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Official 2016 GOP thread: Is it really going to be Donald Trump?? (3 Viewers)

What do you mean "do the same thing"? You're suggesting the GOP will offer to tweak ACAbut not remove it? That's not what I'm reading. I don't think their base will accept anything short of a full repeal.
"Repeal and replace" has been the expression for some time now, however I'm guessing they could leave out the "repeal" aspect and focus on the unpopular parts, though be more specific than Hillary, ie the taxes, the mandate, the keep your plan/physician' aspects. Obviously there are 17 candidates out there so this will vary, some will keep echoing "repeal" repeatedly.
"we will give you all of the benefits with none of the cost"
It was at Hillary's appearance at Akin Gump, the law/lobbyist firm that specializes in health care corporate clients, where she discussed "keeping but revising" the ACA. I guess she will be just as willing to save their (her) clients the costs of paying for it as well. Pick your euphemism.
OK, but until a GOP candidate can express a plan that the majority of Americans can back it is just bluster that appeals to 40% of Americans and in practice will cause far more harm than help.
I was just thinking that an energetic attack on Obamacare might engender an unexpected outcome -- what happens if they discover that a growing majority of the electorate is increasingly sympathetic to an ever more advanced version (UHC) of it instead? Oops.

 
What do you mean "do the same thing"? You're suggesting the GOP will offer to tweak ACAbut not remove it? That's not what I'm reading. I don't think their base will accept anything short of a full repeal.
"Repeal and replace" has been the expression for some time now, however I'm guessing they could leave out the "repeal" aspect and focus on the unpopular parts, though be more specific than Hillary, ie the taxes, the mandate, the keep your plan/physician' aspects. Obviously there are 17 candidates out there so this will vary, some will keep echoing "repeal" repeatedly.
"we will give you all of the benefits with none of the cost"
It was at Hillary's appearance at Akin Gump, the law/lobbyist firm that specializes in health care corporate clients, where she discussed "keeping but revising" the ACA. I guess she will be just as willing to save their (her) clients the costs of paying for it as well. Pick your euphemism.
OK, but until a GOP candidate can express a plan that the majority of Americans can back it is just bluster that appeals to 40% of Americans and in practice will cause far more harm than help.
According to RealClearPolitics, 51% of Americans are against it. I'm not sure if they're accurate though.

But it's really time to drop the repeal stuff, it's not going to happen. The focus needs to be on improvement.

 
I don't get why "repeal and replace" is a better sound bite than "fix". Why not this for a stump speech sound bite?

"The ACA attempted to provide affordable, accessible health care for all, but it's broken in many ways. When I'm President, we'll fix the ACA to make it affordable for regular families."

Edit: In this post, I'm not considering the actual policy in any way, just the politics/sound bites.

 
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I don't get why "repeal and replace" is a better sound bite than "fix". Why not this for a stump speech sound bite?

"The ACA attempted to provide affordable, accessible health care for all, but it's broken in many ways. When I'm President, we'll fix the ACA to make it affordable for regular families."

Edit: In this post, I'm not considering the actual policy in any way, just the politics/sound bites.
IMO, messaging wont change until Republicans stop running against Obama in late 2018. after those mid terms fixing messaging becomes an option.

 
This group is hopeless until they can resist falling for the same trick every single time.

Every. Single. Time.

 
Chris Christie jumping into the ring as I write this.

The favorite from two years ago is garnering somewhere around 35% approval in New Jersey. The state's credit rating was downgraded in April for the ninth time since he took office. What he is expecting to get from this race is a mystery.

One of his daughters is mildly attractive though. She looks disinterested.
http://mic.com/articles/119530/the-real-reason-so-many-republicans-are-running-for-president-nbsp

http://www.post-gazette.com/opinion/samantha-bennett/2011/12/15/Get-rich-by-running-for-president/stories/201112150292

 
What do you mean "do the same thing"? You're suggesting the GOP will offer to tweak ACAbut not remove it? That's not what I'm reading. I don't think their base will accept anything short of a full repeal.
"Repeal and replace" has been the expression for some time now, however I'm guessing they could leave out the "repeal" aspect and focus on the unpopular parts, though be more specific than Hillary, ie the taxes, the mandate, the keep your plan/physician' aspects. Obviously there are 17 candidates out there so this will vary, some will keep echoing "repeal" repeatedly.
"we will give you all of the benefits with none of the cost"
That's the elephant in the room. Any replacement will be either woefully inadequate, a huge budget buster, or will bear a striking resemblance to Obamacare. They've went with option four, "we've got a totally awesome patient centered plan and you're gonna love it when you see it......later.....much later. They'll get hounded on details as the campaign progresses. It is a problem they can get by in the primaries but can't solve in the general.

 
Chris Christie jumping into the ring as I write this.

The favorite from two years ago is garnering somewhere around 35% approval in New Jersey. The state's credit rating was downgraded in April for the ninth time since he took office. What he is expecting to get from this race is a mystery.

One of his daughters is mildly attractive though. She looks disinterested.
Christie feels he can be the moderate alternative in a very crowded and fractured field.

 
But the question for this thread is not about the practicality of actually getting ACA repealed, but whether or not it's a good thing for the GOP to focus on. And of course that goes back to the bigger issue I raised early on in this thread: do they run against Obama or against Hillary?
It's going to depend on where ACA goes financially. They are already taking away the medical device tax (or at least it's in the works). The gov't is going to have to fund this thing somehow. "Affordable" is a legit point of contention with all the reports coming out. IMO, if this thing isn't changed in any substantial way and is just allowed to "be" for a while, folks aren't going to be happy with it. However, the real affects of doing this will probably need to be extended over the next 2-3 years and I doubt law makers will keep their hands out of it for political reasons.

 
Chris Christie jumping into the ring as I write this.

The favorite from two years ago is garnering somewhere around 35% approval in New Jersey. The state's credit rating was downgraded in April for the ninth time since he took office. What he is expecting to get from this race is a mystery.

One of his daughters is mildly attractive though. She looks disinterested.
Christie feels he can be the moderate alternative in a very crowded and fractured field. elephant in the room
Fyp

 
But the question for this thread is not about the practicality of actually getting ACA repealed, but whether or not it's a good thing for the GOP to focus on. And of course that goes back to the bigger issue I raised early on in this thread: do they run against Obama or against Hillary?
It's going to depend on where ACA goes financially. They are already taking away the medical device tax (or at least it's in the works). The gov't is going to have to fund this thing somehow. "Affordable" is a legit point of contention with all the reports coming out. IMO, if this thing isn't changed in any substantial way and is just allowed to "be" for a while, folks aren't going to be happy with it. However, the real affects of doing this will probably need to be extended over the next 2-3 years and I doubt law makers will keep their hands out of it for political reasons.
The mandate tax is also unpopular, as is the growing cost of premiums, higher deductibles, and OOP costs. I also don't know if the administration ever reimposed the minimum standards which threw everyone off their plans. My guess is they focus on those elements, if anything. Hillary will be "keeping but revising" the ACA, they can just as well wait to make a deal in any event, but it's true they will need a coherent campaign platform on this from their nominee,

 
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I don't get why "repeal and replace" is a better sound bite than "fix". Why not this for a stump speech sound bite?

"The ACA attempted to provide affordable, accessible health care for all, but it's broken in many ways. When I'm President, we'll fix the ACA to make it affordable for regular families."

Edit: In this post, I'm not considering the actual policy in any way, just the politics/sound bites.
they created the label "obamacare" and will keep using it as long as possible. by adopting "ACA" into the common GOP lexicon would imply some support for it.

 
What do you mean "do the same thing"? You're suggesting the GOP will offer to tweak ACAbut not remove it? That's not what I'm reading. I don't think their base will accept anything short of a full repeal.
"Repeal and replace" has been the expression for some time now, however I'm guessing they could leave out the "repeal" aspect and focus on the unpopular parts, though be more specific than Hillary, ie the taxes, the mandate, the keep your plan/physician' aspects. Obviously there are 17 candidates out there so this will vary, some will keep echoing "repeal" repeatedly.
"we will give you all of the benefits with none of the cost"
That's the elephant in the room. Any replacement will be either woefully inadequate, a huge budget buster, or will bear a striking resemblance to Obamacare. They've went with option four, "we've got a totally awesome patient centered plan and you're gonna love it when you see it......later.....much later. They'll get hounded on details as the campaign progresses. It is a problem they can get by in the primaries but can't solve in the general.
Which is EXACTLY what you get with Obamacare.

 
Chris Christie jumping into the ring as I write this.

The favorite from two years ago is garnering somewhere around 35% approval in New Jersey. The state's credit rating was downgraded in April for the ninth time since he took office. What he is expecting to get from this race is a mystery.

One of his daughters is mildly attractive though. She looks disinterested.
Christie feels he can be the moderate alternative in a very crowded and fractured field.
I wish he hadn't imploded. Would have liked to see him in the race as a legitimate candidate and a potential alternative to "hold your nose and vote for Hillary."

 
I do have to wonder, though. What does Christie offer the left in terms of a general election? Would he garner the necessary votes in California and other states like Florida that a moderate would need in order to defeat Clinton? And would anybody from the left have voted for him, or is he just a more palatable candidate to listen to for a few months? Christie is a public union buster, a nationalist, a power-centralizing centrist (not redundant), and a federal guy, but does that really win an election for the GOP?

Or is this the typical lament from the left that it would be nice if the Republicans ran a moderate for agreeability's sake?

 
You're overstating the case and speaking for him amd Webb, who btw is not a Lost Causer by any stretch. People to the left of him have pointed out how the tear down the flag frenzy is cathartic but unproductive. Webb is also from Virginia. The only other Dem candidate who has ever had to live in a place with this issue is guess who, Hillary Clinton. Has she called for any flag display or memorial to come down in AR, has she ever? No, not once. Bill Clinton actually signed a bill commemorating the confederacy, who else in the race R or D can say that? Yes Hillary = Bill as long as she puts her presence in his administrations on her bio as anything more than envelope licking and menu creation.

 
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It's time for new rules. American style of course.

Everyone (18 now?) who wants the GOP nomination has to compete in:

1. Home Run contest at Nationals Park - bottom 2 are eliminated

2. Spelling bee - first 5 wrong are out

3. American citizenship test - lowest 3 scores eliminated

4. EAch has to prepare for filing a simple tax return for a single mother with 2 kids within 2 hours. 3 worst returns get eliminated

The final 5 have to compete in a Jeopardy like challenge of question and answer about American history, politics, policy, etc. Top 4 move on to the real debate.

With the final four the composite score of each is collected and the top scorer will debate the 4th scorer, and 3 v. 2. Both in a real actual true debate. Now what they do now. The 2 winners get to be the guys that fight for the nomination with whatever current rules are in place now.

I would pay money to watch all of that.

 
I'm trying to figure out who ends up in the final 4 in your scenario. Your first 4 challenges will eliminate damn near everybody.

 
I'm too lazy to search for the Chris Christie thread so I'll just put this here. It's a good read regarding the NJ state pension mess.

Here's a paragraph from the article Pension-Gate: The lies behind Governor Christie

For the non-government workers reading this, imaging if you would that you had a 401k program where you worked. You made payments into this retirement fund, and your employer made matching payments. This money is for your retirement, and you spent your career relying on it to support yourself and family once you retire. Years go by, and your 401k plan is looking good; really good. Now imagine if you would that your employer decided that they wanted to pay for a totally unrelated program or project, and decided, without telling you, that they used your 401k to pay for it. When you do take note of the “withdrawal”, you are told “don’t worry, we will put it back”, but they never do. In fact, not only to they not put it back, but they stop making the matching payments. And to top it off, they blame YOU, and tell you that you need to put in more money. Sounds idiotic, doesn’t it? This is what your government has been doing for years.

 
I'm trying to figure out who ends up in the final 4 in your scenario. Your first 4 challenges will eliminate damn near everybody.
We have so far:

JEB Bush , Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, John Kasich, Rick Perry, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Mike Huckabee, Ben Carson, Rick Santorum, Lyndsay Graham, Carly Fiorina, Donald Trump, George Pataki, Jim Gilmore and Bob Erlich right now. So yeah 18. (What a crew.)

Home Run contest. Fiorina is definately not making it so she is out. Of the rest of the them, I'm betting Pataki is probably the worst, and I only say that because Trump, Graham, Huckabee, Gilmore and Erlich probably can muster 1. So we are down Fiorina and Pataki.

Spelling Bee - Gilmore and Erlich get lost here. I need three more. I know Perry is an obvious choice but he might surprise. Wouldn't be shocked if Jindal pooched the screw here. Santorum will screw it up as well. So, I'm going to say that here we lose Gilmore, Erlich, Santorum, Jindal and I'm going to say Graham just because he will be the funniest loss at this point right now.

Next, citizenship test. I need to lose 3. Carson probably misses it here, as will Trump and want to laugh so hard if Cruz did as well, but he probably hangs on. I'm actually going to say that Walker pooches it here. So, we are down Carson, Trump and Walker

Next is the tax return and we are down to Bush, Rubio, Cruz, Paul, Kasich, Perry, Christie, and Huckabee. Huckabee has no chance here, and neither does Perry. From the rest I'm betting that Christie screws it up the most even though he was a pretty good lawyer but the skills won't trasnfer here.

After the initial 4 rounds we are down to Bush, Rubio, Cruz, Paul and Kasich. Jeopardy time. Bush will do well. Rubio will as well. Cruz and Paul will be fighting each other for the top score and Kasich will slip by. This will be tough with those 5. I think Rubio is the odd one out on a close close score.

So our final 4 is Bush, Cruz, Paul and Kasich. Cruz could very well have the top score and Paul could be #2, but JEB is sneaky. I'm going to say that the final ranking here is Paul - Bush - Cruz - Kasich.

First debate - Paul v. Kasich. Paul is the totalitarian nut job and Kasich is the guy that has been around the block. Kasich can probably win this one. In the second, Bush will eat Cruz alive.

So the final two would be Bush and Kasich. For the chance to get obliterated by Hillary.

Eh...... who knows. I'm bored. And tired of all of these guys and gal.

 
It's time for new rules. American style of course.

Everyone (18 now?) who wants the GOP nomination has to compete in:

1. Home Run contest at Nationals Park - bottom 2 are eliminated

2. Spelling bee - first 5 wrong are out

3. American citizenship test - lowest 3 scores eliminated

4. Each has to prepare for filing a simple tax return for a single mother with 2 kids within 2 hours. 3 worst returns get eliminated

The final 5 have to compete in a Jeopardy like challenge of question and answer about American history, politics, policy, etc. Top 4 move on to the real debate.

With the final four the composite score of each is collected and the top scorer will debate the 4th scorer, and 3 v. 2. Both in a real actual true debate. Now what they do now. The 2 winners get to be the guys that fight for the nomination with whatever current rules are in place now.

I would pay money to watch all of that.
Well we know Christie wins Contest No. 1.

Jindal wins No. 2 (spoiler - the Indian kid always wins the spelling bee).

I don't know why, but somehow I'm guessing Cruz wins No. 3. Maybe because I think he actually had to take the test before.

I would have guessed Paul Ryan would have been the winner of No. 4, but he's not running so I will go with Trump here as I'm guessing his corporate CPA's handle it for him, they put her into an LLC and an offshore ccount and the woman comes out with a $10,000 refund to boot.

 
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Donald Trump says that his past donations to Democratic politicians were part of his business strategy of being “friendly with everybody” because “you’re gonna need things from everybody.”

...“Look,” he said last Wednesday, “politicians are all talk, they’re no action. They don’t do the job, they don’t know what they’re doing. I know them better than anybody, Howie. I deal with all of them. And, you know, I make contributions to many of them. They’re friends, they’re this. It’s smart. It’s called being an intelligent person and a great business person.

“But the truth is that, you have to be able to get along with—if you’re gonna be a business person, even in the United States, you wanna get along with all sides because you’re gonna need things from everybody. And you wanna get along with all sides, it’s very important.”

...“I am a businessman,” Trump said. “And when, you know, a Speaker of the House or head of the Senate or, you know, people call, you know, I generally speak. As a businessman, you wanna be friendly with everybody.”

...
http://www.buzzfeed.com/christophermassie/trump-on-donating-to-democrats-as-a-business-person-youre-go#.hqrk43OJA

First of all the Republicans are now officially skrewed. Trump is already 2nd in NH in the WSJ/NBC Suffolk poll.

Ok, that's out the way.

I find his whole entree disturbing for the country. We have the Clintons (rich, from public service), we have John Bush (rich, from old bank and oil money), and we have Trump (rich x1000), in 3 of the 4 leading spots in the two parties. In one sense I find it refreshing, here is a political candidate who is frank about corruption and how it works, except he is showing the POV of the corruptor. But on the other it shows a very cynical turn in US politics. Besides the money we have three candidates whose main "virtue" for running is their name recognition, they are famous or infamous by name. And of course there is the money that comes with it. It seems funny or absurd now but it may just be the beginning of the future. And the future is bleak.
Trump is a clown. There's no point in comparing him to serious candidates like Bush or Clinton, there's no good analogy to draw.
I don't think it was an analogy exactly, a partial comparison perhaps, they're three very to somewhat different people. I'm not sure it's anything more than a statement of two characteristics, wealth and name recognition, as possibly driving future elections.
Nationally, Trump is at 2%. The big 3 remain the same: Bush, Walker, Rubio. What's a little disturbing is that Ben Carson continues to rise and is now in 4th place with 10%.
He enters no. 2 in NH.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2015/6_23_for_posting_FINAL_NH_GOP_Marginals.pdf

You're right on the WSJ/NBC poll, he's low nationally.
There have been no ad buys yet. Trump is a big talker, and he'll be in a few debates (which should be fun) but I predict he'll drop out before he has to spend any real money.
As I was saying... Trump is now leading the GOP, nationally.

https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/07/09/gop-frontrunner-donald-trump/

I'm going to say it again, Hillary's, Jeb's, and Trump's main driving factors for being first are 1. name recognition, 2. tv coverage, and 3. wealth and connection to wealth (by which I mean super-wealth).

This is how we will be picking our presidents, it's really a bad harbinger.

 
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Except that Hillary's name recognition doesn't come from self-promotion, but from decades of public service at a very high level. She has earned her fame the right way.

 
Except that Hillary's name recognition doesn't come from self-promotion, but from decades of public service at a very high level. She has earned her fame the right way.
She was married to the President of the US. Without that she doesn't get elected Senator or become a presidential contender or SOS. Same goes for Jeb and his last name btw. The Clintons of course have made their "public" service a private business along the way.

 
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My trials of physicality and mental ability are not being given enough due. Imagine the love of our President we will all share when they win this thing that way?

And if that doesn't work, I'm all about a reverse Hunger Games - in order to be eligible to run for President from any party, you have to compete in a life or death struggle against everyone in your own party. If your party is full of whimps who won't do it because they are afraid of dying, then there will be a random draw of 12 of the governors / congressman / senators in that party to get to 12. 12 dems 12 elephants. They all get into a Hunger Games ring and only one from each party is allowed to live at the end. By any means necessary.

And then those two can campaign against each other in the regular normal way.

 
Except that Hillary's name recognition doesn't come from self-promotion, but from decades of public service at a very high level. She has earned her fame the right way.
She was married to the President of the US. Without that she doesn't get elected Senator or become a presidential contender or SOS. Same goes for Jeb and his last name btw. The Clintons of course have made their "public" service a private business along the way.
Without Hillary Bill never gets elected.
 
Except that Hillary's name recognition doesn't come from self-promotion, but from decades of public service at a very high level. She has earned her fame the right way.
She was married to the President of the US. Without that she doesn't get elected Senator or become a presidential contender or SOS. Same goes for Jeb and his last name btw. The Clintons of course have made their "public" service a private business along the way.
Without Hillary Bill never gets elected.
:lmao:

 
My trials of physicality and mental ability are not being given enough due. Imagine the love of our President we will all share when they win this thing that way?

And if that doesn't work, I'm all about a reverse Hunger Games - in order to be eligible to run for President from any party, you have to compete in a life or death struggle against everyone in your own party. If your party is full of whimps who won't do it because they are afraid of dying, then there will be a random draw of 12 of the governors / congressman / senators in that party to get to 12. 12 dems 12 elephants. They all get into a Hunger Games ring and only one from each party is allowed to live at the end. By any means necessary.

And then those two can campaign against each other in the regular normal way.
Rubio wins the Hunger Games thing, he's the youngest.

 
Except that Hillary's name recognition doesn't come from self-promotion, but from decades of public service at a very high level. She has earned her fame the right way.
She was married to the President of the US. Without that she doesn't get elected Senator or become a presidential contender or SOS. Same goes for Jeb and his last name btw. The Clintons of course have made their "public" service a private business along the way.
Without Hillary Bill never gets elected.
For lying about his 10 year affair with Gennifer Flowers in a fake Southuhm accent on national tv? Sure I guess he could have married Wendy Vitter instead...

 

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