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Official 2016 GOP thread: Is it really going to be Donald Trump?? (3 Viewers)

culdeus said:
Any updated vegas odds?
No surprise, but Trump is starting to fall.

Clinton +140

Bush +650

Sanders +1200

Trump +1200

Rubio +1500

Carly (climbing) +2000

Biden (out of nowhere) +2000

Kasich +2500

Christie +3500

Carson +4000

Awe Shucksabee is 100-1 right now.
OK, I'm going to ask you since you're my GB; almost asked GB Leeroy Jenkins when he did exactly the same thing. What is it with many of you calling everyone by his/her last name except for Fiorina? I've seen this over and over in the thread.
Spelling anxiety. :bag:

I did try to be funny with Huckabee because I loath him.

 
culdeus said:
Any updated vegas odds?
No surprise, but Trump is starting to fall.

Clinton +140

Bush +650

Sanders +1200

Trump +1200

Rubio +1500

Carly (climbing) +2000

Biden (out of nowhere) +2000

Kasich +2500

Christie +3500

Carson +4000

Awe Shucksabee is 100-1 right now.
OK, I'm going to ask you since you're my GB; almost asked GB Leeroy Jenkins when he did exactly the same thing. What is it with many of you calling everyone by his/her last name except for Fiorina? I've seen this over and over in the thread.
I wasn't sure how to spell it off hand. I think I botched it elsewhere. A disgrace to my Italian heritage.
:lmao: I wondered if it was the spelling for GM, but you of all people...

ETA: That can't be the excuse for a lot of people, though, because they end up spelling her first name wrong, too.
Did I misspell her first name too? God I suck.

 
culdeus said:
Any updated vegas odds?
No surprise, but Trump is starting to fall.

Clinton +140

Bush +650

Sanders +1200

Trump +1200

Rubio +1500

Carly (climbing) +2000

Biden (out of nowhere) +2000

Kasich +2500

Christie +3500

Carson +4000

Awe Shucksabee is 100-1 right now.
Is there an option to bet on none of the above? Like a field?
Not on SB. I can look on Bovada.

 
culdeus said:
Any updated vegas odds?
No surprise, but Trump is starting to fall.

Clinton +140

Bush +650

Sanders +1200

Trump +1200

Rubio +1500

Carly (climbing) +2000

Biden (out of nowhere) +2000

Kasich +2500

Christie +3500

Carson +4000

Awe Shucksabee is 100-1 right now.
OK, I'm going to ask you since you're my GB; almost asked GB Leeroy Jenkins when he did exactly the same thing. What is it with many of you calling everyone by his/her last name except for Fiorina? I've seen this over and over in the thread.
I wasn't sure how to spell it off hand. I think I botched it elsewhere. A disgrace to my Italian heritage.
:lmao: I wondered if it was the spelling for GM, but you of all people...

ETA: That can't be the excuse for a lot of people, though, because they end up spelling her first name wrong, too.
Did I misspell her first name too? God I suck.
No, no you didn't. Just lots of instances of "Carli" in this thread.

 
Rubio has great value at +1500.

I think just straddling Clinton/Biden is the +EV play at this point given where things sit. Having a little Rubio to cover that side wouldn't be the worst way to be setup. Opportunities to hedge on these were great last cycle. InTrade was phenomenal when some GOP homer was just pouring money on Romney late.

 
culdeus said:
Any updated vegas odds?
No surprise, but Trump is starting to fall.

Clinton +140

Bush +650

Sanders +1200

Trump +1200

Rubio +1500

Carly (climbing) +2000

Biden (out of nowhere) +2000

Kasich +2500

Christie +3500

Carson +4000

Awe Shucksabee is 100-1 right now.
Is there an option to bet on none of the above? Like a field?
Not on SB. I can look on Bovada.
No field, but THIS is interesting....

Hilary is +150 at Bovada, which is the clear favorite. Democrats are -150/Republicans +120 to win. However, in GENDER to win the POTUS: Male -170/Female +140.

So Hilary is the clear favorite, but the Gender odds favor a male.

 
Rubio has great value at +1500.

I think just straddling Clinton/Biden is the +EV play at this point given where things sit. Having a little Rubio to cover that side wouldn't be the worst way to be setup. Opportunities to hedge on these were great last cycle. InTrade was phenomenal when some GOP homer was just pouring money on Romney late.
What do you think of Kasich at +2500? Might just be wishful thinking on my part.

 
Rubio has great value at +1500.

I think just straddling Clinton/Biden is the +EV play at this point given where things sit. Having a little Rubio to cover that side wouldn't be the worst way to be setup. Opportunities to hedge on these were great last cycle. InTrade was phenomenal when some GOP homer was just pouring money on Romney late.
What do you think of Kasich at +2500? Might just be wishful thinking on my part.
He's gained no traction and the cnn people didn't even talk about him after the debate. He at least was on meet the press this weekend and sounded legitimate. I don't think the primary voters will gravitate towards him unfortunately.

 
I think with Walker gone, Kasich has an opportunity.

Let's say Trump actually wins Iowa. NH moderates are then desperate to find somebody else. Not Bush, too weak. Not Rubio, too conservative. So Kasich find have a window there...

 
I think with Walker gone, Kasich has an opportunity.

Let's say Trump actually wins Iowa. NH moderates are then desperate to find somebody else. Not Bush, too weak. Not Rubio, too conservative. So Kasich find have a window there...
:lol: Tim my man, are you capable of just letting things play out?? I can't imagine going to a "who done it" sort of movie with you :P

 
I think with Walker gone, Kasich has an opportunity.

Let's say Trump actually wins Iowa. NH moderates are then desperate to find somebody else. Not Bush, too weak. Not Rubio, too conservative. So Kasich find have a window there...
:lol: Tim my man, are you capable of just letting things play out?? I can't imagine going to a "who done it" sort of movie with you :P
Things will play out whether I comment on them or not. I also have been wrong so often already in this election cycle that it's not like any predictions I make from this point forward will add to my credibility... :) Still, I haven't been nearly as wrong as Karl Rove has been, and he gets paid to make predictions.

Anyhow, what's the point of having a discussion board if we're not going to discuss anything?

 
is Kasich 'conservative' enough to get right-wing vote to come out in a general election? he is so much more qualified and so much more sane than the rest of them it is silly.... Out of the establishment guys, Christie will get burred by Bridgegate, Cruz is a wackjob, Rubio knows his stuff but it always sounds like he is reciting his notes and Bush is too weak.. i see Kasich as the GOP's best option

 
is Kasich 'conservative' enough to get right-wing vote to come out in a general election? he is so much more qualified and so much more sane than the rest of them it is silly.... Out of the establishment guys, Christie will get burred by Bridgegate, Cruz is a wackjob, Rubio knows his stuff but it always sounds like he is reciting his notes and Bush is too weak.. i see Kasich as the GOP's best option
Maybe not, but it's also possible that he's moderate enough to suppress what could otherwise be a very passionate anti-GOP candidate turnout. Imagine Trump or Carson as the GOP nominee. It's hard to imagine anyone left of Joe McCarthy staying home for that one. Kasich, on the other hand, is tolerable.

 
I think with Walker gone, Kasich has an opportunity.

Let's say Trump actually wins Iowa. NH moderates are then desperate to find somebody else. Not Bush, too weak. Not Rubio, too conservative. So Kasich find have a window there...
:lol: Tim my man, are you capable of just letting things play out?? I can't imagine going to a "who done it" sort of movie with you :P
Things will play out whether I comment on them or not. I also have been wrong so often already in this election cycle that it's not like any predictions I make from this point forward will add to my credibility... :) Still, I haven't been nearly as wrong as Karl Rove has been, and he gets paid to make predictions.

Anyhow, what's the point of having a discussion board if we're not going to discuss anything?
Way to set that bar with Rove ;)

Discussions are one thing....having to predict every detail of the future has to be exhausting.

 
I think with Walker gone, Kasich has an opportunity.

Let's say Trump actually wins Iowa. NH moderates are then desperate to find somebody else. Not Bush, too weak. Not Rubio, too conservative. So Kasich find have a window there...
:lol: Tim my man, are you capable of just letting things play out?? I can't imagine going to a "who done it" sort of movie with you :P
Things will play out whether I comment on them or not. I also have been wrong so often already in this election cycle that it's not like any predictions I make from this point forward will add to my credibility... :) Still, I haven't been nearly as wrong as Karl Rove has been, and he gets paid to make predictions.

Anyhow, what's the point of having a discussion board if we're not going to discuss anything?
Way to set that bar with Rove ;)

Discussions are one thing....having to predict every detail of the future has to be exhausting.
My forecast is that Tim won't stop.

 
I think with Walker gone, Kasich has an opportunity.

Let's say Trump actually wins Iowa. NH moderates are then desperate to find somebody else. Not Bush, too weak. Not Rubio, too conservative. So Kasich find have a window there...
Trump is the most moderate of the republican candidates, so by your logic wouldn't that help him in NH?

 
Bottomfeeder Sports said:
You're not using the word racism correctly.
Agreed! Tim like almost everyone else uses the ultra narrow definition that is pretty much impossible to meet. Racism in the US has been largely redefined out of existence as new required attributes have been added to the word.
I don't understand this post.
Find any of your "so and so is not racist" post and look at your reasons why that poster is not a racist in your mind.
Either your notebook is off or mine is.

 
I think with Walker gone, Kasich has an opportunity.

Let's say Trump actually wins Iowa. NH moderates are then desperate to find somebody else. Not Bush, too weak. Not Rubio, too conservative. So Kasich find have a window there...
Trump is the most moderate of the republican candidates, so by your logic wouldn't that help him in NH?
What just happened?
He might be the most obnoxious or arrogant but his views are far more moderate (some of his views are liberal) than the other candidates and what the hardcore republicans who normally decide the primaries would like.

The republican "elite" or whatever you want to call them don't want him because he is not hardcore enough for them and won't be their puppet. The democrats are scared because he is the only republican that will have a chance at winning the general election (all the other potential nominees are bigger jokes or just straight up lunatics). I think Biden will beat Trump if he runs but Trump could easily beat Hilary.

 
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Trump said he wants to raise taxes, is pro-choice, and isn't a bible thumper. He is more moderate than other Republicans in the field because most of them are lunatics.

 
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I think with Walker gone, Kasich has an opportunity.

Let's say Trump actually wins Iowa. NH moderates are then desperate to find somebody else. Not Bush, too weak. Not Rubio, too conservative. So Kasich find have a window there...
Trump is the most moderate of the republican candidates, so by your logic wouldn't that help him in NH?
What just happened?
He might be the most obnoxious or arrogant but his views are far more moderate (some of his views are liberal) than the other candidates and what the hardcore republicans who normally decide the primaries would like.

The republican "elite" or whatever you want to call them don't want him because he is not hardcore enough for them and won't be their puppet. The democrats are scared because he is the only republican that will have a chance at winning the general election (all the other potential nominees are bigger jokes or just straight up lunatics). I think Biden will beat Trump if he runs but Trump could easily beat Hilary.
this is correct

 
Wish we could get a R candidate that would toe the line and not fold during the primary season into religious and personal freedom cramping bull####. There's some really smart people on the R side of things that would make great Presidents if they didn't have to pander to the religious side of the party. It's a shame, we'll probably never see one of those really smart Repubs become President.

 
Trump is pro-choice?
I think he changed his view to pro-life based on life experiences or something to that sort
:lmao: Trump's attempts to pretend that he cares about abortion and the Bible are pretty hilarious. He clearly doesn't care about either.

"The Bible is my favorite book! I don't want to get into specifics about verses. The whole thing is incredible! Old Testament, New Testament. Equally fantastic!"

"Sure, I used to respond that I was pro-choice when asked whether I support partial birth abortions. But now I hate abortion! I had some friends that thought about aborting their baby, but now he's a superstar! He's fantastic! I'm pro-life now!"

I do think Trump is probably in reality the most moderate on social issues and is clearly just saying things that he knows Republicans want/need to hear from their candidate on religion and abortion.

 
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Actually Trump seems very sincere on why he changed to pro-life

"One thing about me, I'm a very honorable guy. I'm pro-life, but I changed my view a number of years ago. One of the primary reasons I changed [was] a friend of mine's wife was pregnant, and he didn't really want the baby. He was crying as he was telling me the story. He ends up having the baby and the baby is the apple of his eye. It's the greatest thing that's ever happened to him. And you know here's a baby that wasn't going to be let into life. And I heard this, and some other stories, and I am pro-life."

 
That seems more like he doesn't like seeing someone have an abortion. Who does?

That's different than working towards making them illegal.

 
Wish we could get a R candidate that would toe the line and not fold during the primary season into religious and personal freedom cramping bull####. There's some really smart people on the R side of things that would make great Presidents if they didn't have to pander to the religious side of the party. It's a shame, we'll probably never see one of those really smart Repubs become President.
Can you imagine the #### hole the US would be if they had a bunch of jesus freaks like Huckabee. We would be just like the crazy muslim except the leaders of this country would be telling everyone how they are in touch with the real god....kinda like the muslim crazies think they are.

Anyone spouting off about religion in politics is done in my book. Keep your worship #### to yourself. It has no place in govt.

 
Actually Trump seems very sincere on why he changed to pro-life

"One thing about me, I'm a very honorable guy. I'm pro-life, but I changed my view a number of years ago. One of the primary reasons I changed [was] a friend of mine's wife was pregnant, and he didn't really want the baby. He was crying as he was telling me the story. He ends up having the baby and the baby is the apple of his eye. It's the greatest thing that's ever happened to him. And you know here's a baby that wasn't going to be let into life. And I heard this, and some other stories, and I am pro-life."
What is the over-under on number of abortions that Trump has paid for? I would guess that the line would be at least three.

 
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Actually Trump seems very sincere on why he changed to pro-life

"One thing about me, I'm a very honorable guy. I'm pro-life, but I changed my view a number of years ago. One of the primary reasons I changed [was] a friend of mine's wife was pregnant, and he didn't really want the baby. He was crying as he was telling me the story. He ends up having the baby and the baby is the apple of his eye. It's the greatest thing that's ever happened to him. And you know here's a baby that wasn't going to be let into life. And I heard this, and some other stories, and I am pro-life."
you can't be this......oh wait.
 
Actually Trump seems very sincere on why he changed to pro-life

"One thing about me, I'm a very honorable guy. I'm pro-life, but I changed my view a number of years ago. One of the primary reasons I changed [was] a friend of mine's wife was pregnant, and he didn't really want the baby. He was crying as he was telling me the story. He ends up having the baby and the baby is the apple of his eye. It's the greatest thing that's ever happened to him. And you know here's a baby that wasn't going to be let into life. And I heard this, and some other stories, and I am pro-life."
you can't be this......oh wait.
Yes we know, everyone that isn't for who you like is either stupid or racist. Move along now little boy, you provide nothing.

 
Just saw the Chris Wallace interview with Fiorina from the weekend. She's a very solid candidate. I say this as an HP employee. I'm very concerned.

 
Just saw the Chris Wallace interview with Fiorina from the weekend. She's a very solid candidate. I say this as an HP employee. I'm very concerned.
All you need to know about her, besides all of her failures is in this single quote.

"There is no job that is America's God-given right anymore," said Carly Fiorina, chairman of Palo Alto information technology giant Hewlett Packard."

She doesn't want to make America great again like Mr. Trump, she wants to make America H1B1 again.

 
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