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Official 2016 GOP thread: Is it really going to be Donald Trump?? (4 Viewers)

538 updated from last night and have Trump at 108% of his target number of delegates for this point.  Cruz is only at 69%.  I'm not sure Rubio dropping out would make much a difference since a lot of Rubio's votes would go to Kasich.  It seems Cruz really needs Rubio and Kasich to drop out.  Maybe after Ohio and Florida?  Probably doubtful.

 
It's comforting to see so many liberal fanboy posts acting like Trump will be laughed off the National stage when it's Trump vs Clinton...to act like Hilary doesn't have as many warts or holes in her wall as Trump is laughable. 

Clinton has had 20-30 years to make things happen. And honestly she has done some good stuff, I posted several of her accomplishments but the Obama administration that she worked under as of late has not been great for most regular folks and it was supposed to be an incredible movement in wealth and the complete opposite has happened. 

-I also think over the last 10-20 years a lot of working class Americans realize the DNC is not really their friend. Lots of folks making $50,000 a year realize they are now considered rich by the DNC and will never have any buying power in life...ever!

I'm not saying Trump will fix this but Trump is the final straw for many. He will be sent in to scare the folks there already, if that doesn't work we might actually get rioting in this country before the end of my life which is really all you can hope for with a front row seat at the freak show.  

 
I think it has more to do with a lot of people no longer trusting the establishment. Either do something different or keep electing the same lying, crooked, career politicians.
I understand being upset with the status quo. But Trump isn't the answer for anti-establishment. The guy funded and endorsed previous candidates for President. Sure I guess he's "ant-establishment" because he isn't PC. But voting for Trump and thinking he's so much different than Hilary, Cruz, Rubio, etc. isn't correct.

 
538 updated from last night and have Trump at 108% of his target number of delegates for this point.  Cruz is only at 69%.  I'm not sure Rubio dropping out would make much a difference since a lot of Rubio's votes would go to Kasich.  It seems Cruz really needs Rubio and Kasich to drop out.  Maybe after Ohio and Florida?  Probably doubtful.
I posted an article yesterday.. basically it all comes down to Ohio and Florida..If Trump wins both of those then it is all over no matter what Rubio or Kasich do..

The numbers just don't work to stop a Trump :tfp:

 
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I posted an article yesterday.. basically it all comes down to Ohio and Florida..If Trump wins both of those then it is all over no matter what Rubio or Kasich do..

The numbers just don't work to stop a Trump :tfp:
OK, but it seems like the most likely scenario is Trump wins Florida but Kasich wins Ohio.  If that happens, we have a lot of race left.

 
I posted an article yesterday.. basically it all comes down to Ohio and Florida..If Trump wins both of those then it is all over no matter what Rubio or Kasich do..

The numbers just don't work to stop a Trump :tfp:
OK, but it seems like the most likely scenario is Trump wins Florida but Kasich wins Ohio.  If that happens, we have a lot of race left.
Hopefully.. Last year I'd have said there was only a .00000000000000000000001% chance I'd ever vote for Hillary..

Short of Kasich being the GOP nominee that goes up to 1%   as I don't trust Cruz or Trump to do what is right for the country.

Not saying I trust Hillary to do what's right... But with the Senate more than likely staying GOP controlled for at least the next 2 years, at least there would be someone to stop the :loco:

 
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He is like the Jack Nicklaus of primaries
 
we all have to root hard for somebody to step and beat him in Ohio and Florida but I don't see an Arnie or Lee Trevino in the bunch.   Although the truth is John Daly would probably come out and endorse him anyway.  
 
The thing that kills me is that the Republicans had a dream situation for this election.  They vilified Obama before he took office and have spent decades doing the same with Hilary, gerrymandering the house and taking the Senate.  All they had to do was pick a relatively moderate candidate and they had a super majority locked up.  

And you guys picked trump and cruz.  

I would vote for Kasich over hillary.  I know a lot of other people who would too.  For Rubio,  I'd listen to the debates and probably just stay home.  But I can't even comprehend either of those guys having a super majority and changing the face of the Supreme court. 

And for all you guys talking about the establishment who also supported the tea party,  great job.   Your guys divided your own party,  scared the crap out of the rest of us by going to the brink of losing our credit rating,  put extremely opinionated but highly uneducated people in positions of power theyshould never have held, and effectively slammed the door on the u.s. getting a viable third party of any kind for the next few decades.   Look at how little traction the equally nutso 99 percenters got.  It's just over.   Republicans vs democrats for the rest of our lives,  putting out candidates like trump and Hillary.  

####.

 
Updated odds of becoming President:

Clinton    62.7%
Trump    21.4%
Sanders    6.4%
Cruz    4.6%
Kasich    3.1%
Rubio    1.9%
    
Dem    69.1%
Rep    30.9%


Net result of last night is a ~1% decline for Hillary, +2% for Sanders with no real changes on Rep side.  Dems now favored 69/31.

 
538 updated from last night and have Trump at 108% of his target number of delegates for this point.  Cruz is only at 69%.  I'm not sure Rubio dropping out would make much a difference since a lot of Rubio's votes would go to Kasich.  It seems Cruz really needs Rubio and Kasich to drop out.  Maybe after Ohio and Florida?  Probably doubtful.
Trump's results last night now give him a pretty real possibility to get to 1237 if he just wins FL, but loses OH.  If he wins both, this is over. 

 
Michigan had 1.25 million people vote and were allotted 59 delegates  (21,000 voters per delegate)

Mississippi had 400,000 people vote and were allotted 40 delegates  (10,000 votes per delegate)

Idaho had 200,000 people vote and were allotted 32 delegates   (6250 votes per delegate) 

Hawaii had 13,000 people come out to support their candidate and were allotted 19 delegates    (684 supporters per delegate)

seems fair

 
Hopefully.. Last year I'd have said there was only a .00000000000000000000001% chance I'd ever vote for Hillary..

Short of Kasich being the GOP nominee that goes up to 1%   as I don't trust Cruz or Trump to do what is right for the country.

Not saying I trust Hillary to do what's right... But with the Senate more than likely staying GOP controlled for at least the next 2 years, at least there would be someone to stop the :loco:
If you don't trust someone to do what's right, you'd have to be pretty crazy to vote for them as President. 

 
Still taking in that the republicans are picking the guy who just spent 20 minutes talking about his steaks and water businesses - all named after himself - complete with on stage props. And, all the networks covered it for at least 45 minutes. 

Cruz, Rubio, Kasich you guys must suck really, really bad. How did you get elected anywhere to begin with?

 
Rubio getting 0 delegates last night is just a Democrat dream. Trump and Cruz have so many more electability issues than him. It's a beautiful thing. 
While I agree, I'd want no part of Trump in the general.  Everything about his campaign is unpredictable.

 
Hopefully.. Last year I'd have said there was only a .00000000000000000000001% chance I'd ever vote for Hillary..

Short of Kasich being the GOP nominee that goes up to 1%   as I don't trust Cruz or Trump to do what is right for the country.

Not saying I trust Hillary to do what's right... But with the Senate more than likely staying GOP controlled for at least the next 2 years, at least there would be someone to stop the :loco:
If you don't trust someone to do what's right, you'd have to be pretty crazy to vote for them as President. 
It comes down to the :loco: you know that can be kept in check vs. the :loco: you don't know that might be part of a group that has full control..

 
It's comforting to see so many liberal fanboy posts acting like Trump will be laughed off the National stage when it's Trump vs Clinton...to act like Hilary doesn't have as many warts or holes in her wall as Trump is laughable. 

Clinton has had 20-30 years to make things happen. And honestly she has done some good stuff, I posted several of her accomplishments but the Obama administration that she worked under as of late has not been great for most regular folks and it was supposed to be an incredible movement in wealth and the complete opposite has happened. 

-I also think over the last 10-20 years a lot of working class Americans realize the DNC is not really their friend. Lots of folks making $50,000 a year realize they are now considered rich by the DNC and will never have any buying power in life...ever!

I'm not saying Trump will fix this but Trump is the final straw for many. He will be sent in to scare the folks there already, if that doesn't work we might actually get rioting in this country before the end of my life which is really all you can hope for with a front row seat at the freak show.  
So in your mind a vote for Trump and the GOP is a vote to redistribute earning power to the masses?   :lmao:

 
I'll tell you,  if there's one guy I want to make sure the little guy doesn't lose his shirt, it's a billionaire casino owner. 

 
I know a lot of people, myself included, who are sick of the establishment.  That doesn't mean we vote for someone who has zero substance behind what they say, let alone acts like he's running for class president.  
Exactly how I feel as well. We need to change Washington, everything from special interests and IMO getting term limits on all congressmen and senators (8 years max then back to work in society no more career congressman and senators).

But Trump and Sanders are not the right guys to lead this change. One has zero substance and is totally full of #### and the other is so far left and defies what capitalism is really all about. But I commend them both for speaking what a lot of Americans are thinking. Washington is broken and it's time to fix it. But we need better men/woman then them to lead this change.

So where is that moderate candidate who is sensible, honest and ready to compromise and be a leader of the country? I don't see one other than John Kasich and in a strong field he would not even look that great. The field is so weak and so incredibly flush with frauds he stands out like a beacon of light through a thick fog of uncertainty.  

Whomever wins this election.....the sun will rise, we will survive and the world will not end. We just will have to hope it works out while we await the next great President of our country to rise up and make themselves known in the next election cycle.

 
Still taking in that the republicans are picking the guy who just spent 20 minutes talking about his steaks and water businesses - all named after himself - complete with on stage props. And, all the networks covered it for at least 45 minutes. 

Cruz, Rubio, Kasich you guys must suck really, really bad. How did you get elected anywhere to begin with?
"Ohio Gov. John Kasich gets a 62 - 29 percent job approval rating, his highest ever. The Republican presidential contender even gets 42 percent of Democrats, with 45 percent disapproving. "

 
"Ohio Gov. John Kasich gets a 62 - 29 percent job approval rating, his highest ever. The Republican presidential contender even gets 42 percent of Democrats, with 45 percent disapproving. "
And yet he can't beat Donald. He talks about crazy stuff,  isn't really a conservative, flip flops on almost every policy he has actually laid out, talked about his schlong and his steaks, and yet he mops the floor with these guys. 

Sweet party you guys have right now.

 
And yet he can't beat Donald. He talks about crazy stuff,  isn't really a conservative, flip flops on almost every policy he has actually laid out, talked about his schlong and his steaks, and yet he mops the floor with these guys. 

Sweet party you guys have right now.
I see you're being obtuse for the sake of getting into an internet argument. Cool stuff, bro.

 
I see you're being obtuse for the sake of getting into an internet argument. Cool stuff, bro.
Don't really see it that way. Getting your hat handed to you by Donald makes you a flawed national candidate or something is really wrong with the party.

Glad he's popular in Ohio. 

 
Don't really see it that way. Getting your hat handed to you by Donald makes you a flawed national candidate or something is really wrong with the party.

Glad he's popular in Ohio. 
Ok, so let's pretend you're not fishing for a fight.

You're just figuring out there's a fracture in the Republican party? You're just now figuring out Donald isn't the best candidate for the job even though he's ahead in the polls?

I guess I'm struggling to see what original point you're trying to make here.

The anti-establishment vote is very real, and it isn't exactly exclusive to the R side of things this primary season.

 
Branding yourself as anti establishment is the Republican version of hope and change. 
Give The Donald credit for one thing, he's the first Republican in a while promising to actually do things if elected. Now, they're really stoopid things but it's still a break from the typical obstruction against change that is usually foremost. If nothing else, maybe he can get more of the GOP base thinking that change isn't necessarily bad.

Also -- is anybody surprised that Peens is a Trumpkin?  :lmao:

 
Ok, so let's pretend you're not fishing for a fight.

You're just figuring out there's a fracture in the Republican party? You're just now figuring out Donald isn't the best candidate for the job even though he's ahead in the polls?

I guess I'm struggling to see what original point you're trying to make here.

The anti-establishment vote is very real, and it isn't exactly exclusive to the R side of things this primary season.
I think it's more than just the anti-establishment vote.  Only one party runs on the message that government is the problem.  When the Tea Party Republicans started unseating established Republican law makers, the party (and their press agents) chose largely to embrace that movement instead of condemning it.   Guys like Cantor and Paul Ryan for Christ's sake were labeled RINOs.  You can't let that happen and then wonder why John Kasich doesn't do better in a national GOP campaign.  John Kasich's entire message is that he's an adult and a technocrat who can balance budgets.  They could have tried that same message with MItt in 2012 but instead the primaries forced him to pretend to be more in line with the crazies that were already hijacking the party. 

I get that Trump is only winning a controlling plurality, but for most of this campaign season, Kasich has run behind Rubio who is a walking kewpie doll that says "Reagan" every time you pull his string.

 
just put this together..


 


Total Votes


delegates alloted


Caucus or Primary


voters per delegate


% vote counted


Hawaii


13,228


19


Caucus


696


100.00%


Alaska


21,930


28


Caucus


783


97.00%


Maine


18,382


23


Caucus


799


100.00%


Nevada


74,878


30


Caucus


2496


96.00%


Minnesota


112,549


38


Caucus


2962


100.00%


Iowa


186,743


30


Caucus


6225


99.00%


Puerto Rico


36,393


23


primary


1582


100.00%


Kansa


72,253


40


primary


1806


97.00%


Vermont


58,762


16


primary


3673


95.00%


Kentucky


225,709


46


primary


4907


99.00%


Louisiana


291,926


46


primary


6346


91.00%


Idaho


214,884


32


primary


6715


96.00%


Mississippi


394,167


40


primary


9854


95.00%


Arkansas


396,523


40


primary


9913


100.00%


Oklahoma


452,731


43


primary


10529


100.00%


New Hampshire


279,130


23


primary


12136


100.00%


Tennessee


834,939


58


primary


14396


100.00%


Massachusetts


614,668


42


primary


14635


100.00%


South Carolina


797,917


50


primary


15958


99.00%


Georgia


1,275,601


76


primary


16784


92.00%


Texas


2,737,248


155


primary


17660


100.00%


Virginia


1,012,807


49


primary


20670


99.00%


Alabama


837,632


40


primary


20941


100.00%


Michigan


1,253,917


59


primary


21253


97.00%




 
I think it's more than just the anti-establishment vote.  Only one party runs on the message that government is the problem.  When the Tea Party Republicans started unseating established Republican law makers, the party (and their press agents) chose largely to embrace that movement instead of condemning it.   Guys like Cantor and Paul Ryan for Christ's sake were labeled RINOs.  You can't let that happen and then wonder why John Kasich doesn't do better in a national GOP campaign.  John Kasich's entire message is that he's an adult and a technocrat who can balance budgets.  They could have tried that same message with MItt in 2012 but instead the primaries forced him to pretend to be more in line with the crazies that were already hijacking the party. 

I get that Trump is only winning a controlling plurality, but for most of this campaign season, Kasich has run behind Rubio who is a walking kewpie doll that says "Reagan" every time you pull his string.
I don't really disagree with any of this. Sad state of affairs, because I truly think a guy like Kasich (regardless of party affiliation) would be good for this country right now.

 
The only person who I feel will do the right thing  for our country is TRUMP. I do , I really do. At the end of the day I think on most issues he will be just to the left of center. I think Donald is the only choice , believe me , he will end up being a fantastic president. Simply fantastic president. 

 
just put this together..


 


Total Votes


delegates alloted


Caucus or Primary


voters per delegate


% vote counted


Hawaii


13,228


19


Caucus


696


100.00%


Alaska


21,930


28


Caucus


783


97.00%


Maine


18,382


23


Caucus


799


100.00%


Nevada


74,878


30


Caucus


2496


96.00%


Minnesota


112,549


38


Caucus


2962


100.00%


Iowa


186,743


30


Caucus


6225


99.00%


Puerto Rico


36,393


23


primary


1582


100.00%


Kansa


72,253


40


primary


1806


97.00%


Vermont


58,762


16


primary


3673


95.00%


Kentucky


225,709


46


primary


4907


99.00%


Louisiana


291,926


46


primary


6346


91.00%


Idaho


214,884


32


primary


6715


96.00%


Mississippi


394,167


40


primary


9854


95.00%


Arkansas


396,523


40


primary


9913


100.00%


Oklahoma


452,731


43


primary


10529


100.00%


New Hampshire


279,130


23


primary


12136


100.00%


Tennessee


834,939


58


primary


14396


100.00%


Massachusetts


614,668


42


primary


14635


100.00%


South Carolina


797,917


50


primary


15958


99.00%


Georgia


1,275,601


76


primary


16784


92.00%


Texas


2,737,248


155


primary


17660


100.00%


Virginia


1,012,807


49


primary


20670


99.00%


Alabama


837,632


40


primary


20941


100.00%


Michigan


1,253,917


59


primary


21253


97.00%
Oh these charts screw up my screen on my phone. Would love to stick a hot poker up your ### for it

 
Give The Donald credit for one thing, he's the first Republican in a while promising to actually do things if elected. Now, they're really stoopid things but it's still a break from the typical obstruction against change that is usually foremost. If nothing else, maybe he can get more of the GOP base thinking that change isn't necessarily bad.

Also -- is anybody surprised that Peens is a Trumpkin?  :lmao:
Here's a plan for action within first 100 days in office: https://www.johnkasich.com/resultsnow/

I think the fundamental difference is that you see undoing things that shouldn't have been done in the first place as being against change.

 
The only person who I feel will do the right thing  for our country is TRUMP. I do , I really do. At the end of the day I think on most issues he will be just to the left of center. I think Donald is the only choice , believe me , he will end up being a fantastic president. Simply fantastic president. 
:fishing: and a good one at that :thumbup:

 

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