Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
*** OFFICIAL *** 13/14 Off-Season Dynasty Trade Thread (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Concept Coop
- Start date
bengalbuck
Footballguy
His cumulative stats did put him around WR21 in PPR. His per game average put him down around 25.
And he really only outscored the Brian Hartline type guys (who you can get dirt cheap) by a few points on the season. If he keeps putting up those type of stats, his value is very low. He's pretty darn close to replacement level and not the type of guy who should be in the starting lineup for a good fantasy team in my opinion.
The question is if he has a good shot at improving those numbers or not. On the one hand, Flacco definitely had a bad year. On the other hand, last year seemed to setup perfectly for Torrey. He was really the only healthy, established target for Flacco. He saw 137 targets. That's a ton. He only had 65 catches. That's under 50%. You can maybe blame some of that on Flacco. And part of it is that he is targeted deeper down the field than your average receiver. But a lot of the blame has to be placed on Smith as well. It also follows a 2012 season where he had only 49 receptions on 110 targets, again well below 50%.
So you have a guy who is likely going to catch less than half his targets. Playing in an offense that is going to run a lot. And he'll be competing with Pitta, Daniels and Rice for targets (in an offense that loves to target backs and TEs) along with the arrival of Steve Smith. I don't see him getting 137 targets again. If he is down to 120 and only catches 55-60, he is going to have a hard time putting up PPR numbers that actually help you.
I liked him a lot last offseason, but I have sold him everywhere I owned him and think he is currently one of the most overvalued fantasy players out there. You can get the same production from Brian Hartline at a fraction of the cost.
EBF
Footballguy
Torrey has some similarities with Maclin and Wallace. People want him to be a complete guy, but IMO he's just not.
These kind of players have value, but maybe their best value is in the ability to pawn them off for real elite potential before everyone realizes what they are.
These kind of players have value, but maybe their best value is in the ability to pawn them off for real elite potential before everyone realizes what they are.
Last edited by a moderator:
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
These are all good points. I do think that Smith does provide a bit of an additional bonus over guys like Hartline though in job security, a guy who could be replaced at any time including this year.
I think there's still an upside to Torrey too. He started off the year so well and then Baltimore's whole offense just collapsed.
I'm all for getting value out of him but I just don't think Terrance Williams was it.
coolnerd
Footballguy
Dudes like Torrey have value if a fantasy football owner recognizes what they have. I mean I like starting that guy (Stevie Johnson, Hartline,etc) as my WR 3/4 week-in week (or even better having 2 or 3 of them to play match-up with) out since he really scores like a weak WR2 of high WR3. I don't have to work the WW to find this year's nate Washing or Lance Moore. I am already doing better by just managing my roster in the right way. Obviously, a player has to watch what they pay for them and should know what they have, but every player does not have to be elite to me help win.
Last edited by a moderator:
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Gave: Larry Fitzgerald
Got: CJ Spiller
Got: CJ Spiller
Khy
Footballguy
Same guy has 1.02 this season. So, short of him making a HUGE turn around there's a good chance it's a top 5 pick next year.
Plus, Jackson is ancient. Good chance Brown sees a lot of playing time this season. I doubt they have up a 4th round pick for someone that isn't gonna play.
And if he doesn't get on the field this year. Jackson's contract is up and Spiller can opt out next season. If Brown were drafted by the Bills this season he'd probably be going off late first early second in dynasty anyway considering how many touches there are to go around in Buffalo.
EDIT: Besides... in my opinion picks like 1.03 - 1.12 are almost the exact same value. All of those guys either have questionable talent with great situation (Sankey, Ebron, Adams, Matthews, Benjamin) or questionable situation with great talent (Beckham, Robinson, Moncrief). Any of the top like 12-14 guys past Evans and Watkins could be made an argument for 1.03 to me. Which is why in every league I've been trying to see if I can trade something like my 1st round this year for next year 1st and a 2nd this season. To me, Brown is equivalent to a high upside second.
Last edited by a moderator:
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Williams led the nation in receiving yards as a senior, was drafted in the third round, to a team that had a 2nd round grade on him, and will be playing in a spot that all but assures quality looks and a good deal of TDs.
Based on the talk I've heard and read--I'd have a hard time calling him over hyped. 65/1,000/7 seems pretty safe--numbers that pushed Michael Floyd to into a 2nd round start-up pick somehow.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
10 team 2QB
I traded Flacco and 3.02 for Alex Smith. I really like Smith and I have a habit of buying people coming into the 2nd year in an offense (also bought Cutler through the season last year). I also still have 6 picks above 3.02, so it was disposable. Got my guy curious to see opinions about it though.
I traded Flacco and 3.02 for Alex Smith. I really like Smith and I have a habit of buying people coming into the 2nd year in an offense (also bought Cutler through the season last year). I also still have 6 picks above 3.02, so it was disposable. Got my guy curious to see opinions about it though.
ItsOnlytheRiver
Footballguy
No thank you. I like Flacco more, barely, but even if I didn't you've got to like Flacco's situation more. Signed to a big contract and has a ring. He's penciled into a starting gig for a while. Smith doesn't have that luxury yet and I'm not sure he's going to get it either. If you like Smith more I can see making this move in a start 1 league but in a start 2 where these bottom barrel QBs actually have value simply because they have a starting job - give me Flacco.
EBF
Footballguy
FWIW, Floyd was also a top 15 NFL draft pick and therefore rated in some respects as a pretty rare talent even before he played a down in the league.
Williams to me is just a situation guy, but it's a good situation. 1000 yards is not out of the question.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Floyd is also overhyped, imo, but I agree that his trade value is absurdly high right now, so its not a bad comparison if you think he could give you that kind of exit value next offseason. If you think williams is going to emerge like that in an offense that already has dez, witten and murray, then go get romo. Stat.
bengalbuck
Footballguy
My post wasn't meant to imply that Torrey Smith is worthless, simply that he is overrated. He is currently going in the 4th round of dynasty startup drafts according to the latest ADP data. That seems way high to me. What are your chances of winning a championship with Torrey as your 4th best player?
He may just be what he is: an okay guy to plug in to get you 12 points a game or so in PPR. That's not much above "replacement level" or "baseline production" or however you want to term it. Basically, you can get your 11 PPG with a decent waiver wire pickup or a late round pick like Brian Hartline. If he's just a 12 PPG guy going forward, his value should fall like a rock here pretty shortly. That's of course assuming he doesn't have a lot of unrealized upside.
The reason I personally don't see much upside is that there are very few scenarios in which he gets more targets than he got last year. He was 16th in the NFL in targets in 2013, ahead of Larry Fitzgerald, Eric Decker, Jordy Nelson, Desean Jackson and others who all had better fantasy production. He had 4 less targets than Demaryius Thomas last season as another data point. Hard to ever see him as a 70+ catch guy with his career catch rate well below 50%. Your only real hope of getting much over that 12 PPG is if he has 10+ TDs. And he's not really a red zone guy, so you're hoping to hit on a whole bunch of long bombs which probably isn't realistic.
I sold him in the last 2 leagues I owned him in a couple months ago. One league for Emmanuel Sanders and a 1st and 2nd round pick (which I flipped for Andre Ellington). And in another I packaged him with Alf Morris (who I'm also very down on) and Jordan Reed for Jordy Nelson and a 1st (Carlos Hyde). Those probably seem like losses (and were judged so when posted in this thread), but I was willing to sell "low" because I don't believe in him anymore.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
I sent Torrey Smith for Monte Ball earlier this off season for many of those same reasons, 4-90 as a standard with a couple 5-150-1 games but limited upside in that offense with that catch rate and QB
bengalbuck
Footballguy
I don't own Williams anywhere, but I am somewhat intrigued by him simply because I'm very high on Romo and think he could throw for 4,800 yards.
Even if Dez has 1,500, Witten 900 and Murray 400, that would still leave 2,000 yards leftover. There's Gavin Escobar and whoever emerges as the #3 and #4 WRs. But it's really not that hard to do a realistic breakdown and find 1,000 yards for Williams. I get why people are excited about him and wouldn't be surprised at all if he put up low end WR2 type numbers.
He did have 740 yards on only 74 targets last year as a rookie. With another 25-30 targets, 1,000 yards is reachable.
bengalbuck
Footballguy
That's a pretty sweet trade. In one league, I tried like crazy to trade Torrey for a month. Even posted that I'd take .75 cents on the dollar for him and couldn't generate any decent offers.
coolnerd
Footballguy
yeah, that's not a cost where I am looking for a guy who I am hoping is my 4th best WR much less 4th best overall player.
Sinner
Footballguy
Team A gets: 1.02
Team B gets: 1.04, 1.11, 2.11 (23 overall), DeAngelo Williams, and Chris Givens
Team A features Stafford, AP, TRich, MJD, Calvin, Fitz, and Jimmy Graham. Team also still owns 1.09 and 2.01 (13 overall)
Team B features Aaron Rogers and McCoy, but is rebuilding
Team B gets: 1.04, 1.11, 2.11 (23 overall), DeAngelo Williams, and Chris Givens
Team A features Stafford, AP, TRich, MJD, Calvin, Fitz, and Jimmy Graham. Team also still owns 1.09 and 2.01 (13 overall)
Team B features Aaron Rogers and McCoy, but is rebuilding
Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
Just a couple of weeks ago I paid 2014 2.5 for Tate in a 10 team deep keeeper. Tate is my #4 RB right now, so it seems like this might be going rate. I have an owner saying he MIGHT offer me a 2015 1st (likely late round) and I might just visit that option. No that anyone cares about my trades, just long way of saying you might have got a bit more if you held out a bit. Then again, a bird in the hand so I think it was a fair trade and you did not need Tate anyway.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Ben Tate going for a future 2nd. WTF???
cstu
Footballguy
He was traded along with Super Mart for Chris Johnson and Powell in one of my leagues.
People are concerned about injuries and West/Crowell.
I did really want the first but the guy that offered the trade had a past trade w me that kinda blew up in his face and since I was on the receiving end of that prior trade I felt it'd be ok to just go ahead and do it. If I was Startin tate this year my team would've had a lot of probs lol so what the hell. Hope it's a high pick , if not I get a fourth rd pick too
West and Crowell are a minor concern health is bigger also the fact that gordon my be in timeout I'm sure there's gonna be 8/9 in the box quite a bit this yearAlso , I had four 2nd Rd picks this year they were j hill(2.1) m Lee(2.3) cj mosley(2.8) and manziel(2.6). I would've traded tate for any of those picks with my rb stable
Last edited by a moderator:
coolnerd
Footballguy
my speculation is that he wanted to rid himself of two guys that probably will never start for him and did not want to add 5 rookies to his roster. if his roster is as strong as the note makes it appear adding the 1.02, 1.09, and 2.01 is more than enough (and we don't know if he has later picks for more flyer type players).
FUBAR
Footballguy
New auction / cap league so difficult to assess projected standings and the salaries impact values
1. Carlos Hyde, 2015 3rd for Stephen Tulloch, 2015 1st
2. Cody Lattimer for 2015 1st
3. Dwayne Bowe for 2015 2nd, 3rd
The same team dealt away picks for Bowe and Lattimer. I dealt Hyde.
1. Carlos Hyde, 2015 3rd for Stephen Tulloch, 2015 1st
2. Cody Lattimer for 2015 1st
3. Dwayne Bowe for 2015 2nd, 3rd
The same team dealt away picks for Bowe and Lattimer. I dealt Hyde.
Jrodicus
Footballguy
More to add:
1.03 (Cooks), Joique Bell
for
Stacy, 2.03 (Moncrief)
I'm not too worried about Mason at this point.
1.07 (OBJ), 2.11
for
1.06 (Matthews), 3.06
I was OTC with the 1.04 with a potential trade in the works. I really wanted Matthews or Sankey. By moving up 1 spot, I was guaranteed to get one of those two (and I was pretty confident Ebron would go 1.05).
1.04 (Sankey)
for
2.02 (Hill), 2015 1st, 2nd, 3rd (this team earned the 1.02 this year)
Sum of trades
Watkins, OBJ, Joiquie Bell, Christine Michael, Kendall Hunter, Marcus Lattimore
for
Stacy, Jordan Matthews, Davante Adams, Donte Moncrief, Jeremy Hill, 3.06, 2015 1st, 2nd, 3rd
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
the only trades i like for you were trading away sankey and trading away forte. I would have stayed put overall, after seeing the end result
Last edited by a moderator:
Jrodicus
Footballguy
Yeah, I'm sure there are a number of people that agree with you.
Most of the people involved in these trades are not "safe" bets. A lot of how someone views the sum of the parts will be based on how they view Watkins, Stacy, and Michael. I like Watkins, and I think he is fairly safe, but there are a number of other good WRs who could score more points in their career than he does. I'm also not terribly worried about Zac Stacy at this point.
Part of my strategy in this league was based on guys that I really liked but felt good about my chances of getting later than where I personally have them ranked. I like Matthews more than OBJ and Cooks, and Hill more than Hyde (or any other RB not named Sankey), and Moncrief is flirting with my personal top 12. All of the rookies I have so taken so far I consider 1st round value.
Jrodicus
Footballguy
In a start 2 QB league, Luck should easily be the single most valuable piece, imo.
Probably a fair enough value, but I'm not high on Kaep.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I failed to notice the 2qb caveat. But I still take the Jones side when it's 4wr as well.
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
Similar threads
