nfl.si.com/2014/01/11/nfl-officials-playoff-game-calls/

 

[Henry Ford]

Seattle's secondary leads the league in PI. Saints lead the league in offensive holding. This does not bode well for either team.

http://nfl.si.com/2014/01/11/nfl-officials-playoff-game-calls/

A huge number of those holds were Charles Brown.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Line is zooming to 10 with the weather news.

Line moved to Seattle because of some huge sharp plays, weather prediction hasn't changed.

 

[Statorama]

Obviously, lets go Saints!

Everything else aside, I'm really hoping for a great game and both teams coming out of this injury free.

I believe whichever team wins this game will go to the Superbowl, and win it.

 

[Statorama]

Line is zooming to 10 with the weather news.

Line moved to Seattle because of some huge sharp plays, weather prediction hasn't changed.

You guys can't quit being snarky for ten minutes, can you.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Line is zooming to 10 with the weather news.

Line moved to Seattle because of some huge sharp plays, weather prediction hasn't changed.

You guys can't quit being snarky for ten minutes, can you.

The truth is snarky now?