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*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Mjolnirs
- Start date
culdeus
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
El Floppo
Footballguy
dammit... sat pic of the two storms... Jose looking really big right now (size-wise).
I don't know where everybody in the leewards is supposed to go to ride Jose out if it stays south enough to hit them again.
I don't know where everybody in the leewards is supposed to go to ride Jose out if it stays south enough to hit them again.
Dedfin
Footballguy
But you completely lifted thatI do have a geoscience background.
I guess I don't get the joke.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Once it gets to us we should only be looking at 75 mph gusts and it shouldn't stick around too long.
Henry Ford
Footballguy
NOAA has updated its hurricane path:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL112017_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/154010_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
Scraping the western side of Florida, coming ashore near Naples it looks like.
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Capella
Footballguy
That sucks but that's not an "RIP Tampa Bay" type situation.
I know people here are trying to help, but writing #### like that is pretty idiotic.
GregR
Footballguy
I copy and pasted. He added an "off the top of my head comment". I was just remarking I do actually have a background in it. But not trying to imply I knew the geology there where I could have dropped that on my own.But you completely lifted that
I guess I don't get the joke.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
msommer
Footballguy
ffldrew
Footballguy
Very true - that wind is going to get broken up having to go all across the land of Florida. Floods may be an issue around Tampa and surrounding barriers - but the winds will lose some of their strength getting across core Florida as well as a scrape across Cuba. No need for RIP's
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Scoresman
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
If the storm truly misses the south coast and stays out over water the remainder of florida is not going to interact with the storm in any meaningful way. It will have plenty of time to get re-organized from any cuba interaction and won't face any dry air in the shear it gets steering it NE putting the NE eyewall contacting Naples, then the west edge of the eye going dead over Tampa bay and St. Pete.
It's as close to an extinction level event as one could imagine.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
This has Disney/Orlando area on the worst side of the storm probably at Category 2/3 when eye gets there.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJOJzRPW4AApiIA.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJOJzRPW4AApiIA.jpg
Kilgore Trout
Footballguy
Lets also keep in mind this is one model run. Mind you, it is a little over 48 hours before landfall. A push back east 30-40 miles changes things. Also, the current Euro actually has a brief landfall on the Cuban coast, which could help keep the strength down before it heads back over open water. The worst of it will still be southern Florida, but points west will get things worse. This run goes to show that you look at the cone when you are 4-5 days out, and not the center line.
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
I live in an area that can lose power often, but not for long in my immediate neighborhood. However, we've had two extended (more than a day) outages in the past 5 or 6 years. After the second time throwing everything out of my fridge/freezer, I got a whole-house Genrac. My home is not large (1,200 sq ft rancher with an unfinished basement). I put in a 17 KV model, which can run my entire house. Propane is not an offered utility here so I also had to bring in tanks, have lines run, etc... It's permitted by both the county and the town I live in and has all inspections.
Anyway, just for reference - I think it ran me $9k or so, beginning to end. I think it was only $1k more to go from essential circuits to running the entire house, so I went with the latter.
The model I have is far from the highest end from a tech standpoint (no controlling app, etc..). I'm having some modifications done in a few weeks (called "shedding") to make it more efficient should I ever have a prolonged outage.
There are obviously more immediate issues right now, but I thought I'd throw this out there for reference moving forward. Feel free to hit me up with any questions.
Dedfin
Footballguy
El Floppo
Footballguy
rustycolts
Footballguy
jamny
Footballguy
My wife brought up the Hemingway House in Key West. They have like 100 cats on the property. I looked them up on FB and they boarded up and have about 10 people holed up inside with supplies for people and cats to ride out the storm. That's crazy! I thought they would have rounded up the cats and evacuated.
Bacon is Delicious
Footballguy
Dedfin
Footballguy
Wingnut
Footballguy
The other day on the news I saw that the owners were thinking the house might not hold up to the winds, and throat they would "go down with the ship" by holing up inside.
Henry Ford
Footballguy
I don't even know how you round up 100 cats and get them inside, much less evacuate. Hearing 100 cats mewl while driving would make me pray for death.
Henry Ford
Footballguy
Not with the cold front over the western gulf right now. That's what turned Katia around.
Kilgore Trout
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
A NE eyewall hit from open water to Naples and a N tracking storm has always been the worst case short of a dead center hit on downtown MIA.
Only thing that could be worse is some sort of complete Cuba eye miss, which is still possible.
El Floppo
Footballguy
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Henry Ford
Footballguy
A family member has been planning on buying property in Naples sometime soon. Guessing this may change his mind.
El Floppo
Footballguy
excellent- that's what I was looking for.
not that I'm wishing this on FL by any means... but in all of the Irma news, I've seen bupkis about Houston and their cleanup/dryout after Harvey. in any normal situation, we'd still be talking about that, and not the next Cat 4/5 storm and the Cat 3/4 right behind it on the same general track (head north you ####er).
El Floppo
Footballguy
or help them get a deal.
no offense meant. fresh money is going to be beneficial down there if this thing hits dead on.
Henry Ford
Footballguy
Nick Vermeil
Footballguy
Put a Team Sky group photo on the wall and this is how I picture culdeus updating his models right now.
rustycolts
Footballguy
There have been several hurricanes that have made landfall around Naples and have traveled similar routes as this one is projected while very destructive not extinction level.Now a direct landfall on Tampa Bay would be massively destructive hope it never happens.
El Floppo
Footballguy
Poke_4_Life
Footballguy
Not from the area but I've visited several times... didn't a hurricane in the early 1900's create John's Pass? The Pass between Clearwater and Treasure Island. Wasn't that also the last major hurricane to hit that area head on?
The Duff Man
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
Here's the accuracy of the models. Euro is +/-60mi 48hrs out.
https://imgur.com/h0jENY5
Irma's eye is roughly 52 miles wide at the moment, and expected to grow short of a Cuba save.
https://imgur.com/h0jENY5
Irma's eye is roughly 52 miles wide at the moment, and expected to grow short of a Cuba save.
rustycolts
Footballguy
GregR
Footballguy
I can give a little bit of the Harvey cleanup perspective. I haven't wanted to post too much on it as Irma's the bigger threat right now.
The bayou flooding and reservoir releases had pretty much cut the west side of the city in half. Couldn't get past Buffalo Bayou for about a 20-mile stretch. As of today, there is another regular street open (Voss), and just yesterday they opened the north-bound lanes only of the Beltway-8 (which is the middle of the 3 highways that loop Houston). The southbound are still being pumped of water and evaluated structurally. I found out this morning from talking to people at the doctor's office there are people afraid to use the opened highway though for fear it may still have some of the collapses that the southbound have.
There's been a lot of volunteering and helping out. Church groups in particular seem to be really pitching in and a lot of homes are being gutted for the flood damage. Local news has a lot of shots of streets where the curbs are just piled with appliances, carpet, furniture, sheet rock, etc, being thrown out.
Buffalo Bayou is still flooded. The water near me had extended about a mile from it I'm guessing. Today I drove as close to it as I could go and the flooded area was down to about 150-200 yards from the Bayou I'd guesstimate.
I haven't seen an update on the rivers south of town, additional flooding along those areas has been one of the big worries and they were sandbagging like mad for days after the storm had moved on.
There is a lot of aid coming in. The schools that can are set to reopen soon. Houston is giving out uniforms and clothing, and will be providing students breakfast, lunch and dinner. Basically doing whatever they can to get the kids back into school. A LOT of schools were impacted in varying amounts, with some completely unusable and others just needing cleanup. Several dozen probably won't be open for the foreseeable future.
For those not directly flooded, life is starting to get a little closer to normal. People are back at work, but traffic is still bad for those who have to travel very far. A resident along that one street I mentioned said it's bumper to bumper starting at about 5 am, and doesn't clear out until the wee hours of the morning.
In The Zone
Footballguy
We've been making the trays for bottled water and have crews working throughout the weekend making more.
The Commish
Footballguy
A generator was on our list of things "to do" in our fixer....it was down the list and haven't gotten to it yetPower going out is my biggest worry. You can't really prepare for it unless you have a generator, which I don't. Ice and coolers only last so long. I'm hoping we get spared as we have in the past...the longest ive been without power on my street was back in 04 during hurricane Jeanne when we lost power for about 8 hours. Other than that I cant remember any lengthy outages during any hurricanes. I have a feeling Irma may knock it out for considerably longer.THIS is what I need to hear
My only question is, how long can we expect to be without power? Oh, and I JUST found out we have 6 others coming to our house (complete with yipping dogs) from down in PBC. The hurricane might be the least of my worries.
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Reports of people with guns and machetes roaming the streets in St. Martin. Soldiers being deployed to restore order. Jose due to hit Sat night :(
Chemical X
Footballguy
a west jog would be worst possible scenario, since the worst rain is usually NE part of storm. so, west fl gets the eye, including keys and the east cities get catastrophic rain and flooding. luckily, it's a red state trump won bigly. you know the blues ain't getting the same support.
