Official 2016 GOP thread: Is it really going to be Donald Trump?? (2 Viewers)

[John Bender]

Not sure why what I wrote is so controversial. Who was the last Republican President to lose Florida? I can't recall. It's really, really hard to win without Florida. 

I didn't find it controversial, just inane blabber. That's why I asked "huh?"

 

[dparker713]

I don't know understand how anyone can actually believe this.  Sure, she has a chance of winning.  But to act as if it's a done deal?  I don't think she has the ability to beat Trump.  She can't even put away Bernie Sanders.  She's closing in on the end of the primary season and she's still losing states.  He's dispatched 16 people and is gaining momentum despite have little support from the out-of-touch GOP.  

You're conveniently ignoring his 70% unfavorables. 

 

[shader]

You're conveniently ignoring his 70% unfavorables. 

According to the Huffington post polls, Hilary has a 54% unfavorability rating (and rising), and Trump has a 58% unfavorability rating (it's dropping)

Not sure where the 70% number comes from.

 

[Higgs]

On top of that, buried within the Q poll today was that 47% of the Bernie supporters polled were willing to switch to Trump.  Huge surprise that this number is as high as it is.  Most of the Republican strategists thought it was about half that amount.

 

[[scooter]]

On top of that, buried within the Q poll today was that 47% of the Bernie supporters polled were willing to switch to Trump.  Huge surprise that this number is as high as it is.  Most of the Republican strategists thought it was about half that amount.

Where are you seeing that? This is the latest Quinnipiac poll, and it says nothing about Bernie supporters being willing to switch to Trump.

 

[rustycolts]

Not sure why what I wrote is so controversial. Who was the last Republican President to lose Florida? I can't recall. It's really, really hard to win without Florida. 

Coolidge

 

[[scooter]]

You're conveniently ignoring his 70% unfavorables. 

According to the Huffington post polls, Hilary has a 54% unfavorability rating (and rising), and Trump has a 58% unfavorability rating (it's dropping)

Not sure where the 70% number comes from.

Chronological tracker of Trump's unfavorability rating

On June 16th he was at 60%. The last month he's averaged 63%.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Not sure why what I wrote is so controversial. Who was the last Republican President to lose Florida? I can't recall. It's really, really hard to win without Florida. 

I don't even bother with the Trump threads as so many of us tried to tell so many of you what was likely to happen and I haven't seen a one of you admit you were totally clueless and blindsided by Trump. 

I'm guessing from the tones in these posts that Tim has the audacity to post about Florida as if Clinton is going to take this state? You need a serious uptick in the meds if this is the case. Have you ever visited Florida or especially South Florida with WPB/Tump HQ, Ft Laud/Miami where Trump has building after building along the beach with his name attached or on the property. Trump has ALL the momentum in Florida right now. Trump stickers are everywhere, it is nothing you need to hide from in Florida. 

I was at the Hard Rock Live watching Bill Burr on Friday Night and he had to cut short his Trump rant as the crowd got very irate and an entire row of a section started fighting and had to be shown the door, I'm not kidding. Burr tweeted about it that night mentioning there were a few crazies...there were a lot more, it's Florida for goodness sake.

If any Leftists have hope of taking Florida away from Trump...this state leans right more than you can imagine. We elected Rick Scott for 2 terms and that guy is a 1st class butthole so please don't take away our claim on crazyville thinking Trump has no chance here. I think he's the favorite if the polls are showing him anything close to 50-50 here. Clinton has zero presence here right now. People see and have seen Trump on everything down here for many years. He beat Rubio so bad in his own state he quit the race, nuff said. 

 

[sho nuff]

polls don't matter...polls don't matter...polls don't matter.

Wait...Trump is closing.  Hey guys, look at these polls.

 

[Statorama]

I don't know about your state, but Trump will get destroyed in Wisconsin.  I mean a full on depantsing 

 

[timschochet]

I don't even bother with the Trump threads as so many of us tried to tell so many of you what was likely to happen and I haven't seen a one of you admit you were totally clueless and blindsided by Trump. 

I'm guessing from the tones in these posts that Tim has the audacity to post about Florida as if Clinton is going to take this state? You need a serious uptick in the meds if this is the case. Have you ever visited Florida or especially South Florida with WPB/Tump HQ, Ft Laud/Miami where Trump has building after building along the beach with his name attached or on the property. Trump has ALL the momentum in Florida right now. Trump stickers are everywhere, it is nothing you need to hide from in Florida. 

I was at the Hard Rock Live watching Bill Burr on Friday Night and he had to cut short his Trump rant as the crowd got very irate and an entire row of a section started fighting and had to be shown the door, I'm not kidding. Burr tweeted about it that night mentioning there were a few crazies...there were a lot more, it's Florida for goodness sake.

If any Leftists have hope of taking Florida away from Trump...this state leans right more than you can imagine. We elected Rick Scott for 2 terms and that guy is a 1st class butthole so please don't take away our claim on crazyville thinking Trump has no chance here. I think he's the favorite if the polls are showing him anything close to 50-50 here. Clinton has zero presence here right now. People see and have seen Trump on everything down here for many years. He beat Rubio so bad in his own state he quit the race, nuff said. 

Hillary has led in every poll in Florida (though the latest ones are tight.) 

Not sure what you mean by my "audacity". I would never guarantee that Hillary will win Florida. As usual, it's the key (or at least one major key) to the entire election. But I think she'll win. The main reason is, when all has been said and done, Trump has so antagonized Latinos that he has no chance to win them back, and according to everything I read they're registering in huge numbers in your state. I believe that will be decisive. 

 

[Riversco]

Suppose the polls were 50-50 in each of those states- that would be the mathematical equivalent of a coin flip, right? So even if that were the case, Trump's chances of winning the election would be the same as having to flip heads 5 times in a row- about 3%. 

So basically it's almost impossible without Florida. 

that's not how polls work.   If all the polls are showing a candidate with a slim lead of 3%-5% come november, that state almost always goes the way the polls do.  its pretty rare for a state to be so incredibly close that its ever a 50-50 proposition, and certainly never 5 key states at once.  

The keys for trump are when he becomes the presumptive nominee (just occurred), when he picks a veep, what bump he gets coming out of the convention, and what bumps he gets after each debate.  Those are the things that can change the race.  As it stands right now, Trump has a 0% chance of winning.

 

[Riversco]

If anything flips the race to Trump, I think it will either be Trump picking Kasich as veep and that causing PA to switch to Trump, or Trump totally embarrassing Clinton in a debate.   

 

[Riversco]

Trump has a very low bar now.  If he has a very strong debate in October, it could dramatically shift some key numbers because people won't be expecting it.  But again, very unlikely to occur.

 

[timschochet]

Trump has a very low bar now.  If he has a very strong debate in October, it could dramatically shift some key numbers because people won't be expecting it.  But again, very unlikely to occur.

One debate probably won't be decisive. Romney beat Obama pretty badly in the first debate. 

 

[timschochet]

Her popularity with Latinos is the key reason more Latino protesters show up at her rallies than supporters. 

Even I didn't think she could screw this up. Learned my lesson about underestimating Dear Hillary.

First off, I strongly doubt it. The protesters are more noticeable (by design.) And everything changes once the primaries are finally over. 

 

[Riversco]

The polls are unlikely to be static.  Odds are they will all move the same direction, one way or the other.  He has to have Florida, assuming he loses Virginia.  Basically the old Republican map only worked with all 3 of Virginia, Florida, and Ohio.  If you lose any, you have to replace it somewhere else.  Pennsylvania could offset Virginia but if you also lose Florida you'd need to add Michigan and Wisconsin.  Very difficult path, but again the polls likely all move in the same direction.  If it's accurate that states are that tight, it's almost a package deal, just as Obama pulled in Ohio, Florida, and Virginia.

Trump doesn't need Virginia nor Florida.  If we get the same map as 2012, but Trump flips, PA, OH, IA, MN, and CO, Trump reaches 269 and the House will make Trump president. 

 

[Riversco]

One debate probably won't be decisive. Romney beat Obama pretty badly in the first debate. 

Obama was a sitting president.  Much tougher opponent.

 

[dparker713]

One debate probably won't be decisive. Romney beat Obama pretty badly in the first debate. 

Those watching the debate said Romney won, but I just listened to it and at no point did I think Romney was winning.

 

[dparker713]

Trump doesn't need Virginia nor Florida.  If we get the same map as 2012, but Trump flips, PA, OH, IA, MN, and CO, Trump reaches 269 and the House will make Trump president. 

Minnesota, really?  You think there's a path to the White House for Trump by winning Minnesota?   

 

[Riversco]

Minnesota, really?  You think there's a path to the White House for Trump by winning Minnesota?   

Last poll had Clinton ahead of Trump by 5 in Minnesota.

 

[[scooter]]

Minnesota, really?  You think there's a path to the White House for Trump by winning Minnesota?   

Last poll had Clinton ahead of Trump by 5 in Minnesota.

Are you talking about the poll from 4 months ago? Because the poll from last week had Clinton in the lead by 13 points.

 

[cstu]

Those watching the debate said Romney won, but I just listened to it and at no point did I think Romney was winning.

I'm Obama's biggest cheerleader but he was off his game that night.

 

[SoBeDad]

I don't even bother with the Trump threads as so many of us tried to tell so many of you what was likely to happen and I haven't seen a one of you admit you were totally clueless and blindsided by Trump. 

I'm guessing from the tones in these posts that Tim has the audacity to post about Florida as if Clinton is going to take this state? You need a serious uptick in the meds if this is the case. Have you ever visited Florida or especially South Florida with WPB/Tump HQ, Ft Laud/Miami where Trump has building after building along the beach with his name attached or on the property. Trump has ALL the momentum in Florida right now. Trump stickers are everywhere, it is nothing you need to hide from in Florida. 

I was at the Hard Rock Live watching Bill Burr on Friday Night and he had to cut short his Trump rant as the crowd got very irate and an entire row of a section started fighting and had to be shown the door, I'm not kidding. Burr tweeted about it that night mentioning there were a few crazies...there were a lot more, it's Florida for goodness sake.

If any Leftists have hope of taking Florida away from Trump...this state leans right more than you can imagine. We elected Rick Scott for 2 terms and that guy is a 1st class butthole so please don't take away our claim on crazyville thinking Trump has no chance here. I think he's the favorite if the polls are showing him anything close to 50-50 here. Clinton has zero presence here right now. People see and have seen Trump on everything down here for many years. He beat Rubio so bad in his own state he quit the race, nuff said. 

MOP, it's likely to be close in Florida, as it has been in the last elections. Jew are about 4-5% of the electorate, and they'll vote about 75% for Hillary. Think of retirement places in Broward and elsewhere - no bumper stickers there. Blacks are about 15% of the eligible voting population (up from 14% in 2012), they'll vote 90%+ for Clinton. Hispanics are 20% (up from 17%) and they'll vote 75%+ for Hillary. The South Americans (Colombians, Peruvians, etc) and many Cubans in Miami think Trump is crazy and the fast growing Puerto Rican population in Orlando is over-overwhelmingly anti-Trump; Cubans are split. They've all seen the danger of egomaniac presidents first hand. Non-Hispanics married to Hispanics will also vote Clinton. North of I-4, it's mostly Republican territory, except for Tallahassee and Jacksonville.

Many Trump supporters are rowdy and out-spoken. One of my daughters is canvassing with a group to register new voters. Funding is by a group whose aim is to increase the voting and political power of marginalized constituencies (blacks, Haitians, immigrants).  They wear a shirt with either Stop Trump or Vote for a Living Wage, as part of marketing research. Well, Trump supporters have occasionally said nasty things and  one even said "If we weren't in a public place, I might shoot you."  These crazies are sparked by Trump's evil rhetoric. My daughter's group was planning to register 1,000 mainly democrats about every 2 months; they're on pace for 5,000. Trump is energizing both sides.

 

[cstu]

I don't even bother with the Trump threads as so many of us tried to tell so many of you what was likely to happen and I haven't seen a one of you admit you were totally clueless and blindsided by Trump. 

I'm guessing from the tones in these posts that Tim has the audacity to post about Florida as if Clinton is going to take this state? You need a serious uptick in the meds if this is the case. Have you ever visited Florida or especially South Florida with WPB/Tump HQ, Ft Laud/Miami where Trump has building after building along the beach with his name attached or on the property. Trump has ALL the momentum in Florida right now. Trump stickers are everywhere, it is nothing you need to hide from in Florida. 

I was at the Hard Rock Live watching Bill Burr on Friday Night and he had to cut short his Trump rant as the crowd got very irate and an entire row of a section started fighting and had to be shown the door, I'm not kidding. Burr tweeted about it that night mentioning there were a few crazies...there were a lot more, it's Florida for goodness sake.

If any Leftists have hope of taking Florida away from Trump...this state leans right more than you can imagine. We elected Rick Scott for 2 terms and that guy is a 1st class butthole so please don't take away our claim on crazyville thinking Trump has no chance here. I think he's the favorite if the polls are showing him anything close to 50-50 here. Clinton has zero presence here right now. People see and have seen Trump on everything down here for many years. He beat Rubio so bad in his own state he quit the race, nuff said. 

Florida is a very close - 3 of the last 4 elections have been within 3%.  Bush won in 2000 by just 537 votes.

More than anything it will come down to turnout - Florida demographics are changing in favor of Hillary but they to vote:

The electoral impacts of a changing electorate



In Florida, voters of color comprise a larger portion of the electorate each year

• The white electorate dropped from 81 percent of eligible voters in 1980 to 66.7 percent in 2012. It is projected to decrease further, to 64.5 percent by 2016.
  
• In 1980, 4 percent of eligible voters in the state were Latino; in 2012, 16.6 percent were. By 2016, the Florida electorate’s share of Latino eligible voters is expected to have increased by another 1.6 percentage points, to 18.2 percent.
  

If Democrats are able to hold onto 2012 levels of support from voters of color and turnout rates remain the same in 2016 (see Figure 1, 2016 Simulation 1), the Democratic margin of victory in Florida could yield a Democratic victory of 50.7 percent to Republicans’ 48.8 percent in the presidential election.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Hillary has led in every poll in Florida (though the latest ones are tight.) 

Not sure what you mean by my "audacity". I would never guarantee that Hillary will win Florida. As usual, it's the key (or at least one major key) to the entire election. But I think she'll win. The main reason is, when all has been said and done, Trump has so antagonized Latinos that he has no chance to win them back, and according to everything I read they're registering in huge numbers in your state. I believe that will be decisive. 

With all sincerity, you have no idea what you are posting about when it comes to Florida. We have a sitting 2 ##### GOP Gov that has been extra brutal on the poor and you still think Clinton is a slam dunk here? These are not SoCal Mexican Latinos and you need to start learning the difference between those folks and a Miami Cuban American because their mindsets are totally different and you lumping them all under the Latino umbrella as if that means they are locked and sealed for the DNC is not so smart on your part. You are trying to project Tim logic in a place where it won't work. 

Miami Native, lived here 80% of my life and while there are parts of Florida that are progressive, much of it feeds on the Trump rhetoric so maybe you and Hilary and some others should come down here and walk the streets of Miami/FtLaud/WPB as I doubt you would find a huge turnout vs what Trump will fill the Halls with here. Now maybe in other parts of the country like Wisconsin its the total opposite...but WI doesn't weigh quite the same in the winner's box as it does in say Florida. 

Populists who make it to the big dance tend to take states nobody thought they had a chance in so I wouldn't rule out places like New York and California...and IF that's the case or if Clinton has to burn resources the biggest of which will not be money but her precious time...if she has to try and retain states not just win new ones but retain DNC strongholds then she really is in for a tough battle in the traditional swing states like Florida. 

Donald operates out of Florida so he can almost camp out here especially right now waiting for the convention to start. He is doing the right thing and campaigning in the remaining states but meanwhile Hilary keeps taking losses even though she is the DNC nominee, Bernie keeps racking them up. Explain when Clinton is going to get some momentum and become a presence in Florida? Trump stuff everywhere, Clinton bumper stickers far and few between at the moment. 

Trump crushed the field here in Florida, beats Rubio in his home state by 20+, 30+ points??? If he barely beat the 2nd guy here in Florida but it was one of his biggest wins. Florida has a lot of former NY'ers and they seem to be talking up Trump a lot down here 

But it's not a genuine shrug because you and I both know what's about to happen. Have fun trying to convince the FFA and anyone who will listen that Clinton is the front runner in Florida. 

 

[Ministry of Pain]

One debate probably won't be decisive. Romney beat Obama pretty badly in the first debate. 

Is the fact or likelihood the ratings for this election will be higher than any we have seen in our lifetime a credit to Hilary Clinton or Donald Trump? It's not because America is Patriotic, see Bush vs Dukakis, Clinton vs Mondale, Bush vs Kerry...many elections people tune the eff out and suddenly this cycle everyone seems interested. You really think all those suddenly interested folks are moving towards Hilary and finding themselves wanting to run out of their houses and go vote? 

Where is the logic in the thinking? 

 

[Ministry of Pain]

MOP, it's likely to be close in Florida, as it has been in the last elections. Jew are about 4-5% of the electorate, and they'll vote about 75% for Hillary. Think of retirement places in Broward and elsewhere - no bumper stickers there. Blacks are about 15% of the eligible voting population (up from 14% in 2012), they'll vote 90%+ for Clinton. Hispanics are 20% (up from 17%) and they'll vote 75%+ for Hillary. The South Americans (Colombians, Peruvians, etc) and many Cubans in Miami think Trump is crazy and the fast growing Puerto Rican population in Orlando is over-overwhelmingly anti-Trump; Cubans are split. They've all seen the danger of egomaniac presidents first hand. Non-Hispanics married to Hispanics will also vote Clinton. North of I-4, it's mostly Republican territory, except for Tallahassee and Jacksonville.

Many Trump supporters are rowdy and out-spoken. One of my daughters is canvassing with a group to register new voters. Funding is by a group whose aim is to increase the voting and political power of marginalized constituencies (blacks, Haitians, immigrants).  They wear a shirt with either Stop Trump or Vote for a Living Wage, as part of marketing research. Well, Trump supporters have occasionally said nasty things and  one even said "If we weren't in a public place, I might shoot you."  These crazies are sparked by Trump's evil rhetoric. My daughter's group was planning to register 1,000 mainly democrats about every 2 months; they're on pace for 5,000. Trump is energizing both sides.

I live on the Bluffs at Jupiter, 98% of my condo assoc is 55+, many 75+, wife and I are the 2 kids in this place. They rib us at the potluck when we say we have to get up and go to work the next day. Trump stickers, I can send you photos. I hear what you're saying but Trump's name is on many of the condos Jews live in on the beach.  

Let's focus on Cubans...99.99% of them are Cath-O-Lick! There ain't a one of them that believes in birth control or abortion, that's usually a win for the GOP. Most of the Cuban population by and large frowns upon government handouts and people who take them hence why they don't all get along with everyone from South America. Most Cuban parents of students I teach are quite conservative. I had 48 of them Day One in Miami btw...Most of them(parents) want me to spank their kid if they get out of line or hit them upside the head with the Bible and I say we don't do that here but I'll remind little Ernesto that you consider all those options on the table when he takes his report card home to you. 

Let's just say I always had the backing of a Cuban parent, they emphasize learning with their children and I would say a strong moral upbringing. I can't say that about everyone but the norm in the Cubans I taught was education, religion, discipline, sometimes not in that order. Meanwhile in Los Angeles we can't get folks to clean up after themselves with corn cobs strewn about on the street. Government hand outs? Gimme some more! Government Freebies? Gimme some more!

Cubans have a lot of pride. I've always respected that. 

 

[timschochet]

With all sincerity, you have no idea what you are posting about when it comes to Florida. We have a sitting 2 ##### GOP Gov that has been extra brutal on the poor and you still think Clinton is a slam dunk here? These are not SoCal Mexican Latinos and you need to start learning the difference between those folks and a Miami Cuban American because their mindsets are totally different and you lumping them all under the Latino umbrella as if that means they are locked and sealed for the DNC is not so smart on your part. You are trying to project Tim logic in a place where it won't work. 

Miami Native, lived here 80% of my life and while there are parts of Florida that are progressive, much of it feeds on the Trump rhetoric so maybe you and Hilary and some others should come down here and walk the streets of Miami/FtLaud/WPB as I doubt you would find a huge turnout vs what Trump will fill the Halls with here. Now maybe in other parts of the country like Wisconsin its the total opposite...but WI doesn't weigh quite the same in the winner's box as it does in say Florida. 

Populists who make it to the big dance tend to take states nobody thought they had a chance in so I wouldn't rule out places like New York and California...and IF that's the case or if Clinton has to burn resources the biggest of which will not be money but her precious time...if she has to try and retain states not just win new ones but retain DNC strongholds then she really is in for a tough battle in the traditional swing states like Florida. 

Donald operates out of Florida so he can almost camp out here especially right now waiting for the convention to start. He is doing the right thing and campaigning in the remaining states but meanwhile Hilary keeps taking losses even though she is the DNC nominee, Bernie keeps racking them up. Explain when Clinton is going to get some momentum and become a presence in Florida? Trump stuff everywhere, Clinton bumper stickers far and few between at the moment. 

Trump crushed the field here in Florida, beats Rubio in his home state by 20+, 30+ points??? If he barely beat the 2nd guy here in Florida but it was one of his biggest wins. Florida has a lot of former NY'ers and they seem to be talking up Trump a lot down here 

But it's not a genuine shrug because you and I both know what's about to happen. Have fun trying to convince the FFA and anyone who will listen that Clinton is the front runner in Florida. 

This is a pretty patronizing post. This is twice now that you've misquoted me. I never guaranteed she will win Florida and I never wrote that it was a slam dunk. I think she'll win, but I'm not sure. Please stop putting words in my mouth. 

I don't need to convince anyone that Hillary is the frontrunner in Florida. There have been dozens of polls run for that state and she has never been behind Trump in a single one to the best of my knowledge. So of course she is the frontrunner. That doesn't mean she'll win.

But your assertion that she will lose based on your personal knowledge of the state strikes me as absurd. 

 

[timschochet]

I live on the Bluffs at Jupiter, 98% of my condo assoc is 55+, many 75+, wife and I are the 2 kids in this place. They rib us at the potluck when we say we have to get up and go to work the next day. Trump stickers, I can send you photos. I hear what you're saying but Trump's name is on many of the condos Jews live in on the beach.  

Let's focus on Cubans...99.99% of them are Cath-O-Lick! There ain't a one of them that believes in birth control or abortion, that's usually a win for the GOP. Most of the Cuban population by and large frowns upon government handouts and people who take them hence why they don't all get along with everyone from South America. Most Cuban parents of students I teach are quite conservative. I had 48 of them Day One in Miami btw...Most of them(parents) want me to spank their kid if they get out of line or hit them upside the head with the Bible and I say we don't do that here but I'll remind little Ernesto that you consider all those options on the table when he takes his report card home to you. 

Let's just say I always had the backing of a Cuban parent, they emphasize learning with their children and I would say a strong moral upbringing. I can't say that about everyone but the norm in the Cubans I taught was education, religion, discipline, sometimes not in that order. Meanwhile in Los Angeles we can't get folks to clean up after themselves with corn cobs strewn about on the street. Government hand outs? Gimme some more! Government Freebies? Gimme some more!

Cubans have a lot of pride. I've always respected that. 

Once again your personal knowledge of Cuban Anericans is not a good substitute for polling: 

http://www.redstate.com/jaycaruso/2016/05/02/toxic-trump-poll-says-bye-bye-cuban-vote-in-florida-if-hes-the-nominee/

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Florida is a very close - 3 of the last 4 elections have been within 3%.  Bush won in 2000 by just 537 votes.

More than anything it will come down to turnout - Florida demographics are changing in favor of Hillary but they to vote:

And yet...can't seem to get the biggest dbag out as Gov of Florida...in fact he is going to be on the short list of nominees for VP, if it were sure he would tip the scale heavy for Trump here, might actually get him a VP nod. I hope to God he doesn't because a Rick Scott VP might just be enough to make me go...vote...for...NO I can't do it, I'm not ready for that yet. Trump has to know Scott is not popular, I doubt he needs a Florida VP to help him win this state. 

The Trump presence here is large, what else can I tell you? This board is 70% DNC, maybe higher so it doesn't matter, you all believe whatever gets pumped out of the Left Media which is everything minus Fox so I don't believe you all understand the way the winds are blowing and heavily I might add in favor of Trump.

If it were Clinton everyone was talking about down here or if there was a massive stop Trump movement I would be the first to post but I am not seeing much if any of that right now. 

I think a lot of the voting blocks that have been highlighted with 90% of these people vote such n such...OK, fine. Doesn't that stat show who the real racists are? The more we learn about these DNC voting blocks the more I see a hostile group of folks that doesn't seem to be very open minded. If 90% are already going to vote for one party, why even have these debates? 

 

[timschochet]

You think this board is 70% liberal??

 

[cstu]

I think a lot of the voting blocks that have been highlighted with 90% of these people vote such n such...OK, fine. Doesn't that stat show who the real racists are? The more we learn about these DNC voting blocks the more I see a hostile group of folks that doesn't seem to be very open minded. If 90% are already going to vote for one party, why even have these debates? 

There's a reason why 90% of them vote for one party - the other party did everything it could to prevent them from voting.

 

[dparker713]

I'm Obama's biggest cheerleader but he was off his game that night.

When the other guy's message is trickle down economics, you don't need to be on your game to be scoring points.

 

[dparker713]

Today I wouldn't put California out of Trump's reach 

Today I wouldn't put Texas out of Hilary's reach.

 

[dparker713]

You think this board is 70% liberal??

Well, he is probably clinically insane.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Once again your personal knowledge of Cuban Anericans is not a good substitute for polling: 

http://www.redstate.com/jaycaruso/2016/05/02/toxic-trump-poll-says-bye-bye-cuban-vote-in-florida-if-hes-the-nominee/

Do you know the number of ridiculous internet sites and stories and polls and figures that are out there to confuse your head? (A lot) The Huffington Post runs a story telling everyone not to panic that Trump is leading in Florida...this is the same type of rhetoric that got him elected to the GOP in the first place. By all means YOU SHOULD BE IN A PANIC if you are opposed to Trump, he has all the momentum right now and it hasn't stopped nor has 10,000+ people showing up at all his events. Bernie packs 'em out, Hilary? Not so much... 

You believe what you want, I was sitting in Marlins Park last night talking to a couple from the Netherlands on their honeymoon in front of us(2 rows off 1st bag, amazing seats), Cubans to my right and behind me, all of them were very interested in Trump. I said so you don't like Trump and you want to vote for Clinton? I was surprised but all of them said they would vote for Trump. I asked why, they simply said he's different. 

Find a poll with some real info and don't put much stock in telemarketer phone calls...

Oh and I have lived in your neck of the woods also, night and day the political atmosphere in the two places. I never felt like I was in a room of conservatives ever in Southern California except when my wife worked at Pepperdine and she didn't stay there long(they opened and closed the meetings with prayers).

Where as here in Florida it is a much more diverse group of folks when it comes to voting. Conservative/Progressive, it's a fine line here and people cross that line based on the wind direction all the time. 

SoBeDad's daughter is going door to door and Trump folks are speaking out...labeled as loud mouthed but that is part of the entire movement and what drives it...told to shut up and move along, don't ask questions, just open your wallets and paychecks and just give the money to us and be thankful you even have a job...not the America many of us were told about. That's what Trump has tapped into, a lot of people who were promised how great America is and would be. The Oversight of Millions of Americans who are not counted as unemployed once their benefits run out is absurd. You add in underemployed or those working 20 hours a week that would rather be working 40 and the true number of folks hurting in this country gets more real. 

I mean this with all due respect and I'm sure many of you have similar situations but despite a comfy lifestyle I see a daily dose of nasty first hand. These kids I teach do not get to go home at night and take a stroll along the beach to forget their problems, in fact most teachers in general don't get that so I'm blessed but I see a daily reminder and meet a lot of struggling parents, a picture much different than the one talking heads making hundred of thousands if not millions on news outlets around the globe spew out as rhetoric and have no idea what is really happening down on the ground sort of speak. 

Very long but I find your post offensive and a cop out for real conversation. I'm sure you can find some real news sources with folks who work down here like say the Miami Herald? I'm sure they must be printing stories daily like the one you have there since they are the Cuban Authority, yes/no? 

Maybe one day I can find a video camera and go down into one of the prime areas like Calle Ocho and Domino Park, light up a stick hand rolled from the store around the corner and ask these nice folks who they are voting for? Would you like that or would MOP's first hand knowledge of people actually living there and voting be too much for you to handle?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

You think this board is 70% liberal??

I don't think it Tim, I know it.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

There's a reason why 90% of them vote for one party - the other party did everything it could to prevent them from voting.

That's simply not true. In fact a long time ago blacks were a major part of the GOP...Lincoln was a Republican. Blacks fled the GOP in the early 60s, much of it fueled by media for obvious reasons. You really want to act like the GOP were the 10-20 guys running around with hoods in Mississippi Burning? Was Newt's grandfather a KKK member? How are the GOP preventing them from voting? 

Better question, how did Hope and Change work out for the bast majority of them? Did they get to stop paying on their mortgage and keep their house because the big bad GOP did naughty things...oh no actually that was DNC-Frank legislation that kind of spearheaded that even illegal immigrants who worked as lawn care experts should be able to get keys to a house. But the avg poor person or even the poor person that lost their house doesn't see it that way. It's the evil bad money men and they all take up shop over at the GOP

-It's rich and it's good

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I don't even bother with the Trump threads as so many of us tried to tell so many of you what was likely to happen and I haven't seen a one of you admit you were totally clueless and blindsided by Trump. 

I'm guessing from the tones in these posts that Tim has the audacity to post about Florida as if Clinton is going to take this state? You need a serious uptick in the meds if this is the case. Have you ever visited Florida or especially South Florida with WPB/Tump HQ, Ft Laud/Miami where Trump has building after building along the beach with his name attached or on the property. Trump has ALL the momentum in Florida right now. Trump stickers are everywhere, it is nothing you need to hide from in Florida. 

I was at the Hard Rock Live watching Bill Burr on Friday Night and he had to cut short his Trump rant as the crowd got very irate and an entire row of a section started fighting and had to be shown the door, I'm not kidding. Burr tweeted about it that night mentioning there were a few crazies...there were a lot more, it's Florida for goodness sake.

If any Leftists have hope of taking Florida away from Trump...this state leans right more than you can imagine. We elected Rick Scott for 2 terms and that guy is a 1st class butthole so please don't take away our claim on crazyville thinking Trump has no chance here. I think he's the favorite if the polls are showing him anything close to 50-50 here. Clinton has zero presence here right now. People see and have seen Trump on everything down here for many years. He beat Rubio so bad in his own state he quit the race, nuff said. 

Obama won 60 of the overall Hispanic vote in Florida, including 48% of the Cuban vote in 2012. The non-Cuban Hispanic vote went heavily for Obama, as did the black vote. Trump's bigoted comments (even if not directed specifically towards Cubans) aren't going to help him take any of the Hispanic vote, whether Cuban or non-Cuban. In addition, the Cuban vote has been shifting more towards Democrats in recent years. 

Democrats have dominated South Florida in Presidential elections. I know you live there but (with all due respect), you have to show a lot more evidence to convince me that Trump can make any serious inroads down there. Demographics and the recent past say otherwise. The Hispanic population is growing fast in Florida and it's not just Cubans. As flawed as Hillary is, Trump's insanely high unfavorables among minorities and women have left him with an incredibly tough mountain to climb. It is difficult to get back votes of large demographic groups when they were lost by insults and bigoted comments. It's hard to undo that. 

It was stated many times after 2012 that Republicans had to find a way to get more of the Hispanic vote to win. Florida will probably be closer than most swing states but Trump will not win there or anywhere else without doing better among Hispanics. That doesn't even factor in his high unfavorables among women. 

ETA to clarify that the percentages in the first paragtaph are for Florida. Thanks for those that pointed it out.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Do you know the number of ridiculous internet sites and stories and polls and figures that are out there to confuse your head? (A lot) The Huffington Post runs a story telling everyone not to panic that Trump is leading in Florida...this is the same type of rhetoric that got him elected to the GOP in the first place. By all means YOU SHOULD BE IN A PANIC if you are opposed to Trump, he has all the momentum right now and it hasn't stopped nor has 10,000+ people showing up at all his events. Bernie packs 'em out, Hilary? Not so much... 

You believe what you want, I was sitting in Marlins Park last night talking to a couple from the Netherlands on their honeymoon in front of us(2 rows off 1st bag, amazing seats), Cubans to my right and behind me, all of them were very interested in Trump. I said so you don't like Trump and you want to vote for Clinton? I was surprised but all of them said they would vote for Trump. I asked why, they simply said he's different. 

Find a poll with some real info and don't put much stock in telemarketer phone calls...

Oh and I have lived in your neck of the woods also, night and day the political atmosphere in the two places. I never felt like I was in a room of conservatives ever in Southern California except when my wife worked at Pepperdine and she didn't stay there long(they opened and closed the meetings with prayers).

Where as here in Florida it is a much more diverse group of folks when it comes to voting. Conservative/Progressive, it's a fine line here and people cross that line based on the wind direction all the time. 

SoBeDad's daughter is going door to door and Trump folks are speaking out...labeled as loud mouthed but that is part of the entire movement and what drives it...told to shut up and move along, don't ask questions, just open your wallets and paychecks and just give the money to us and be thankful you even have a job...not the America many of us were told about. That's what Trump has tapped into, a lot of people who were promised how great America is and would be. The Oversight of Millions of Americans who are not counted as unemployed once their benefits run out is absurd. You add in underemployed or those working 20 hours a week that would rather be working 40 and the true number of folks hurting in this country gets more real. 

I mean this with all due respect and I'm sure many of you have similar situations but despite a comfy lifestyle I see a daily dose of nasty first hand. These kids I teach do not get to go home at night and take a stroll along the beach to forget their problems, in fact most teachers in general don't get that so I'm blessed but I see a daily reminder and meet a lot of struggling parents, a picture much different than the one talking heads making hundred of thousands if not millions on news outlets around the globe spew out as rhetoric and have no idea what is really happening down on the ground sort of speak. 

Very long but I find your post offensive and a cop out for real conversation. I'm sure you can find some real news sources with folks who work down here like say the Miami Herald? I'm sure they must be printing stories daily like the one you have there since they are the Cuban Authority, yes/no? 

Maybe one day I can find a video camera and go down into one of the prime areas like Calle Ocho and Domino Park, light up a stick hand rolled from the store around the corner and ask these nice folks who they are voting for? Would you like that or would MOP's first hand knowledge of people actually living there and voting be too much for you to handle?

I would like that. And please include more of the bolded - great shtick.

 

[3C's]

When people have a higher opinion of Nickelback than yourself, you really suck. https://scontent.forf1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13164325_10207833164444870_6211614140825397370_n.jpg?oh=693cb3254f87bcee621942a64d5194ce&oe=57A78FD4

 

[Capella]

Today I wouldn't put California out of Trump's reach 

 

[3C's]

Obama won 60 of the overall Hispanic vote, including 48% of the Cuban vote in 2012. The non-Cuban Hispanic vote went heavily for Obama, as did the black vote. Trump's bigoted comments (even if not directed specifically towards Cubans) aren't going to help him take any of the Hispanic vote, whether Cuban or non-Cuban. In addition, the Cuban vote has been shifting more towards Democrats in recent years. 

Democrats have dominated South Florida in Presidential elections. I know you live there but (with all due respect), you have to show a lot more evidence to convince me that Trump can make any serious inroads down there. Demographics and the recent past say otherwise. The Hispanic population is growing fast in Florida and it's not just Cubans. As flawed as Hillary is, Trump's insanely high unfavorables among minorities and women have left him with an incredibly tough mountain to climb. It is difficult to get back votes of large demographic groups when they were lost by insults and bigoted comments. It's hard to undo that. 

It was stated many times after 2012 that Republicans had to find a way to get more of the Hispanic vote to win. Florida will probably be closer than most swing states but Trump will not win there or anywhere else without doing better among Hispanics. That doesn't even factor in his high unfavorables among women. 

But Trump loves Hispanics! He proved it by eating a taco bowl on May 5!!

Also: https://scontent.forf1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13178960_10207827378620228_7381985473241659264_n.jpg?oh=dc8e6aadeccc116b4ba8bb594a55877d&oe=57A75030

 

[joffer]

MOP, your glue is melting

 

[Riversco]

Hey Ministry, Trump is trying to turn the midwest red, not Florida.

 

[shadrap]

I live on the Bluffs at Jupiter, 98% of my condo assoc is 55+, many 75+, wife and I are the 2 kids in this place. They rib us at the potluck when we say we have to get up and go to work the next day. Trump stickers, I can send you photos. I hear what you're saying but Trump's name is on many of the condos Jews live in on the beach.  

Let's focus on Cubans...99.99% of them are Cath-O-Lick! There ain't a one of them that believes in birth control or abortion, that's usually a win for the GOP. Most of the Cuban population by and large frowns upon government handouts and people who take them hence why they don't all get along with everyone from South America. Most Cuban parents of students I teach are quite conservative. I had 48 of them Day One in Miami btw...Most of them(parents) want me to spank their kid if they get out of line or hit them upside the head with the Bible and I say we don't do that here but I'll remind little Ernesto that you consider all those options on the table when he takes his report card home to you. 

Let's just say I always had the backing of a Cuban parent, they emphasize learning with their children and I would say a strong moral upbringing. I can't say that about everyone but the norm in the Cubans I taught was education, religion, discipline, sometimes not in that order. Meanwhile in Los Angeles we can't get folks to clean up after themselves with corn cobs strewn about on the street. Government hand outs? Gimme some more! Government Freebies? Gimme some more!

Cubans have a lot of pride. I've always respected that. 

Not sure why but "little Ernesto" got me laughing.  Thanks, I needed that.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Good news for the GOP; there is an alternative to Trump.  His name?  The Nominee
 

Donald Trump is a problem.

He has a 65 percent unfavorable rating. He is prone to firing off unexpectedly at the mouth. He either doesn’t understand or actively wants to destroy the credit of the United States. If you’re a senator running for reelection and his name shows up at the top of the ticket, you might as well tie an albatross around your neck and head out to sea.

So what to do? Speaking Trump’s name gives him power. He is like Voldemort in that regard. (Also, he is immortal and cannot die as long as his Towers survive. His buildings are his horcruxes and contain fragments of his soul.)

The trick is not to speak his name.

But fortunately for senators in tough, competitive seats, there is another option. You don’t have to endorse Trump. You can just support the Nominee of the Party.

These are not the same thing at all! They are quite different. The Nominee is everything Trump isn’t.

Here’s Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) talking about Trump: “I have strong disagreements with Mr. Trump.”

Here’s McCain talking about the Nominee: “The nominee of the party, the party of Ronald Reagan and Teddy Roosevelt, has my support.”

Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) won’t endorse Trump. In February, she said, “There’s no place in our society for racism and bigotry, and I found Mr. Trump’s response to David Duke and the KKK disgusting and offensive.” But she will support the nominee. Her communications director, Liz Johnson, confirmed as much to the New Hampshire Union Leader. “As she’s said from the beginning, Kelly plans to support the nominee.”

It is good that there is this third option. The Nominee sounds wonderful.

He seems to have a strong base of support. Senators who have nothing positive to say about Trump at all speak glowingly of the mysterious Nominee.

Very little is known about him, apart from the fact that he is probably statesmanlike and definitely not embarrassing to have at the top of the ticket, and probably Reagan would have liked to have a beer with him, or something, but what more do you need to know?

Andrew Kaczynski at BuzzFeed first noted the groundswell of support for this Nominee guy among high-ranking senators during a KTAR Arizona radio interview with McCain, Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska). The Nominee, McCain confirmed, has his support. Trump, not so much. “I’m not comfortable with a lot of the things that he has done,” McCain noted.

Sullivan concurred. “There’s a number of things I don’t agree with in terms of what Donald Trump has said on the campaign trail,” he said on the same show. “Some of his rhetoric, some of his policy, certainly some of his instincts on national security and foreign policy.”

But fortunately, Sullivan has another choice. “I plan on supporting the Republican nominee. At this time.”

Cotton concurred. “I’ve long said that I will support the Republican nominee because we can’t afford a third Obama-Clinton term.”

The Nominee of the Party sounds like a rational guy. Even House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) — who is “not ready” to support Trump — had compliments for the Nominee. “We hope that our nominee aspires to be Lincoln or Reagan-esque,” Ryan observed.

Lincoln or Reagan-esque? Wow! What a high bar.

This “nominee” character sounds almost as good as that Never Trump fellow. (Whatever happened to him, by the way?)

“Senator McCain, we already know that you’re supporting Trump, but are you endorsing Trump?” the KTAR hosts asked.

“I’m supporting the nominee of the party,” McCain responded. “I’m telling you the answer and that is, I’m supporting our nominee.”

Given the choice of Donald Trump and the Nominee of the Republican Party, these senators would support the Nominee of the Party, hands down.

If they turn out to be the same person, this is going to be very uncomfortable.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Obama won 60 of the overall Hispanic vote, including 48% of the Cuban vote in 2012. The non-Cuban Hispanic vote went heavily for Obama, as did the black vote. Trump's bigoted comments (even if not directed specifically towards Cubans) aren't going to help him take any of the Hispanic vote, whether Cuban or non-Cuban. In addition, the Cuban vote has been shifting more towards Democrats in recent years. 

Democrats have dominated South Florida in Presidential elections. I know you live there but (with all due respect), you have to show a lot more evidence to convince me that Trump can make any serious inroads down there. Demographics and the recent past say otherwise. The Hispanic population is growing fast in Florida and it's not just Cubans. As flawed as Hillary is, Trump's insanely high unfavorables among minorities and women have left him with an incredibly tough mountain to climb. It is difficult to get back votes of large demographic groups when they were lost by insults and bigoted comments. It's hard to undo that. 

It was stated many times after 2012 that Republicans had to find a way to get more of the Hispanic vote to win. Florida will probably be closer than most swing states but Trump will not win there or anywhere else without doing better among Hispanics. That doesn't even factor in his high unfavorables among women. 

They're still waiving the rebel flag in Davie, Weston, Coral Springs, Sunrise, Miramar, Pembroke Pines, these are big pockets in the west county sections of Broward. The beach areas in Broward and Palm Beach belong to Trump, Debbie Wasserman is really hated down here and she energizes the Trump base big time. I'll concede large pockets of Dade County but you go up around Tampa and the West Coast of FL with Naples, Ft Myers, go up to Sarasota and then all the way up and around the panhandle...those areas are not so slanted Latino. 

You DNC'ites keep believing what you want. I don't think many who live here right now feel much Clinton presence. Where you guys go off the road is in your quest to want to be right and support a winner. I posted all of last year that I thought Clinton would win in a landslide back in 2014 and 1st half of 2015 but then things changed and she lost a lot of momentum with the email scandal and it is still crippling her ability to widen her appeal. I do not hear people say anything with passion or conviction when speaking of Clinton. Many women DO NOT respect her, my wife is a Lib or has been for as long as I've known her and she isn't talking up Clinton at all. I never heard the end of Obama but Hilary, mums the word. 

You guys slip into your DNC cheerleader outfits, that's fine. It's not a quest to be right about Trump. It's about telling you if you really don't want him to be President you all might want to pick a new strategy because whatever the Clinton plan is...NOT working. And she continues to get beaten at the polls, it's obvious folks do not like her. And in all seriousness if Bernie is taken as VP, his campaign and all the people he reached will be for not IMO...I don't believe Sanders/Clinton like each other much but I can see her getting desperate and if for some weird reason the email accusations actually come to light, Sanders could easily take the baton and get the convention vote and pick his own VP. 

I feel like Clinton is damaged goods at this point. I don't like her chances vs Trump at all. I could see Sanders winning and connecting and energizing a lot of people both for good and bad reasons but he has a lot of momentum and grass roots and people waiting int he wings if he were to actually look the front runner suddenly. 

These are crazy times. We have become a culture of reality TV. We now have an entire generation raised with reality TV and internet made up celebrities like the Kardashians for lack of a better example. And people feel like they know Trump for better or worse, Clinton looks like a figurehead in a far off land at times. Have at it, what does a beach bum like me know anyways? 

 

[culdeus]

Yeah, I'm thinking Trump sweeps all 50 states.  I mean he has the momentum, will trash Hillary in the debates, and Hillary will be led out in handcuffs from her hotel suite at least once on the campaign trail.