What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (2 Viewers)

kodycutter said:
I may have overdone it but I didn't want to be anywhere near this, hopefully I went far enough.   I'm in Meridian MS.  Anything I need to make sure to do in Mississippi?
Click to expand...
Regarding personal safety, you're A-OK in Meridian. The weather should be mostly clear and nice for the duration.

 
Henry Ford said:
Say what? I haven't seen anything that says it will be Cat1 at Jacksonville. 
Click to expand...
Showing in our local news cat 3 as it comes over us  cat 1 over Jacksonville. Jax only about 125 miles from us. Thats why we are subject to the Jags on TV instead of a real team like the Fins. Sorry Bill

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Kal El said:
I see. I guess we'll know in about an hour.
Click to expand...
Explanation from WU

The Air Force hurricane hunter plane in the storm Thursday night found top surface winds near 165 mph on their first pass through the eye near 7:35 pm EDT, but only 140 mph on their second pass through near 9 pm EDT. The pressure stayed nearly constant in the two passes, at 920 and 921 mb, respectively. The reduction in the peak winds is not necessarily a good thing, since the hurricane hunter data showed that the hurricane-force winds of the storm had spread out over a larger area, which will increase the storm surge. In addtion, the fact that Irma maintained its very low pressure may mean the aircraft may have missed sampling the strongest winds of the hurricane.

 
culdeus said:
Explanation from WU

The Air Force hurricane hunter plane in the storm Thursday night found top surface winds near 165 mph on their first pass through the eye near 7:35 pm EDT, but only 140 mph on their second pass through near 9 pm EDT. The pressure stayed nearly constant in the two passes, at 920 and 921 mb, respectively. The reduction in the peak winds is not necessarily a good thing, since the hurricane hunter data showed that the hurricane-force winds of the storm had spread out over a larger area, which will increase the storm surge. In addtion, the fact that Irma maintained its very low pressure may mean the aircraft may have missed sampling the strongest winds of the hurricane.
Click to expand...
ERC maybe?

 
So dumb question.....and a selfish question.  If this thing smacks right into the tip of Florida, isn't that good for dissipation?  

 
The Commish said:
So dumb question.....and a selfish question.  If this thing smacks right into the tip of Florida, isn't that good for dissipation?  
Click to expand...
From what perspective?  Storm surge up the gut of Florida will mean both sides get ruined. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Here is the latest GFS model run. A little bit east of the official forecast track. We are getting pretty consistent model runs that show landfall around Miami, and a path that takes it somewhere between the central part of the state and the east coast. All of which is dangerous for the entire state. Euro in couple of hours or so. Another model, the NAM had a run not long ago that sent Irma on the east side of Miami and then gradually getting pulled out to sea by a stronger trough then previously forecast. This is not a reliable model for tropical storms however. I do wish it would be right this once.

https://i.imgur.com/OB39Wv2.gifv

 
It is looking really bad for us. Just really bad.

My home was built in 2009. Impact windows....one story. All CBS Concrete construction.

I pray we can weather this thing. We have my master closet as our safe room. Please jog east somehow. I realize all the models are making a bee line to us....but the room for error on the cone of uncertainty is wide where it can make landfall. 

That’s all we can hang our hats on right now.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Todem said:
It is looking really bad for us. Just really bad.

My home was built in 2009. Impact windows....one story. All CBS Concrete construction.

I pray we can weather this thing. We have my master closet as our safe room. Please jog east somehow. I realize all the models are making a bee line to us....but the room for error on the cone of uncertainty is wide where it can make landfall. 

That’s all we can hang our hats on right now.
Click to expand...
CBS concrete home should stand - I'd be focused on windows and especially doors.  Exterior and interior.  Keep all interior doors closed unless you're currently going through them.

Obviously flooding will be a concern where you are, too - hopefully it doesn't inundate you guys.   We're rooting for you.  

 
09 new construction home you say?  Don’t think I’ve seen one of those in SW FL.  You in a PUD of some sort?  

 
An update from the Charlotte weather guy that is probably of interest for folks in NC, GA, AL, and TN:  https://t.co/r5VKEnAiqF

Doesn't go back out to sea.  Goes up Florida west of Jax and keeps veering NW.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Quick traffic update for anyone leaving. I'm heading south on 75. Traffic northbound between the Sunshine Skyway Bridge and I-4 is heavy but moving pretty steady. I'm on my way down to Cape Coral to help my parents. I'll let you know how the traffic is as I get further south.

 
Quick traffic update for anyone leaving. I'm heading south on 75. Traffic northbound between the Sunshine Skyway Bridge and I-4 is heavy but moving pretty steady. I'm on my way down to Cape Coral to help my parents. I'll let you know how the traffic is as I get further south.

 
Quick traffic update for anyone leaving. I'm heading south on 75. Traffic northbound between the Sunshine Skyway Bridge and I-4 is heavy but moving pretty steady. I'm on my way down to Cape Coral to help my parents. I'll let you know how the traffic is as I get further south.

 
5am update: winds down to 155 sustained, meaning Irma's now a borderline Cat 4/5 storm, but I think it could strengthen again over the water south of Miami.

 
Quick traffic update for anyone leaving. I'm heading south on 75. Traffic northbound between the Sunshine Skyway Bridge and I-4 is heavy but moving pretty steady. I'm on my way down to Cape Coral to help my parents. I'll let you know how the traffic is as I get further south.

 
This whore is gonna carve a path right up the middle of the state.  Im calling it now, shes gonna pass right over Polk county and the meth in the air will boost her strength a bit.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Kal El said:
5am update: winds down to 155 sustained, meaning Irma's now a borderline Cat 4/5 storm, but I think it could strengthen again over the water south of Miami.
Click to expand...
It's down because it's going through an eyewall replacement cycle. Could restrengthen, but not sure it will before landfall.

 
I found this part of 5 am discussion interesting-

Irma is forecast to remain in a favorable warm water, light shear environment for the next 36-48 h. The intensity guidance shows a slow weakening during this time, but Irma is expected to remain at least a Category 4 hurricane until landfall in Florida. After landfall, a fairly quick decay in maximum winds is expected due to land interaction and increased shear, although Irma's large wind field is likely to still produce hurricane-force winds over a large area. There are two caveats to the intensity forecast. First, some additional weakening could occur during the eyewall replacement, followed by re-intensification as the cycle completes. Second, the ECMWF, UKMET, and NAVGEM forecast a track over or close to the coast of Cuba that is not currently a part of the track forecast. If this occurs, Irma could be weaker than currently forecast along the later parts of the track. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/14. Irma should maintain this general trajectory for the next 24-36 h as it moves along the southwestern side of the subtropical ridge. After that time, the guidance is in good agreement that the ridge should break and allow Irma to turn north-northwestward to northward. There remains some spread between the models on when the turn will occur, with the GFS/Canadian being on the eastern side of the guidance and the UKMET/NAVGEM on the left side. The ECMWF, Florida State Superensemble, and the HFIP Corrected consensus are in the middle of the guidance envelope, and the new track forecast is in best agreement with those models. Overall, the new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast, with minor westward adjustments at 36 and 48 h. 

 
 
Kal El said:
I guessed as much. This isn't going to be pretty.
Click to expand...
Nope. Oddly enough, Andrew suddenly surged back to Cat 5 before landfall. Could happen here, but less likely. 

Regardless, this thing is still frightening. A loss of 10 MPH of sustained winds is nothing when you're talking about numbers like this storm has.

 
Okay I just got off at Jones Loop Road and there's plenty of gas available here. Northbound 75 all the way up to the Skyway Bridge, traffic was heavy but moving steadily. The radio said 75 north of Tampa was bumper to bumper. I cannot verify that. Good luck guys talk to you soon

 
06z GFS has it inline with Euro. But the intensity looks way overcooked. It has the pressure at landfall as 892 mb and pressure for Irma hasn't been measured lower than 915 I think.

 
This is awesome. These hotspots are literally everywhere. I've got 20+ within a quarter mile of my house.

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/timesnews/free-internet-in-florida-comcast-makes-xfinity-wifi-hotspots-free-to-all/2336508

Free internet in Florida: Comcast makes Xfinity wifi hotspots free to all during Hurricane Irma

Cable and internet provider Comcast is offering free internet across Florida through Sept. 15 to help residents and emergency personnel stay connected during Hurricane Irma.

The company is opening its more than 137,000 Xfinity wifi hotspots throughout the state to anyone who needs them, including non-Xfinity customers, it said in a news release on Wednesday.

"For a map of Xfinity WiFi hotspots, which are located both indoors and outdoors in places such as shopping districts, parks and businesses, please visit Xfinity.com/wifi," the release said.

Once in range of a hotspot, select the "xfinitywifi" network name in the list of available networks. Xfinity internet customers can sign in with their usernames and passwords, while non-Xfinity internet subscribers should click "Not an Xfinity Internet Customer."

Non-customers will be able to renew their complimentary sessions every two hours, the company said

Hotspot map. Just enter your address.

 http://hotspots.wifi.xfinity.com/mobile/index.php

 
The cone seems very small considering it looks like a 30 degree turn this thing is going to make. 

If it was going straight and they were forecasting it to wobble, that would be one thing, but does anyone know how they can so accurately predict both the location and magnitude of a turn this big?

What are the unexpected factors that could still make this a harder or shallower turn?

 
Currently listening to a Sam Harris podcast on climate change. Expert CC scientist makes it sound as though South Florida is going to get destroyed.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Mjolnirs
Official 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - Tammy
4 5 6
Replies
297
Views
16K
3C's
3C's
Eephus
***Official WIS Sim XIII Draft Thread - The HoVG
60 61 62
Replies
3K
Views
130K
Hoos First
Hoos First

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Back
Top