Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
:excellent posting:
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*****Official 2016 Kentucky Derby Thread***** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter chet
- Start date
Mile High
Footballguy
I bet lots of people quit caring about the Belmont if there is no chance of a triple crown. Spread the races out more then if running every 2 weeks for everyone is to hard.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Pat Forde @YahooForde · 6m6 minutes ago
American Pharoah and stablemate Dortmund will be next to each other on inside, 1-2 posts. Firing Line on far outside in 8. In between:filler
American Pharoah and stablemate Dortmund will be next to each other on inside, 1-2 posts. Firing Line on far outside in 8. In between:filler
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Good posting. If someone is ever going to F with a horse, the rail is as easy a target as any. Baffert obviously won't, but who knows about the rest.
Post time: 6:18 p.m. Saturday at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. Purse: $1.5 million. Distance: 1 3/16 miles. TV: NBC.
PP horse (weight) jockey/trainer odds
1. American Pharoah (126) Espinoza/Baffert 4-5
2. Dortmund (126) Garcia/Baffert 7-2
3. Mr. Z (126) Nakatani/Lukas 20-1
4. Danzig Moon (126) Leparoux/Casse 15-1
5. Tale of Verve (126) Rosario/Stewart 30-1
6. Bodhisattva (126) McCarthy/Corrales 20-1
7. Divining Rod (126) Castellano/Delcaour 12-1
8. Firing Line (126) Stevens/Callaghan 4-1
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Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Didn't realize Mr. Z had entered the race. Maybe he'll draw a FEW bucks at least.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
He's a D Wayne Lukas horse...of course he entered a Triple Crown race
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
$50 exacta...1 over 2,8 would be what you'd be calling out there for $100
Tri would be 1 with 2,8 with 2,8
Tri would be 1 with 2,8 with 2,8
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
You guys think the payout will be better tri boxing the top 3 for $20 or playing a superfecta 1,2,8 with 1,2,8 with 1,2,8 with 3,4,5,6,7 for $4?
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JShare87
Footballguy
I'm not sure if you're trying to say you only want to spend 20.00 total on the trifecta bet. A one dollar tri box you are suggesting would cost 6 dollars so a 20.00 box would cost you 120.00. Also the Superfecta you are suggesting wouldn't cost 4.00, it would cost 30.00 for the one dollar Superfecta.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
The total layout is $120 in either case. Also, both wagers only require 1,2,8 to finish top 3 to cash. Only question is whether or not the $1 super will pay more or less than 5 times the $1 trifecta payout.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
$20 tri box = $20 x 6 bets = $120
Super = 3 x 2 x 1 x 5 = 30 bets x $4 = $120
Sorry if I wasn't clear in my last post.
JShare87
Footballguy
My fault. I just didn't really understand. I think it depends on which horse finishes on top. If it's AP I think the dollar tri would be somewhere around 20.00. It will be a tough decision, I'd go with the trifecta bet.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I probably will. I just went back and looked at last year's payouts figuring that would be a decent comparison with California Chrome winning and no longshots on the board. $1 trifecta was $38 and super was $173 - less than 5x the payout.
JShare87
Footballguy
Great idea. I play the dogs mostly, so an 8 horse field is a typical field for dogs. I've hit plenty of 15-20 dollar trifectas in dog races with similar odds to the top 3 in the Preakness.
Prince Myshkin
Footballguy
the 2 and 8 aren't going to be anywhere near the 10-1 odds for the place horse last year. If it comes in 1-2-8, I'm thinking the tri is lucky to pay in the $12-15 range.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Agreed. Just trying to figure out if the superfecta payout will be <> 5x the trifecta.
deacon14
Footballguy
Your question is really tough. Can't you do a blend of the 2 at lesser amounts? The small field of 8 makes it tough. I do think a tri-box of the top 3 will pay awful, no matter who wins. Supers; however, they can change drastically. If the 5 or 6 makes it into the winning superfecta over say 4 or 7 (or even the 3) things can change fairly significantly.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Horse racing is steeped in tradition. It isn't changing because some of us are so hell bent on seeing a triple crown winner. There's a reason why being a triple crown winner is so special. Cheapening the high cost and achievement to become one isn't what horse racing needs nor wants. I'll watch the Belmont regardless of whether or not we might see a TC winner, but I'm a horse racing fan. I'd be furious if changes were forced upon this sport to appeal to the casual fan.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Short of one of them falling the @#$k over, I can't see anyone but Divining Rod even having a chance of hitting the board. There's no Oxbow here that's going to explode into his best effort. I thought there was a chance Materiality could be that horse, but Pletcher sent him to NY.
Mr. Z, Bodhisattva, and Tale of Verve have no business being here. Tale of Verve should be 99-1. The other two have been in races against this class and were found severely wanting. I can't fathom any of them eating up the big 3 down the stretch at a mile 3/16. Danzig Moon is a nice horse, but nothing more. He took to the track like flies to crap in Kentucky and still couldn't muster better than 5th. A nice effort to be sure, but he made up no ground in the stretch. Unless he improves dramatically or some ill fate befalls one of the top contenders, I can't see him finishing better than 4th.
Divining Rod is the only horse other than Danzig Moon that even has a prayer of cashing. With that said, I still think he's outclassed here and would need a quantum leap forward along with one of the favorites simply not firing to get into the mix.
No money to be made on this race, IMO. I opened an account online for the Derby and got a $125 bonus in non-refundable wagering credits that I have to play Saturday or I lose them. I would play some undercard races but don't know if I'll be home, so I may have to spread $125 on this race. Probably will just try to about break even so I can turn the credits into real money and just cash it out.
Mr. Z, Bodhisattva, and Tale of Verve have no business being here. Tale of Verve should be 99-1. The other two have been in races against this class and were found severely wanting. I can't fathom any of them eating up the big 3 down the stretch at a mile 3/16. Danzig Moon is a nice horse, but nothing more. He took to the track like flies to crap in Kentucky and still couldn't muster better than 5th. A nice effort to be sure, but he made up no ground in the stretch. Unless he improves dramatically or some ill fate befalls one of the top contenders, I can't see him finishing better than 4th.
Divining Rod is the only horse other than Danzig Moon that even has a prayer of cashing. With that said, I still think he's outclassed here and would need a quantum leap forward along with one of the favorites simply not firing to get into the mix.
No money to be made on this race, IMO. I opened an account online for the Derby and got a $125 bonus in non-refundable wagering credits that I have to play Saturday or I lose them. I would play some undercard races but don't know if I'll be home, so I may have to spread $125 on this race. Probably will just try to about break even so I can turn the credits into real money and just cash it out.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Sounds like a wimp move but just throw the 125 on your best bet to show, if it really is an all chalk race you should cash out easy.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
If i was to do this, I'd probably be better off playing the top 3 horses to show at $40 each. That way I'm covered in the event that something goes seriously awry with Pharoah. Throw the extra $5 on a longshot.Sounds like a wimp move but just throw the 125 on your best bet to show, if it really is an all chalk race you should cash out easy.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Or to place, I guess.
General Malaise
Footballguy
That's why I'm taking a shot on Dortmund again. Loved him so hard two weeks ago and think he's still capable of being the best 3YO horse. I locked in at 5-1 offshore and hope to get something like that tomorrow at the OTB. 4-1 fine too. Will wheel him with the field for kicks. Won't spend a ton of dough on this one. Just enough to keep me interested.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Is the Susan still a thing?
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Yes it's over though...some longshot won. Apparently it goes off around 5:00 EST
likely going to invest in the Pick 5 tomorrow and single on AP..maybe small backup to FL and Dortmund
Also Twin Spires offered a money back guarantee on your win bet if your horse runs 2nd* so I put $25 on Firing Line
*$50 max and only for first $10K Wagered
Certainly possible he runs 3rd or worst but I figure it's worth the shot
Not sure Dortmund wants to go classic distances...hard to say for sure from 1 race but he was never really blowing anyone out before
Limp Dogg Bizkits
Footballguy
Heading to Santa Anita tomorrow for the 1st time. Will be betting on the Preakness for the fun of it. Thinking about putting $50 on Dortmund to win.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
I'm heading to a blues festival tomorrow morning so played a little bit this afternoon and cashed, basically enough to cover all of my Preakness bets in advance wagering. So I got that going for me - which is nice.
I don't really have any new insight. If it was a monsoon I would move American Pharoah and Danzig way up and play a 1 way exacta with those 2.
But it looks like a warm day with scattered thunderstorms that only jump from 10% to 40% chance at about 3pm. So the track will be sealed and it may not rain at all before the race. In any case, I had to bet in advance and can't change my tickets anyway. If anything, I may add the above exacta in online wagering at the 11th hour.
The only stand I'm making is that Firing Line will be 1st or 2nd. I think he gets the perfect, comfortable trip, can make his move whenever he wants, and then it will just be if he's good enough to win. If he bounces (some say he's better with a lot of time off between races) then I'm not cashing. I don't have AP/Dortmund exacta boxes.
My plays:
$100 exacta American Pharoah-Firing Line
$50 exacta's Firing Line on top of American Pharoah and Dortmund
$20 exacta box Firing Line and Dortmund (so actually have $70 if it comes that way with Firing Line on top - this was my last bet in case AP gets a bad trip or something)
I also played several $10 trifectas and $5 Supers putting Danzig Moon and Divining Rod in the 3rd/4th slots - again, just in case one of the big 3 stumbles or something I have a shot at a score.
Mostly I'm just playing to have action. I can't see a big score here unless the tri's/supers pay more than I think. No reason to think the big 3 won't run well. All 3 can make their own race near the front end, can avoid trouble, etc. The Derby horses who struggle at Pimlico are typically closers who got a fast pace at Churchill and then don't get the same set up at Pimlico. Not the case this year. If anything, the big 3 should control the race more in the Preakness then they did in the Derby. Hopefully it's a great race. Good luck to all.
I don't really have any new insight. If it was a monsoon I would move American Pharoah and Danzig way up and play a 1 way exacta with those 2.
But it looks like a warm day with scattered thunderstorms that only jump from 10% to 40% chance at about 3pm. So the track will be sealed and it may not rain at all before the race. In any case, I had to bet in advance and can't change my tickets anyway. If anything, I may add the above exacta in online wagering at the 11th hour.
The only stand I'm making is that Firing Line will be 1st or 2nd. I think he gets the perfect, comfortable trip, can make his move whenever he wants, and then it will just be if he's good enough to win. If he bounces (some say he's better with a lot of time off between races) then I'm not cashing. I don't have AP/Dortmund exacta boxes.
My plays:
$100 exacta American Pharoah-Firing Line
$50 exacta's Firing Line on top of American Pharoah and Dortmund
$20 exacta box Firing Line and Dortmund (so actually have $70 if it comes that way with Firing Line on top - this was my last bet in case AP gets a bad trip or something)
I also played several $10 trifectas and $5 Supers putting Danzig Moon and Divining Rod in the 3rd/4th slots - again, just in case one of the big 3 stumbles or something I have a shot at a score.
Mostly I'm just playing to have action. I can't see a big score here unless the tri's/supers pay more than I think. No reason to think the big 3 won't run well. All 3 can make their own race near the front end, can avoid trouble, etc. The Derby horses who struggle at Pimlico are typically closers who got a fast pace at Churchill and then don't get the same set up at Pimlico. Not the case this year. If anything, the big 3 should control the race more in the Preakness then they did in the Derby. Hopefully it's a great race. Good luck to all.
Limp Dogg Bizkits
Footballguy
Judge Snails, if I gave you $100 to bet on this, what would I say at the window?
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
6:18 post time
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Man, 10 years ago, I'd be 15 Natty Boes deep in the infield by now. Frigging Gen Y had to ruin BYOB.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I think I may just play a $5 tri 1,2,8 with 1,2,8 with 1,2,3,4,7,8 and just hope they come in 2,8,3 or something.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I'll go with something similar, but will chalk it up underneath, AP should control the money at the top of the ticket.General Malaise said:
2-1-8 straight tri ($15)
2-8-1 straight tri ($15)
2-1-4 straight tri ($5)
2-1-7 straight tri ($5)
2-8-7 straight tri ($5)
2-8-4 straight tri ($5)
$50 total bet
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
here's my P4 ticket. have a stake in a P5 that allows for much more chaos...unfortunately 1st leg 2-1 Fav ran down our 6-1 and that was one of the legs we fanned really wide on. good chance to hit and lose $ if it's super chalky
0.50 Pick-4
1, 5, 7, 9, WT, 2, 4, 5, WT, 1, 4, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, WT, 1
$0.50 Pick-4
1, 5, 7, WT, 2, 5, WT, 1, 9, 11, WT, 1, 2, 8
edit:backup was entered wrong
0.50 Pick-4
1, 5, 7, 9, WT, 2, 4, 5, WT, 1, 4, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, WT, 1
$0.50 Pick-4
1, 5, 7, WT, 2, 5, WT, 1, 9, 11, WT, 1, 2, 8
edit:backup was entered wrong
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Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
pre-Preakness tri
$0.5 Trifecta
# 1,11
WT # 1,4,9,11,12
WT # 1,2,4,6,8,9,10,11,12,14,15
$0.5 Trifecta
# 1,11
WT # 1,4,9,11,12
WT # 1,2,4,6,8,9,10,11,12,14,15
Willie Neslon
Footballguy
Willie Neslon
Footballguy
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Just no pharaoh, hate to see all payouts killed. Hopefully the weather hurts him.
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