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Official 2016 GOP thread: Is it really going to be Donald Trump?? (1 Viewer)

QuizGuy66 said:
Trumps Fav/Unfav in Iowa is 50/47.

Among Republicans.

This is something that long players like Cruz and Rubio and Kasich are counting on. That when it comes down to 2 they'll be able to take him down.

The survivor that hangs in through Mid-March has a real shot and even if Trump wins the first 4 states and does well on Super Tuesday there is going to be somebody hanging in there to be around for the winner take all states. Those start with Ohio for the Kasich honks out there.

That said an Iowa loss is problematic for Cruz - he peaked a couple weeks early. Rubio's poised to win the expectations game there.

I think there is no way Trump is the last guy left when the winner-take-all states start. Establishment honks just won't stand for it.

-QG
Click to expand...
Washington Post article that sez....welll exactly what I said :) :bowtie:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/will-the-empire-strike-back-hopes-and-fears-in-the-gop-establishment/2016/01/30/0a2e87f8-c6ee-11e5-a4aa-f25866ba0dc6_story.html

-QG

 
QuizGuy66 said:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-final-des-moines-register-iowa-poll-is-out-how-accurate-will-it-be/?ex_cid=538twitter

Good 538 article on track record of the final Des Moines Register pole

-QG
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"Indeed, what makes Selzer truly special isn’t just that she calls winners but that her error rates are fairly low across all candidates. Her average error per candidate per year has been just 3.3 percentage points. That means that what a candidate receives in her poll is probably going to be pretty close to what he or she gets from voters."

 
QuizGuy66 said:
The survivor that hangs in through Mid-March has a real shot and even if Trump wins the first 4 states and does well on Super Tuesday there is going to be somebody hanging in there to be around for the winner take all states. Those start with Ohio for the Kasich honks out there.
Click to expand...
According to Quinnipiac Trump is leading even in Ohio. Kasich is 3rd.

 
NorvilleBarnes said:
QuizGuy66 said:
The survivor that hangs in through Mid-March has a real shot and even if Trump wins the first 4 states and does well on Super Tuesday there is going to be somebody hanging in there to be around for the winner take all states. Those start with Ohio for the Kasich honks out there.
Click to expand...
According to Quinnipiac Trump is leading even in Ohio. Kasich is 3rd.
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Narrowing the field could make a big diff.

-QG

 
QG, doesn't the GOP usually rally around early frontrunners? Trump appears poised to go on a 3-0 run to start the process.

eta - had to edit that. Don't know why I thought Florida was 4th.

 
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Trump wins Iowa. Trump wins New Hampshire. Trump wins Nevada. Trump wins South Carolina.

After that the rest of the field is winnowed out and there is one establishment guy left. I thought it might be Rubio but Bush has a chance as well. Whoever this guy is, all of the big donor money will be thrown behind him in a last ditch effort to stop Trump. And it may work. Maybe.

 
timschochet said:
Trump wins Iowa. Trump wins New Hampshire. Trump wins Nevada. Trump wins South Carolina.

After that the rest of the field is winnowed out and there is one establishment guy left. I thought it might be Rubio but Bush has a chance as well. Whoever this guy is, all of the big donor money will be thrown behind him in a last ditch effort to stop Trump. And it may work. Maybe.
Click to expand...
As a Hillary supporter, why wouldn't you want Trump to be the opponent given the polling? I personally think he's dangerous to run against heads up because of what he can do with the media. But all the opponents want to try and say how unelectable Trump is. Personally I think Cruz and Bernie are both much worse for the country. I'm voting for Kasich in the primary, but in the general as long as it isn't Cruz vs Bernie I'd be voting against either of those two that were on a ticket.

 
Shula-holic said:
timschochet said:
Trump wins Iowa. Trump wins New Hampshire. Trump wins Nevada. Trump wins South Carolina.

After that the rest of the field is winnowed out and there is one establishment guy left. I thought it might be Rubio but Bush has a chance as well. Whoever this guy is, all of the big donor money will be thrown behind him in a last ditch effort to stop Trump. And it may work. Maybe.
Click to expand...
As a Hillary supporter, why wouldn't you want Trump to be the opponent given the polling? I personally think he's dangerous to run against heads up because of what he can do with the media. But all the opponents want to try and say how unelectable Trump is. Personally I think Cruz and Bernie are both much worse for the country. I'm voting for Kasich in the primary, but in the general as long as it isn't Cruz vs Bernie I'd be voting against either of those two that were on a ticket.
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I am not a Hillary supporter first. First I am, I'd like to think, a patriot. IMO, if Donald J Trump is the nominee for President of the Republican party, it's a stain on this nation.

 
timschochet said:
Shula-holic said:
timschochet said:
Trump wins Iowa. Trump wins New Hampshire. Trump wins Nevada. Trump wins South Carolina.

After that the rest of the field is winnowed out and there is one establishment guy left. I thought it might be Rubio but Bush has a chance as well. Whoever this guy is, all of the big donor money will be thrown behind him in a last ditch effort to stop Trump. And it may work. Maybe.
Click to expand...
As a Hillary supporter, why wouldn't you want Trump to be the opponent given the polling? I personally think he's dangerous to run against heads up because of what he can do with the media. But all the opponents want to try and say how unelectable Trump is. Personally I think Cruz and Bernie are both much worse for the country. I'm voting for Kasich in the primary, but in the general as long as it isn't Cruz vs Bernie I'd be voting against either of those two that were on a ticket.
Click to expand...
First I am, I'd like to think, a patriot.
Click to expand...
A true patriot would want to make America great again.

 
timschochet said:
Shula-holic said:
timschochet said:
Trump wins Iowa. Trump wins New Hampshire. Trump wins Nevada. Trump wins South Carolina.

After that the rest of the field is winnowed out and there is one establishment guy left. I thought it might be Rubio but Bush has a chance as well. Whoever this guy is, all of the big donor money will be thrown behind him in a last ditch effort to stop Trump. And it may work. Maybe.
Click to expand...
As a Hillary supporter, why wouldn't you want Trump to be the opponent given the polling? I personally think he's dangerous to run against heads up because of what he can do with the media. But all the opponents want to try and say how unelectable Trump is. Personally I think Cruz and Bernie are both much worse for the country. I'm voting for Kasich in the primary, but in the general as long as it isn't Cruz vs Bernie I'd be voting against either of those two that were on a ticket.
Click to expand...
I am not a Hillary supporter first. First I am, I'd like to think, a patriot. IMO, if Donald J Trump is the nominee for President of the Republican party, it's a stain on this nation.
Click to expand...
Thought you were dead Lavoy!

Too soon?

 
SIDA! said:
timschochet said:
Shula-holic said:
timschochet said:
Trump wins Iowa. Trump wins New Hampshire. Trump wins Nevada. Trump wins South Carolina.

After that the rest of the field is winnowed out and there is one establishment guy left. I thought it might be Rubio but Bush has a chance as well. Whoever this guy is, all of the big donor money will be thrown behind him in a last ditch effort to stop Trump. And it may work. Maybe.
Click to expand...
As a Hillary supporter, why wouldn't you want Trump to be the opponent given the polling? I personally think he's dangerous to run against heads up because of what he can do with the media. But all the opponents want to try and say how unelectable Trump is. Personally I think Cruz and Bernie are both much worse for the country. I'm voting for Kasich in the primary, but in the general as long as it isn't Cruz vs Bernie I'd be voting against either of those two that were on a ticket.
Click to expand...
First I am, I'd like to think, a patriot.
Click to expand...
A true patriot would want to make America great again.
Click to expand...
I think it's great right now, and want to keep it that way.

 
Mario Kart said:
Kasich is electable. I don't see any other Republican nearing any victory.

If Iowa is smart, and they aren't, they go with Kasich.
Click to expand...
Hillary, Bernie and all Republicans not named Kasich will likely be reviled by a good chunk of the nation. We have to get beyond the status quo of having 50%+ of the country being vehemently opposed to and outright hating the president. Kasich is the only candidate that can pull that off.

 
bananafish said:
kwille said:
Mario Kart said:
Kasich is electable. I don't see any other Republican nearing any victory.

If Iowa is smart, and they aren't, they go with Kasich.
Click to expand...
Hillary, Bernie and all Republicans not named Kasich will likely be reviled by a good chunk of the nation. We have to get beyond the status quo of having 50%+ of the country being vehemently opposed to and outright hating the president. Kasich is the only candidate that can pull that off.
Click to expand...
Hate that guy.
Click to expand...
I fracking don't like him much either, but truly would be the best republican option.

 
3C said:
After Iowa do Sanitorium and Fiorina pull out? And if so, who do their tens of supporters go to?
Click to expand...
I wouldn't be surprised if they stay in. Santorum has a history of that and Fiorinna may be angling for a VP spot.

 
Finally got to watch the debate yesterday. I think they all brought something to it except for maybe Carson. Someone outside of Trump, Rubio and Cruz could still surprise.

 
Watching Rubio on Meet The Press... My God he cannot get out of his own way on the immigration issue and the Gang of 8. It's unbelievable how badly he handles this issue.

 
 
Higgs said:
Watching Rubio on Meet The Press... My God he cannot get out of his own way on the immigration issue and the Gang of 8. It's unbelievable how badly he handles this issue.
Click to expand...
Agreed, and I don't really care about that issue as much as I do his inability to handle it.

 
Mario Kart said:
Kasich is electable. I don't see any other Republican nearing any victory.

If Iowa is smart, and they aren't, they go with Kasich.
Click to expand...
Republicans have gone with the "electable" candidate the last two elections and it hasn't helped them. It's probably worth a shot at this point to roll the dice with the firebrand/demagogue.

 
bigbottom said:
Mario Kart said:
Kasich is electable. I don't see any other Republican nearing any victory.

If Iowa is smart, and they aren't, they go with Kasich.
Click to expand...
Republicans have gone with the "electable" candidate the last two elections and it hasn't helped them. It's probably worth a shot at this point to roll the dice with the firebrand/demagogue.
Click to expand...
Agreed. Let the Democrats have the "enthusiasm deficit" this time around.

 
bigbottom said:
Mario Kart said:
Kasich is electable. I don't see any other Republican nearing any victory.

If Iowa is smart, and they aren't, they go with Kasich.
Click to expand...
Republicans have gone with the "electable" candidate the last two elections and it hasn't helped them. It's probably worth a shot at this point to roll the dice with the firebrand/demagogue.
Click to expand...
In the Republican primary, the establishment candidate always wins. Bush was the establishment candidate in 2000. Eventually "the base" has to win one.

 
Rirruto said:
bigbottom said:
Mario Kart said:
Kasich is electable. I don't see any other Republican nearing any victory.

If Iowa is smart, and they aren't, they go with Kasich.
Click to expand...
Republicans have gone with the "electable" candidate the last two elections and it hasn't helped them. It's probably worth a shot at this point to roll the dice with the firebrand/demagogue.
Click to expand...
In the Republican primary, the establishment candidate always wins. Bush was the establishment candidate in 2000. Eventually "the base" has to win one.
Click to expand...
Goldwater was a clear outlier in '64.

Reagan was seen as a Goldwater-type in '68 but he was an establishment guy by 1980.

 
Higgs said:
Watching Rubio on Meet The Press... My God he cannot get out of his own way on the immigration issue and the Gang of 8. It's unbelievable how badly he handles this issue.
Click to expand...
I will say this for Trump, his plan is clear. I have no idea what the other Goppers stand for on this issue, and I don't think I even understand what Hillary and Sanders are proposing.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Higgs said:
Watching Rubio on Meet The Press... My God he cannot get out of his own way on the immigration issue and the Gang of 8. It's unbelievable how badly he handles this issue.
Click to expand...
I will say this for Trump, his plan is clear. I have no idea what the other Goppers stand for on this issue, and I don't think I even understand what Hillary and Sanders are proposing.
Click to expand...
I hope this is sarcasm. Trump is the biggest shoot from the hip, specifics be damned huckster I've ever seen.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Higgs said:
Watching Rubio on Meet The Press... My God he cannot get out of his own way on the immigration issue and the Gang of 8. It's unbelievable how badly he handles this issue.
Click to expand...
I will say this for Trump, his plan is clear. I have no idea what the other Goppers stand for on this issue, and I don't think I even understand what Hillary and Sanders are proposing.
Click to expand...
His goal is clear. He doesn't have a plan.

 
TripItUp said:
Higgs said:
Watching Rubio on Meet The Press... My God he cannot get out of his own way on the immigration issue and the Gang of 8. It's unbelievable how badly he handles this issue.
Click to expand...
Agreed, and I don't really care about that issue as much as I do his inability to handle it.
Click to expand...
Thanks for pointing out the MTP interview. I managed to catch the replay. I'm not sure what you saw but I saw a clear, concise answer to it that is consistent with what he's been saying. He's so much better in interviews than the debates. This helped sway be a bit back towards him...thx! :thumbup:

 
I know a few people that have met and worked directly with Michael Bloomberg. They have said very good things about his management abilities and strategic thinking. Plus, his socially liberal / fiscal conservative approach doesn't bother me nearly as much as the opposite. While I would like to see more socialism in this country, I think that a good leader with a good, pragmatic approach would suit me ok.

Oh, and I don't really trust Hillary.

Here's a link to his stances: http://www.ontheissues.org/Mike_Bloomberg.htm I find that a lot of them are well reasoned. Add in some more income inequality stuff, and I'd be pretty happy with him.

 
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