Odell Beckham 1.01 in dynasty and redraft PPR leagues in 2015? (1 Viewer)

[jurb26]

I knew OBJ was getting a ton of targets but man I didn't realize he has 21 last week. Talk about absurd.

 

[(HULK)]

I'm in a dynasty that reboots every 5 years and next year is a new initial draft. Because I won this year, I get to choose my draft slot. Thinking about trying to get OBJ... but also thinking about Luck/Rodgers... or maybe Bell. Not sure yet.

Anyone have any good resources for rankings w/ an initial dynasty draft? Last year's mock initial dyno draft here had both Rodgers/Luck go in the second, and that seems off to me.

 

[Pipes]

I love Beckham but the hype has gone too far.

Agree - Dez, Green and Julio are still young (25/26), in their prime and proven.

Give me Beckham over Green any day. Until Green gets a better QB I feel that he's at his ceiling which is about what Odell did in 12 games.

I will say it every time someone puts crazy talk out there.

The hype is going too far and I love some Beckham.

Why is it crazy talk? I'm not saying Beckham's the #1WR but I think he's above Green. AJ's last 3 seasons were 97, 1350 and 11, 98 1426 & 11 and 69, 1041 and 6. Beckham put up 91, 1305 & 12 in 12 games...similar to Green's best season. Yes Beckham's numbers will drop but give him a full season and I think he can hit Green's best season of 2013. I think Green's at his ceiling right now until they get a better QB.

 

[georg013]

I knew OBJ was getting a ton of targets but man I didn't realize he has 21 last week. Talk about absurd.

This is what he is expected to maintain next season.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Great idea for a thread about Beckham! I'm sure the board doesn't have one discussing his 2015 status yet!

Now THIS is what I expect from the Shark Pool! The first response is criticizing a new thread on a same player but on a different topic. Now people are getting back to be tools!

There is a 30 page thread on OBJ. Roughly half of the posts on the last 5 pages relate to where he should be taken in 2015 including a discussion of where he fits in with the existing elite players going forward. Why is this thread necessary?

I apologize for not looking at every thread and dissecting them thoroughly in order to determine whether the need for this thread exists. Why do YOU feel the need to post in this thread if it is so irrelevant. Here's a tip: Skip this thread and go to the one you prefer.

This thread is based on ONE subject: Not Odell Beckham as a player, (which will eventually make the 30 page threat 200 pages over the next decade), but Odell Beckham and his draft positioning for 2015. That's it.

Ok, my rant is over. You can return to your previous job of policing the number of threads in the shark pool. Sorry to pull you from it.

Thanks for the tip!

I won't respond at length here because I'm too busy setting up the following threads-

What will Odell eat for breakfast this week, the next week, and during the 2015 preseason?

If Odell stops dying his hair, will it impact his performance?

What if the NFL outlaws gloves, what does that mean for OBJ?

These are things that are not specifically covered by the OBJ thread, and are separate topics about which the Shark Pool needs to provide its input, immediately!

 

[jurb26]

I knew OBJ was getting a ton of targets but man I didn't realize he has 21 last week. Talk about absurd.

This is what he is expected to maintain next season.

People better just hope he maintains his 11 targets per game average for the season.

 

[BallparkFrank]

I knew OBJ was getting a ton of targets but man I didn't realize he has 21 last week. Talk about absurd.

This is what he is expected to maintain next season.

Beckham had 130 targets this season. Assuming good health, that translates to 8.125 targets per game over a 16 game schedule. That should be a lock.

 

[squistion]

I apologize for not looking at every thread and dissecting them thoroughly in order to determine whether the need for this thread exists. Why do YOU feel the need to post in this thread if it is so irrelevant. Here's a tip: Skip this thread and go to the one you prefer.

This thread is based on ONE subject: Not Odell Beckham as a player, (which will eventually make the 30 page threat 200 pages over the next decade), but Odell Beckham and his draft positioning for 2015. That's it.

Ok, my rant is over. You can return to your previous job of policing the number of threads in the shark pool. Sorry to pull you from it.

Thanks for the tip!I won't respond at length here because I'm too busy setting up the following threads-

What will Odell eat for breakfast this week, the next week, and during the 2015 preseason?

If Odell stops dying his hair, will it impact his performance?

What if the NFL outlaws gloves, what does that mean for OBJ?

These are things that are not specifically covered by the OBJ thread, and are separate topics about which the Shark Pool needs to provide its input. immediately!

Please set up those threads, so the rest of us can avoid topics we aren't interested in (as you could have done here).

 

[jurb26]

I knew OBJ was getting a ton of targets but man I didn't realize he has 21 last week. Talk about absurd.

This is what he is expected to maintain next season.

Beckham had 130 targets this season. Assuming good health, that translates to 8.125 targets per game over a 16 game schedule. That should be a lock.

No, he had 132 and it equals 11 per game. Over a full season it would be 176. That would have been 3rd in the league this year.

 

[Bayhawks]

I knew OBJ was getting a ton of targets but man I didn't realize he has 21 last week. Talk about absurd.

This is what he is expected to maintain next season.

Beckham had 130 targets this season. Assuming good health, that translates to 8.125 targets per game over a 16 game schedule. That should be a lock.

No, he had 132 and it equals 11 per game. Over a full season it would be 176. That would have been 3rd in the league this year.

I think he means duplicating this years production over 16 games would only require 8.25 target/game.However, duplicating this years production over 16 games would make him a top-10 WR, but not the 1.01 pick.

 

[BallparkFrank]

I knew OBJ was getting a ton of targets but man I didn't realize he has 21 last week. Talk about absurd.

This is what he is expected to maintain next season.

Beckham had 130 targets this season. Assuming good health, that translates to 8.125 targets per game over a 16 game schedule. That should be a lock.

No, he had 132 and it equals 11 per game. Over a full season it would be 176. That would have been 3rd in the league this year.

MFL shows 130 targets in 12 games played. Just saying that it wouldn't be all that difficult for him to duplicate the same number of targets he had this season in a full season. Whether he could be as productive with those targets is definitely another matter. I don't even know what people are arguing about - just watch the kid play - he's the single most exciting player in the NFL.

 

[jurb26]

I don't even know what people are arguing about - just watch the kid play - he's the single most exciting player in the NFL.

I guess they're arguing over him being the PPR top pick. It's a valid debate. I'd still prefer some of the more proven guys and wouldn't value him as the top guy.

He's exciting for sure.

 

[mquinnjr]

After spending some time in the "Next stud qb" thread, I think I'm going Luck or Rodgers at 1.01

Came in to post this. Gimme the week-to-week floor of these two guys coupled with age and future production potential at 1.01 and locl up QB over a top tier RB who has a shorter life-span (for the most part), and a WR who we've yet to see with Cruz healthy and in the mix with a shaky at best Eli week-to-week at 1.01 in a start-up.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I could see him being the top WR. Positional scarcity would dictate me taking Bell or Gronk in some scoring systems over him though among a couple others. Plenty of good WR options a bit later.

 

[Thunderlips]

Beckham's got the talent to be the top receiver in the game. He doesn't have the talent to be so far ahead of the pack that he becomes a positional "must have". He's not going to lap the field. The field is just too good, with too many young WR's with exceptional talent. In a redraft, you hope that some of the luster is off of him by preseason and he falls to you in the late 2nd/ early 3rd as other owners grab on the more named and established guys.

 

[stbugs]

I wouldn't even take him as the #1 WR in a redraft. Antonio out scored him on a per game basis this year and I think Beckham is a higher risk to regress.

Per game that they actually played? No way that is true.

It isn't. I had the pleasure of teaming them on one team (would it be shocking to hear I won total points and the SB?) and Beckham's run at the end was ridiculous. Brown had 5 30+ point games in PPR in 16 games. They were 31, 31, 32, 32 and 36 and 2 were early, 2 were in the middle and 1 in week 13. Beckham had 5, 4 and 7 targets before the week 8 bye and then in the last 9 games, he started to roll. In his last 6 games, he had 5 30+ games at 30, 37, 37, 38 and 43. So, in those last 6 ridiculous games he had as many 30+ point games as Brown in 16 and 4 of the 6, he bested all 16 games Brown had and Brown was the #1 player in my PPR leagues. On the season in my PPR league, Brown was at 23.75 per game and Beckham was at 24.58 for all 12 games.

Beckham will regress in 2015 from the pace of the last 6 games. He has to or else he will have the best fantasy season ever recorded and those of us who play fantasy will recollect in the future where we were when we saw Beckham break the 500 point barrier in PPR.

I don't see that happening, but as good as Brown was this year, Beckham after the bye (9 games) was ridiculous. He averaged around 20% more per game than Brown did for the year. The pace of the last 6 is not something you can pro-rate as it was probably somewhere around 50% higher than the #1 scoring player.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

That's going to be a product of how well Eli is playing

How much can we count on that next year?

I think having Beckham in the mix makes Eli a better QB.

 

[shader]

I love Beckham but the hype has gone too far.

Agree - Dez, Green and Julio are still young (25/26), in their prime and proven.

Give me Beckham over Green any day. Until Green gets a better QB I feel that he's at his ceiling which is about what Odell did in 12 games.

I will say it every time someone puts crazy talk out there.

The hype is going too far and I love some Beckham.

Why is it crazy talk? I'm not saying Beckham's the #1WR but I think he's above Green. AJ's last 3 seasons were 97, 1350 and 11, 98 1426 & 11 and 69, 1041 and 6. Beckham put up 91, 1305 & 12 in 12 games...similar to Green's best season. Yes Beckham's numbers will drop but give him a full season and I think he can hit Green's best season of 2013. I think Green's at his ceiling right now until they get a better QB.

Exactly. I'd like to know one thing that AJ Green does better than Beckham.

 

[stbugs]

I knew OBJ was getting a ton of targets but man I didn't realize he has 21 last week. Talk about absurd.

This is what he is expected to maintain next season.

Let's put some perspective on this. He didn't start seeing double digit targets until after the bye. In those 9 games, he had 115 targets or 12.8 per game. Brown had 11.3 targets per game, so Beckham had 13% more targets (mainly due to week 17). That said, in those 9 games, Beckham had 28.6 ppg to Brown's 23.8 or 2.23 points per target to 2.10.

The 21 was an outlier, but is it really out of the question that he is among the league leaders in targets next year? At 11 targets per game, which around 2 people had, he would be #1 (#1 in 2013 as well). At 10 targets per game, which around 3 people had, and he would finish #2 this year (#1 in 2013). At 9 targets per game, which around 12 people had, he is #4 (#1 in 2013 again) and not far from #2, only Brown was way ahead.

 

[shader]

I knew OBJ was getting a ton of targets but man I didn't realize he has 21 last week. Talk about absurd.

This is what he is expected to maintain next season.

Beckham had 130 targets this season. Assuming good health, that translates to 8.125 targets per game over a 16 game schedule. That should be a lock.

No, he had 132 and it equals 11 per game. Over a full season it would be 176. That would have been 3rd in the league this year.

I think he means duplicating this years production over 16 games would only require 8.25 target/game.However, duplicating this years production over 16 games would make him a top-10 WR, but not the 1.01 pick.

I'm in a standard PPR league. Beckham ended the season as the number 5 WR. With a full season he would have blown away everyone except Antonio Brown, who had a truly amazing year.

if I spent my 1.01 on a guy that puts up 24-25 ppg, I'm not complaining.

 

[shader]

I don't even know what people are arguing about - just watch the kid play - he's the single most exciting player in the NFL.

I guess they're arguing over him being the PPR top pick. It's a valid debate. I'd still prefer some of the more proven guys and wouldn't value him as the top guy.

He's exciting for sure.

It's a good debate. Obviously you can decide not to take him a 1.01 and still think he's amazing.

In general, I'd feel much more strongly about taking him 1.01 in a dynasty startup. In a re-draft league I would still consider it though.

Why? Because I think the potential exists for him to be that WR that is 3-4 ppg better than everyone else....like he was this year.

 

[stbugs]

That's going to be a product of how well Eli is playing

How much can we count on that next year?

I think having Beckham in the mix makes Eli a better QB.

I agree 100% with this. The OL issues aside, Cruz sure seemed to regress from his huge year after the first few games in 2013. Look at that 80 yard bomb against St. Louis or look at Brown's 63 yarder on Monday night. In both cases they beat the CB badly on their routes and it was a much easier pass that the WR then takes to the house to make the QB look awesome. Roethlisberger just had the best year of his career. Coincidence that Brown broke out as the top WR? It is the chicken and the egg, but having a top WR helps out immensely, especially guys like Brown and Beckham who run great routes and make themselves open.

 

[JamesTheScot]

I couldn't see taking him 1.01 in dynasty. What he has done this year has been amazing, and I'm not taking that away from him. I probably wouldn't take him until the top of the 2nd honestly. That means I'd probably miss out. I'd rather take someone with a more proven track record. I traded for Michael Clayton after his rookie year. That one still burns.

Very good post right here. Look, he had a fantastic season. My hat goes off to him. However, you have to do a LOT more than put together a 12 game run to be considered THE 1.01. What happens when teams have spent all off season game planning to stop this kid? Has there ever been a receiver in the history of the league who has kept up this pace over a career? I expect him to regress back to the mean just like everyone else who has come off a big year. Good player, but not the best ever to play the game. Yet. Three years of production then you can come talk to me if he is still putting up 12/150/2 per game. The guy had 21 targets this past week for goodness sake! Will the Giants continue to force feed him the ball when Cruz returns? Lots of question marks. Don't let the excitment take you overboard. He is not even in my top 5 yet.

Has any receiver ever kept that pace over his career?

If not, then any receiver you would propose for the 1.01 over OBJ is a receiver who also hasn't kept that pace over his career either. So then, if OBJ shouldn't be the 1.01 because he won't keep that pace over his career, then no WR should be the 1.01 because no other WR will keep that pace over his career just the same as OBJ won't.

Regression to the mean has little meaning in terms of quantifying what that mean is when the player is a rookie. We're obviously thinking about his production going forward in 2015, his second year. So are you thinking he's going to regress to the mean for all receivers in the league in 2015? Or all second year receivers in 2015? All second year receivers in 2015 that started at least 10 games in 2014? Or will it be the mean for all second year receivers that put up similar numbers per game to OBJ?

To put it another way:

Would I take a 6th year WR who just finished as the best WR in fantasy at the 1.01 when he has 5 years of mediocre production? Not hardly.

But would I take a 4th year WR who just finished as the 2nd best WR in fantasy at the 1.01 when his previous 3 years showed promise? Maybe.

Because there's a possibility that the current year for the 4th year WR, because of his maturity, experience and growth, is the new mean for him while the top finish for the 6th year WR is just an outlier.

Those two examples illustrate that "regression to the mean" is still deeply contextual and is often of little value.

Do I think OBJ can keep that pace for his career? No.

But he doesn't have to keep that pace to be a top 10 WR next year. And a top 10 WR in his 2nd year may in fact be worth the 1.01.

 

[georg013]

No disrespect but I didnt bother to read your post in full. I expect it is more of the same. So you are willing to spend the 1.01 based on a 12 game stretch. Your team your choice. I need more. My choice. Going in circles here. Moving on. I liked your post in good faith since you took the time to write it.

 

[Shutout]

4 FBG staff members have updated their positional dynasty rankings in the past week. Beckham is the #1 WR in all 4 of those, fwiw.

I can't believe people get paid (and other people pay) for a job/service like this.

I get that if there is a buyer, someone is going to become a seller but really?

Someone said above that ODB is quickly becoming the most overhyped player for the offseason and that is certainly the case. During a long time of watching football and playing FF, I can probably put together a list of a player or three who EVERY single year falls into a perfect storm scenario and just looks like the next coming and people get flat out stupid over him.

How much were people paying for TRICH just two years ago?

Wasn't Jordan Cameron a sure-fire can't miss top 4 dynasty TE just 7 months ago?

The NFL is a funny league in that during the season, they can be brutally stubborn and regimented and cut their nose off to spite their face because they can't/won't change anything but they are also remarkably efficient in adjusting in the offseason to things they have game tape to study. When you have a great talent, obviously he is going to be effective if used correctly but every team that plays the Giants next year isn't just going to continue to show up and watch their season get bent sideways because they allow this one guy to just play pitch and catch. Teams will adjust.

Andrew Luck came into the league with everyone eyeballing him as the great next QB talent. So far, he has lived up to it in a big way. He has the pedigree and the production. A guy like him I can buy hitching your horses to. But 90% of the ff experts, real scouts in general, etc, weren't talking about Beckham coming into the league the way they are now. It was Sammy, Evans, and everyone else was a clear tier before. That's not to say that Beckham isn't really great, but more to say that sometimes players just find themselves in that sweet spot at the right time, at the right time of the year, under the right circumstances. And maybe next year, it won't come as easy.

Lots of people won fantasy titles on the backs of Peyton Hillis and Reuben Droughns that ONE TIME. But they didn't continue the pace they were on that would have shattered Emmitt Smith's records and I don't expect Beckham is going to continue a trajectory that will have him bumping Jerry Rice's names out of the books in 9 years. Sometimes you just have to recognize a unique and perfect storm when you see it.

It is SO easy to look at hindsight and say Beckham is now number 1 going forward. IS that really expert ff advice you need to be told and that you want to pay for?

I think a LOT of people are going to be disappointed next season if they fall into this line of thinking.

 

[Shutout]

I couldn't see taking him 1.01 in dynasty. What he has done this year has been amazing, and I'm not taking that away from him. I probably wouldn't take him until the top of the 2nd honestly. That means I'd probably miss out. I'd rather take someone with a more proven track record. I traded for Michael Clayton after his rookie year. That one still burns.

Very good post right here. Look, he had a fantastic season. My hat goes off to him. However, you have to do a LOT more than put together a 12 game run to be considered THE 1.01. What happens when teams have spent all off season game planning to stop this kid? Has there ever been a receiver in the history of the league who has kept up this pace over a career? I expect him to regress back to the mean just like everyone else who has come off a big year. Good player, but not the best ever to play the game. Yet. Three years of production then you can come talk to me if he is still putting up 12/150/2 per game. The guy had 21 targets this past week for goodness sake! Will the Giants continue to force feed him the ball when Cruz returns? Lots of question marks. Don't let the excitment take you overboard. He is not even in my top 5 yet.

Has any receiver ever kept that pace over his career?

If not, then any receiver you would propose for the 1.01 over OBJ is a receiver who also hasn't kept that pace over his career either. So then, if OBJ shouldn't be the 1.01 because he won't keep that pace over his career, then no WR should be the 1.01 because no other WR will keep that pace over his career just the same as OBJ won't.

Regression to the mean has little meaning in terms of quantifying what that mean is when the player is a rookie. We're obviously thinking about his production going forward in 2015, his second year. So are you thinking he's going to regress to the mean for all receivers in the league in 2015? Or all second year receivers in 2015? All second year receivers in 2015 that started at least 10 games in 2014? Or will it be the mean for all second year receivers that put up similar numbers per game to OBJ?

To put it another way:

Would I take a 6th year WR who just finished as the best WR in fantasy at the 1.01 when he has 5 years of mediocre production? Not hardly.

But would I take a 4th year WR who just finished as the 2nd best WR in fantasy at the 1.01 when his previous 3 years showed promise? Maybe.

Because there's a possibility that the current year for the 4th year WR, because of his maturity, experience and growth, is the new mean for him while the top finish for the 6th year WR is just an outlier.

Those two examples illustrate that "regression to the mean" is still deeply contextual and is often of little value.

Do I think OBJ can keep that pace for his career? No.

But he doesn't have to keep that pace to be a top 10 WR next year. And a top 10 WR in his 2nd year may in fact be worth the 1.01.

So, unless you DO expect him to be a man among boys again, (if you ARE willing to think that he may be "merely" a top 10 WR), why would you pay the 1.01 for him when you could have some other top 10 Wr like Dez, Julio, Antonio Bryant, Jordy, etc, for a second round pick?

You are severely overpaying unless he repeats 2014 production and that is bad because the name of this game is about relative value. Not 10 months ago the entire FF world was drooling in anticipation about the "unstoppable/incomparable" next big thing Josh Gordon. His one time production in 2013 was amazing. But it guaranteed nothing going forward. TRICH showed amazing promise one time. All these guys mentioned in the thread already did to. Some busted. Some remain great. But NONE have ever maintained such a torrid pace.

Beckham can be great. He can be top 5, top 1 at times, can be all that. But the law of averages says that it is HIGHLY likely that there he will be in the mix with about 10-12 other WRs with similar stats after next year. Maybe he is 20 points better than Antonio Bryant. Maybe he 30 behind him. Maybe he tied with Calvin Johnson or beats Megatron by 55. Lots of possibilities. But to justify taking him 1.01, he had better be about 100+ better than the next guy and create a tier all unto himself. Otherwise, you take a Bell, a Lacy, a Luck (whatever you feel good about and justifies in your scoring system and then you "settle" on Demaryius Thomas. That is how your oars are better than the other guy's oars and your boat rows faster in fantasy. In any type of league with any amount of sophistication and competition at all, it is RARE that you pick one guy that EVERYBODY knows about and that player just carries you.

 

[cstu]

Has everyone forgotten that Josh Gordon was considered by many the #1 dynasty WR at this time last year?

 

[cvnpoka]

WR is a deeeeeeeeeeeeeep position. There's no singular dominant WR (like Moss or Calvin).

Now young 3 down RBs? That's a much more scarce resource.

and they are much harder to identify and fulfill

 

[squistion]

Has everyone forgotten that Josh Gordon was considered by many the #1 dynasty WR at this time last year?

No, but there were also people at that time who stated they wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole because he was only one toke away from a year long suspension. While he was considered the top WR dynasty prospect by some of the experts here, it was repeatedly pointed out by his critics that because of his past behavior, he was in the high risk/high reward category despite what he had shown on the field.

 

[ShamrockPride]

Has everyone forgotten that Josh Gordon was considered by many the #1 dynasty WR at this time last year?

Dynasty is different. I don't think I've seen anyone in here bash on someone taking OBJ #1 dynasty next year.

Overall? Redraft? You're a fool to do so.

 

[carverlee]

4 FBG staff members have updated their positional dynasty rankings in the past week. Beckham is the #1 WR in all 4 of those, fwiw.

I can't believe people get paid (and other people pay) for a job/service like this.

I get that if there is a buyer, someone is going to become a seller but really?

Someone said above that ODB is quickly becoming the most overhyped player for the offseason and that is certainly the case. During a long time of watching football and playing FF, I can probably put together a list of a player or three who EVERY single year falls into a perfect storm scenario and just looks like the next coming and people get flat out stupid over him.

How much were people paying for TRICH just two years ago?

Wasn't Jordan Cameron a sure-fire can't miss top 4 dynasty TE just 7 months ago?

The NFL is a funny league in that during the season, they can be brutally stubborn and regimented and cut their nose off to spite their face because they can't/won't change anything but they are also remarkably efficient in adjusting in the offseason to things they have game tape to study. When you have a great talent, obviously he is going to be effective if used correctly but every team that plays the Giants next year isn't just going to continue to show up and watch their season get bent sideways because they allow this one guy to just play pitch and catch. Teams will adjust.

Andrew Luck came into the league with everyone eyeballing him as the great next QB talent. So far, he has lived up to it in a big way. He has the pedigree and the production. A guy like him I can buy hitching your horses to. But 90% of the ff experts, real scouts in general, etc, weren't talking about Beckham coming into the league the way they are now. It was Sammy, Evans, and everyone else was a clear tier before. That's not to say that Beckham isn't really great, but more to say that sometimes players just find themselves in that sweet spot at the right time, at the right time of the year, under the right circumstances. And maybe next year, it won't come as easy.

Lots of people won fantasy titles on the backs of Peyton Hillis and Reuben Droughns that ONE TIME. But they didn't continue the pace they were on that would have shattered Emmitt Smith's records and I don't expect Beckham is going to continue a trajectory that will have him bumping Jerry Rice's names out of the books in 9 years. Sometimes you just have to recognize a unique and perfect storm when you see it.

It is SO easy to look at hindsight and say Beckham is now number 1 going forward. IS that really expert ff advice you need to be told and that you want to pay for?

I think a LOT of people are going to be disappointed next season if they fall into this line of thinking.

I like your post as it makes a lot of sense, if you are talking about your average player. What has people excited is that he doesn't look like your average player.

A. Brown is a great comparison because it doesn't seem to matter how much attention he garnishes, he still finds a way to impact the game. With the rules the way they are, he as close to unguardable as any player I have ever seen. He is just so quick and shifty. Beckham seems to have that trait as well as some of the bigger WRs massive catch radius. At least this is the way I see him and why I value him very highly. It doesn't have anything to do with situation or # of targets, just him as a player.

 

[Jerry Curl]

I love Beckham but the hype has gone too far.

Agree - Dez, Green and Julio are still young (25/26), in their prime and proven.

Give me Beckham over Green any day. Until Green gets a better QB I feel that he's at his ceiling which is about what Odell did in 12 games.

I will say it every time someone puts crazy talk out there.

The hype is going too far and I love some Beckham.

Why is it crazy talk? I'm not saying Beckham's the #1WR but I think he's above Green. AJ's last 3 seasons were 97, 1350 and 11, 98 1426 & 11 and 69, 1041 and 6. Beckham put up 91, 1305 & 12 in 12 games...similar to Green's best season. Yes Beckham's numbers will drop but give him a full season and I think he can hit Green's best season of 2013. I think Green's at his ceiling right now until they get a better QB.

Exactly. I'd like to know one thing that AJ Green does better than Beckham.

Green has done it for more than one year?

 

[mikel0254]

Per Rotoworld:

Giants GM Jerry Reese admitted he's "gotta prepare as if 'What if Victor [Cruz] doesn't come back?'" after Cruz suffered a torn right patellar tendon in October.
"That’s always in the back of your head," Reese continued. "What if this guy doesn’t come back and be the player that we think he is?" The injury Cruz suffered is more serious than a torn ACL and has derailed past careers. It'll be especially tough for Cruz because he relies on suddenness and change-of-direction so much as a slot receiver. Cruz recently progressed to running on a treadmill.


Obviously this isn't "news", but there's been a lot of discussions on when Cruz comes back what does that do to Beckham. If Cruz doesn't come back, there's no reason to think ODB can't keep up the amount of targets he got this year. He's been wildly efficient with those targets due to his speed, route running, and hands. If Cruz doesn't come back, or at least come back as the old Cruz, there's definitely an argument for him keeping pace with this year and therefore should be considered a top (if not THE top) WR next year and for the foreseeable future.

 

[Steed]

Surprised this hasn't gotten more burn

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/odell-beckham-jr--makes-yet-another-ridiculous-catch-220519301.html

 

[Steed]

Surprised this hasn't gotten more burn

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/odell-beckham-jr--makes-yet-another-ridiculous-catch-220519301.html

I doubt anyone outside of beckham, calvin or aj green makes that catch

 

[Warrior]

lol, no.

End of the first in Dynasty. I'd much rather have an elite WR that has proven himself in at least one full season.

Keenan Allen. Michael Clayton. Michael Floyd. They all looked elite at first, then defenses decided to cover them the next season.

 

[georg013]

By bringing reality into the equation you are interrupting the fantasies of Beckham lovers everywhere. Let them dream. Its why they call it fantasy football.

 

[mikel0254]

lol, no.

End of the first in Dynasty. I'd much rather have an elite WR that has proven himself in at least one full season.

Keenan Allen. Michael Clayton. Michael Floyd. They all looked elite at first, then defenses decided to cover them the next season.

Not sure what the LOL is about when you're saying he's still a first round dynasty pick.

Allen and Clayton looked elite. Floyd not at all. He had 2 TD and 500 yards his first year, and last year (his best year) was hardly elite.

Randy Moss also looked elite his first year. And Beckham looks a lot more like Randy Moss-like ability than Allen or Clayton.

 

[stbugs]

lol, no.

End of the first in Dynasty. I'd much rather have an elite WR that has proven himself in at least one full season.

Keenan Allen. Michael Clayton. Michael Floyd. They all looked elite at first, then defenses decided to cover them the next season.

Why do people like this come up and people like Droughns and Hillis? How about above trying to compare him to a completely unspecial volume only Trent Richardson who in 600+ (or more) touches hasn't gone more than 32 yards? None of those guys were "elite" in the sense that there was a large group of people saying they would be the top selection in the draft. TRich was near the top because he got the volume and in fantasy, volume can make people elite scorers even though we know they aren't elite players.

carverlee said it properly. If we were talking about Michael Clayton after year one, this would all make sense. Lots of us see something "special" in Beckham. It is that simple. Maybe he will come back down to earth, or maybe he is the next Moss or Tomlinson or Calvin, who will be at the top for many years and worth a super high selection.

I'm on the train, looking forward to next season, especially since I can keep him in 1 of my 2 keeper leagues for a 10th round pick. He and Brown won me that title and I saw many "special" plays out of both and if I had the chance, I would be happy with either in the 1st round.

 

[JamesTheScot]

No disrespect but I didnt bother to read your post in full. I expect it is more of the same. So you are willing to spend the 1.01 based on a 12 game stretch. Your team your choice. I need more. My choice. Going in circles here. Moving on. I liked your post in good faith since you took the time to write it.

Why would you bother to respond if you couldn't be bothered to read the whole post? <_<

I never said I would take OBJ at the 1.01. I simply pointed out how "regression to the mean" gets thrown around too easily and a bit carelessly on these boards.

What good does it do me to believe ODJ will regress if I have no idea how much? Because at the end of the day, I have to put him on a draft sheet ranking him somewhere.

So speaking about regression without trying to quantify that regression really isn't that helpful outside of being able to come back later and posture over having predicted a regression. Saying he will regress doesn't tell me whether he would still be worth the 1.01 or maybe the 1.12 or maybe the 2.12.

Besides, you've actually subtley switched your argument. First you were saying he couldn't keep that pace. (No kidding, BTW) Now it sounds like you are saying the sample size isn't large enough. Why didn't you just say that to begin with?

 

[JamesTheScot]

lol, no.

End of the first in Dynasty. I'd much rather have an elite WR that has proven himself in at least one full season.

Keenan Allen. Michael Clayton. Michael Floyd. They all looked elite at first, then defenses decided to cover them the next season.

I understand not trusting him to burn the 1.01 on him. I wouldn't necessarily either.

But trying to equate him to what those guys have done is laughable. None of those guys have looked anything like the dominance that OBJ has been this year.

Floyd racked up 45/562/2 over 16 games (3 starts) his rookie season.

Clayton went 80/1193/7 over 16 games (starting 13) his rookie season.

Allen went 71/1046/8 over 15 games (starting 14) his rookie season.

Beckham went 91/1305/12 over 13 games (12 starts).

And that's the just the numbers devoid of actually looking at them play.

 

[SproutDaddy]

lol, no.

End of the first in Dynasty. I'd much rather have an elite WR that has proven himself in at least one full season.

Keenan Allen. Michael Clayton. Michael Floyd. They all looked elite at first, then defenses decided to cover them the next season.

Not sure what the LOL is about when you're saying he's still a first round dynasty pick.

Allen and Clayton looked elite. Floyd not at all. He had 2 TD and 500 yards his first year, and last year (his best year) was hardly elite.

Randy Moss also looked elite his first year. And Beckham looks a lot more like Randy Moss-like ability than Allen or Clayton.

How does Beckham's ability remind you anything resembling Moss?

 

[mikel0254]

lol, no.

End of the first in Dynasty. I'd much rather have an elite WR that has proven himself in at least one full season.

Keenan Allen. Michael Clayton. Michael Floyd. They all looked elite at first, then defenses decided to cover them the next season.

I understand not trusting him to burn the 1.01 on him. I wouldn't necessarily either.

But trying to equate him to what those guys have done is laughable. None of those guys have looked anything like the dominance that OBJ has been this year.

Floyd racked up 45/562/2 over 16 games (3 starts) his rookie season.

Clayton went 80/1193/7 over 16 games (starting 13) his rookie season.

Allen went 71/1046/8 over 15 games (starting 14) his rookie season.

Beckham went 91/1305/12 over 13 games (12 starts).

And that's the just the numbers devoid of actually looking at them play.

And this is the biggest factor for me

 

[jurb26]

lol, no.

End of the first in Dynasty. I'd much rather have an elite WR that has proven himself in at least one full season.

Keenan Allen. Michael Clayton. Michael Floyd. They all looked elite at first, then defenses decided to cover them the next season.

Not sure what the LOL is about when you're saying he's still a first round dynasty pick.

Allen and Clayton looked elite. Floyd not at all. He had 2 TD and 500 yards his first year, and last year (his best year) was hardly elite.

Randy Moss also looked elite his first year. And Beckham looks a lot more like Randy Moss-like ability than Allen or Clayton.

How does Beckham's ability remind you anything resembling Moss?

Santana Moss?

 

[cstu]

lol, no.

End of the first in Dynasty. I'd much rather have an elite WR that has proven himself in at least one full season.

Keenan Allen. Michael Clayton. Michael Floyd. They all looked elite at first, then defenses decided to cover them the next season.

I understand not trusting him to burn the 1.01 on him. I wouldn't necessarily either.

But trying to equate him to what those guys have done is laughable. None of those guys have looked anything like the dominance that OBJ has been this year.

Floyd racked up 45/562/2 over 16 games (3 starts) his rookie season.

Clayton went 80/1193/7 over 16 games (starting 13) his rookie season.

Allen went 71/1046/8 over 15 games (starting 14) his rookie season.

Beckham went 91/1305/12 over 13 games (12 starts).

And that's the just the numbers devoid of actually looking at them play.

If Rivers was one to focus on one receiver then Allen could have put up the same numbers as Beckham.

 

[mikel0254]

lol, no.

End of the first in Dynasty. I'd much rather have an elite WR that has proven himself in at least one full season.

Keenan Allen. Michael Clayton. Michael Floyd. They all looked elite at first, then defenses decided to cover them the next season.

Not sure what the LOL is about when you're saying he's still a first round dynasty pick.

Allen and Clayton looked elite. Floyd not at all. He had 2 TD and 500 yards his first year, and last year (his best year) was hardly elite.

Randy Moss also looked elite his first year. And Beckham looks a lot more like Randy Moss-like ability than Allen or Clayton.

How does Beckham's ability remind you anything resembling Moss?

Ability as in impact/stats/fantasy ability/potential. Just because the two don't have the same game, size, or stature, doesn't mean you can't compare what ODB did his rookie year to Moss' rookie year.

 

[Koya]

lol, no.

End of the first in Dynasty. I'd much rather have an elite WR that has proven himself in at least one full season.

Keenan Allen. Michael Clayton. Michael Floyd. They all looked elite at first, then defenses decided to cover them the next season.

I understand not trusting him to burn the 1.01 on him. I wouldn't necessarily either.

But trying to equate him to what those guys have done is laughable. None of those guys have looked anything like the dominance that OBJ has been this year.

Floyd racked up 45/562/2 over 16 games (3 starts) his rookie season.

Clayton went 80/1193/7 over 16 games (starting 13) his rookie season.

Allen went 71/1046/8 over 15 games (starting 14) his rookie season.

Beckham went 91/1305/12 over 13 games (12 starts).

And that's the just the numbers devoid of actually looking at them play.

If Rivers was one to focus on one receiver then Allen could have put up the same numbers as Beckham.

No chance. If Rivers solely focused on Allen and defended knew it, you don't think his lack of elite physical talent would have become very apparent?

As has been noted, the numbers are staggering (best 12 game start to a wr career ever I believe) however the REAL separator here is the clear difference in pure athletic ability. He has already done some things we've never seen before. Ever. That perhaps only a very few uber elite players EVER could have done.

I do believe you need more than a year and obviously durability is proven over time and is needed to be a true elite player - but you literally can't ask for more in terms of numbers and the eye test.

 

[Koya]

lol, no.

End of the first in Dynasty. I'd much rather have an elite WR that has proven himself in at least one full season.

Keenan Allen. Michael Clayton. Michael Floyd. They all looked elite at first, then defenses decided to cover them the next season.

Not sure what the LOL is about when you're saying he's still a first round dynasty pick.

Allen and Clayton looked elite. Floyd not at all. He had 2 TD and 500 yards his first year, and last year (his best year) was hardly elite.

Randy Moss also looked elite his first year. And Beckham looks a lot more like Randy Moss-like ability than Allen or Clayton.

How does Beckham's ability remind you anything resembling Moss?

Ability as in impact/stats/fantasy ability/potential. Just because the two don't have the same game, size, or stature, doesn't mean you can't compare what ODB did his rookie year to Moss' rookie year.

Moss is the only player I can think of that provided this same level of elite and out of this world athletic skill - a man among boys even as a rookie.

The difference is because of moss' height he had an added dimension though never close to the body control ODB has shown.

To me Moss is a top 10 all time receiver and arguably top 5, and yet is also a player that left as much out on the field in terms of unrealised potential as any successful player i can recall. It's as if Strawberry hit 500 HRs when you felt he could have hit 800

 

[anguskahn]

lol, no.

End of the first in Dynasty. I'd much rather have an elite WR that has proven himself in at least one full season.

Keenan Allen. Michael Clayton. Michael Floyd. They all looked elite at first, then defenses decided to cover them the next season.

I understand not trusting him to burn the 1.01 on him. I wouldn't necessarily either.

But trying to equate him to what those guys have done is laughable. None of those guys have looked anything like the dominance that OBJ has been this year.

Floyd racked up 45/562/2 over 16 games (3 starts) his rookie season.

Clayton went 80/1193/7 over 16 games (starting 13) his rookie season.

Allen went 71/1046/8 over 15 games (starting 14) his rookie season.

Beckham went 91/1305/12 over 13 games (12 starts).

And that's the just the numbers devoid of actually looking at them play.

Exactly like the folks saying he was better than Randy Moss his rookie year.

 

[mikel0254]

lol, no.

End of the first in Dynasty. I'd much rather have an elite WR that has proven himself in at least one full season.

Keenan Allen. Michael Clayton. Michael Floyd. They all looked elite at first, then defenses decided to cover them the next season.

I understand not trusting him to burn the 1.01 on him. I wouldn't necessarily either.

But trying to equate him to what those guys have done is laughable. None of those guys have looked anything like the dominance that OBJ has been this year.

Floyd racked up 45/562/2 over 16 games (3 starts) his rookie season.

Clayton went 80/1193/7 over 16 games (starting 13) his rookie season.

Allen went 71/1046/8 over 15 games (starting 14) his rookie season.

Beckham went 91/1305/12 over 13 games (12 starts).

And that's the just the numbers devoid of actually looking at them play.

Exactly like the folks saying he was better than Randy Moss his rookie year.

I have not read one person say he was better than Moss. But it's logical to link the two seeing as Moss had the best rookie year ever with 1,313 yards and 17 TDs. Prorate Beckham's 12 games over 16 and he gets to 1,740 yards and 16 TDs. So I'm sorry if people take offense to comparing a rookie to a proven multi year stud like Moss, but we haven't seen a rookie WR that looked this good since him.