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***Official*** 2012 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (2 Viewers)

My ghost entry (which had lost by less than 4 points and had been rocking up until now) got slaughtered this week. MJD/Roethlisberger out and Lynch on bye sealed it. I'm glad; now I don't have to think about "if I'd only gotten 16 points out of Roethlistberger in week 6..."

 
I loved my core of Rodgers, Calvin, Ray Rice, McCoy and Graham if I made it past Week 11 but this McCoy injury is surely going to hurt. Going to need some BIG things out of Mendenhall or Dwyer the next 2 weeks to have a chance.

 
As sensitivity analysis...If Marshall gets 30 points (instead of 16.1), cutline is 141.1If Robbie Gould gets 15 instead of 6.3, cutline is 139.5If 49ers get 20 instead of 10, cutline is 139.95If all three happen, cutline is 141.7
Looks like I'll need about 34 from Marshall to survive.C'mon Campbell!!!! :bag: I'm done.
 
Yup, no QB this week with Vick ruled out and Locker on bye. Only RB's who even have a chance to score points this week are McFadden and Taiwan Jones.Need an epic week from every other position to survive.
Buffalo's Defense giving me a ray of hope to start the week.
Buffalo Def/ST and R. Lindell were both welome hits for me.
Another big thank you to Blackmon. Sitting at 142.3 according to fftools/fbg35K website. Still have Marshall(-6) and Bears Def (-15) to go, so if above Dodd's game predictions hold up, I might squeak by. Would like a few more points from Marshall though, just to feel comfortable.
 
Sitting at 147.5 with Robbie Gould -15.

This is going to be a close week for me.

I cannot believe that Ryan and Flacco had such duds in the same week. Barely alive with a couple of people that really stepped up this week.

The spreadsheet shows me at #652, so as long as it is a low scoring night tonight, I may get lucky and get through this week.

I need lots of :help:

 
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'shader said:
Some other numbers for tonight:

Matt Forte: 49 owners. So he shouldn't be nearly as impactful as you might think.

Michael Bush: 91 owners

Brandon Marshall: 415 owners. Marshall is the guy that is going to move the cutline dramatically.

Alshon Jeffrey: 109 owners

49ers: 297 owners

Bears: 136 owners

Crabtree: 75

Vernon: 101 owners

Gore: 58

Hunter: 101

I don't know how these numbers compare to the average Monday Night game...

But to me, the 49ers defense and Brandon Marshall are the biggest concerns. Surprisingly, Gore and Forte shouldn't move things all that much.
So I guess as a Marshall owner safely through to next week with 177.3 + Marshall (-5.8), I should hope for Marshall to stink it up tonight but stay healthy. Easy to do as a Viking fan, but weird to be cheering against a player on my roster.
 
'harryhood said:
I loved my core of Rodgers, Calvin, Ray Rice, McCoy and Graham if I made it past Week 11 but this McCoy injury is surely going to hurt. Going to need some BIG things out of Mendenhall or Dwyer the next 2 weeks to have a chance.
With the light maybe turning on for Blackmon and Martin emerging as a stud RB, I'm loving my core of Rodgers, Foster, Martin, Calvin, Marshall, Julio, and Graham, with occasional contributions from Blackmon and Titus Young at WR, and Mendenhall and Benson at RB.As the season's gone on, I'm liking my roster more and more, but I need my guys to stay healthy. Hopefully, I can make it through to the finals and Julio, Mendenhall, and Benson will be 100% for those weeks.
 
Mcgahee and Gronk owner here...brutal week. Probably killed my chances...I thought i had picked a pretty good team..ugh. No shot now.

 
Sitting at 147.5 with Robbie Gould -15. This is going to be a close week for me. I cannot believe that Ryan and Flacco had such duds in the same week. Barely alive with a couple of people that really stepped up this week. The spreadsheet shows me at #652, so as long as it is a low scoring night tonight, I may get lucky and get through this week. I need lots of :help:
I think you are safe by a mile.
 
There's still hope for me yet. V.Davis' 20.70 and B.Marshall's 10.10 put me at 140.9. Plus any points they get the rest of the game.

I thought for sure this would be my last week in this contest.

 
Starting to worry about the cut line again with all this scoring.Been a horrible fantasy week for me.Hope it doesn't carry over to here as well.

 
Sitting at 147.5 with Robbie Gould -15. This is going to be a close week for me. I cannot believe that Ryan and Flacco had such duds in the same week. Barely alive with a couple of people that really stepped up this week. The spreadsheet shows me at #652, so as long as it is a low scoring night tonight, I may get lucky and get through this week. I need lots of :help:
I think you are safe by a mile.
I sure hope you are right... It would be awesome to advance.
 
The OC live scoring is showing Andrew Luck at 11.95 points... by my count he should have 21.1 points. Am I wrong? And if not, I wonder if this affects the cutline at all?

 
The biggest risk to the cut line now is a big Marshall 4th quarter.

Also the 49ers defense is beginning to rack up points.

 
What a horrible night for Bears owners. I had 125.70 pts with Forte (-11.10), Gould (-0), and Marshall (-0) remaining. Now only up to 135.8. Hope that's enough, but it's gonna be close.

 
At game's end, I have the very unofficial cutline at 142.05.

As always, don't celebrate too hard if you have more than that, or feel too bad if you are under it, as I don't think I've nailed it once this year. This week's was more manual than others and thus even more ripe for issues. (I have Luck at 23.1 for example and the poster above has him at 21.1).

That said, at 145.4 and 932nd place by my count, I hope I've got it right!

 
At game's end, I have the very unofficial cutline at 142.05.As always, don't celebrate too hard if you have more than that, or feel too bad if you are under it, as I don't think I've nailed it once this year. This week's was more manual than others and thus even more ripe for issues. (I have Luck at 23.1 for example and the poster above has him at 21.1).That said, at 145.4 and 932nd place by my count, I hope I've got it right!
I swear I had 144.5 earlier today. Now the live scoring says 140.5. I'm sweating it. I guess we will see in the morning.
 
At game's end, I have the very unofficial cutline at 142.05.As always, don't celebrate too hard if you have more than that, or feel too bad if you are under it, as I don't think I've nailed it once this year. This week's was more manual than others and thus even more ripe for issues. (I have Luck at 23.1 for example and the poster above has him at 21.1).That said, at 145.4 and 932nd place by my count, I hope I've got it right!
I swear I had 144.5 earlier today. Now the live scoring says 140.5. I'm sweating it. I guess we will see in the morning.
My spreadsheet this week doesn't tie to the live scoring site.Here's where everyone stood going into tonight.https://docs.google....aGpTbk0wa1lHM0E
 
At game's end, I have the very unofficial cutline at 142.05.As always, don't celebrate too hard if you have more than that, or feel too bad if you are under it, as I don't think I've nailed it once this year. This week's was more manual than others and thus even more ripe for issues. (I have Luck at 23.1 for example and the poster above has him at 21.1).That said, at 145.4 and 932nd place by my count, I hope I've got it right!
This was my scary week all year long, with Peterson and Harvin out along with Victor Cruz, that has been accounting for around 50 points a week between the 3. Thanks to Blackmon, CJohnson and Graham, looks like I'll make it through in good shape (160+). The McGahee injury will hurt, I went with a very lean team (19?) so any injury increases the chances of a couple of guys having a bad game knocking me out.
 
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Congratulations to all those who made it to the final 1000.No more 142 point cut lines though.Also congrats to all of you that had the pure football genius to choose Cecil. Oh wait there were only 5 of us hmmmmm what does that tell you?

 
Finally broke through the Week 11 barrier! Ended three straight years of getting the boot in the same damn week.

After this week I've received contributions from 29 of my 30 roster spots. I know there's been an argument on here forever about large vs. small rosters, but without "going big" this year I'd have been rolled this week for sure(Blackmon, Criner and Hunter all counted this week. Wouldn't likely have been rostered on a an 18-20 man team). Probably last week as well.

Congrats to everyone who advanced. And thanks again for the cutlines, kard. Damn near spot on again.

 
Brandon Marshall owners got whacked this week: 201 eliminated, 214 remain.

Only 6 Gronkowski owners were taken down this week. 83 unlucky guys remain. I suspect that is going to be a costly loss, as his 28 dollar salary probably leaves those 83 teams really thin.

There are still 148 Mcgahee owners as well. He's not as costly as Gronk at $16 bucks..

Only 8 lucky owners have Ronnie Hillman.

Only 3 Ryan Mathews owners left!

Larry Fitzgerald has been a kiss of death this year. Only 12 owners remain.

Despite his extremely high salary, 288 Jimmy Graham owners remain.

Aaron Hernandez had a high salary too, and the 32 remaining owners finally might just get their money's worth.

Still 212 Julio Jones owners. His injury over the next 2 weeks could be costly to those teams if he can't get back to 100%.

There are also 141 Mcfadden owners still skating through but missing a huge chunk of their salary.

 
Brandon Marshall owners got whacked this week: 201 eliminated, 214 remain. Only 6 Gronkowski owners were taken down this week. 83 unlucky guys remain. I suspect that is going to be a costly loss, as his 28 dollar salary probably leaves those 83 teams really thin.There are still 148 Mcgahee owners as well. He's not as costly as Gronk at $16 bucks..Only 8 lucky owners have Ronnie Hillman.Only 3 Ryan Mathews owners left!Larry Fitzgerald has been a kiss of death this year. Only 12 owners remain.Despite his extremely high salary, 288 Jimmy Graham owners remain. Aaron Hernandez had a high salary too, and the 32 remaining owners finally might just get their money's worth.Still 212 Julio Jones owners. His injury over the next 2 weeks could be costly to those teams if he can't get back to 100%.There are also 141 Mcfadden owners still skating through but missing a huge chunk of their salary.
Own Marshall, Graham, Jones and DMC. Stil alive. lol
 
Code:
SIZE	ALL	ALIVE	SURV%18	4633	243	5.2%19	1813	106	5.8%20	1376	94	6.8%21	1142	74	6.5%22	966	85	8.8%23	812	91	11.2%24	626	66	10.5%25	482	56	11.6%26	380	41	10.8%27	308	32	10.4%28	229	39	17.0%29	191	27	14.1%30	335	47	14.0%TOT	13293	1001	7.5%
 
Brandon Marshall owners got whacked this week: 201 eliminated, 214 remain.

Only 6 Gronkowski owners were taken down this week. 83 unlucky guys remain. I suspect that is going to be a costly loss, as his 28 dollar salary probably leaves those 83 teams really thin.

There are still 148 Mcgahee owners as well. He's not as costly as Gronk at $16 bucks..

Only 8 lucky owners have Ronnie Hillman.

Only 3 Ryan Mathews owners left!

Larry Fitzgerald has been a kiss of death this year. Only 12 owners remain.

Despite his extremely high salary, 288 Jimmy Graham owners remain.

Aaron Hernandez had a high salary too, and the 32 remaining owners finally might just get their money's worth.

Still 212 Julio Jones owners. His injury over the next 2 weeks could be costly to those teams if he can't get back to 100%.

There are also 141 Mcfadden owners still skating through but missing a huge chunk of their salary.
Wow, I'm kinda surprised I'm only 1 of 8 left with Hillman, should be a big boost.Shocked I made it past week 11 with Locker,Bradshaw, Lynch,Harvin and Britt all out, also have Benson and Kaeding missing most of the year. Harvin is my only injury concern right now.

Surprised Kaeding has not caught on yet but he may be in Green Bay this week with Crosby crapping the bed.

 
Still alive but down to just Donald Brown and Doug Martin as my only 2 RBs still playing... DMC hurt, McGahee hurt... and I am one of the few left with a small roster (19) so only had the 4 RBs.

The Patriots defense kept me going this week, and I have some good WRs that are going to have to carry me through! Furthest I've ever made it by far, quite proud of myself... but now the 2 weeks of 50% cut come and I will likely get to say farewell...

 
At game's end, I have the very unofficial cutline at 142.05.As always, don't celebrate too hard if you have more than that, or feel too bad if you are under it, as I don't think I've nailed it once this year. This week's was more manual than others and thus even more ripe for issues. (I have Luck at 23.1 for example and the poster above has him at 21.1).That said, at 145.4 and 932nd place by my count, I hope I've got it right!
With all that you add to this thread, I really hope that you survive! I would love to see you in the finals. (Not as much as I would like to be there, but there is room for 249 others :hophead: )
 
Bilal Powell was huge for me this week. I thought he was a dead man walking. I know I cannot count on him, but ADP is back and maybe between Powell, Mendy, Leshoure, McCluster, I can eek out another RB week to week.

My team is not positioned to win. But I may have enough firepower to make the Finals (which is much better than I have ever done before) which would be very cool!

I tend to agree with above poster that TE may be a difference maker down the stretch. I have the interesting Triple Combination of Hernandez/Gates/Dwayne Allen. Maybe the Hernandez and Gates owners have been culled by their suckage given me a narrow window of possible separation.

But I have loved the ride, no matter how it ends.

 
Whew, made it in by the skin of my teeth at 146.40. Marshall’s 10.10 moved me up 4.1 points from the -6 he had to cover, giving me the final push. Of course, if he hadn’t scored that TD, one could argue that the cut would have been lower than 143.10, but I’m not sure if it would be lower than 142.3

Now, with Peterson back, I have a fighting chance.

QB Ryan/Luck…..feel good about this combo

RB McFadden(inj)/Peterson/Ridley/Mendenhall..with Benson waiting in the wings. I’ve given up on Wilson and Royster….think I’ll get two solid scores each week, but not a flex

WR Marshall/AntonioBrown(inj)/Decker/T.Smith/Blackmon/Wright/Gordon…hopefully Brown and Roth make it back to give me another option, but I feel good about getting 3 good scores from this bunch a week

TE Rudolph/Olsen/Chandler….9 out of 11 weeks I’ve gotten 10 or more from one of these guys, and usually 2 have counted…not enough firepower to keep up with Graham if he goes on a tear, though

K Prater/Lindell/Medlock/Zuerlein….each kicker has counted for me this season, even Medlock with a 22 in week 8

Def Chicago/Bills….usually it’s Chicago, but Buffalo came up big for me this past week, and has some ok matchups going forward

Overall, I feel like I have a shot at the playoffs, but no real shot at competing with the stud rosters that squeak through to the finals, unless somehow McFadden starts to perform.

 
I've always been a 2 QB, 2 K, 2 D kind of guy, but I have to admit the numbers are not on my side:

Code:
QB	ALL	ALIVE	SURV%1	270	5	1.9%2	7459	548	7.3%3	4451	367	8.2%4	837	72	8.6%5	178	9	5.1%									PK	ALL	ALIVE	SURV%1	1519	56	3.7%2	8773	626	7.1%3	2552	283	11.1%4	305	34	11.1%5	74	2	2.7%									DST	ALL	ALIVE	SURV%1	1556	50	3.2%2	8691	640	7.4%3	2630	266	10.1%4	324	41	12.7%5	67	4	6.0%
 
For reference sake, what was the cut line at 500 this week?

As far as injury goes, Benson is my only guy out. I have a 21 man roster with:

- Ray Rice

- Chris Johnson

- Reggie Bush

- Jonathan Dwyer

- Cedric Benson

- Legarrett Blount (yuck)

My WRs are alright with:

- Brandon Marshall

- Percy Harvin

- Reggie Wayne

- Justin Blackmon

- Danny Amendola

- Randy Moss

Now, if Rivers and Gates turn it on like I know they can... that will be awesome and have Heath Miller do some good stuff again, that will be doubly awesome!!!!

 
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Congratulations to all those who made it to the final 1000.No more 142 point cut lines though.
So historically the cut line go way up once you get down to this many teams? Is there an archive of cutlines from seasons past?
Not aware of any archive, but you can check the past years just by changing the date in the URL on the page for your team and then check out the winner for that year. All the cutlines will be displayed at the bottom(also, keep in mind that the scoring has been tweaked a little since the contest started too, although I don't know how much outside of INTs subtracting more now than they used to. Doesn't appear to have made much difference though.):2011:------Week 12: 154.55Week 13: 164.252010:------Week 12: 162.10 Week 13: 168.802009:------Week 12: 167.89 Week 13: 164.242008:------Week 12: 174.45 Week 13: 191.152007:------Week 12: 163.05 Week 13: 152.30
 
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'Ty_Webb said:
'rustycolts said:
Congratulations to all those who made it to the final 1000.No more 142 point cut lines though.
So historically the cut line go way up once you get down to this many teams? Is there an archive of cutlines from seasons past?
Primary factor for it going way up is that we go from cutting 20ish% in prior weeks to 37% this week to 50% next week + there are no byes. The last one is probably offset by injuries somewhat as I assume they are more impactful as the year goes on
 
Unless there is an aberration and scoring is through the roof this week, it looks like 170-180 would put you in a comfortable spot.

 
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
My ghost entry would've missed the cut by 1.40 points this week. Now I can sleep easy knowing this really just wasn't my year.
That makes once of us *sigh* - my would still be going.-QG
 
'Ty_Webb said:
'rustycolts said:
Congratulations to all those who made it to the final 1000.No more 142 point cut lines though.
So historically the cut line go way up once you get down to this many teams? Is there an archive of cutlines from seasons past?
Primary factor for it going way up is that we go from cutting 20ish% in prior weeks to 37% this week to 50% next week + there are no byes. The last one is probably offset by injuries somewhat as I assume they are more impactful as the year goes on
Duh. That makes total sense, I just spaced out. I always think that the pool gets cut in half every week, when that isn't the case. Now you need to be top 50%, which is obviously a higher hurdle to clear.
 
I cruised to week 11 with a 21 man roster but could not survive the byes for Harvin, CJ2K, Britt, and a few others even with good games from Brees, Martin, AJ Green and 49ers D. It was the only week I had to rely on Hillis, J.Baldwin, and Titus Young for something. Complete garbage. Wallace, Gonzalez and Pettigrew also came up short. Missed the cut by 20. I am not happy but the lesson is to not have 7 players on bye in week 11 and pick the wrong backups.

 
Amazingly made the cut by a hair despite getting 1.3 pts from my top two RB's, Hillis and Kevin Smith :bag:

I'm probably toast this week unless McFadden makes a miraculous recovery.

 

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