NFL Combine Fantasy Winners and Losers (1 Viewer)

[Zimm]

Winners

1. WR - S.Hill - Georgia Tech

Hill blew the combine away with a 4.36 40 yard dash at 6-4 215 lbs and he looked very smooth in the gauntlet drill. Hill did come back down to reality though during a few drills where he showed to be stiff in the hips and being a very inexperienced route runner. Overall i would expect Hill to vault up into the latter part of round 1 to early round 2.

2. WR - M.Floyd - Notre Dame

Floyd came in and ran better then expected (4.47) and looked natural catching the ball in all of the drills and showed that he has the talent to be the number 1 WR in this years draft class. I would say Floyd should be drafted in the top 20 of the NFL draft.

3. RB - D.Wilson - Virgina Tech

Former NFL scout Bryan Broaddus described Wilson's 4.12 20-yard shuttle as "even more impressive than the jumps." Per SI.com draft analyst Tony Pauline, "Wilson ran terrific routes, showed soft hands and did a great job catching the deep ball" on the field. Wilson's explosiveness is obvious both in games and via his measurables. I think he has passed L.Miller as the number 3 rated RB in this years draft class and could be a surprising top 20 pick.

4. RB - D.Martin - Boise St.

Martin showed that he is a complete back in all of the drills today at the scouting combine. Mike Mayock said several times that he shows the ability to be an every down back at the next level. Martin isn't as flashy as Wilson or Miller but is a much safer pick because he can step in day 1 and play all 3 downs.

5. QB - J.Jefferson - LSU

Everyone knew coming into the scouting combine that Jefferson had a cannon arm, and well he showed it off today launching several perfect balls and drawing praise from several scouts. Jefferson was criticized for entering the draft early with the chance of not being drafted, but with his performance today he could easily go late in the 3rd round(likely round 4-5).

Losers

1. WR - K.Wright - Baylor

Wright shocked everyone with his 4.61 40. He was expected to run in the low 4.4's and has really hurt his stock as a top 15 pick. I do expect him to bounce back at his pro day on March 21st, but he could slide to the end of round 1 of the NFL draft.

2. WR - J.Blackmon - Oklahoma St

Blackmon didn't run at the combine because of a hamstring "injury" but participated in on field drills and didn't really stand out as much as a potential top 5 pick should. Before the combine i doubted Blackmon as a top 10 talent and now i think he will take a draft day tumble like his fellow Oklahoma St. product WR Dez Bryant did. I still think he goes in the top 20, but you never know.

3. D.Jones - UNC

According to NFL Network's Mike Mayock, position coaches at the Combine "jumped all over" North Carolina WR Dwight Jones in on-field drills for disobeying instructions and a lack of hustle.

Jones apparently ran a bad route at one point in drills and didn't hustle to the other area of the field, where the quarterback placed his pass. Russ Lande of Sporting News also noted that Jones had similar problems at the Senior Bowl, specifically in terms of effort. At this point i see him falling to rounds 6-7 in this very deep WR class.

4. B.Osweiler - Arizona St.

This is plain and simple....He choose not to throw at the combine and blew a great chance to separate himself/catch up to other members of the QB class which lacks much depth at all. Osweiler could be passed on for several QB's that showed up and threw well at the combine.

5. J.Adams - Arkansas

Everyone projected speedster Joe Adams to light up the guns at the NFL scouting combine and like many he highly disappointed. Running a 4.55 and his small frame was climbing up boards after his impressive senior bowl outing. After his poor performance in the 40 and looked average in the drills he is back to square one and i expect him to be drafted after the actual speedster from Arkansas J.Wright.

And of all the Losers of the NFL scouting combine has to be:

QB - R.Griffin - Baylor - He might have ran good enough to make the redskins trade up for him....Poor Griffin

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Good stuff

 

[JohnnyU]

Turbin and Streeter really helped themselves at the combine.

Hillman looked good as well.

 

[Zimm]

Turbin and Streeter really helped themselves at the combine.Hillman looked good as well.

Turbin is straight up JACKED!!!!

 

[Rodeojones]

Does anyone know who was WR 10?? He was in the first group and laid out beautifully for a pass as the crew was going to Irvin and never commented on him.

 

[Zimm]

Josh Cooper - Oklahoma St.

 

[Couch Potato]

Guys play 2-4 years of college ball and these days NFL people can review every snap. Yet year after year the talking heads on TV make such a big deal out of the combine, as though 4.5 seconds of a guy's life is going to decide how well he'll play in the NFL in some major way. It sort of disturbs me too that this combine gets treated like it's all-important by some of the scouts too. Haven't we learned yet from the idiotic draft busts that made big jumps up the boards due to this thing and then weren't able to cut it? To me it's a show, nothing more, and any team who gets duped into making big alterations to their view of a player because of it deserves to get burned.

 

[GridironMenace]

The media has overhyped the combine so much it's absurd. A tenth here or a tenth there, who cares. It's all about who gets drafted where. It's all about opportunity. The rest of it is just a money-grab-fluff-piece for the NFL.

 

[GridironMenace]

Nice post Couch Potato, you were typing that as I was typing mine.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Guys play 2-4 years of college ball and these days NFL people can review every snap. Yet year after year the talking heads on TV make such a big deal out of the combine, as though 4.5 seconds of a guy's life is going to decide how well he'll play in the NFL in some major way. It sort of disturbs me too that this combine gets treated like it's all-important by some of the scouts too. Haven't we learned yet from the idiotic draft busts that made big jumps up the boards due to this thing and then weren't able to cut it? To me it's a show, nothing more, and any team who gets duped into making big alterations to their view of a player because of it deserves to get burned.

What about Chris Johnson?

 

[Skeletore Eh]

Turbin and Streeter really helped themselves at the combine.Hillman looked good as well.

Why do you say streeter helped himself? Yeah he ran fast, especially for his size, but he really struggled catching the ball throughout the drills.

 

[Couch Potato]

Nice post Couch Potato, you were typing that as I was typing mine.

I'm with ya brother. Overhyped.

 

[Zimm]

Its all good...When it comes to rookie draft time S.Hill gets taken before lets say K.Wright, and then you sit there and say thank you NFL scouting combine for letting Kendell Wright fall to me.

 

[beto]

Too much reality in this thread. How about this RB class? These guys are much faster than I expected.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Nice post Couch Potato, you were typing that as I was typing mine.

I'm with ya brother. Overhyped.

So your opinion of Kendall Wright is the same at 4.61 as it would have been at, say, 4.42?That seems crazy to me, but to each his own I guess.

 

[Zimm]

Nice post Couch Potato, you were typing that as I was typing mine.

I'm with ya brother. Overhyped.

So your opinion of Kendall Wright is the same at 4.61 as it would have been at, say, 4.42?That seems crazy to me, but to each his own I guess.

 

[Couch Potato]

Nice post Couch Potato, you were typing that as I was typing mine.

I'm with ya brother. Overhyped.

So your opinion of Kendall Wright is the same at 4.61 as it would have been at, say, 4.42?That seems crazy to me, but to each his own I guess.

My opinion of Kendall Wright is my opinion of Kendall Wright, based on football games. We already know his football speed, so why would I think a one-time run this weekend makes him a better or worse football player than he was last month?You know how easy it is to gain or lose a tenth in a 40 time? How fast was he off the start on this particular day? How did his shoes feel? How well did he sleep last night? Some of these guys were track guys in the past and are trained for these things, some were not. Some hire special trainers just for this stupid combine, some do not.When someone can show me that Jerry Rice was a worse football player because of a mediocre 40 time, I'll believe. Until then I don't care. Lots of really really fast guys flop in the NFL, and lots of 4.6 guys go on to the Hall of Fame.

 

[identikit]

Nice post Couch Potato, you were typing that as I was typing mine.

I'm with ya brother. Overhyped.

So your opinion of Kendall Wright is the same at 4.61 as it would have been at, say, 4.42?That seems crazy to me, but to each his own I guess.

My opinion of Kendall Wright is my opinion of Kendall Wright, based on football games. We already know his football speed, so why would I think a one-time run this weekend makes him a better or worse football player than he was last month?You know how easy it is to gain or lose a tenth in a 40 time? How fast was he off the blocks? How did his shoes feel? How well did he sleep last night? Some of these guys were track guys in the past and are trained for these thing, some were not.When someone can show me that Jerry Rice was a worse football player because of a mediocre 40 time, I'll believe. Until then I don't care. Lots of really really fast guys flop in the NFL, and lots of 4.6 guys go on to the Hall of Fame.

Saw some talk that his poor technique in the 40 contributed to his slower time.I'll trust his game speed.

 

[Xue]

What were Kendall's unofficial times?

 

[Couch Potato]

Hey, I know I'm going to get raked across the coals giving such an opinion especially in this particular thread. So I'll shut up now. I know you guys enjoy the thing, I just wanted to add a dose of perspective so folks wouldn't get too carried away with this show.

 

[rockaction]

Nice post Couch Potato, you were typing that as I was typing mine.

I'm with ya brother. Overhyped.

So your opinion of Kendall Wright is the same at 4.61 as it would have been at, say, 4.42?That seems crazy to me, but to each his own I guess.

Yep. But I'm with you on this one. I want to see the speed. There's a screen (like employment filtering) aspect to it, and a speed aspect. And a smart aspect, and a dedication aspect, and a physical aspect...It's not the be-all-end-all. That which the test measures can be studied for and negate its own purpose. But it's at least some sort of objective measure.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Nice post Couch Potato, you were typing that as I was typing mine.

I'm with ya brother. Overhyped.

So your opinion of Kendall Wright is the same at 4.61 as it would have been at, say, 4.42?That seems crazy to me, but to each his own I guess.

My opinion of Kendall Wright is my opinion of Kendall Wright, based on football games. We already know his football speed, so why would I think a one-time run this weekend makes him a better or worse football player than he was last month?You know how easy it is to gain or lose a tenth in a 40 time? How fast was he off the start on this particular day? How did his shoes feel? How well did he sleep last night? Some of these guys were track guys in the past and are trained for these things, some were not. Some hire special trainers just for this stupid combine, some do not.When someone can show me that Jerry Rice was a worse football player because of a mediocre 40 time, I'll believe. Until then I don't care. Lots of really really fast guys flop in the NFL, and lots of 4.6 guys go on to the Hall of Fame.

Big guys run 4.6s and go to the Hall. Small guys can't do that in the NFL. If you're Wright's size you'd better be really fast. (And feel free to point out any counter examples.)IMO what we knew before today was his football speed against college players. If that time holds (and the final times aren't released for another week or two) you can put a fork in Wright - at least in terms of being a big-play NFL WR. No one his size will ever be an NFL playmaker running a 4.61. There may be a role for him, but he's not worth a first round pick.And you're asking the wrong questions IMO. Do you know how HARD it is to have your best time on two different runs be a full 1/10th of a second off your actual ability? The entire range of times today for WRs was, what, .30 seconds? A tenth is huge given the controlled environment and methodology in Indianapolis (same track each year, no wind, constant temperature, same guy watching the starts to ensure they're standard, same methodology for timing -- two hand-held, one electronic that's started with by hand, each runner gets to choose when he starts). People act like a tenth of a second is some sort of impossibly small unit of time and the measurement error is a quarter second or something. It's not.I'd give you a couple hundredths, but Wright is about two tenths slower than he needed to be to have a shot at making it big in the NFL. (Again, I'm assuming that ~4.61 holds.)

 

[DawnBTVS]

Some things to point out first... Jerry Rice specifically mentioned that he had been timed as fast as 4.44 at his school (which is more in line with his field speed) when he was coming out into the NFL Draft so despite his "slow" Combine time, presumably he ran faster at his Pro Day?

Some guys who impressed me a bit...

WR Danny Coale (Virginia Tech): Liked him a lot coming out and cemented himself a bit. Ran a 4.50 40 but made up for it with a solid vertical (35") and great times in the Shuttle (4.15) and 3 Cone (6.69). For comparison, Hill ran a 4.36 with a 4.48 and 6.88 despite being 4" taller and 14 pounds heavier.

WR Junior Hemingway (Michigan): Another guy I liked coming out despite his later round status. Killed it all over with a 4.53 40 at 225 pounds, 35.5" Vertical, 10'4" Broad Jump, and mind boggingly ridiculous numbers for the Shuttle (3.98) and 3 Cone (6.59). For comparison's sake, Chris Rainey at 5'8" 180 put up 3.93 and 6.50 in the shuttle and cone.

Coale I think could work himself into the 5th-6th Round in part due to his ST ability whereas Hemingway could be a sleeper type WR in the 5th or 6th round himself in part because Hemingway didn't put up the numbers that others in the class did.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

why dont they run the 40 in pads?

 

[rockaction]

why dont they run the 40 in pads?

The same reason why they don't have them plant and cut ten yards in, probably. They're testing track speed for forty yards.

 

[Donnybrook]

5. QB - J.Jefferson - LSUEveryone knew coming into the scouting combine that Jefferson had a cannon arm, and well he showed it off today launching several perfect balls and drawing praise from several scouts. Jefferson was criticized for entering the draft early with the chance of not being drafted, but with his performance today he could easily go late in the 3rd round(likely round 4-5).

I really think you are over-estimating a performance at the combine can have on a QBs draft stock. By most accounts, Cam Newton was terribly inaccurate throwing at the combine but he still went 1st overall. Jefferson is not going to move up that far.

 

[Couch Potato]

Nice post Couch Potato, you were typing that as I was typing mine.

I'm with ya brother. Overhyped.

So your opinion of Kendall Wright is the same at 4.61 as it would have been at, say, 4.42?That seems crazy to me, but to each his own I guess.

My opinion of Kendall Wright is my opinion of Kendall Wright, based on football games. We already know his football speed, so why would I think a one-time run this weekend makes him a better or worse football player than he was last month?You know how easy it is to gain or lose a tenth in a 40 time? How fast was he off the start on this particular day? How did his shoes feel? How well did he sleep last night? Some of these guys were track guys in the past and are trained for these things, some were not. Some hire special trainers just for this stupid combine, some do not.When someone can show me that Jerry Rice was a worse football player because of a mediocre 40 time, I'll believe. Until then I don't care. Lots of really really fast guys flop in the NFL, and lots of 4.6 guys go on to the Hall of Fame.

Big guys run 4.6s and go to the Hall. Small guys can't do that in the NFL. If you're Wright's size you'd better be really fast. (And feel free to point out any counter examples.)IMO what we knew before today was his football speed against college players. If that time holds (and the final times aren't released for another week or two) you can put a fork in Wright - at least in terms of being a big-play NFL WR. No one his size will ever be an NFL playmaker running a 4.61. There may be a role for him, but he's not worth a first round pick.And you're asking the wrong questions IMO. Do you know how HARD it is to have your best time on two different runs be a full 1/10th of a second off your actual ability? The entire range of times today for WRs was, what, .30 seconds? A tenth is huge given the controlled environment and methodology in Indianapolis (same track each year, no wind, constant temperature, same guy watching the starts to ensure they're standard, same methodology for timing -- two hand-held, one electronic that's started with by hand, each runner gets to choose when he starts). People act like a tenth of a second is some sort of impossibly small unit of time and the measurement error is a quarter second or something. It's not.I'd give you a couple hundredths, but Wright is about two tenths slower than he needed to be to have a shot at making it big in the NFL. (Again, I'm assuming that ~4.61 holds.)

Good, thoughtful post Rob. I appreciate the effort and the info. Don't be too disappointed that you haven't changed this stubborn old *******'s mind on Wright though. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out for him over the next few years.

 

[Zimm]

5. QB - J.Jefferson - LSUEveryone knew coming into the scouting combine that Jefferson had a cannon arm, and well he showed it off today launching several perfect balls and drawing praise from several scouts. Jefferson was criticized for entering the draft early with the chance of not being drafted, but with his performance today he could easily go late in the 3rd round(likely round 4-5).

I really think you are over-estimating a performance at the combine can have on a QBs draft stock. By most accounts, Cam Newton was terribly inaccurate throwing at the combine but he still went 1st overall. Jefferson is not going to move up that far.

Jeffery helped his stock..I wasn't saying he is a top pick by any means. He had a very good chance to go undrafted and with his workout he showed that he could come in and be a developmental QB for the future. Tavaris Jackson and Josh Johnson has the same skill set as Jefferson and he just needs to be polished up a bit.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Nice post Couch Potato, you were typing that as I was typing mine.

I'm with ya brother. Overhyped.

So your opinion of Kendall Wright is the same at 4.61 as it would have been at, say, 4.42?That seems crazy to me, but to each his own I guess.

My opinion of Kendall Wright is my opinion of Kendall Wright, based on football games. We already know his football speed, so why would I think a one-time run this weekend makes him a better or worse football player than he was last month?You know how easy it is to gain or lose a tenth in a 40 time? How fast was he off the start on this particular day? How did his shoes feel? How well did he sleep last night? Some of these guys were track guys in the past and are trained for these things, some were not. Some hire special trainers just for this stupid combine, some do not.When someone can show me that Jerry Rice was a worse football player because of a mediocre 40 time, I'll believe. Until then I don't care. Lots of really really fast guys flop in the NFL, and lots of 4.6 guys go on to the Hall of Fame.

Big guys run 4.6s and go to the Hall. Small guys can't do that in the NFL. If you're Wright's size you'd better be really fast. (And feel free to point out any counter examples.)IMO what we knew before today was his football speed against college players. If that time holds (and the final times aren't released for another week or two) you can put a fork in Wright - at least in terms of being a big-play NFL WR. No one his size will ever be an NFL playmaker running a 4.61. There may be a role for him, but he's not worth a first round pick.And you're asking the wrong questions IMO. Do you know how HARD it is to have your best time on two different runs be a full 1/10th of a second off your actual ability? The entire range of times today for WRs was, what, .30 seconds? A tenth is huge given the controlled environment and methodology in Indianapolis (same track each year, no wind, constant temperature, same guy watching the starts to ensure they're standard, same methodology for timing -- two hand-held, one electronic that's started with by hand, each runner gets to choose when he starts). People act like a tenth of a second is some sort of impossibly small unit of time and the measurement error is a quarter second or something. It's not.I'd give you a couple hundredths, but Wright is about two tenths slower than he needed to be to have a shot at making it big in the NFL. (Again, I'm assuming that ~4.61 holds.)

Good, thoughtful post Rob. I appreciate the effort and the info. Don't be too disappointed that you haven't changed this stubborn old *******'s mind on Wright though. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out for him over the next few years.

It will be interesting Couch. Hope I didn't come out of the gate too hard there. Wasn't trying to be overly aggressive or single you out or anything. And to be clear, I wasn't saying to ignore collegiate play. I just think you have to combine what you know about a college career with the info provided by the combine -- and you need relative success on both tests (NCAA and Indy) to be an NFL star.

 

[Couch Potato]

Hope I didn't come out of the gate too hard there. Wasn't trying to be overly aggressive or single you out or anything.

It's never an issue having someone voicing a strong opinion. You're never rude, and one of my favs.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Just curious....for the guys that factor in what the prospect looks like (speed wise) in the games do you also factor in all the speeds of the guys he's running against?

Poor technique is one thing and I'm sure scouts factor that in JMO on that.

 

[Couch Potato]

A poster above mentioned Jerry Rice posting 4.4s elsewhere. I think same can be said for Wright, that he's been in 4.3s if I remember correctly. Maybe his pro day will "fix" things.

You can use the word fix in either sense. LOL.

OK, I'm outta here. Other un-important time wasters to get to before the night is over.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Nice post Couch Potato, you were typing that as I was typing mine.

I'm with ya brother. Overhyped.

So your opinion of Kendall Wright is the same at 4.61 as it would have been at, say, 4.42?That seems crazy to me, but to each his own I guess.

Watch the tape. Wright plays faster than Floyd. Who cares how fast someone runs when they've trained for weeks for it. How fast do they run with pads? How fast do they run in the 4th quarter with pads?

 

[EBF]

The combine isn't everything, but it is something. I remember watching it a few years ago when Jon Dwyer was widely thought to be a first round prospect. He showed up looking like a tub of goo. Meanwhile Montario Hardesty and Ben Tate looked fit, and were much more fluid in drills. Hardesty and Tate ended up being drafted higher and have thus far had better careers (though that could change).

Point being, this stuff is relevant. I'm not going to go overboard downgrading Kendall Wright, but 4.61 is not the kind of time you want to see from someone who is supposed to have elite speed. More importantly, he looks like he might be carrying a little bit of extra weight. That raises questions about his physique and/or his work habits.

Didn't Charles Rogers quietly fail a piss test at this thing before he was drafted? I seem to recall something like that where one of his tests was red-flagged for one reason or another. That turned out to be a foreboding omen. I'm not saying that Wright is going to be a bust because he had a bad day two months before the draft. All I'm saying is that the little data points do matter sometimes.

 

[Hoosier16]

Some things to point out first... Jerry Rice specifically mentioned that he had been timed as fast as 4.44 at his school (which is more in line with his field speed) when he was coming out into the NFL Draft so despite his "slow" Combine time, presumably he ran faster at his Pro Day?

Some guys who impressed me a bit...

WR Danny Coale (Virginia Tech): Liked him a lot coming out and cemented himself a bit. Ran a 4.50 40 but made up for it with a solid vertical (35") and great times in the Shuttle (4.15) and 3 Cone (6.69). For comparison, Hill ran a 4.36 with a 4.48 and 6.88 despite being 4" taller and 14 pounds heavier.

WR Junior Hemingway (Michigan): Another guy I liked coming out despite his later round status. Killed it all over with a 4.53 40 at 225 pounds, 35.5" Vertical, 10'4" Broad Jump, and mind boggingly ridiculous numbers for the Shuttle (3.98) and 3 Cone (6.59). For comparison's sake, Chris Rainey at 5'8" 180 put up 3.93 and 6.50 in the shuttle and cone.

Coale I think could work himself into the 5th-6th Round in part due to his ST ability whereas Hemingway could be a sleeper type WR in the 5th or 6th round himself in part because Hemingway didn't put up the numbers that others in the class did.

Hemingway looked very good catching the ball as well. He was very smooth in the drills.

 

[The Man With No Name]

I don't think Robbert Griffin was a loser by not running. His 6'2" 3/8 height made him a winner regardless of everything he didn't do.

 

[identikit]

I don't think Robbert Griffin was a loser by not running. His 6'2" 3/8 height made him a winner regardless of everything he didn't do.

He did run.

 

[Zimm]

I don't think Robbert Griffin was a loser by not running. His 6'2" 3/8 height made him a winner regardless of everything he didn't do.

I was obviously being sarcastic when it came to Griffin and i really don't see him as being a winner...He isn't going to go any higher than what he already was coming into the combine.

 

[Donnybrook]

Tyrone Calico was 6'4" 220 and ran a 4.34 40 at the combine. I hope Steven Hill has a better a career than Tyrone.

 

[B. Nugget]

Tyrone Calico was 6'4" 220 and ran a 4.34 40 at the combine. I hope Steven Hill has a better a career than Tyrone.

Or that his knees can handle horse-collar tackles better than ole Tyrone!

 

[coolnerd]

Guys play 2-4 years of college ball and these days NFL people can review every snap. Yet year after year the talking heads on TV make such a big deal out of the combine, as though 4.5 seconds of a guy's life is going to decide how well he'll play in the NFL in some major way. It sort of disturbs me too that this combine gets treated like it's all-important by some of the scouts too. Haven't we learned yet from the idiotic draft busts that made big jumps up the boards due to this thing and then weren't able to cut it? To me it's a show, nothing more, and any team who gets duped into making big alterations to their view of a player because of it deserves to get burned.

I am closer in agreement to this position than most. From what I can tell most teams get 75-80% of their grades from fill study. This is no different than I do as an instructor in giving essays and tests. The side work in a class at times reveals issues in students with high grades, answers questions about why a lower performer does not peform well, or shows untapped potential. For most students (players), the side work (combine, on campus work outs, team visits) just confirms what they are producing on tests and essays(games). What an evaluator is looking for is mismatches. The terms raisers and fallers are overused, but more dramatic than hmmm I thought Wright was faster than that, I need to go look at tape to see why he was wide open and running away from people in a major conference. Was he injured (did miss the senior bowl with something), was it just bad technique, or does he just play better than do side work? Generally, just like a class, the side work does not significantly influence the final grade much unless it is really bad or really good. And yes, students like Luck and Griffin can get away with not doing it all, while the lesser guys like Jeffries might want to try to earn all the points they can because they are blowing a once high grade with what looks like work ethic issues and possibily listening to the wrong people.

 

[BeTheMatch]

Charley Casserly, who knows a thing or two more than every moron on here (me included), had this (I'm paraphrasing) to say about Kendall Wright's 40 time:

"Throw that out. It doesn't mean a thing. He plays much faster than 4.61. I don't care about that. The tape doesn't lie. I saw him run by defenders in every game. Every game."

 

[loose circuits]

Kirk Cousin's? Some saying he threw himself into the 1st round?

 

[Jason Wood]

I get what the point of this thread is, but honestly I think it's misplaced.

Sometimes a player can fall and it significantly enhances their fantasy value, and the opposite can be true, too. A player's success is so much tied to the scheme they land in, their rapport with the coaches and the system, the health of their surrounding cast, and the depth chart.

If it were as simple as looking at who marginally helped themselves on NFL draft boards, winning fantasy football would be as simple as drafting the skill position players who go first at their positions in the draft each year. Rarely would that lead to picking the very best young players.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Devon Wylie. He's Joe Adams, but better, although he's injury prone.

 

[valence]

Nice post Couch Potato, you were typing that as I was typing mine.

I'm with ya brother. Overhyped.

So your opinion of Kendall Wright is the same at 4.61 as it would have been at, say, 4.42?That seems crazy to me, but to each his own I guess.

My opinion of Kendall Wright is my opinion of Kendall Wright, based on football games. We already know his football speed, so why would I think a one-time run this weekend makes him a better or worse football player than he was last month?You know how easy it is to gain or lose a tenth in a 40 time? How fast was he off the start on this particular day? How did his shoes feel? How well did he sleep last night? Some of these guys were track guys in the past and are trained for these things, some were not. Some hire special trainers just for this stupid combine, some do not.

When someone can show me that Jerry Rice was a worse football player because of a mediocre 40 time, I'll believe. Until then I don't care. Lots of really really fast guys flop in the NFL, and lots of 4.6 guys go on to the Hall of Fame.

Big guys run 4.6s and go to the Hall. Small guys can't do that in the NFL. If you're Wright's size you'd better be really fast. (And feel free to point out any counter examples.)IMO what we knew before today was his football speed against college players. If that time holds (and the final times aren't released for another week or two) you can put a fork in Wright - at least in terms of being a big-play NFL WR. No one his size will ever be an NFL playmaker running a 4.61. There may be a role for him, but he's not worth a first round pick.

And you're asking the wrong questions IMO. Do you know how HARD it is to have your best time on two different runs be a full 1/10th of a second off your actual ability? The entire range of times today for WRs was, what, .30 seconds? A tenth is huge given the controlled environment and methodology in Indianapolis (same track each year, no wind, constant temperature, same guy watching the starts to ensure they're standard, same methodology for timing -- two hand-held, one electronic that's started with by hand, each runner gets to choose when he starts). People act like a tenth of a second is some sort of impossibly small unit of time and the measurement error is a quarter second or something. It's not.

I'd give you a couple hundredths, but Wright is about two tenths slower than he needed to be to have a shot at making it big in the NFL. (Again, I'm assuming that ~4.61 holds.)

Welker ran a 4.61 and he's made a few plays.

 

[Xue]

Nice post Couch Potato, you were typing that as I was typing mine.

I'm with ya brother. Overhyped.

So your opinion of Kendall Wright is the same at 4.61 as it would have been at, say, 4.42?That seems crazy to me, but to each his own I guess.

My opinion of Kendall Wright is my opinion of Kendall Wright, based on football games. We already know his football speed, so why would I think a one-time run this weekend makes him a better or worse football player than he was last month?You know how easy it is to gain or lose a tenth in a 40 time? How fast was he off the start on this particular day? How did his shoes feel? How well did he sleep last night? Some of these guys were track guys in the past and are trained for these things, some were not. Some hire special trainers just for this stupid combine, some do not.

When someone can show me that Jerry Rice was a worse football player because of a mediocre 40 time, I'll believe. Until then I don't care. Lots of really really fast guys flop in the NFL, and lots of 4.6 guys go on to the Hall of Fame.

Big guys run 4.6s and go to the Hall. Small guys can't do that in the NFL. If you're Wright's size you'd better be really fast. (And feel free to point out any counter examples.)IMO what we knew before today was his football speed against college players. If that time holds (and the final times aren't released for another week or two) you can put a fork in Wright - at least in terms of being a big-play NFL WR. No one his size will ever be an NFL playmaker running a 4.61. There may be a role for him, but he's not worth a first round pick.

And you're asking the wrong questions IMO. Do you know how HARD it is to have your best time on two different runs be a full 1/10th of a second off your actual ability? The entire range of times today for WRs was, what, .30 seconds? A tenth is huge given the controlled environment and methodology in Indianapolis (same track each year, no wind, constant temperature, same guy watching the starts to ensure they're standard, same methodology for timing -- two hand-held, one electronic that's started with by hand, each runner gets to choose when he starts). People act like a tenth of a second is some sort of impossibly small unit of time and the measurement error is a quarter second or something. It's not.

I'd give you a couple hundredths, but Wright is about two tenths slower than he needed to be to have a shot at making it big in the NFL. (Again, I'm assuming that ~4.61 holds.)

Welker ran a 4.61 and he's made a few plays.

Wright won't be used in the same role as Welker. Apples to oranges.Someone noted that Wright stumbled off the block and was straining himself too hard, that he wasn't relaxed.

 

[Skeletore Eh]

Nice post Couch Potato, you were typing that as I was typing mine.

I'm with ya brother. Overhyped.

So your opinion of Kendall Wright is the same at 4.61 as it would have been at, say, 4.42?That seems crazy to me, but to each his own I guess.

My opinion of Kendall Wright is my opinion of Kendall Wright, based on football games. We already know his football speed, so why would I think a one-time run this weekend makes him a better or worse football player than he was last month?You know how easy it is to gain or lose a tenth in a 40 time? How fast was he off the start on this particular day? How did his shoes feel? How well did he sleep last night? Some of these guys were track guys in the past and are trained for these things, some were not. Some hire special trainers just for this stupid combine, some do not.

When someone can show me that Jerry Rice was a worse football player because of a mediocre 40 time, I'll believe. Until then I don't care. Lots of really really fast guys flop in the NFL, and lots of 4.6 guys go on to the Hall of Fame.

Big guys run 4.6s and go to the Hall. Small guys can't do that in the NFL. If you're Wright's size you'd better be really fast. (And feel free to point out any counter examples.)IMO what we knew before today was his football speed against college players. If that time holds (and the final times aren't released for another week or two) you can put a fork in Wright - at least in terms of being a big-play NFL WR. No one his size will ever be an NFL playmaker running a 4.61. There may be a role for him, but he's not worth a first round pick.

And you're asking the wrong questions IMO. Do you know how HARD it is to have your best time on two different runs be a full 1/10th of a second off your actual ability? The entire range of times today for WRs was, what, .30 seconds? A tenth is huge given the controlled environment and methodology in Indianapolis (same track each year, no wind, constant temperature, same guy watching the starts to ensure they're standard, same methodology for timing -- two hand-held, one electronic that's started with by hand, each runner gets to choose when he starts). People act like a tenth of a second is some sort of impossibly small unit of time and the measurement error is a quarter second or something. It's not.

I'd give you a couple hundredths, but Wright is about two tenths slower than he needed to be to have a shot at making it big in the NFL. (Again, I'm assuming that ~4.61 holds.)

Welker ran a 4.61 and he's made a few plays.

Wright won't be used in the same role as Welker. Apples to oranges.Someone noted that Wright stumbled off the block and was straining himself too hard, that he wasn't relaxed.

Wrights time is concerning cuz his game is built on speed, but anyone that writes him off or says he's never gonna make it is kidding themselves. Same way Stephen hill isn't a stud cuz he's big and fast. It's just a time.

Wright's speed and explosiveness stand out in games. And if he comes out and runs a good time at his pro day, everyone will forget about this, just like joe Haden 2 years ago

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Great, great post coolnerd. Really agree with that - most of the time the NCAA and Indy work matches up. And IMO most of the early pick busts are when teams ignore one and fall in love with the other when they don't jibe.

And I'm not saying there's no role for Wright in the NFL, just that he won't be a big play WR#1 type. If you want to bank on him being the next Wes Welker (and also playing in an historic passing offense with a HOF QB) I have no objection to it.

FWIW... the two first round picks I've got with profiles that at least sort of fit Wright's are Peter Warrick (a tidy fit) and Troy Edwards (less good). Not exactly what I'd be looking for in exchange for my 1st round pick. At the very least there are players with less bust risk IMO. Again YMMV.

As for 'stumbled'... there's a guy at the start watching everyone who runs to make sure it's a clean forty. If the runner stumbles, or if they even appear to have a problem, they get a do-over. And everyone gets two runs, with the best of the two being the one that gets recorded as the official time (actually six times are recorded and the best is kept). So the simplest and most likely explanation for a slow time is that it's a slow runner.

If someone wants to point out a small WR who ran slow and succeeded as a traditional top-end WR in the NFL for at least a few years I'm all ears. Until then I'm sticking with: small + slow = bad combination for WRs in the NFL.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Running in a straight line without pads without defenders doesn't define players.

WR's especially need to be able to run in and out of breaks/routes/away from defenders.

Stephen Hill can do the first, not the second.

Kendall Wright can do the second, not the first.