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Official 2016 GOP thread: Is it really going to be Donald Trump?? (1 Viewer)

Could be an interesting time tomorrow night:

Caucus Chaos?

I love the reporting method.  Every caucus site will be counting their results by hand.  They put the ballots in an envelope and write the results on the outside of the envelope.  Then they take a picture of the results and SMS the picture of each envelope to the guy at the state headquarters.  What could possibly go wrong?

-QG

 
Shula-holic said:
Yeah, without looking it up likely about right.  If Trump or Rubio win this term though, she likely is the opponent in 4 years, especially if Bernie goes down in the primary.  That wing of the party is going to be looking for their standard bearer, and I see that being Warren.  She'd drive up even more enthusiasm IMO than Bernie.
Click to expand...
Warren is 66 so she would have one more shot. However "that wing of the party" couldn't get her to run this time when early polls showed her as the clear #2 choice in polls behind Hillary. If they couldn't get her to enter the race this time, extremely unlikely she would run in 2020 and try to beat a sitting president.

 
bolzano said:
The chatter amongst conservative activists is that Cruz needs to replace Rick Tyler with Amanda Carpenter. Tyler is responsible for a number of blunders (e.g., Carson-gate, photoshop-gate, Bible-gate) that have driven up Cruz's negatives, and he's had Cruz off message post-Iowa (attacking Rubio instead of Trump, etc.).
Click to expand...
I love me some Amanda Carpenter  :wub:

 
bolzano said:
While I'm doling out some tough love today, allow me to pass some along to people who really believe Trump is the anti-establishment hero they think he is. Understand this, they're never going to allow him to give that nomination acceptance speech.

Never.
Click to expand...


:tinfoilhat:

 
Article on Bible-gate and the firing of Cruz's communications director:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/22/politics/rick-tyler-marco-rubio-video-apology/

Cruz is really something else (watch the video of his statement):

1) His campaign engages in dishonest and deceitful tactics.

2) When other campaigns call him on it, he says that they are engaging in character attacks, that he will not respond in kind, and will instead focus on the issues.

3) Yet, he spends far more time accusing the other candidates of attacking his character than he does focusing on the issues, which is itself a form of character attack that diverts focus from the issues.

4) Meanwhile, while stating over and over and over and over that his campaign is taking the high road (all while constantly accusing others of dirty politics), his campaign continues to engage in dishonest and deceitful tactics.

5) When it finally becomes so odious that even he can't avoid doing something about it, he takes action, and then has the gall to use that to buttress his claim that his campaign has always been above reproach.

It's really quite remarkable the size of the stones on this guy.

 
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bolzano said:
bigbottom said:
Article on Bible-gate and the firing of Cruz's communications director:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/22/politics/rick-tyler-marco-rubio-video-apology/

Cruz is really something else (watch the video of his statement):

1) His campaign engages in dishonest and deceitful tactics.

2) When other campaigns call him on it, he says that they are engaging in character attacks, that he will not respond in kind, and will instead focus on the issues.

3) Yet, he spends far more time accusing the other candidates of attacking his character than he does focusing on the issues, which is itself a form of character attack that diverts focus from the issues.

4) Meanwhile, while stating over and over and over and over that his campaign is taking the high road (all while constantly accusing others of dirty politics), his campaign continues to engage in dishonest and deceitful tactics.

5) When it finally becomes so odious that even he can't avoid doing something about it, he takes action, and then has the gall to use that to buttress his claim that his campaign has always been above reproach.

It's really quite remarkable the size of the stones on this guy.
Click to expand...


bolzano said:
Well, that's reality the narrative that the Rubio/ Trump campaigns are pushing, at least.
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bigbottom said:
Article on Bible-gate and the firing of Cruz's communications director:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/22/politics/rick-tyler-marco-rubio-video-apology/

Cruz is really something else (watch the video of his statement):

1) His campaign engages in dishonest and deceitful tactics.

2) When other campaigns call him on it, he says that they are engaging in character attacks, that he will not respond in kind, and will instead focus on the issues.

3) Yet, he spends far more time accusing the other candidates of attacking his character than he does focusing on the issues, which is itself a form of character attack that diverts focus from the issues.

4) Meanwhile, while stating over and over and over and over that his campaign is taking the high road (all while constantly accusing others of dirty politics), his campaign continues to engage in dishonest and deceitful tactics.

5) When it finally becomes so odious that even he can't avoid doing something about it, he takes action, and then has the gall to use that to buttress his claim that his campaign has always been above reproach.

It's really quite remarkable the size of the stones on this guy.
Click to expand...
There's a reason Cruz is often compared to a used car salesman. And frankly, if I was a used car salesman it would offend me to be compared to Cruz.

 
bolzano said:
While I'm doling out some tough love today, allow me to pass some along to people who really believe Trump is the anti-establishment hero they think he is. Understand this, they're never going to allow him to give that nomination acceptance speech.

Never.

....

However, if Trump goes to convention the leader without the 1237 needed to clinch the nomination, the GOP gets to play hero for conservatives again by screwing Trump to save the country from Killary/Bernie. Thus the bureaucracy known as the GOP establishment continues for at least another decade or so, because as long as the Republicans don't nominate Trump they will beat Hillary this fall. All the signs of her weakness as a candidate are there. She is their McCain 2008.

This is why Rubio doesn't have to win anything. He just has to stay in long enough for Trump to stop Cruz from consolidating the delegate-rich South, and then Rubio takes it in the more moderate states from there. Nobody gets to 1237, and then whatever rules exist now will be changed in the dead of night to suit their needs faster than you can say "Romney." Rubio comes out of that convention AT WORST the VP. Heck, maybe you'll even get a Romney-Rubio ticket if you're lucky. As my buddy Ed Martin (former head of Missouri GOP) just told me, the RNC has already quietly tripled the amount of unbound delegates they control.

So if you're voting for Trump to burn down the system, I hope you like Rubio's version of the status quo, too, because he's really who you're voting for once the game reaches its conclusion.

You've been fooled, again.

https://www.facebook.com/stevedeace/posts/544621705717873
Click to expand...


- Well....

 
bolzano said:
As a Cruz supporter, I concede that his campaign is responsible its share of mudslinging at Rubio (e.g., photoshop-gate, Bible-gate), but would also note that he didn't instigate the fight, nor has he been more deceitful than Rubio. When Cruz substantively attacked Rubio's record on immigration in the last debate (i.e., Rubio's role in Gang of Eight, his support for a path to citizenship, and his stance on Obama's executive amnesty), Rubio just resorted to ad hominem attacks (he called him a liar, he distorted Cruz's record, he questioned his Hispanic card/ ability to speak Spanish, etc.). Really, Rubio has perhaps been worse than Cruz, since the dishonest/ deceitful tactics are coming from the candidate himself, not from the campaign staff. However, he gets away with it because he's much more likable, has more backing within the media, and so on.
Click to expand...
Lots of words to get at "he did it too/first" :yawn:

 
Higgs said:
The more I see Kasich the more I like the guy.  I'm a softie for hugs I guess.  :shrug:
Click to expand...
John Kasich's Quiet Campaign to Cut Abortion Access

...

But it was not firebombs or bellicose picketers that eventually forced the Center for Choice to close. The clinic packed it in because of a far more discreet, yet in some ways harder to ignore, incursion: a torrent of restrictions on abortions and abortion providers from Ohio’s statehouse.

...

Since entering office in January 2011, John Kasich, Ohio’s governor and now a GOP presidential hopeful, has signed every abortion and women’s reproductive health provision that has landed on his desk. In four and a half years he has enacted 16 legislative proposals related to family planning funding and abortion access across the state.

...

But he said the swift passage of new laws limiting abortion would not have been possible without Kasich’s leadership. “We’ve never had a governor in my lifetime that was laser-focused on the issue of life like John Kasich is today,” he said, later adding, “John Kasich deserves the credit for creating an environment and atmosphere here for the 65 [anti-abortion] members of the House and the 23 [anti-abortion] members of our Senate to pass a litany of pro-life bills.”

...

And he's the moderate Republican.

 
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The planned parenthood funding cuts sicken me. 

And I consider myself a right leaning independent.

 
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whoknew said:
John Kasich's Quiet Campaign to Cut Abortion Access

...

But it was not firebombs or bellicose picketers that eventually forced the Center for Choice to close. The clinic packed it in because of a far more discreet, yet in some ways harder to ignore, incursion: a torrent of restrictions on abortions and abortion providers from Ohio’s statehouse.

...

Since entering office in January 2011, John Kasich, Ohio’s governor and now a GOP presidential hopeful, has signed every abortion and women’s reproductive health provision that has landed on his desk. In four and a half years he has enacted 16 legislative proposals related to family planning funding and abortion access across the state.

...

But he said the swift passage of new laws limiting abortion would not have been possible without Kasich’s leadership. “We’ve never had a governor in my lifetime that was laser-focused on the issue of life like John Kasich is today,” he said, later adding, “John Kasich deserves the credit for creating an environment and atmosphere here for the 65 [anti-abortion] members of the House and the 23 [anti-abortion] members of our Senate to pass a litany of pro-life bills.”
Click to expand...
Good for him.  :thumbup:

 
The Commish said:
What's more entertaining:

1.  Trump defenders

2.  Cruz defenders

:popcorn:
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I could go out and have a beer with a Trump defender. They may not be the most savvy but probably fun enough and sort of entertaining.

Cruz defenders scare the crap out of me. Would avoid at all costs.

 
Sand said:
:tinfoilhat:
Click to expand...
There are people who believe in the power of the elite in this country no matter what. They think that groups like the RNC and DNC can choose the candidate despite what the public wants. And sometimes they can. 

But Donald Trump is leading a populist movement and when populism overwhelms the political system (which is pretty rare), the elites are as helpless as everyone else. They can't stop Trump. 

 
Teddy shifted his immigration stance tonight. Told O'Reilly he would round up and deport all 12mm undocumented immigrants currently in the US:

Link

O’Reilly: Would you round up 12 million illegal aliens here and if so, how?

Cruz: Yes we should deport them. We should build a wall, we should triple the Border Patrol. Federal law requires that anyone here illegally that’s apprehended should be deported.

O’Reilly: Would you go look for them, though? Mr. Trump would look for them to get them out. Would you do that if you were president?

Cruz: Look, Bill, of course you would. That’s what ICE exists for. We have law enforcement that looks for people who are violating the laws, that apprehends them and deports them.

 
By the way, if Hillary or Sanders loses this election, don't look for Liz Warren in 4 years. She doesn't want it. And the Dems have a number of young rising stars, like Corey Booker, Julian Castro, Gavin Newsom, just name a few. 

 
I'm perplexed at the lack of Republican anger at all of these candidates, including Trump.

There's a reasonable case to be made for smaller government but you can't win sticking to the extremist views these candidates have. It's like you're happy to win local/state elections where extremism works and leave the Presidency to Democrats.

 
bolzano said:
As a Cruz supporter, I concede that his campaign is responsible its share of mudslinging at Rubio (e.g., photoshop-gate, Bible-gate), but would also note that he didn't instigate the fight, nor has he been more deceitful than Rubio. When Cruz substantively attacked Rubio's record on immigration in the last debate (i.e., Rubio's role in Gang of Eight, his support for a path to citizenship, and his stance on Obama's executive amnesty), Rubio just resorted to ad hominem attacks (he called him a liar, he distorted Cruz's record, he questioned his Hispanic card/ ability to speak Spanish, etc.). Really, Rubio has perhaps been worse than Cruz, since the dishonest/ deceitful tactics are coming from the candidate himself, not from the campaign staff. However, he gets away with it because he's much more likable, has more backing within the media, and so on.
Click to expand...
Are you upset because Rubio is worse than Cruz or are you upset because Cruz has done nothing about it?

 
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timschochet said:
By the way, if Hillary or Sanders loses this election, don't look for Liz Warren in 4 years. She doesn't want it. And the Dems have a number of young rising stars, like Corey Booker, Julian Castro, Gavin Newsom, just name a few. 
Click to expand...
Corey Booker and about 8 other Dems would have been great candidates this time (though not Newsom and Castro, who is just a suit).

 
bolzano said:
Mark Levin wrote an article tonight that echoes my post from this afternoon.

Levin: Stop The Lies, Marco

A little while back, I argued that Marco Rubio's tactics in attacking Ted Cruz's Senate record on immigration and national defense, among other things, were Alinskyite.  They were and still are simply and demonstrably dishonest.  Yet he persists, knowing full well that by the time the truth catches up with him, if ever, the damage will have been done.  More recently, Rubio and his campaign team have intensified and broadened their Alinskyite tactics, now focusing on the ultimate personal smear -- that Ted Cruz is a serial liar.  Even in this, Rubio is not original.  Of course, Donald Trump has been calling his opponents liars as an almost Tourette's-like response against anyone who reminds him of his past but recent support for leftists and leftist causes, some of whom and which he still embraces. 

...

https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/02/stop-the-lies-marco
Click to expand...


Why are these idiots attacking each other and not Trump, the actual front runner?

Cruz's embracing of Trump early and for so long is going to go down as one of the biggest blunders in recent nomination history. You can put that next to Sanders high fiving Hillary on the emails.

 
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bolzano said:
Mark Levin wrote an article tonight that echoes my post from this afternoon.

Levin: Stop The Lies, Marco

A little while back, I argued that Marco Rubio's tactics in attacking Ted Cruz's Senate record on immigration and national defense, among other things, were Alinskyite.  They were and still are simply and demonstrably dishonest.  Yet he persists, knowing full well that by the time the truth catches up with him, if ever, the damage will have been done.  More recently, Rubio and his campaign team have intensified and broadened their Alinskyite tactics, now focusing on the ultimate personal smear -- that Ted Cruz is a serial liar.  Even in this, Rubio is not original.  Of course, Donald Trump has been calling his opponents liars as an almost Tourette's-like response against anyone who reminds him of his past but recent support for leftists and leftist causes, some of whom and which he still embraces. 

But Rubio's smears are part of a more deliberative and unrelenting propaganda campaign. They are now at the core of his campaign effort to dislodge Cruz and clear the field against Trump. 

Saul Alinksy explained it this way:  “Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it.”  Rubio fancies himself the next Ronald Reagan.  But such self-aggrandizement is unmerited.  He's more Alinsky.  Indeed, it was Reagan who, in his 1966 race for Governor of California, declared: "Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican."  I doubt Reagan would approve of Rubio's campaign of character assassination against Cruz.  In all the years I campaigned for Reagan and worked for his administration, I cannot recall Reagan ever talking about another Republican this way.  Certainly not as a relentless propaganda campaign.  

Rubio, like Trump, has difficulty explaining his past positions.  For Trump, it doesn't seem to matter.  Moreover, Trump's resort to personal attacks can be followed up with evidence of his business accomplishments.  But Rubio has no significant accomplishments other than his election to various public offices.  He has few if any accomplishments outside of politics and virtually no accomplishments in public office as a U.S. senator.  In fact, Rubio's most notorious public act was as a senator, i.e., his leading role in crafting one of the most disastrous immigration bills in modern times, in knowing violation of his pledge to the voters of Florida in his last election.  Not only has Rubio's immigration record gone from anti-amnesty to pro-amnesty to utter incoherence, but the issue of his own integrity is at stake.  Thus, he employs Alinsky's rule and accuses Cruz of what he has actually become.  He now focuses the media on his own accusations rather than his own thin record.

Campaigns are usually tough.  No question about that.  As I write this, Cruz just dropped his communications director for re-tweeting a false tweet.  Perhaps there's more to it.  Trump fired some of his staff early on.  Carson did the same more recently.  But when the candidate himself (Rubio) is the source of the Alinskyite tactics, not a staffer acting on his own, that's an entirely different matter. I had high hopes for Rubio when I was among his earliest supporters against Charlie Crist in Florida.  But I'm deeply disappointed in him, as are many who voted for him.  The growing endorsements for Rubio's presidential candidacy from establishment Republicans, most of whom cannot better articulate his accomplishments than he can, emphasize the point.  

It is not too late for Rubio to reverse course.  But I doubt he will.  Polling in South Carolina shows that he (along with Trump) was successful with this tactic.

https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/02/stop-the-lies-marco
Click to expand...
Levin is first a hack, second a Cruz supporter. He's totally believable. <- that's sarcasm in case you missed it.

"If you're inclined to trust Mr. Levin's word, you ought to be warned that a wiser course is to verify his assertions for yourself–inside the bubble he has created, you're liable to be misled." http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2010/04/29/mark-levins-big-lie.html

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Yeah I read that a lot, we're keyboard yahoos though, these guys are supposed to be pros. Dumb.
Click to expand...
Honestly, I think being a "pro" was probably a disadvantage in this case.  This Trump phenomenon is just unprecedented in our history.  The last few election cycles are littered with candidates like Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain that grabbed the spotlight for a month or two then faded into oblivion.  It made a lot of sense for people to expect Trump to have a similar trajectory. That view was reflected everywhere -- pundits, the betting markets, anecdotal conversations I had with friends and family (both Republicans and Democrats).  Only a genius like SIDA was able to see this coming back in September or October.

 
All of the Republican candidates failed to recognize Trump as a threat. They assumed that most voters were smart enough to see through Trump's vague rhetoric and empty promises. But when you've spent the last 25 years cultivating the anti-elites, you shouldn't be surprised when stupid chickens come home to roost.

Cruz's embracing of Trump early and for so long is going to go down as one of the biggest blunders in recent nomination history.
Click to expand...
 
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bolzano said:
Mark Levin wrote an article tonight that echoes my post from this afternoon.

Levin: Stop The Lies, Marco

A little while back, I argued that Marco Rubio's tactics in attacking Ted Cruz's Senate record on immigration and national defense, among other things, were Alinskyite.  They were and still are simply and demonstrably dishonest.  Yet he persists, knowing full well that by the time the truth catches up with him, if ever, the damage will have been done.  More recently, Rubio and his campaign team have intensified and broadened their Alinskyite tactics, now focusing on the ultimate personal smear -- that Ted Cruz is a serial liar.  Even in this, Rubio is not original.  Of course, Donald Trump has been calling his opponents liars as an almost Tourette's-like response against anyone who reminds him of his past but recent support for leftists and leftist causes, some of whom and which he still embraces. 

But Rubio's smears are part of a more deliberative and unrelenting propaganda campaign. They are now at the core of his campaign effort to dislodge Cruz and clear the field against Trump. 

Saul Alinksy explained it this way:  “Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it.”  Rubio fancies himself the next Ronald Reagan.  But such self-aggrandizement is unmerited.  He's more Alinsky.  Indeed, it was Reagan who, in his 1966 race for Governor of California, declared: "Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican."  I doubt Reagan would approve of Rubio's campaign of character assassination against Cruz.  In all the years I campaigned for Reagan and worked for his administration, I cannot recall Reagan ever talking about another Republican this way.  Certainly not as a relentless propaganda campaign.  

Rubio, like Trump, has difficulty explaining his past positions.  For Trump, it doesn't seem to matter.  Moreover, Trump's resort to personal attacks can be followed up with evidence of his business accomplishments.  But Rubio has no significant accomplishments other than his election to various public offices.  He has few if any accomplishments outside of politics and virtually no accomplishments in public office as a U.S. senator.  In fact, Rubio's most notorious public act was as a senator, i.e., his leading role in crafting one of the most disastrous immigration bills in modern times, in knowing violation of his pledge to the voters of Florida in his last election.  Not only has Rubio's immigration record gone from anti-amnesty to pro-amnesty to utter incoherence, but the issue of his own integrity is at stake.  Thus, he employs Alinsky's rule and accuses Cruz of what he has actually become.  He now focuses the media on his own accusations rather than his own thin record.

Campaigns are usually tough.  No question about that.  As I write this, Cruz just dropped his communications director for re-tweeting a false tweet.  Perhaps there's more to it.  Trump fired some of his staff early on.  Carson did the same more recently.  But when the candidate himself (Rubio) is the source of the Alinskyite tactics, not a staffer acting on his own, that's an entirely different matter. I had high hopes for Rubio when I was among his earliest supporters against Charlie Crist in Florida.  But I'm deeply disappointed in him, as are many who voted for him.  The growing endorsements for Rubio's presidential candidacy from establishment Republicans, most of whom cannot better articulate his accomplishments than he can, emphasize the point.  

It is not too late for Rubio to reverse course.  But I doubt he will.  Polling in South Carolina shows that he (along with Trump) was successful with this tactic.

https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/02/stop-the-lies-marco
Click to expand...
I'm am undecided anyone but Trump and will be voting in the Republican primary.  I have been following the race closely and watched every debate.  I'm a dyed in the wool Catholic and came into this race leaning toward Rubio.

But I have to say, from where I stand, Rubio and Trump come across less credible in this liar liar business.  I am officially leaning Cruz or Kasich at this point.

 
Psychopav said:
I'm am undecided anyone but Trump and will be voting in the Republican primary.  I have been following the race closely and watched every debate.  I'm a dyed in the wool Catholic and came into this race leaning toward Rubio.

But I have to say, from where I stand, Rubio and Trump come across less credible in this liar liar business.  I am officially leaning Cruz or Kasich at this point.
Click to expand...
You want honesty and are thinking about going with Cruz? :crazy:

 
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