NFL Survivor 2024 Discussion - Let's win, fellas (1 Viewer)

[McBokonon]

Bengals seem like the best choice for Week 1, but do we want to save them and go somewhere else? What say you?

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I usually try to avoid the biggest favorite if I can, when they do lose it takes out a bunch of the pool

I also do multi entry though so likely will use some bengals

These look good too, although I don’t really like the division game for the saints

Bills
Saints
Seahawks

maybe Miami? Falcons?

Bears seem like a trap, I don’t want to back a rookie in his first start. On the flip side Bucs could be a sneaky play too going against Washington

 

[massraider]

Seahawks

Like them getting Nix at home to start the season.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Bears seem like a trap, I don’t want to back a rookie in his first start. On the flip side Bucs could be a sneaky play too going against Washington

I agree on the rookie QBs. Long term tough plays, especially in a survivor type situation.

 

[Raging weasel]

I'm going Saints. Only time I'd use them all year.

 

[eoMMan]

Going with Chicago this week. I'm not worried about Caleb and his first game. The Chicago defense is a great play as well in DFS or home leagues again the Levis led Titans.

I can see people liking Cincy with them being the largest spread this week but New England's defense is still pretty good and Chase is still looking as very iffy if he plays or not.

 

[Courtjester]

I think it depends on the size of the survivor pool. I am in a smaller one and every year, people try and get cute week one and two, hoping to save the big teams for later and we always seems to lose 25% of the entries.

I am going Cincy without a question.

 

[nysfl2]

Rams are doing a late rotation of their offensive line - Lions should be a safe pick

 

[nirad3]

Seattle looks like a pretty nice choice. Rest of their schedule is not great; you will likely not be in a position where you'd use them for the rest of the year. They're favored by almost a TD against a rookie QB. Right now they are only favored in four more games, and no line close to what they're getting here this week. Might be "getting cute" but they should come away on top.

 

[McBokonon]

Yeah, I’m leaning towards Seattle at the moment.

 

[massraider]

I'm going Saints. Only time I'd use them all year.

This is the time, but they burned everyone week 1 two years ago, I can't forgive

 

[massraider]

And Cincy. I want to use the Bengals before Burrow gets hurt

 

[nirad3]

Seattle looks like a pretty nice choice. Rest of their schedule is not great; you will likely not be in a position where you'd use them for the rest of the year. They're favored by almost a TD against a rookie QB. Right now they are only favored in four more games, and no line close to what they're getting here this week. Might be "getting cute" but they should come away on top.

While I still like Seattle, I went ahead and picked Cincy. Just wanna survive Week 1 and see what's up for the next month or so.

 

[General Malaise]

Seahawks

Like them getting Nix at home to start the season.

Trap......trap trap trap.

 

[McBokonon]

Chase is iffy and hasn't practiced, Higgins might have a hammy issue (Zac Taylor said "we'll see" about him playing) - I'm avoiding the Bengals and hoping they get upset, wreaking havoc.

 

[nirad3]

Chase is iffy and hasn't practiced, Higgins might have a hammy issue (Zac Taylor said "we'll see" about him playing) - I'm avoiding the Bengals and hoping they get upset, wreaking havoc.

Interesting. I may change mine.... I am in a "just for fun" Survivor pool through one of my MFL leagues but still don't wanna go out like a chump in the 1st week. I may flip to Seattle.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

I took the Saints

Fyi- for whatever reason, I’m horrible at these pools

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I took the Saints

Fyi- for whatever reason, I’m horrible at these pools

Like all things betting, it's never quite as easy as it appears.

 

[ChiefD]

The Bengals game is so obvious. But they always start slow. This might be the toughest opening week I can remember. At the moment I like Atlanta over Pittsburgh.

 

[shuke]

Didn't feel good about my Bengals so had switched to Buffalo. But switched to Seattle on a hunch last minute this morning.

 

[McBokonon]

Chase is iffy and hasn't practiced, Higgins might have a hammy issue (Zac Taylor said "we'll see" about him playing) - I'm avoiding the Bengals and hoping they get upset, wreaking havoc.

 

[fantasy stud]

Wow, I assume the majority of the posters who took Cincy will not be returning to this thread. I went Bills and Bears in my huge pool. I had a lot of regrets around 2:00 followed by blissful joy by 4:00. About a third of my pool had Cincy. Onto week 2!

 

[McBokonon]

Falcons?

I like Atlanta over Pittsburgh.

A pox on both your houses.

 

[kupcho1]

Wow, I assume the majority of the posters who took Cincy will not be returning to this thread. I went Bills and Bears in my huge pool. I had a lot of regrets around 2:00 followed by blissful joy by 4:00. About a third of my pool had Cincy. Onto week 2!

I took the bungles, but it was only the espn freebie.
It was really a no lose situation.

 

[fantasy stud]

Baltimore seems like the play next week. I suppose you can get cute with Houston, Philly, Jax, or even Washington?

 

[bryhamm]

Chase is iffy and hasn't practiced, Higgins might have a hammy issue (Zac Taylor said "we'll see" about him playing) - I'm avoiding the Bengals and hoping they get upset, wreaking havoc.

good call.

 

[bryhamm]

CIN knocked out about 25% in my pool.

 

[massraider]

CIN knocked out about 25% in my pool.

Knocked out 2874 of 9681 in my pool, including 5 out of my 10.

 

[shuke]

CIN knocked out about 25% in my pool.

Knocked out 2874 of 9681 in my pool, including 5 out of my 10.

Dude what pool is this and how can I get involved next year?

 

[massraider]

CIN knocked out about 25% in my pool.

Knocked out 2874 of 9681 in my pool, including 5 out of my 10.

Dude what pool is this and how can I get involved next year?

You don't have to wait, he does a week 5 pool, and a Week 11 pool, always with a few thousand in each.

Shoot me a DM

 

[Raging weasel]

Picking Carolina's opponent the next few weeks seems like a solid strategy, especially in double elimination.
Chargers,Raiders,Bengals,Bears and Falcons

 

[McBokonon]

Picking Carolina's opponent the next few weeks seems like a solid strategy, especially in double elimination.
Chargers,Raiders,Bengals,Bears and Falcons

My issue with this is I try to follow the three basic rules of never pick road teams, avoid division games, and avoid prime time.

Carolina looks abysmal, but do we really want to bank on the Chargers going cross-country?

 

[fantasy stud]

Picking Carolina's opponent the next few weeks seems like a solid strategy, especially in double elimination.
Chargers,Raiders,Bengals,Bears and Falcons

My issue with this is I try to follow the three basic rules of never pick road teams, avoid division games, and avoid prime time.

Carolina looks abysmal, but do we really want to bank on the Chargers going cross-country?

nope

 

[Raging weasel]

Picking Carolina's opponent the next few weeks seems like a solid strategy, especially in double elimination.
Chargers,Raiders,Bengals,Bears and Falcons

My issue with this is I try to follow the three basic rules of never pick road teams, avoid division games, and avoid prime time.

Carolina looks abysmal, but do we really want to bank on the Chargers going cross-country?

One of my pools is double elimination so going to use Chargers there. In my one and done pools going Lions or Houston.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I have to admit that I am bad at these things, but can anyone envision LV flying into Baltimore for a 10am start their time and beating the Ravens to make them 0-2? It's probably too obvious but for those just trying to survive another week...

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I’ve got a mix of Ravens, Cowboys and Lions this week

 

[Dan Lambskin]

CIN knocked out about 25% in my pool.

Knocked out 2874 of 9681 in my pool, including 5 out of my 10.

Dude what pool is this and how can I get involved next year?

You don't have to wait, he does a week 5 pool, and a Week 11 pool, always with a few thousand in each.

Shoot me a DM

Yeah that’s crazy big pool, I’m in one with 3K and another is like 2K

 

[fantasy stud]

I have to admit that I am bad at these things, but can anyone envision LV flying into Baltimore for a 10am start their time and beating the Ravens to make them 0-2? It's probably too obvious but for those just trying to survive another week...

No, I think this is the lock of the week. Ravens coming of a loss and 10 days off. Sign me up.

 

[Raging weasel]

CIN knocked out about 25% in my pool.

Knocked out 2874 of 9681 in my pool, including 5 out of my 10.

Dude what pool is this and how can I get involved next year?

You don't have to wait, he does a week 5 pool, and a Week 11 pool, always with a few thousand in each.

Shoot me a DM

Yeah that’s crazy big pool, I’m in one with 3K and another is like 2K

I'm in one on Draft Kings that started at just over 77k players. Down to 49k+ after week one

 

[McBokonon]

I really want to save the Ravens if possible. Kind of eyeballing Houston at home against the Bears at the moment. Not sure I'd be comfortable with them any other time. On the other hand, I don't think I'd take the Ravens the three weeks after next (at DAL, vs. BUF, @CIN) so maybe I should just take them now.

 

[dino259]

Went with Houston this week after Saints last week.

Ravens, Chargers, Eagles, Texans are the top 4 picks in that order.

 

[eoMMan]

A few good options this week but I’m going with Baltimore. They will have extra rest and I don’t see how they go 0-2 with a loss to the Raiders, who looked rough last week.

 

[General Malaise]

On the Ravens as well. Only entry left. Thanks Bengals.

Burrow looks broken.

 

[McBokonon]

Going with the Ravens. Not getting cute, wouldn’t use them in the next 3 weeks anyway.

 

[massraider]

Mixing it up with Chargers/Ravens/Colts

Two on the Ravens, that's my brother's call, but I don't love it. Their line is not good, and everyone and their mother will be on them this week.

Colts at GB is a risk, but will hardly be used. Malik Willis, man

 

[massraider]

Rank Grade Team PG Odds
Away

Rank Grade Team PG Odds Market Odds Money Line Spread Popularity Week 2 EV Future Value Game Notes 4 94 Baltimore vs. LV 80% 80% -435 -9.0 31% 1.06 2.8 7 92 LA Chargers at CAR 67% 68% -240 -5.0 21% 0.91 0.4 Away 2 97 Houston vs. CHI 71% 70% -260 -6.0 10% 1.03 1.8 SNF 8 90 Philadelphia vs. ATL 69% 70% -265 -6.5 8% 1.02 3.8 MNF 1 100 Detroit vs. TB 80% 77% -376 -7.5 5% 1.21 2.4 3 95 Dallas vs. NO 71% 71% -270 -6.0 5% 1.07 2.8 9 89 San Francisco at MIN 67% 68% -225 -4.5 3% 1.02 3.9 Away 17 78 Washington vs. NYG 51% 53% -125 -1.0 3% 0.77 0.1 Div 11 88 Kansas City vs. CIN 69% 71% -270 -6.0 3% 1.06 5.1 6 92 NY Jets at TEN 64% 63% -183 -3.5 3% 0.98 1.2 Away 5 93 Indianapolis at GB 62% 58% -147 -2.5 2% 0.94 0.1 Away 10 89 Jacksonville vs. CLE 59% 61% -167 -3.0 2% 0.91 0.5 14 81 Pittsburgh at DEN 53% 58% -146 -2.5 1% 0.81 0.4 Away 12 87 Seattle at NE 60% 60% -162 -3.0 1% 0.91 1.3 Away 16 79 LA Rams at ARI 51% 50% -111 (Pick) 1% 0.79 0.5 Away Div 13 81 Miami vs. BUF L 56% 56% -140 -2.5 0% 0.86 2.2 Thu Div 20 70 Buffalo at MIA W 44% 44% +120 +2.5 0% 0.68 1.5 Away Thu Div 15 79 NY Giants at WAS 49% 47% +105 +1.0 0% 0.78 0.0 Away Div 24 66 Green Bay vs. IND 38% 42% +127 +2.5 0% 0.60 0.1 18 77 Arizona vs. LAR 49% 50% -109 (Pick) 0% 0.76 0.4 Div 21 69 New England vs. SEA 40% 40% +143 +3.0 0% 0.63 0.0 19 76 Denver vs. PIT 47% 42% +129 +2.5 0% 0.74 0.1 22 68 Cleveland at JAC 41% 39% +147 +3.0 0% 0.64 0.4 Away 25 64 Tennessee vs. NYJ 36% 37% +163 +3.5 0% 0.57 0.0 29 56 New Orleans at DAL 29% 29% +229 +6.0 0% 0.48 0.9 Away 31 56 Las Vegas at BAL 20% 20% +355 +9.0 0% 0.48 0.1 Away 32 47 Tampa Bay at DET 20% 23% +305 +7.5 0% 0.33 0.9 Away 23 67 Carolina vs. LAC 33% 32% +193 +5.0 0% 0.64 0.0 28 58 Chicago at HOU 29% 30% +220 +6.0 0% 0.52 0.9 Away SNF 26 61 Minnesota vs. SF 33% 32% +195 +4.5 0% 0.52 0.0 27 60 Atlanta at PHI 31% 30% +215 +6.5 0% 0.53 0.6 Away MNF 30 56 Cincinnati at KC 31% 29% +220 +6.0 0% 0.49 1.7 Away

 

[massraider]

That's from Team rankings dot com

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I dont think the chargers win

 

[McBokonon]

I dont think the chargers win

Carolina looks abysmal, but do we really want to bank on the Chargers going cross-country?

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I had 9 survivor entries left between 2 pools. I now have 0 (lions, ravens, cowboys)