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NFL Draft Prospects: Underrated/Overrated (1 Viewer)

ConstruxBoy

Kate's Daddy
I like to compare rankings of draft prospects to see who is underrated and overrated by the average fan:

QB:

Underrated - E Ainge

Overrated - A Woodson, D Dixon

RB:

Underrated - R Rice, M Forte

Overrated - C Johnson, S Slaton

WR:

Underrated - A Caldwell, D Avery, D Thomas

Overrated - L Sweed, M Manningham, L Hawkins

 
Currently according to mocks I'm seeing...

QB:

Underrated: Brian Brohm

Overrated: Joe Flacco

RB:

Underrated: R. Rice

Overrated: D. McFadden

WR:

Underrated: M Manningham, E Bennett

Overrated: D. Jackson, Hardy, D Thomas

 
WR: Underrated - A Caldwell, D Avery, D ThomasOverrated - L Sweed, M Manningham, L Hawkins
I love this list.Here's mine...QB:Over - Joe FlaccoUnder - Brian Brohm, Chad HenneRB:Over - Darren McFadden, Jamaal CharlesUnder - Tashard Choice, Matt Forte, Ray RiceWR:Over - James Hardy, Limas Sweed Under - Early Doucet, Earl Bennett, Andre CaldwellTE:Under - All of them. Nice crop of pass catching TE's this year.
 
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I like to compare rankings of draft prospects to see who is underrated and overrated by the average fan:QB:Underrated - E AingeOverrated - A Woodson, D DixonRB:Underrated - R Rice, M ForteOverrated - C Johnson, S SlatonWR: Underrated - A Caldwell, D Avery, D ThomasOverrated - L Sweed, M Manningham, L Hawkins
Woodson, Dixon, and Slaton are all expected to go no higher than the 3rd round and may slide a lot further. Not sure how that equates to being overrated.Agree on Ainge.
 
I like to compare rankings of draft prospects to see who is underrated and overrated by the average fan:QB:Underrated - E AingeOverrated - A Woodson, D DixonRB:Underrated - R Rice, M ForteOverrated - C Johnson, S SlatonWR: Underrated - A Caldwell, D Avery, D ThomasOverrated - L Sweed, M Manningham, L Hawkins
Woodson, Dixon, and Slaton are all expected to go no higher than the 3rd round and may slide a lot further. Not sure how that equates to being overrated.Agree on Ainge.
Basically I'm doing this by gathering all the sources of rankings I use (a number of which aren't out yet) and then comparing the whole with those sources I trust more. So these "experts" have the underrated guys ranked higher than the crowd and the overrated guys ranked lower than the crowd. Really has nothing to do with their draft spot, per se.
 
I'm assuming we're talking over/underrated in fantasy circles?

And can anyone provide an ADP or at least an order of some sort of Rookie Draft so we have a list of which to base what is considered over/underrated?

 
I'm assuming we're talking over/underrated in fantasy circles?And can anyone provide an ADP or at least an order of some sort of Rookie Draft so we have a list of which to base what is considered over/underrated?
See Post 5. I'm basing this on draft rankings. I'm wondering if people agree with my list or not and what their ideas are for over/underrated based on NFL prospects.
 
I'm assuming we're talking over/underrated in fantasy circles?And can anyone provide an ADP or at least an order of some sort of Rookie Draft so we have a list of which to base what is considered over/underrated?
See Post 5. I'm basing this on draft rankings. I'm wondering if people agree with my list or not and what their ideas are for over/underrated based on NFL prospects.
I tihnk you'd have to supply the "crowd" rankings. Otherwise, it's not possible to compare. We may all be using a different "crowd" rankings.
 
I like to compare rankings of draft prospects to see who is underrated and overrated by the average fan:

QB:

Underrated - E Ainge

Overrated - A Woodson, D Dixon

RB:

Underrated - R Rice, M Forte

Overrated - C Johnson, S Slaton

WR:

Underrated - A Caldwell, D Avery, D Thomas

Overrated - L Sweed, M Manningham, L Hawkins
Woodson, Dixon, and Slaton are all expected to go no higher than the 3rd round and may slide a lot further. Not sure how that equates to being overrated.Agree on Ainge.
Basically I'm doing this by gathering all the sources of rankings I use (a number of which aren't out yet) and then comparing the whole with those sources I trust more. So these "experts" have the underrated guys ranked higher than the crowd and the overrated guys ranked lower than the crowd. Really has nothing to do with their draft spot, per se.
Okay, but where are you seeing the players ranked that your labeling over or underrated? Beause I see Slaton falling to the very late second day and ranked in the deep teens. I see Thomas discussed as a first rounder in almost every mock. Ray Rice gets big love usually in the top four to six? You have him higher than four? Dixon is out of a very high percentage of top 10s. How is he overrated? Just sayin'.I think Booty is an overrated QB.

I think Felix is a slightly overrated RB, but I like him. I just don't see him a clear #4. I see him in a big tier.

I think most of the WRs are a little overrated as a group, and the order is so wishy washy everywhere sometimes one guy is overrated sometimes another. I see nothing approaching a consensus order to concur or disagree with.

I think Manningham is being underrated in general and today he'll start moving back up. I'm actually hoping he stands on his Combine today. :thumbdown:

 
Bah, forget it. Bad topic. Sorry guys.
I didn't think so. You must have picked the one day of the year the SP decided to go all intellectual.
Well I'm not one of those.QB Over - FlaccoQB Under - Henne, BrennanRB Over - Felix JonesRB Under - Mike Hart, Kevin Smith (reminds me of Chris Warren)WR Over - DeSean JacksonWR Under - Bennett, Doucet
I like this list. At least I have a good idea how these characters are being rated in general.Construx this is an excellent topic in a very foggy year that makes it a difficult topic. I'd just like to see the "rating" that is over or under reality be discussed, becuase I see Manningham from 3 to 17 out there. :popcorn: So, I think it is easier to understand like this.Flacco in the top three is overrating him.Henne out of the top five is underrating him.Desean with the first round receivers is a mistake.etc.
 
So, I think it is easier to understand like this.Flacco in the top three is overrating him.Henne out of the top five is underrating him.Desean with the first round receivers is a mistake.etc.
Pretty much. Maybe if we were to add the projected rounds we're basing these on?QB Over - Flacco (2nd)QB Under - Henne (3rd), Brennan (undrafted)RB Over - Felix Jones (1st-2nd)RB Under - Mike Hart (late), Kevin Smith (3rd-4th)WR Over - DeSean Jackson (1st - I've seen him as early as 1.12)WR Under - Bennett (3rd), Doucet (2nd-3rd)
 
Under: The 4-5 RBs not named McFadden, Mendenhall, Stewart with 1st day talent (Rice, Smith, Charles, Forte)

My Ahmad Bradshaw/Young/Mike Bell Picks for 08: Boyd and Omon

Over: McFadden

Under WR: Burton, Bennett, Bowman (getting downgraded too much)

Over WR: Manningham, Hawkins, Doucet (slightly--comparing him with Hines Ward is a somewhat of an insult to Hines Ward)

Under TEs: Kellen Davis, Tamme, Haynos.

Over: None that I can think off. This is a pretty solid group football-wise.

Over QB: None (I think these guys are truly seen as what they are and won't be reached for)

Under: Maybe Ainge...he has higher ceiling and should have a chance to develop over time.

 
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Bah, forget it. Bad topic. Sorry guys.
I didn't think so. You must have picked the one day of the year the SP decided to go all intellectual.
Well I'm not one of those.QB Over - FlaccoQB Under - Henne, BrennanRB Over - Felix JonesRB Under - Mike Hart, Kevin Smith (reminds me of Chris Warren)WR Over - DeSean JacksonWR Under - Bennett, Doucet
I like this list. At least I have a good idea how these characters are being rated in general.Construx this is an excellent topic in a very foggy year that makes it a difficult topic. I'd just like to see the "rating" that is over or under reality be discussed, becuase I see Manningham from 3 to 17 out there. :lmao:
Well, it's more that I don't want to reveal them, LOL. Let's take Andre Caldwell. I have 11 different rankings for him, with an average rank among WRs of 9.82. Of those 11 sets of rankings, there are 3 I trust more than the others. Those 3 have an average ranking of 6.00. So I view him as underrated because the "crowd" has him lower than the "experts". Basically, this was a silly thing to post because people can't react to it.
 
Bah, forget it. Bad topic. Sorry guys.
I didn't think so. You must have picked the one day of the year the SP decided to go all intellectual.
Well I'm not one of those.QB Over - Flacco

QB Under - Henne, Brennan

RB Over - Felix Jones

RB Under - Mike Hart, Kevin Smith (reminds me of Chris Warren)

WR Over - DeSean Jackson

WR Under - Bennett, Doucet
I like this list. At least I have a good idea how these characters are being rated in general.Construx this is an excellent topic in a very foggy year that makes it a difficult topic. I'd just like to see the "rating" that is over or under reality be discussed, becuase I see Manningham from 3 to 17 out there. :shrug:
Well, it's more that I don't want to reveal them, LOL. Let's take Andre Caldwell. I have 11 different rankings for him, with an average rank among WRs of 9.82. Of those 11 sets of rankings, there are 3 I trust more than the others. Those 3 have an average ranking of 6.00. So I view him as underrated because the "crowd" has him lower than the "experts".

Basically, this was a silly thing to post because people can't react to it.
If you take a gig at DraftGuys you better be prepared to be a source of information and reveal, bro.
 
I agree with a lot of these calls. Does that make me an expert? :goodposting:

I am keeping most of "my guys" under wraps until I've had a chance to draft a few of them, but I have no problem spilling the beans on players I don't like. I think Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton will be disappointments for FF owners expecting workhorse runners. I have them lumped in with Jamaal Charles in a tier of blazing fast scat backs who are probably too thin to carry the load.

I think Sweed is also overrated. He's a fluid athlete with decent skills, but at the end of the day is he really a special talent? I don't think so. He wasn't half the player Roy was at Texas and Roy is a fringe top 10 WR in the NFL. Sweed is this year's Michael Jenkins with a little more hype. I like several other WRs more than him at this point.

Ainge is a guy I've been tracking since his first college season. He has a lot of things going for him. He's a big guy and he has tons of experience against tough competition. At the same time, there seems to be something missing there. He hasn't impressed scouts in the postseason. It will be interesting to see how high he goes. He might have some Schaub potential, but right now I'm looking at him as a longshot.

 
How about on the defensive side?...

DE

Over - Calais Campbell

Under - Lawrence Jackson

DT - I agree with most consensus rankings

LB:

Over - Erin Henderson, Xavier Adibi

Under - Keith Rivers, Tavares Gooden, Jerod Mayo

DB:

Over - Aqib Talib, Tracy Porter, Kenny Phillips

Under - Antoine Cason, Charles Godfrey, Thomas DeCoud

 
Andy Dufresne said:
How about on the defensive side?...DEOver - Calais CampbellUnder - Lawrence JacksonDT - I agree with most consensus rankingsLB:Over - Erin Henderson, Xavier AdibiUnder - Keith Rivers, Tavares Gooden, Jerod MayoDB:Over - Aqib Talib, Tracy Porter, Kenny PhillipsUnder - Antoine Cason, Charles Godfrey, Thomas DeCoud
I have a similar problem here. Campbell is seen as a late first or second rounder? Is that overrating him? Jackson is generally tabbed as a second rounder is that underrating him? Since they're both relatively closely rated are you saying you prefer Jackson to Campbell? Just curious. I think both of them are overrated in an overrated class that isn't as good as many hope. The dropoff at DE is severe and early. Some scouts said Mayo locked up a first rounder with his workout? Is that underrated? Rivers is in the early teens in almost every mock, but you see him as underrated? By who? Me and Bloom? We're outliers. Adibi is being talked about as a safety and a late second or 3rd rounder. This kid's stock is low. How low should it go? Sorry to be such a pain but these lists need some sort of explanation of the "rating" you disagree with. Can we possibly discuss perceived ratings instead of tossing out confusing lists? Please?
 
EBF said:
I think Sweed is also overrated. He's a fluid athlete with decent skills, but at the end of the day is he really a special talent? I don't think so. He wasn't half the player Roy was at Texas and Roy is a fringe top 10 WR in the NFL. Sweed is this year's Michael Jenkins with a little more hype. I like several other WRs more than him at this point.
As an example. I am very high on Sweed in this class, but I happen to agree on EBF's take here. Sweed should not be mentioned in the same breath as Roy, and Michael Jenkins is a great compare. I just see the whole lot of WRs as a bit hyped and overrated... so Sweed rates high among them, but I'm not holding my breath to draft him, that's for sure.
 
Chaos Commish said:
ConstruxBoy said:
Chaos Commish said:
Orgazmo said:
Andy Dufresne said:
ConstruxBoy said:
Bah, forget it. Bad topic. Sorry guys.
I didn't think so. You must have picked the one day of the year the SP decided to go all intellectual.
Well I'm not one of those.QB Over - Flacco

QB Under - Henne, Brennan

RB Over - Felix Jones

RB Under - Mike Hart, Kevin Smith (reminds me of Chris Warren)

WR Over - DeSean Jackson

WR Under - Bennett, Doucet
I like this list. At least I have a good idea how these characters are being rated in general.Construx this is an excellent topic in a very foggy year that makes it a difficult topic. I'd just like to see the "rating" that is over or under reality be discussed, becuase I see Manningham from 3 to 17 out there. :loco:
Well, it's more that I don't want to reveal them, LOL. Let's take Andre Caldwell. I have 11 different rankings for him, with an average rank among WRs of 9.82. Of those 11 sets of rankings, there are 3 I trust more than the others. Those 3 have an average ranking of 6.00. So I view him as underrated because the "crowd" has him lower than the "experts".

Basically, this was a silly thing to post because people can't react to it.
If you take a gig at DraftGuys you better be prepared to be a source of information and reveal, bro.
LOL, well I can't reveal pay sources though. And they already have a guy there that does a huge spreadsheet with different rankings. But some of the rankings are from the guys there. I'd love to add yours in here, when are you sending them to me?
 
I have a similar problem here. Campbell is seen as a late first or second rounder? Is that overrating him?

Jackson is generally tabbed as a second rounder is that underrating him?

Since they're both relatively closely rated are you saying you prefer Jackson to Campbell? Just curious.
Yes. Yes. And Yes.
Some scouts said Mayo locked up a first rounder with his workout? Is that underrated?
Some have said so, but I think the general perception hasn't caught up.
Rivers is in the early teens in almost every mock, but you see him as underrated? By who? Me and Bloom? We're outliers.
That's more reflective of my belief that the linebacker position as a whole is underrated. I've said it a million times, but wouldn't the Lions have been better off taking Patrick Willis too high than Calvin Johnson at the right spot.
Adibi is being talked about as a safety and a late second or 3rd rounder. This kid's stock is low. How low should it go?
Very few are talking about a position change. And even so, when was the last time you saw someone successfully make a position change from linebacker to safety? The reverse, sure, but not this. Remeber what happened to the "Tweener" Darnell Bing?
Sorry to be such a pain but these lists need some sort of explanation of the "rating" you disagree with. Can we possibly discuss perceived ratings instead of tossing out confusing lists? Please?
You're too knee deep in the "experts" rating. This thread is more about the general consensus - at least that's how I took it, since CB started the thread with "I like to compare rankings of draft prospects to see who is underrated and overrated by the average fan:"
 
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ConstruxBoy said:
I like to compare rankings of draft prospects to see who is underrated and overrated by the average fan:QB:Underrated - E AingeOverrated - A Woodson, D Dixon RB:Underrated - R.Rice, M.ForteOverrated - C Johnson, S SlatonWR: Underrated - A Caldwell, D Avery, D ThomasOverrated - L Sweed, M Manningham, L Hawkins
Some of these names I do agree with, but just to throw in some more guys (and a few different takes), this is my list.QB:Underrated - E.Ainge, D.DixonOverrated - M.Ryan, C.BrennanRB:Underrated - J.Forsett, B.Green-Ellis, Kevin Smith, T.TempleOverrated - C.Johnson, S.Slaton, R.MendenhallWR:Underrated - A.Caldwell, L.Hawkins, K.Burton, A.ArringtonOverrated - J.Hardy, E.Doucet, E.RoyalTE:Underrated - J.Tamme, B.Cottam, Mike Peterson, B.ListortiOverrated - J.Carlson, Jerm.Finley, Kellen Davis
 
I have a similar problem here. Campbell is seen as a late first or second rounder? Is that overrating him?

Jackson is generally tabbed as a second rounder is that underrating him?

Since they're both relatively closely rated are you saying you prefer Jackson to Campbell? Just curious.
Yes. Yes. And Yes.
Some scouts said Mayo locked up a first rounder with his workout? Is that underrated?
Some have said so, but I think the general perception hasn't caught up.
Rivers is in the early teens in almost every mock, but you see him as underrated? By who? Me and Bloom? We're outliers.
That's more reflective of my belief that the linebacker position as a whole is underrated. I've said it a million times, but wouldn't the Lions have been better off taking Patrick Willis too high than Calvin Johnson at the right spot.
Adibi is being talked about as a safety and a late second or 3rd rounder. This kid's stock is low. How low should it go?
Very few are talking about a position change. And even so, when was the last time you saw someone successfully make a position change from linebacker to safety? The reverse, sure, but not this. Remeber what happened to the "Tweener" Darnell Bing?
Sorry to be such a pain but these lists need some sort of explanation of the "rating" you disagree with. Can we possibly discuss perceived ratings instead of tossing out confusing lists? Please?
You're too knee deep in the "experts" rating. This thread is more about the general consensus - at least that's how I took it, since CB started the thread with "I like to compare rankings of draft prospects to see who is underrated and overrated by the average fan:"
No. I am only reading local journalists and average joe mocks. Construx is the one going on expert ratings he prefers to keep a mystery. I have no subscriber information, I am not paying attention to the free sites, and I missed most of the all-star games this year. He is comparing his expert ranking lists to average fans, but average fans have no consensus as far as I can tell accept for some very limited and basic stuff regarding the elite top ten to 20 players. Anyone outside of them could be either over or underrated by the average joes. On the DEs. I think Jackson is a poser. No explosiveness, some serious motivational problems and quite limited athletically. Campbell is a little better. I think he has a shot at this thing, but barely and I am not at all positive about his prospects. Both are wasted draft picks at a valuable position that is weak and shallow this year.

I see Mayo late first early second in average joe mocks, and since the Pro Day, round one is becoming a strong rumor. I'm just wondering where you rate him if this is underrated?

I agree on Rivers and the LB take, but I have a feeling he's no Ernie Sims. Rivers really misses a ton of plays and he's a little soft. Talented but soft. I'm all over the place on this guy but the average joes see him as elite top twenty. You think he should be top 10 like Willis?

Anyway, it is a good thread. A little difficult to understand where people are coming from when ratings are all over the place and the OP won't share his.

Contrux, as far as my ratings are concerned this year will probably be the Bramel method, tiers with name alphabetized is all I got. I'm seeing sure things, maybes and no ways. Ordering those tiers is a task I doubt I could accomplish with any conviction. I'm sure I'll try eventually.

 
I see Mayo late first early second in average joe mocks, and since the Pro Day, round one is becoming a strong rumor. I'm just wondering where you rate him if this is underrated?
I haven't seen him that high. I think that's about right. I'd seen him late 2nd/3rd round and at that point I think he's underrated.
I agree on Rivers and the LB take, but I have a feeling he's no Ernie Sims. Rivers really misses a ton of plays and he's a little soft. Talented but soft. I'm all over the place on this guy but the average joes see him as elite top twenty. You think he should be top 10 like Willis?
Not necessarily with the teams picking in those spots. In a different year, yes, possibly.
 
I have a similar problem here. Campbell is seen as a late first or second rounder? Is that overrating him?

Jackson is generally tabbed as a second rounder is that underrating him?

Since they're both relatively closely rated are you saying you prefer Jackson to Campbell? Just curious.
Yes. Yes. And Yes.
Some scouts said Mayo locked up a first rounder with his workout? Is that underrated?
Some have said so, but I think the general perception hasn't caught up.
Rivers is in the early teens in almost every mock, but you see him as underrated? By who? Me and Bloom? We're outliers.
That's more reflective of my belief that the linebacker position as a whole is underrated. I've said it a million times, but wouldn't the Lions have been better off taking Patrick Willis too high than Calvin Johnson at the right spot.
Adibi is being talked about as a safety and a late second or 3rd rounder. This kid's stock is low. How low should it go?
Very few are talking about a position change. And even so, when was the last time you saw someone successfully make a position change from linebacker to safety? The reverse, sure, but not this. Remeber what happened to the "Tweener" Darnell Bing?
Sorry to be such a pain but these lists need some sort of explanation of the "rating" you disagree with. Can we possibly discuss perceived ratings instead of tossing out confusing lists? Please?
You're too knee deep in the "experts" rating. This thread is more about the general consensus - at least that's how I took it, since CB started the thread with "I like to compare rankings of draft prospects to see who is underrated and overrated by the average fan:"
No. I am only reading local journalists and average joe mocks. Construx is the one going on expert ratings he prefers to keep a mystery. I have no subscriber information, I am not paying attention to the free sites, and I missed most of the all-star games this year. He is comparing his expert ranking lists to average fans, but average fans have no consensus as far as I can tell accept for some very limited and basic stuff regarding the elite top ten to 20 players. Anyone outside of them could be either over or underrated by the average joes. On the DEs. I think Jackson is a poser. No explosiveness, some serious motivational problems and quite limited athletically. Campbell is a little better. I think he has a shot at this thing, but barely and I am not at all positive about his prospects. Both are wasted draft picks at a valuable position that is weak and shallow this year.

I see Mayo late first early second in average joe mocks, and since the Pro Day, round one is becoming a strong rumor. I'm just wondering where you rate him if this is underrated?

I agree on Rivers and the LB take, but I have a feeling he's no Ernie Sims. Rivers really misses a ton of plays and he's a little soft. Talented but soft. I'm all over the place on this guy but the average joes see him as elite top twenty. You think he should be top 10 like Willis?

Anyway, it is a good thread. A little difficult to understand where people are coming from when ratings are all over the place and the OP won't share his.

Contrux, as far as my ratings are concerned this year will probably be the Bramel method, tiers with name alphabetized is all I got. I'm seeing sure things, maybes and no ways. Ordering those tiers is a task I doubt I could accomplish with any conviction. I'm sure I'll try eventually.
LOL, geez if you aren't a pain in the ###. Here's what I have:

1 Matt Ryan

2 Brian Brohm

3 Chad Henne

4 Joe Flacco

5 Andre Woodson

6 John David Booty

7 Josh Johnson

8 Eric Ainge

9 Colt Brennan

10 Dennis Dixon

1 Darren McFadden

2 Jonathan Stewart

3 Rashard Mendenhall

4 Felix Jones

5 Ray Rice

6 Jamaal Charles

7 Chris Johnson

8 Kevin Smith

9 Matt Forte

10 Steve Slaton

1 Malcom Kelly

2 DeSean Jackson

3 Limas Sweed

4 Early Doucet

5 Devin Thomas

6 James Hardy

7 Mario Manningham

8 Earl Bennett

9 Andre Caldwell

10 Donny Avery

11 Lavelle Hawkins

 
I have a similar problem here. Campbell is seen as a late first or second rounder? Is that overrating him?

Jackson is generally tabbed as a second rounder is that underrating him?

Since they're both relatively closely rated are you saying you prefer Jackson to Campbell? Just curious.
Yes. Yes. And Yes.
Some scouts said Mayo locked up a first rounder with his workout? Is that underrated?
Some have said so, but I think the general perception hasn't caught up.
Rivers is in the early teens in almost every mock, but you see him as underrated? By who? Me and Bloom? We're outliers.
That's more reflective of my belief that the linebacker position as a whole is underrated. I've said it a million times, but wouldn't the Lions have been better off taking Patrick Willis too high than Calvin Johnson at the right spot.
Adibi is being talked about as a safety and a late second or 3rd rounder. This kid's stock is low. How low should it go?
Very few are talking about a position change. And even so, when was the last time you saw someone successfully make a position change from linebacker to safety? The reverse, sure, but not this. Remeber what happened to the "Tweener" Darnell Bing?
Sorry to be such a pain but these lists need some sort of explanation of the "rating" you disagree with. Can we possibly discuss perceived ratings instead of tossing out confusing lists? Please?
You're too knee deep in the "experts" rating. This thread is more about the general consensus - at least that's how I took it, since CB started the thread with "I like to compare rankings of draft prospects to see who is underrated and overrated by the average fan:"
No. I am only reading local journalists and average joe mocks. Construx is the one going on expert ratings he prefers to keep a mystery. I have no subscriber information, I am not paying attention to the free sites, and I missed most of the all-star games this year. He is comparing his expert ranking lists to average fans, but average fans have no consensus as far as I can tell accept for some very limited and basic stuff regarding the elite top ten to 20 players. Anyone outside of them could be either over or underrated by the average joes. On the DEs. I think Jackson is a poser. No explosiveness, some serious motivational problems and quite limited athletically. Campbell is a little better. I think he has a shot at this thing, but barely and I am not at all positive about his prospects. Both are wasted draft picks at a valuable position that is weak and shallow this year.

I see Mayo late first early second in average joe mocks, and since the Pro Day, round one is becoming a strong rumor. I'm just wondering where you rate him if this is underrated?

I agree on Rivers and the LB take, but I have a feeling he's no Ernie Sims. Rivers really misses a ton of plays and he's a little soft. Talented but soft. I'm all over the place on this guy but the average joes see him as elite top twenty. You think he should be top 10 like Willis?

Anyway, it is a good thread. A little difficult to understand where people are coming from when ratings are all over the place and the OP won't share his.

Contrux, as far as my ratings are concerned this year will probably be the Bramel method, tiers with name alphabetized is all I got. I'm seeing sure things, maybes and no ways. Ordering those tiers is a task I doubt I could accomplish with any conviction. I'm sure I'll try eventually.
LOL, geez if you aren't a pain in the ###. Here's what I have:

1 Matt Ryan

2 Brian Brohm

3 Chad Henne

4 Joe Flacco

5 Andre Woodson

6 John David Booty

7 Josh Johnson

8 Eric Ainge

9 Colt Brennan

10 Dennis Dixon

1 Darren McFadden

2 Jonathan Stewart, Wow. Even with the surgery? :bag:

3 Rashard Mendenhall

4 Felix Jones

5 Ray Rice

6 Jamaal Charles

7 Chris Johnson

8 Kevin Smith

9 Matt Forte

10 Steve Slaton

1 Malcom Kelly

2 DeSean Jackson

3 Limas Sweed

4 Early Doucet

5 Devin Thomas

6 James Hardy

7 Mario Manningham

8 Earl Bennett

9 Andre Caldwell

10 Donny Avery

11 Lavelle Hawkins
 
QB:

Under: Dixon, Josh Johnson

Over: Brohm

I really like Dixon and, as others have mentioned in other threads, he had an outstanding game against Michigan as a passer. I'm not sure he'll cut it in the NFL at QB, but I think he's a valuable player regardless. Not sure if Johnson is actually underrated, per se, but I love his potential.

Not sold on Brohm. Didn't like what he did with his senior year - too many picks and he just didn't stand out to me compared to the hype that came with him as a Heisman hopeful, etc.

RB:

Under: Green-Ellis, Hart

Over: McFadden, Kevin Smith

On Hart, it all depends on where he goes.. as far as where he's ranked in most people's lists here on the boards, it's probably about right. If he goes in the 5th/6th/7th round I think he's underrated and a heckuva pick at that point in the draft. Green-Ellis seems like the kind of guy who could do something with an opportunity if he gets one. Bloom and Cecil's recent draftguy.tv profile on him was spot on.

I think McFadden is a special player, but I'd rather have the 2nd/3rd/4th pick in this year's rookie draft than the top pick. Kevin Smith doesn't seem to have the vision I would hope for, but if he goes in the 3rd/4th round I suppose he's not really overvalued. I keep seeing him in the top 5 - 7 on a lot of lists around the web and that's probably too high for me.

WR:

Under: Devin Thomas, Dexter Jackson

Over: Sweed, Caldwell

I think Thomas is going to be a very good pro. He's probably not under-rated for most folks here. I've seen him as high as 2nd/3rd in some people's rankings, but much lower in others. Earlier in the year I went back and forth on him and Manningham, but I think Thomas' upside is higher.

Sweed - everybody has basically said it already. He looks the part, but I'm unimpressed. Caldwell is fast, but I just don't see it with him either. Both have good measurables, but they just seem to be lacking that something special.

TE:

Under: Kellen Davis

Over: none

Davis is a physical specimen. The question becomes whether a team likes him as a DE more than a TE, and if he can consistently make plays. He comes from the same HS I went to, so I've watched him since he was 16. He could've put up much better numbers at MSU if he had a halfway decent QB. He could be a big playmaker if he could develop consistency and improve on the little things. That's what is holding back IMO.

 
One wr I think is largely overlooked is Jordy Nelson. I am not deluded into thinking he is a legit wr1 prospect, but the former Kansas State star could be a very good wr2 for some teams. Many questioned his timed speed going into the combine. He plays pretty fast in the games I saw.

 
QB

Over - Matt Ryan - He may be the best of this class, but he isn't a #1 overall pick, IMO

Under - Henne & Brohm - from the penthouse to the outhouse in one season

RB

Over - J. Charles and Chris Johnson - are they the same person?

Under - BenJarvis Green-Ellis and Ray Rice - run hard and carried their teams.

WR

Under - Will Franklin - flying way under the radar after running a 4.37 at the combine and then putting up a 40'+ vertical at his pro day. This guy is going to make someone very happy in the 3rd round of the draft.

TE

Under - Martin Rucker - hurt his hammy and hasn't been able to run or do much of anything to impress the general public.

 
LOL, geez if you aren't a pain in the ###.
Sorry, but I needed to understand! So thanks for these.

Here's what I have:

1 Matt Ryan

2 Brian Brohm

3 Chad Henne

4 Joe Flacco

5 Andre Woodson

6 John David Booty

7 Josh Johnson

8 Eric Ainge

9 Colt Brennan

10 Dennis Dixon
I have a tier or 6 QBs adding Dixon to the first 5. I think they represent the best possible starter material. I have Dixon over Woodson otherwise the lists would be the same, but like I said. I have little conviction here and could see any of them as the best of class. Even Dixon. Both kids from San Diego, Ainge and Brennan make another tier of maybes. Johnson, O'Connell, Ainge Brennan is how I would list them if I had to, but situation will probably change that. I have almost no interest in any other QB in this draft, but I still kind of like Santos and Brink. Booty will get a shot. I'm predicting he fails in prime time. So he's overrated and O'Connell is underrated.
1 Darren McFadden

2 Jonathan Stewart

3 Rashard Mendenhall

4 Felix Jones

5 Ray Rice

6 Jamaal Charles

7 Chris Johnson

8 Kevin Smith

9 Matt Forte

10 Steve Slaton
The first three make a tier. Get rid of Slaton and put Choice in and the next 7 make a tier. So yes, Slaton is overrated, sorry to say, and Choice is underrated. Forte has won me over and I would suggest he is also underrated within the tier at #9, but that's nitpicking to me. Swap him with Felix who is probably a little overrated and I could probably have a list I'm comfortable with, but I would slip Choice in the middle of those names somewhere and rank Felix 10. I'm surprised to say that, so this is a good exercise. Mostly, and to be clear, I really like these backs and this #10 thing is no disrespect to Felix. His situation could quickly move him to #4, and that's true of any of them.
1 Malcom Kelly

2 DeSean Jackson

3 Limas Sweed

4 Early Doucet

5 Devin Thomas

6 James Hardy

7 Mario Manningham

8 Earl Bennett

9 Andre Caldwell

10 Donny Avery

11 Lavelle Hawkins
These guys are impossible. Tonight I think Manningham is going to have the biggest impact, so I've gone full circle over his Pro Day and regret ever agreeing he was overrated. Tomorrow it will be someone else. Hardy, Jackson, Kelly and Sweed are all obviously worth a look. Burton is above Hawkins and Avery for me. Bennett is the kind of name I'm looking for in round three if I get lucky. Manningham is underrated.

Hardy is underrated.

Burton is underrated.

They're all overrated a bit, but I have yet to fully come to terms with Kelly, who could be possible elite material, which I feel Hardy could be too.

:goodposting:

 
QB

Over rated - Brian Brohm, yes his value which has fallen to the later 1st and maybe even the 2nd is still over rated. He is a product of the system. His play last year in a more pro style offense showed me he does not have what it takes to be an NFL QB. If Joe Flacco truly does become a late 1st rounder/early 2nd rounder I'd lump him in here too. I like my small school guys, but not this early; give me Josh Johnson two rounds later.

Under rated - Chad Henne, the best QB in this draft

Final notes - Captain Checkdown (Erik Ainge) is a career backup

RB

Over rated - Jamaal Charles = Tatum Bell, I'm still seeing him as a 2nd rounder and prefer at least a dozen other backs to him. I see Felix Jones in a similar light as another poster, someone to be included into the big heap at tier 2 but considering him the #4 RB in this draft is just screaming "think tank" to me. If you're looking for a change of pace back with feature back upside see...

Under rated - Justin Forsett, comparing him to Brian Westbrook would be an injustice to Brian Westbrook so I'll just say he is Westbrook Lite. Cory Boyd and Ben Jarvus Green are two later round RB's I will be keeping my eye on.

Final comments - I don't think most of the guys widely considered between #4 and #12 are over rated per se, I just think it may be best to wait until the 3rd, see what's left, and pickt he right guy for your scheme.

WR

Over rated - Limas Sweed, measurables are great but they don't catch the ball nor do they run good routes. James Hardy, for my money an upside project has to be significantly better than other alternatives available to warrant selection. Since Hardy is still in the late 1st/early 2nd discussion and I don't see his upside being any greater than several other guys in the same tier I'd say he is being over rated.

Under rated - Jordy Nelson, been pimping this kid since fall and will continue to do so until he breaks out. Will be a solid possession WR and could be a lot more.

Final comments - I had Earl Bennett, LaVelle Hawkins, Andre Caldwell, and Donnie Avery as potential sleepers but their stock seems to have increased to a level that I wouldn't characterize as under rated. I'm kin of disappointed to see my Adarius Bowman is a bust proclamations come to an end as his stock has come crashign down, but it's good to know I was right about the kid.

TE

Over rated - Fred Davis, not meant to be a slam on Davis, just don't think he has distinguished himself from the rest and think going another direction in round 1 and looking for a TE that slips through in the 2nd or 3rd would be a better draft strategy. Him being the #1 is once again screaming "think tank" to me.

Under rated - Martin Rucker, he's Dustin Keller with better on-the-field skills and a worse combine. I think Keller will be drafted ahead of Rucker, I think that would be a bad choice (once again, not slamming Keller, just think Rucker will be better).

Final comments - how can anyone characterize Jermichael Finley as over rated? He is far down all draft boards I've seen, I don't think he'll amoutn to much and for a project his measurables were not impressive but it's tough to consider a consensus day two pick over rated.

OT

Under rated - Still riding the Heath Benedict train, although I'd be happy to hope on Carl Nicks' if he can stay out of trouble for the next six weeks and falls to at least the end of round 2

DE

Thought I was the minority here, I believe this class is mediocre but deep. I find it difficult to categorize most as under or over valued because in most cases it is scheme dependent. I will say that if Calais Campbell is drafted in the first two rounds that team will have a bust on their hands. When he became the feature DE this season he crumbled under the pressure and couldn't perform, I see Quentin Moses all over again. I'm glad my Browns recognized the weak class and made their moves in free agency to address the DL, they weren't going to get much help from this class.

DT

Rankings have been too irratic for me to accurately assess when players are going. I don't think Kantwaan Balmer is worth a top 15 pick and don't think anyone else outside the top 2 should be a 1st rounder, lot of quality 2nd round talent though.

LB

Over rated - Dan Connor, he'll be a better fantasy player than real player, should put up good numbers but I don't think his play on the field will match others who are taken later. He's not strong in coverage and gets bottled up by blockers too easily. Although I do think he understands the game better than most and that could prove to be an invaluable asset in the locker room even if it doesn't translate on the field.

Under rated - Jonathon Goff = David Harris, I think he's a top 30 player, been seeing him go with frequency in the 2nd or 3rd. Tavares Gooden is going to be an elite pass rushing specialist at the next level. Shawn Crable will be a slightly less productive version of Gooden, neither of them should fall into the 2nd, both may fall as far as the 4th.

CB

Over rated - Tracy Porter = Dre Bly, he's not worth a day one selection, especially given the depth in this year's class.

Under rated - Brandon Flowers = Antoine Cason with a slightly slower 40 time, he should not go that much later than Cason and everything I've read indicates he will.

S

Under rated - Marcus Griffin, in a very weak class he is without a doubt #2 on my board.

 
1 Malcom Kelly

2 DeSean Jackson

3 Limas Sweed

4 Early Doucet

5 Devin Thomas

6 James Hardy

7 Mario Manningham

8 Earl Bennett

9 Andre Caldwell

10 Donny Avery

11 Lavelle Hawkins
These guys are impossible. Tonight I think Manningham is going to have the biggest impact, so I've gone full circle over his Pro Day and regret ever agreeing he was overrated. Tomorrow it will be someone else. Hardy, Jackson, Kelly and Sweed are all obviously worth a look. Burton is above Hawkins and Avery for me. Bennett is the kind of name I'm looking for in round three if I get lucky. Manningham is underrated.

Hardy is underrated.

Burton is underrated.

They're all overrated a bit, but I have yet to fully come to terms with Kelly, who could be possible elite material, which I feel Hardy could be too.

:nerd:
Michigan Pro Day notes

Speaking of those receivers, NFL types said both Manningham and Arrington helped themselves in yesterday's workout.

One scout for an AFC team who declined to be named said Manningham trimmed his 40-yard dash time from a 4.59 at the combine to about 4.45. Arrington pulled a hamstring about a week before the combine, but said he came back yesterday to post times between 4.5 and 4.56 in the 40-yard dash.
I'm glad Mario improved his 40 time. I heard several times that his time at the combine was due more to bad form than truly a lack of speed. He's not a burner though and it is hard to imagine why anyone wouldn't take the combine seriously enough to have those wrinkles ironed out. Manningham, to me, is the Terry Glenn of this class. If he gets on the right team with the right coach to keep him motivated, focused and hungry, then he could very well be the most productive in the class. He needs to keep his head on straight. He's not a prospect on the Torry Holt level, but he reminds me of him as well (high side comparison). If he improves the finer details of his game he could be a big-time WR. I'd love to see him land in Seattle.
 
I have a similar problem here. Campbell is seen as a late first or second rounder? Is that overrating him?

Jackson is generally tabbed as a second rounder is that underrating him?

Since they're both relatively closely rated are you saying you prefer Jackson to Campbell? Just curious.
Yes. Yes. And Yes.
Some scouts said Mayo locked up a first rounder with his workout? Is that underrated?
Some have said so, but I think the general perception hasn't caught up.
Rivers is in the early teens in almost every mock, but you see him as underrated? By who? Me and Bloom? We're outliers.
That's more reflective of my belief that the linebacker position as a whole is underrated. I've said it a million times, but wouldn't the Lions have been better off taking Patrick Willis too high than Calvin Johnson at the right spot.
Adibi is being talked about as a safety and a late second or 3rd rounder. This kid's stock is low. How low should it go?
Very few are talking about a position change. And even so, when was the last time you saw someone successfully make a position change from linebacker to safety? The reverse, sure, but not this. Remeber what happened to the "Tweener" Darnell Bing?
Sorry to be such a pain but these lists need some sort of explanation of the "rating" you disagree with. Can we possibly discuss perceived ratings instead of tossing out confusing lists? Please?
You're too knee deep in the "experts" rating. This thread is more about the general consensus - at least that's how I took it, since CB started the thread with "I like to compare rankings of draft prospects to see who is underrated and overrated by the average fan:"
No. I am only reading local journalists and average joe mocks. Construx is the one going on expert ratings he prefers to keep a mystery. I have no subscriber information, I am not paying attention to the free sites, and I missed most of the all-star games this year. He is comparing his expert ranking lists to average fans, but average fans have no consensus as far as I can tell accept for some very limited and basic stuff regarding the elite top ten to 20 players. Anyone outside of them could be either over or underrated by the average joes. On the DEs. I think Jackson is a poser. No explosiveness, some serious motivational problems and quite limited athletically. Campbell is a little better. I think he has a shot at this thing, but barely and I am not at all positive about his prospects. Both are wasted draft picks at a valuable position that is weak and shallow this year.

I see Mayo late first early second in average joe mocks, and since the Pro Day, round one is becoming a strong rumor. I'm just wondering where you rate him if this is underrated?

I agree on Rivers and the LB take, but I have a feeling he's no Ernie Sims. Rivers really misses a ton of plays and he's a little soft. Talented but soft. I'm all over the place on this guy but the average joes see him as elite top twenty. You think he should be top 10 like Willis?

Anyway, it is a good thread. A little difficult to understand where people are coming from when ratings are all over the place and the OP won't share his.

Contrux, as far as my ratings are concerned this year will probably be the Bramel method, tiers with name alphabetized is all I got. I'm seeing sure things, maybes and no ways. Ordering those tiers is a task I doubt I could accomplish with any conviction. I'm sure I'll try eventually.
LOL, geez if you aren't a pain in the ###. Here's what I have:

1 Matt Ryan

2 Brian Brohm

3 Chad Henne

4 Joe Flacco

5 Andre Woodson

6 John David Booty

7 Josh Johnson

8 Eric Ainge

9 Colt Brennan

10 Dennis Dixon

1 Darren McFadden

2 Jonathan Stewart

3 Rashard Mendenhall

4 Felix Jones

5 Ray Rice

6 Jamaal Charles

7 Chris Johnson

8 Kevin Smith

9 Matt Forte

10 Steve Slaton

1 Malcom Kelly

2 DeSean Jackson

3 Limas Sweed

4 Early Doucet

5 Devin Thomas

6 James Hardy

7 Mario Manningham

8 Earl Bennett

9 Andre Caldwell

10 Donny Avery

11 Lavelle Hawkins
Looks like Malcom Kelly moved way up your rankings board. Why is that?Sweed still too high, but it's looking better.

 
I have a similar problem here. Campbell is seen as a late first or second rounder? Is that overrating him?

Jackson is generally tabbed as a second rounder is that underrating him?

Since they're both relatively closely rated are you saying you prefer Jackson to Campbell? Just curious.
Yes. Yes. And Yes.
Some scouts said Mayo locked up a first rounder with his workout? Is that underrated?
Some have said so, but I think the general perception hasn't caught up.
Rivers is in the early teens in almost every mock, but you see him as underrated? By who? Me and Bloom? We're outliers.
That's more reflective of my belief that the linebacker position as a whole is underrated. I've said it a million times, but wouldn't the Lions have been better off taking Patrick Willis too high than Calvin Johnson at the right spot.
Adibi is being talked about as a safety and a late second or 3rd rounder. This kid's stock is low. How low should it go?
Very few are talking about a position change. And even so, when was the last time you saw someone successfully make a position change from linebacker to safety? The reverse, sure, but not this. Remeber what happened to the "Tweener" Darnell Bing?
Sorry to be such a pain but these lists need some sort of explanation of the "rating" you disagree with. Can we possibly discuss perceived ratings instead of tossing out confusing lists? Please?
You're too knee deep in the "experts" rating. This thread is more about the general consensus - at least that's how I took it, since CB started the thread with "I like to compare rankings of draft prospects to see who is underrated and overrated by the average fan:"
No. I am only reading local journalists and average joe mocks. Construx is the one going on expert ratings he prefers to keep a mystery. I have no subscriber information, I am not paying attention to the free sites, and I missed most of the all-star games this year. He is comparing his expert ranking lists to average fans, but average fans have no consensus as far as I can tell accept for some very limited and basic stuff regarding the elite top ten to 20 players. Anyone outside of them could be either over or underrated by the average joes. On the DEs. I think Jackson is a poser. No explosiveness, some serious motivational problems and quite limited athletically. Campbell is a little better. I think he has a shot at this thing, but barely and I am not at all positive about his prospects. Both are wasted draft picks at a valuable position that is weak and shallow this year.

I see Mayo late first early second in average joe mocks, and since the Pro Day, round one is becoming a strong rumor. I'm just wondering where you rate him if this is underrated?

I agree on Rivers and the LB take, but I have a feeling he's no Ernie Sims. Rivers really misses a ton of plays and he's a little soft. Talented but soft. I'm all over the place on this guy but the average joes see him as elite top twenty. You think he should be top 10 like Willis?

Anyway, it is a good thread. A little difficult to understand where people are coming from when ratings are all over the place and the OP won't share his.

Contrux, as far as my ratings are concerned this year will probably be the Bramel method, tiers with name alphabetized is all I got. I'm seeing sure things, maybes and no ways. Ordering those tiers is a task I doubt I could accomplish with any conviction. I'm sure I'll try eventually.
Not sayting that Mayo is underrated, not anymore, but there was a time when I didn't see him on practically anybody's radar. So where was the Mayo love back in late Sept. '07..........Allow me to show you......Dated Sept. 20, 2007 (see link below).....

Nice mock.

Here are 5 guys to certainly keep an eye on, they look to be on the rise and project well to the NFL. I would not be surprised to see all these guys in the 1st Rd next year. I believe at least 3 will be in the 1st Rd for sure.

1. Felix Jones RB Arkansas

McFadden's counterpart is also one very explosive runner. Will be a nice NFL RB best-suited for a two-headed monster scenario. Could be replacing another 'Jones' in Dallas if the Cowboys miss out on McFadden. Will be "Ultra-Lightning" to some other RB's "Thunder"

2. Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon

Thick-bodied, extraordinary inside runner with loads of potential. Not an ideal fit in his current college scheme ("Spread Offense), which is the primary reason this guy hasn't wowed everyone with his numbers. But as far as NFL prospects, this guy is certainly 1st Rd worthy. Looks to be in the mold of a Ronnie Brown type as far as style/skills, but let's hope he starts off his NFL career much better.

3. Dennis Dixon QB Oregon

A teammate of Stewart's, seemingly coming out of nowhere, IMO, this guy is right in the thick of the Heisman race after 3 weeks of the season. 65% comp, 7 TDs, 0 int, 90+ yds rushing per game (3 more TDs), 134 QB rating, led a nationally televised drubbing of Michigan. I saw him do some great things last season vs. Oklahoma also, which placed him on most people's radar. And dare I say, this guy reminds me a lot of VY........you heard it here first!

4. Jerod Mayo LB Tennessee

A major force who shows up all over the place during games. Plays like a slightly smaller Patrick Willis, as this guy brings the noise when he delivers a hit. If he declares, looks like a Top 15-20 pick for sure, IMO.

5. Tashard Choice RB Georgia Tech

Everyone's ranking of this guy projects him way too low. A very savvy, instinctive, and tough runner who not only looks the part but can carry the load. Runs a bit upright, but from what I see, he looks to be about the 4th/5th best RB who will be entering the 2008 draft..........no matter who enters.

Yeah, I probably missed the mark on Dixon and Choice, but now they can also be considered for my underrated list......... :thumbup:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...t&p=7379523

 
Underratered

QBs: E. Ainge, D. Dixon, C. Henne

RBs: M. Hart, K. Smith, C. Simpson

WRs: All that are out of the top 5 especially A. Bowman, A. Arrington, E. Royal

TEs: M. Bennett, J. Finley

Overrated

QBs: M. Ryan, J. Booty

RBs: R. Mendenhall

WRs: Desean Jackson, J. Simpson

TEs: None

I'll explain later.

 
Underratered

QBs: E. Ainge, D. Dixon, C. Henne

RBs: M. Hart, K. Smith, C. Simpson

WRs: All that are out of the top 5 especially A. Bowman, A. Arrington, E. Royal

TEs: M. Bennett, J. Finley

Overrated

QBs: M. Ryan, J. Booty

RBs: R. Mendenhall

WRs: Desean Jackson, J. Simpson

TEs: None

I'll explain later.
Nice list. :goodposting: I would add

Under:

RB-Stewart, He will not go in the top 3 in all rook drafts.

 
I think Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton will be disappointments for FF owners expecting workhorse runners. I have them lumped in with Jamaal Charles in a tier of blazing fast scat backs who are probably too thin to carry the load.
OUCH!Just kidding. If it makes you feel any better, I felt likewise about both of them at the time.
 
I think Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton will be disappointments for FF owners expecting workhorse runners. I have them lumped in with Jamaal Charles in a tier of blazing fast scat backs who are probably too thin to carry the load.
OUCH!Just kidding. If it makes you feel any better, I felt likewise about both of them at the time.
I was right about Sweed. :thumbdown:
 
I think Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton will be disappointments for FF owners expecting workhorse runners. I have them lumped in with Jamaal Charles in a tier of blazing fast scat backs who are probably too thin to carry the load.
OUCH!Just kidding. If it makes you feel any better, I felt likewise about both of them at the time.
I was right about Sweed. :lmao:
Were you ? Really were you? Don't you think the guy should have an opprotunity to play more than 3/4 of a season before final judgement.
 

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