Offense Most Likely to Tank (1 Viewer)

[BlackHole]

You are the stats master.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

2 teams stick out IMO, one is the Vikings. They lost their best offensive player, so there's certainly a possibility that their offense suffers.The other is Green Bay. I'd bet money they drop out of the top 10. They lost a couple of key players on the offensive line........and Farve is, well another year older.I also feel that if the Rams don't repair their offensive line, they have a chance to drop back as well. If they don't protect Bulger better, he'll go down again. And we saw what that offense looked like without him in there.

 

[Jetdoc]

Everyone's focusing on Minnesota in this thread, but I think the more intriguing story will be San Diego.  I think that Brees' deal with the debbil will expire before training camp, and the entire Charger offense will come crashing back down to Earth.  I envision a bottom-third of the league finish.

Just a gut feeling, or can you point to tangible evidence that would lead to a demise?

Drew Brees' statistics:2002 - 3,284 passing yards, 17 TD's, 16 INT's, 76.9 passer rating

2003 - 2,108 passing yards, 11 TD's, 15 INT's, 67.5 passer rating

2004 - 3,159 passing yards, 27 TD's, 7 INT's, 104.8 passer rating

Brees played out of his mind when his job (and probably career) was on the line, and now has gotten a fat contract out of it. His production can only go down in 2005 - I predict sub-3,000 passing yards and a passer rating of around 80, which would be around his career average so far. I also look for his TD/INT ratio to come back down to earth, which would be less than 20 TDs and 10+ INTs in 2005.

The Chargers were 20th in the NFL in scoring in 2002 at 20.8 points/game, 16th in in 2003 at 19.6 points/game, and magically increased to 3rd in scoring at 27.9 points/game in 2004. Again, the dramatic increase in scoring in 2004 I would say is an aberration, and the Chargers will return to their average of about 20 points per game in 2005.

 

[jurb26]

Everyone's focusing on Minnesota in this thread, but I think the more intriguing story will be San Diego.  I think that Brees' deal with the debbil will expire before training camp, and the entire Charger offense will come crashing back down to Earth.  I envision a bottom-third of the league finish.

Just a gut feeling, or can you point to tangible evidence that would lead to a demise?

Drew Brees' statistics:2002 - 3,284 passing yards, 17 TD's, 16 INT's, 76.9 passer rating

2003 - 2,108 passing yards, 11 TD's, 15 INT's, 67.5 passer rating

2004 - 3,159 passing yards, 27 TD's, 7 INT's, 104.8 passer rating

Brees played out of his mind when his job (and probably career) was on the line, and now has gotten a fat contract out of it. His production can only go down in 2005 - I predict sub-3,000 passing yards and a passer rating of around 80, which would be around his career average so far. I also look for his TD/INT ratio to come back down to earth, which would be less than 20 TDs and 10+ INTs in 2005.

The Chargers were 20th in the NFL in scoring in 2002 at 20.8 points/game, 16th in in 2003 at 19.6 points/game, and magically increased to 3rd in scoring at 27.9 points/game in 2004. Again, the dramatic increase in scoring in 2004 I would say is an aberration, and the Chargers will return to their average of about 20 points per game in 2005.

You could look at it like that..... but you could also look at it as a guy who just needed a little time to develop into a NFL QB as opposed to a college one. Lets not forget that this team more than likely will be adding a top notch playmaker at WR via the draft in a few weeks. They also have all young players on the O side of the ball for the most part. I too think Brees palyed over his head last year, but still things look rather rosey from here untill next season at least.

 

[Mr. Mojo]

It's hard to pick from those teams - I had to look through the list twice to come up with San Diego. Someone already mentioned that they will have an extremely tough schedule and I'll add that almost all of their tough games are on the road. I'm always skeptical about a guy like Brees who had such a shocking season. And don't forget that Marty is still there and had never been an offensive juggernaut coach.

 

[David Yudkin]

It's hard to pick from those teams - I had to look through the list twice to come up with San Diego. Someone already mentioned that they will have an extremely tough schedule and I'll add that almost all of their tough games are on the road.

I'm always skeptical about a guy like Brees who had such a shocking season.

And don't forget that Marty is still there and had never been an offensive juggernaut coach.

Actually, SD was not a Top 10 team based on yardage--they ranked 11th.In the past, Marty ball has produced 3 teams that ranked Top 10 in yardage and 8 teams that ranked Top 10 in points scored out of 19 seasons he's coached.

 

[LuckyOne]

I'm thinking either GB or Denver. GB, because of the many reasons supplied by others above, and Denver because their offense isn't all that exciting. I'm not entirely sold on Bell, yet. They produce RBs like machines behind that line, but I dunno... their passing game needs to improve.

In 2004, Denver's passing attack ranked 6th in yards and 9th in TDs. For a run first team that would rather run in the red zone than pass, those are pretty darn good passing statistics. Denver's passing game is just fine, they just tend to play a ball control game.

 

[LHUCKS]

It's hard to pick from those teams - I had to look through the list twice to come up with San Diego.  Someone already mentioned that they will have an extremely tough schedule and I'll add that almost all of their tough games are on the road.

I'm always skeptical about a guy like Brees who had such a shocking season.

And don't forget that Marty is still there and had never been an offensive juggernaut coach.

Actually, SD was not a Top 10 team based on yardage--they ranked 11th.In the past, Marty ball has produced 3 teams that ranked Top 10 in yardage and 8 teams that ranked Top 10 in points scored out of 19 seasons he's coached.

Hmmm...I got those stats from NFL.com under total offense. I wonder where there is a glitch?

 

[Chase Stuart]

It's hard to pick from those teams - I had to look through the list twice to come up with San Diego. Someone already mentioned that they will have an extremely tough schedule and I'll add that almost all of their tough games are on the road.

I'm always skeptical about a guy like Brees who had such a shocking season.

And don't forget that Marty is still there and had never been an offensive juggernaut coach.

Actually, SD was not a Top 10 team based on yardage--they ranked 11th.In the past, Marty ball has produced 3 teams that ranked Top 10 in yardage and 8 teams that ranked Top 10 in points scored out of 19 seasons he's coached.

Hmmm...I got those stats from NFL.com under total offense. I wonder where there is a glitch?

I'm coming in late here, but it might have to do with how the two sources use yards lost from sacks.

 

[LHUCKS]

It's hard to pick from those teams - I had to look through the list twice to come up with San Diego.  Someone already mentioned that they will have an extremely tough schedule and I'll add that almost all of their tough games are on the road.

I'm always skeptical about a guy like Brees who had such a shocking season.

And don't forget that Marty is still there and had never been an offensive juggernaut coach.

Actually, SD was not a Top 10 team based on yardage--they ranked 11th.In the past, Marty ball has produced 3 teams that ranked Top 10 in yardage and 8 teams that ranked Top 10 in points scored out of 19 seasons he's coached.

Hmmm...I got those stats from NFL.com under total offense. I wonder where there is a glitch?

I'm coming in late here, but it might have to do with how the two sources use yards lost from sacks.

Thx...that was bothering me.

 

[David Yudkin]

It's hard to pick from those teams - I had to look through the list twice to come up with San Diego.  Someone already mentioned that they will have an extremely tough schedule and I'll add that almost all of their tough games are on the road.

I'm always skeptical about a guy like Brees who had such a shocking season.

And don't forget that Marty is still there and had never been an offensive juggernaut coach.

Actually, SD was not a Top 10 team based on yardage--they ranked 11th.In the past, Marty ball has produced 3 teams that ranked Top 10 in yardage and 8 teams that ranked Top 10 in points scored out of 19 seasons he's coached.

Hmmm...I got those stats from NFL.com under total offense. I wonder where there is a glitch?

Well, according to profootballreference, here were the team leaders in yardage . . .Kansas City Chiefs 4633/2289 = 6922 (1)

Indianapolis Colts 4732/1852 = 6584 (2)

Minnesota Vikings 4754/1823 = 6577 (4)

Green Bay Packers 4550/1908 = 6458 (3)

Denver Broncos 4089/2333 = 6422 (5)

St. Louis Rams 4615/1624 = 6239 (6)

New England Patriots 3750/2134 = 5884 (7)

Philadelphia Eagles 4208/1639 = 5847 (9)

Seattle Seahawks 3715/2095 = 5810 (8)

Tennessee Titans 3933/1871 = 5804 (Not listed)

San Diego Chargers 3506/2185 = 5691 (10)

The rankings you listed were in ( ), and the order is somewhat different.

I can't explain the difference . . .

 

[LHUCKS]

 

[LHUCKS]

I'm going with the Vikings:

a) Randy Moss is Gone

b) Culpepper less than impressive in games without Moss in '04

c) Mike Tice is a moron and the Vikings appear to be deteriorating as a team

d) New Ownership

e) Randy Moss is Gone

Tank = Significant Drop in Total Offense

 

[UnknownCoach]

If Favre retires GB wont be there.

If McNair goes Tennessee wont be there.

San Diego wont be there.

I dont like the odds for the Vikings.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Is there a point to bumping these other than trying to bring attention to yourself? Is there any new discussion to be had about these particular threads?

 

[LHUCKS]

Is there a point to bumping these other than trying to bring attention to yourself?  Is there any new discussion to be had about these particular threads?  

No, it's a complete wast of time and my main goal is to waste board space and bring attention to myself. You may return to the "Cold Pizza vs. Mike and Mike Thread" now. ...or you can read thoughts from early in the season and actually learn from your own or others' mistakes.

 

[LHUCKS]

If Favre retires GB wont be there.

If McNair goes Tennessee wont be there.

San Diego wont be there.

I dont like the odds for the Vikings.

Look at the date.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

If Favre retires GB wont be there.

If McNair goes Tennessee wont be there.

San Diego wont be there.

I dont like the odds for the Vikings.

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

So Lhucks what was the Final Breakdown? How many of those Top 10 teams from 04 repeated in 05? Which had the most significant drops?

 

[LHUCKS]

So Lhucks what was the Final Breakdown? How many of those Top 10 teams from 04 repeated in 05? Which had the most significant drops?

Good question...anybody want to run over to NFL.com and get us some stats...I'm a little busy right now...on another continent waiting to get on a plane.

 

[rzrback77]

2004 Regular Season

Team Plys Yds/G Y/P Pass Rush FD/G TOP

1 KC 1089 418.4 6.1 275.4 143.0 24.9 32:14:00

2 Indi 968 404.7 6.7 288.9 115.8 23.7 28:40:00

3 GB 1053 397.3 6.0 278.1 119.2 22.1 30:28:00

4 Minn 985 396.2 6.4 282.2 114.0 21.9 30:02:00

5 Den 1070 395.8 5.9 249.9 145.9 21.9 32:38:00

6 StL 1011 367.3 5.8 265.8 101.5 20.1 31:05:00

7 NE 1035 357.6 5.5 224.2 133.4 21.5 31:22:00

8 Sea 1034 352.1 5.4 221.2 130.9 20.0 29:00:00

9 Phil 960 351.1 5.9 248.7 102.4 18.8 28:26:00

10SD 996 346.4 5.6 209.8 136.6 20.5 31:30:00

11Ten 1053 342.9 5.2 226.0 116.9 19.2 31:40:00

12NYJ 996 339.9 5.5 190.6 149.3 19.6 31:51:00

13Car 991 326.6 5.3 227.7 98.9 19.2 29:56:00

14Dal 1004 324.8 5.2 214.2 110.6 18.5 30:37:00

15NO 989 324.6 5.3 224.2 100.4 18.2 28:18:00

16Pitt 1012 324.0 5.1 170.0 154.0 19.4 34:00:00

17Oak 939 322.1 5.5 241.1 81.0 17.2 26:47:00

18Cin 1004 321.2 5.1 206.3 114.9 17.9 29:20:00

19Hou 1001 320.5 5.1 202.9 117.6 18.8 29:59:00

20Atl 969 317.8 5.2 150.8 167.0 17.8 29:10:00

21Jac 991 313.1 5.1 197.4 115.7 17.4 30:28:00

22TB 949 310.2 5.2 217.1 93.1 16.9 29:43:00

23NYG 951 295.1 5.0 176.1 119.0 17.6 28:52:00

24Det 949 293.3 4.9 182.2 111.1 16.4 28:03:00

25Buf 982 293.2 4.8 176.1 117.1 16.9 30:21:00

26SF 1026 286.6 4.5 196.0 90.6 17.5 29:00:00

27Arz 1047 284.4 4.3 180.1 104.3 17.5 30:53:00

28Cle 921 280.1 4.9 176.5 103.6 15.3 28:03:00

29Mia 1022 275.2 4.3 191.6 83.6 16.7 28:20:00

30Wsh 1023 274.8 4.3 164.5 110.3 16.8 31:19:00

31Balt 991 273.4 4.4 144.5 128.9 16.2 29:36:00

32Chi 967 238.5 3.9 137.0 101.5 14.4 28:20:00

 

[rzrback77]

2005

Team Plys Yds/G Y/P Pass Rush FD/G TOP

1KC 1059 387.0 5.8 238.1 148.9 21.7 32:09:00

2Sea 1020 369.7 5.8 216.1 153.6 22.6 29:17:00

3Indi 1000 362.4 5.8 256.0 106.4 22.7 30:22:00

4NYG 1055 361.7 5.5 223.6 138.1 19.5 30:26:00

5Den 1030 360.4 5.6 201.7 158.7 20.6 32:37:00

6Cin 1018 358.1 5.6 238.8 119.3 21.4 30:52:00

7NE 1031 352.0 5.5 257.5 94.5 20.9 30:19:00

8Arz 1075 348.4 5.2 277.3 71.1 19.0 31:20:00

9StL 1025 348.2 5.4 252.2 96.0 19.6 30:14:00

10SD 1022 347.9 5.4 218.4 129.5 21.1 31:34:00

11Wsh 1037 330.6 5.1 194.1 136.5 18.8 31:33:00

12Atl 1021 326.6 5.1 167.4 159.2 19.6 29:58:00

13Dal 1071 325.1 4.9 208.8 116.3 19.9 32:24:00

14Mia 1026 324.9 5.1 206.2 118.7 17.1 27:25:00

15Jac 1021 321.8 5.0 199.4 122.4 18.8 31:33:00

16Pitt 960 321.8 5.4 182.9 138.9 18.6 31:16:00

17Ten 1022 320.1 5.0 224.8 95.3 17.4 31:13:00

18GB 1051 319.9 4.9 235.4 84.5 19.9 30:48:00

19Phil 1027 319.3 5.0 229.8 89.5 17.6 28:22:00

20NO 1017 314.4 4.9 208.9 105.5 19.5 30:32:00

21Oak 997 309.4 5.0 223.9 85.5 18.4 28:07:00

22Car 964 309.4 5.1 204.4 105.0 17.4 30:48:00

23TB 985 294.8 4.8 180.6 114.2 16.8 30:45:00

24Balt 1056 293.3 4.4 193.0 100.3 17.9 30:22:00

25Min 945 288.3 4.9 196.6 91.7 17.8 28:46:00

26Cle 938 284.8 4.9 190.8 94.0 15.1 28:00:00

27Det 955 269.9 4.5 178.0 91.9 16.1 29:13:00

28Buf 930 257.6 4.4 157.2 100.4 16.2 29:04:00

29Chi 937 256.3 4.4 125.1 131.2 14.6 28:41:00

30Ho 954 253.3 4.2 139.8 113.5 15.2 28:10:00

31NYJ 907 248.1 4.4 165.1 83.0 15.7 26:37:00

32SF 865 224.2 4.1 118.6 105.6 11.9 27:18:00

 

[rzrback77]

Just comparing yards per game

Movement from 04 to 05

1 NYG from 23rd to 4th 19 positions +67 ypg

2 Arz 27 to 8 for 19 up +64

3 Wash 30 to 11 up 19 +56

4 Miami 29 to 14 up 15 +50

5 Cin 18 to 6 up 12 +37

6 Balt 31 to 24 up 7 +20

7 Sea 18 to 2 up 16 +18

8 Atl 20 to 12 up 8 +9

9 Jv 21 to 15 up 6 +9

10 Cle 28 to 26 up 2 +5

11 SD 10 to 10 no change +2

12 Dal 14 to 13 up 1 +0

13 Pitt 16 to 16 no change -2

14 NE 7 to 7 no change -6

15 NO 15 to 20 down 5 -11

16 Oak 17 to 21 down 4 -13

17 TB 22 to 23 down 1 -15

18 Chi 32 to 29 up 3 -17

19 Car 13 to 22 down 9 -18

20 StL 6 to 9 down 3 -19

21 Tenn 11 to 17 down 6 -23

22 Det 24 to 27 down 3 -23

23 KC 1 to 1 no change -31

24 Phil 9 to 19 down 10 -32

25 Den 5 to 5 no change -35

26 Buff 25 to 28 down 3 -35

27 Indi 2 to 3 down 1 -43

28 SF 26 to 32 down 6 -63

29 Hous 19 to 30 down 11 -68

30 GB 3 to 18 down 15 -77

31 NYJ 12 to 31 -92

32 Minn 4 to 25 -108