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*** OFFICIAL *** 13/14 Off-Season Dynasty Trade Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Concept Coop
- Start date
beef
Footballguy
Yeah. I'll take wright.
beef
Footballguy
Marco is way better than any rb in this draft. I'll take him over the 3rd wr.
squistion
Footballguy
I didn't have an official list, per se, but rather in the RB25+ ballpark because I would never pay starting RB1 or RB2 prices for him. And who said my criteria was points scored next season? We are talking dynasty, right?
I honestly think TRich is crap and have had him as a #3 RB only because I still do own him in one league and maybe everything I saw last year was some sort of distortion from my imagination. That said...if you want a list that adds up to 24 RBs I would rather have over TRich I would take the first 15 from the DFL Jan mocks http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/rankings/rb-rankings/ plus Rice, Bush, Michael, Lattimore, Miller, Tate, Ball, Chris Johnson, Ellington (and with Ingram and DMC be given honorable mention).
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az_prof
Footballguy
Let's not forget Donald Brown! He outscored him this year and I wouldn't be surprised to see him back in Indy as the featured back next year ahead of TCrap.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Because Murray's value is riding high right now. That can quickly change with another injury as everyone remembers why he was underrated going into the season to begin with. One of the top 3 WR's (just for arguments sake, not including any highly drafted RB's) from this year could easily be worth more than Murray a year from now, or sooner. Look at Patterson and Allen.
loose circuits
Footballguy
12 team ppr 12x30 (35 during off-season)
Traded a 2015 3rd and 4.03 for James Jones
Traded 4.01, 4.02, and 4.07 for J. Finley
I have almost the whole 5th round and a decent team so I went with some vets that might help rather than try to trade picks individually
Traded a 2015 3rd and 4.03 for James Jones
Traded 4.01, 4.02, and 4.07 for J. Finley
I have almost the whole 5th round and a decent team so I went with some vets that might help rather than try to trade picks individually
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
Agree, or that WR can totally bust and be worthless in a year.
What I am saying is, right NOW, Murray to me is CLEARLY worth more. So if you want o rebuild fine, just get more than pick 3 alone. I would imagine in 99% of leagues you can.
In fact, I would bet money that in the league where this deal went down, the guy dealing Murray probably didnt shop around much, if at all.
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
You may be right. I could just see a rebuilding owner wanting to get out from under Murray as soon as possible. He's a volatile asset to hold because one injury kills his stock as people think of him how they did before this season.
EBF
Footballguy
What is so great about Murray? He obviously has some talent and his career YPC is impressive. On the other hand, he's never been able to stay healthy for a whole season with a career high 217 carries after three years. There's some chance that he could finally put together a big season at some point, but he seems like exactly the kind of marginal veteran that makes sense to move for a premium pick that could net you a legitimate top player. I think there are several rookie RBs who will have a chance to leapfrog him next season on dynasty boards ala Bell/Lacy if given the opportunity to start elsewhere.
In general, I think people who are selectively aggressive with this rookie RB class will be rewarded in dynasty leagues, as there's a lot of mediocrity out there on the veteran landscape right now with all the old stars fading out and so many of the young guys looking average. There's not much separating a guy like Carlos Hyde or Jeremy Hill from being viewed as a top 5-6 dynasty RB in another 12 months.
In general, I think people who are selectively aggressive with this rookie RB class will be rewarded in dynasty leagues, as there's a lot of mediocrity out there on the veteran landscape right now with all the old stars fading out and so many of the young guys looking average. There's not much separating a guy like Carlos Hyde or Jeremy Hill from being viewed as a top 5-6 dynasty RB in another 12 months.
loose circuits
Footballguy
the problem that I see is that the 2015 class looks to be much deeper than even this class at RB. That's going to create some interesting position battles in 14 months. Who can you trust to keep their jobs?Also, didn't Jerry Jones say he's looking at getting a new feature back last year while Murray was injured? Does he stick to what he said or was Murray's end of year good enough?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Again that is fine, but that is a low low selling price for Murray.
Also not sure I agree that one injury kills his stock THAT much more than any other RB.
And, it's February. There is no way I can see anyone not being able to get more than just pick 3 in a league
loose circuits
Footballguy
Did you own him last year when he was injured? He wouldn't even net a 1st round pick. Most people feel Murray is made of glass. He's been injured every year since college
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I WISH people that owned Murray in my leagues thought ANY of this in my leagues, and I would gladly snatch him up. Unfortunately they don't.
I did deal Murray in one league however:
Gave Murray and Larry Fitzgerald
got Harvin, Julius Thomas, and a 2015 1st
EVen if you cancel out Harvin and Fitz, I would think Julius Thomas and a 2015 1st is more of what you should look for. If a rebuild, then a 1st like pick 4 or 5 and a future 1sts.
Pick 3 straight up just seems light.
And what is so great about Murray? He produces when he plays, plus he also catches passes which is obvioulsy good for PPR. No major injuries also.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Yes I owned him last year. I happily traded for him before last year and it served me well.
I think playing a full 16 games is pretty overrated anyway. I will take 13-14 as long as the guy is scoring well.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Agreed. You just won't see the hige benefit here for a little while. Luck is a stud for REAL, neither of the other guys are.
as a Murray owner in multiple dynasty leagues, i wouldn't take just a 1.03 for him. He is a solid all around RB who catches passes and hypothetically get GL touches, too
he may not have put together a "big season" by some criteria, but he finished 6th in .75 and 1.0 ppr (and 0 games <10 pts in ppr). Sure he missed two games, but averaged 18.5 in games he played.
DAL may not run enough for him to ever be a 250+ carries, but with PPR, he is a solid RB1 with no real competition or threat currently on the roster. DAL has so many other holes, they are likely not to spend a high pick on another RB or be able to spend a lot in Free Agency.
The key will be if he gets locked up before the season (doubful with their cap situation), so he will be motivated
he may not have put together a "big season" by some criteria, but he finished 6th in .75 and 1.0 ppr (and 0 games <10 pts in ppr). Sure he missed two games, but averaged 18.5 in games he played.
DAL may not run enough for him to ever be a 250+ carries, but with PPR, he is a solid RB1 with no real competition or threat currently on the roster. DAL has so many other holes, they are likely not to spend a high pick on another RB or be able to spend a lot in Free Agency.
The key will be if he gets locked up before the season (doubful with their cap situation), so he will be motivated
coolnerd
Footballguy
Murray has shown that he actually scores points pretty much week-in week-out when he is on the field. I paid 1.03 for him last off season (when he was lesser regarded). In Hyper (with missing games) he was RB6 overall and RB4 on PPR game basis. He already has had the season that you are hoping to have from whoever you are drafting at 1.03. Not perfect, but far from just some guy.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
If that is the street price on Murray it feels a bit high, but I can see both sides of this argument.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I am trying to trade for him now in a league from a guy who is in a total rebuild who has basically no chance of competing this year.
Already offered pick 8 this year and a 2015 1st (from a team who is borderline playoff).
Was turned down.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
I like both sides. Luck has more certainty, but Fowles has some serious upside in that offense. Ball is a bonus.
EBF
Footballguy
It's interesting reading these threads and seeing different perspectives on the values of players and picks. There are some clear positives with Murray. When he's healthy, he puts up pretty nice ppg. He can break long runs and catch the ball. You know that if by some miracle he could ever get 300+ touches in a season, he'd probably put up very strong FF stats.
On the other hand, he has a long injury history dating back to college. Even when he was a draft prospect he was cited as a guy with major durability problems. So far he has avoid the big knocks like the ACL, Achilles, or leg breaks, but he seems to get dinged very frequently. At this point I'm guessing that's more of an innate part of who he is than a "luck" or random chance thing. He's missed 23% of all possible games in the NFL so far. And that's coming off the healthiest season of his career.
There are plenty of other negatives. He's a free agent after this season. Will he re-sign with Dallas? Will he go elsewhere? I would say there's a good chance that he'll be a prominent piece of the offense wherever he plays in 2015, but he's not locked in with the security of some other options. He's also 26 years old. That's not a bad age if you're strictly looking at the remaining utility on the field, but it means his trade value will steadily decline over the next couple years. In contrast, if you hit with a rookie back from the 2014 draft, you're looking at several years until he hits the same age. So you're sacrificing some upside and flexibility there.
If I had more faith in his durability I'd probably say he's decent value for the 1.03, but since I think he's probably incapable of holding up under a starter workload, I'd rather cash him in for a fresher asset of comparable value. I actually have the 1.03 in several leagues this year and I wouldn't trade it for Murray. My feeling is that if I needed a RB, whichever RB I settled on there would have a good chance of surpassing his value. Maybe I'm selling him short on the heels of a top 10 RB season, but maybe this is also the last chance to cash out while he's still viewed as a dynasty centerpiece by some.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I wish you were in my league, we would have a deal, lol................. 
EBF
Footballguy
Also, you really see in these discussions how different people approach their decisions and how their personalities and tendencies dictate which type of risk they feel more comfortable with. If you have a fear of uncertainty and you just want to get something concrete and useful, I suspect you're going to come down on the Murray side of the debate. If you have a fascination with upside and potential, you're probably going to take the pick. I thought the same thing a page or two back when I saw somebody traded the 1.01 for Forte. A guy who thinks, "I could get the next Adrian Peterson with this pick" probably isn't going to make that trade. A guy who thinks, "This year's 1.01 could flop just like Trent Richardson" will probably a lot more tempted by that proposition.
Obviously both sides have merit. The risk-averse guys are going to miss out on a lot of the major busts by not paying a premium for unproven talent. They're also going to be the type of guys who trade 2011 Julio Jones for 2011 Larry Fitzgerald, etc. The key is to get your evaluations right, whether it's with the veteran or the rookie. Personally, I don't like Murray enough to even think about him for that high of a pick. He came in at RB18 on my latest dynasty RB rankings, which probably makes me a pretty big Murray hater.
Obviously both sides have merit. The risk-averse guys are going to miss out on a lot of the major busts by not paying a premium for unproven talent. They're also going to be the type of guys who trade 2011 Julio Jones for 2011 Larry Fitzgerald, etc. The key is to get your evaluations right, whether it's with the veteran or the rookie. Personally, I don't like Murray enough to even think about him for that high of a pick. He came in at RB18 on my latest dynasty RB rankings, which probably makes me a pretty big Murray hater.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Yep, lol.
I think his injuries are important, but overblown. After all it was Murray scoring a lot when it counted this year while guys like Peterson and others were doing nothing.
WHen Murray plays, he scores. Good YPC, gets goaline carries, and catches passes at a good rate.
If you get unlucky and he is hurt for the fantasy playoffs, oh well. If not, you got yourself a guy who scores points. 26 puts him at about 4 more good years which is nice for a RB, and he is coming off a pretty healthy year. MIssing 2 games for me in the middle of the year is really not concering for me at all.
PLus, I dont just view him as a good FANTASY RB. He is also an actual good NFL RB.
And it is not like I am saying he is worth a ton more than pick 3, but I do think he is obviously the pick if I had to choose between the two (not taking into consideration salary or contract years for leagues).
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ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Gio/Bell/Lacy/and in some peoples minds Ball are all ranked higher than Murray by most.
This years RB class is very similar in quality of RB's. There will be 3-5 going in the 2nd - early 3rd just like last year and there are a bunch of starting RB spots out there.
I'll take the 21-23 year old solid rookie prospect over the 26 year old injury prone Murray all day. If Murray gets hurt and misses 4 or so games this season his value will plummet going into 2015 as a 27 year old who can't stay healthy.
I know people think the solid rookie RB is riskier, but value wise i think they are a lot less risky as even if they don't come out of the gates strong they will still hold big value going into next year. Murray's value could plummet pretty badly.
This years RB class is very similar in quality of RB's. There will be 3-5 going in the 2nd - early 3rd just like last year and there are a bunch of starting RB spots out there.
I'll take the 21-23 year old solid rookie prospect over the 26 year old injury prone Murray all day. If Murray gets hurt and misses 4 or so games this season his value will plummet going into 2015 as a 27 year old who can't stay healthy.
I know people think the solid rookie RB is riskier, but value wise i think they are a lot less risky as even if they don't come out of the gates strong they will still hold big value going into next year. Murray's value could plummet pretty badly.
. Murray's value could plummet pretty badly.
"could"?
sure since it is impossible to prove a negative, or more specifically, it is impossible to prove something can't happen given an unlimited time line
i can totally see a rebuilding team preferring the 1.03, i can see a team that is deep at RB making the same trade. But if you are a contending team and need RB1 production, i don't think you will find it with the 1.03... but it "could" happen. I would rather take Murray production/VBD in hand. YMMV
"could"?
sure since it is impossible to prove a negative, or more specifically, it is impossible to prove something can't happen given an unlimited time line
i can totally see a rebuilding team preferring the 1.03, i can see a team that is deep at RB making the same trade. But if you are a contending team and need RB1 production, i don't think you will find it with the 1.03... but it "could" happen. I would rather take Murray production/VBD in hand. YMMV
One More Rep
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
And if Decker leaves Denver is this still your opinion on this one, just curious.
This is one that to me is a nice score for the person trading away Decker if he does leave. If not, it is still pretty close.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Depends where he goes IMO. Carolina or other teams with a very good QB and a hole at WR and I'll take Decker.
If he goes home to Minnesota (unlikely), then this was a great deal for Harvin.
FUBAR
Footballguy
FWIW, in the WSL mocks he was the RB28 and 29 taken.
While that's redraft, it seems about right in dynasty - bump him ahead of Gore, MJD, SJax, maybe Chris Johnson and Foster ; but behind Hyde, Mason, Sankey, Seastrunk, Michael and Lattimore
PPR may actually help his value relative to other RBs.
Louche
Footballguy
I find this trade quite interesting. A risk averse owner will likely go with Luck, but a gambler would likely go with Foles/Ball. It could be argued that the team trading away Foles/Ball are selling them low since I'm confident that Foles' market value will grow from now until August, and I find it highly likely that Ball will be the starting RB for Denver which will cause his value to explode over the next few months - although there is of course the apparent risk there that his value will be severely hurt if that does not happen. Foles is a top 10 dynasty QB at the moment in most rankings, but I don't think most people perceive him as that just yet. I expect that high ranking to establish itself over the course of this offseason. So in a way, if I was a Foles owner, I would wait a few months before trading him away, but on the other hand Luck is a top 3 dynasty QB along with Newton and Rodgers and whenever you can do a two for one deal to get one of those top players you kind of have to jump on it.
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One More Rep
Footballguy
I would prefer he stay in Denver but either way I would take my chances with Decker/2015 1st. I do not want to deal with Harvin. If I did obtain Harvin I would look to deal him right away
Evil G
Footballguy
12 Team PPR, QRRWWTKD + Flex + Superflex, TE Premium (this is a mirror league to the one earlier in the thread - I run three of these)
Interestingly, another deal involving Shady. Across the three leagues, he's moved twice in three days. There is some Ownership overlap between the leagues, and I am thinking there has been a ton of cross talk, inducing a subsequent deal. Not involved.
Team P gives: McCoy, Olsen, Amendola
Team E gives: Ellington, Rudolph, DMC, Foles, 4.04
Interestingly, another deal involving Shady. Across the three leagues, he's moved twice in three days. There is some Ownership overlap between the leagues, and I am thinking there has been a ton of cross talk, inducing a subsequent deal. Not involved.
Team P gives: McCoy, Olsen, Amendola
Team E gives: Ellington, Rudolph, DMC, Foles, 4.04
Think I still take McCoy.
Foles did great but I am not ready to vault him into a top 6-8QB spot yet. Too many solid proven guys I would put ahead of him.
Risky move for the McCoy owner
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Foles might by gold in a Superflex, though. Even if there's some risk.
I own Charles in a Superflex and I might move him straight up for Foles. Decision-making is totally different in a league like that.
False Start
Footballguy
Decker may go elsewhere, but to a team that has a good QB. He will have a pretty good choice on where to go and I heard some people say he wants to be a TV star (Who doesn't in the NFL?) and has to go to New York to do that. He is in Denver now and doing pretty well there so he can go anywhere and be on TV. But he will still put up great numbers as a #1 on another team as he did as a #2/3 option in Denver. A lot of #1 WRs do well who do not have Manning throwing to him.
Pittsburgh, New England, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Baltimore, NY Jets, Carolina, St. Louis, Detroit, NY Giants, Oakland, Buffalo, Philadelphia and Denver if Decker leaves all need WRs this coming season in the form as a high priority. I doubt he will settle for a crappy QB after having Manning and I doubt he will go to a crappy team over one that has a shot at the Super Bowl. So that eliminates Jets, St. Louis, Oakland, Buffalo. Lets take away the smaller cities that have no major TV scope like Indy, KC, Carolina and Baltimore. That leaves teams like Pittsburgh, NE, Detroit, Giants, Philly and Denver. Denver stays just because it is his current team. That group there would still make me value Decker the exact same as I do now.
Lets take it a step further and say he will not go to Detroit, New York, Pitt or Philly because he will not be a #1 WR, So that leaves Denver and New England both willing to pay him the most and the best situations. Welker Drama 2.0? I think he stays in Denver and we know what that does to his value. If he stays in Denver people will be paying a lot more than they are willing to pay now if he does land somewhere else the amount of teams that need a WR are teams that are pretty good with good QBs.
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I will agree but if I were trading a #1 or #2 RB I would want a QB I knew was going to be a top option even an older guy like Brees
I would rather chase a Ryan/Stafford/Kaep/RG3/Wilson type than Foles. He might be gold but he might not be either...I know Charles and Shady are gold so unless it is a start 0 RB league I need at least one to start
Just me though and I likely just haven't bought into Foles like the rest of the community.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
In a Superflex league you aren't even approaching any of those QB's with any RB1. Not from a good owner.
BuckeyeChaos
Footballguy
16 team IDP, start 2 DE 2-4 WR 1/2 ppr
give Charles Johnson and 3rd 2015
get Wes Welker
give Charles Johnson and 3rd 2015
get Wes Welker
FUBAR
Footballguy
Panther or Brown? presume Panther, but either way give me Wes unless I'm in total rebuild or scoring for DEs is greater than in my IDP leagues.
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