comfortably numb
Footballguy
126.05Gonna be a pretty low cut line this week, any of the stat crunchers want to take a stab at the number? Closest to the number gets FFA glory, and mad props.
126.05Gonna be a pretty low cut line this week, any of the stat crunchers want to take a stab at the number? Closest to the number gets FFA glory, and mad props.
121.65Gonna be a pretty low cut line this week, any of the stat crunchers want to take a stab at the number? Closest to the number gets FFA glory, and mad props.
I'm hoping this is close. With injuries and byes I only have 1 QB, 3 RB,4 WR, and 2 TE going. Even worse is I'll be sweating it out until MNF with Cutler, Forte and Hanson as likely starters.121.65Gonna be a pretty low cut line this week, any of the stat crunchers want to take a stab at the number? Closest to the number gets FFA glory, and mad props.
135.70121.65Gonna be a pretty low cut line this week, any of the stat crunchers want to take a stab at the number? Closest to the number gets FFA glory, and mad props.
192.10135.70121.65Gonna be a pretty low cut line this week, any of the stat crunchers want to take a stab at the number? Closest to the number gets FFA glory, and mad props.
I have never had great success here...middle of the pack, but I think 3 of each is the way to go. The price is simply to cheap and hedging your bet each week is well worth it.I always take 3/each with middle of the pack to lesser guysBironasPraterTynes$3/eachNYJ/TB/CAR4/4/3Kickers have given me a total of 98pts16.3 weekly averagea low of 7 and a high of 20Defense have given me a total of 78pts13.1 weekly averagea low of 9 and a high of 20I just don't like going with 2/each as with a BYE week you limit yourself to 1 option and at these prices, you basically have a 1/3 shot at getting double digit scores.So I spent a couple of days and read through the entire thread. I never knew this thread existed and I look forward to reading and posting in it in the future. Like a lot of you guys this is my favorite contest every year. I'm also glad to see so many of you go through so many iterations and change your lineup so often like I do. I probably messed with my lineup once a day (and submitted a new lineup once every two or three days) from the day it went live to the day it locked. I've been doing it for like 5ish years now and unfortunately never made money or the top 250 in this contest yet, but I'm still alive and hoping this is finally the year.Not trying to rehash all the discussions/arguments that have been pretty much beaten to death throughout this thread so far, but the thing I struggle with the most is the K/DEF discussion. I've been an ardent supporter of taking just two of each with different bye weeks and always from the lowest tier. My thinking was that they dont really make much of a difference and are hard to predict anyway, so I just don't spend a lot of time or money on it. I would love to hear from the 3 (or more) of each crowd as to whether or not they feel it improves their team enough to make it worth the extra salary dump.
Good games out of K and D do make a huge difference. However, because they are difficult to predict, adding an extra random K and D is one of the easier decisions to make when setting a roster.Not trying to rehash all the discussions/arguments that have been pretty much beaten to death throughout this thread so far, but the thing I struggle with the most is the K/DEF discussion. I've been an ardent supporter of taking just two of each with different bye weeks and always from the lowest tier. My thinking was that they dont really make much of a difference and are hard to predict anyway, so I just don't spend a lot of time or money on it. I would love to hear from the 3 (or more) of each crowd as to whether or not they feel it improves their team enough to make it worth the extra salary dump.
Count of all teams, by number of kickers, number of defenses, and total roster size:Not trying to rehash all the discussions/arguments that have been pretty much beaten to death throughout this thread so far, but the thing I struggle with the most is the K/DEF discussion. I've been an ardent supporter of taking just two of each with different bye weeks and always from the lowest tier. My thinking was that they dont really make much of a difference and are hard to predict anyway, so I just don't spend a lot of time or money on it. I would love to hear from the 3 (or more) of each crowd as to whether or not they feel it improves their team enough to make it worth the extra salary dump.
K -> 1 2 3 4+ 1 2 3 4+ 1 2 3 4+ 1 2 3 4+D -> 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4+ 4+ 4+ 4+18 696 248 30 24 272 2806 161 31 24 179 80 14 9 30 16 1319 139 78 17 8 69 1254 74 12 9 89 41 5 3 8 6 120 74 37 4 6 43 918 72 9 6 107 71 6 3 10 5 621 37 17 2 6 23 745 85 11 2 97 97 7 2 2 9 422 19 21 4 1 12 564 80 5 3 96 141 3 1 7 4 523 15 5 3 5 3 391 79 8 2 102 176 9 0 5 8 324 7 6 1 0 8 234 84 7 1 73 176 8 0 6 11 525 7 3 0 1 5 160 62 6 2 49 157 7 2 2 13 826 3 2 0 0 3 88 26 5 1 44 163 13 0 2 19 1527 2 1 0 1 0 70 26 4 0 36 121 15 0 2 21 1328 3 0 0 1 1 39 18 6 0 20 98 11 0 0 16 1729 1 0 0 1 2 33 15 0 0 22 75 15 0 5 12 1230 5 3 2 10 1 44 26 1 0 23 129 19 0 2 27 47TOT 1008 421 63 64 442 7346 808 105 50 937 1525 132 20 81 167 149
K -> 1 2 3 4+ 1 2 3 4+ 1 2 3 4+ 1 2 3 4+D -> 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4+ 4+ 4+ 4+18 158 67 9 2 62 1050 61 5 3 48 26 2 2 8 7 119 28 25 5 0 19 484 19 2 2 30 17 3 0 0 3 020 14 11 2 1 17 362 33 1 1 42 34 2 0 3 2 121 9 4 0 0 4 309 34 4 1 38 37 2 0 1 2 122 5 7 1 0 4 221 37 2 1 34 70 2 1 3 2 223 4 1 1 3 2 161 34 3 1 41 88 3 0 2 7 124 2 1 0 0 0 113 37 3 0 33 83 2 0 1 7 225 2 3 0 1 1 69 35 3 1 22 79 4 1 0 3 226 1 0 0 0 1 35 10 0 0 14 75 7 0 1 8 427 0 1 0 0 0 31 8 1 0 17 57 6 0 1 10 928 0 0 0 0 1 17 12 4 0 10 51 3 0 0 6 629 1 0 0 0 1 14 7 0 0 9 40 8 0 3 7 530 0 0 0 0 0 17 13 0 0 8 58 8 0 0 15 18TOT 224 120 18 7 112 2883 340 28 10 346 715 52 4 23 79 52
K -> 1 2 3 4+ 1 2 3 4+ 1 2 3 4+ 1 2 3 4+D -> 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4+ 4+ 4+ 4+18 22.7% 27.0% 30.0% 8.3% 22.8% 37.4% 37.9% 16.1% 12.5% 26.8% 32.5% 14.3% 22.2% 26.7% 43.8% 7.7%19 20.1% 32.1% 29.4% 0.0% 27.5% 38.6% 25.7% 16.7% 22.2% 33.7% 41.5% 60.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0%20 18.9% 29.7% 50.0% 16.7% 39.5% 39.4% 45.8% 11.1% 16.7% 39.3% 47.9% 33.3% 0.0% 30.0% 40.0% 16.7%21 24.3% 23.5% 0.0% 0.0% 17.4% 41.5% 40.0% 36.4% 50.0% 39.2% 38.1% 28.6% 0.0% 50.0% 22.2% 25.0%22 26.3% 33.3% 25.0% 0.0% 33.3% 39.2% 46.3% 40.0% 33.3% 35.4% 49.6% 66.7% 100.0% 42.9% 50.0% 40.0%23 26.7% 20.0% 33.3% 60.0% 66.7% 41.2% 43.0% 37.5% 50.0% 40.2% 50.0% 33.3% --- 40.0% 87.5% 33.3%24 28.6% 16.7% 0.0% --- 0.0% 48.3% 44.0% 42.9% 0.0% 45.2% 47.2% 25.0% --- 16.7% 63.6% 40.0%25 28.6% 100.0% --- 100.0% 20.0% 43.1% 56.5% 50.0% 50.0% 44.9% 50.3% 57.1% 50.0% 0.0% 23.1% 25.0%26 33.3% 0.0% --- --- 33.3% 39.8% 38.5% 0.0% 0.0% 31.8% 46.0% 53.8% --- 50.0% 42.1% 26.7%27 0.0% 100.0% --- 0.0% --- 44.3% 30.8% 25.0% --- 47.2% 47.1% 40.0% --- 50.0% 47.6% 69.2%28 0.0% --- --- 0.0% 100.0% 43.6% 66.7% 66.7% --- 50.0% 52.0% 27.3% --- --- 37.5% 35.3%29 100.0% --- --- 0.0% 50.0% 42.4% 46.7% --- --- 40.9% 53.3% 53.3% --- 60.0% 58.3% 41.7%30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 38.6% 50.0% 0.0% --- 34.8% 45.0% 42.1% --- 0.0% 55.6% 38.3%TOT 22.2% 28.5% 28.6% 10.9% 25.3% 39.2% 42.1% 26.7% 20.0% 36.9% 46.9% 39.4% 20.0% 28.4% 47.3% 34.9%
K -> 1 2 3 4+ 1 2 3 4+ 1 2 3 4+ 1 2 3 4+D -> 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4+ 4+ 4+ 4+18 161.84 165.62 165.99 157.74 164.30 169.18 168.78 164.56 158.34 168.31 168.74 162.47 159.70 165.26 168.33 160.1219 159.85 166.24 162.84 163.67 163.95 169.48 169.04 164.22 164.12 167.79 169.40 172.48 160.55 162.78 173.13 171.0220 162.07 164.95 172.92 154.01 165.79 169.51 170.63 157.38 159.46 169.10 170.70 166.83 161.11 162.22 166.93 159.7521 161.52 164.09 159.10 167.20 161.85 170.26 172.07 168.46 168.50 170.07 169.46 162.42 155.76 173.97 166.29 173.8422 160.96 166.37 160.33 144.19 165.13 170.10 171.68 168.92 159.90 169.21 171.65 170.20 156.40 166.51 175.01 165.9323 154.65 165.33 143.08 161.36 171.98 168.77 171.05 163.48 162.66 168.43 172.44 164.51 --- 169.17 175.78 166.9224 154.18 160.86 171.06 --- 165.01 170.16 171.59 167.53 167.79 168.62 171.66 172.13 --- 167.20 176.58 171.6225 163.40 167.44 --- 175.68 154.63 169.04 171.33 173.05 160.80 170.89 170.89 168.16 150.69 161.07 169.14 161.2426 158.16 167.19 --- --- 163.19 169.03 168.58 164.82 146.62 169.57 171.59 169.24 --- 173.50 171.57 165.9527 104.06 167.47 --- 171.76 --- 170.86 168.28 167.69 --- 167.68 170.81 168.73 --- 169.70 172.06 175.5428 155.37 --- --- 176.47 172.73 170.26 175.89 169.03 --- 169.75 171.48 165.99 --- --- 169.27 168.0729 159.13 --- --- 128.41 164.03 169.06 171.11 --- --- 169.80 172.96 173.10 --- 170.23 172.36 168.3030 150.87 165.18 155.05 127.06 157.62 169.89 173.30 162.41 --- 166.98 170.88 168.26 --- 159.40 171.58 166.86TOT 161.20 165.60 163.64 154.63 164.23 169.48 170.64 165.49 160.24 168.87 171.18 167.96 158.58 165.72 171.22 166.95

I used to be in the 3 is better than 2 crowd.My original thinking (it pretty much applies to both PK and DEF):1) Week to week they are pretty much unpredictable BUT2) Have an ability to score VERY well.Adding these 2 together, grabbing 3 of them increased your chances of having one that scored very well in any given week. Additionally,1) Especially defenses, Great NFL defenses does not neccessarily equal great defenses for contest. A) They cost a lot, B)you get most of your points in this contest from Turnovers and more importantly TD's. Great Defenses do get these at a higher rate (especially Turnovers, TD's are more flukey), but they are typically so good that they force a lot of 3 and outs. A defense can't score you these points if they aren't on the field. Bad defenses are on the field more, which means more opportunities for these things to happen. 2) For both K and Def, the ones you expect to be the best at the beginning of the year aren't necessarily the ones that are best at the end of the year. Translated: there is turnover amongst the top ones. Adding these 2 together, I think you're better off grabbing low end players versus high end players. Why take an expensive Kicker if you can get 2 or 3 inexpensive ones at the same cost?This year, however, I changed my positioning and went from 3 of each to 2 of each. I'm out of the contest now, but don't think this had any impact. I still believe in what I said above, but the difference was the changing of price structure. For pretty much all players this year, they narrowed the cost gap between the top players and bottom players. For the main positions, the gap is still pretty large (a $2 RB/WR vs $30 RB/WR). But for Kickers and Defenses, the cheapest went from $2 to $3 and the most expensive were around $6. Forgoing a $5 defense used to mean I could get 2 $2 defenses and have a $1 to spent elsewhere. Now it meant getins 1 $3 defense and having $2 to spend else where. To go with 3 K/D meant I had to spend a minimum of $9 where it use to be $6, a 50% increase. $3 doesn't seem like a lot, but it's a James Jones, Andre Roberts, Kerley or Ced Benson (pre injury but you get the point). It's the difference between Eric Decker or Maclin and Harvin. Of course I'm cherry picking here a bit to show you the impact that $3 could have, but the point is that a 3rd kicker COULD increase your score in any given week by what? Ignoring extremes, 10 points? I just don't see that as enough justification when you could of had a guy that could easily of matched that score increase, if not better it, and do so more consistently.So I spent a couple of days and read through the entire thread. I never knew this thread existed and I look forward to reading and posting in it in the future. Like a lot of you guys this is my favorite contest every year. I'm also glad to see so many of you go through so many iterations and change your lineup so often like I do. I probably messed with my lineup once a day (and submitted a new lineup once every two or three days) from the day it went live to the day it locked. I've been doing it for like 5ish years now and unfortunately never made money or the top 250 in this contest yet, but I'm still alive and hoping this is finally the year.Not trying to rehash all the discussions/arguments that have been pretty much beaten to death throughout this thread so far, but the thing I struggle with the most is the K/DEF discussion. I've been an ardent supporter of taking just two of each with different bye weeks and always from the lowest tier. My thinking was that they dont really make much of a difference and are hard to predict anyway, so I just don't spend a lot of time or money on it. I would love to hear from the 3 (or more) of each crowd as to whether or not they feel it improves their team enough to make it worth the extra salary dump.
The thing about bargain-basement Ks and Ds is that it's hard to predict which ones will work. I took three of each; at K I never scored less than 12 points, and at D I never scored less than 6. (One K bye and two D byes are gone.) If I had chosen the so-far best combo of two Ks (Gould and Dawson) I would still have scored at least 12 points each week, but if I had chosen one of those and Hauschka I would have had lower weeks; with Gould and Hauschka I would have had a 6-point and 7-point week, with Dawson and Hauschka I would have had one 2-point week.For defense, same thing, if I'd chosen my best combo I would have done just as well, but if I'd chosen one of my two good ones with my bad one (the Colts), I would have had 3 and 4-point weeks (with the Browns), or a 3, 4, and one point week (with the Saints).So, you can go with two if you choose them well or get lucky. Having three, though, covers byes, bad luck, and gives a solid floor to your K and D production. For $6 and two roster spots it seems worth it.So I spent a couple of days and read through the entire thread. I never knew this thread existed and I look forward to reading and posting in it in the future. Like a lot of you guys this is my favorite contest every year. I'm also glad to see so many of you go through so many iterations and change your lineup so often like I do. I probably messed with my lineup once a day (and submitted a new lineup once every two or three days) from the day it went live to the day it locked. I've been doing it for like 5ish years now and unfortunately never made money or the top 250 in this contest yet, but I'm still alive and hoping this is finally the year.Not trying to rehash all the discussions/arguments that have been pretty much beaten to death throughout this thread so far, but the thing I struggle with the most is the K/DEF discussion. I've been an ardent supporter of taking just two of each with different bye weeks and always from the lowest tier. My thinking was that they dont really make much of a difference and are hard to predict anyway, so I just don't spend a lot of time or money on it. I would love to hear from the 3 (or more) of each crowd as to whether or not they feel it improves their team enough to make it worth the extra salary dump.
For every Maclin -> Harvin there's a Wayne -> Lloyd backfire or even worse a Harvin/J Jones/K/D -> Calvin. I'll take the extra dice in the craps game.To go with 3 K/D meant I had to spend a minimum of $9 where it use to be $6, a 50% increase. $3 doesn't seem like a lot, but it's a James Jones, Andre Roberts, Kerley or Ced Benson (pre injury but you get the point). It's the difference between Eric Decker or Maclin and Harvin. Of course I'm cherry picking here a bit to show you the impact that $3 could have, but the point is that a 3rd kicker COULD increase your score in any given week by what? Ignoring extremes, 10 points? I just don't see that as enough justification when you could of had a guy that could easily of matched that score increase, if not better it, and do so more consistently.
True and for every extra kicker there is missing out on taking a James Jones or Andre Roberts who have proved to be just as valuable, if not more than an extra kicker or extra defense. If you take out of the equation the "extra player" factor, meaning you have $3 to spend, would you rather have a 3rd kicker or a flyer at RB/WR? Personally, I'd rather have the flyer because of the much higher upside. But I totally get why someone would rather have the K or Def if they thought it gave them a higher floor score each week. In the end, this, like most things in this contest, comes down to not so much using one strategy or another (or one being "the correct" strategy), but selecting the correct players that make that strategy successful.For every Maclin -> Harvin there's a Wayne -> Lloyd backfire or even worse a Harvin/J Jones/K/D -> Calvin. I'll take the extra dice in the craps game.To go with 3 K/D meant I had to spend a minimum of $9 where it use to be $6, a 50% increase. $3 doesn't seem like a lot, but it's a James Jones, Andre Roberts, Kerley or Ced Benson (pre injury but you get the point). It's the difference between Eric Decker or Maclin and Harvin. Of course I'm cherry picking here a bit to show you the impact that $3 could have, but the point is that a 3rd kicker COULD increase your score in any given week by what? Ignoring extremes, 10 points? I just don't see that as enough justification when you could of had a guy that could easily of matched that score increase, if not better it, and do so more consistently.
I think it's interesting to see the significant difference in the survival rates versus the insignificant difference in the scoring average. It might be interesting to also see the same table of the average scores of just the surviving teams.Count of all teams, by number of kickers, number of defenses, and total roster size:Not trying to rehash all the discussions/arguments that have been pretty much beaten to death throughout this thread so far, but the thing I struggle with the most is the K/DEF discussion. I've been an ardent supporter of taking just two of each with different bye weeks and always from the lowest tier. My thinking was that they dont really make much of a difference and are hard to predict anyway, so I just don't spend a lot of time or money on it. I would love to hear from the 3 (or more) of each crowd as to whether or not they feel it improves their team enough to make it worth the extra salary dump.Count of live teams:Code:K -> 1 2 3 4+ 1 2 3 4+ 1 2 3 4+ 1 2 3 4+D -> 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4+ 4+ 4+ 4+18 696 248 30 24 272 2806 161 31 24 179 80 14 9 30 16 1319 139 78 17 8 69 1254 74 12 9 89 41 5 3 8 6 120 74 37 4 6 43 918 72 9 6 107 71 6 3 10 5 621 37 17 2 6 23 745 85 11 2 97 97 7 2 2 9 422 19 21 4 1 12 564 80 5 3 96 141 3 1 7 4 523 15 5 3 5 3 391 79 8 2 102 176 9 0 5 8 324 7 6 1 0 8 234 84 7 1 73 176 8 0 6 11 525 7 3 0 1 5 160 62 6 2 49 157 7 2 2 13 826 3 2 0 0 3 88 26 5 1 44 163 13 0 2 19 1527 2 1 0 1 0 70 26 4 0 36 121 15 0 2 21 1328 3 0 0 1 1 39 18 6 0 20 98 11 0 0 16 1729 1 0 0 1 2 33 15 0 0 22 75 15 0 5 12 1230 5 3 2 10 1 44 26 1 0 23 129 19 0 2 27 47TOT 1008 421 63 64 442 7346 808 105 50 937 1525 132 20 81 167 149Survival rate:Code:K -> 1 2 3 4+ 1 2 3 4+ 1 2 3 4+ 1 2 3 4+D -> 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4+ 4+ 4+ 4+18 158 67 9 2 62 1050 61 5 3 48 26 2 2 8 7 119 28 25 5 0 19 484 19 2 2 30 17 3 0 0 3 020 14 11 2 1 17 362 33 1 1 42 34 2 0 3 2 121 9 4 0 0 4 309 34 4 1 38 37 2 0 1 2 122 5 7 1 0 4 221 37 2 1 34 70 2 1 3 2 223 4 1 1 3 2 161 34 3 1 41 88 3 0 2 7 124 2 1 0 0 0 113 37 3 0 33 83 2 0 1 7 225 2 3 0 1 1 69 35 3 1 22 79 4 1 0 3 226 1 0 0 0 1 35 10 0 0 14 75 7 0 1 8 427 0 1 0 0 0 31 8 1 0 17 57 6 0 1 10 928 0 0 0 0 1 17 12 4 0 10 51 3 0 0 6 629 1 0 0 0 1 14 7 0 0 9 40 8 0 3 7 530 0 0 0 0 0 17 13 0 0 8 58 8 0 0 15 18TOT 224 120 18 7 112 2883 340 28 10 346 715 52 4 23 79 52Average score of all teams:Code:K -> 1 2 3 4+ 1 2 3 4+ 1 2 3 4+ 1 2 3 4+D -> 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4+ 4+ 4+ 4+18 22.7% 27.0% 30.0% 8.3% 22.8% 37.4% 37.9% 16.1% 12.5% 26.8% 32.5% 14.3% 22.2% 26.7% 43.8% 7.7%19 20.1% 32.1% 29.4% 0.0% 27.5% 38.6% 25.7% 16.7% 22.2% 33.7% 41.5% 60.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0%20 18.9% 29.7% 50.0% 16.7% 39.5% 39.4% 45.8% 11.1% 16.7% 39.3% 47.9% 33.3% 0.0% 30.0% 40.0% 16.7%21 24.3% 23.5% 0.0% 0.0% 17.4% 41.5% 40.0% 36.4% 50.0% 39.2% 38.1% 28.6% 0.0% 50.0% 22.2% 25.0%22 26.3% 33.3% 25.0% 0.0% 33.3% 39.2% 46.3% 40.0% 33.3% 35.4% 49.6% 66.7% 100.0% 42.9% 50.0% 40.0%23 26.7% 20.0% 33.3% 60.0% 66.7% 41.2% 43.0% 37.5% 50.0% 40.2% 50.0% 33.3% --- 40.0% 87.5% 33.3%24 28.6% 16.7% 0.0% --- 0.0% 48.3% 44.0% 42.9% 0.0% 45.2% 47.2% 25.0% --- 16.7% 63.6% 40.0%25 28.6% 100.0% --- 100.0% 20.0% 43.1% 56.5% 50.0% 50.0% 44.9% 50.3% 57.1% 50.0% 0.0% 23.1% 25.0%26 33.3% 0.0% --- --- 33.3% 39.8% 38.5% 0.0% 0.0% 31.8% 46.0% 53.8% --- 50.0% 42.1% 26.7%27 0.0% 100.0% --- 0.0% --- 44.3% 30.8% 25.0% --- 47.2% 47.1% 40.0% --- 50.0% 47.6% 69.2%28 0.0% --- --- 0.0% 100.0% 43.6% 66.7% 66.7% --- 50.0% 52.0% 27.3% --- --- 37.5% 35.3%29 100.0% --- --- 0.0% 50.0% 42.4% 46.7% --- --- 40.9% 53.3% 53.3% --- 60.0% 58.3% 41.7%30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 38.6% 50.0% 0.0% --- 34.8% 45.0% 42.1% --- 0.0% 55.6% 38.3%TOT 22.2% 28.5% 28.6% 10.9% 25.3% 39.2% 42.1% 26.7% 20.0% 36.9% 46.9% 39.4% 20.0% 28.4% 47.3% 34.9%In general, three of each is probably the way to go; however, if you're going with a small roster (e.g. 18 players) then you're probably better off with just two of each. I've always been a larger-roster, two-of-each kind of guy, so I suppose my personal philosophy goes against what the data would suggest. I'd always rather spend that extra $6+ on another one or two RBs or WRs.Code:K -> 1 2 3 4+ 1 2 3 4+ 1 2 3 4+ 1 2 3 4+D -> 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4+ 4+ 4+ 4+18 161.84 165.62 165.99 157.74 164.30 169.18 168.78 164.56 158.34 168.31 168.74 162.47 159.70 165.26 168.33 160.1219 159.85 166.24 162.84 163.67 163.95 169.48 169.04 164.22 164.12 167.79 169.40 172.48 160.55 162.78 173.13 171.0220 162.07 164.95 172.92 154.01 165.79 169.51 170.63 157.38 159.46 169.10 170.70 166.83 161.11 162.22 166.93 159.7521 161.52 164.09 159.10 167.20 161.85 170.26 172.07 168.46 168.50 170.07 169.46 162.42 155.76 173.97 166.29 173.8422 160.96 166.37 160.33 144.19 165.13 170.10 171.68 168.92 159.90 169.21 171.65 170.20 156.40 166.51 175.01 165.9323 154.65 165.33 143.08 161.36 171.98 168.77 171.05 163.48 162.66 168.43 172.44 164.51 --- 169.17 175.78 166.9224 154.18 160.86 171.06 --- 165.01 170.16 171.59 167.53 167.79 168.62 171.66 172.13 --- 167.20 176.58 171.6225 163.40 167.44 --- 175.68 154.63 169.04 171.33 173.05 160.80 170.89 170.89 168.16 150.69 161.07 169.14 161.2426 158.16 167.19 --- --- 163.19 169.03 168.58 164.82 146.62 169.57 171.59 169.24 --- 173.50 171.57 165.9527 104.06 167.47 --- 171.76 --- 170.86 168.28 167.69 --- 167.68 170.81 168.73 --- 169.70 172.06 175.5428 155.37 --- --- 176.47 172.73 170.26 175.89 169.03 --- 169.75 171.48 165.99 --- --- 169.27 168.0729 159.13 --- --- 128.41 164.03 169.06 171.11 --- --- 169.80 172.96 173.10 --- 170.23 172.36 168.3030 150.87 165.18 155.05 127.06 157.62 169.89 173.30 162.41 --- 166.98 170.88 168.26 --- 159.40 171.58 166.86TOT 161.20 165.60 163.64 154.63 164.23 169.48 170.64 165.49 160.24 168.87 171.18 167.96 158.58 165.72 171.22 166.95![]()
Why not go for both a pile of K/D and bunch of flyers? I took 4 K 4 D and a 30 man roster. Like someone said above k/d are highly unpredictable and can score a ton of points. These spots are the ultimate quantity over quality imho.True and for every extra kicker there is missing out on taking a James Jones or Andre Roberts who have proved to be just as valuable, if not more than an extra kicker or extra defense. If you take out of the equation the "extra player" factor, meaning you have $3 to spend, would you rather have a 3rd kicker or a flyer at RB/WR? Personally, I'd rather have the flyer because of the much higher upside. But I totally get why someone would rather have the K or Def if they thought it gave them a higher floor score each week. In the end, this, like most things in this contest, comes down to not so much using one strategy or another (or one being "the correct" strategy), but selecting the correct players that make that strategy successful.For every Maclin -> Harvin there's a Wayne -> Lloyd backfire or even worse a Harvin/J Jones/K/D -> Calvin. I'll take the extra dice in the craps game.To go with 3 K/D meant I had to spend a minimum of $9 where it use to be $6, a 50% increase. $3 doesn't seem like a lot, but it's a James Jones, Andre Roberts, Kerley or Ced Benson (pre injury but you get the point). It's the difference between Eric Decker or Maclin and Harvin. Of course I'm cherry picking here a bit to show you the impact that $3 could have, but the point is that a 3rd kicker COULD increase your score in any given week by what? Ignoring extremes, 10 points? I just don't see that as enough justification when you could of had a guy that could easily of matched that score increase, if not better it, and do so more consistently.
3K/3D guy here as well....Also a fan of big rosters with 29 players this year. Even with the increase in K/D prices, the reduction of prices elsewhere offset it. Frankly, we saw the same debate this year that we did last year about roster size and once more the large rosters are leading the pack. With 3K/3D I think you get the best value each week even with byes where you reduce your variation of scoring. In the first 3 weeks, I used each defense once. In the last 3 weeks, I used each kicker once and each defense once. If I went with 2 K or 2 D, I would have been out in Week 2 or Week 3 this year... would have been my earliest exit ever... For me I will always go 3K/3D just too good to pass up and when you go deep in the contest, those points can make the difference in survival.So I spent a couple of days and read through the entire thread. I never knew this thread existed and I look forward to reading and posting in it in the future. Like a lot of you guys this is my favorite contest every year. I'm also glad to see so many of you go through so many iterations and change your lineup so often like I do. I probably messed with my lineup once a day (and submitted a new lineup once every two or three days) from the day it went live to the day it locked. I've been doing it for like 5ish years now and unfortunately never made money or the top 250 in this contest yet, but I'm still alive and hoping this is finally the year.Not trying to rehash all the discussions/arguments that have been pretty much beaten to death throughout this thread so far, but the thing I struggle with the most is the K/DEF discussion. I've been an ardent supporter of taking just two of each with different bye weeks and always from the lowest tier. My thinking was that they dont really make much of a difference and are hard to predict anyway, so I just don't spend a lot of time or money on it. I would love to hear from the 3 (or more) of each crowd as to whether or not they feel it improves their team enough to make it worth the extra salary dump.
This is pretty much how I feel too. This does seem to be an especially good year for $3 studs, though, so maybe there's a bit of confirmation bias involved.Thanks for the tables, they were interesting. So far 3/3 is beating up 2/2 at almost every roster size. But it'll be interesting to see if that remains the case throughout the season as injuries and bye weeks start to take over and the extra roster spot becomes more valuable.'Ignoratio Elenchi said:I've always been a larger-roster, two-of-each kind of guy, so I suppose my personal philosophy goes against what the data would suggest. I'd always rather spend that extra $6+ on another one or two RBs or WRs.![]()
Agreed if your kicker isn't Kaeding.I look at the K/Def choice from an injury perspective. Injuries play a big part in knocking you out of the contest each year; probably more than the extra 3-5 points you might pick up occasionally from a 3rd K or Def. Since a defense can't be injured and a kicker is rarely injured, I'd rather spend the $6 saved on an extra WR or RB.
I wouldn't worry. Based On all of the people freaking out about byes and injuries this week I think the cut should be around 80.Maybe I shouldn't have been too confident about my chances. Bagel from Miller and Gates on a bye means 0 TE points this week![]()

That's certainly another way to go about it. And if I went with a roster higher that 26, I'd almost certainly have 3 K and 3 D. But I tend to believe the sweet spot for this contest with in the 24-26 range. You get some of the benefit of the increased survival rate of larger rosters while not giving too much up in terms of "studs" versus the smaller 18 and 19 man rosters.'ctriopelle said:Why not go for both a pile of K/D and bunch of flyers? I took 4 K 4 D and a 30 man roster. Like someone said above k/d are highly unpredictable and can score a ton of points. These spots are the ultimate quantity over quality imho.'Modog814 said:True and for every extra kicker there is missing out on taking a James Jones or Andre Roberts who have proved to be just as valuable, if not more than an extra kicker or extra defense. If you take out of the equation the "extra player" factor, meaning you have $3 to spend, would you rather have a 3rd kicker or a flyer at RB/WR? Personally, I'd rather have the flyer because of the much higher upside. But I totally get why someone would rather have the K or Def if they thought it gave them a higher floor score each week. In the end, this, like most things in this contest, comes down to not so much using one strategy or another (or one being "the correct" strategy), but selecting the correct players that make that strategy successful.For every Maclin -> Harvin there's a Wayne -> Lloyd backfire or even worse a Harvin/J Jones/K/D -> Calvin. I'll take the extra dice in the craps game.To go with 3 K/D meant I had to spend a minimum of $9 where it use to be $6, a 50% increase. $3 doesn't seem like a lot, but it's a James Jones, Andre Roberts, Kerley or Ced Benson (pre injury but you get the point). It's the difference between Eric Decker or Maclin and Harvin. Of course I'm cherry picking here a bit to show you the impact that $3 could have, but the point is that a 3rd kicker COULD increase your score in any given week by what? Ignoring extremes, 10 points? I just don't see that as enough justification when you could of had a guy that could easily of matched that score increase, if not better it, and do so more consistently.
Just to be clear, I don't think there is any debate that large rosters have an advantage over small rosters in the "survivor" portion of this contest. The debate we have is whether smaller rosters have any (and if so how much of) advantage in the final 3 weeks.3K/3D guy here as well....
Also a fan of big rosters with 29 players this year. Even with the increase in K/D prices, the reduction of prices elsewhere offset it. Frankly, we saw the same debate this year that we did last year about roster size and once more the large rosters are leading the pack. With 3K/3D I think you get the best value each week even with byes where you reduce your variation of scoring.
In the first 3 weeks, I used each defense once. In the last 3 weeks, I used each kicker once and each defense once. If I went with 2 K or 2 D, I would have been out in Week 2 or Week 3 this year... would have been my earliest exit ever... For me I will always go 3K/3D just too good to pass up and when you go deep in the contest, those points can make the difference in survival.
So 80% of my average would get me to about 141.1 (rounding the position groups) and hopefully safety.From my group I needQB - Gabbert: 23.6Me:QB 29.46RB1 22.67RB2 14.68WR1 27.30WR2 13.83WR3 10.20TE 17.80FLX 14.78PK 13.67DEF 11.83TOT 176.23It's a nice way of telling me that for all the players I have I don't exactly have the best group of 9 WR.On a different note, my flex position scoreboard: TE 4, RB 2, WR 0-QG
RBs - Foster and Lynch: 29.9 total. Lynch had 11.6 so Foster's target is 18.3 - I'm assuming Royster and Taiwan Jones and Kevin Smith don't do anything.WRs - Dez Titus Blackmon: 41.1 total. I'm assuming I get nothing out of Broyles.TEs - (I am already assuming my flex will be a TE) - Best two of Hernandez Gresham Olsen: 26.1 totalPKs - Bironas Nugent: 10.9TDs - Cincy NO Jets: 9.5Will track against these benchmarks to assess my chances. Manningham's injury was a big blow I think.-QGyeah, throw in the SF/SEA game....gonna get real low me thinks.I wouldn't worry. Based On all of the people freaking out about byes and injuries this week I think the cut should be around 80.Maybe I shouldn't have been too confident about my chances. Bagel from Miller and Gates on a bye means 0 TE points this week![]()
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I have always struggled picking good buys at RB.I'm sure you will prevail.I don't expect to last until the finals with this squad, but hey, you never know...
HUGE in my opinion... just HUGE with this being the hardest bye week.Iggs, any chance you can tell us how many of those 1097 Graham owners do not have a viable starting TE this week with byes or injuries? With losing 1000 teams this week.. this could be a coffin nail.The 1097 remaining owners of Jimmy Graham can't like him missing the toughest bye week of the season. This could get ugly.
I will be rolling out Allen this week at TE. Graham out and Dreesen on bye. It doesn't look good at TE, but it could be worse. I'm rolling with only three WR (C. Johnson, Nelson, and Blackmon) and 4 RB (Rice, Foster, Wilson, and Royster). I'm looking at very little production from my flex position. Crossing my fingers for a low cut line and my studs to show up.HUGE in my opinion... just HUGE with this being the hardest bye week.Iggs, any chance you can tell us how many of those 1097 Graham owners do not have a viable starting TE this week with byes or injuries? With losing 1000 teams this week.. this could be a coffin nail.The 1097 remaining owners of Jimmy Graham can't like him missing the toughest bye week of the season. This could get ugly.