Offensive Projections are LIVE (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

Already today I agree these need to be tweaked slightly:

- Make Dayne the starter (more carries); Less carries for Bell

don't do it, Dave. be strong!!!!!

Tremblay and Pony Boy make strong arguments regarding Dayne. It is easy to hate him. We saw him play overweight in NY in an offense that did not suit his skills. But he was an animal in college. Probably the closest comparision is a player like Thomas Jones who was AWFUL in Arizona. But he looked good in TB and now in Chicago. I will admit I expected Dayne to be HORRIBLE last year when he was in the game. But that isn't what I saw. He looked pretty good actually. The team let Mike Anderson leave who was productive. Shanny said Anderson was the starter last year and has continually said Dayne is the guy here. I don't doubt his first gameplan was to get Ricky Williams, but that washed out with the suspension. Tatum Bell is explosive, but he doesn't do it every play. He plays soft and I get the feeling that there is something else going on with him (drugs, laziness, bad attitude, etc). Shanny just has not embraced Bell and until he does, I think we need to take him for his word. With Walker and Smith keeping defenses honest, I suspect Dayne could be a great play this year. His value is off the charts this second.

 

[nygiants56]

thanks for the hard work! some of the projections are WAY off base, IMO:

Chad Johnson is rated as WR2, with 95-1330-12, yet Carson Palmer is listed as QB15, with barely 3000 projected yards passing. You're assuming Palmer misses a few games, which begs the question: How do you expect Johnson to catch 95 balls with a backup QB seeing significant playing time early in the year? It appears you're assuming Palmer misses at least 3-4 games..

Marc Bulger is ridiculously high (QB5) for a guy recovering from shoulder surgery, a recovery that has been slower than expected. Bulger also has a new coaching staff with a new offensive system to learn.

Mike Vick - how does he wind up in the the QB8 spot ahead of Delhomme, Trent Green, Plummer, Big Ben, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner????? you seem enamored with Vick, a never-has-been in an offense unsuited for his talents.

Delhomme is a lock for 3500-25 nearly every year. Trent Green at QB13 is alarming, to say the least..

Why are you so low on Darrell Jackson , listing him at WR17? he was on pace for 108 catches last year before the knee flared up. He has been relatively injury-free for most of his career, so it stands to reason that he'll once again be the focal point of the explosive Seattle offense ( one that will struggle to run the ball without Steve Hutchinson which will force them to throw MORE in 2006)..

Joe Horn - too low at WR33.

Jerramy Stevens at TE-7 is a bit high, no?

Kellen Winslow at TE-11, projected for 55-616-4 is too funny.. ..that made my day!!!

A guy who's never played more than 2 games in his NFL career, has just 5 catches to his name, played only 1 year in college as a starter, and suddenly he's going to jump up to 55 catches for 616 yards?? Come on now, he won't get 1/2 that!! Winslow is essentially still a rookie, he hasn't been able to test his legs on the field much over the past two seasons.He has to fight Joe Jurevicious,Braylon Edwards and Droughns for receptions, passes coming from a mistake-prone QB named Charlie Frye..Let's also not forget that Winslow looked awful in the preseason games in which he played back in 2004. It wasn't like he was Jeremy Shockey, who ran people over in preseason and gave you a glimpse of what he'll become as a starting TE..

Somehow you have Winslow ahead of PROVEN guys like Troupe, LJ Smith, Clark. You have him listed just 3.3 FPT's behind Chris Cooley!!?!?! Cooley now has Al Saunders as OC , a guy who LOVES to throw to the TE constantly..

Lamont Jordan peaked last year and should head back to the middle of the pack in 2006. You won't see his reception totals approach last year's number(70), you'll be luck to see half that... Remember, Norv Turner coached that offense in 2005, and he always runs his offenses thru his RB's, giving them a LOT of action. You're assuming the new coaching staff that's been out of football for a decade can just flip the switch and turn things around overnight. Even Clinton Portis struggled in Joe Gibbs' first year back as HC in Washington.

the rest of the projections I could deal with, these were the ones that stood out the most.

thanks for the effort , it had to take some time to put that all together!

 

[wannabee]

David, I love the first round of projections each year. But, I have a question:

Why are many rookie WRs that will get SOME catches (who knows how many) not listed as getting any catches? I have only looked at a few, but Avant, Travis Wilson, New Orleans rook wrs, etc are all not listed as having one catch.

Michael Lewis is projected to get 9 catches and the rookie Hass, NO, projected with none.

 

[joffer]

Mike Vick - how does he wind up in the the QB8 spot ahead of Delhomme, Trent Green, Plummer, Big Ben, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner????? you seem enamored with Vick, a never-has-been in an offense unsuited for his talents. Delhomme is a lock for 3500-25 nearly every year. Trent Green at QB13 is alarming, to say the least..

ummmm....because he was #10 last year and previously has finished as high as #3?? David can correct me if i'm wrong, but he's not looking at one QB relative to the others, he's projecting and letting the numbers do the talking. Barely 10 points separates 5 or 6 guys in his QB rankings. It's not unrealistic for a guy who finished 10th last year to finish 8th this year.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

David,

Great stuff. Wonderful to think football all year round.....

A question about the RBs.

I see Maroney (52), DeAngelo Williams (48), and Maurice Drew (83) all listed well behind the encumbents for each team (Dillon - 27, Foster - 21, Taylor - 31).

Do you not see any of them getting the ball enough to be a Top 30 RB this season?

I included Drew in the discussion since he has current rumors of having "a shot" at the top job. While I don't see him supplanting Fred Taylor, I would consider him to probably get more opportunities than Alvin Pearman, for example.

Nice work DD.

 

[Dave Baker]

Hell, all the staff except Baker probably had their IQs drop by 20 points just by you making a comment like that. Maybe Baker's too, but I don't know if there is such a thing as negative IQ.

That hurt. Looks like I'll have to dominate you once again in TOCOL.

 

[David Dodds]

David,Great stuff. Wonderful to think football all year round.....A question about the RBs.I see Maroney (52), DeAngelo Williams (48), and Maurice Drew (83) all listed well behind the encumbents for each team (Dillon - 27, Foster - 21, Taylor - 31).Do you not see any of them getting the ball enough to be a Top 30 RB this season?I included Drew in the discussion since he has current rumors of having "a shot" at the top job. While I don't see him supplanting Fred Taylor, I would consider him to probably get more opportunities than Alvin Pearman, for example.Nice work DD.

I always start extremely cautious with rookies. First they have to sign. Then they have to impress in camp. Then they have to look good in the preseason games. Then they need to be much better than the veteran because the HC almost always prefers the RB that knows the blocking and blitz schemes. So many things can happen where they simply don't get a real shot as a rookie. I do think Maroney and Williams ended up in great situations. I am interested in seeing how this plays out.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

David,

Great stuff. Wonderful to think football all year round.....

A question about the RBs.

I see Maroney (52), DeAngelo Williams (48), and Maurice Drew (83) all listed well behind the encumbents for each team (Dillon - 27, Foster - 21, Taylor - 31).

Do you not see any of them getting the ball enough to be a Top 30 RB this season?

I included Drew in the discussion since he has current rumors of having "a shot" at the top job. While I don't see him supplanting Fred Taylor, I would consider him to probably get more opportunities than Alvin Pearman, for example.

Nice work DD.

I always start extremely cautious with rookies. First they have to sign. Then they have to impress in camp. Then they have to look good in the preseason games. Then they need to be much better than the veteran because the HC almost always prefers the RB that knows the blocking and blitz schemes. So many things can happen where they simply don't get a real shot as a rookie. I do think Maroney and Williams ended up in great situations. I am interested in seeing how this plays out.

All solid points. Thanks Dave.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Question time again.

This time on the Miami Offense.

Last season, the Dolphins put up 1725 yards rushing. In 2005, the bulk of that was mostly Ronnie Brown (907) and Ricky Williams (743). Granted I don't see Brown picking up all of that this year (1650), but I was concerned when I saw his yards for this year projected as under 1100 yards rushing.

I thought that you might have off-loaded him on to someone else such as Sammy Morris and Travis Minor, but that was only 355 yards. So you have RBs only getting 1400+ yards rather than 1700+, and another chunk going to a running QB in Culpepper.

I also saw no significant increase in the passing yards for Miami (only a 2 yard change projected from 2005).

So, the questions:

1. Do you expect Miami to be less productive as a whole on offense?

2. Do you feel comfortable that Culpepper will be able to pick up over 200 yards rushing after the heinous knee injury?

3. Do you believe that the coaching philosophy will de-emphasize the run by 20% from last year?

My personal opinion is that Brown would exceed that 1100 yards projected here, and the offense would produce about the same as last year.

 

[LHUCKS]

I always start extremely cautious with rookies. First they have to sign. Then they have to impress in camp. Then they have to look good in the preseason games. Then they need to be much better than the veteran because the HC almost always prefers the RB that knows the blocking and blitz schemes. So many things can happen where they simply don't get a real shot as a rookie. I do think Maroney and Williams ended up in great situations. I am interested in seeing how this plays out.

Although I've been stating since day one Drew is the goods.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I always start extremely cautious with rookies. First they have to sign. Then they have to impress in camp. Then they have to look good in the preseason games. Then they need to be much better than the veteran because the HC almost always prefers the RB that knows the blocking and blitz schemes. So many things can happen where they simply don't get a real shot as a rookie. I do think Maroney and Williams ended up in great situations. I am interested in seeing how this plays out.

Although I've been stating since day one Drew is the goods.

Gee, I wonder why :avatar:

 

[joffer]

is this available via the home page yet? can't find it...

 

[H.K.]

David,

Question: The Minnesota offense is projected to have only 380 running back carries despite having added Hutchinson to the OL, Richardson at FB, and a new HC who says he wants a ball control offense. Can you expand on why this team is estimated to pass 55% of the time with Brad Johnson at QB?

Thanks

 

[radballs]

is this available via the home page yet? can't find it...

Me neither. Hence, the bump.

 

[Capt Hook]

Great work David - one suggetion - when you do your next update, would you please post the date somewhere - that way we can look and see how you addressed some of the things you have already noted here that you will change

 

[Crimedogg32]

I think adding something along the lines of a VBD number would be cool with the projections so you can compare different positions and see tiers easier

 

[Bri]

is this available via the home page yet?  can't find it...

Me neither. Hence, the bump.

prolly one in the app forum

 

[Tau837]

If you have Tatum Bell at 5.0 ypc and Dayne at 4.8 ypc, I'll guarantee you, barring injury, that you have the number of carries by each guy switched.  In that circumstance, Dayne gets the larger share of the work, no question.

I also find it very interesting that you have Bush with more carries than McAllister.

Seems like you are giving too much credit to the CoP RB and not enough to the featured RB.

Just my initial whining... 

Hi PB,The New Orleans situation will definitely be one to watch there. We feel pretty good with these projected carries (or at least as good as you can feel in May).

How do you see the carries splitting between Bush and McAllister?

J

Personally, I see the carries as breaking with McAllister getting 230 carries and Bush getting 165 carries - or a ratio very similar to that. Bush will get touches catching the football also, but I think McAllister does the dirty work, and he'll get enough relief from Bush to limit his work some, which will help him with the injury recovery.

I just feel compelled to point out that the top 2 RBs on NFL teams averaged a collective 347.5 carries (EDIT: last season). New Orleans had only 261. This projection is at 395, which was reached by only 10 teams last season:ATL 401

CIN 398

DAL 395

DEN 412

IND 400

KC 455

NYG 396

SD 397

SEA 441

WAS 440

I don't see it, especially when the two backs you are talking about includes one rookie and the other coming off a serious knee injury. I think 165 looks pretty good for Bush, maybe a bit low, but 230 looks too high for Deuce IMO.

 

[joffer]

Tennessee QBs are projected for 1040 attempts

 

[There it is]

Great stuff better than expected.

 

[videoguy505]

I see IDPs are up too, any word on DSTs and PKs?

 

[fatness]

Tennessee QBs are projected for 1040 attempts

That total is based on the assumption that McNair goes to Baltimore. Boller is shown having 65 attempts.

 

[Tommy Collins]

You aren't expecting Leonard Pope to catch a pass this year?

Mario Williams not playing?

 

[LC-Hawks]

I have had a dozen or more mocks already....using your concensus listing. The teams just do not turn out the same as they do when you add fantasy values.

I have tried in the past to do my own projections but with mixed success. I found that you folks hit closer to home than I do, so I always look forward to seeing what the experts have done.

Just tonight I was wondering when we would see your first draft of projections and... slam bam thank you ma'am... here they are.

NOW I can get down to some serious tweaking of numbers, arranging and rearranging my draft boards. I am in heaven! Thanks guys!

 

[Wadsworth]

I included Drew in the discussion since he has current rumors of having "a shot" at the top job. While I don't see him supplanting Fred Taylor, I would consider him to probably get more opportunities than Alvin Pearman, for example.

There's a chance Pearman won't even make the roster. It could come down to him or Toefield and I can't say for sure that Alvin can beat out Toefield if Drew is returning punts and serving as 3rd down back. I'd bet on the Jags keeping Pearman in that situation, but Toefield is a better runner and anything can happen.

 

[Blackhawk 69]

 

[David Dodds]

Thanks everyone for your comments. These will officially go live on the website later today (after I add PK and team defense numbers). I have reworked a lot of numbers based on solid insight from this thread. The second pass is always a MAJOR improvement and the reason we posted here before the website.

 

[nygiants56]

Mike Vick - how does he wind up in the the QB8 spot ahead of Delhomme, Trent Green, Plummer, Big Ben, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner????? you seem enamored with Vick, a never-has-been in an offense unsuited for his talents.

Delhomme is a lock for 3500-25 nearly every year. Trent Green at QB13  is alarming, to say the least..

ummmm....because he was #10 last year and previously has finished as high as #3?? David can correct me if i'm wrong, but he's not looking at one QB relative to the others, he's projecting and letting the numbers do the talking. Barely 10 points separates 5 or 6 guys in his QB rankings. It's not unrealistic for a guy who finished 10th last year to finish 8th this year.

umm...ok..fair point..I just don't see Vick on even par with some of the others I mentioned. his passing stats are the main concern for me.

but Dodds is using math for this, so I understand the rankings.

IMO, I'd never rank Delhomme lower than Vick ,using fuzzy math or not..

 

[joffer]

Mike Vick - how does he wind up in the the QB8 spot ahead of Delhomme, Trent Green, Plummer, Big Ben, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner????? you seem enamored with Vick, a never-has-been in an offense unsuited for his talents.

Delhomme is a lock for 3500-25 nearly every year. Trent Green at QB13  is alarming, to say the least..

ummmm....because he was #10 last year and previously has finished as high as #3?? David can correct me if i'm wrong, but he's not looking at one QB relative to the others, he's projecting and letting the numbers do the talking. Barely 10 points separates 5 or 6 guys in his QB rankings. It's not unrealistic for a guy who finished 10th last year to finish 8th this year.

umm...ok..fair point..I just don't see Vick on even par with some of the others I mentioned. his passing stats are the main concern for me.

but Dodds is using math for this, so I understand the rankings.

IMO, I'd never rank Delhomme lower than Vick ,using fuzzy math or not..

in the 13 weeks last year where both Vick and Delhomme played (Vick hurt one week, both by weeks), Vick scored more 7 of 13 times. Now there's a lot more to factor in (injury risk, how MUCH one is outscoring the other, etc.), but it's a lot closer than you might think.

 

[Davej626]

Hey DD. Quick question. How do you explain the sudden and dramatic drop in passing yards last year? And, in a related note, why the huge increase in the projections for this year over last year's numbers? Thanks!

Passing/Receiving Yards: We project 112,084

NFL data - 109,467 (2003), 115,338 (2004), 11,721 (2005)

 

[george]

 

[Couch Potato]

Hey DD. Quick question. How do you explain the sudden and dramatic drop in passing yards last year? And, in a related note, why the huge increase in the projections for this year over last year's numbers? Thanks!

Passing/Receiving Yards: We project 112,084

NFL data - 109,467 (2003), 115,338 (2004), 11,721 (2005)

Those are the 3,600 yards T.O. would have tacked on if he'd played the whole year.

 

[jdraiders]

Thanks everyone for your comments. These will officially go live on the website later today (after I add PK and team defense numbers). I have reworked a lot of numbers based on solid insight from this thread. The second pass is always a MAJOR improvement and the reason we posted here before the website.

Will the draft dominator be posted as well?thanks!

 

[Crimedogg32]

was Abdul Hodge left off purposly because it seems like all reports are saying he is the likely starter with Hawk and Barnett

 

[Musesboy]

David and John,

Thanks for all the hard work on these. I have a question about Team Defense projections:

I notice that the total yardage allowed is part of the projections for each team. In your opinion, what is the best way to break down the expectations against the run and against the pass, rather than just having a total for both? Do you actually have that information available, or is that not part of the calculation when you project these numbers?

If I want to know who will be strongest vs. the run or pass, should I look at last year as a baseline and find out the ratios of runass for each team and then multiply that by the projected total for this year? Or take a three year average ratio for each team and use that? Or do you have another suggestion that you think would be more accurate? And the same question for TDs allowed to the run and pass.

Any thoughts would be welcome.

Thanks.

 

[Spike]

Something else that really jumps out at me is that you have a cumulative 61 catches by DET RBs.

That just is way too low in a Martz offense.

We can debate about who will be carrying the load there - whether it's Jones, Pinner (  :X   ), or Calhoun (my personal choice, but I admit severe bias), but one thing we can be pretty certain of is that Martz will get whomever is in the backfield a significant number of catches.  I would expect the top RB reciever in DET to have at least 50-55 catches by themselves.  Martz loves to exploit the RB/LB mismatch.

Thanks PB. You bring up an interesting point. Can you take a guy with a certain philosophy like Martz who had the QB talent in Warner / Bulger and the RB talent in Faulk / Jackson and plug that into a situation like Detroit with their talent and have similar trends? It's a balance between playing like you want to play and playing to the strengths of the talent you have. It's been fun to watch guys like Parcells do this when you have a "run" oriented coach lead the league in passing attempts with Bledsoe and such. It's sort of a chicken and the egg question.

I've no doubt Martz would love to throw to the RBs where one puts up Faulk type receptions. Just not sure if they'll be able to execute what they want to do. Definitely agree with your premise though.

J

I think you can go back to the Super Bowl between the Rams and the Pats to see that Martz will force what he wants to do, even if it isn't the right thing to do. (From that Super Bowl, if Martz hadn't been so stubborn, the Pats would have lost.)

 

[Knowlt]

Why is Larry Johnson the #1 overall rated player, but #2 in the RB only ratings?

 

[joffer]

Why is Larry Johnson the #1 overall rated player, but #2 in the RB only ratings?

it's just the way the averages work out. more staff members did the RB rankings then the overall, and depending on how they ranked LT and LJ, it could swap things.

 

[J R]

QUOTE(joffer @ May 18 2006, 08:29 AM)QUOTE(David Dodds @ May 18 2006, 10:25 AM)Already today I agree these need to be tweaked slightly:- Make Dayne the starter (more carries); Less carries for Belldon't do it, Dave. be strong!!!!! wink1.gif*Tremblay and Pony Boy make strong arguments regarding Dayne. It is easy to hate him. We saw him play overweight in NY in an offense that did not suit his skills. But he was an animal in college. Probably the closest comparision is a player like Thomas Jones who was AWFUL in Arizona. But he looked good in TB and now in Chicago. I will admit I expected Dayne to be HORRIBLE last year when he was in the game. But that isn't what I saw. He looked pretty good actually.

No one wants to let numbers get in the way of a good groupthink. If you take out Dayne's much-debated game against Dallas last year, he rushed for 3.7 ypc, precisely in line with his 3.7 career ypc. Mike Anderson rushed for 4.2 ypc last year. Now Ron Dayne's going to rush for 4.6 or 4.8 ypc?? Based on what?