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***Official*** 2012 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (1 Viewer)

'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
I'm all set up to provide relatively real-time updates to the cutline throughout tonight's game. I'll probably post an update once or twice per quarter.
Thank you. I appreciate that in spite of the fact that you are convinced you will be out, you will provide the updates.
Well, honestly, the main reason I'm going to all the effort is for selfish reasons. I'm still holding out hope for a miracle tonight. :)But alive or not, I'll still be in the thread for the rest of the season, posting all the usual weekly updates and stuff. The contest discussion is one of my favorite things of the year.
 
Anatomy of a mid-season elimination:

Code:
Player                        	Score	NoteMatthew Stafford              	0	Ryan Tannehill                	0	<--- On byeRay Rice                      	10.4	<--- Lowest point total of the yearDeMarco Murray                	0	<--- Injured, did not playDavid Wilson                  	0	<--- Lowest point total of the yearRashard Mendenhall            	0	<--- Injured, did not playCedric Benson                 	0	<--- Injured, did not playEvan Royster                  	1	<--- Lowest point total of the yearEric Decker                   	0	<--- On byeTorrey Smith                  	8.1	<--- Had been averaging 14.3 PPGReggie Wayne                  	13.3	<--- Lowest point total of the yearMichael Crabtree              	7.1	<--- Had been averaging 11.7 PPGTitus Young                   	0	Justin Blackmon               	1.7	<--- SucksDanny Amendola                	0	<--- Injured, did not playEddie Royal                   	0	<--- On byeJimmy Graham                  	0	<--- Injured, did not playTony Gonzalez                 	0	<--- On byeMartellus Bennett             	15.4	<--- Good showingRobbie Gould                  	0	Shaun Suisham                 	16	<--- Good showingNew York Jets                 	3	<--- Had been averaging 9.2 PPGSeattle Seahawks              	4	<--- Lowest point total of the year
 
Safe at 135 with Marshall (-6.5) and Bears Def/ST (-8) to go. Josh Gordon continues to count for me. Wonder how long that lasts.

 
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
I'm all set up to provide relatively real-time updates to the cutline throughout tonight's game. I'll probably post an update once or twice per quarter.
Thank you. I appreciate that in spite of the fact that you are convinced you will be out, you will provide the updates.
Well, honestly, the main reason I'm going to all the effort is for selfish reasons. I'm still holding out hope for a miracle tonight. :)But alive or not, I'll still be in the thread for the rest of the season, posting all the usual weekly updates and stuff. The contest discussion is one of my favorite things of the year.
It is certainly possible that Stafford will go off for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns, which is 33 points. Titus Youngscored 19 points one week. If he gets a touchdown and 90 yards, that's 15 points. That would put you a little over120. But the question is how much that raises the cut line because there are a lot of owners with those players.Good luck.
 
2 big bye week hurdles left with Rice and Rodgers sitting out. Would love to still be around week 11. Keep it up Josh Gordon!!!

 
106.7 with Gould -10. I had several byes this week, including no quarterback, but probably still would have made it if Mendenhall had played. Live and learn. And try again next year.

 
Code:
Player                        	Score	NoteJustin Blackmon               	1.7	<--- Sucks
:lmao:
It's funny because it's true. He's the only player who hasn't contributed to my team aside from Driver. Actually everyone else has contributed at least twice.I appear to be fine to advance thanks in no small part to my BFF Greg Little's 17.20 and LaFell's 15.3. I would like to claim some sort of skill in advancing but that would just be a lie. 32.5 from those 2 is about as unlikely as Indy beating GB.
 
Player counts for tonight - please note anyone I missed.

A total of 9673 mangames for 5013 roosters - about 1.93 players per rooster.

Stafford 435

Leshoure 478

K Smith 326

Burleson 77

T Young 841

Calvin 1530

Pettigrew 550

Scheffler 107

J Hanson 977

Detroit 130

Broyles 151 he of the no stats for the entire year

Cutler 358

Forte 195

M Bush 337

D Hester 187

Marshall 892

A Jeffrey 351

K Davis 142

E Bennett 64

Gould 1198

Chic 347

-QG

 
I'm at 126.9 with Marshall/Gould/Pettigrew so I'm probably okay. I expected a relatively easy pass for my team this week.

Bengals defense finally kicked in, so only Royal, McCluster, and Chiefs D/ST have not counted for me, though each scored at least one 10+ week.

 
Player counts for tonight - please note anyone I missed.A total of 9673 mangames for 5013 roosters - about 1.93 players per rooster.Stafford 435Leshoure 478K Smith 326Burleson 77T Young 841Calvin 1530Pettigrew 550Scheffler 107J Hanson 977Detroit 130Broyles 151 he of the no stats for the entire yearCutler 358Forte 195M Bush 337D Hester 187Marshall 892A Jeffrey 351K Davis 142E Bennett 64Gould 1198Chic 347-QG
Is there any way to merge these numbers with how many are on teams above and below the cutline?Signed, guy hoping that most Marshall teams are already above the cutline, so the 30 point showing he's going to need to put up tonight doesn't move the line too much...
 
Sitting at 90.6 with C Johnson(-2.4), Marshall(-1.7) and Hanson(0) left so all 3 should count. Not sure it will be enough. Having Chris Johnson blow up was negated by Graham out with injury and Dreessen on bye. First year I went small roster(20) and last time I will have one less than 25.

 
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Player counts for tonight - please note anyone I missed.A total of 9673 mangames for 5013 roosters - about 1.93 players per rooster.Stafford 435Leshoure 478K Smith 326Burleson 77T Young 841Calvin 1530Pettigrew 550Scheffler 107J Hanson 977Detroit 130Broyles 151 he of the no stats for the entire yearCutler 358Forte 195M Bush 337D Hester 187Marshall 892A Jeffrey 351K Davis 142E Bennett 64Gould 1198Chic 347-QG
Is there any way to merge these numbers with how many are on teams above and below the cutline?Signed, guy hoping that most Marshall teams are already above the cutline, so the 30 point showing he's going to need to put up tonight doesn't move the line too much...
That goes to wiser folks than me, I just go through the querier to find out how many are left. I would think the bigger geniuses in here like Iggy would know :) -QG
 
Evan Royster is now the only player on my 22 man roster yet to count for me.

This may change next week with Foster on his bye.

Feeling happy with 169.15 Calvin -6.7

 
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Player counts for tonight - please note anyone I missed.A total of 9673 mangames for 5013 roosters - about 1.93 players per rooster.Stafford 435Leshoure 478K Smith 326Burleson 77T Young 841Calvin 1530Pettigrew 550Scheffler 107J Hanson 977Detroit 130Broyles 151 he of the no stats for the entire yearCutler 358Forte 195M Bush 337D Hester 187Marshall 892A Jeffrey 351K Davis 142E Bennett 64Gould 1198Chic 347-QG
Is there any way to merge these numbers with how many are on teams above and below the cutline?Signed, guy hoping that most Marshall teams are already above the cutline, so the 30 point showing he's going to need to put up tonight doesn't move the line too much...
That goes to wiser folks than me, I just go through the querier to find out how many are left. I would think the bigger geniuses in here like Iggy would know :) -QG
I had planned to do this earlier today but didn't get around to it. I may run it quickly at some point before the game starts.
 
In years past how successful were the power rankings in predicting the final few?

Is this a feature that comes later in the year...jog or slap my memory for me?

 
Somehow my terrible team is coasting through this week despite having Matty Ice on bye.

I suppose having Josh Freeman as my 2nd QB was a good choice.

Kept things relatively balanced bye-wise this season.

I'm feeling good if I manage to survive next week as Foster will be on bye and none of my other RBs have stepped up.

Fully expect to get bounced in Week 8 with only Hillis, Royster, Hunter and the non-existent Taiwan Jones available to give me RB points.

None of my other positions have byes next week so there's a chance I could survive if a few guys go off.

 
Player counts for tonight - please note anyone I missed.

A total of 9673 mangames for 5013 roosters - about 1.93 players per rooster.

Stafford 435

Leshoure 478

K Smith 326 Inactive (and another nail in my entry's coffin)

Burleson 77

T Young 841

Calvin 1530

Pettigrew 550

Scheffler 107

J Hanson 977

Detroit 130

Broyles 151 he of the no stats for the entire year

Cutler 358

Forte 195

M Bush 337

D Hester 187

Marshall 892

A Jeffrey 351 Inactive

K Davis 142

E Bennett 64

Gould 1198

Chic 347

-QG
 
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I have what I think is a pretty cool table showing the impact to the cut line of each player's production tonight. Unfortunately the wifi doesn't seem to be working in the building I'm in right now so I can post it (I'm writing this from my phone). I should be home around the time the game starts and will post it then. Unsurprisingly, the results line up closely with the ownership numbers QG posted above. Calvin will have the biggest impact on the cut line.

 
Player counts for tonight - please note anyone I missed.A total of 9673 mangames for 5013 roosters - about 1.93 players per rooster.Stafford 435Leshoure 478K Smith 326Burleson 77T Young 841Calvin 1530Pettigrew 550Scheffler 107J Hanson 977Detroit 130Broyles 151 he of the no stats for the entire yearCutler 358Forte 195M Bush 337D Hester 187Marshall 892A Jeffrey 351K Davis 142E Bennett 64Gould 1198Chic 347-QG
I laugh every time I see "rooster". Thanks guys.
 
I'm being selfish here....but I'm kind of rooting for a 5 catch 90 yard night from Calvin....or 9 catch 50 yards.....or 3 catch 50 yards with a TD. Just enough to put me over the cut line and thin the Calvin herd a little.

I know I shouldn't post this....karma is going to bite me in the ####. Don't do it...don't be stupid....ah look....I'm stupid.

 
I'm being selfish here...but I'm kinda rooting for a 1 catch for -13 yard night from Calvin ;) and a 15 catch 230 yard 3 TD night from...well I was gonna say Titus Young but if I'm in fantasy-mode I might as well say Broyles ;)

-QG

 
This table shows how much the cutline will increase if each player scores X number of points, with X going across to top in 5-point intervals. So for example, if Jay Cutler scores 15 points tonight, the cutline will move up 0.45 points.

I don't think these can simply be combined additively - for example if Cutler and Stafford both score 20 points each, the cutline won't necessarily increase 0.55 + 0.75 = 1.30 points, because it's possible some teams have both Cutler and Stafford, so their combined impact will be mitigated in that case. But anyway, it should give you a good idea of the relative impact each of tonight's players can have:

Code:
PLAYER                   	5	10	15	20	25	30	35	40Jay Cutler               	0.10	0.30	0.45	0.55	0.65	0.75	0.95	1.15Matthew Stafford         	0.15	0.35	0.55	0.75	0.95	1.45	1.85	2.30Matt Forte               	0.05	0.30	0.40	0.55	0.55	0.65	0.75	0.80Michael Bush             	0.30	0.45	0.80	1.05	1.25	1.30	1.40	1.40Kevin Smith              	0.20	0.45	0.70	0.80	0.95	1.10	1.20	1.30Mikel Leshoure           	0.25	0.55	1.00	1.40	1.65	1.75	1.85	2.00Jahvid Best              	0.00	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.10	0.15	0.15	0.15Brandon Marshall         	0.65	1.50	2.40	3.45	4.15	4.70	5.15	5.65Alshon Jeffery           	0.25	0.40	0.65	0.70	0.90	0.95	1.00	1.05Earl Bennett             	0.05	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.25	0.25	0.30	0.30Devin Hester             	0.05	0.05	0.30	0.35	0.40	0.40	0.45	0.55Calvin Johnson           	0.95	2.60	4.00	5.60	6.85	7.65	8.50	8.90Titus Young              	0.55	1.25	1.85	2.55	3.05	3.15	3.45	3.55Nate Burleson            	0.05	0.05	0.15	0.20	0.25	0.30	0.30	0.30Ryan Broyles             	0.15	0.35	0.40	0.45	0.55	0.55	0.55	0.55Kellen Davis             	0.05	0.15	0.30	0.35	0.40	0.45	0.45	0.50Brandon Pettigrew        	0.35	0.70	1.00	1.45	1.65	1.80	1.95	2.10Tony Scheffler           	0.05	0.15	0.30	0.30	0.35	0.35	0.35	0.40Robbie Gould             	0.45	1.30	2.35	3.15	3.95	4.55	5.15	5.60Jason Hanson             	0.55	1.00	2.25	3.15	3.50	4.05	4.50	4.70Chicago Bears            	0.10	0.40	0.55	0.75	0.95	1.15	1.20	1.30Detroit Lions            	0.00	0.10	0.30	0.35	0.35	0.35	0.40	0.40
 
HAIRY - Given your list of choices I would vote for #1. That would help my CDM team a lot more than #3 and #2 is just poison.

 
If I am reading correctly the combined effect of Kevin Smith, Jahvid Best, and Alshon Jeffery won't change the cutline at all.

 
Something weird about the live scoring. This morning it showed the scores for the players in the Seahawks/49ers game. Tonight those players show 0 points.

 
If I am reading correctly the combined effect of Kevin Smith, Jahvid Best, and Alshon Jeffery won't change the cutline at all.
The table I posted didn't account for the fact that those guys aren't playing. IF they played tonight, I showed the impact their points would have. But obviously if they're out they will score 0 points and have 0 impact on the cutline.
 
I am at 124 with a couple of people playing tonight.

Based on what I see, the cut line will remain low. If that is the case, I will survive what should have been my worst week.

I was out in week 3 or 4 last year so I am pretty excited to still be in this thing.

I think I like this contest more than I like regular fantasy football. Would love to be in several of these leagues/contests.

 
If they would just GO TO PETTIGREW in the red zone, they wouldn't keep turning it over. Also, I could sleep better tonight. :football:

 

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