*** OFFICIAL *** 13/14 Off-Season Dynasty Trade Thread (2 Viewers)

[donnie baseball]

Just went down in one of my leagues. Pretty standard PPR.

Josh Gordon

for

Tre Mason and a 2015 first (probably pretty late 9-12)

Seems like team sold Gordon pretty low, but he does have Stacy and is in kind of a rebuild. I can see both sides.

 

[cloppbeast]

Just went down in one of my leagues. Pretty standard PPR.

Josh Gordon

for

Tre Mason and a 2015 first (probably pretty late 9-12)

Seems like team sold Gordon pretty low, but he does have Stacy and is in kind of a rebuild. I can see both sides.

Gordon owner panicking, imo.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Just went down in one of my leagues. Pretty standard PPR.

Josh Gordon

for

Tre Mason and a 2015 first (probably pretty late 9-12)

Seems like team sold Gordon pretty low, but he does have Stacy and is in kind of a rebuild. I can see both sides.

Gordon owner panicking, imo.

Gordon has now had 5 drug testing related issues in the past three and a half years, plus the speeding / weed thing. The huge ceiling is obvious, but his floor is never playing again if he can't / won't stop smoking weed. Hard to call cashing out before the suspension hits "panic" IMO. I certainly wouldn't give a 1st for him -- I don't think it's super likely that he can survive stage three testing moving forward.

 

[cloppbeast]

Gordon has now had 5 drug testing related issues in the past three and a half years, plus the speeding / weed thing. The huge ceiling is obvious, but his floor is never playing again if he can't / won't stop smoking weed. Hard to call cashing out before the suspension hits "panic" IMO. I certainly wouldn't give a 1st for him -- I don't think it's super likely that he can survive stage three testing moving forward.

Call it whatever you want, I think he is selling Gordon low. I completely understand the urge to rid of risk, especially since he already profited on said player. But he probably could have gotten more, I would think. Could be wrong, though. Gordon's value is bird shot right now - all over the place.

 

[Phenix]

Just went down in one of my leagues. Pretty standard PPR.

Josh Gordon

for

Tre Mason and a 2015 first (probably pretty late 9-12)

Seems like team sold Gordon pretty low, but he does have Stacy and is in kind of a rebuild. I can see both sides.

Gordon owner panicking, imo.

Really? I believe it is a Gordon owner being smart and not being stubborn.

 

[matttyl]

Just went down in one of my leagues. Pretty standard PPR.

Josh Gordon

for

Tre Mason and a 2015 first (probably pretty late 9-12)

Seems like team sold Gordon pretty low, but he does have Stacy and is in kind of a rebuild. I can see both sides.

Gordon owner panicking, imo.

Really? I believe it is a Gordon owner being smart and not being stubborn.

As do I, which is why I traded Gordon for Fitz and Derrick Johnson after also losing Daryl Washington to a suspension in my IDP league. I'm in "win now" mode and can't wait around to see what happens with Gordon.

 

[Gawain]

Phenix, on 20 Jun 2014 - 09:11 AM, said:

cloppbeast, on 20 Jun 2014 - 08:38 AM, said:

donnie baseball, on 20 Jun 2014 - 06:18 AM, said:Just went down in one of my leagues. Pretty standard PPR.

Josh Gordon

for

Tre Mason and a 2015 first (probably pretty late 9-12)

Seems like team sold Gordon pretty low, but he does have Stacy and is in kind of a rebuild. I can see both sides.

Gordon owner panicking, imo.

Really? I believe it is a Gordon owner being smart and not being stubborn.

I think it's an overpay for Gordon (basically two late firsts).

 

[Adam Harstad]

side a: zac stacy, zach ertz

side b: jordan cameron, ridley, seastunk

12 team PPR dynasty league

I like the Cameron/Ridley side.

 

[maxhyde]

Team A: Demaryius Thomas

Team B: Michael Floyd, Brandin Cooks, 2015 1st round pick

Dynasty, both teams are contenders

QRRWWWTF(RWT)

I like Floyd and Cooks but still take DT here

its funny, I don't like either of them that much and I still take them and the pick. when manning retires, thomas becomes just as uncertain as floyd or cooks, and not only do you get both, you get a first round pick. That's a steep price to pay for a year or two of elite production.

I am going to love when Manning retires and I can get DT for pennies on the dollar. The guy was putting up wr3 numbers coming off an Achilles and he had Tebow averaging 150 passing yards a game. Quick question for everyone that thinks DT will fall off the face of the earth when Manning retires. How do guys like Gordon, Andre Johnson, Green do it without quarterbacks like Manning?P.S. Thanks for making me laugh saying DT would be just as much as an uncertain as a rookie who has yet to play in the NFL.

Yeah I am not on board DT is going to lose a ton of value without Manning.

I actually like the other side in this knowing DT is and will be a top 5 WR post Manning

 

[maxhyde]

side a: zac stacy, zach ertz

side b: jordan cameron, ridley, seastunk

12 team PPR dynasty league

I like the Cameron/Ridley side.

Me too...I guess I like Stacy even less than I thought I did

 

[maxhyde]

Just went down in one of my leagues. Pretty standard PPR.

Josh Gordon

for

Tre Mason and a 2015 first (probably pretty late 9-12)

Seems like team sold Gordon pretty low, but he does have Stacy and is in kind of a rebuild. I can see both sides.

Gordon owner panicking, imo.

Gordon has now had 5 drug testing related issues in the past three and a half years, plus the speeding / weed thing. The huge ceiling is obvious, but his floor is never playing again if he can't / won't stop smoking weed. Hard to call cashing out before the suspension hits "panic" IMO. I certainly wouldn't give a 1st for him -- I don't think it's super likely that he can survive stage three testing moving forward.

I agree with all of this.

However I am still not selling him at this point or when his suspension is announced. We know his potential and I will take the big risk of burning a roster spot on him as long as the reward is he may get his act together. Sunk cost at this point the only way to recover is hold and hope.

 

[maxhyde]

12 PPR SuperFlex TE Premium

Team T gives: AP, Jerrick, 2015 1st (mid to late)

Team Q gives, Montee Ball, Anderson

I'll take the AP side with the pick, as much as I like Ball.

+1

+2

 

[cstu]

Just went down in one of my leagues. Pretty standard PPR.

Josh Gordon

for

Tre Mason and a 2015 first (probably pretty late 9-12)

Seems like team sold Gordon pretty low, but he does have Stacy and is in kind of a rebuild. I can see both sides.

Gordon owner panicking, imo.

Gordon has now had 5 drug testing related issues in the past three and a half years, plus the speeding / weed thing. The huge ceiling is obvious, but his floor is never playing again if he can't / won't stop smoking weed. Hard to call cashing out before the suspension hits "panic" IMO. I certainly wouldn't give a 1st for him -- I don't think it's super likely that he can survive stage three testing moving forward.

I agree with all of this.

However I am still not selling him at this point or when his suspension is announced. We know his potential and I will take the big risk of burning a roster spot on him as long as the reward is he may get his act together. Sunk cost at this point the only way to recover is hold and hope.

If you can get a potential starting RB and a 1st for Gordon right now take it and run. I posted in the Gordon thread that Gordon will likely miss two seasons if he does get an indefinite suspension.

More risk here than people are realizing, not the least of which is tying up a roster spot for two years (unless you have a league that allows you to put suspended players on IR).

 

[maxhyde]

Just went down in one of my leagues. Pretty standard PPR.

Josh Gordon

for

Tre Mason and a 2015 first (probably pretty late 9-12)

Seems like team sold Gordon pretty low, but he does have Stacy and is in kind of a rebuild. I can see both sides.

Gordon owner panicking, imo.

Gordon has now had 5 drug testing related issues in the past three and a half years, plus the speeding / weed thing. The huge ceiling is obvious, but his floor is never playing again if he can't / won't stop smoking weed. Hard to call cashing out before the suspension hits "panic" IMO. I certainly wouldn't give a 1st for him -- I don't think it's super likely that he can survive stage three testing moving forward.

I agree with all of this.

However I am still not selling him at this point or when his suspension is announced. We know his potential and I will take the big risk of burning a roster spot on him as long as the reward is he may get his act together. Sunk cost at this point the only way to recover is hold and hope.

If you can get a potential starting RB and a 1st for Gordon right now take it and run. I posted in the Gordon thread that Gordon will likely miss two seasons if he does get an indefinite suspension.

More risk here than people are realizing, not the least of which is tying up a roster spot for two years (unless you have a league that allows you to put suspended players on IR).

I don't think anyone was saying they aren't risking something. You could also burn 2 roster spots waiting for your potential starting RB and that 2015 pick to break/bust out.

Fantasy is all about risk management and Gordon is a huge risk maybe even to never play again but the reward is a talent you are very unlikely to find in many drafts

All those guys who dumped Manning after missing the year with a potentially career ending neck injury perhaps have some regret at this point. I don't want to be that guy with a stud WR. They just are not easy to acquire or find

 

[Adam Harstad]

I agree with all of this.


However I am still not selling him at this point or when his suspension is announced. We know his potential and I will take the big risk of burning a roster spot on him as long as the reward is he may get his act together. Sunk cost at this point the only way to recover is hold and hope.

Actually, "hold and hope" is a perfect example of the sunk cost fallacy. Basically, you're saying that you've already lost so much value by not trading him earlier that the smart course of action is to hold on and risk losing more value hoping for a rebound.

Now, in the long run, holding might well be the proper strategy. I'm just saying that holding simply because he lost so much value and you're hoping to recover it is a pretty textbook example of the sunk cost fallacy. What his value was three months ago is irrelevant- whether you hold him or sell him should be based strictly on what you think his value will be going forward.

 

[maxhyde]

I agree with all of this.


However I am still not selling him at this point or when his suspension is announced. We know his potential and I will take the big risk of burning a roster spot on him as long as the reward is he may get his act together. Sunk cost at this point the only way to recover is hold and hope.

Actually, "hold and hope" is a perfect example of the sunk cost fallacy. Basically, you're saying that you've already lost so much value by not trading him earlier that the smart course of action is to hold on and risk losing more value hoping for a rebound.

Now, in the long run, holding might well be the proper strategy. I'm just saying that holding simply because he lost so much value and you're hoping to recover it is a pretty textbook example of the sunk cost fallacy. What his value was three months ago is irrelevant- whether you hold him or sell him should be based strictly on what you think his value will be going forward.

I didn't lose any value...Gordon lost value. Or I lost the value I could have traded him for 3 months ago however you choose to look at it

I would rather risk holding the value of a top6 WR than dump him and try to find another elite player.

I only have Gordon on 2 teams...I traded for him while he was suspended last year and have owned him since he was a supp draft pick so I really don't have very much invested in him as far as assets. I feel have gotten more value out of him than I could have expected to this point so any return to the NFL is a bonus for me.

I suppose I 'lost' value not trading him away earlier this spring but that ship has sailed so selling now makes little sense unless you believe he will never get it together.

 

[maxhyde]

Anyway I am a believer he can correct. Whether he will ever be the same player again is another matter but he is worth holding for me as a potential elite player.

 

[kutta]

I agree with all of this.


However I am still not selling him at this point or when his suspension is announced. We know his potential and I will take the big risk of burning a roster spot on him as long as the reward is he may get his act together. Sunk cost at this point the only way to recover is hold and hope.

Actually, "hold and hope" is a perfect example of the sunk cost fallacy. Basically, you're saying that you've already lost so much value by not trading him earlier that the smart course of action is to hold on and risk losing more value hoping for a rebound.

Now, in the long run, holding might well be the proper strategy. I'm just saying that holding simply because he lost so much value and you're hoping to recover it is a pretty textbook example of the sunk cost fallacy. What his value was three months ago is irrelevant- whether you hold him or sell him should be based strictly on what you think his value will be going forward.

The problem is that we do not know what is value is going forward. We just don't. We can guess, but our information is very limited. So I don't think there is anything wrong with someone, at this point, saying they would rather "hold and hope" on Gordon than trade him for a song. We are all just pulling things out of our rear ends and tossing them into a windstorm with him right now anyway.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I agree with all of this.


However I am still not selling him at this point or when his suspension is announced. We know his potential and I will take the big risk of burning a roster spot on him as long as the reward is he may get his act together. Sunk cost at this point the only way to recover is hold and hope.

Actually, "hold and hope" is a perfect example of the sunk cost fallacy. Basically, you're saying that you've already lost so much value by not trading him earlier that the smart course of action is to hold on and risk losing more value hoping for a rebound.

Now, in the long run, holding might well be the proper strategy. I'm just saying that holding simply because he lost so much value and you're hoping to recover it is a pretty textbook example of the sunk cost fallacy. What his value was three months ago is irrelevant- whether you hold him or sell him should be based strictly on what you think his value will be going forward.

The problem is that we do not know what is value is going forward. We just don't. We can guess, but our information is very limited. So I don't think there is anything wrong with someone, at this point, saying they would rather "hold and hope" on Gordon than trade him for a song. We are all just pulling things out of our rear ends and tossing them into a windstorm with him right now anyway.

Right. I have no problem with "hold and hope" as a strategy. It's just a question of why you're holding and hoping. If you're holding and hoping because you think the EV of owning Josh Gordon is higher than the EV of whatever you could get for him (i.e. if you are holding because you think the likelihood he rebounds times his value if he rebounds is worth more than the offers you are receiving), that's great. If you're holding and hoping because he was worth a lot more three months ago and you're mad that you missed the window, (i.e. you're "trying to recover value"), that's not as great. That's the sunk cost fallacy at work.

 

[maxhyde]

Right. I have no problem with "hold and hope" as a strategy. It's just a question of why you're holding and hoping. If you're holding and hoping because you think the EV of owning Josh Gordon is higher than the EV of whatever you could get for him (i.e. if you are holding because you think the likelihood he rebounds times his value if he rebounds is worth more than the offers you are receiving), that's great. If you're holding and hoping because he was worth a lot more three months ago and you're mad that you missed the window, (i.e. you're "trying to recover value"), that's not as great. That's the sunk cost fallacy at work.

I want the elite WR capable of putting 20ppg. That is what I won't likely replace with a draft pick and potential #1RB

The "value" is really a non-issue as I wasn't even very interested in selling him when it was an elite WR price so exit price isn't as high on my list with this particular player.

I guess anyone who wanted to capitalize on selling an asset high they are pretty hosed as it will take years for his value to get back to "big 6 WR" prices if ever.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Right. I have no problem with "hold and hope" as a strategy. It's just a question of why you're holding and hoping. If you're holding and hoping because you think the EV of owning Josh Gordon is higher than the EV of whatever you could get for him (i.e. if you are holding because you think the likelihood he rebounds times his value if he rebounds is worth more than the offers you are receiving), that's great. If you're holding and hoping because he was worth a lot more three months ago and you're mad that you missed the window, (i.e. you're "trying to recover value"), that's not as great. That's the sunk cost fallacy at work.

I want the elite WR capable of putting 20ppg. That is what I won't likely replace with a draft pick and potential #1RB

The "value" is really a non-issue as I wasn't even very interested in selling him when it was an elite WR price so exit price isn't as high on my list with this particular player.

I guess anyone who wanted to capitalize on selling an asset high they are pretty hosed as it will take years for his value to get back to "big 6 WR" prices if ever.

I think this is the right approach. It's anti-fragility. You can devote a portion of your roster to safe players with reasonable floors. There are few assets with high ceilings that can be team changing. That's where I think a straight EV calculation is wrong. This isn't Las Vegas. Each lost bet isn't money lost to the casino; it just means you have to start somebody else. And most rosters have enough startable players. What are the chances either of the two picks improve your lineup vs. the chances Gordon does? Which players in the Adams, Benjamin, Hill, Mason, Latimer tier have much of a shot at becoming elite? None significantly so.

 

[steveski]

This just went down in my league and it blew my mind.

Team A gave up:

Jones, Julio ATL WR

Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR

Team B gave up:

Brown, Antonio PIT WR

Johnson, Storm JAC RB

Garoppolo, Jimmy NEP QB

Crowell, Isaiah CLE RB

Year 2015 Round 4 Draft Pick

Blackmon, Justin JAC WR

This is the first year of this league too. Our startup draft was just a couple weeks ago. Julio and Fitz for Brown and junk.

 

[Zyphros]

This just went down in my league and it blew my mind.

Team A gave up:

Jones, Julio ATL WR

Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR

Team B gave up:

Brown, Antonio PIT WR

Johnson, Storm JAC RB

Garoppolo, Jimmy NEP QB

Crowell, Isaiah CLE RB

Year 2015 Round 4 Draft Pick

Blackmon, Justin JAC WR

This is the first year of this league too. Our startup draft was just a couple weeks ago. Julio and Fitz for Brown and junk.

Just to play devils advocate, that is A LOT of upside that A is getting. I really like Storm, everyone knows Crowell is talented, Garoppolo could blossom in a couple years, Blackmon is elite when he's not in trouble, and Antonio is no slouch (especially in PPR where he outscored the AJ's/Marshall's/Dez's of the world, at least in my leagues of .5 PPR). I still take the Julio/Fitz side but I can see a reason for the other side as well.

 

[One More Rep]

This just went down in my league and it blew my mind.

Team A gave up:

Jones, Julio ATL WR

Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR

Team B gave up:

Brown, Antonio PIT WR

Johnson, Storm JAC RB

Garoppolo, Jimmy NEP QB

Crowell, Isaiah CLE RB

Year 2015 Round 4 Draft Pick

Blackmon, Justin JAC WR

This is the first year of this league too. Our startup draft was just a couple weeks ago. Julio and Fitz for Brown and junk.

Julio/Fitz easy for me

 

[jeaton6]

This just went down in my league and it blew my mind.

Team A gave up:

Jones, Julio ATL WR

Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR

Team B gave up:

Brown, Antonio PIT WR

Johnson, Storm JAC RB

Garoppolo, Jimmy NEP QB

Crowell, Isaiah CLE RB

Year 2015 Round 4 Draft Pick

Blackmon, Justin JAC WR

This is the first year of this league too. Our startup draft was just a couple weeks ago. Julio and Fitz for Brown and junk.

Just to play devils advocate, that is A LOT of upside that A is getting. I really like Storm, everyone knows Crowell is talented, Garoppolo could blossom in a couple years, Blackmon is elite when he's not in trouble, and Antonio is no slouch (especially in PPR where he outscored the AJ's/Marshall's/Dez's of the world, at least in my leagues of .5 PPR). I still take the Julio/Fitz side but I can see a reason for the other side as well.

Take out Fitz and replace the 4th with a 1st and it's even. Classic example of throwing a tier 2 player and a bunch of trash (developmental I agree) for a stud. It's a mid 1 and mid 5 for a mid 2, 2 12's, a 15, a WW QB and that 4th.

 

[Adam Harstad]

This just went down in my league and it blew my mind.

Team A gave up:

Jones, Julio ATL WR

Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR

Team B gave up:

Brown, Antonio PIT WR

Johnson, Storm JAC RB

Garoppolo, Jimmy NEP QB

Crowell, Isaiah CLE RB

Year 2015 Round 4 Draft Pick

Blackmon, Justin JAC WR

This is the first year of this league too. Our startup draft was just a couple weeks ago. Julio and Fitz for Brown and junk.

Just to play devils advocate, that is A LOT of upside that A is getting. I really like Storm, everyone knows Crowell is talented, Garoppolo could blossom in a couple years, Blackmon is elite when he's not in trouble, and Antonio is no slouch (especially in PPR where he outscored the AJ's/Marshall's/Dez's of the world, at least in my leagues of .5 PPR). I still take the Julio/Fitz side but I can see a reason for the other side as well.

It's crap upside, though. The startup was just a couple of weeks ago. I'm willing to bet that that trade amounts to a 1st round and a 4th round pick (Julio + Fitz) for a 2nd rounder (Brown) and a whole mess of guys drafted 15th or later.

There's "upside" like that all over the waiver wire, and it won't cost you your 1st round startup pick to get it.

 

[jeaton6]

Startup. Trade 2 weeks after draft. 12 team PPR.

Team A: Percy Harvin SEA WR

Team B: Beckham NTG WR, John Brown ARI WR

 

[renesauz]

Just went down in one of my leagues. Pretty standard PPR.

Josh Gordon

for

Tre Mason and a 2015 first (probably pretty late 9-12)

Seems like team sold Gordon pretty low, but he does have Stacy and is in kind of a rebuild. I can see both sides.

Gordon owner panicking, imo.

Gordon has now had 5 drug testing related issues in the past three and a half years, plus the speeding / weed thing. The huge ceiling is obvious, but his floor is never playing again if he can't / won't stop smoking weed. Hard to call cashing out before the suspension hits "panic" IMO. I certainly wouldn't give a 1st for him -- I don't think it's super likely that he can survive stage three testing moving forward.

This is my thought as well. Would easily take the Mason/1st side

 

[renesauz]

I agree with all of this.


However I am still not selling him at this point or when his suspension is announced. We know his potential and I will take the big risk of burning a roster spot on him as long as the reward is he may get his act together. Sunk cost at this point the only way to recover is hold and hope.

Actually, "hold and hope" is a perfect example of the sunk cost fallacy. Basically, you're saying that you've already lost so much value by not trading him earlier that the smart course of action is to hold on and risk losing more value hoping for a rebound.

Now, in the long run, holding might well be the proper strategy. I'm just saying that holding simply because he lost so much value and you're hoping to recover it is a pretty textbook example of the sunk cost fallacy. What his value was three months ago is irrelevant- whether you hold him or sell him should be based strictly on what you think his value will be going forward.

I didn't lose any value...Gordon lost value. Or I lost the value I could have traded him for 3 months ago however you choose to look at it

I would rather risk holding the value of a top6 WR than dump him and try to find another elite player.

I only have Gordon on 2 teams...I traded for him while he was suspended last year and have owned him since he was a supp draft pick so I really don't have very much invested in him as far as assets. I feel have gotten more value out of him than I could have expected to this point so any return to the NFL is a bonus for me.

I suppose I 'lost' value not trading him away earlier this spring but that ship has sailed so selling now makes little sense unless you believe he will never get it together.

You missed Adam's point entirely- getting a first and a prospect out of him is still VALUE- and many think he may never again be worth as much as he is NOW. The fact that he was worth more six months or a year ago is absolutely immaterial.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Startup. Trade 2 weeks after draft. 12 team PPR.

Team A: Percy Harvin SEA WR

Team B: Beckham NTG WR, John Brown ARI WR

Ugh. :X

If you don't mind, what picks were these guys drafted with?

 

[jeaton6]

Startup. Trade 2 weeks after draft. 12 team PPR.

Team A: Percy Harvin SEA WR

Team B: Beckham NTG WR, John Brown ARI WR

Ugh. :X

If you don't mind, what picks were these guys drafted with?

I know I know. Harvin at 3.4, Beckham at 8.5, John Brown at 21.8. Basically the guy reads something positive on a player (in this case that Brown could fill the Hilton role) and then immediately is willing to overpay.

 

[cstu]

Startup. Trade 2 weeks after draft. 12 team PPR.

Team A: Percy Harvin SEA WR

Team B: Beckham NTG WR, John Brown ARI WR

Ugh. :X

If you don't mind, what picks were these guys drafted with?

I know I know. Harvin at 3.4, Beckham at 8.5, John Brown at 21.8. Basically the guy reads something positive on a player (in this case that Brown could fill the Hilton role) and then immediately is willing to overpay.

I looked at it more as Harvin remorse.

 

[jeaton6]

Startup. Trade 2 weeks after draft. 12 team PPR.

Team A: Percy Harvin SEA WR

Team B: Beckham NTG WR, John Brown ARI WR

Ugh. :X

If you don't mind, what picks were these guys drafted with?

I know I know. Harvin at 3.4, Beckham at 8.5, John Brown at 21.8. Basically the guy reads something positive on a player (in this case that Brown could fill the Hilton role) and then immediately is willing to overpay.

I looked at more as Harvin remorse.

Not sure why. There hasn't really been any news either way that would cause you to go sour on him 2 weeks after the draft. Even if you have that's a pretty cheap price.

 

[cstu]

Startup. Trade 2 weeks after draft. 12 team PPR.

Team A: Percy Harvin SEA WR

Team B: Beckham NTG WR, John Brown ARI WR

Ugh. :X

If you don't mind, what picks were these guys drafted with?

I know I know. Harvin at 3.4, Beckham at 8.5, John Brown at 21.8. Basically the guy reads something positive on a player (in this case that Brown could fill the Hilton role) and then immediately is willing to overpay.

I looked at more as Harvin remorse.

Not sure why. There hasn't really been any news either way that would cause you to go sour on him 2 weeks after the draft. Even if you have that's a pretty cheap price.

It looks to me like he was sitting at 3.4 and thought Harvin was the best WR available, but after the draft realized how much injury risk he has. He took a hit in the short run but I think Harvin and ODB was pretty similar in ADP next year.

 

[jeaton6]

Startup. Trade 2 weeks after draft. 12 team PPR.

Team A: Percy Harvin SEA WR

Team B: Beckham NTG WR, John Brown ARI WR

Ugh. :X

If you don't mind, what picks were these guys drafted with?

I know I know. Harvin at 3.4, Beckham at 8.5, John Brown at 21.8. Basically the guy reads something positive on a player (in this case that Brown could fill the Hilton role) and then immediately is willing to overpay.

I looked at more as Harvin remorse.

Not sure why. There hasn't really been any news either way that would cause you to go sour on him 2 weeks after the draft. Even if you have that's a pretty cheap price.

It looks to me like he was sitting at 3.4 and thought Harvin was the best WR available, but after the draft realized how much injury risk he has. He took a hit in the short run but I think Harvin and ODB was pretty similar in ADP next

year.

If he's realizing the injury risk for the first time after the draft then he didn't do his homework and cost himself a lot of value. He passed on Watkins, Evans and Floyd at that spot.

 

[cstu]

Startup. Trade 2 weeks after draft. 12 team PPR.

Team A: Percy Harvin SEA WR

Team B: Beckham NTG WR, John Brown ARI WR

Ugh. :X

If you don't mind, what picks were these guys drafted with?

I know I know. Harvin at 3.4, Beckham at 8.5, John Brown at 21.8. Basically the guy reads something positive on a player (in this case that Brown could fill the Hilton role) and then immediately is willing to overpay.

I looked at more as Harvin remorse.

Not sure why. There hasn't really been any news either way that would cause you to go sour on him 2 weeks after the draft. Even if you have that's a pretty cheap price.

It looks to me like he was sitting at 3.4 and thought Harvin was the best WR available, but after the draft realized how much injury risk he has. He took a hit in the short run but I think Harvin and ODB was pretty similar in ADP next

year.

If he's realizing the injury risk for the first time after the draft then he didn't do his homework and cost himself a lot of value. He passed on Watkins, Evans and Floyd at that spot.

Oof.

 

[cloppbeast]

This just went down in my league and it blew my mind.

Team A gave up:

Jones, Julio ATL WR

Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR

Team B gave up:

Brown, Antonio PIT WR

Johnson, Storm JAC RB

Garoppolo, Jimmy NEP QB

Crowell, Isaiah CLE RB

Year 2015 Round 4 Draft Pick

Blackmon, Justin JAC WR

This is the first year of this league too. Our startup draft was just a couple weeks ago. Julio and Fitz for Brown and junk.

Team A got Garoppolo pretty cheap, I'd say.

 

[maxhyde]

This just went down in my league and it blew my mind.

Team A gave up:

Jones, Julio ATL WR

Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR

Team B gave up:

Brown, Antonio PIT WR

Johnson, Storm JAC RB

Garoppolo, Jimmy NEP QB

Crowell, Isaiah CLE RB

Year 2015 Round 4 Draft Pick

Blackmon, Justin JAC WR

This is the first year of this league too. Our startup draft was just a couple weeks ago. Julio and Fitz for Brown and junk.

Team A got Garoppolo pretty cheap, I'd say.

 

[Eminence]

Gave:

Cordarelle Patterson (3 years)

Marvin Jones (1 year)

Got:

Andre Johnson (1 - 4 years, my choice)
Terrance Williams (1 year)

 

[maxhyde]

Gave:

Cordarelle Patterson (3 years)

Marvin Jones (1 year)

Got:

Andre Johnson (1 - 4 years, my choice)

Terrance Williams (1 year)

Guess if you are win now that might make sense but I like Patterson on this deal.

Think Jones is pretty much equal to Williams as well

 

[Bamac]

Gave:

Cordarelle Patterson (3 years)

Marvin Jones (1 year)

Got:

Andre Johnson (1 - 4 years, my choice)

Terrance Williams (1 year)

Guess if you are win now that might make sense but I like Patterson on this deal.Think Jones is pretty much equal to Williams as well

If those contracts are firm limits, I'd take 2 years of Andre for 3 of Patterson.

 

[Eminence]

Gave:

Cordarelle Patterson (3 years)

Marvin Jones (1 year)

Got:

Andre Johnson (1 - 4 years, my choice)

Terrance Williams (1 year)

Guess if you are win now that might make sense but I like Patterson on this deal.

Think Jones is pretty much equal to Williams as well

The thing is, this is .5PPR so as long as Andre Johnson continues to catch more balls than Patterson he should outproduce him. Also, here's a little tidbit to make the trade so much sweeter:

12 Team / .5PPR

David Wilson

for

Cordarrelle Patterson

I turned David Wilson into Andre Johnson.

 

[Denver724]

Startup. Trade 2 weeks after draft. 12 team PPR.

Team A: Percy Harvin SEA WR

Team B: Beckham NTG WR, John Brown ARI WR

Ugh. :X

If you don't mind, what picks were these guys drafted with?

I know I know. Harvin at 3.4, Beckham at 8.5, John Brown at 21.8. Basically the guy reads something positive on a player (in this case that Brown could fill the Hilton role) and then immediately is willing to overpay.

I looked at more as Harvin remorse.

Not sure why. There hasn't really been any news either way that would cause you to go sour on him 2 weeks after the draft. Even if you have that's a pretty cheap price.

It looks to me like he was sitting at 3.4 and thought Harvin was the best WR available, but after the draft realized how much injury risk he has. He took a hit in the short run but I think Harvin and ODB was pretty similar in ADP next

year.

If he's realizing the injury risk for the first time after the draft then he didn't do his homework and cost himself a lot of value. He passed on Watkins, Evans and Floyd at that spot.

The latest devy start-up (2 QB/TE premium league) I chose Harvin at 7.09. When he was still there that late I was wondering what I was missing. Below is how the WR's went in the first 9 rounds.

1.06 Green, A.J. CIN WR 1.09 Johnson, Calvin DET WR 1.1 Bryant, Dez DAL WR 1.12 Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR 2.08 Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR 2.09 Jones, Julio ATL WR 2.11 Brown, Antonio PIT WR 3.08 Allen, Keenan SDC WR 3.09 Cobb, Randall GBP WR 3.11 Watkins, Sammy BUF WR ® 3.12 Floyd, Michael ARI WR 4.01 Evans, Mike TBB WR ® 4.02 Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR 4.03 Marshall, Brandon CHI WR 4.11 Nelson, Jordy GBP WR 5.05 Cruz, Victor NYG WR 6.07 Garcon, Pierre WAS WR 6.08 Smith, Torrey BAL WR 6.09 Cooks, Brandin NOS WR ® 6.1 Crabtree, Michael SFO WR 6.11 Matthews, Jordan PHI WR ® 7.02 Robinson, Allen JAC WR ® 7.05 Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR 7.06 Moncrief, Donte IND WR ® 7.07 Jackson, DeSean WAS WR 7.08 Adams, Davante GBP WR ® 7.09 Harvin, Percy SEA WR 7.12 Decker, Eric NYJ WR 8.01 Hunter, Justin TEN WR 8.02 Gordon, Josh CLE WR 8.03 Latimer, Cody DEN WR ® 8.04 Beckham, Odell NYG WR ® 8.06 Jackson, Vincent TBB WR 8.12 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 9.01 Hilton, T.Y. IND WR 9.03 Lee, Marqise JAC WR ® 9.1 Randle, Rueben NYG WR 9.11 Wright, Kendall TEN WR 9.12 Wallace, Mike MIA WR

 

[tdmills]

Startup. Trade 2 weeks after draft. 12 team PPR.

Team A: Percy Harvin SEA WR

Team B: Beckham NTG WR, John Brown ARI WR

Ugh. :X

If you don't mind, what picks were these guys drafted with?

I know I know. Harvin at 3.4, Beckham at 8.5, John Brown at 21.8. Basically the guy reads something positive on a player (in this case that Brown could fill the Hilton role) and then immediately is willing to overpay.

I looked at more as Harvin remorse.

Not sure why. There hasn't really been any news either way that would cause you to go sour on him 2 weeks after the draft. Even if you have that's a pretty cheap price.

It looks to me like he was sitting at 3.4 and thought Harvin was the best WR available, but after the draft realized how much injury risk he has. He took a hit in the short run but I think Harvin and ODB was pretty similar in ADP next

year.

If he's realizing the injury risk for the first time after the draft then he didn't do his homework and cost himself a lot of value. He passed on Watkins, Evans and Floyd at that spot.

The latest devy start-up (2 QB/TE premium league) I chose Harvin at 7.09. When he was still there that late I was wondering what I was missing. Below is how the WR's went in the first 9 rounds.1.06 Green, A.J. CIN WR 1.09 Johnson, Calvin DET WR 1.1 Bryant, Dez DAL WR 1.12 Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR 2.08 Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR 2.09 Jones, Julio ATL WR 2.11 Brown, Antonio PIT WR 3.08 Allen, Keenan SDC WR 3.09 Cobb, Randall GBP WR 3.11 Watkins, Sammy BUF WR ® 3.12 Floyd, Michael ARI WR 4.01 Evans, Mike TBB WR ® 4.02 Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR 4.03 Marshall, Brandon CHI WR 4.11 Nelson, Jordy GBP WR 5.05 Cruz, Victor NYG WR 6.07 Garcon, Pierre WAS WR 6.08 Smith, Torrey BAL WR 6.09 Cooks, Brandin NOS WR ® 6.1 Crabtree, Michael SFO WR 6.11 Matthews, Jordan PHI WR ® 7.02 Robinson, Allen JAC WR ® 7.05 Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR 7.06 Moncrief, Donte IND WR ® 7.07 Jackson, DeSean WAS WR 7.08 Adams, Davante GBP WR ® 7.09 Harvin, Percy SEA WR 7.12 Decker, Eric NYJ WR 8.01 Hunter, Justin TEN WR 8.02 Gordon, Josh CLE WR 8.03 Latimer, Cody DEN WR ® 8.04 Beckham, Odell NYG WR ® 8.06 Jackson, Vincent TBB WR 8.12 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 9.01 Hilton, T.Y. IND WR 9.03 Lee, Marqise JAC WR ® 9.1 Randle, Rueben NYG WR 9.11 Wright, Kendall TEN WR 9.12 Wallace, Mike MIA WR

Lee 2 full rounds behind A. Robinson...I'll take Lee easily at that value. The pendulum has swung too far the other way at this point

 

[maxhyde]

Startup. Trade 2 weeks after draft. 12 team PPR.

Team A: Percy Harvin SEA WR

Team B: Beckham NTG WR, John Brown ARI WR

Ugh. :X

If you don't mind, what picks were these guys drafted with?

I know I know. Harvin at 3.4, Beckham at 8.5, John Brown at 21.8. Basically the guy reads something positive on a player (in this case that Brown could fill the Hilton role) and then immediately is willing to overpay.

I looked at more as Harvin remorse.

Not sure why. There hasn't really been any news either way that would cause you to go sour on him 2 weeks after the draft. Even if you have that's a pretty cheap price.

It looks to me like he was sitting at 3.4 and thought Harvin was the best WR available, but after the draft realized how much injury risk he has. He took a hit in the short run but I think Harvin and ODB was pretty similar in ADP next

year.

If he's realizing the injury risk for the first time after the draft then he didn't do his homework and cost himself a lot of value. He passed on Watkins, Evans and Floyd at that spot.

The latest devy start-up (2 QB/TE premium league) I chose Harvin at 7.09. When he was still there that late I was wondering what I was missing. Below is how the WR's went in the first 9 rounds.1.06 Green, A.J. CIN WR 1.09 Johnson, Calvin DET WR 1.1 Bryant, Dez DAL WR 1.12 Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR 2.08 Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR 2.09 Jones, Julio ATL WR 2.11 Brown, Antonio PIT WR 3.08 Allen, Keenan SDC WR 3.09 Cobb, Randall GBP WR 3.11 Watkins, Sammy BUF WR ® 3.12 Floyd, Michael ARI WR 4.01 Evans, Mike TBB WR ® 4.02 Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR 4.03 Marshall, Brandon CHI WR 4.11 Nelson, Jordy GBP WR 5.05 Cruz, Victor NYG WR 6.07 Garcon, Pierre WAS WR 6.08 Smith, Torrey BAL WR 6.09 Cooks, Brandin NOS WR ® 6.1 Crabtree, Michael SFO WR 6.11 Matthews, Jordan PHI WR ® 7.02 Robinson, Allen JAC WR ® 7.05 Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR 7.06 Moncrief, Donte IND WR ® 7.07 Jackson, DeSean WAS WR 7.08 Adams, Davante GBP WR ® 7.09 Harvin, Percy SEA WR 7.12 Decker, Eric NYJ WR 8.01 Hunter, Justin TEN WR 8.02 Gordon, Josh CLE WR 8.03 Latimer, Cody DEN WR ® 8.04 Beckham, Odell NYG WR ® 8.06 Jackson, Vincent TBB WR 8.12 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 9.01 Hilton, T.Y. IND WR 9.03 Lee, Marqise JAC WR ® 9.1 Randle, Rueben NYG WR 9.11 Wright, Kendall TEN WR 9.12 Wallace, Mike MIA WR

Lee 2 full rounds behind A. Robinson...I'll take Lee easily at that value. The pendulum has swung too far the other way at this point

Agreed...and way too cheap for Harvin in the deal and I like OBJ alot

 

[Denver724]

Startup. Trade 2 weeks after draft. 12 team PPR.

Team A: Percy Harvin SEA WR

Team B: Beckham NTG WR, John Brown ARI WR

Ugh. :X

If you don't mind, what picks were these guys drafted with?

I know I know. Harvin at 3.4, Beckham at 8.5, John Brown at 21.8. Basically the guy reads something positive on a player (in this case that Brown could fill the Hilton role) and then immediately is willing to overpay.

I looked at more as Harvin remorse.

Not sure why. There hasn't really been any news either way that would cause you to go sour on him 2 weeks after the draft. Even if you have that's a pretty cheap price.

It looks to me like he was sitting at 3.4 and thought Harvin was the best WR available, but after the draft realized how much injury risk he has. He took a hit in the short run but I think Harvin and ODB was pretty similar in ADP next

year.

If he's realizing the injury risk for the first time after the draft then he didn't do his homework and cost himself a lot of value. He passed on Watkins, Evans and Floyd at that spot.

The latest devy start-up (2 QB/TE premium league) I chose Harvin at 7.09. When he was still there that late I was wondering what I was missing. Below is how the WR's went in the first 9 rounds.1.06 Green, A.J. CIN WR 1.09 Johnson, Calvin DET WR 1.1 Bryant, Dez DAL WR 1.12 Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR 2.08 Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR 2.09 Jones, Julio ATL WR 2.11 Brown, Antonio PIT WR 3.08 Allen, Keenan SDC WR 3.09 Cobb, Randall GBP WR 3.11 Watkins, Sammy BUF WR ® 3.12 Floyd, Michael ARI WR 4.01 Evans, Mike TBB WR ® 4.02 Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR 4.03 Marshall, Brandon CHI WR 4.11 Nelson, Jordy GBP WR 5.05 Cruz, Victor NYG WR 6.07 Garcon, Pierre WAS WR 6.08 Smith, Torrey BAL WR 6.09 Cooks, Brandin NOS WR ® 6.1 Crabtree, Michael SFO WR 6.11 Matthews, Jordan PHI WR ® 7.02 Robinson, Allen JAC WR ® 7.05 Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR 7.06 Moncrief, Donte IND WR ® 7.07 Jackson, DeSean WAS WR 7.08 Adams, Davante GBP WR ® 7.09 Harvin, Percy SEA WR 7.12 Decker, Eric NYJ WR 8.01 Hunter, Justin TEN WR 8.02 Gordon, Josh CLE WR 8.03 Latimer, Cody DEN WR ® 8.04 Beckham, Odell NYG WR ® 8.06 Jackson, Vincent TBB WR 8.12 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 9.01 Hilton, T.Y. IND WR 9.03 Lee, Marqise JAC WR ® 9.1 Randle, Rueben NYG WR 9.11 Wright, Kendall TEN WR 9.12 Wallace, Mike MIA WR

Lee 2 full rounds behind A. Robinson...I'll take Lee easily at that value. The pendulum has swung too far the other way at this point

Agreed...and way too cheap for Harvin in the deal and I like OBJ alot

Yep...I took OBJ at 8.04 as well. He and Harvin back-to-back. And Cobb at 3.09 (I think the chance of him leaving GB is impacting his value).

 

[Adam Harstad]

It looks to me like he was sitting at 3.4 and thought Harvin was the best WR available, but after the draft realized how much injury risk he has. He took a hit in the short run but I think Harvin and ODB was pretty similar in ADP next year.

Not impossible, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it.

 

[jeaton6]

It looks to me like he was sitting at 3.4 and thought Harvin was the best WR available, but after the draft realized how much injury risk he has. He took a hit in the short run but I think Harvin and ODB was pretty similar in ADP next year.

Not impossible, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it.

Agreed. Harvin would have to get hurt again and/or not show similar productivity/usage as in Minny and ODB would need to produce in the 50/700/5 range.

 

[Evil G]

In trying to be as polite and constructive as possible, I think this awesome thread is even better when we don't debate the crap out of single trade.

Of course, a few insightful back and forth posts really add to the value, but after three of four, we need another trade as opposed to continued, deeper analysis and speculation.

For those not involved in such debate, it creates diminishing returns for the king of off-season threads.

12 Team PPR, SuperFlex, TE Premium

Team R gives: Da'Rick Rogers, 2015 2nd (mid)

Team B gives: Golden Tate

 

[jeaton6]

In trying to be as polite and constructive as possible, I think this awesome thread is even better when we don't debate the crap out of single trade.

Of course, a few insightful back and forth posts really add to the value, but after three of four, we need another trade as opposed to continued, deeper analysis and speculation.

For those not involved in such debate, it creates diminishing returns for the king of off-season threads.

12 Team PPR, SuperFlex, TE Premium

Team R gives: Da'Rick Rogers, 2015 2nd (mid)

Team B gives: Golden Tate

Not knowing team needs/goals I'd say Team B by a good deal. Startup wise Tate going in 7/8 and Rogers 14-16. I'd value the 2015 2nd in the 15-17 round range as well. Tate young and now has chance to line up next to the best. A lot of mouths to feed in Detroit but I like Tates chances to continue to improve again this year and hit around 70/1000/6 mark. Rodgers buried on DC and while he's clearly the most talented in the deal we have no idea whether he will really get an opportunity. We all know Montcrief drafting wasn't a positive thing for his value.