***Official*** 2012 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (3 Viewers)

[jdoggydogg]

One guy I am really shocked about the low ownership on is Davone Bess. He was an instant add the moment I saw the pricing this year. I realize he is on a crappy passing offense but he is the #1 target of the passing game with nobody even close as a #2 target. He won't put up monster numbers in any game, but I can see a lot of games where he has something like 6 catches for 60 yards. In this PPR format, that is really useful as a bye week filler and as a guy who helps guarantee you get a certain minimum production each week.

Bess and the Rams' Steve Smith were on several of my entries.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Seems like more this year. Drinen?

Size	2011 Ct	2011 %	2012 Ct	2012 %18	3568	33.1%	4633	34.8%19	1393	12.9%	1813	13.6%20	1059	9.8%	1377	10.3%21	836	7.8%	1146	8.6%22	766	7.1%	966	7.3%23	641	5.9%	814	6.1%24	547	5.1%	627	4.7%25	396	3.7%	484	3.6%26	415	3.9%	384	2.9%27	296	2.7%	312	2.3%28	269	2.5%	230	1.7%29	214	2.0%	193	1.4%30	375	3.5%	339	2.5%TOTAL	10775		13318

There are 1,065 more 18 man rosters this year than last year.

There are 2,543 more entries this year than last year. Proportionately, there are about the same number of small rosters as there were in 2011. Slightly more, but not by much.

Ah, cool

 

[jdoggydogg]

One guy I am really shocked about the low ownership on is Davone Bess.

Not enough upside...to win you need guys that can throw up points in bundles...not guys that consistently get you 12 points.

Actually you need a combination of both. Sure, Bess (or Amendola) is not going to win you the contest in the playoff weeks. But guys like him can be very instrumental in making sure you make the cuts when you have guys on bye or your studs have an off week.

The argument for Bess is even though Miami could be terrible this year, someone has to catch the football there. Seems like defenses will gang up to stop Bush and Thomas, so Bess should get a decent amount of targets.

 

[Warrior]

One guy I am really shocked about the low ownership on is Davone Bess.

Not enough upside...to win you need guys that can throw up points in bundles...not guys that consistently get you 12 points.

Actually you need a combination of both. Sure, Bess (or Amendola) is not going to win you the contest in the playoff weeks. But guys like him can be very instrumental in making sure you make the cuts when you have guys on bye or your studs have an off week.

My final change was to toss out Bess and replace him with Turbin. Bess will be a good bet for 8 points every week. Turbin could do almost nothing or he could be an absolute stud later in the season depending on circumstances. I think my team has enough "floor" guys and I went with the upside.

 

[butcher boy]

Looking at all the rosters, this thread is going to be so when McFadden gets hurt.

 

[Warrior]

Looking at all the rosters, this thread is going to be so when McFadden gets hurt.

On the flip side, when DMC puts up #1 overall numbers without getting injured, those who didn't roster him will be dropping like flies.:knockonwood:

 

[LHUCKS]

Looking at all the rosters, this thread is going to be so when McFadden gets hurt.

The upside was too much to resist for me. Didn't even handcuff him with Taiwan Jones, I figure if McFadden goes down my team is toast anyhow.

 

[FF Ninja]

One guy I am really shocked about the low ownership on is Davone Bess.

Not enough upside...to win you need guys that can throw up points in bundles...not guys that consistently get you 12 points.

Actually you need a combination of both. Sure, Bess (or Amendola) is not going to win you the contest in the playoff weeks. But guys like him can be very instrumental in making sure you make the cuts when you have guys on bye or your studs have an off week.

My final change was to toss out Bess and replace him with Turbin. Bess will be a good bet for 8 points every week. Turbin could do almost nothing or he could be an absolute stud later in the season depending on circumstances. I think my team has enough "floor" guys and I went with the upside.

I tossed out Bess and made some moves to upgrade to Crabtree. Had to downgrade from Locker to Tannehill and Wayne to Boldin, but once I got to looking at it, it was worth it for the upside of Crabree. Guy was on pace for 80+ catches last season (injured the 1st 2 games) and just needs to see a slight uptick in YPR and TDs to be a high end WR2. Bess will never get the TDs or YPR.

 

[FF Ninja]

Looking at all the rosters, this thread is going to be so when McFadden gets hurt.

On the flip side, when DMC puts up #1 overall numbers without getting injured, those who didn't roster him will be dropping like flies.:knockonwood:

Not if we spent the $26 well!

 

[LHUCKS]

IMHO, the slam dunk low dollar value plays were:

Benson

Dwyer

R. Brown (didn't roster him)

Amendola

Blackmon

 

[LHUCKS]

I hope they mix it up next year, something like start 2 QB would be interesting.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Looking at all the rosters, this thread is going to be so when McFadden gets hurt.

You have to love McFadden's upside. I just couldn't see spending that much on a guy that has never finished a full season.

 

[jdoggydogg]

One guy I am really shocked about the low ownership on is Davone Bess.

Not enough upside...to win you need guys that can throw up points in bundles...not guys that consistently get you 12 points.

Actually you need a combination of both. Sure, Bess (or Amendola) is not going to win you the contest in the playoff weeks. But guys like him can be very instrumental in making sure you make the cuts when you have guys on bye or your studs have an off week.

My final change was to toss out Bess and replace him with Turbin. Bess will be a good bet for 8 points every week. Turbin could do almost nothing or he could be an absolute stud later in the season depending on circumstances. I think my team has enough "floor" guys and I went with the upside.

I tossed out Bess and made some moves to upgrade to Crabtree. Had to downgrade from Locker to Tannehill and Wayne to Boldin, but once I got to looking at it, it was worth it for the upside of Crabree. Guy was on pace for 80+ catches last season (injured the 1st 2 games) and just needs to see a slight uptick in YPR and TDs to be a high end WR2. Bess will never get the TDs or YPR.

Crabtree was a bad WR#1. But with Moss and Manningham there to draw the coverage, Crabtree should be fine.

 

[jdoggydogg]

IMHO, the slam dunk low dollar value plays were:BensonDwyerR. Brown (didn't roster him)AmendolaBlackmon

Benson seemed like a no-brainer. I liked Brown's price, but Taiwan Jones has better potential to me. Blackmon and Amendola were steals.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Matt Schaub

Andrew Luck

Arian Foster

Ben Tate

David Wilson

Kendall Hunter

Robert Turbin

Dexter McCluster

Taiwan Jones

Calvin Johnson

Jordy Nelson

Antonio Brown

Torrey Smith

Titus Young

Justin Blackmon

Jonathan Baldwin

Jimmy Graham

Scott Chandler

Jason Hanson

Matt Prater

Houston Texans

Seattle Seahawks

 

[joffer]

no one took Cecil Shorts?? :(

 

[beast8812]

How many people had rashard jennings then took him off when MJD announced he was coming back. I know I did.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

Matt Ryan

Jake Locker

Tim Tebow

Steven Jackson

Doug Martin

Jaquizz Rodgers

Mikel Leshoure

David Wilson

Rashard Mendenhall

Cedric Benson

Evan Royster

Brandon Marshall ( )

Antonio Brown

Eric Decker

Austin Collie

Justin Blackmon

Davone Bess

Earl Bennett

Jonathan Baldwin

Fred Davis

Kyle Rudolph

Kellen Davis

Rob Bironas

Robbie Gould

Matt Prater

Seattle Seahawks

Cincinnati Bengals

Kansas City Chiefs

28 players. I like the squad quite a bit, so I expect to be out by week 3

 

[Driver]

How many people had rashard jennings then took him off when MJD announced he was coming back. I know I did.

I think the more relevant question is how many people took MJD at $25? About 2%. And is he a good value? Granted, he'll have low production during the first 2-3 games of the season, but that won't be crucial to surviving if you have a decent RB corps -- and he'll probably have a somewhat higher injury risk this season than in past seasons. But he's a good bet IMO to overperform his $25 salary in the 2nd half of the season, especially weeks 14-16. Without the holdout, he would have cost at least $5-6 more. And with 2% ownership, he definitely increases the uniqueness of your team.

 

[Ahmad Rashad]

Top 100 in this week's sim, and should be stronger later in the year when Simpson and Mendenhall can contribute. I think uniqueness is over-rated here. My team is completely unique just based on my PK's and D's (other than a 10-QB/2-RB/1-TE guy who has 6 PK's and 5 D's), and I have commonly owned ones.

I was an advocate for stud-led teams last year with the scoring changes from previous years, and the final results proved that theory out. This year, the scoring makes it even more attractive. I went with the top-$ pick at each skill position and filled in from there. As long as these guys stay pretty healthy, I like my chances. While this is a pretty risky roster, I think most are riskier because the average roster is smaller and/or has more bye week issues.

Aaron Rodgers $31

Blaine Gabbert $6

--------------------------

I like Gabbart better than Tennehill here, particularly with his matchup against Indy's bad D during Rodgers' bye week. I think Gabbart could surprise people this year, with a much-improved receiving corps, though I hope to only use him that one week. Several people have mentioned how good Gabbart looks in explaining the Blackmon pick, but that also helps Gabbart himself. I think Rodgers is the safe pick among the stud QB's, and could far outscore the others. I had Flacco here, but used the extra $5 to upgrade from Ridley to Martin, figuring I might only use Flacco the one week, and Gabbart should suffice for that.

Arian Foster $34

Doug Martin $21

Rashard Mendenhall $4

Cedric Benson $3

Evan Royster $3

--------------------------

Behind Foster, I really like Martin with the PPR scoring. As a Viking fan, I also had Peterson here until last night, but since I have him in my main league (McFadden, too) I wanted to spread the risk and used the $ on Marshall as a stronger WR3 instead. The flex will come from a combo of my RB/WR/TE depth, as someone's going to emerge from these guys -- I'd rather have the flex come from a combo of cheaper high-upside guys than pay for a higher-cost TE or RB. Benson/Royster/Mendenhall were too much value to pass up for depth behind my 2 studs, and I think Mendenhall is likely to produce better than Dwyer late in the year when it's more important if you're going to win anything.

Calvin Johnson $29

Julio Jones $23

Brandon Marshall $22

Titus Young $10

Justin Blackmon $7

Jerome Simpson $7

--------------------------

I like my top 3 stud WR's to finish in the top 5 this year if they stay healthy, with possibly ridiculous numbers. I also like the upside of Young/Blackmon/Simpson, though will have to wait until week 4 for Simpson to contribute. I had Britt in here, but since I have him in both of my leagues, I switched to Young. Also had Royal, but couldn't fit him in last iteration.

Jimmy Graham $29

John Carlson $2

--------------------------

Who knows how high Graham's ceiling is? Behind Graham, Carlson was not only the cheapest, but I think he's flying under the radar. Vikes will use 2-TE sets, and Carlson should have some pretty good games. Hopefully one will come in week 6 when Graham's on bye. He missed preseason, but should be healthy at least when it counts starting in week 2.

Matt Bryant $4

Rob Bironas $3

Matt Prater $3

--------------------------

I had an extra $, so upgraded from Gould to Bryant, who will kick mostly indoors/in good weather for a strong offense. Had Kaeding, but have him in both my leagues, so decided to diversify here.

Buffalo Bills $5

Seattle Seahawks $4

--------------------------

I like these D's and their schedules this year.

I ended up with only 20 players, having started with 25 and whittled it down, vs. 22 last year. I like having a stud-led team, but I also like having more depth than most stud-led rosters. I think all my depth this year is stronger and will contribute more than the depth I had last year, as they're all solid.

I really like my starting skill players:

Aaron Rodgers

Arian Foster

Doug Martin

Calvin Johnson

Julio Jones

Brandon Marshall

Jimmy Graham

And the depth behind them should provide a good flex and bye week/injury/underperformance fill-ins.

 

[joffer]

Resisted the urge to go too small on roster size.

Tom Brady $30

Ryan Fitzpatrick $11

Can't think of any reason why you wouldn't take one of the top 5 guys in this format. Stafford had the early bye, but Brady is a little less likely to get injured or have a down year. I figured Rodgers would be more popular. Newton's value drops a little with all TDs 6 points. Fitzpatrick I've always liked in best ball, has some big game potential

Darren Sproles $23

Fred Jackson $21

Doug Martin $21

Michael Bush $10

Bilal Powell $4

Jonathan Dwyer $4

Evan Royster $3

Love Sproles in this format, even at this price. Jackson has the ability to perform with the tier one guys if he stays upright. Martin was kind of an odd pick. I didn't end up with him in any other league, so what the hell. I'm a big fan of M. Bush's talent. I think he gets a lot of goal line looks this year. Powell, Dwyer, Royster are all easy picks at those prices

Demaryius Thomas $22

Percy Harvin $20

Dez Bryant $18

Danny Amendola $6

Jonathan Baldwin $4

Leonard Hankerson $4

Louis Murphy $2

Three guys at the top with reasonable price tags and all have the potential to perform like top 5 WRs. This trio is pretty unique, which I like. Enough's been said about Amendola, should be a good PPR guy. Baldwin is uber-talented. Hankerson and Murphy are throw-ins for some depth.

Brandon Pettigrew $15

Zach Miller $6

Scott Chandler $6

Pettigrew is easily option 2 in Detroit, I think he's very underrated this year, should be going ahead of Vernon Davis and with Hernandez.



Rob Bironas $3

Robbie Gould $3

Connor Barth $3

Just pick 3



Minnesota Vikings $4

New York Jets $4

Cincinnati Bengals $3

 

[Driver]

This year, I think there was a lot of value with mid-priced players (not studs or low-cost players). For example:

QB's:

$13 - Schaub

$11 - Flacco *

RB's:

J. Stewart ($16)

W. McGahee ($16) *

D. Williams ($15)

WR's:

Most WR's priced between $10 and $18 looked like they represented good value to me, especially:

D. Bryant ($18) *

D. Jackson ($18)

S. Johnson ($18)

B. Lloyd ($18)

D. Bowe ($17) *

A. Brown ($17)

E. Decker ($17)

J. Maclin ($17)

T. Smith ($16)

M. Wallace ($16) *

R. Wayne ($15) *

M. Floyd ($13)

K. Britt ($13)

N. Washington ($12) *

A. Boldin ($12)

L. Moore ($11)

M. Williams ($11)

M. Crabtree ($11)

R. Moss ($10)

B. LaFell ($10)

TE's (between $11 and $13):

T. Gonzalez ($13) *

J. Gresham ($13)

B. Celek ($12)

O. Daniels ($11) *

K. Rudolph ($11)

G. Olsen ($11)

* On roster.

As a result, my roster includes a few studs or near-studs (Ryan, McFadden, MJD, Gates), a bunch of mid-priced players, and a smattering of low-cost flyers. Specific decisions among mid-priced players reflected bye week considerations.

 

[texasheat]

surprised how many took DMC and didn't spend the $2 on T Jones.

 

[Doug Drinen]

Updated sim. Survival probability is guaranteed accurate!!

 

[butcher boy]

I'm just going to leave this right here.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/107604.php

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

surprised how many took DMC and didn't spend the $2 on T Jones.

I don't think Jones is a true handcuff. He likely would not get all of the work if McFadden went down, and I am skeptical that he would put up startable points. I would rather spend the money elsewhere on a guy who I think has a better chance of contributing to my lineup. Plus my philosophy on this contest is not to handcuff. To win it all things need to break my way, so for the purposes of building my team I am going to assume McFadden stays healthy this year.

 

[Ahmad Rashad]

IMHO, the slam dunk low dollar value plays were:BensonDwyerR. Brown (didn't roster him)AmendolaBlackmon

Agreed on Benson and Blackmon.I prefer Mendenhall to Dwyer, as I think he re-takes the starting role, especially later in the year when it counts more for this contest.I like Royster instead of Brown, even though it's hard to know what will happen with Shannahan. Since you don't have to choose when to start him, he's better in this format, and you should be able to get at least a couple of good weeks from him, and potentially much more, for $3. Brown is 31 now, while Royster's only 25.I think Simpson has more upside than Amendola, and was discounted because of his 3-game suspension, which isn't a big deal in this contest. Simpson could break out this year as the co-WR1 for the Vikes. He's looked great in camp, and could open up that offense. He should have some games where he outscores Harvin.I'd add Carlson for $2 as a good, cheap TE that's flying under the radar. He's missed preseason, but should play this week. He was the Vikes' biggest FA signing, so they're designing their offense around the 2 TE sets with him and Rudolph. He probably won't put up huge #'s, but should outscore Rudolph some weeks.

 

[Nick Vermeil]

I'm just going to leave this right here.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/107604.php

I'm liking the Josh Brown pick.

 

[Ahmad Rashad]

I'm just going to leave this right here.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/107604.php

You have the same 3 kickers I have... Plus 17 more...

 

[apalmer]

Updated sim. Survival probability is guaranteed accurate!!

Hmmmm, not only corrected the cutline, but also dropped my team 800 places.

 

[Ahmad Rashad]

Question for those who emphasize uniqueness in this contest:

If I'm completely unique with 3 of the 6 most-owned PK's and 2 of the 6 most-owned D's, why do I need to worry about uniqueness for the rest of my roster?

It seems like it would be pretty darn hard to come up with a roster that's not unique, so I don't get why we need to strive for uniqueness in putting together rosters. I would think it's much more important to score higher, but maybe I'm missing something...

 

[butcher boy]

I'm just going to leave this right here.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2012/107604.php

You have the same 3 kickers I have... Plus 17 more...

Not my team.

 

[Clark Griswold]

QBs

Aaron Rodgers $31

Ryan Tannehill $4

I kept going back and forth between a Ryan/Luck pairing or a stud. Went the stud route and took Rodgers because I think he will outscore all other QBs and because of his late bye week. Went with cheap backup cause if Rodgers goes down I am more than likely done anyway and used those dollars at other positions.

RBs

Chris Johnson $27

Stevan Ridley $16

Peyton Hillis $14

Rashard Mendenhall $4

Cedric Benson $3

Ronnie Brown $2

I think Chris Johnson bounces back to his 2010 form and he is also heavily involved in the passing game, a must have cause of the 1 PPR. Happy with him as my stud. I went back and forth over having another stud, but I absolutely love Hillis and Ridley this year. And at those prices I couldn't bring myself to part with either of them. Hopefully my 3 fliers contribute, although both are owned at high %s.

WRs

Calvin Johnson $29

Brandon Marshall $22

Eric Decker $17

Torrey Smith $16

Randy Moss $10

Justin Blackmon $7

Went back and forth between a having two guys over 20 or no one over 20. I think Calvin will be Calvin and Marshall will have a HUGE year. Not happy they are so highly owned but I knew that going in. I love Decker's upside and feel he finishes close to the Top 10 and ahead of Demaryius. 100+ catches. I wanted Smith cause of his big week potential and felt he was a bargain at 16, apparently alot of people did too. Moss is a hit or miss type selection and could be a key to this team. Obviously I think he has something left and will produce.

TEs

Jimmy Graham $29

Joel Dreessen $4

With 1.5 PPR for TEs I knew I wanted a stud. Liked the Gates/Olsen combo but am a little scared of Gates going down. As scary as it sounds, I don't think we've seen the best of Graham yet. Obviously put my eggs in one basket but its a helluva basket. Dreessen will end up starting a few games for me I believe. I think he finishes with more TDs than Tamme and with Denver running alot of 2 TEs sets he will have his opportunity. Went to a few Broncos training camps and he caught everything thrown near him.

Ks

Jason Hanson $4

Matt Prater $3

Went with 2 Ks instead of the 3 I had for the last couple weeks to save a couple $. Took 2 from high powered offenses and like that Hanson kicks in domes and both have strong legs.

Ds

Seattle Seahawks $4

New York Jets $4

Like both of these units and think both finish Top 10.

I might be kicking myself over not taking 2 stud RBs but we will see. At last minute I traded out Locker/F Jackson/Wayne/D Allen for Tannehill/Ridley/Moss/Blackmon/Dreessen/D upgrades. Interested to see how that choice pans out for me.

 

[Marauder]

Question for those who emphasize uniqueness in this contest:If I'm completely unique with 3 of the 6 most-owned PK's and 2 of the 6 most-owned D's, why do I need to worry about uniqueness for the rest of my roster?It seems like it would be pretty darn hard to come up with a roster that's not unique, so I don't get why we need to strive for uniqueness in putting together rosters. I would think it's much more important to score higher, but maybe I'm missing something...

Certainly picking players who score higher points is more important than being unique and every team is unique enough to win but there are some advantages to a high uniqueness factor when you get down to the final 250. The way I look at it is this. If you have basically the same team as multiple other teams with only a few players different, you need those few specific players to get hot at the right time to win. If you have lots of players that are not commonly owned you only need some of those players to get hot at the right time.

 

[LHUCKS]

Updated sim. Survival probability is guaranteed accurate!!

#556

 

[LHUCKS]

IMHO, the slam dunk low dollar value plays were:BensonDwyerR. Brown (didn't roster him)AmendolaBlackmon

Agreed on Benson and Blackmon.I prefer Mendenhall to Dwyer, as I think he re-takes the starting role, especially later in the year when it counts more for this contest.I like Royster instead of Brown, even though it's hard to know what will happen with Shannahan. Since you don't have to choose when to start him, he's better in this format, and you should be able to get at least a couple of good weeks from him, and potentially much more, for $3. Brown is 31 now, while Royster's only 25.I think Simpson has more upside than Amendola, and was discounted because of his 3-game suspension, which isn't a big deal in this contest. Simpson could break out this year as the co-WR1 for the Vikes. He's looked great in camp, and could open up that offense. He should have some games where he outscores Harvin.I'd add Carlson for $2 as a good, cheap TE that's flying under the radar. He's missed preseason, but should play this week. He was the Vikes' biggest FA signing, so they're designing their offense around the 2 TE sets with him and Rudolph. He probably won't put up huge #'s, but should outscore Rudolph some weeks.

I actually agree with most of that. I doubt Simpson jumps ahead of Harvin but I can see the upside in that situation. I don't really like Carlson...there are several 4$ TEs that have greater upside IMHO.

 

[Modog814]

Question for those who emphasize uniqueness in this contest:If I'm completely unique with 3 of the 6 most-owned PK's and 2 of the 6 most-owned D's, why do I need to worry about uniqueness for the rest of my roster?It seems like it would be pretty darn hard to come up with a roster that's not unique, so I don't get why we need to strive for uniqueness in putting together rosters. I would think it's much more important to score higher, but maybe I'm missing something...

Certainly picking players who score higher points is more important than being unique and every team is unique enough to win but there are some advantages to a high uniqueness factor when you get down to the final 250. The way I look at it is this. If you have basically the same team as multiple other teams with only a few players different, you need those few specific players to get hot at the right time to win. If you have lots of players that are not commonly owned you only need some of those players to get hot at the right time.

I don't know that I agree with this. I don't think it's that simple. But I don't have a solid argument against it right now...still thinking about it.

 

[Phil Elliott]

Normally I spend countless days with countless changes on this contest. This year I only did an initial entry and then tweaked it a couple times at the last minute to spread out the bye weeks,etc. Probably spent a little too much on QB and not enough on stud RB/WR's and ended up with more players than I wanted. Ended up going with lots of value/potential players. Initial SIM puts me at 187 pts week 1. Regardless, this is always a fun part of the season:

Matt Ryan QB $19

RGIII QB $17

Matt Schaub QB $13

Andrew Luck QB $11

Doug Martin RB $21

Reggie Bush RB $20

Rashard Jennings RB $9

Jonathan Dwyer RB $4

Lamar Miller RB RB $3

Cedric Benson RB $3

Antonio Brown WR $17

Torrey Smith WR $16

Pierre Garcon WR $14

Justin Blackmon WR $7

Preston Parker WR $3

Ryan Broyles WR $2

Jacob Tamme TE $13

Germaine Grisham TE $13

Kyle Rudolph TE $11

Heath Miller TE 7$

Jason Hanson K $4

Matt Bryant K $4

Matt Prater K $3

Lawrence Tynes K $3

Buffalo Bills DEF $5

Atlanta Falcons DEF $4

NY Jets DEF $4

 

[Ahmad Rashad]

Question for those who emphasize uniqueness in this contest:If I'm completely unique with 3 of the 6 most-owned PK's and 2 of the 6 most-owned D's, why do I need to worry about uniqueness for the rest of my roster?It seems like it would be pretty darn hard to come up with a roster that's not unique, so I don't get why we need to strive for uniqueness in putting together rosters. I would think it's much more important to score higher, but maybe I'm missing something...

Certainly picking players who score higher points is more important than being unique and every team is unique enough to win but there are some advantages to a high uniqueness factor when you get down to the final 250. The way I look at it is this. If you have basically the same team as multiple other teams with only a few players different, you need those few specific players to get hot at the right time to win. If you have lots of players that are not commonly owned you only need some of those players to get hot at the right time.

I don't know that I agree with this. I don't think it's that simple. But I don't have a solid argument against it right now...still thinking about it.

I would think even if I have the exact same team as multiple other finalists with only my PK/D's different, as long as my PK/D's outscore theirs, I should be good. Chances are, if multiple other finalists have the same team as I do, that team must be awfully strong.

 

[[icon]]

Matthew Stafford $26

Andrew Luck $11

Stafford is a pimp with an early bye week. Luck is good enough he might contribute a few weeks as well as having a sick matchup on Matt's off day.

Doug Martin $21

Reggie Bush $20

Stevan Ridley $16

David Wilson $9

Rashard Mendenhall $4

Cedric Benson $3

Evan Royster $3

Martin is gonna be stout value. Bush as well. Ridley should hold onto the job in NE and will have several big weeks where his number is more than good enough to count. Wilson takes teh job by midseason... Mendy looks to be back and reasonably good to go. At $4, hell yes. Benson and Royster are lottery tickets that should pay off a couple times.

A.J. Green $22

Percy Harvin $20

Dwayne Bowe $17

Pierre Garcon $14

Mike Williams $11

Justin Blackmon $7

AJ/Harvin/ Bowe / Garcon are 4 Wideouts I like a lot this year. Williams provides a buffer and Blackmon is a fun lottery ticket. I always wanted to own a Blackmon.

Aaron Hernandez $23

Kyle Rudolph $11

I think Hernandez spends some time at WR this year (esp with Branch departing)... and with Gronk possibly having to stay in to block I think he provides exceptional value here. Rudolph is one of my favorite TE "Sleepers" this year. It was between him and Keller... both of which I love in PPR.

Matt Prater $3

Mike Nugent $3

These guys are on rosters.

Cincinnati Bengals $3

New Orleans Saints $3

These teams have defenses.

 

[massraider]

I think you can win this one of two ways, by taking some calculated chances, or getting very lucky. I chose to take chances.

Cam Newton $28

Ryan Fitzpatrick $11

I am relying on two things here: That FBG groupthink keeps Cam from being heavily owned, and that Fitzpatrick continues flying under the radar. Fitz playing half the season with cracked ribs makes him a nice value this year, IMO. I did like Luck at the same price, but I figure his own% will be very high, for a guy that I am not sure will put up numbers that Fitz already has. Newton will continue to be underrated by FBGs that hated him in college, hate him now, and are pissed they didn't see him coming. That's my only explanation for the doubting for a guy that has dominated at every level, anytime someone hands him a football. Looking forward to seeing him play after actually having a training camp!

Darren McFadden $26

Doug Martin $21

Ryan Williams $12

Alex Green $6

Cedric Benson $3

Evan Royster $3

The riskiest part of my team. DMC won't be heavily owned, Martin probably will. I am not looking to separate myself from the pack at RB, just to get points every week. If DMC makes it through the season, I am competitive. I like Martin's price, and his division, and his O-line. Getting the top two backs (I think....) in Green Bay for $9 seemed like a no brainer, I expect this to be two heavily owned players. Royster, in best ball, for $3?? Yes, please. Any fantasy owner that has owned Beanie Wells should take a hard look at Ryan Williams. Crappy offense, but it was crappy last year, and Beanie had numbers. Williams simply has to have more heart than Wells, and I know he is faster.

Percy Harvin $20

Steve Johnson $18

Pierre Garcon $14

Kenny Britt $13

Jonathan Baldwin $4

Donald Jones $4

Lestar Jean $3

Kevin Ogletree $3

Josh Gordon $3

I had Calvin in every team until the last week or so, and I think he'll be a stud. But I really think owning Calvin lowers your margin for error at the rest of your WRs, and in a best ball format, I think quantity at WR in some form is really important. I am hoping Britt isn't that heavily owned, but I expect him to be. The exact sort of player, along with Garcon, that you want to have in best ball. Harvin and Stevie are both nice prices, with great floors and nice ceilings.

Jimmy Graham $29

Dallas Clark $7

You can take Grahams cost, divide it up however you want among the remaining TEs, and I can't imagine beating him more than 3 or 4 times all year. Would have loved Olsen as backup, but same bye week, and really, how many weeks would he outscore Graham? Rather have a cheaper TE, and be able to add Jon Baldwin.

Alex Henery $4

Rob Bironas $3

Matt Prater $3

Three kickers and defenses is a must.

New York Giants $5

Oakland Raiders $4

Cincinnati Bengals $3

Three kickers and defenses is a must.

 

[Modog814]

Question for those who emphasize uniqueness in this contest:If I'm completely unique with 3 of the 6 most-owned PK's and 2 of the 6 most-owned D's, why do I need to worry about uniqueness for the rest of my roster?It seems like it would be pretty darn hard to come up with a roster that's not unique, so I don't get why we need to strive for uniqueness in putting together rosters. I would think it's much more important to score higher, but maybe I'm missing something...

Certainly picking players who score higher points is more important than being unique and every team is unique enough to win but there are some advantages to a high uniqueness factor when you get down to the final 250. The way I look at it is this. If you have basically the same team as multiple other teams with only a few players different, you need those few specific players to get hot at the right time to win. If you have lots of players that are not commonly owned you only need some of those players to get hot at the right time.

I don't know that I agree with this. I don't think it's that simple. But I don't have a solid argument against it right now...still thinking about it.

I would think even if I have the exact same team as multiple other finalists with only my PK/D's different, as long as my PK/D's outscore theirs, I should be good. Chances are, if multiple other finalists have the same team as I do, that team must be awfully strong.

My initial thought is that for a team to be unique compared to another (or a group) it must not have someone that is common. If that player is common for the top 250 teams, it probably means he's a "stud" for the year. So if that player, whose played well that whole season continues to play well in the final 3 weeks, the unique team is behind the 8 ball. So they'd need their unique player to hit to keep up. Of course, if the common player falters, then the unique team has an advantage, but it works both ways, if the unique player falters, then the unique team is at a disadvantage. I guess, what I'm saying is that I don't think uniqueness is that critical because it can work for you or against you. It comes down to once again, having the right players.

 

[Ahmad Rashad]

IMHO, the slam dunk low dollar value plays were:BensonDwyerR. Brown (didn't roster him)AmendolaBlackmon

Agreed on Benson and Blackmon.I prefer Mendenhall to Dwyer, as I think he re-takes the starting role, especially later in the year when it counts more for this contest.I like Royster instead of Brown, even though it's hard to know what will happen with Shannahan. Since you don't have to choose when to start him, he's better in this format, and you should be able to get at least a couple of good weeks from him, and potentially much more, for $3. Brown is 31 now, while Royster's only 25.I think Simpson has more upside than Amendola, and was discounted because of his 3-game suspension, which isn't a big deal in this contest. Simpson could break out this year as the co-WR1 for the Vikes. He's looked great in camp, and could open up that offense. He should have some games where he outscores Harvin.I'd add Carlson for $2 as a good, cheap TE that's flying under the radar. He's missed preseason, but should play this week. He was the Vikes' biggest FA signing, so they're designing their offense around the 2 TE sets with him and Rudolph. He probably won't put up huge #'s, but should outscore Rudolph some weeks.

I actually agree with most of that. I doubt Simpson jumps ahead of Harvin but I can see the upside in that situation. I don't really like Carlson...there are several 4$ TEs that have greater upside IMHO.

I don't think Simpson jumps ahead of Harvin ($20) overall, but I do think he will have some weeks when he'll outscore him, which is valuable in this format. There may be $4 TE's with greater upside, but they cost twice as much as $2 Carlson, and I won't want to spend much for a backup to a TE like Graham. I thought about going for a 2nd stud TE like Hernandez, but I'd rather have my depth across positions fill the flex spot rather than kind of forcing it to my 2nd TE and having the good performances from my depth go to waste (e.g., when Benson or Blackmon or Simpson have a big game).I forgot to mention that Royal was another good cheapie with upside at $2 (didn't roster him). An extra $2 can make a big difference...

 

[ffrookie]

For better or worse this is what I got:

QB-

Matt Ryan $19

Jake Locker $9

Both high upside guys who I really like this year

RB-

Steven Jackson $22

Kevin Smith $12

David Wilson $9

Kendall Hunter $6

Shane Vereen $6

Alex Green $6

Jonathan Dwyer $4

Cedric Benson $3

Ronnie Brown $2

WR-

Julio Jones $23

Hakeem Nicks $21

Percy Harvin $20

Mike Wallace $16

Jerome Simpson $7

Kendall Wright $6

Danny Amendola $6

Devery Henderson $4

Eddie Royal $2

TE-

Kyle Rudolph $11

Greg Olsen $11

Dwayne Allen $2

K-

David Akers $6

Matt Prater $3

Greg Zuerlein $3

DEF-

Texans $5

Browns $3

Dolphins $3

Overall, I like my team. I spent a little more at WR then other positions since you have to start 3.

 

[massraider]

My initial thought is that for a team to be unique compared to another (or a group) it must not have someone that is common. If that player is common for the top 250 teams, it probably means he's a "stud" for the year. So if that player, whose played well that whole season continues to play well in the final 3 weeks, the unique team is behind the 8 ball. So they'd need their unique player to hit to keep up. Of course, if the common player falters, then the unique team has an advantage, but it works both ways, if the unique player falters, then the unique team is at a disadvantage. I guess, what I'm saying is that I don't think uniqueness is that critical because it can work for you or against you. It comes down to once again, having the right players.

It does come down to having the right players. But when it comes to the final 250, everyone has chosen the right players. That is when uniqueness comes into play. It really doesn't work both ways, because if the common player does well, he's doing it for a ton of teams, thus making him irrelevant. He'll never be the difference in advancing. Whereas if the unique player does well, it is a big advantage. Everyone is going to have Ced Benson, he's never going to be the reason someone wins the big money.

 

[Ahmad Rashad]

Question for those who emphasize uniqueness in this contest:If I'm completely unique with 3 of the 6 most-owned PK's and 2 of the 6 most-owned D's, why do I need to worry about uniqueness for the rest of my roster?It seems like it would be pretty darn hard to come up with a roster that's not unique, so I don't get why we need to strive for uniqueness in putting together rosters. I would think it's much more important to score higher, but maybe I'm missing something...

Certainly picking players who score higher points is more important than being unique and every team is unique enough to win but there are some advantages to a high uniqueness factor when you get down to the final 250. The way I look at it is this. If you have basically the same team as multiple other teams with only a few players different, you need those few specific players to get hot at the right time to win. If you have lots of players that are not commonly owned you only need some of those players to get hot at the right time.

I don't know that I agree with this. I don't think it's that simple. But I don't have a solid argument against it right now...still thinking about it.

I would think even if I have the exact same team as multiple other finalists with only my PK/D's different, as long as my PK/D's outscore theirs, I should be good. Chances are, if multiple other finalists have the same team as I do, that team must be awfully strong.

My initial thought is that for a team to be unique compared to another (or a group) it must not have someone that is common. If that player is common for the top 250 teams, it probably means he's a "stud" for the year. So if that player, whose played well that whole season continues to play well in the final 3 weeks, the unique team is behind the 8 ball. So they'd need their unique player to hit to keep up. Of course, if the common player falters, then the unique team has an advantage, but it works both ways, if the unique player falters, then the unique team is at a disadvantage. I guess, what I'm saying is that I don't think uniqueness is that critical because it can work for you or against you. It comes down to once again, having the right players.

Agree. I don't get why everyone wants to avoid the heavily-owned players.Let's say there are 2 QB's, QB A and QB B, that score the exact same amount, way more than every other QB. Everyone in the league has QB A except you, who have found QB B at the same cost.When QB A has a great week and QB B has a down week, you'll have a hard time making the cut. When QB A has a down week and QB B has a great week, you should make the cut, but so should the QB A owners who have a good team. During QB A's bye week, those QB A owners who have a strong roster should survive, whereas during QB B's bye week, you're screwed.In this scenario, I see it as a big disadvantage to own the under-owned QB B, even though he scores the exact same amount as QB A for the same price. The only way I see it as an advantage is if QB B far outscores QB A.Using real players, I picked Aaron Rodgers, hoping a lot of others would pick him, too. I thought he would outscore the rest of the QB's, and if many others had him, it would make it easier for me to survive his week 10 bye, as the cut would be lower and none of my other studs have that bye week. If I were the only one with Rodgers, I'd be more worried about surviving his bye week.Maybe if you make the playoffs and QB B outscores QB A you'll be better off, but if QB A outscores QB B, you're done.What am I missing?

 

[flc735]

One guy I am really shocked about the low ownership on is Davone Bess.

Not enough upside...to win you need guys that can throw up points in bundles...not guys that consistently get you 12 points.

Actually you need a combination of both. Sure, Bess (or Amendola) is not going to win you the contest in the playoff weeks. But guys like him can be very instrumental in making sure you make the cuts when you have guys on bye or your studs have an off week.

The argument for Bess is even though Miami could be terrible this year, someone has to catch the football there. Seems like defenses will gang up to stop Bush and Thomas, so Bess should get a decent amount of targets.

i didnt take either but i think legadu nenee at $3 is the better buy based on that

 

[ShutdownStranger80]

I think you can win this one of two ways, by taking some calculated chances, or getting very lucky. I chose to take chances.

Cam Newton $28

Ryan Fitzpatrick $11

I am relying on two things here: That FBG groupthink keeps Cam from being heavily owned, and that Fitzpatrick continues flying under the radar. Fitz playing half the season with cracked ribs makes him a nice value this year, IMO. I did like Luck at the same price, but I figure his own% will be very high, for a guy that I am not sure will put up numbers that Fitz already has. Newton will continue to be underrated by FBGs that hated him in college, hate him now, and are pissed they didn't see him coming. That's my only explanation for the doubting for a guy that has dominated at every level, anytime someone hands him a football. Looking forward to seeing him play after actually having a training camp!

Darren McFadden $26

Doug Martin $21

Ryan Williams $12

Alex Green $6

Cedric Benson $3

Evan Royster $3

I wanted these 2 guys as well.. but they have the same bye week which I didn't want to deal with so took CJ2K instead of DMC.. absolutely love Doug Martin this year.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Alex Henery $4 Rob Bironas $3 Matt Prater $3Three kickers and defenses is a must.New York Giants $5 Oakland Raiders $4 Cincinnati Bengals $3Three kickers and defenses is a must.

Adam Vinatieri $3 Matt Prater $3 Rian Lindell $3 Jacksonville Jaguars $3 Carolina Panthers $3 Washington Redskins $3

You need to go 3/3 here IMHO.

Last four champions:

Year	K	D2008	2	22009	3	32010	2	22011	2	2

 

[eaglezzz]

A lot of people own Mark Ingram.......... I mean Doug Martin this year