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Official 2016 GOP thread: Is it really going to be Donald Trump?? (1 Viewer)

Some of the Trump haters remind me of the people who held Enron stock all the way down from $90 down to $0. Just absolutely refuse to admit you are wrong. Unable to deal with reality.

The same polls they use to cite such and such reason why Trump will fail moving forward cited other polls months ago about why Trump would never get any traction.

But I know what we should do...keep looking at polls to explain why I am right now even though I have used polls over and over in the past that failed to capture what was going on.

 

 
Rove! said:
Trumps candidacy is built on some policies

1  - crackdown on illegal immigration

2 - crackdown on muslims

it's built on those two things plus

3 perception that he can help the economy

4 perception as an outsider not afraid to go off script.

those first two are as legitimate of policy positions as anybody else has proposed....

i hate him, but he dies have policy proposals...
Click to expand...


I agree on 1 for sure, 2.... is he still on that? Ok say I agree with 2 even though it's a variant on 1, immigration. He's really specific, absolute and consistent on immigration. After that it's a big nothing.

 
SIDA! said:
Some of the Trump haters remind me of the people who held Enron stock all the way down from $90 down to $0. Just absolutely refuse to admit you are wrong. Unable to deal with reality.

The same polls they use to cite such and such reason why Trump will fail moving forward cited other polls months ago about why Trump would never get any traction.

But I know what we should do...keep looking at polls to explain why I am right now even though I have used polls over and over in the past that failed to capture what was going on.

 
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I used election results in my post.  Don't see any significant amount  switching to him. 

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
I agree on 1 for sure, 2.... is he still on that? Ok say I agree with 2 even though it's a variant on 1, immigration. He's really specific, absolute and consistent on immigration. After that it's a big nothing.
Click to expand...
You must have missed the part where he talks about correcting horrible free trade agreements that have sent jobs overseas. I don't blame you for missing it. Just about every political candidate over the last 20 years has forgotten about working class America, too.

 
SIDA! said:
You must have missed the part where he talks about correcting horrible free trade agreements that have sent jobs overseas. I don't blame you for missing it. Just about every political candidate over the last 20 years has forgotten about working class America, too.
Click to expand...
Actually that's a good point, he's against the TPP, right?

 
Getzlaf15 said:
I used election results in my post.  Don't see any significant amount  switching to him. 
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Citing election results doesn't prove your theory that Trump will not get more votes as other candidates pull out.

Also, not sure why you don't think that any of Carson's people will go for Trump. Exit polling in SC showed that Trump did better than every other candidate with evangelicals. 

People aren't really giving Trump credit for SC...another state that isn't exactly in his wheelhouse. That was GOP establishment/Bush country. It has a huge evangelical electorate...but...yet again he is walking away with more than 30%. 

Earlier today and this week people were saying that he was polling less than 30%. But he got more than 30%...so he gets bashed for underperforming his poll numbers in a caucus state and no credit for outperforming poll numbers in NH and SC. Not referring to you specifically...but as a whole I can't keep up with the moving targets the anti-Trumpers keep throwing out.

 

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Actually that's a good point, he's against the TPP, right?
Click to expand...
Yep. He is against all of them and one of the reasons I have been saying for months that he is going to be deadly in the general against HRC. He is going to crush her with working class Dems. Take it to the bank. 

HRC and the Dems have spent the last 20 years talking to blacks, minorities, gays and illegals. They give lip service to working class Dems...but what have they really done? What has the GOP done? Nothing. 

I keep saying it but he talks in plain English and verbalizes things that most of us say. One example. Have you heard him speak about our foreign aid policies with respect to other nations?

Why do we give billions to countries that hate us? Why do subsidize the national defense and protection of other nations and what are we getting in return for it? Why don't we ask more of South Korea? Why don't we ask more of Germany, etc?

The average American can't wrap their head around this crap. They see the United States as an ATM constantly spitting out money to people who are ungrateful and don't appreciate it while our own people get dicked around at home.

 
SIDA, as you know, although I STRONGLY disagree with your political views I very much have grown to respect your political analysis. I agree with much of what you have written here. 

In addition, I don't know why people are assuming that the Cruz vote would go to Rubio. Before Trump showed up, Cruz was the poster boy for the anti-establishment fervor on the right. If Trump had not chosen to run, I have to believe that Ted Cruz would now be the strong frontrunner. I think its very possible that the strong majority of his vote goes to Donald Trump if and when he leaves the race. 

 
timschochet said:
SIDA, as you know, although I STRONGLY disagree with your political views I very much have grown to respect your political analysis. I agree with much of what you have written here. 

In addition, I don't know why people are assuming that the Cruz vote would go to Rubio. Before Trump showed up, Cruz was the poster boy for the anti-establishment fervor on the right. If Trump had not chosen to run, I have to believe that Ted Cruz would now be the strong frontrunner. I think its very possible that the strong majority of his vote goes to Donald Trump if and when he leaves the race. 
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Thank you for the compliment, Tim. And I don't know why people think Cruz supporters are going to Rubio, either. Boggles my mind...but there is only so much I can say and only so many times I can repeat myself. We are all the way to SC and more than 60% of the vote is still going to outsiders. People like me know that Rubio is the preferred/desired establishment candidate for obvious reasons.

 
SIDA! said:
Yep. He is against all of them and one of the reasons I have been saying for months that he is going to be deadly in the general against HRC. He is going to crush her with working class Dems. Take it to the bank. 

HRC and the Dems have spent the last 20 years talking to blacks, minorities, gays and illegals. They give lip service to working class Dems...but what have they really done? What has the GOP done? Nothing. 

I keep saying it but he talks in plain English and verbalizes things that most of us say. One example. Have you heard him speak about our foreign aid policies with respect to other nations?

Why do we give billions to countries that hate us? Why do subsidize the national defense and protection of other nations and what are we getting in return for it? Why don't we ask more of South Korea? Why don't we ask more of Germany, etc?

The average American can't wrap their head around this crap. They see the United States as an ATM constantly spitting out money to people who are ungrateful and don't appreciate it while our own people get dicked around at home.
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You have a good point about TPP and I have my own issues with it.

2nd line isn't bad in the same respect that the GOP and DEM ignored immigration.

First part of the third line is clearly true, our politicians have forgotten how to politic and Trump has reminded them.

However as for the rest, IMO that aid is important and good. It's a longer discussion, but that's probably one reason I would oppose Trump though I had not thought about that specific one. I will say that the leadership in both parties has failed nationally / on a presidential level to maintain the case for these policies, things have been hollow ideologically for a while, creating a dangerous vacuum, doesn't mean I agree with the man attempting to fill that crevice.

 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
You have a good point about TPP and I have my own issues with it.

2nd line isn't bad in the same respect that the GOP and DEM ignored immigration.

First part of the third line is clearly true, our politicians have forgotten how to politic and Trump has reminded them.

However as for the rest, IMO that aid is important and good. It's a longer discussion, but that's probably one reason I would oppose Trump though I had not thought about that specific one. I will say that the leadership in both parties has failed nationally / on a presidential level to maintain the case for these policies, things have been hollow ideologically for a while, creating a dangerous vacuum, doesn't mean I agree with the man attempting to fill that crevice.
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Let's back up on a few things. FWIW, I don't agree with Trump on everything.

But I have reached the point where my dissatisfaction with my party and the way my government operates Trumps these "trivialities." I have honestly reached a point where just about any issue is a triviality to me. I don't give a ####. I don't care what he says he believes in. I just believe that he is going to destroy the status quo and I am not sure that whatever replaces it will be better...but I am damn sure ready to take a chance. Let's hope he does change things...because the next option for a lot of pissed off Americans is going to be their guns.

Everything these whores who have been running for office and winning have said are lies. They are all ####### liars. If I had my way we would snatch them out of their cushy offices in D.C. and tar and feather their pathetic asses. I am serious. #### em all. As far as I am concerned they can all hang from light posts throughout the district. 

These bastards say they support free trade and that that will benefit our country. It has only benefited their corporate overlords and resulted in jobs being shipped overseas. #### em.

These bastards say they are for the working man at the same time they let millions of illegals come in and take their jobs. Don't give me this bull#### about how they only do the jobs Americans won't do. That is bull####. #### em.

These bastards tell us they are for our veterans and a damn thing never seems to change. #### em.

These bastards tell us they are for limited government and balanced budgets. Ha! ####### liars. 

These bastards tell us they are going to fix social security. Every year they steal from it to feed their bull#### social programs, or their special interests or whatever the #### they are spending it on. 

They all say they are against illegal immigration, but they never do a ####### thing about it on either side. #### em.

The GOP spends the 90's bashing Clinton left and right for being a nation builder and then W. comes along and we become nation builders. #### those hypocrites.

#### em all. 

That is why I am voting for Trump. 

 
Trump 32% of the vote and 100% of the delegates...WINNING!!!

I mentioned in the Trump thread but he can win most of the WTA states with 33% of the vote. He is running a David Dodds VBD Campaign.

 
SIDA! said:
Let's back up on a few things. FWIW, I don't agree with Trump on everything.

But I have reached the point where my dissatisfaction with my party and the way my government operates Trumps these "trivialities." I have honestly reached a point where just about any issue is a triviality to me. I don't give a ####. I don't care what he says he believes in. I just believe that he is going to destroy the status quo and I am not sure that whatever replaces it will be better...but I am damn sure ready to take a chance. Let's hope he does change things...because the next option for a lot of pissed off Americans is going to be their guns.

Everything these whores who have been running for office and winning have said are lies. They are all ####### liars. If I had my way we would snatch them out of their cushy offices in D.C. and tar and feather their pathetic asses. I am serious. #### em all. As far as I am concerned they can all hang from light posts throughout the district. 

These bastards say they support free trade and that that will benefit our country. It has only benefited their corporate overlords and resulted in jobs being shipped overseas. #### em.

These bastards say they are for the working man at the same time they let millions of illegals come in and take their jobs. Don't give me this bull#### about how they only do the jobs Americans won't do. That is bull####. #### em.

These bastards tell us they are for our veterans and a damn thing never seems to change. #### em.

These bastards tell us they are for limited government and balanced budgets. Ha! ####### liars. 

These bastards tell us they are going to fix social security. Every year they steal from it to feed their bull#### social programs, or their special interests or whatever the #### they are spending it on. 

They all say they are against illegal immigration, but they never do a ####### thing about it on either side. #### em.

The GOP spends the 90's bashing Clinton left and right for being a nation builder and then W. comes along and we become nation builders. #### those hypocrites.

#### em all. 

That is why I am voting for Trump. 
Click to expand...
All of this is a frustration vote, SIDA, and IMO neither you nor anyone else should be choosing a President based on that. 

I'm a Steeler fan and a lot of my fellow fans are frustrated by Mike Tomlin. (I'm not.) So this would be like firing Tomlin and hiring some loudmouth in the stands who yells after every failed play. 

 
timschochet said:
All of this is a frustration vote, SIDA, and IMO neither you nor anyone else should be choosing a President based on that. 

I'm a Steeler fan and a lot of my fellow fans are frustrated by Mike Tomlin. (I'm not.) So this would be like firing Tomlin and hiring some loudmouth in the stands who yells after every failed play. 
Click to expand...
What should I be voting on? The delusional notion that one of these other ##########s who is blowing smoke up my ### about how conservative they are are really going to do something conservative once they are elected?

 

 
timschochet said:
All of this is a frustration vote, SIDA, and IMO neither you nor anyone else should be choosing a President based on that. 

I'm a Steeler fan and a lot of my fellow fans are frustrated by Mike Tomlin. (I'm not.) So this would be like firing Tomlin and hiring some loudmouth in the stands who yells after every failed play. 
Click to expand...
Man, you have a lot of nerve telling people how to act.   And it's not a frustration vote.  It's a pissed off as hell vote that you obviously don't understand and never will.  You're so wrapped up in your love for the political process that you will say anything to defend it. NTTIAWWT. 

You sell commercial RE in So Cal and don't deal with anyone that has real life struggles on a day to day business. I deal with people everyday making $15/hr and try to get them into their own homes. The struggle out there is very real and people are very pissed.   

 
timschochet said:
All of this is a frustration vote, SIDA, and IMO neither you nor anyone else should be choosing a President based on that. 

I'm a Steeler fan and a lot of my fellow fans are frustrated by Mike Tomlin. (I'm not.) So this would be like firing Tomlin and hiring some loudmouth in the stands who yells after every failed play. 
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Keep telling people what they should feel and their decisions are not valid Tim. 

Enjoy your Trump presidency.

(oh and what a ####ty example by the way, substitute Whisenhunt for the Cardinals and half of the fans for some loudmouth and you might start to get the scope here) 

 
Rove! said:
2 - crackdown on muslims

those first two are as legitimate of policy positions as anybody else has proposed....

i hate him, but he dies have policy proposals...
Click to expand...
I may have missed it in all the other junk being covered in the media but.. Has anyone asked How is he going to stop Muslims from coming to the US?
Litmus test for incoming visitors where they have to declare their religion :confused:

Now, IF he said he was going to ban visitors from Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria.. OK, something that can be done..
But to say you are going to ban travelers of a particular religion is, IMO :loco:

 
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Kasich needs to drop out, both him and Bush should endorse Rubio.  

I doubt Cruz gets out but him and Rubio need to stop attacking each other and start taking down Trump.

 
timschochet said:
All of this is a frustration vote, SIDA, and IMO neither you nor anyone else should be choosing a President based on that. 

I'm a Steeler fan and a lot of my fellow fans are frustrated by Mike Tomlin. (I'm not.) So this would be like firing Tomlin and hiring some loudmouth in the stands who yells after every failed play. 
Click to expand...
swing and a miss

 
timschochet said:
SIDA! said:
Let's back up on a few things. FWIW, I don't agree with Trump on everything.

But I have reached the point where my dissatisfaction with my party and the way my government operates Trumps these "trivialities." I have honestly reached a point where just about any issue is a triviality to me. I don't give a ####. I don't care what he says he believes in. I just believe that he is going to destroy the status quo and I am not sure that whatever replaces it will be better...but I am damn sure ready to take a chance. Let's hope he does change things...because the next option for a lot of pissed off Americans is going to be their guns.

Everything these whores who have been running for office and winning have said are lies. They are all ####### liars. If I had my way we would snatch them out of their cushy offices in D.C. and tar and feather their pathetic asses. I am serious. #### em all. As far as I am concerned they can all hang from light posts throughout the district. 

These bastards say they support free trade and that that will benefit our country. It has only benefited their corporate overlords and resulted in jobs being shipped overseas. #### em.

These bastards say they are for the working man at the same time they let millions of illegals come in and take their jobs. Don't give me this bull#### about how they only do the jobs Americans won't do. That is bull####. #### em.

These bastards tell us they are for our veterans and a damn thing never seems to change. #### em.

These bastards tell us they are for limited government and balanced budgets. Ha! ####### liars. 

These bastards tell us they are going to fix social security. Every year they steal from it to feed their bull#### social programs, or their special interests or whatever the #### they are spending it on. 

They all say they are against illegal immigration, but they never do a ####### thing about it on either side. #### em.

The GOP spends the 90's bashing Clinton left and right for being a nation builder and then W. comes along and we become nation builders. #### those hypocrites.

#### em all. 

That is why I am voting for Trump. 
Click to expand...
All of this is a frustration vote, SIDA, and IMO neither you nor anyone else should be choosing a President based on that. 

I'm a Steeler fan and a lot of my fellow fans are frustrated by Mike Tomlin. (I'm not.) So this would be like firing Tomlin and hiring some loudmouth in the stands who yells after every failed play. 
Click to expand...
Tim you're a bandwagon Steeler fan in CA complaining about people wanting to finally get with a winner, please don't help.

 
SIDA! said:
Let's back up on a few things. FWIW, I don't agree with Trump on everything.

But I have reached the point where my dissatisfaction with my party and the way my government operates Trumps these "trivialities." I have honestly reached a point where just about any issue is a triviality to me. I don't give a ####. I don't care what he says he believes in. I just believe that he is going to destroy the status quo and I am not sure that whatever replaces it will be better...but I am damn sure ready to take a chance. Let's hope he does change things...because the next option for a lot of pissed off Americans is going to be their guns.

Everything these whores who have been running for office and winning have said are lies. They are all ####### liars. If I had my way we would snatch them out of their cushy offices in D.C. and tar and feather their pathetic asses. I am serious. #### em all. As far as I am concerned they can all hang from light posts throughout the district. 

These bastards say they support free trade and that that will benefit our country. It has only benefited their corporate overlords and resulted in jobs being shipped overseas. #### em.

These bastards say they are for the working man at the same time they let millions of illegals come in and take their jobs. Don't give me this bull#### about how they only do the jobs Americans won't do. That is bull####. #### em.

These bastards tell us they are for our veterans and a damn thing never seems to change. #### em.

These bastards tell us they are for limited government and balanced budgets. Ha! ####### liars. 

These bastards tell us they are going to fix social security. Every year they steal from it to feed their bull#### social programs, or their special interests or whatever the #### they are spending it on. 

They all say they are against illegal immigration, but they never do a ####### thing about it on either side. #### em.

The GOP spends the 90's bashing Clinton left and right for being a nation builder and then W. comes along and we become nation builders. #### those hypocrites.

#### em all. 

That is why I am voting for Trump. 
Click to expand...


I'm just going to say one thing about this, and that is something I touched on in my prior post which you may or may not have been responding to.

And that is that the Bush years basically hollowed out conservatism and the main backbone of the GOP. Basically what you say is true, it's undeniable. I could go on but you made a lot of the points though maybe I would make them differently.

Now it seems weird to say because the GOP right now is at a near all time level of success, they own the legislatures, they own the governorships, they own both houses of Congress. However on the national presidential level the GOP was a rotted out door and Trump just kicked it in.

Which I get. I just don't think this guy should be president.

 
I have honestly reached a point where just about any issue is a triviality to me. I don't give a ####. I don't care what he says he believes in.
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There's an old Italian saying, but it has had a life as a political saying - "Me ne frego." = "I don't give a damn." It's not as simple as it sounds.

 
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One aspect that some folks might consider odd or weird, is that Trump did well in Iowa and NH with moderates. I think the perception is that he is a far right extremist, but it is Cruz who does best with the most conservative, it is Trump who has done best with moderates, and it is Rubio who has done best with both groups.

These are the exit poll results from SC:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/02/20/us/south-carolina-primary-exit-poll.html?_r=0

Trump again won moderates, but this time also won "somewhat conservative".

 
One appealing thing about Trump for republicans is that he is probably the guy most likely to repeal and replace Obamacare.  Just the act of doing that pretty much invalidates the Obama presidency.  That holds appeal.

Trump's opinion on how to replace it seems to be evolving though.  A couple days ago, he came out and said he liked the mandate, which got conservatives very angry.  But I see he revised his statement the other day and said that what he actually liked the idea of forcing insurance companies to cover everyone instead of forcing people to pay a fine if they don't have insurance, and that the price of drugs is too high and that needs reform as well.

To be, it seems like Trump may end up forcing health insurance providers to provide a super low cost plan that provides just some very basic care like maybe 1 free checkup per year.  

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/20/us/politics/donald-trump-in-triage-mode-after-shocking-conservatives-with-health-care-comments.html?_r=0

" In the face of that backlash, Mr. Trump fired back on Twitter that he had been misunderstood. He said he only liked the provision in the law that requires insurers to provide coverage for people who are already ill. He then promised that he intended to repeal the entire piece of legislation, including the mandate.
In an interview with CBS last year he said, “Everybody’s got to be covered” and said he would cut deals with hospitals to care for people who could not afford treatment.  

He also recently began talking about allowing the government to negotiate with drug companies to cut prices.

“If we negotiated the price of drugs,” he said in a town hall-style debate on MSNBC this week, “we’d save $300 billion a year.”

 
Riversco said:
One appealing thing about Trump for republicans is that he is probably the guy most likely to repeal and replace Obamacare.  Just the act of doing that pretty much invalidates the Obama presidency.  That holds appeal.

Trump's opinion on how to replace it seems to be evolving though.  A couple days ago, he came out and said he liked the mandate, which got conservatives very angry.  But I see he revised his statement the other day and said that what he actually liked the idea of forcing insurance companies to cover everyone instead of forcing people to pay a fine if they don't have insurance, and that the price of drugs is too high and that needs reform as well.

To be, it seems like Trump may end up forcing health insurance providers to provide a super low cost plan that provides just some very basic care like maybe 1 free checkup per year.  

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/20/us/politics/donald-trump-in-triage-mode-after-shocking-conservatives-with-health-care-comments.html?_r=0

" In the face of that backlash, Mr. Trump fired back on Twitter that he had been misunderstood. He said he only liked the provision in the law that requires insurers to provide coverage for people who are already ill. He then promised that he intended to repeal the entire piece of legislation, including the mandate.
In an interview with CBS last year he said, “Everybody’s got to be covered” and said he would cut deals with hospitals to care for people who could not afford treatment.  

He also recently began talking about allowing the government to negotiate with drug companies to cut prices.

“If we negotiated the price of drugs,” he said in a town hall-style debate on MSNBC this week, “we’d save $300 billion a year.”
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First of all I don't think anyone can count on Trump to do anything he says. So one day he says he favors the mandate, next day he says nah he meant something else when what he said was plain.

Secondly, this:

[SIZE=12pt]“If we negotiated the price of drugs,” he said in a town hall-style debate on MSNBC this week, “we’d save $300 billion a year.”[/SIZE]
Click to expand...


- Do you know how much that is? That is as much as or more than what the US gov spends on subsidizing drugs all year. He's completely FOS on this. This is bag of magic beans stuff.

 
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Let's take the State of California.

California has 4.76 million uninsured. (In 2013, roughly 6.5 million Californians lacked health care coverage, a number that dropped to 4.76 million last year).  Let's say the cheapest insurance plan in California is $200/month. That works out to about $1 billion per month to cover those 4.76 million people.  But the state of California has a population of 36 million.  32 million people have coverage.  Trump could order insurance companies to increase premiums by an average of $30 per month and that would produce the $1 billion needed to cover the last 4.76 million people.  

The trouble is, this wouldn't be a static system.  Once you do that, people will want to leave their plans for the free version.  Others will migrate to California for the free coverage.  So you'd have to make sure that doesn't happen.  There would have to be some means testing.

 
Trump is going to force insurers to cover everyone how? Obama solved this by asking the insurers to tell the USG how much they think they are owed and the Obama and the HHS would just pay that, then the mandate would force younger people into the pools to balance out the risk. Ideally. Let's leave what's been happening out of it.

But Trump, he says he's going to end the mandate, and end the ACA, and make the insurers cover everyone, and assuming he could pass this as law, these companies are going to stay in business how?

Why pay hospitals for treating people without coverage and also demand that insurers cover everyone at the same time?

 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
First of all I don't think anyone can count on Trump to do anything he says. So one day he says he favors the mandate, next day he says nah he meant something else when what he said was plain.

Secondly, this:

- Do you know how much that is? That is as much as or more than what the US gov spends on subsidizing drugs all year. He's completely FOS on this. This is bag of magic beans stuff.
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Magic beans because if the government negotiated a price that price wouldn't be lower for every consumer and we only count government savings right? 

 
Loan Sharks said:
Magic beans because if the government negotiated a price that price wouldn't be lower for every consumer and we only count government savings right? 
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Well if by Trump's calculation we save the same amount that the USG is spending right now, that sure sounds like he is promising that the US Gov is not spending anything on drugs at all. That was the magic beans. - Or is he saying that the total cost spent by USG and consumers will be lowered by 300 bill total and the government will just keep picking up the tab and the people will be paying less?

And then there's this:

[SIZE=12pt]Health care analysts have said that allowing the government to have more influence in the market this way could have unintended consequences, like suppressing drug company revenues so much that they would cut back on research. [/SIZE]
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Why not just vote for the Democrats then, this their idea? Supposedly driving the pharma companies down further on price will just kill their profit margin. People will be fired, companies will consolidate, research will go down dramatically.

Also for some reason I thought Obama had negotiated this right away as part of the Pharma deal he made to make the ACA happen.

 
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I posted in the Trump thread but I did a quick delegate count and projection. Would like to see where my numbers are off or who thinks otherwise who has done the delegate walk/count. 

GOP Exploit/Avoid: Delegate Count update and projections from here...lot of MOP math so you might need a cold adult beverage. 

On March 1st, roughly 591 delegates are up for grabs. Texas alone is 155 and I would bet Ted Cruz will win that state, too bad he can't win them all. In fact none of the Mar 1st elections will be winner take all states or Nevada the week before. 

-Trump holds a healthy lead in many of the states heading to the polls in less than 10 days. Even with Bush bowing out, Rubio is not likely to win by a landslide to gobble up delegates, they are going to be split up a bunch. 

-Trump is running at about 33-38% but give him 1/3. I gave about 30% to Rubio, 20-25% to Cruz

After March 1 it will look something like this. 

Trump 250

Rubio 150

Cruz 140...wins his state but falls behind Rubio will be the story

Then you have a bunch more states(396 more delegates) with % splits and following the trends you will have something like this going into March 15th. 

Trump 375

Rubio 250

Cruz 220

And it looks like a pretty good race, tight in fact. But the bottom drops out about right there for Cruz and Rubio as most of the states on March 15th are WINNER TAKE ALL and they include 295 delegates from Florida, Ohio, Missouri and Illinois. It's possible Trump could lose Illinois but he has been polling better there as of late. But leave the IL delegates alone, it's still close to 225 delegates Trump will walk away with as he is hammering everyone in the polls in FL and OH right now, MO too. So after March 15th it is likely to look like this...I'll give Rubio a miracle in IL to make this interesting. 

Trump 620

Rubio 350

Cruz  230

There are close to 600 delegates after that in winner take all states, Trump leads almost all of them. Of the other 600 up for grabs in NON winner take all states; Rubio would have to win by such a large margin, it's almost mathematically impossible. 

Trump 1220 plus a % of the other 600...He is likely to have North of 1,400 delegates, even the states who hold back till the convention can't stop him.

Rubio 600 tops...unless he makes a miracle happen over the next several weeks. 

Cruz...I would assume after he runs thru Texas and after he is shutout on March 15th, likely to drop out at that point. 

MfOxP News is projecting DONALD TRUMP as the next GOP nominee to be on the November ballot 

 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
Trump is going to force insurers to cover everyone how? Obama solved this by asking the insurers to tell the USG how much they think they are owed and the Obama and the HHS would just pay that, then the mandate would force younger people into the pools to balance out the risk. Ideally. Let's leave what's been happening out of it.

But Trump, he says he's going to end the mandate, and end the ACA, and make the insurers cover everyone, and assuming he could pass this as law, these companies are going to stay in business how?

Why pay hospitals for treating people without coverage and also demand that insurers cover everyone at the same time?
Click to expand...
Trump's supporters aren't interested in the details of his plans.  They believe he is a very very successful businessman, and they trust him to come up with a good solution even if he doesn't have the plan yet.  I'm just trying to figure out where his line of thinking is going, because he will evolve further I'm sure.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
I posted in the Trump thread but I did a quick delegate count and projection. Would like to see where my numbers are off or who thinks otherwise who has done the delegate walk/count. 

GOP Exploit/Avoid: Delegate Count update and projections from here...lot of MOP math so you might need a cold adult beverage. 

...

MfOxP News is projecting DONALD TRUMP as the next GOP nominee to be on the November ballot 
Click to expand...


Mostly this reminds me I missed your FF posts with the green and red this year.

 
Riversco said:
Trump's supporters aren't interested in the details of his plans.  They believe he is a very very successful businessman, and they trust him to come up with a good solution even if he doesn't have the plan yet.  I'm just trying to figure out where his line of thinking is going, because he will evolve further I'm sure.
Click to expand...
Evolve? How Clintonesque.

Trump will be incredibly easy to manipulate as president, he mostly wants to be liked and popular.

 
Some board glitch. I quoted you then changed my mind. Then quoted MOP and it nested in your quote for some reason. Nothing I could do to remove your part.

 
NorvilleBarnes said:
Negative. Look at all the fights he started  - taking on everyone from debate crowds to the freaking Pope - there's a lot you can criticize Trump for. But not trying to be liked by everyone.
Click to expand...
Look at how he changes positions as soon as he gets pushback. He reverses overnight and claims he never said what he plainly said just 24 hours before.

 
NorvilleBarnes said:
He doubles down more frequently than he changes his position. 
Click to expand...


He does? He's even said he can be extremely politically correct, he's said he will be totally different as president. Even the stuff he says he's been politically incorrect about he will be totally different once in office because it's inappropriate. Once in office he will be "presidential".

 
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